BERYLLS INSIGHTS xEV MOBILITY. THE RACE IS ON. A TOP COUNTRY INSIGHT.
By Berylls Strategy Advisors EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.
2019 was not a good year for electric However, in addition to state funding, the mobility. From 2012 to 2018, global sales of charging infrastructure also plays a cen- xEVs (BEVs and PHEVs combined) saw colos- tral role. In Norway and the Netherlands, for sal year-on-year gains, with worldwide annual example, electric recharging points equal or increases typically in excess of 50%. And then outnumber petrol pumps. in 2019, around 2.3m new xEVs were regis- tered – just 5% up on the year before. How- The USA illustrates that the model range ever, electromobility was still able to assert alone plays a subordinate role. While the itself, as total global vehicle sales fell by 4% USA’s range of models is on a par with Nor- (from 93.7 to 89.6 million). way, its infrastructure and subsidies lag far behind. It’s clear that xEV registrations only The key xEV-selling nations highlight how grow substantially if the model range, charg- there’s room for improvement in xEV penetra- ing infrastructure and state subsidies work tion in most markets. Of the five key nations, together. Norway, where xEVs account for approx. 56% of new registrations, is the undisput- OEMs will need to get to more com- ed champion of xEV penetration, with the petitive sale price of electric vehicles, as Netherlands in second place at around government subsidies were only ever intend- 15%. China, with almost 6%, is in third place ed as a short-term measure. In China, for ex- and Germany has caught up well with just ample, a drop in government funding has led under 3%. The USA comes in fifth. to a decline in the number of xEVs sold.
In 2019, financial incentives in the form of government subsidies were again the strongest lever for the global increase in xEV sales.
xEV SHARE OF NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS – 2019 (in percent, per country)
55.9% 1 100%
14.9% 2 100%
3 5.6% 100% 1 2.9% 4 100% 1 1.9% 2 5 100% 3
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 2 GLOBAL xEV DEVELOPMENT
Globally, new registrations of xEVs (BEVs While new registrations in the United and PHEVs) over the past few years have States and China initially rose very quickly, shown a clear positive trend, with growth growth there has stagnated in recent years rates generally well above 50% from 2012 to and even declined in 2019 (-9% and -4%). 2018. Europe, on the other hand, has seen a strong However, this picture changed in 2019, when increase in recent years (from less than 400k new xEV registrations “only” increased to more than 550k xEV sales) and was the by around 5% (roughly comparable to aver- fastest growing region in 2019 – up by age global automotive market growth in 47% against the previous year. recent decades).
To understand this change, it helps to look in more detail at the key e-mobility markets, carefully evaluating new registrations, indi- vidual models, the charging infrastruc- ture and state subsidies.
xxEEVV REGISTRATIONS SHAR – 2012-2019 (in thousands, by region)
+5% CAGR 2018-2019
+56% 2,259k 2,152k 161k Others +6% 152k 330k USA -9% +80% 361k
1,379k 384k 564k Europe +47% +42% +65% +56% +59% 765k
539k 1,255k 1,204k China -4% 326k 208k 131k
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
3 xEV DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE
When we analyze the individual European in new xEV registrations when financial in- countries in detail, the picture that emerges centives were cut at the end of 2013 and 2015.) is extremely heterogeneous. These figures are very promising, but no country can yet claim a sustainable The 2019 growth was driven by certain breakthrough in electromobility. key markets, such as Germany (the largest European market with 105k xEV registra- tions), Norway (the regular top performer in EV penetration, amounting to some 56% of new vehicle sales) and the Netherlands, which in 2019 saw annual growth of almost 150%. (It’s worth noting that, in the case of the Netherlands, there was a sharp decline
xxEEVV REGISTRATIONS SHAR – 2018-2019 (in thousands, by country)
2018 2019
+59%
105k +9% +23% 79k +149% 73k 75k +35% 66k 67k 61k 62k
46k
27k
DE NO UK NL FR
2.9% 55.9% 3.2% 14.9% 2.8% xEV share of new vehicle registrations in 2019 Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
4 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 1 NORWAY
In 2019, the positive trend seen in Norway In addition to attractive subsidies, Norway in previous years continued across all the also stands out with other benefits for elec- actors examined. (See xEV Market Cockpit tric car owners, such as reduced tolls and diagram, below.) parking fees.
