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Nevs in Shanghai Auto Show Spark the Future of China Auto

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Nevs in Shanghai Auto Show Spark the Future of China Auto 股 票 Research 研 究 Equity Sector[Table_BasicInfo] Report: Automobiles & Components Sector Toliver Ma 马守彰 行业报告： 汽车及零部件行业 (852) 2509 5317 [email protected] 23 April 2019 [Table_MainInfo] NEVs in Shanghai Auto Show Spark the Future of China Auto 行 上海车展的新能源汽车引领中国汽车的未来 业 Strong new energy vehicle (NEV) development in 2019 onwards. At this 报 year's Shanghai Auto Show (the "Auto Show") we witnessed numerous new Rating:[Table_InvestInfo] Neutral NEVs to be offered in 2019, ranging from the Beijing Benz EQC and FAW Maintained 告 Audi Q2L e-tron from the premium segment to the ORA R1 and BYD e2 in Sector Report the lower-end segment. There will be regulatory push from the government, 评级： 中性(维持) urging OEMs to produce NEVs. Emerging brands gained a lot of attention 2 during the Auto Show, showcasing their first commercial models. These brands face two main problems: 1) production difficulties and 2) profitability China Auto Sales and cash flow. 中国汽车销售 The NDRC is mulling more policies to stimulate the auto market. The leaked proposal includes to relax control over licence plates. Currently there are seven cities in China applying control over licence to curb congestion and air pollution. We are cautious on the feasibility and effectiveness of such plans, as relaxing licence quota by 50% and 100% would only increase 1.2% and 2.2% of auto sales, but would worsen the other problems with little 证 improvement in social wellbeing. 告 券 Maintain "Neutral" rating for the sector. We are expecting full-year auto 研 报 sales growth to be in a range of 0-3%, as supported by government stimulus 究 究 and the stabilizing economy. We believe that stock performance has overreacted to the unconfirmed proposal as have overestimated the impact Research Report 报 研 towards the auto market. Our top pick remains Geely Auto (00175 HK) with a Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. 告 "Buy" rating. Stock price exceeded our TP, we suggest to take profit for 券 Equity short-term investors. HK-listed OEM 52-week Performance 证 2019 年开始强劲的新能源汽车发展。在今年的上海车展上，我们见证了 2019 年推出的众 香港上市汽车制造商 52 周表现 多新款新能源汽车，从高端的北京奔驰 EQC 和一汽奥迪 Q2L e-tron 到低端的 ORA R1 和 BYD e2。政府的监管推动将驱使汽车制造商生产新能源汽车。造车新势力在车展期间引 HK-listed Auto OEM Index 起了广泛关注，展示了他们的第一款量产车型。这些品牌将面临两个主要问题：1）生产 10.0% 困难和 2）盈利能力和现金流。 5.0% [ 0.0% -5.0% T 国家发改委正在考虑更多刺激汽车市场的政策。泄露的提案包括放宽对牌照的控制。目前， -10.0% 中国有七个城市实施限牌，以遏制交通拥堵和空气污染。我们对此放松措施的可行性和有 -15.0% a -20.0% 汽 效性持谨慎态度，因为放松 50%和 100%的牌照配额只会增加 1.2%和 2.2%的汽车销售， -25.0% b -30.0% 但会使其他问题恶化，而社会福祉几乎没有显著改善。 车 -35.0% 及l -40.0% 维持行业评级为“中性”。在政府刺激措施和稳定经济的支持下，我们预计全年汽车销售 Jul 18 Jul Oct 18 Oct Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr Jun 18 Jun 19 Jan Mar 19 Mar 零 19 Feb Aug 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Dec e 18 May 增长将在 0-3%的范围内。我们认为股票表现对未经证实的提案反应过度，并高估了对汽 部 Components Sector Components 车市场的影响。我们的首选股仍为吉利汽车（00175 HK），评级为“买入”。其股价已 _ Source: Bloomberg. 件 超过我们的目标价，我们建议短线投资者先行获利。 行L 业e f [Table_CompanyFinance]Company Name Code Price Rating 18PER 19PER 20PER 19ROE 19PBR 19Yield 股价 净资产收益 公司名称 编号 投资评级 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 市净率(x) 股息率(%) Automobiles & (HK$) (%) t Geely Auto 00175 HK 18.12 Buy 11.4 9.7 8.7 28.0 2.4 2.9 M Dongfeng Motor Group 00489 HK 8.54 Reduce 5.0 5.1 4.8 9.6 0.4 3.2 Brilliance China 01114 HK 9.59 Accumulate 7.3 5.3 4.4 22.8 1.1 2.8 a Nexteer 01316 HK 12.78 Buy 10.8 10.6 9.8 21.1 2.1 1.9 BAIC Motor 01958 HK 6.27 Neutral 10.0 8.0 6.4 10.4 0.8 4.2 r Guangzhou Automobile Group 02238 HK 10.02 Accumulate 8.2 7.7 7.4 14.1 1.0 4.6 g Great Wall Motor 02333 HK 6.97 Reduce 10.7 10.2 10.1 9.4 0.9 4.5 Xiezhong International 03663 HK 1.77 Accumulate n.a. 12.1 8.3 12.1 1.4 2.4 i Sinotruk 03808 HK 18.72 Buy 10.4 9.9 9.1 16.5 1.6 4.9 n Weighted Average.市值加权平均 9.4 8.4 7.7 17.9 1.4 3.6 Source: the Companies, Guotai Junan International, Bloomberg. ] Se e the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 15 P [Table_PageHeader]Automobiles & Components Sector [ Table of Contents T A NEW ERA FOR NEVs ....................................................................................................................................... 3 a b EMERGING BRANDS ........................................................................................................................................ 3 l e _ PREMIUM BRAND NEVs ................................................................................................................................... 