CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background The phenomenon of climate change is generally understood as a long term significant change in the average weather patterns of the region or the earth as a whole. It mainly involves changes in the variability or average state of the temperature, precipitation and wind patterns over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. UNFCCC defines it as 'a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere'. Today the world is experiencing climate change and there is the scientific consensus that the increase in the Green House Gas concentrations in the atmosphere has caused to global climate change.

Nepal's average temperature is rising at the - C per annum between 1977 and 1994 with a higher rate in mountain century. In addition to increase in extreme temperature, weather has been observed changing in recent years. Because of the extreme temperature, there has been change in weather conditions. Number of monsoon days has been shortening, with early onset and late withdrawal, and the intensity of monsoon rain has shown increasing trend (Gurung and Bhandari 2009). Livelihood of third world's people has been changing and threatening from climate change.

The term climate change is often used interchangeably with the term global warming but according to the National Academy of Sciences the phrase 'climate change' is growing in preferred use to 'global warming' because it helps to convey meaning of other terms related to climate change in addition to rising temperatures. Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) lasting for an extended period, decade or longer. Sudden and unexpected change in weather or season is known as climate change. Climate change is being seen as one of the most serious challenges faced by civilization. It is the biggest threat of the 21st century.

Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic and social impact on South Asia in particular where livelihood of rural people depends on the use of natural

1 resources are likely to bear the brunt of its adverse impacts (ICIMOD, 2009). Climate variability in the fragile ecosystem had threatened the livelihood of rural people. The most vulnerable population to climate change and variability has been rural communities with few resources to cope with extreme weather events like landslides, erosion and drought. The variation of topography brings out the diversity on climate. The livelihood pattern varies according to the socio-cultural and economic status of the people which is determined by the environment. All the human activities are related to the environment. Environment determined by its own factors like temperature, humidity, rainfall, etc. Nepal is susceptible to disasters including flash flood, GLOF, and the melting of snow in the mountains and droughts and inundation in the Terai (Malla, 2008).

Emissions from burning fossil fuels and land use changes have emitted large quantity of Green House Gas (GHGs) in the earth`s atmosphere. Global GHGs emissions due the human interventions have increased with 70% from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007). The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also reported that human activities have changed the Earth surface and atmospheric T E ‟ (IP 2013). Increase in average global temperature (global warming), change in cloud cover and precipitation mainly over, melting of ice caps and glaciers and reduced snow cover, increase in ocean temperature and ocean acidity are the main characteristics of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007). In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems in all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate.

Livelihood in general term refers to ' a means of earning in order to live'. People mainly use tangible, intangible and economic resources to run day to day activities. A livelihood comprises of capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a living. A livelihood is sustainable which can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintains or enhance its capabilities and assets and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and which contributes net benefits to other livelihood at the local and global levels in short and long term (Chamber and Conway, 1992). A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recovery from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance it capabilities and assets both now and in the future while not condemning the natural resource base (DFID, 2001). People have 2 adjusted their way of earning livelihood strategies to adapt the changing environmental condition differ to over spare and by social groups cultural values of people in the same space can create difference in the pattern of adaptation from one ethnic group to another (Subedi and Pandey,2002). The significant role of adaption as a policy response by government has been recognized internationally. Article 4.1b of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stated that parties are committed to formulate and implement national and regional programs containing measures to mitigate climate change and measures to facilitate adequate adaption to climate change. Various studies in Nepal indicate that rural societies have adapted to climate change effects using their knowledge and experiences, basically by changing agriculture pattern, changing land uses, shifting settlements and other adjustments in their economics and life styles (Subedi, 1993). Such valuable knowledge still exists in rural communities and only a few of those are documented while rests are in the threat of extinction. Nepal has prepared its National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) for adapting to extreme climate events and variability through an extensive country driven consultative process. The document was shared with parties to the UNFCCC in November 2010. Nepal has also prepared a national framework for Local Adaptation Plan for Action (LAPA) with the twin objective of implementing adaption action and integrating climate change into local development, planning and implementation.

The impact of climate change is much greater for indigenous communities living in remote and ecologically fragile zone–those relying directly on their immediate environment for subsistence and livelihood (UNFCCC, 2004). Agriculture, forestry, water and energy, health, urban and infrastructures; tourism, industry and overall livelihood and economy are different sensitive sectors to climate change in Nepal (MOE, 2010). Thus, climate change is growing issue putting the rural livelihood and economy at risk and this needs a timely assessment with mosaic views. This research aims to observe the impact of climate change in the livelihood of the local people residing in Lamjung district.

1.2 Statement of Problem

Nepal's share in climate change is very small. The population of Nepal is less than 0.4 percent of the world's population. Nepal is responsible for only about 0.025 percent of

3 annual GHGs emission (NAPA/ MOE, 2010). The climate of the country depends on the South Asian Monsoon which has close relationship with the livelihood of the local by controlling their social and economic well-being. Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Temperatures are likely to increase more in high mountains than elsewhere (Shrestha et al 1999). Glaciers and snow fed are reducing the level of snow so that water resources are also reducing which leads to the dry condition for the country which results in the effect on irrigation, drinking water and hydropower plant. Likewise receding glaciers often leave behind growing glacier lakes that can break through terminal moraines causing catastrophic floods. Global climate change will also likely shift monsoon precipitation patterns in ways that will threaten country's current agricultural practices, infrastructures, biodiversity and whole livelihood of people. As we know that Nepalese livelihood is based on agriculture, if agriculture is affected then two-third of the labor force in the rural areas of Nepal will also be affected and a great problem of food insecurity will be seen as a result of climate change (Pant, 2012). In order to improve the ability of communities and household to adjust for ongoing climate change we need improved understanding of the risks they are facing. Estimating possible adaptation is essential to climate change impact and vulnerability assessment. Therefore, assessing the potential climate change impacts on livelihood is urgently needed for the survival of rural community where nature based activities is the main sources of livelihood. The specific research questions are as follows:

 What is the trend of temperature and precipitation and how they are changing in the study area?  How climate change is affecting livelihood and what are the people's perception towards the impact of climate change?  How the people are responding to climate change and what are the mitigation and adaptation measures adapted by them?

1.3 Objective Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century. Its effects are seen in various aspects. The livelihood of the people is affected by the climate change. This research aims to study the impact of climate change on livelihood at local level and how the people are managing to adapt to the changes. The specific objectives of the study are as follows:

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 To examine the pattern and trend of climate change in Lamjung.  To assess local people's perception and experience of climate change and its impact on their livelihood  To analyze the climate change responses and the measures adapted by local people to maintain their livelihood

1.4 Rationale of the Study Climate change is emerging issue in the world, which is one of the greatest threats to environment conservation and living security. Increasing emission of greenhouse gases into atmosphere, human intervention to environment are further compounding this problem. Although the contribution of underdeveloped countries in climate change is minute, they are most vulnerable to climate change impact. Nepal's contribution to global greenhouse gas emission is only 0.025%. (

With the change in temperature there is increasing number of natural hazards. Rainfall pattern is changing; the problem of tropical diseases can be seen in Hills and Himalaya also. Glacier lake outburst, avalanches, flood, drought etc. are increasing. Flood related natural hazards increased the loss of human being and wealth. Agricultural production and productivity is decreasing because of climate change. Our agricultural practice is depending upon rainfall pattern. Rainfall pattern is changing due to climate change. More than 2 million Nepalese people depend on agriculture sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry for their livelihood (Malla, 2008). The adaption measures which seek to reduce the vulnerability and build the resilience of the people to climate change are necessary to be studied.

Nepalese livelihood is largely dependent on climate sensitive sector. It is our need to deliver appropriate climate adaptation technology to the local community while respecting their local, traditional and indigenous practices in a participatory manner. Prevailing poverty and low level of awareness and preparedness is a major constraint to build communities' resilience towards climate change. Communities' risk to climate change can be minimized through integrated approaches of managing local resources and increasing local resilience capacity. Increasing resilience capacity of community is important for sustainable and improved livelihoods.

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In this regard, climate change is most prominent issue in Nepal. This study assessed the problem faced by the people in study area. The emerging issue of the climate change and its impacts to livelihood is the main focus of this study.

1.5 Limitations of the Study This study was conducted in limited time and concentrated on a specific area. So its result may not be applicable to other areas, context and season.  In particular this study concentrates on one ecological zone i.e. western hills and the finding may not be applicable to the other ecological zones  Absence of climate stations within study area is another limitation. As a result the nearest stations have been considered for trend analysis of precipitation and temperature.  Climatic studies needs long term and place specific data for definite conclusion and this study falls short in this respect.  Precipitation data are of 30 years and the error was calculated and listed. But in the temperature data all the station has not 30 years data so it is consider.