Norway remains the undisputed champion in The sales figures from early 2020 show the the field of electromobility. In 2019, the num- positive trend continuing – both January and ber of electric car registrations exceeded February 2020 saw more xEVs sold than in combustion engines for the first time, with al- the corresponding month of 2019. However, most 80,000 xEVs – or 56% of the total – sold. the corona crisis will have had an impact in the following months. A key reason is that Norway has a very well-developed charging infrastructure, with its 13,700-plus charging points almost equal- ACQUISITION PRICE GOLF VS. MODEL 3 ing its roughly 14,000 petrol pumps. (in euros, per car) As far as incentives are concerned, the Nor- wegian government intervenes far more VW Golf (ICE): courageously than in other countries. Thanks from 35,280 € to state subsidies, a Tesla Model 3, for ex- ample, starts at around 29k euros, whereas the cheapest Golf costs from around 35k eu- Tesla Model 3 (BEV): ros. No wonder the Norwegians choose an from 28,590 € electric car rather than a combustion engine. xEV MARKET COCKPIT – NORWAY High monetary incentives and infrastructure coverage lead to high xEV adoption
NORWAY NEW CAR SALES
TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES NEW CAR SALES 55,9% TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD 49,1% A B C D E F #1 Tesla – Model 3 - 16k - #2 VW – eGolf 7k 9k 27% COMPACT ( ) ( ) #3 Nissan – LEAF 12k 6k -50% E
#4 Audi A3 e-tron 1k 5k 354% C L 21% SUV ( ) #5 BMW – i3 6k 5k -15% H I 17% #6 Hyundai – Kona - 3k - E 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% V COMPACT ( ) #7 Jaguar – i-Pace 1k 3k 183% Hyundai – Ioniq Electric 3k 3k 20% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 Renault – Zoe 3k 2k -34% +9% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV ( ) #10 Tesla – Model X 5k 2k -60% 73k 79k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E
63% 76% #1 n.a. R 50% n.a. 37% 24% 49% +14% #2 T U #3 n.a. C 14k #4 n.a. U 12k n.a. No VEHICLE FLEET #5 data 25% HPC a ST R 23% #6 n.a. vail (>22kw) abl A #7 n.a. e R
n.a. F 9,7% 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% 75% #8 77% N
#9 n.a. I 7,7% #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 OTHER #10 n.a.
0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN
+32% N O
2025 T I 328k A
x L 249k G U
>100% BEVs exempt from ferry E 68% 25% VAT tax break % on country-level Proposal to ban ICEs 65% & exemption from charges & road tolls R 0% ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ 100% Access to priority bus lanes by 2025 registration tax and free municipal parking 35% 32% STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS
2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
5 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 2 THE NETHERLANDS
The Netherlands has further strengthened vious year, new registrations rose by a good its already powerful position and is leading 50% in February. In March and April, how- Europe in terms of its year-on-year upturn ever, the coronavirus crisis will certainly have of almost 150% in new xEV registrations in had a negative impact on sales. 2019, while the overall market stagnated at around 450k vehicles. The Netherlands illustrates how extensive government support, a courageous expan- As with Norway, the Netherlands offers an sion of the charging infrastructure, and a attractive package, including some 50k public broad model portfolio motivate customers charging points, meaning that more than half to buy increasing numbers of xEVs. the country’s “refuelling” stations are for xEVs. The nation is also a leader when it comes to the range of models. In a quarter of vehicle NEW REGISTRATIONS 2018-2019 segments, there’s already a choice of xEVs. (in thousands, according to drivetrain)
However, it remains to be seen whether +1% CAGR the Netherlands will be able to maintain its 444 446 2018-2019 strong position if the tax benefits for electric cars are, as planned, gradually reduced from 2021. The aim is to drop the benefits by 4% 417k 380k CE -9% annually until they reach the standard level in 2026. 27k 67k xEV +149% The first xEV sales figures for 2020 are also 2018 2019 positive in the Netherlands – while sales in January initially fell slightly against the pre- 6.0% 14.9% xEV share of new vehicle registrations in 2019 xEV MARKET COCKPIT – NETHERLANDS Good infrastructure and effective incentives increase xEV adoption