5 M a April 2019 Mercedes Benz ................................................................................................................................................ 5 r 3 g 2 BMW ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 i n Audi .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 1 ] Tesla................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Polestar ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 NEVs - SELF-OWNED BRANDS ....................................................................................................................... 8 Geely Auto ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Great Wall Motor - ORA ................................................................................................................................... 9 BYD .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 GAC TRUMPCHI ........................................................................................................................................... 10 NEV NEW POLICIES ....................................................................................................................................... 10 [ NEW SUBSIDY .............................................................................................................................................. 10 T a NEV RUMOURED TO BE GETTING NEW STIMULUS AGAIN ................................................................... 12 b l 汽车及零部件行 IS IT POSSIBLE TO RELAX CONTROL ON LICENCE PLATES? ............................................................... 13 e _ INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 14 M a r g i n 2 ] Automobiles & ComponentsSector 业 Report Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 15 P [Table_PageHeader]Automobiles & Components Sector [ A NEW ERA FOR NEVs T a b 2019 will be an important year of NEV development. On the regulatory front, the push from the government through the l e NEV credit scheme and corporate average fuel credit (CAFC) will guide the market to produce more NEVs. As a result, NEVs _ took central stage in the recent Shanghai Auto Show. Currently, the NEV market is mainly filled with domestic brands, with M over 90% of the NEV market in China from self-owned brands in which BYD and BJEV have the most market share. However, a April 2019 r 3 we noticed that a lot of foreign brands will launch their first NEVs in 2019 in order to cope with regulatory requirements and g 2 also to make a presence in this mega trend in China. We should expect more NEVs in the future in the low to high-end i segments, as automakers have already started or will start to produce NEVs in their latest modular platforms specially n 1 designed for electric cars (see Table-1). In this report, we will summarize and discuss some of the key highlights of the ] Shanghai Auto Show (the "Auto Show") by segment, from new start-ups to premium brands and domestic brands. Table-1: Summary of Key OEM Modular Platforms for NEVs Brands Platform Remarks Based on MQB architecture, MEB are able to build NEV with driving range of 250km to Volkswagen MEB 500km. Volkswagen could launch new NEV brands such as BUDD-e, I.D concept, I.D. Buzz etc, by 2020. BMW FSAR Brand new i5 will be built under FSAR, and expected to be key platform to fulfil its 2025 strategy of developing 25 NEVs. The pure electric brand, EQ will be based on EVA. This platform is based on MRA Mercedes Benz EVA platform, with ability of equipping 377kg battery module. Co-developed by Geely and Volvo, PMA platform is expected to develop approximately [ Geely PMA 10 NEV models between Geely and Lynk and Co brands. This would be the major steps T towards "Geely Blue initiatives" and Volvo's Electrification Strategy. a b l BYD e-platform BYD's latest platform for NEV, models built under this platform includes e1, e2 and S2. e 汽车及零部件行 _ M The first pure electric platform was in 2017, crafting the GE3 SUV. Meanwhile, the GAC (Trumpchi) Gac Electric Platform second generation will be in service in 2019, which will be able to build five-seat a toseven-seat SUVs. Trumpchi has plans to roll out two brand new NEVs per year. r g i The NEV platform will be deployed for its ORA brand, focusing on electric vehicles. Great Wall Motor ME Currently, model iQ, R1 and R2 has been publicly launched. n 2 Source: the Companies, Guotai Junan International. ] Automobiles & ComponentsSector 业 EMERGING BRANDS The market is set for growth, joined by new players. At this year’s Shanghai Auto Show, emerging brands were the focal point
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