1.6 Organization of the Study The present study consists of eight different chapters. The present chapter contains the background of the study, statement of problem, objectives, rationale and limitations of the study. Chapter second discusses the concept in order to broaden research idea through the review of literature. Chapter three discusses the research methodology and research design. Chapter four introduces the study area. Livelihood Assets and Strategies are discussed in chapter five based on the framework of sustainable development developed by DFID. Chapter six examines the changing climatic scenario in Lamjung where the precipitation and temperature data of seven different stations from Lamjung, Tanahu and Kaski is analyzed. Climate change impacts on livelihood are mention in Chapter seven which descried the impact of climate change on livelihood along with the perception of local people. Chapter eight presents the summary, conclusions and recommendations of the study. At the end of this thesis, references of all the literatures are listed which were used during the time of preparation of this dissertation. Annexes are kept to support and make study more reliable.

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CHAPTER II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE Literature review enables researchers to find out research questions needed to define the ultimate statement of problem. It also facilitates to determine the actual topic, theoretical based and cognizant of the problem from experience of previous research (Subedi, 2004). Considering the nature of the available literature, this chapter is organized into two sections: theoretical aspects and empirical studies.

2.1 Theoretical review Theoretical review gives the idea for the research study to relate studies with theories that have been developed by the different governmental, non-governmental organizations and scholars. Geography is the discipline that studies man-environment relationship and so that different theories and approaches have been developed to address issues on spatial phenomena and their relationship. This review summarizes two major theoretical frameworks climate change adaption approach and sustainable livelihood approach.

2.1.1 Climate Change Adaptation The concept of adaptation of humans to environment variability was used in anthropology already in the early 1900s. The capacity of people to adapt to environment changes depends to a large degree on theory resilience and assets base. One of the most influential factors in the climate discussion is Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNDP). It functions as a source of scientifically valid information for policy makers about the cause of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it (IPCC, 2008). IPCC also functions as the main provider of information for the negotiation under UNFCCC.

Adaptation to climate change means adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effect (IPCC,2001). Adaptation may be changed such as strengthening the structure of settlement, alteration in the agricultural system, labor migration, diversification of livelihood sources, and moderating consumption behavior. For adaptation strategies, local people themselves

7 should learn and look to make strategies for coping with environmental stress as the locals are the experts in their own situation. Lack of cooperation between different ministries and stakeholders as well as lack of participation of the lower level of the society in decision making process are the major obstacles for the autonomous adaptation strategies to function properly. Increasing the adaptive capacity or resilience of the stakeholder household and communities is essential (Resurreccion et al, 2008).

The predicted impact of climate change is numerous and varies according to different scenarios. The rising sea level and temperature may induce extreme environmental phenomena such as flood, drought and storm to increase and intensity. The impact may cause serious challenges to livelihood and health especially for people in developing countries. IPCC has noted that the developed countries are generally more capable of coping with the impact of climate change than the less developed ones due to the greater wealth and level of development they also express a fear that the climate change impact may further intensify migration caused by environment degradation and hazards, which in turn may add pressure to already vulnerable receiving economics.

Adaptation is the responsive adjustment in nature or human managed system to minimize the expected change, its effect or impacts. Responses aim to reduce the vulnerability and susceptibility to climate change. Impact can be observed at individual, groups or governmental levels. IPCC has categorized adaption into two types: spontaneous and planned adaptions. Spontaneous adaption occurs at the level of individual whereas planned adaption needs involvement of society with guiding policies. It is widely stated that farmers can adapt to climate variation and change strategically by selecting crop types and its varieties, adjusting planting time and input use or by altering soil management practices as well as diversifying their farm enterprises. Factors demonstrating adaption to climate change indicates that education, household size, gender, livestock ownership, extension of crops and livestock production, accessibility of credit, strengthening the structure of settlement, diversification of livelihood sources and moderating consumption behavior and labor migration have a positive and significant impact on adaption to climate change. The relationship between climate change adaption and other environmental, social and economic policy issues regarding development is another significant issue, as the goals of adaption and development are complementary.

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2.1.2 Sustainable Livelihood Approach Sustainable livelihood approach was conceptualized in the work of Robert Chamber and Gordan Conway in the work title "Sustainable Rural Livelihood Practical Concepts for the 21st Century" where they defined sustainable livelihood as follows:

A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living; a livelihood is sustainable which can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and which contributes net benefits to other livelihoods at the local and global levels and in short and long-term (Chambers & Conway 1992:7)

One reason for its attraction is that it combines the different strands of thinking namely: environment development and livelihood thinking that were dominating the various fields related to development issue (Chamber 1987). The central idea of this approach is assets beside the sustainability, vulnerability and livelihood strategies are additional values of this approach. The UK Department of International Development (DFID) has constructed a series of guidelines based on the idea of Chamber and Conway which is widely used in development field research and project

Figure2.1: Sustainable Livelihood Framework

Source: DFID 2001

The core objective of approach in DFID guidance sheet includes e.g. better access for the poor to education, technology, infrastructure, financial resources and social service as

9 well as to the natural resources including their management. The ultimate aim of sustainable livelihood approach is to eliminate poverty (DFID, 2001). Important aspect of this approach is livelihood assets to the different capitals that the people own. Chamber & Conway mentioned the centrality of different assets to livelihood where they used two categories for different assets: tangible assets such as stores and resources and intangible assets such as claim and access. DFID further divides the assets into five categories  Human capital- the skills, knowledge, health and ability to pursue livelihood strategies  Social capital- networks and connections based on e.g. kinship that aid people in building their livelihood  Natural capital- natural resources base, and the access to and management of it  Physical capital- access to infrastructure  Financial capital- savings and income

The ways in which people combines their different assets and activities in order to meet their various needs and to reach the desired livelihood outcome (DFID, 2001). A week asset leads to a lower level resilience. Increasing the resilience of vulnerable population group can be attempt by helping them to build their asset base which reduces vulnerability towards external shock and stress. Increasing access to the assets is the core method to fight against poverty. Sustainable livelihood approach emphasizes the grass root level in managing socio-ecological system (DFID, 2001).

Vulnerability context

The vulnerability context frames the external environment in which people exist. Critical trends as well as shocks and seasonality, over which people have limited or no control, ‟ d on the wider availability of assets. Not all of the trends and seasonality must be considered as negative. Vulnerability emerges when human beings have to face harmful threat or shock with inadequate capacity to respond effectively. The difference between risk and vulnerability is of crucial relevance for assessing causes of poverty. Risk is defined as the likelihood of occurrence of (external) shocks and stresses plus their potential severity, whereas vulnerability is the degree of exposure to risk (hazard, shock) and uncertainty, and the capacity of households or individuals to prevent, mitigate or cope with risk.

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Livelihood Assets

As the livelihood approach is concerned first and foremost with people, it seeks to gain an accurate and realistic understanding of ‟ (“ ” “ ” I crucial to analyze how people endeavor to convert these strengths into positive livelihood outcomes. The approach is founded on a belief that people require a range of assets to achieve positive livelihood outcomes. Therefore the SLF identifies five types of assets or capitals upon which livelihoods are built, namely human capital, social capital, natural capital, physical capital and financial capital.

Policies, Institutions and Processes

The importance of policies, institutions and processes cannot be overemphasized because they operate at all levels from the household to the international arena and in all spheres, from the most private to the most public. They effectively determine access (to various types of capital, to livelihood strategies and to decision-making bodies and source of influence), terms of exchange between different types of capitals, and returns to any given livelihood strategy (DFID, 2001). Policies, institutions and processes have a direct impact upon weather people are able to achieve a feeling of inclusion and well-being. Because, C „ x ‟ „ ‟ different societies. (DFID, 2001) Policies, institutions and processes can determine access to assets and influence decision making processes.

Livelihood Strategies

Livelihood strategies are the combination of activities that people choose to undertake in order to achieve their livelihood goals. They include productive activities, investment strategies and reproductive choices.

Livelihood Outcomes

Livelihood outcomes are the achievements or outputs of livelihood strategies, such as more income, increased well-being, reduce vulnerability, improved food security and a more sustainable use of natural resources. When thinking about livelihood outcomes, the

11 aims of a particular group as well as the extent to which these are already being achieved has to be understood.

People centered approach is considered in livelihood framework. For people's livelihood different assets are required. Climate change increases jeopardy in livelihood of people. With the current scenario of climate change of the world most of the livelihood assets are under threat bringing misery to the people's life all over the globe. Due to increasing frequency of natural disaster resulting from climate change livelihood are under threat and people are being more vulnerable and are suffering from forceful migration.

The concept of sustainability in the sustainable livelihood approach helps to understand the importance of considering the impact of different projects on both the socio and ecological system. The concept of sustainable development was first brought into the policy discussion in the Brundtland Commission report in 1987 and was defined as 'Development that meets the need of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs' (Brundtland 1987).

In sustainable system, the impact from the action of the social system should not harm the ecological system beyond its capacity to renew itself and maintain a diverse ecosystem. When the ecological system is sustainable and viable it is capable of supporting the social system as well and thus enables it to strengthen the resilience. Chronologically the sustainable livelihood approaches preceded resilience thinking. Resilience thinking fills in the gap left by the sustainable livelihood approach (Marschke & Berkes 2006).