NETHERLANDS NEW CAR SALES
NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES A B C D E F #1 Tesla – Model 3 - 18k - #2 Hyundai – Kona 1k 5k 740%
14,9% E 25% COMPACT ( ) #3 Kia – Niro - 3k - 6,0% 21% #4 Nissan – LEAF 3k 3K -19% C L SUV ( ) ( ) #5 VW – e-Golf 2k 3k 15% H I #6 BMW – i3 2k 2k 30% E 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% V COMPACT ( ) #7 Mitsubishi – Outlander 1k 2k 150% Hyundai – Ioniq Electric 2k 1k -19% +149% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 Renault – Zoe 1k 1k 16% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV #10 Audi – Q7 e-Tron - 1k - 67k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E
27k 92% #1 n.a. R 52% 60% n.a. 89% 11% #2 T U
8% +36% #3 n.a. C 51k #4 n.a. U n.a. No VEHICLE FLEET 37k 2% #5 data HPC a ST R #6 n.a. vail 3% (>22kw) abl A #7 n.a. e R
98% n.a. F 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% 97% #8 N
2,4% #9 n.a. I #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 1,7% OTHER #10 n.a.
0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN
+43% N O
2030 T I 203k 78% A
x L 143k 53% >100% G U 32% Tax break for BEVs All cars must be E 0% 100% >50k and <50g/km emission free by R ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ CO2, reduced tax for 68% 47% STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS 2030 company cars
2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 6 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 3 CHINA
In China, xEV sales fell by 4% in 2019, but this dropped accordingly. Without this factor, the decline was significantly less than the over- Chinese xEV market looked set to grow sus- all drop in the market, which shrank by 10% tainably, since the foundations for xEV pene- against 2018 (21.4 vs. 23.7 million sales). tration are solidly in place.
2019 started off very positively for electro- For example, there were around 500k pub- mobility. Monthly registrations were sig- lic charging points, representing some 33% nificantly higher than in the previous year, of the total Chinese “refueling” network (fuel until the state subsidy halved in June (from and electric combined), in 2019. the equivalent of as much as 6,400 euros to just 3,200 euros). Monthly xEV registrations For 2020, however, the omens are very neg- ative due to COVID-19. In January, total new registrations were around 54% down on the xxEEV REGISTRATIONSV SHAR AND SUBSIDIES– 2018-2019 previous year; in February, they were down (in thousands, by month) by 74%. Hence a relaxation of the registra- 2018 180 tion rules (“type approval” regulations) is 2019 160 again being considered. 140 In the long term, however, it will be interest- 120 xEV su sidy: 6,400€ ing to see whether China continues to pro- 100 mote battery-based mobility, i.e. BEV and 80 PHEV (the funding is currently confirmed 60 xEV su sidy: 3,200€ until 2022), or whether it will turn more 40 to hydrogen fuel cells (FCEV). A hydrogen 20 infrastructure is already being built up in 0 an eb ar Apr ay un ul Aug Sep ct ov Dec an eb ar Apr ay un ul Aug Sep ct ov Dec defined ‘corridors’ within China. xEV MARKET COCKPIT – CHINA Decreased incentives directly impact xEV sales
CHINA NEW CAR SALES
NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES A B C D E F #1 BAIC – EU-Series n.a. 111kn.a. #2 BYD – Yuan S2 n.a. 68kn.a. COMPACT #3 SAIC – Bajoun E-Series n.a. 60kn.a. E 5,6% 17% #4 Chery– eQ 47k 40k-16% C L
5,3% SUV ( ) ( ) ( ) #5 BYD - Tang 35k 34k-3% H I #6 GAC – Aion S n.a. 32kn.a. E 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% 4% V COMPACT ( ) #7 SAIC – Roewe Ei5 n.a. 31kn.a. Tesla – Model 3 n.a. 29kn.a. 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 BYD – e5 44k 29k-33% -4% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV ( ) #10 Geely – Emgrand EV n.a. 29kn.a. 1.255k 1.204k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E
78% 81% R +45% #1 SGCC >30k>300kn.a. EV Power n.a. 21kn.a. 22% #2 T U 19% 33% #3 AnYo Charging n.a. 17kn.a. C 27% 478k #4 Potevio n.a. 14kn.a. U VEHICLE FLEET #5 Shenzhen Car Energy n.a. 10kn.a.
