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The Electric Vehicle Inflection Tracker: 2020 Edition

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The Electric Vehicle Inflection Tracker: 2020 Edition EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FUTURE ENERGY FOR MOBILITY The Electric Vehicle Inflection Tracker: 2020 Edition Lead Analyst: Christopher Robinson Senior Analyst Average WLTP-equivalent range (km) 450 400 350 Hatchback Executive Summary 300 Sedan 250 Electric vehicles are a crucial tool for automakers to 200 SUV reduce fleet emissions. Although to date they represent 150 MPV only a few percent of overall vehicle sales, automakers 100 Utility Van have made significant progress in addressing key pain 50 points for consumers considering buying a battery electric 0 vehicle (BEV). • The average BEV MSRP declined to $33,901 in 2019 compared to $42,189 in 2016. Average MSRP (USD) • The average BEV’s range has consistently increased at $90,000 13.7% CAGR since 2011 to reach 370 km (230 miles) $75,000 in 2019. $60,000 Hatchback • The average BEV increases long-distance travel time by Sedan 22% when accounting for time spent charging. $45,000 $30,000 SUV In the future, expect automakers to focus on improving MPV efficiency as a way to improve charging speed and $15,000 minimize the size of the battery. Utility Van $- 2 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. In the past decade, sales of all types of electrified powertrains have grown steadily The automotive industry is under pressure to reduce Cumulative electrified powertrain sales emissions. Whether from governments that are Millions of units (since 2011) placing limits on the amount of emissions from 16 vehicles or consumers who are more conscious of the environmental impacts of their choices, 14 automakers can’t ignore a push to reduce 12 emissions. 10 In response to this challenge, electrified powertrains 8 are a promising avenue to reducing or eliminating emissions from vehicles. Electrified powertrains 6 make up a range of options, including lower-cost 4 hybrid vehicles (HEVs), which use a battery to harness energy normally lost during braking, battery 2 electric vehicles (BEVs), which are solely powered 0 by electricity, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 can be used in both ways. Among these 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 powertrains, BEVs are seeing the most significant HEV PHEV BEV growth and are the primary focus of the full report. 3 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION Key Planned Models Key Targets 2019 sales: 10.7 million 2020 Toyota Mirai (FCEV) • Releasing six BEVs by 2026 Lexus UX 300e • Aiming for 50% of its global sales to come from HEV, PHEV, Future electrification strategy: or BEV powertrains Toyota’s plan for offering low-emission vehicles has been to 2021 build and sell hybrids until its fuel cell technology is ready. However, as BEV sales have accelerated and Toyota’s FCV Battery Strategy sales have remained low, it is forced to offer electric vehicles. 2022 • Toyota has manufactured its Its commitments are significantly lower than those of its hybrid batteries through a peers – releasing six BEVs by 2025. joint venture with Panasonic, It aims for half its vehicle sales to be “electrified” by 2025, but higher volumes of but that likely will be mostly HEVs. Its Prius Prime is one of 2023 batteries required for BEVs the most popular PHEVs to date, and the company will likely have led the company to sign deploy those powertrains to other models in its lineup as it supply agreements with CATL did with hybrid powertrain technology. • Toyota’s solid-state battery Key Investments and Partnerships Platform approach: program remains one of the world’s best, and a joint Joint venture partner for The few BEVs Toyota is planning will be built on a ground-up manufacturing hybrid and venture signed with Panasonic BEV platform with Subaru dubbed e-TNGA (electric Toyota future BEV batteries indicates that Toyota is looking New Global Architecture), which, like its peers, will be to manufacture these batteries modular to allow for various motor (80 kW to 150 kW, or 300 Partnered with MIT and as well Stanford to apply materials kW for dual-motor versions) and battery (50 kWh to 100 informatics to emerging kWh) configurations. Like most manufacturers, Toyota is first battery materials focused on selling vehicles in China and Japan before expanding to other geographies. 