WWF describes the linkage between conservation and livelihood emphasizing more on asset holding and building; generating and capitalizing on adaptive capacity; and building capability of local users who are most vulnerable and dependent on natural resources and affected by climate and environmental challenges (WWF, 2012). Its major expected outcomes : to secure the livelihoods of people and communities without creating pressure on natural resources and ecosystem base are evident from its past efforts in Neal such as green enterprises, water smart communities, ecotourism, sustainable financing for biogas and livestock and crop insurances. DFID describes its conceptual framework in the context of analyzing assets, vulnerability, risks and outcomes with an attempt to reveal the existing situation rather than whether the findings fit in the conceptual framework or not. OXFAM framework of sustainable livelihood focuses on market to help insure the poor people to gain access power and fair prices in market which describes the value

12 chain analysis model and helps the people to gain influence over the structures and roles governing the market (Carney, 2008). However, all of these frameworks are people centered and focus on people's participation to make their livelihood sustainable.

2.2 Review of Related Literature

2.2.1 Climatic Condition of Nepal The climate of Nepal is characterized into mainly four distinct seasons: they are Pre- monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September), Post-monsoon (October-November) and winter (December–February). Due to variation in climate the country is abundant store house of biodiversity and ecological niches. With diverse agro-climatic zone ranging from sub-tropical to alpine and tundra, the variable geo-climatic conditions, young geology, unplanned settlement, degradation of natural resources and increase in population makes the country vulnerable to a variety of climate related extreme events (FAO, 2010).

Monsoon circulation system dominates the climate of South Asian countries. Summer monsoon dominates the climate from May to September while winter monsoon dominates the climate from November to March (Shrestha et al, 2000). In Nepal Summer monsoon, which is governed by south easterly moisture containing air masses coming from Bay of Bengal and winter monsoon, which is governed by cold and dry air masses that brings winter rainfall from north western side. The monsoon rain starts from east towards west and is more abundant in eastern part while winter monsoon is higher in North western and declines as it moves to south eastern (MoE, 2010). Average rainfall of Nepal is 1800 mm but there are marked spatial and temporal variations both North- South and East- West. The study also indicates that the observed warming trend in the country is spatially variable (NCVST, 2009). About 15% of total annual rainfall falls in the pre-monsoon, 80% in monsoon, 4% in post-monsoon and 3% falls in winter season (Practical Action Nepal, 2009). High intensity rainfall events during Monsoon season leaves the country highly susceptible to water induced natural disasters such as flood, landslide, flash flood, debris flow, slope failure, Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GlOF) etc. Among them flooding is frequent in monsoon season.

The national average me with the exception of mountain valleys. The onset of monsoon in early June checks the

13 increase in daily temperature over the country. Therefore the maximum temperature of the year occurs in May or early June. Temperature starts decreasing rapidly from October and reaches the minimum of the year in December or January. Although normally the temperature decreases with height, there is also spatial variation in temperature in Nepal influenced by topography. Terai belt is the hottest part of the country where the extreme maxim T lowest w - T in Mustang district. The average temperature in Nepal decre increase from east to west (FAO, 2010).

2.2.2 Climate Change and Overriding Issue with Global Context

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or its variability, which may be due to natural internal processes or external force or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2001). Many changes in geophysical, biological and socio-economic system will occur due to the impact of climate change. As the scientific consensus on significant changes in climate grew, there has also increased concerned on the effect of climate change on human beings (Thapa & Joshi, 2010). UNFCCC (2001) defines climate change “ alters the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time per ”

IPCC (2007b) reported the human beings are the major contributors for the increased amount of greenhouse gases. Developing countries are mostly susceptible to climate change due to their limited capacity to cope with hazards associated with the change in the climate. The major risk reduction approach is adaption to global change (UNFCCC, 2007).

In the developing world, climate change would lead to an increase in lands that are arid and lands with moisture stress (FAO, 2005). Fourth Assessment Report on climate change (AR4) of the IPCC depicted that eleven of the last twelve years from 1995 to 2006 were the warmest years recorded since 1850. The 100-year linear trend on global average surface temperature from 1906 to 2005 showed that the earth surface t

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( (IP linear trend on global averaged surface temperature (combining land and ocean surface) from 1880 to 2012 period showed that the temperature on Earth has inc (IP

Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change as more than 1.9 million people are vulnerable to climate change (MoE, 2010). In Nepal, the warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as the middle mountain and the high himalayas, while the warming is significantly lower or even lacking in the Terai and Siwalik regions. Further, warming in the winter is more pronounced compared to other seasons. According to one recent study, Nepal's temperature is rising by about 0.41 degrees Celsius per decade. The climate change had increased the rainfall by 13mm per year where as the number of rainy days on the other hand is decreasing by 0.8 days per year which further results in increase in river flow by 1.48m3/s per year (Regmi et al., 2007).

Shrestha and Wake (2000) found that the average warming of Himalaya and Terai was 0.06 °C/year and 0.04°C/year in between 1977 and 1994. Furthermore through the assessment of the climatic condition of Nepal, MoPE (2004) found that annual trend of temperature rise per decade was 0.41°C whereas seasonal rise trend during pre- monsoon, monsoon and winter periods were 0.43°C, 0.43°C and 0.37°C per decade respectively. The study of (Quadir et al., 2004) in the region around Bay of Bengal, from Nepal on north to Malaysia in south showed that the increase in temperature is more predominant in Nepal compare to other countries.

Climate change is resulting in extreme events like excessive rainfall, longer drought periods, landslides and floods that are causing GLOF, damage to irrigation systems, roads and many other infrastructures (Regmi et al, 2007). A study conducted by Practical Action (2009) using data from 49 weather stations for the period of 1976-2005 indicates a consistent and continuous warming in maximum temperature at an annual rate of 0.04 °C.

FAO (2007) reported that as climatic pattern change, so also do the spatial distribution of agro-ecological zones, habitats, distribution patterns of plant diseases and pests which can have significant impacts on agriculture and food production. FAO (2005) has predicted that in developing countries, 11 percent of arable land would be affected by climate change, including a reduction of cereal production in up to 65 countries, about 16 percent

15 of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The increase in temperature has both negative and positive impact on agriculture as (IPCC, 2007) has projected that the potential food production to increase with increase in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3 °C, but above this it is projected to decrease.

2.2.3 Climate of Nepal: Observed Variations and Projections

Temperature observation in Nepal shows a great warming trend. Temperature trend analysis from 1977 to 1994 in 49 metrological stations across Nepal shows the average increase of temperature varies f (Sherstha et. al 1999). Similarly a study on trend of spatial and the warming has been observed more pronounced in the northern part of the country than in the southern part. This study shows the observed warming trend in the country is spatially variable (Practical Action Nepal, 2009).

There is increase in temperature extremes with hotter days becoming more frequent and cooler nights less frequent. The temperature differences are most pronounced during dry winter season and least during the monsoon. There is also significantly greater warming at higher elevation than at lower elevation in the Terai region. Significant glacier retreat as well as significant expansions of glacial lakes has been recorded in recent decades with high likelihood that such impact are linked to rising temperature(FAO, 2010). T while the warmer month is increased b (MoE, 2010).

Most of the Terai belt and western Nepal observed negative trends except in the few pockets of positive trend. The hills and mountains of west Nepal and northern belt of eastern Nepal have positive trends. Maximum negative trend is noticed in the eastern and central part of Nepal. However increasing trend has been observed during monsoon season in both the number of rainy days and rainfall magnitude. Trend of monsoon onset and withdrawal shows the monsoon season length in increasing (FAO, 2010) but the reliability of the analysis is not robust enough to draw meaningful conclusions.

Recent studies on temperature suing General Circulation Model (GCM) project the temperature of Nepal is on increasing trend. Mean annual tem

16 in 2090 (NCVST, 2009). The projection also reveals higher temperature increment in winter than in summer season and higher temperature increment in central and western parts than in eastern parts in Nepal (MoE, 2010).

The amount of precipitation varies significantly across the country because of non- uniform and rugged terrain. Analyses on precipitation data recorded in all Nepal during 1948–1994 and sub regions show a large inter annual and decadal variation (Shrestha et al 2000). Similarly a study conducted on the annual precipitation data from 1976 – 2005 from 166 stations across Nepal reveals the overall increasing trend of precipitation (Practical Action Nepal, 2009). Projected mean annual precipitation is -34 to + 22 percent by 2030, -36 to + 67 percent by 2060 and -43 to + 80 percent by 2090 (NCVST, 2009). This shows the wide range of mean annual precipitation change with no clear trend. Furthermore the projection also reveals an increasing trend of rainfall intensity during monsoon and post monsoon while this shows a decreasing trend in winter (MoE, 2010).