HPC ST R 330k #6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
(>22kw) A #7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 36% 100% R n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. F 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% #8 N
1,3% #9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. I #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 64% 1,0% OTHER #10 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN
+45% N
54% O
2030 T I 3.338k 75% A
x L 2.310k G U
78% Max. subsidy of Electric production E 3.200 for BEVs with quotas for OEMs & R 77% 0% ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ 100% a range of at least proposal to ban ICEs STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS 23% 22% 250km by 2030
2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
7 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 4 GERMANY
In Germany, all the key factors analyzed new car registrations against just 2% in 2018. for 2019 (new registrations, model range, The Germans particularly liked the Renault charging infrastructure and state subsidies) Zoe (9,400 units), BMW i3 (9,100 units) and showed a positive trend. Tesla Model 3 (9,000 units sold).
Particularly noteworthy are new xEV registra- Meanwhile, the German charging infrastruc- tions – these leapt by 59% from 2018 to 2019, ture has been extended and regulation is with electric cars accounting for almost 3% of being introduced to further favor xEVs, with state funding increased from 4,000 to 6,000 euros from November 2019, for which the full effects will only be felt in 2020. In addition, at TOP 10 xEV MODELS IN GERMANY – 2019 the start of 2020, company cars with a price (in thousands) below 40k euros saw tax reduced from 0.5% enault oe 9 4k to 0.25%. Since company cars have account- B i3 BEV 9 1k ed for around two-thirds of German xEV esla odel 3 9 0k sales in recent years, this is another factor itsubishi utlander 7 6k likely to promote electric mobility. V e olf 6 9k ercedes 350e 6 2k In early 2020, the growth trend appeared to smart fortwo electric 5 3k be continuing, with 94% more xEVs sold in B 225xe 5 0k January 2020 than in January 2019. However, B 530e 4 0k the coronavirus crisis will certainly impact on Audi uattro e-tron 3 6k the final German sales figures. xEV MARKET COCKPIT – GERMANY Customers still slightly cautious due to missing infrastructure and xEV vehicle portfolio
GERMANY NEW CAR SALES
NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES A B C D E F #1 Renault – ZOE 6k 9k 48% #2 BMW – i3 BEV 4k 9k 140% COMPACT #3 Tesla – Model 3 - 9k / E 2,9% ( ) ( ) 25% #4 Mitsubishi – Outlander 2k 8k 245% C L
1,9% SUV ( ) #5 VW – E-Golf 6k 7k 20% H I
21% E #6 Mercedes – 350e 2k 6k 281% 0% xEV OF TOTAL SALES 100% V COMPACT ( ) ( ) #7 Smart – fortwo electric 4k 5k 26% BMW – 225xe 5k 5k 2% +59% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 BMW – 530e 2k 4k 113% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV ( ) #10 Audi – e-tron - 4k / 105k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs 66k 57% INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E #1 EnBW Energie BW 0,8k 1,2k 51% R 53% SWM Versorgungs GmbH 0,6k 1k 59%
#2 T U 47% 43% +52% #3 Innogy eMobility Solutions 1k 1k 0% C 24% 40k #4 Charge-ON GmbH 0,8k 1k 27% U VEHICLE F2018LEET 2019 15% #5 EWE Go GmbH 0,8k 1k 41% 17% 26k HPC #6 Stromnetz Hamburg GmbH 0,8k 1k 17% ST R (>22kw) A 13% #7 Allego GmbH 1k 1k 0% R
