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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change in Cambodia

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change in Cambodia A C A M B O D I A Climate Change Enabling Activity Project CMB/97/G31 UNDP/GEF Ministry of Environment VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CAMBODIA Cambodia's Country Study Team: Project Steering Committee: H.E. Prach Sun, Chairman National Project Coordinator: Mr. Tin Ponlok National Technical Committee: - H.E. Khieu Muth, Ministry of Environment, Chairman - Mr. Sum Thy, Ministry of Environment - Mr. Heng Chan Thoeun, Ministry of Environment - Mr. Chea Chan Thou, Ministry of Environment - Mr. Uy Kamal, Ministry of Environment - Ms. Peou Vanna, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology - Mr. Va Chanmakaravuth, Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy - Mr. Am Phirum, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries - Mr. You Dara, Ministry of Public Works and Transport - Ms. Va Dany, Royal Phnom Penh University Authors: - Mr. Heng Chan Thoeun, Ministry of Environment (Forestry) - Mr. Chea Chan Thou, Ministry of Environment (Agriculture) - Ms. Peou Vanna, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (Coastal Zone) - Mr. Am Phirum, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Agriculture & Human Health) - Ms. Va Dany, Royal Phnom Penh University (Human Health) - Mr. Yem Dararath, Ministry of Environment (Coastal Zone) - Dr. Rizaldi Boer, Consultant Editors: - Dr. Rizaldi Boer, Consultant - Mr. Tin Ponlok, National Project Coordinator - Ms. Noelle O'Brien, Consultant Phnom Penh, July 2001 Front cover maps and chart: (1) Potential impacts of 1m sea level rise on land use in Koh Kong province (Climate Change Project), (2) Cambodia's Protected Areas System (Ministry of Environment), (3) Contribution of natural hazard to rice production loss in Cambodia (Climate Change Project). B TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------iii LIST OF TABLES---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------v ABBREVIATIONS-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------vi UNITS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- viii PREFACE------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------x I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION---------------------------------------------------------------------1 I.1. References ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CAMBODIA'S CLIMATE ------------------------4 II.1. Introduction -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 II.2. Cambodia's Climate ----------------------------------------------------------------------------4 II.3. Verification of GCM Models -----------------------------------------------------------------8 II.4. Impact of Climate Change on Cambodia's Climate-------------------------------------- 10 II.5. Conclusion and Recommendations -------------------------------------------------------- 20 II.6. References ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 II.7. Appendix -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 III. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR AGRICULTURE ------------------------ 36 III.1. Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 III.2. Climate Variability and Rice Production------------------------------------------------- 37 III.2.1. Agriculture Production in Cambodia ----------------------------------------- 37 III.2.2. Rice Production and Climate Variability------------------------------------- 38 III.2.3. Government Plan for Increasing Rice Production -------------------------- 40 III.3. Vulnerability and Adaptation of Cambodia's Agriculture to Climate Change ------ 41 III.3.1. Methodology --------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 III.3.2. Results of Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------- 44 III.4. Adaptation Options-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 III.5. Conclusion and Recommendations ------------------------------------------------------- 51 III.6. References ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 52 III.7. Appendix ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 53 IV. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR FORESTRY------------------------------ 57 IV.1. Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 57 IV.2. Forest Sector in Cambodia ----------------------------------------------------------------- 58 IV.2.1. Forest Classification of Cambodia -------------------------------------------- 58 IV.2.2. Forest/Plantation Productivity ------------------------------------------------- 59 IV.3. Assessment of Vulnerability of Cambodia's Forest to Climate Change ------------- 60 IV.3.1. Methodology--------------------------------------------------------------------- 60 IV.3.2. Results and Discussion --------------------------------------------------------- 61 IV.4. Adaptation Options-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 66 IV.5. Conclusion and Recommendations ------------------------------------------------------- 66 IV.6. References------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 67 V. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR HUMAN HEALTH --------------------- 68 V.1. Introduction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68 i V.2. Human Diseases in Cambodia-------------------------------------------------------------- 68 V.3. Malaria Incidence and Climate Variability ----------------------------------------------- 70 V.4. Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Incidence in Cambodia------------------------ 73 V.4.1. Methodology---------------------------------------------------------------------- 73 V.4.2. Results and Discussion ---------------------------------------------------------- 74 V.5. Adaptation Options--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 79 V.6. Conclusion and Recommendations -------------------------------------------------------- 79 V.7. References------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 80 V.8. Appendix -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 81 VI. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR COASTAL ZONE----------------------- 84 VI.1. Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 84 VI.2. State of the Coastal Zone------------------------------------------------------------------- 84 VI.2.1. Climate and Soils---------------------------------------------------------------- 84 VI.2.2. Land Use ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 85 VI.2.3. Natural Resources --------------------------------------------------------------- 85 VI.2.4. Protected Areas ------------------------------------------------------------------ 86 VI.2.5. Water Resource and Hydrology ----------------------------------------------- 86 VI.2.6. Population ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 88 VI.3. Assessment of Vulnerability of Coastal Zone to Climate Change ------------------- 88 VI.3.1. Methodology--------------------------------------------------------------------- 88 VI.3.2. Impact of Global Warming ---------------------------------------------------- 89 VI.3.3. Impact of Sea Level Rise in Koh Kong Province--------------------------- 89 VI.3.4. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Salt Farming in Kampot Province and Kep City ----------------------------------------------- 92 VI.3.5. Frequency of Flood and Storm ------------------------------------------------ 93 VI.4. Response Strategies and Adaptation------------------------------------------------------ 94 VI.5. Conclusion and Recommendations ------------------------------------------------------- 95 VI.6. References------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 97 VI.7. Appendix ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 99 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Division of Cambodia According to its Rainfall Pattern Figure 2.2: Relationship between CV and Rainfall Amount Figure 2.3: Mean Annual Temperature at Current Conditions (Mean of 1961-1990), and Degree Change of Mean Annual Temperature for 2025 (Mean of 2011- 2040), 2050 (Mean of 2036-2065) and 2100 (Mean of 2086-2115) Using CCSR GCM Model and Emission Scenario of SRESA2 Figure 2.4: Mean Annual Temperature at Current Conditions (Mean of 1961-1990), and Degree Change of Mean Annual Temperature for 2025 (Mean of 2011-2040), 2050 (Mean of 2036-2065) and 2100 (Mean of 2086-2115) Using CSIRO GCM Model and Emission Scenario of SRESA2 Figure 2.5: Mean Annual Temperature at Current Conditions (Mean of 1961-1990), and Degree Change of Mean Annual Temperature for 2025 (Mean of 2011-2040), 2050 (Mean of 2036-2065) and 2100 (Mean of 2086-2115) Using CCSR GCM Model and Emission Scenario of SRESB1 Figure 2.6: Mean Annual Temperature at Current Conditions (Mean of 1961-1990), and Degree Change of Mean Annual Temperature for
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