The climate model projections(CCCM, GFD3 and RCM) shows that there will be

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-western region than any other season according to CCCM model for all seasons in general the rising gradient is from east to west, whereas in GFD3 model it is from west to east during Pre-monsoon and Winter. The overall temperature in the country is found to be rising at the rate of ( ).

For precipitation the trend are less certain but there is evidence of increasing occurring of intense rainfall events and increase in flood days and generally more variable river flows. Importantly the above changes which are consistent with a range of climate change model are predicted to continue into 21st century. The summer monsoon is likely to become more intense with increasing occurrence of heavy rainfall events whilst winter precipitation is predicted to reduce. Wide spread glacier retreat is expected to continue resulting in significant change to hydrological regimes and increases risk of GLOFs. As glacier melts accelerates increased run off can be expected initially followed by a steady decline. In the model output analysis of GFD3 model projects general increase in precipitation for whole Nepal with gradient from south west to north east. In the magnitude of 150 to 1050 mm at double CO2 level. CCCM model projects a decrease in

17 precipitation from 0-400 mm in eastern region but increase in precipitation in other regions upto 1600 mm. On the other hand the Regional Climate Model (RCM) indicates a change in precipitation by -1000 to +3000 mm. The GCM projection of precipitation scenario against observed precipitation values shows the rainy season in Nepal including pre and post monsoon season will be more intense. Highly noticeable increase is found especially during June – July. Precipitation scenarios also indicate that winter and spring will be dry than what is now (FAO, 2009).

The large inter annual variation in rainfall could be attributed to natural cycles. IPCC ( 2007) projects that there will be a general increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in future and an overall decrease by upto 15 days in the annual no of rainy days over a large part of South Asia. The observations and projections indicate that the key impacts are likely to include significant warming particularly at higher elevation leading to reductions in snow and ice coverage. Increased frequencies of extreme events including floods and drought and overall increased in precipitations during the wet seasons.

Nepal is largely an agrarian economy and thereby highly sensitive to change in climate and natural resources availability. Climate change threatens to reduce the effectiveness if development initiatives across Nepal. Drying adding to a trend of warming will impair food security and affect the availability of water resources. This will increase the vulnerability of marginalized and poor people in both rural and urban areas of western Nepal. Further increases in the intensity of rain in other parts of Nepal, particularly those where the topography is broken and soils erode will experience increase flooding and landslide risks threatening human livelihood (MoE, 2010). The projected climate change will be potentially catastrophic to people, their livelihood and ecosystem.

2.2.4 Impact of Climate Change

The main characteristics of climate change are increases in average global temperature; changes in cloud cover and precipitation particularly over land; melting of ice caps and glaciers and reduced snow cover; and increases in ocean temperatures and ocean acidity – due to seawater absorbing heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2007).

IPCC (2007b) reported that human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (for example more intense and frequent extreme events) and

18 indirectly though changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure. These direct and indirect exposures can cause death, disability and suffering.

The World Bank (2007) has conducted a study to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The study also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined (http: //econ.worldbank.org.).

Gurung and Bhandari (2009) have noted that in response to climate change, the prospects of bringing new land under cultivation by clearing the vegetation have also threatened biodiversity conservation in high altitude areas through habitat destruction, degradation, fragmentation and loss.They found that important habitats will be displaced by croplands.

‟ GHG ; responding to the effects and impacts of climate variability, climate change, and extreme weather events. There was an average increase in the mean annual temperature of earth surface by 0.06ºC per year between 1977 and 1994 (World Bank, 2007a). Such rapid increase in the temperature may have affected agricultural production in the country. We have not yet conducted a specific research on this regards. Such study is however beyond the scope of this paper. It is not counter initiative to think that with predicted increases in temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, there will be significant negative impacts ‟ public health, forestry and biodiversity, agriculture and water resources (MoPE, 2004).

NAPA has identified six major areas that are impacted by climate change. Those six areas are basic things for the development of NAPA processes including the formation of thematic working groups. Climate change is responsible for declining crops and livestock production. Nepal's vulnerable subsistence farming economy is facing risk due to change in vulnerability of stream flow a more intense and potentially erratic monsoon rainfall and the impact of flooding. Decline of winter rainfall have adversely affected the winter and spring crops. The yield of major crops mainly rice which is sensitive to climatic

19 conditions has been decreased and it is leading towards food insecurity. Effect of climate change on water resources could be manifold implications due to more and little water conditions. Over 85 percent of total population relies on traditional biomass for their energy supply. Increased incident of fire forest threatens the availability of fuel wood. 90 percent of Nepalese electricity production is from hydropower, which are sure to be affected from climate change. Data from the MoHA shows that every year more than one million people are susceptible to climate induced disaster such as flood, landslide and drought. Trend of flooding are closely related to the effect of higher temperature on glaciers, 20 glacial lakes are at the risk of bursting whereas six have been identified as critical.

Forest and biodiversity has been affected by climate change. New alien and invasive species are emerging and their habitat is spreading at a fast rate. The increase in the incidence of forest fires has put several species of flora and fauna in the risk of extinction. Different kinds of vector-borne and water-borne infectious diseases are growing rapidly day by day which is leading making the public health vulnerable. Impacts of climate change to urban settlement are mostly cross-thematic in nature and are related to climate induced disasters. The impacts are concentrated around urban water and energy resources and adversely affected infrastructure and human health.

The impact of climate change is observed in cross-cutting sectors. From the gender the women are mostly affected because of their close involvement in the climate sensitive sectors. The rural households who depend on the natural resources for their livelihood are more vulnerable to climate change. Those industries which depend on Agro-Forestry raw materials are more affected by the extremes climate change. Tourism which is an important aspect of Nepalese economy is sensitive to extreme climatic events and seasonal changes such as floods, landslides, droughts and excessive rainfall.

2.2.5 Impact of Climate Change on Livelihood

Nepal's low level of development and complex topography renders it vulnerable to climate change. The ongoing climate change and change projected to occur are likely to have impact on different sectors of Nepal. The sensitive sectors are agriculture and forestry, water and energy, health, urban and infrastructure, tourism industry and overall livelihood. It is suggested that more than 1.9 million people are highly climate vulnerable and 10 million are increasingly at risk to climate change. Poor people are vulnerable to

20 loss of physical capital (damage of shelter and infrastructure), human capital (malnutrition and disease), social capital (displacement of communities), natural capital (loss of productivity in agriculture) and financial capital (more disaster and lower income). Degradation of livelihood by climate change will thus lead people with less of assets they need to withstand shock and stresses (NAPA, 2010). A study shows that households with low income, small land holding size and lacking access to information and basic services are more vulnerable than with households with relatively richer assets base (Regmi et al, 2009).

According to UN climate change impact report the following impacts of climate will appear on climate and affects the livelihood of the people:  About 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C (2.7 to 4.5 degrees F). The mountainous areas of Europe will face much greater species losses, "in some areas up to 60 percent under high emission scenarios by 2080.  By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change, By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40 percent at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30 percent over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water stressed areas.  Over the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.  By the 2080s, millions of people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea- level rise, the report predicts. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega- deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable.  Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and avalanches and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

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 Poor countries that bear least responsibility will suffer most - and they have no money to respond - but people should also be aware that even the richer countries risk enormous damage. The livelihood of almost poor people especially in rural areas depend upon natural resources and climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and livestock farming. They have few options for diversifying livelihood away from those sensitive sectors and reducing vulnerability. Poor people often do not have enough assets to sustain or rebuild livelihood after the impact of hazard because of financial resources, poor health, lack of clean water and sanitation, weak physical infrastructures and remoteness from government services. Literature widely discusses the impact of climate change in a number of areas including snow melting, glacial retreat, drought and desertification, flooding, frequent forest fires, sea level rise, species shift and disease incidence. Those ecological and biological responses can lead to serious consequences for human wellbeing (MoE, 2010).

2.2.6 Nepalese Policy Responses to Climate Change

Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 and ratified it on 2nd May 1994. Since then, Nepal has been regularly participating in COPs and other subsidiary meetings. After that the country signed the Kyoto Protocol in September 1995. The Government of Nepal identified the Ministry of Environment (MoE) as the Designated National Authority (DNA) as part of its commitment to the effective implementation of climate change policies. The Government of Nepal prepared a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and an Initial National Communication Report (2004). Besides to take the benefit from the CDM as a source of new investment and technology, Nepal is trying various CDM projects which promote clean energy and sustainable development in the country. In 2008, the Government and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) began work on the preparation and implementation of the National Adaption Plan of Action (NAPA). There are other national initiatives like the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience (PPCR) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD). The Government of Nepal held a historical cabinet meeting at Kalapather located next to the base camp of the Mt Everest at an altitude of 5250 m on December 4, 2009. It was intended to focus world attention to the critical impacts of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem. During the NAPA inception workshop for the effective implementation of

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NAPA the concept of Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) was suggested and this LAPA framework helped to integrate climate adaption and resilience aspects in local and national plans. Beside with the aim of improving livelihoods by mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change, low carbon emission development, supporting and collaborating the country's commitment the Government of Nepal has started the implementation of Climate Change Policy 2011, NAPA and LAPA framework with the twin objectives of implementing local level adaption actions and integrating adaption into local planning process. In 2015 MoSTE had lunched National Adaption Plan (NPA) for the facilitating country owned process by coordinating adaptation planning at the relevant scales and with a medium and long term view. The Constitution of Nepal 2072 has enlisted Right to a Clean Environment in Article 30 as fundamental rights.