85% E-WALD GmbH 0,6k 0,6k 10% F 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% #8 87% N 0,6% #9 IONITY AG 0,2k 0,6k 208% I #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 0,4% OTHER #10 Innogy SE 0,2k 0,6k 362%
0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN
+49% 51% N O
2050 T I 289k A
x L 194k 53% G U
>100% E 6.000 EUR for BEV No ann. tax for BEV 100% zero-emission 52% R 0% ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ 100% 4.500 EUR for PHEV vehicles latest 2050 48% 47% STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS
2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
8 xEV SITUATION 2019 – 5 USA
There was a negative trend in the US in 2019. national level. As a result, the basic require- While the number of total new vehicle regis- ments for electric mobility – such as the avail- trations fell by roughly 1% against 2018 (17.3 ability of recharging points – are not being to 17.0 million), xEV registrations dropped by met, which limits customer demand for xEVs. a far more substantial 9%. Around 361,000 xEVs were sold in 2018, falling to fewer than As there is currently no sign of a change in 330,000 vehicles in 2019. political motivation, especially in light of the coronavirus crisis, no significant breakth- Overall, it’s striking that compared to 2018, rough of electromobility in the USA can be hardly anything has changed when it comes expected in 2020. On the contrary, the cur- to the key influencing factors – for example, rently very low oil price further reduces the the prevalence of public charging points as a incentive to switch to xEV. proportion of the total network (fuel pumps and electric charging points combined) is +60% constantly low, at less than 7%. +50% Comparing the adjacent figure of 7% with Chi- +33% +24% na, for example, where publically accessible charging stations account for 33% of the net- +7% work, gives a clear demonstration of the lack of political will in the USA. Electromobility is promoted in individual states, but not at the Share of charging points in the total network
xEV MARKET COCKPIT – USA A lack of infrastructure and nation-wide incentives means xEV uptake is still rather small
USA NEW CAR SALES
NEW CAR SALES TOP 20 PORTFOLIO SPREAD TOP 20 SELLING xEV SEGMENTS TOP 10 xEV SALES A B C D E F #1 Tesla – Model 3 140k 155k 11% #2 Toyota – Prius Prime 28k 24k -14% 2,1% COMPACT ( ) ( ) #3 Tesla – Model X 26k 19k -26% E 21% #4 Chevrolet – Bolt 18k 16k -9% C L
1,9% 17% SUV #5 Tesla – Model S 26k 15k -41% H I #6 Nissan – LEAF 15k 12k -16% E 0% 100% V xEV OF TOTAL SALES COMPACT ( ) ( ) ( ) #7 Honda – Clarity 19k 11k -42% Ford – Fusion Energi 8k 7k -7% 0% % SEGMENTS WITH 100% #8 #9 Chrysler – Pacifica 7k 6k -18% -9% ACCEPTABLE xEV OFFER SUV ( ) ( ) #10 BMW – 5 Series Plug In 9k 5k -37% 361k 330k CHARGE POINTS TOP 10 CPOs 66% INFRASTRUCTURE MATURITY E 74% #1 ChargePoint 28.7k 36.4k 27% R Non-Networked 0.6k 12.8k 2019% 34% 26% +17% #2 T U #3 Tesla Destination 9.0k 10.2k 13% C 79k #4 Tesla Supercharger 5.8k 8.4k 46% U 67k VEHICLE FLEET 7% 17% #5 SemaCharge 2.8k 4.3k 55% 14% HPC #6 Blink 4.1k 2.6k -37% ST R 6% (>43kw) A #7 FLO 0k 2.1k 29500% R
#8 Electrify America 0.3k 1.9k 583% F 0% #CHARGE POINTS/ 100% 86% 83% N
#9 Greenlots 1.3k 1.8k 37% I 0,5% #TOTAL RE-FILLING POINTS1 0,4% OTHER #10 Evgo 2.5k 1.8k -29%
0% xEV OF TOTAL FLEET 100% REGULATION EFFECTIVENESS ONE-TIME SUBSIDY RECURRING SUB. OTHER BENEFITS ICE BAN
+23% N O T I
1.377k A
x x L 1.120k 0% G U
61% E 57% 0% No nationwide No nationwide program program R 0% ONE-TIME SUBSIDY/ 100% 43% 39% STD. BEV PURCHASING COST SURPLUS
