How Policies Driven China NEV Market?
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Electrification How policies driven China NEV market? Lancy Zhang, Powertrain and NEV LMC Webinar 8th October, 2020 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Outline • NEV Definition • Government Policy and Regulations • NEV Market Status • Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 2 NEV definition ▪ Different definitions to NEV between the China government and LMC ❖ BEV: battery electric vehicle ❖ PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle Plug-in Geely Kandi BAIC EU260 BYD Qin SAIC Roewe 550 ❖ EREV: extended range electric vehicle ❖ PFCEV: fuel cell electric vehicle Lixiang One Honda Clarity ❖ MHEV: mild hybrid electric vehicle ❖ FHEV: full hybrid electric vehicle Non-plug Nissan Murano Lexus ES Toyota Carolla Beyond China government’s definition to NEV © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 3 Government Policy_Subsidy ▪ Subsidy will extend to 2022, but the amount will decrease slightly 0,000 RMB 6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 1.4 2017 2018 2019 1.2 5 1 4 0.8 3 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0 PHEV ≥50 100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 400 ≥ 400 90 - 105 105 - 125 125 - 140 140 - 160 ≥ 160 BEV Range (Km) Energy Density (Wh/Kg) Battery- Purchase Note: Swapped Tax Free - 23rd Apr to 22nd Jul 2020 is the Year 2020 2021 2022 Vehicles interim period 300,000 - subsidy only available for Decrease 10% 20% 30% vehicle’s price below 300,000 RMB RMB, except for battery- swapped vehicles © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 4 Government Policy_Local Government ▪ Local governments offer some incentives on NEV since COVID-19 outbreak 25.03.2020/Beijing: 27.05.2020/Shaanxi: 10,000RMB per vehicle 6,000RMB per vehicle Add 20,000NEV car plates 09.04.2020/Ningbo: 10,000RMB per vehicle 23.04.2020/Shanghai: 5,000RMB for charging fee 03.03.2020/Guangzhou: 10,000RMB per vehicle 09.04.2020/Shenzhen: 08.05.2020/Hainan: 10,000RMB per vehicle 10,000RMB per vehicle © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 8 Revised Dual-Credit regulation published ▪ Change of test procedure China Automotive Testing Standard Import Schedule Before 2025 After 2025 Gasoline Type Light Vehicle All types (CVW≤3.5t) Diesel WLTC Fuel consumption • Gasoline/Diesel • TCAFC will adjust Hybrid Vehicles WLTC Gaseous • Alternative fuel Vehicle CLTC according to WLTC • BEV CLTC • Fuel Cell Vehicles Plug-in hybrid Fuel consumption WLTC Electric consumption Fuel type Ratio WLTC/NEDC* Pure electric range Non plug-in hybrid Gasoline 1.22 Diesel 1.20 LPG 1.16 BEV Electric consumption Gas 1.36 CLTC Range HEV gasoline 1.32 FCEV HEV diesel 1.34 PHEV 1.00 After 2025, all vehicle types will change to CLTC Source: *Stefanos Tsiakmakis etc.. From NEDC to WLTP: effect on the type-approval CO2 emissions of light-duty vehicles © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 10 Revised Dual-Credit regulation published ▪ Flexible relationship between NEV credits carry-forward and ICE’s CAFC year +1 year +2 year +3 year +4 2019 NEV positive credit 100% 50% off 50% off 2020 NEV positive credit 50% off 50% off 50% off 퐼퐶퐸 퐶퐴퐹퐶 ≤ 123% 2021 or after 푆퐶퐴퐹퐶 NEV positive credit 50% off 50% off 50% off Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 12 Revised Dual-Credit regulation published ▪ a) New NEV quota is set for 2021-2023 ▪ b) Standard credit per vehicle is declined ▪ c) New concept, LFC, is proposed previous new Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 required quota 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% BEV 0.012*R+0.8 0.0056*R+0.4 Standard credit per vehicle PHEV 2.0 1.6 FCEV 0.16*P 0.08*P Low Fuel Consumption (LFC) Vehicle - 0.5 0.3 0.2 Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 13 What is LFCs Fuel Consumption Target Value 2021 LFC condition(123%) 2022 LFC condition(120%) 2023 LFC condition(115%) L/100km 9.00 LFC Assessment requirement: Comprehensive fuel consumption ≤ Vehicle target value x Annual compliance requirement 8.00 7.00 T=6.57 6.00 5.00 T=4.02 4.00 3.00 Curb Mass (kg) 1090 2510 Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 14 What is LFCs ▪ LFCs has coefficient bonus when calculating the output ▪ It gives OEMs more options in powertrain fitment not only focusing on pure electricity ▪ Japanese