2.2.7 Empirical studies on climate change and livelihood

Subedi and Pandey (2002) have studied on livelihood strategies of Rai communities of Arun valley. Livelihood strategies reflect the complexity of man environment relationship including local people's attempts to cope with environment utilizing available resources and adapting new options over time. The study was based on field survey in two geographical locations namely: Sitalpati in lower elevation and Makalu in higher elevation. The study shows that over time in both locations, Rai communities have adapted various strategies to ease their livelihood. The study shows the communities have changed the strategies of earning their livelihood. They have used Khoriyas or Khet for additional import in agricultural adaptation of multiple cropping and crop diversification strategies. Besides such strategies laboring porter, borrowing, credibility and livestock selling were sequence of livelihood strategies adapted.

INSEC (2007) has studies about the livelihood of 24 VDCs and three Ex-Kamaiya camps on the six districts of mid-western development region of Nepal to understand the livelihood status and opportunities there. The analysis and interpretation of the study was based on the sustainable livelihood framework. Livelihood framework has mutually inclusive elements of sustainable livelihood hence has interrelationship among them. Livelihood framework may vary but all of them represent some of the same basic elements of sustainable livelihood, which include vulnerability context, livelihood assets, policies, institution and processes; livelihood strategies and outcomes. The study finds that over last ten years an improvement was noticed in the social status and self-respect business and occupation, accessibility to basic services, level of participation in local

23 organization. However security situation has been virtually worse. The perception was across the board i.e.by regions and among all caste/ethnic groups. Overall, livelihood of the people of mid-west Nepal was at risk. For the betterment of livelihood, livelihood enhancement programs should be designed and implemented within the sustainable livelihood framework focusing on reforming policies, institutions and processes, increasing accessibility, availability and quality of basic services and facilities, increasing access to livelihoods assets, reducing vulnerability context and increasing livelihood opportunities.

Chapagain (2008) in his study on land, labour and agriculture change in upper manang valley: understanding meanings and process suggests that the traditional agro pastoral production system could not manage the subsistence need of local people that compel them to look for the alternative extra local activities for their survival.

Ericson (2009) discusses about the climate change of Hindu kush Himalayan region which is effecting in the amount of snow and ice and rainfall pattern in that area which needs to understand those changes and implications for downstream water availability and the impact on livelihood. Climate change is predicted to lead major changes in the strength and timing of Asian monsoon, inner Asian high pressure system and winter westerly which impact precipitation, river flow, ground water recharges, natural hazards and the ecosystem as well as on the people and their livelihood could be dramatic. The impact of climate change on forests boundaries and upward movement of tree line to higher elevation, changes in species composition and in vegetation type and increase in net primary productivity. He further added that this change can even impact on high valuable infrastructure such as hydropower plants, roads, bridges, pipelines and communication system.

Bhusal (2009) carried out a research in Lumle and Ghandruk VDC of Kaski district. The x „ temperature and rainfall data recorded at meteorological station in Lumle and documents local adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change, and it's variability. Total 113 respondents were randomly interviewed by making transect walk ranging from 1000 m to 2300 m from mean sea level. Study found some adaptation measures such as forest protection, utilization of marginal lands by planting trees and grasses, crop diversifications in their farming practices.

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Assessment made by the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives, WFP, and FAO shows that the production of wheat and barley fell down by 14% and 17% respectively. The report also indicated that situations were worst in western Nepal where food production dropped by almost 50% in 2009 (WFP, 2009). Crop and livestock production are highly dependent on climate and the Nepalese farms and farming systems are found very vulnerable to climate change (MoPE, 2004). People of Southern Annapurna Conservation Area have adapted local knowledge and techniques to protect water sources and farmland along with the diversification of agriculture and other income generating activities (Pandit, 2010).

Khadka (2011) carried out a study in the Lwang Ghalel VDC., Kaski district about the perception of locals on the impact of climate change on cash crop production shows increase in rainfall pattern at the rate of 2.74mm/yr and temperature at the rate of 0.064°C/year. The production of tea is much more affected by climate change than Amriso, Cardamom and Coffee. More than half of the respondent agreed Amriso is the best-adapted species from climate change due to its spread roots.

Caroline (2012) has reported that today's world is becoming complex and changing; competition for water from many different sectors can divert attention from its role in improvement of human livelihood. He said that to better manage the vital resources we need to develop ways of qualifying it which reflects this complexity while providing robust representation of reality. 75 percent of the world's poorest people live in rural areas across the world and for them water access can literally mean the differences between life and death. The Rural Water Livelihood Index (RWLI) attempt to access some of the most fundamental water related component which influence rural livelihood and which can support rural poverty reduction.

Yang X et al. (2013) had studied people's perception and adaptation strategies to climate change in the Koshi basin Nepal where they found that the rural communities used coping strategies much more frequently than adaptive strategies. The majority of respondents perceived the change in climate but some population were not able to perceive any change. Thereby calling for need for awareness raising information dissemination in those rural areas where the livelihoods are predominantly dependent upon farming. Unless the community realize that there have been change in the weather pattern they cannot be motivated to take appropriate measures to adapt for their farming system according to change. This study focuses on the establishment of small hydrological stations in local

25 areas because without recorded data monitoring the change is impossible. The specific studies on sector basis considering gender, ethnic and economic condition of people is needed for coping strategies to respond on avoidable impact of climate change.

2.3 Conceptual Framework

The main focus of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the livelihood of the local people residing in Chiti, Jita and Taksar VDC of Lamjung district. Traditionally people have developed their livelihood strategies at local level based on the available natural and human resources. Climate change vulnerability analyses often done on socio-economic approaches or point of view of bio-physical aspects. However this study is based in integrated approach of vulnerability analysis by combining socio- economic, hydro-metrological and traditional local knowledge and practices. The changes in temperature and precipitation pattern have tremendous effect on the availability and quality of livelihood assets. This further threatens the traditional livelihood structure and people became vulnerable and prone to the impact of climate change. To cope with the changing environment adaptation in line with the best livelihood strategies should be developed and adapted.

Figure 2.2: Conceptual Framework

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CHAPTER III

RESEARCH METHODS

3.1 Selection of the Study Area

Nepal is affected from climate change and besides this hill region is mostly affected. For this study the Lamjung district, which falls in western development region, in Gandaki Zone is selected. Its physiography covers three geographical zones with most of the district covering Middle and High hill. Chiti VDC and Madhya Nepal Municipality (the then Jita VDC and Taksar VDC) are the study area for this study, the particular area is chosen for the study because it is easily accessible, and heterogeneous in socio-economic, cultural and geographical structure. Most of the people in this area are engaged in agriculture which is widely affected sector from climate change. Beside that the selection was done by Long Term Research Programme (LTRP) of Ecosystem-based Adaptation through South-South Coperation (EbA-SSC), Nepal Pilot Project and this Study is funded by this Project. EbA approach to combat against the climate change issues and has benefited for the EbA south project in two sites, Site 1 Chiti VDC (670-1260m) with 7-52 slope and Site 2 Jita and Tangrang Taksar (670-1260m) with 13-45 slope of Lamjung. The VDCs were stratified into two groups –watershed area of Marshyangdi river in Chiti VDC i.e Ward no 3, 5, 9, 8, 7and 6. The watershed area of Risti river in Jita VDC i.e. 4,5,7,8,and 9 and Tandrang Taksar VDC i.e. 1,2,5,6,7,8and 9 with their slope. For the inclusive study and to know the impact of climate change on livelihood in micro level the study area was divided in three ecological regions.

3.2 Research design

The research design refers to the overall strategy that we choose to integrate the different components of the study in a coherent and logical way. The research design is a completed framework of the research project. It refers to the conceptual structure with which research is conducted. This research is completely based on the framework and the research was carried out in the steps as described in the figure below.

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Literature Review, Expert suggestion

Reconnaissance visit to study area and preparation of the research tools

Data Collection Primary data Secondary data

HH Survey, KII, FDG and DHM, CBS, VDC and others published and unpublished literature Observation

Raw data Raw data and processed data

Data entry, compilation and computation Data entry, compilation and computation

Analysis and

interpretation of data

Dissertation Preparation

3.3 Selection of Samples Lamjung district which lie in western development region is selected as the study area. The Study area was divided into two sites, Site 1 Chiti VDC and Site 2 is Jita and Taksar VDCs. The watershed area of Marshyangdi river in Chiti VDC, which consists of 12 sub watershed. Risti watershed of Jita and Taksar VDCs which consists of 34 sub watershed were taken as strata and 75 households were taken from each site. Beside that study areas was divided into three different ecological regions by their elevation (high hill, middle hill and valley) for study purpose from which we can know the impact from all regions.

