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Xev MOBILITY. the RACE IS ON. a TOP COUNTRY INSIGHT

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Xev MOBILITY. the RACE IS ON. a TOP COUNTRY INSIGHT BERYLLS INSIGHTS xEV MOBILITY. THE RACE IS ON. A TOP COUNTRY INSIGHT. By Berylls Strategy Advisors EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. 2019 was not a good year for electric However, in addition to state funding, the mobility. From 2012 to 2018, global sales of charging infrastructure also plays a cen- xEVs (BEVs and PHEVs combined) saw colos- tral role. In Norway and the Netherlands, for sal year-on-year gains, with worldwide annual example, electric recharging points equal or increases typically in excess of 50%. And then outnumber petrol pumps. in 2019, around 2.3m new xEVs were regis- tered – just 5% up on the year before. How- The USA illustrates that the model range ever, electromobility was still able to assert alone plays a subordinate role. While the itself, as total global vehicle sales fell by 4% USA’s range of models is on a par with Nor- (from 93.7 to 89.6 million). way, its infrastructure and subsidies lag far behind. It’s clear that xEV registrations only The key xEV-selling nations highlight how grow substantially if the model range, charg- there’s room for improvement in xEV penetra- ing infrastructure and state subsidies work tion in most markets. Of the five key nations, together. Norway, where xEVs account for approx. 56% of new registrations, is the undisput- OEMs will need to get to more com- ed champion of xEV penetration, with the petitive sale price of electric vehicles, as Netherlands in second place at around government subsidies were only ever intend- 15%. China, with almost 6%, is in third place ed as a short-term measure. In China, for ex- and Germany has caught up well with just ample, a drop in government funding has led under 3%. The USA comes in fifth. to a decline in the number of xEVs sold. In 2019, financial incentives in the form of government subsidies were again the strongest lever for the global increase in xEV sales. xEV SHARE OF NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS – 2019 (in percent, per country) 55.9% 1 100% 14.9% 2 100% 3 5.6% 100% 1 2.9% 4 100% 1 1.9% 2 5 100% 3 Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 2 GLOBAL xEV DEVELOPMENT Globally, new registrations of xEVs (BEVs While new registrations in the United and PHEVs) over the past few years have States and China initially rose very quickly, shown a clear positive trend, with growth growth there has stagnated in recent years rates generally well above 50% from 2012 to and even declined in 2019 (-9% and -4%). 2018. Europe, on the other hand, has seen a strong However, this picture changed in 2019, when increase in recent years (from less than 400k new xEV registrations “only” increased to more than 550k xEV sales) and was the by around 5% (roughly comparable to aver- fastest growing region in 2019 – up by age global automotive market growth in 47% against the previous year. recent decades). To understand this change, it helps to look in more detail at the key e-mobility markets, carefully evaluating new registrations, indi- vidual models, the charging infrastruc- ture and state subsidies. xxEEVV REGISTRATIONS SHAR – 2012-2019 (in thousands, by region) +5% CAGR 2018-2019 +56% 2,259k 2,152k 161k Others +6% 152k 330k USA -9% +80% 361k 1,379k 384k 564k Europe +47% +42% +65% +56% +59% 765k 539k 1,255k 1,204k China -4% 326k 208k 131k 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 3 xEV DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE When we analyze the individual European in new xEV registrations when financial in- countries in detail, the picture that emerges centives were cut at the end of 2013 and 2015.) is extremely heterogeneous. These figures are very promising, but no country can yet claim a sustainable The 2019 growth was driven by certain breakthrough in electromobility. key markets, such as Germany (the largest European market with 105k xEV registra- tions), Norway (the regular top performer in EV penetration, amounting to some 56% of new vehicle sales) and the Netherlands, which in 2019 saw annual growth of almost 150%. (It’s worth noting that, in the case of the Netherlands, there was a sharp decline xxEEVV REGISTRATIONS SHAR – 2018-2019 (in thousands, by country) 2018 2019 +59% 105k +9% +23% 79k +149% 73k 75k +35% 66k 67k 61k 62k 46k 27k DE NO UK NL FR 2.9% 55.9% 3.2% 14.9% 2.8% xEV share of new vehicle registrations in 2019 Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 4 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 1 NORWAY In 2019, the positive trend seen in Norway In addition to attractive subsidies, Norway in previous years continued across all the also stands out with other benefits for elec- actors examined. (See xEV Market Cockpit tric car owners, such as reduced tolls and diagram, below.) parking fees. Norway remains the undisputed champion in The sales figures from early 2020 show the the field of