OEMs will benefit from it as their have LFCs L/100km 9.00 2021 2022 2023 8.08 8.00 7.73 6.95 7.00 6.00 5.85 5.51 Odyssey HEV 5.17 5.00 Camry HEV Corolla HEV Accord HEV Crider HEV 4.00 1090 1350 1500 2000 2350 2510 kg © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 15 What will be the impact by LFC? ▪ For example NEV Credit NEV Actual NEV Standard Credit Credit Credit per NEV Total NEV Standard ICE Total NEV Vehicle Volume Percentage Volume ICE LFC *0.5 Version 1.0 Version 2.0 ICE 30,000 30,000 Low fuel consumption* 20,000 20,000 NEV Percentage 14% 14% NEV Standard Credit (30,000+20,000)*10%=5,000 (30,000+20,000*0.5)*10%=4000 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 16 CAFC performance ▪ CAFC has met the target, but there is still lots of pressure in the following years L/100km CAFC with NEV bonus* CAFC without NEV** 7.5 6.88 6.78 6.62 6.48 6 6.43 6.05 5.8 5.56 4.60 4.5 3 1.5 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 Target T CAFC credit = (TCAFC – CAFC) * output Year CAFC Multiple of vehicle/Wi L/100km ➢ TCAFC target is becoming smaller 2019 5.5 3.0 ➢ CAFC is becoming bigger due to W 푁 i 2020 5.0 2.0 σ 퐹퐶푖 × 푉푖 퐶퐴퐹퐶 = 푖=1 bonus coefficient 2021 4.9 2.0 σ푁 smaller 푖=1 푉푖 × 푾풊 2022 4.8 1.8 2023 4.6 1.6 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 17 Some major OEMs CAFC performance ▪ The more NEV share, the better CAFC performance 2017 2018 2019 Geely SAIC SAIC SAIC Geely GAC FAW-VW Brilliance BWM Brilliance BWM Brilliance BWM GAC-Toyota GAC-Toyota SGM FAW-VW Great Wall FAW-Toyota FAW-Toyota FAW-Toyota SVW SVW Geely GAC-Toyota Great Wall GAC-Honda Beijing-Benz Beijing-Benz DF-Honda DF-Honda DF-Honda SVW GAC-Honda GAC Beijing-Benz GAC GAC-Honda FAW-VW Great Wall SGM SGM Positive credit: Actual value < standard value Data source: MIIT LMC Automotive © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 18 NEV credit performance ▪ NEV credit is surplus, but will decrease sharply under new regulation NEV credit per vehicle Actual NEV quota 4.20 4.10 22.8% units 3.60 20.2% 3.00 2.90 16.5% 2020 target 12% 6.8% 4.1% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug) 2016 2017 2018 20192020 (Jan-Aug) units under previous policy under new policy 8 6 4 2 0 Tesla Model3 standard BYD Han Luxury NIO ES8 2020 415KM NIO ES6 2020 430KM Trumpchi Aion S Buick Velite6 range performance © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 19 NEV market saw 29% decline in Q2 ▪ Q2 market improved greatly from Q1, but demand was still at a low level 180 500% 160 400% 140 -24.0% 28.7% Thousands 120 -30.8% 300% 23% EREV 100 -32.4% -47.0% -45.7% 200% 80 PHEV 60 -71.9% 100% BEV 40 0% YoY 20 0 -100% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Feb-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 180 160 140 120 2017 Thousands 100 2018 80 2019 60 40 2020 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 21 NEV sales decline by major segment and OEMs NEV sales (Thousand) -49% -64% -39% -55% 118% BEV sales (Thousand) PHEV sales (Thousand) -54% -70% -85% -42% -37% -93% -71% -13% -55% -23% -39% -8% © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 22 Data source: CAAM, source: Data © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Reserved. Rights All2020 © AutomotiveLimited, LMC Global brands sales keep rising in NEV sector NEV brands sales keep rising in Global ▪ 100.0% 100.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 0.0% 0.0% Global brands starting to taking more and more share in NEV market NEV in share more and more taking to starting brands Global 201801 LMC Automotive LMC 201802 201803 201804 201805 201806 201807 201808 201809 201810 201811 201812 201901 201902 201903 BEV PHEV 201904 201905 201906 201907 201908 201909 201910 201911 201912 202001 202002 202003 202004 202005 202006 202007 202008 CN EU JP KR US 23 NEV market: a volatile environment continues… ▪ New start-up companies facing more direct competition from Tesla ▪ Meanwhile Tesla is struggling with disruption of supply chain due to low local content rate. NIO Xpeng Weltmeister Model 3 (domestic) NIO share Xpeng share Weltmeister share Model 3 (domestic) share 16 25.0% 14 21.0% 12 Thousands 17.0% 10 13.0% 8 9.0% 6 5.0% 4 2 1.0% 0 -3.0% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-19 Apr-20 Feb-20 Sep-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-19 May-20 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.