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Information on the socio-economic status, perception of local people about climate change, along with other information was collected through household survey (ANNEXS IV) 54 HHs already suggested by project document and rest of the 96 HHs were selected to make more reliable and representative. Focus Group Discussion (FGDs) and Key Informant Interview (KII) were conducted to gather more information. To ensure equal probability in selection of respondents for the study, households was purposively chosen and responses elicited from either the head of household or other senior members depending on their availability at that time during the field work.

3.4 Data collection techniques and tools The empirical analyses were based on the data from a cross-sectional survey which was conducted in Jita, Taksar and Chiti VDCs of Lamjung district in July 2016. The primary data was collected in a number of ways. The quantitative data was collected through a farm household survey, Information on the socio-economic status, perception of local people about climate change, main source of livelihood was collected through household survey (ANNEX IV) whilst the qualitative data was collected using focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Secondary data on weather patterns were sourced from DHM. The use of different data collection methods increase the comprehensiveness of information gathers as well as allowed for triangulation of findings.

The study was focused on rural communities' climate change perceptions and their adaptation responses. FGDs collected information on livelihood activities, community perceptions to changes in climate and their impacts, as well as community responses. Three FGDs were conducted comprising about 10-12 mixed (in terms of gender, age and resource endowments) rural community members.

Field work activities were facilitated by project site office in Lamjung and local stakeholders. The cross – sectional survey covered three purposefully selected VDCs (Jita Taksar and Chiti) from which a sample of 150 (54 HHs already suggested by project document and rest of the 96 HHs were selected to make more reliable and representative) purposively selected households were interviewed. Household interviews using a semi- structured questionnaire were conducted to gather both qualitative and quantitative information to complement the data collected from FGDs.

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The sampled households provided a fair representation of livelihood activities in the project intervention VDCs. Key informant interviews were conducted with extension staff, development workers and local leaders who comprised chiefs and village heads. The data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Descriptive statistics, mainly frequencies were used for empirical analyses. Empirical climate studies were used to validate farmers' perceptions and implications on livelihoods.

3.5 Data analysis process

All the collected data was analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively as per their nature. The temperature and precipitation data was analyzed to find out the trend of climatic variability by time series regression analysis of 30 years. The missing data of precipitation were listed by averaging two from upper and two from lower cases. In temperature the data were missed upto years and all station has not data of 30 years so the calculation was made without modifying the data of DHM.

The data were analyzed in MS-Excel; linear regression was calculated to compute the trend in climate variables. The model of linear regression line for fitting values used in this study was = + x ………………………… ( Where, y is a dependent variable a is the intercept b is the slope of the trend line, and x is the explanatory value. In the study the regression equations were considered to be statistically significant cases at 95 percent confidence level.

Vulnerability index is calculated based on the approach derived by the Ministry of Environment While calculating the vulnerability index Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity were taken consideration at the respondent report from the household data. For the calculation the following equation were used

Exposure = score _ indicator]

The exposure index was calculated as the sum of five indicator scores (i-v)

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Sensitivity = score _ indicator]

The sensitivity index was expressed as the sum of five indicator scores (vi-x)

Adaptive Capacity= score _ indicator]

The adaptive capacity index was expressed as the sum of four indicator scores (xi-xiv) Climate Change Awareness index= Climate change awareness was calculated as a composite index of three indicators conceptual, experiential awareness and engagement.

The Vulnerability index is expressed as the product of (Exposure × Sensitivity)-Adaptive Capacity

To find the climatic condition of the particular study area interpolation has been done by using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) tool. It assumes that each measures point has a local influence that diminished with distance. It gives greater weight to point closest to the prediction location and weight diminish as a function of distance. By making temperature and metrological shape file in Arc Map 10.1 the interpolation was done to find the temperature and metrological condition of the study area. The Isohyetal map had been prepared to know the climatic condition of the study areas.

Data obtained from field work was processed, analyzed and interpreted through MS- Excel and SPSS. Hydrographs had been made to show the climatic trend of the study area Maps have been interpolated by using GIS software (Arc Map 10.1).

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CHAPTER IV STUDY AREA

4.1 Geographical Profile of Lamjung District

Lamjung district is located in the Gandaki zone of the Western Development Region and borders with Gorkha district in East, Kaski in West, Manang in North and Tanahun in South. Lamjung lies in the mid-hills of Nepal with Spanning from tropical to trans- himalyan geo-ecological belts, including the geographical midpoint of the country The district (Latitude: 28º03'19" to 28º30'38" N and Longitude: 84º11'23" to 84º38'10" E) covers an area of 1692 sq.km with an altitude range from 385m at Ramgha- 8162m at Manaslu Himal. It comprises 35 VDCs and 5 Municipalities. Similarly, it has 11 Ilakas and 2 Constituencies. Headquarter of this district is Besishahar. Lamjung district comprises 3 geographic regions; Mountain, Hill and Plains. The plains of the district are limited along the banks of river and foothills. The slope gradient of the district shows that 35.3% of total land is less steep with the slope up to 20 degree (Table 4.1). It has minimum soil erosion and suitable for cultivation. Remaining, Two third of total land has steep slope of more than 20 degrees and highly prone for soil erosion. Table 4.1: Slope Gradient of Lamjung District Slope Particulars Area Remarks (Degree) Hectare Percentage 0-2 Almost Plain 6429.6 3.8 Minimum soil 2-5 Lower gentle slope 4399.2 2.6 erosion and suitable 5.10 Gentle slope 8698.5 5.2 land for cultivation 10-20 Slope 40100.4 23.7 in hilly area 20-30 Middle slope 61758.0 36.6

30-40 Hilly slope 37393.2 22.1 More than 40 Highly slope 103212.0 6.1 Source: District Soil Conservation Office, 2012

4.2 Geology and Climate

Lamjung district has fragile geology with sand stone, limestone and conglomerates. Similarly, the major types of soil in the district are lateritic, sandy soil, loamy soil and

32 sandy loam. The annual temperature is recorded at 14.1-26.7ºC and the annual precipitation as 2944.23 mm. The district shows 5 climatic zones: Tropical climate (upto 1000 m), Sub-tropical climate (1000-2000 m), Temperate cold climate (2000-3000 m), Sub-Alpine climate (3000-4000 m), and Alpine & Tundra climate (above 4000 m) (DFO 2012). About two third of total land has slope of more than 200 causing more erosion rate of soil in the previously triggered geology.

Forest is the dominant land use covering 40% of total land, that is followed by cultivated land and grazing land comprising respectively 27% and 15 % (DFSP, 2013-2018). The total cultivated area is recorded as 45,050 ha while 14,465 ha area remains agricultural practices. The district is rich in water resources and there exist 13 major rivers and streams (District Profile of Lamjung, 2000). 4.3 Demographic Profile

The total population of Lamjung district is 167,724 with 42079 households of which 75,913 are male and female population is 91811. Hence, the sex ratio is 0.83 and average family size is 3.99. Similarly, the population density is recorded as 99.13 per Sq. Km. Based on ethnicity, Janajati is the dominant caste comprising about half of the population followed by Brahmin/Chhetri and Dalit consisting respectively 31% and 15% (CBS, 2011). The analysis of sub-castes under four broad castes shows that Gurung under Janajati has dominance (32.2 percent) in Lamjung. It is followed by Chhetri and Brahmins, consisting of 15.7 percent and 15 percent respectively (Table 4.2). Similarly, Kumal, Sanyasi, Muslim are minor groups, comprising of less than 1%.