4 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. FORD MOTOR COMPANY Key Planned Models Key Targets 2020 • 40 electrified vehicles and 16 2019 sales: 5.1 million BEVs released by 2022 • Release at least one BEV in Future electrification strategy: Europe using VW’s MEB Although its electric vehicle portfolio has lagged to date, Ford 2021 Ford Transit electric platform by 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E (GE2) has an aggressive electrification plan. It is now committing $11 billion to bring 40 hybrid and electric vehicles, including Battery Strategy 16 BEVs, to market by 2022. Given that Ford’s lineup 2022 Ford electric pickup • Ford has used LG Chem for features mostly large vehicles like trucks and SUVs, the Lincoln SUV (Rivian) BEV batteries, and for the company is expected to mostly hybridize those vehicles. upcoming Transit electric and Platform approach: Mustang Mach-E, LG Chem 2023 European BEV (MEB) installed dedicated production Ford heavily modified its C-segment platform for its first lines in its Poland dedicated BEV, the Mustang Mach E, which hit is calling manufacturing facility global electrified 2 (GE2). However, the company is also • Ford hasn’t invested in cobalt leveraging platform expertise of its partners in future plans. Key Investments and Partnerships or lithium supplies as other Starting in 2023, Ford will begin using the MEB platform from automakers have but does VW as part of a wide-ranging partnership including Invested $500 million in EV partner with IBM and its autonomous driving and electric vehicle development. It also startup Rivian battery supply chain to use announced that Lincoln’s first electric vehicle, an SUV likely blockchain to ensure it uses to be released in 2022, will use Rivian’s platform. Invested in solid-state responsibly sourced cobalt in battery startup Solid Power its BEVs 5 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Lux’s Electric Vehicle Inflection Tracker focuses on changes in key metrics as a leading indicator of adoption Although numerous studies suggest many consumers are open to considering a plug-in vehicle for their next purchase, today, these vehicles remain less than 5% of overall sales. Those hesitant often cite concerns like limited range, slow charging, and the higher price tag. Lux’s Electric Vehicle Inflection Tracker quantifies trends in key concerns cited by potential BEV buyers. Specifically, we consider trends in the number of models available, average range and price, and the impact of fast charging on a BEV’s ability to drive long distances. Global BEV sales data was used from Lux’s Automotive Battery Tracker. To remove high-priced outliers, we limited this analysis to models that sold more than 1,000 units per year. We also segment the data in two different ways: • Regional: China remains the largest market for plug-in vehicles and has a unique BEV ecosystem where models tend to be cheaper than in other markets. In some plots, we differentiate between vehicles designed and sold exclusively in China (China-specific) and those sold globally (Global). • Averages: When discussing price and range, we include averages among all vehicles available to consumers (nonweighted) as well as an average weighted by how many vehicles each model sold (weighted). 6 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. 2019 Average MSRP (USD) BEV INFLECTION POINTS $90,000.00 Price vs. range $80,000.00 Data Highlights: • The ten models which provide the lowest cost per range are all $70,000.00 China-specific models, led by the GAC Aion S $60,000.00 • The Tesla Model S’s high price tag is justified with a leading WLTP-converted range of 683 km $50,000.00 Additional Context: Price and range are at the forefront of man consumers minds, in $40,000.00 were major factors in the excitement around the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 launches. Today some automakers fare better than $30,000.00 others in delivering long-range at a low price, something vehicles sold in China have done better than those sold globally. $20,000.00 Outlook: $10,000.00 The bottom right quadrant and upper right quadrant are expected to populate first as more automakers strive to compete with the $0.00 Tesla Model 3, Nissan Leaf, and other low-cost vehicles. As 0 200 400 600 800 automakers are expected to electrify higher-priced brands first to WLTP range (km) focus on profitability, the upper right quadrant of vehicles with both long range and higher price tags should see the most growth. Hatchback Sedan SUV MPV Utility Van The full list of data, including specific model names, 7 can be downloaded at the “PPT Slides & Data” tab at Client confidential. Not for redistribution. the top of the screen. 2019 Average WLTP range km BEV INFLECTION POINTS 800 Efficiency 700 Data Highlights: • The Hyundai Ioniq EV is the most efficient vehicle, requiring 600 less than 0.1 kWh to travel 1 km, while the Audi E-tron is the least efficient passenger vehicle, requiring 0.32 kWh/km 500 • On average, every kWh of battery capacity adds 6.1 km of range 400 Additional Context: Efficiency is correlated with vehicle type, as eight of the 10 most 300 efficient models are hatchbacks, and on average, hatchbacks are 16% more efficient than SUVs. 200 Outlook: Automakers haven’t placed a great emphasis on efficiency, but 100 poor range results from Tesla competitors such as the Jaguar I- Pace, Porsche Taycan, and Audi E-tron will likely spur interest in 0 this area.
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