2018 2019 BEV PHEV 2 offers ( ) 1 offers No offer
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
9 OUTLOOK 2020.
In contrast to 2019, 2020 is set to be a far change consumer mindsets to focus less more turbulent year with widely varying on sales discounts and more on sustain- effects at a local level. ability issues. What’s needed now is a sustainable approach to combine On the one hand, the global pandemic economic restart with intelligent support for will keep markets and hence the auto- environment-friendly mobility. That approach motive industry in suspense. There are could include purchase incentives by govern- clear hints of a relaxation in CO2 targets ments for EVs but also for the short term for globally – softened license plate regulation ecologically friendly ICEs. in China and CO2 emission standards in the US – which would give ICEs a significant China is leading the world in measures to boost to the detriment of xEV sales. What’s restart the economy with various regional in- more, as the crisis continues to force OEMs itiatives. However, the relaxation of “type to shut down plants and potentially post- approval” regulations for ICE vehicles pone investments and planned start-ups, a has slowed the recovery of the Chinese number of promising new BEV models, such xEV segment. The low cost of petrol and as the Volkswagen ID.3, might be delayed – diesel are another obstacle to xEV recov- which would again negatively impact electro- ery in the world’s most important market. mobility. The German auto industry aims to invest a On the other hand, in the long run, the further 50 billion euros in e-mobility but un- CO2 targets and penalties planned for less buyers return to the market, the funds Europe will have to be implemented to won’t be available. Paradoxically, therefore, reach long-term ecological targets. Further- subsidies for efficient ICE-powered ve- more, the significant investments in EVs and hicles could benefit e-mobility and the EV technology by OEMs and suppliers must environment in the longer term. Deci- be monetized as soon as possible to keep sions need to be made fast, as by autumn the up liquidity and ROIs. So, many OEMs will delicate progress of e-mobility in Germany be motivated to find ways to offer their could be damaged. EV portfolio at highly attractive prices/ Where does this leave us in terms of time- packages – helped by cost reduction de- lines for xEVs? Will Germany’s goal of 1 million velopments in battery development. It’s also units by 2022 be reached? Is Boris Johnson’s worth keeping in mind that Tesla is prepar- plan to ban ICE new car registrations by 2035 ing to offer a small car from 2021 at a price at all realistic? We live in the most unpre- equivalent to a comparable combustion dictable of times and reaching even 70% or engine. 80% of these targets would be a success The first figures for 2020 give some interest- story. ing early indications. Globally, xEV regis- Subsidies and incentives on EV purchases will trations in January 2020 dropped 7% help but they won’t be enough to make the against 2019, a decline best explained by the general public embrace EVs as a viable and rapid drop in registrations in China as a likeable form of transport. That requires a result of the corona crisis. However, if you look huge shift in public perception, a widespread at the January sales figuresin Europe, a posi- belief that now is the time for change. The tive picture emerges, with new xEV regis- current crisis could be a one-off window trations rising more than 120% against the of opportunity and governments would previous year – although there’s little doubt be well advised to use it. that a different trend will emerge in the follow- ing months, despite the fact that the most Only one thing can be predicted with confi- interesting EV models are still to come. dence: 2020 will be characterized by in- creased uncertainty for everyone, from How, exactly, the corona crisis will OEMs to suppliers to investors, requiring affect xEV sales in the short term is im- the automotive industry to question and possible to predict. In the longer term, re-evaluate its 2020 goals. it could well have a positive impact, as our glimpse of a cleaner world might well
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