Table 4.2 Population Distribution by Caste/ ethnicity of Lamjung District

Ethnicity Population Ethnicity Population Number Percentage Number Percentage Gurung 53953 32.2 Gharti 3541 2.1 Chhetri 26305 15.7 Magar 3519 2.1 Brahmin 25140 15.0 Dura 3170 1.9 Kami 11982 7.1 Kumal 1421 0.85 Tamang 11865 7.1 Sanyasi 1262 0.75 Sarki 7886 4.7 Muslim 1023 0.61 Newar 6328 3.8 Others 4846 2.9 Damai 5483 3.3 Total 167724 100 Source: National Population Census 2011

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4.4 Land Distribution and Natural Resources The geography of the district is composed of forest, agricultural land, and settlements, grazing land/grass land/meadows, stone/sand areas and snow areas. The land use pattern shows that forest is the dominant land use type in Lamjung covering around 40 percent of total land. It is followed by cultivated land and grazing land comprising respectively 27 percent and 15 percent (Table 4.3). The other type of land use includes snowcapped area, potential land for cultivation, and settlement area. Table 4.3: Land Use Pattern of Lamjung District SN Land use Area Hectare Percent 1 Forest Land 66,216 39.1 2 Cultivated Land 45,050 26.6 3 Grazing Land and Shrub Land 25,154 14.9 4 Potential Land For Cultivation 16,769 9.9 5 Snowcapped Area 5,891 3.5 6 Settlement Area 918 0.5 7 Other (river, road, stream, etc 9,202 5.4 Source: District Agricultural Development Office 2012

4.4.1 Forest Forest area covers 39 percent area of Lamjung district. There are mainly 7 types of forests: coniferous forest, deciduous broad leaved forest, hardwood forest, mixed forest, sal forest, tropical mixed forest, and grazing land. Based on the altitude, forests are categorized into three categories. Various types of forest zones are presented in Table 4.4. Table 4.4: Forest types of Lamjung District Forest Zones Forest type Area (ha) Mid-Hill Forest Deciduous Broad Leaved Forest 3263.3 Sal Forest 5483.6 Tropical Mixed Forest 17336.6 High-Hill Forest Coniferous Forest 3707.5 Hardwood Forest 31717.7 Mixed Forest 3057.0 High-Mountain Forest Coniferous Forest 1233.6 Hardwood Forest 681.7 Mixed Forest 192.6 Grazing Land Source: DFO, 2012

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4.4.2 Agriculture The major crops grown in Lamjung district are cereals, grains, spices, fruits, herbs, etc. The total cultivated area is recorded as 45,050 ha where 14,465 ha is under farm land used for cultivation. Therefore, more than 67 percent of cultivated land is the Pakho which means sloppy land. Large proportion of the farm land, 65.4 percent (Table 4.5), depends on rainfall for irrigation, that type of land is also called as seasonally irrigated land. Table 4.5: Land type use of Lamjung Cultivated Land Type Area (ha) Area (in %) Farm Land 14,465 32.1 Whole Year Irrigated Land 5,000 34.6 Seasonally Irrigated Land 9,465 65.4 Sloppy Land 30,585 67.9 Total Cultivated Land 45,050 26.6 Source: District Agricultural Development Office 2012 4.4.3 Water Resources Water resources are sources of water that are potentially useful. Used of water include agricultural, industrial, household, recreational and environmental activities. Human being required fresh water for their healthy life. Water resource refers to the supply of groundwater and surface water in a given area. Usually groundwater refers to watershed and underground water resource whereas surface water refers to river system, rivulets and streams. Lamjung district is rich in water resources. There are 13 major rivers and streams in the district (Table 4.6). Marsyangdi River is the major drainage system of the district which is also the main tributary of Gandaki River. The study area site 1 lies in the watershed area of Marsyangdi river and site 2 lies in the watershed area of Risti river.

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Table 4.6: Major Rivers and Stream, its Flowing area and Linkage

SN Name of Source/Origin Cross Through (VDC) Mixed off Rivers/Streams with 1 Marsyangdi Tilicho Lake Chamche, Jagat, Syange, Ghermu, Trisuli River (Manang) Bahundanda, Nyangdi, Bhulbhule, Khudi, Besishashar,Bhoteoder, Sundarbazar, Tarkughet 2 Madi River Annapurna Bhorleter, Ramgha Seti range 3 Chepe River Dudhpokhari Dudhpokhari, Bichaur, Kolki, Marsyangdi Ilampokhari, Bhalayakharka, Chakratirtha, Dhamilikuwa 4 Yangdi River Annapurna Bhubhule Bahundanda Marsyangdi Himal 5 Rudi Khola Taprang Singdi, Pasgaun, Bhujung Madi Dharmashala 6 Kisedi Khola Ripe lake Paachowk, Nauthar Dodi 7 Risti Khola Kunchha Kunchha, Jita, Tandring Taksar, Madi (Bhaluwa) Suryapal,Ramgha 8 Pisti Khola Neta Neta, Bangre, Bhorletar Madi 9 Midim Khola Bhujung Bhujung, Ghanpokhari, Madi (Bajerkharka) Uttarkanya, Maling, Bhoje Nalma, Gilung 10 Paundi Khola Neta Koiralaphanta, Marsyangdi (Thansing) Satrasayaphant,Tarku Sundarbazer, Paundi 11 Khudi Khola Lamjung Ghanpokhara, Simpani, Marsyangdi Himal Khudi,Khudibazar 12 Dordi Khola Meme Feleni, Dhodeni,Chiti, Bansar, Marsyangdi Pokhari Nauthar,Shreebhanjyang 13 Naundi Khola Kunchha Kunchha, Parewadanda Paundi Bhanjyang Khola Source : District Profile of Lamjung 2000

4.5 Introduction of the Study Area This study is carried out in two locations Madhya Nepal municipality (the then Jita and Tandrang Taksar VDCs) now Ward No 1,2,3,4,5 which lies in the South western part of district. Jita is surrounded by Neta and Dhuseni VDC on the north, Tandrang Taksar lies

36 in the East, Kunchha (now Sundarbazzer Municipality) lies in the west and Risti VDC of Tanahu district is in the south. Tandrang Taksar is surrounded by Bangre and Bhorletar VDC from the north Samibhaniyang and Suryapal VDC lies in east, Jita lies in the west and Risti VDC of Tanahu district lies in the south. And the Chiti VDC which lies on Center part of Lamjung district surrounded by Hilataksar, Bansar and Dhodeni VDC fom north, Nauthar and Shri Bhanyang lies in east, Udipur,(now Besishar Municipality) Bhotaoard, (now Sundarbazzer) Archalbot VDC lies in south and Gaunshahar (now Besishar Municipality). Chiti have 1299 houeshold with total population 5166 among them 2348 were male and 2818 were female likewise Jita have 578 households and population is 2191 among them 966 were male and 1225 were female and Taksar have 619 household where 1078 are male and 1205 are female (CBS, 2011).

Figure 4.1: Study Area

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CHAPTER V

LIVELIHOOD ASSETS AND STRATEGIES 5.1 Households Livelihood Assets Household assets are the basis for the livelihood of the household. Household with better assets base are considered relatively better off although they are also vulnerable to shocks trend and unforeseen detrimental incidents. The livelihood strategies and subsequent livelihood outcomes are greatly dependent on the household assets as per livelihood framework includes five capitals namely human, physical, financial social, and natural capitals (DFID, 2001). Development and prosperity of nation is directly related to the human power. Development trends cannot be maintained unless the population is effective and able to deliver in a sustainable and inclusive manner. The finding Status of the assets in the study area is given below:

5.1.1 Human Capital

Human capital includes the ones that improves enhances or increases capabilities of the individual in connection with making better livelihood. Education, training and special skills or qualities inherent in the individuals or household are generally considered as human capital. In the study area the villagers were engaged in agriculture and pastoral activities. Eighty percent of the households reported that their main source of livelihood was agriculture. Equally importance was internal labor migration of the entire household under study 47 percent household reported absence of one or more member of the external labor.

Figure 5.1: Sex Composition of Respondent

Source: Field Survey 2016

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Figure 5.1 illustrates the sex composition of respondent according to site. The total numbers of female respondent were 46(30.7%) and male respondent were 104 (69.3%) among total respondents. In Chiti 28 percent were female and in Jita and Taksar 36.8 and 29.8 percent of respondent respectively were female. For the study purpose the study area was divided into three different ecological regions based on the elevation. The respondent were selected from those three region 55(36.7%) from high hills, 55(36.7%) from middle hills and 40(26.7%) from valley. The descriptions of Caste/ethnic composition of the respondents is given in table 5.1

Table 5.1 Composition of Respondents by Caste/Ethnic Group Caste/Ethnicity Frequency Percent Caste/Ethnicity Frequency Percent Brahaman 51 34.0 Thakuri 5 3.3 Chhetri 30 20.0 Tamang 2 1.3 Gurung 25 16.7 Chapang 2 1.3 Dalit 16 10.7 Magar 1 0.7 Newar 10 6.7 Others 3 2.0 Khawas 5 3.3 Total 150 100 Source: Field Survey 2016 Figure 5.2: Main Source of Livelihood

Source: Field Survey 2016

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The figure 5.2 illustrates the main source of livelihood, 80 percent of respondent reported that their main source of livelihood was agriculture whereas 8% of respondent were engage in service sectors 6% of respondent says that their main source of livelihood is remittance. It was found that 47 percent of households have migrant member in aboard. Only 4.7% of respondent were involved in business and only one respondent reported that ‟ only they are adapting various non –agriculture sources but when we ask with is the main source of livelihood they feel comfortable to say agriculture. In addition to that people reported other secondary sources of livelihoods.

