Your Future In Space his final chapter is different from the others, because it is concerned with real space flight, and with some of my own ideas and opinions about the future of space flight, and the future in general. The rest of this manual has been about simulated “playing in space,” T using Orbiter for fun and as a framework to encourage you to explore certain aspects of space flight in a fairly realistic way. If you find this sort of thing to be interesting, and depending on where you are in your schooling or career plans, you might consider doing something that’s connected with real space flight. It could lead to involvement with some of the most interesting and important developments of the next 50 years or so. You could get involved now by joining a space advocacy group. Opinions expressed here about the importance of space for the future of humanity, and on the feasibility of human flights to Mars in the near future, are my own take on various things I have read and thought about. But some aspects of this epilogue were inspired by several writers in particular. The nonfiction writings of Dr. Robert Zubrin and Dr. Raymond Kurzweil, and the writings of science fiction authors Kim Stanley Robinson, John Barnes, Stephen Baxter, and Gregory Benford have been particularly helpful. I will provide references and more detailed credits at the end of this chapter. Mars for Less is a reference mission designed by Grant Bonin for MarsDrive Consortium, a group that is trying to organize other groups and individuals in support of human missions to Mars within the next twenty years. Mars for Less is a variation of Robert Zubrin’s Mars Direct that proposes to make use of existing medium-lift launch vehicles (MLLV) to place modular crew, utility, and propulsion units in low Earth orbit for assembly into complete vehicles for Mars injection. The MarsDrive ships (ERV, top, MTSV, bottom, graphic used with permission) are not (yet) an Orbiter add-on. There is more on MarsDrive and Mars for Less later in this epilogue, and even more at www.MarsDrive.com. Epilogue for Go Play in Space (Second Edition) © 2006 by Bruce Irving and Andy McSorley, All rights reserved Space Is Real hile it’s true that Orbiter is only a space flight simulation and in some respects a game, space is real, and you may have a real future in space. In fact, space may be more important than you Wmay think. What is so important about space? For one thing, space truly is “the final frontier,” and frontiers have been very important in human history. Think about the role of Columbus and other early explorers in discovering the Americas. The discovery of a “new world” previously unknown to the European trading nations of the 1500’s stimulated technology to develop better sailing ships and navigation methods. It created new opportunities for trade and eventually for new places to live, allowing European colonists to escape religious and social oppression, or simply to start a new life. Of course this opportunity came at a cost – it was expensive and risky to cross the Atlantic Ocean in those early days. Those who made it faced many hardships (and the hardships for the native people they encountered were often worse – the treatment of native people by early explorers and settlers was terrible and sad even if we consider that at the time, there was nothing like our modern appreciation of the value of different cultures). The existence of the New World (today’s North and South America) provided new sources and markets for goods and new places to live, but even more importantly, it opened the doors to new ways of thinking about everything. Later (mainly in the 1800’s) the American West became a New Frontier, and the challenges of expanding the United States from coast to coast became another major economic and social driver that created opportunities for many as well as new markets for goods, services, and ideas. Much has been written about the importance of frontiers in the development of the modern nations of Europe and North America. Dr. Robert Zubrin explores these and many other ideas in his books The Case for Mars and Entering Space. These are just a few examples, and while this is not a history book, I believe that one thing that is missing in today’s world is a significant frontier. This is not to say that we lack challenges and problems to solve. We certainly have plenty of those. But some of history’s most productive periods have occurred when there was a frontier to stimulate exploration and new ideas – and to provide focus or direction. This is related to a fundamental human trait – willingness to step out into unfamiliar territory in search of new ideas and opportunities and in spite of the uncertainties of such ventures. Uncertain Future – The future IS uncertain, of course. Thirty years ago, some people believed that there was a “population bomb,” that runaway human population growth would soon outpace our ability to grow food, leading to mass starvation. While there are still tragically bad conditions and even starvation in some regions of the world, it seems that when technology and social efforts lead to better living conditions, populations stabilize over time – people in more developed countries live longer lives, but under better conditions and with fewer children. Population is still a serious issue, but no bomb yet. Of course we still face many risks – global warming and other environmental threats to the Earth’s atmosphere and water; war and terrorism; various diseases, old and new; and a variety of natural disasters ranging from earthquakes and tsunamis to a possible giant asteroid strike. Technology and other human efforts can be used to reduce some of the risks and to help people when they are hurt by these things. Humans are very resourceful and there is reason for optimism in spite of the many challenges we face. But there are still many uncertainties. OK, but what does this have to do with space? I’m getting to that, I promise! But first a case of good news and bad news. Consider the idea of living longer, healthier lives, which seems to be the result of improved nutrition, health care, education, and economic conditions in many parts of the world. Of course this is a good thing. There are some people who believe that molecular biology and medicine may Go Play In Space E-2 Epilogue be close to solving even the basic problems of aging, so that people could eventually have the chance to live much longer but still healthy lives, perhaps 120 years or more as a typical healthy and active lifespan. No one knows for sure yet if this is possible or how far it could go, but many people think it is plausible (some think we could reach this stage in the next 15-25 years, while others think it could happen but may take a hundred years or more to solve the many sub-problems of aging). But think about this – it means that if you were born in 1985, you might still be alive, healthy, and active in 2105. Is this a good thing? Yes and no (yes for you personally, maybe no for society as a whole). While it’s not quite the same as a “population bomb,” consider a population of many millions of healthy 70-to-120-year-old people who in the past would have mostly been retired from their jobs (or in many cases, have died). What will we do with these people? Send them into space? Not quite! My point is that the “good news” of greatly extending the lives of so many people could have unplanned consequences or “bad news” side effects. It could change the nature of our societies, of our working lives, and the nature of the opportunities that young people have. Not only is there no “new frontier” on Earth, but even the idea of a career that progresses over time from entry level to more complex, responsible, and better-paid positions could break down if the senior people remain on the job for many more years because they are still healthy and active and either need to or want to continue working. And this is not even considering the likelihood that we will develop computers and robots with something more similar to human intelligence which (who?) will also compete for some of the jobs that can only be done by humans today (robots already do much of the repetitive factory work that used to be done by people, and the Internet and advanced telecommunications are already changing the nature and distribution of work, entertainment, government, and more, changing every day). Change will continue and accelerate, leading to a very different world in the future – maybe a better world, with chances for multiple careers, continuing education, creative pursuits, and more leisure time. Maybe the problems of a society where long, healthy lifetimes are the norm will take several generations to solve. No one really knows. Of course there are other scenarios too – what if a disease worse in its effects and harder to fight than AIDS becomes an epidemic? What if terrorism becomes more widespread and destructive? These are terrible prospects to consider – people will do everything they can to prevent such things from happening, and they probably will succeed – but maybe not. I’m personally optimistic about the future, and I’m not trying to frighten anyone here.