electromobility. In 2019, the num- positive trend continuing – both January and ber of electric car registrations exceeded February 2020 saw more xEVs sold than in combustion engines for the first time, with al- the corresponding month of 2019. However, most 80,000 xEVs – or 56% of the total – sold. the corona crisis will have had an impact in the following months. A key reason is that Norway has a very well-developed charging infrastructure, with its 13,700-plus charging points almost equal- ACQUISITION PRICE GOLF VS. MODEL 3 ing its roughly 14,000 petrol pumps. (in euros, per car) As far as incentives are concerned, the Nor- wegian government intervenes far more VW Golf (ICE): courageously than in other countries. Thanks from 35,280 € to state subsidies, a Tesla Model 3, for ex- ample, starts at around 29k euros, whereas the cheapest Golf costs from around 35k eu- Tesla Model 3 (BEV): ros. No wonder the Norwegians choose an from 28,590 € electric car rather than a combustion engine. xEV MARKET COCKPIT – NORWAY High monetary incentives and infrastructure coverage lead to high xEV adoption NORWAY NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES NEW CAR SALES 55,9% TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD 49,1% A B C D E F #1 Tesla – Model 3 - 16k - #2 VW – eGolf 7k 9k 27% COMPACT #3 Nissan – LEAF 12k 6k -50% E ( ) ( ) L #4 Audi A3 e-tron 1k 5k 354% C 21% I SUV ( ) #5 BMW – i3 6k 5k -15% H 17% #6 Hyundai – Kona - 3k - E 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% V COMPACT ( ) #7 Jaguar – i-Pace 1k 3k 183% Hyundai – Ioniq Electric 3k 3k 20% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 Renault – Zoe 3k 2k -34% +9% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV ( ) #10 Tesla – Model X 5k 2k -60% 73k 79k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E 63% 76% #1 n.a. R 50% n.a. U 37% 24% 49% +14% #2 T #3 n.a. C 14k #4 n.a. U 12k n.a. No R VEHICLE FLEET #5 data 25% HPC a ST 23% #6 n.a. vail (>22kw) abl A #7 n.a. e R n.a. F 9,7% 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% 75% #8 77% N #9 n.a. I 7,7% #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 OTHER #10 n.a. 0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN +32% N O I 2025 T 328k A x L 249k U G >100% BEVs exempt from ferry E 68% 25% VAT tax break % on country-level Proposal to ban ICEs 65% & exemption from charges & road tolls R 0% ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ 100% Access to priority bus lanes by 2025 registration tax and free municipal parking 35% 32% STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS 2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 5 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 2 THE NETHERLANDS The Netherlands has further strengthened vious year, new registrations rose by a good its already powerful position and is leading 50% in February. In March and April, how- Europe in terms of its year-on-year upturn ever, the coronavirus crisis will certainly have of almost 150% in new xEV registrations in had a negative impact on sales. 2019, while the overall market stagnated at around 450k vehicles. The Netherlands illustrates how extensive government support, a courageous expan- As with Norway, the Netherlands offers an sion of the charging infrastructure, and a attractive package, including some 50k public broad model portfolio motivate customers charging points, meaning that more than half to buy increasing numbers of xEVs. the country’s “refuelling” stations are for xEVs. The nation is also a leader when it comes to the range of models. In a quarter of vehicle NEW REGISTRATIONS 2018-2019 segments, there’s already a choice of xEVs. (in thousands, according to drivetrain) However, it remains to be seen whether +1% CAGR the Netherlands will be able to maintain its 444k 446k 2018-2019 strong position if the tax benefits for electric cars are, as planned, gradually reduced from 2021. The aim is to drop the benefits by 4% 417k 380k ICE -9% annually until they reach the standard level in 2026. 27k 67k xEV +149% The first xEV sales figures for 2020 are also 2018 2019 positive in the Netherlands – while sales in January initially fell slightly against the pre- 6.0% 14.9% xEV share of new vehicle registrations in 2019 xEV MARKET COCKPIT – NETHERLANDS Good infrastructure and effective incentives increase xEV adoption NETHERLANDS NEW CAR SALES NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES A B C D E F #1 Tesla – Model 3 - 18k - #2 Hyundai – Kona 1k 5k 740% 14,9% COMPACT #3 Kia – Niro - 3k - E 25% ( ) L #4 Nissan – LEAF 3k 3K -19% C 6,0% 21% I SUV ( ) ( ) #5 VW – e-Golf 2k 3k 15% H #6 BMW – i3 2k 2k 30% E 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% V COMPACT ( ) #7 Mitsubishi – Outlander 1k 2k 150% Hyundai – Ioniq Electric 2k 1k -19% +149% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 Renault – Zoe 1k 1k 16% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV #10 Audi – Q7 e-Tron - 1k - 67k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E 27k 92% #1 n.a.
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