Figure 5.3: Literacy Status of the Respondent

70

60

50

40

30 Illaterate

Respondents Literate 20

10

0 Chiti Jita Taksar Literacy Status

Source: Field Survey 2016 Literacy is considered as one of the most important human development indicators. The overall literacy rate of the respondent was 80.7 percent. Figure 5.3 shows the literacy status of the respondent at VDCs level. It was found that 13.3%, 13.15% and 35% of total respondent respectably from Chiti, Jita and Taksar were illiterate, But the respondent passed SLC were high in Taksar flowed by Jita and Chiti (Table 5.2). Education is the backbone of development. In each Ward there was primary schools and in chiti there was higher secondary school and in Jita and Taksar there was secondary school. The above data shows the literacy status of the respondent was satisfactory.

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Table 5.2 Educational Attainment (Among Literate)

Level Chiti Jita Taksar Below SLC 66.1% 63.6% 62.5% SLC 21.5% 27.3% 33.3% Intermediate 10.8% 9.1% 4.1% Bachelor 1.5% - -

Table 5.2 shows the educational attainment of the literate respondents. Majority of the respondent have attended school level education only. The respondents who have passed SLC were nearly one fourth of total literate respondents. Only 10.8%, 9.1% and 4.1% respondent from Chiti, Jita and Taksar have passed intermediate level. Only one respondent have passed bachelor. The education attainment was not satisfactory. 5.1.2 Physical capital Physical capital includes the range of things such as manmade and public infrastructure, household's goods and so on. It is assumed that if the public has easy access to physical assets and bears more households goods they will be very less prone to shocks and stresses. Majority of respondent were framers so it was found that they have more agricultural tools as their physical assets. It was found that 78 percent of total respondent have wooden plough whereas 16% of total respondent have iron plough.During the time of field work hand tractors were also viewed but they were not the property of individual, they were owned by the group of framer. Majority of households 97.3% have kept spade and sickle. Whereas it was reported that 94.7% of respondent have axe. Figure 5.4: Types of Houses

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Figure 5.4 shows the types of houses in different ecological region of the study area it was found that 94.5 percent of the houses in high hill and middle hill were thatched. Whereas in valley the thatched houses were 80 percent, likewise concrete houses in valley were 20%and in the high hill and middle hill there were 5.5% each. Majority of respondent 90.7 percent reported that there houses were thatched and 9.3% reported that their house was made from concrete.

The village has traditional houses made with mud and stone having the roof of corrugated sheets. Majority of the respondent (66%) houses were two stories. Similarly 32.7% houses were with ground floor and only 1.3%of houses were three stories.

Table 5.3: Building Materials of House

Walls Roofs Floors Materials Percent Materials Percent Materials Percent Bricks 10.7 Corrugated sheet 77.3 Mud 69.3 Mud 1.3 Thatched 12 Cemented 30 Stone 88 Cemented 8.7 Wood 0.7 Stone slates 2 Source: Field Survey 2016

Majority of the houses in study area were made from the stone wall with corrugated roofs and the mud floors. In the emerging center of the study area where RCC houses are being built Table 5.3 shows the materials used in the houses in the study areas it was found that 88% of the walls of houses were made up with stone, likewise 10.7%of the walls were constructed by bricks and 1.3%of respondent reported that their wall of house was made from mud. Majority of respondent (77.3%) had their house roof constructed of corrugated sheet whereas 12%, 8.7% and 2% of roof were of thatched, cemented and stone slates. The floors of the houses were made of different materials 69 percent have used mud, 30% have used cement and 0.7% has used wood for the floors.

This shows that the housing structure of the study area is similar to the housing structure of the western hills of Nepal in general.

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Figure 5.5: Types of Latrine

Source: Field Survey 2016

It was found that 99.3% of total respondent have their own latrine. The study area has been declared as the No Open Defection Area. Figure 5.5 shows the types of latrine in the study area. About 57 percent household reported that they have water seal latrine whereas 27.3%have temporary latrine. Only 15.3% of respondent were having pit latrine and 0.7% respondent reported having no toilet. This shows the respondent were quite aware about the needs of latrine. This is good indicator for HDI.

Agriculture was the main source of livelihood so the role of irrigation is important. It was found that 57.3%of total respondent used monsoon rain as the main source of irrigation likewise 36%, 5.3%and 1.3% of total respondent reported that the source of irrigation are Kulo, Cannel and Pond respectively the Figure5.6 shows the irrigations source on different ecology of the study area.

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Figure 5.6: Source of Irrigation

It was found that in high hill majority of respondent 85.5 percent were totally dependent on monsoon rain for the irrigation. Likewise 12.7 percent use kulo, and 1.8 percent use pond for the irrigation, whereas in middle hill 61.8%of the respondent wait for the monsoon for the irrigation, 36.4 percent and 1.8 percent respectively use kulo and pond for the irrigation. In Valley it was found that 8.20% using cannel for irrigation the majority 67.5 percent of respondent reported that they are using kulo for the irrigation and 51.2 percent reported that they are waiting for monsoon rain. In the western hill of Nepal kulo are knows as the temporal cannel of water which is used to transport water to the field but cannel are the cemented ones.

Majority of respondent (90.7%) used piped water for drinking purpose. Among them 54.7% had owned private tap and 34 % use public tap for drinking water. In VDCs level 54.7% and 26.7% respondent from Chiti were found using private and public tap for drinking water. Only 1.3% used river/stream water for drinking. In Jita it was found that 52.6% using private tap and 28.9% were found using public tap. In Taksar 29.8% respondent was drinking water from private tap. Majority of respondents (54%) use public tap for the drinking water. Only 18.4% and 16.2% of respondent from Jita and Taksar were found using river/stream water respectably.

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Figure 5.7: Numbers of Livestock's

90 80

70 60 50 40 30

Percentage of livestoks 20 10 0

Source: Field survey 2016

Livestock framing is the main source of income in study area. Mainly people kept local breed of livestock. Figure 5.7 shows the household having different livestock's in the study area. Majority of respondent (77.3) have kept local buffalos. Local cows were kept by 16.7 percent and 7.3 percent of respondent have improved cow. Oxen were found in 36% household and draft power was kept by 38% households, whereas 79.3% household have kept goat. Local poultry were found in 23.6% household and improved chicken were found in 6% household. If people keep Hybrid breed of livestock then they can earn more from the livestock farming.

5.1.3 Financial Capital

Household with better financial assets or capital have better ability to cope with exigencies and shocks. For the better education 25.2 percent of household send their children to private schools. It was found that 84 percent of total respondent reported that they don't face the economics problem for celebrating the festivals, rites and rituals. In the study area 59.3 percent of respondent reported that they have save the money for medical treatment. The ratio was higher in Taksar that is 78.4 percent in Chiti 61.3 percent and 36.8 percent of Jita respondent reported that they have saved the money for medical treatment. Only 17.3% of total respondent reported that they have invested in social

45 security among them 18.2 percent where from high hill, 10.9 percent were from middle hill and 25 percent were from valley.

Figure 5.8: Membership in Saving and Credit groups

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 5.8 illustrates the number of household having membership in the saving and credit group. They also do financial transaction in those groups they are becoming the friends in the financial difficulties. It was found that 60.7 percent of total respondent households were the member in saving and credit groups. From Taksar 78.4 percent of respondent were found being member of saving and credit group, while in Jita 65.8% and in Chiti 49.3 percent respondent reported that they were the member in saving and credit groups. Jita and Taksar are now municipality so the numbers of saving and credit groups were more in Madhya Nepal then in Chiti because most of the micro-financial and co- operative are giving services in urban areas rather than in rural areas. This shows that the people in study area are developing the habit of saving and doing banking transection.

5.1.4 Social Capital Social capital includes the quantity and quality of social networks, membership in different groups and organization and migration findings. Majority 92%of total respondent were found indigenous to the place. Although the trend of migration within

46 same VDCs was remarkable mainly the migration from high hill and middle hill to valley was common. Only 8% of respondent were found migrant and among them 91.7% make the place as first location of migration whereas 8.3% i.e. only one respondent reported that it was his second location of migration. Majority 82.7% of respondent reported that they were the member in community based organization. Figure 5.9: Types of Organization

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 5.9 illustrates the types of organization where the respondents were the members of community based organization. It was found that 62.4 percent of the respondent reported that they were the member of different social organization such as Community Forest User Groups, Drinking Water User Groups, Youth Clubs, Mothers Groups, Rural Road Construction Committee and so on. The respondent having membership in social and political organization was 24.8 percent. Likewise 4% of the respondents were the member in religious organization only. Respondent having membership in religious and social organization was 4 percent. Similarly 3.2 percent respondents were the member of political and religious organization. Only 1.6 percent respondent reported that they were the member of political organization only which shows the people were involved in social organizations for the betterment of society.

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5.5 Natural Capital Natural capital includes a range of things such as land, water, forest and environmental resources. Among them land is only natural resources which can be controlled and used according to our wise. It was found that almost all the respondent household has their own land. The communities have access to the community forest except ward 6 of Chiti VDC. This exception was due to the debate of ownership. Figure 5.10: Types of Lands

120

100

80 60

40 % % Respondentsof 20 0 Homested Khet Bari Pakho Types of Lands Source: Field Survey 2016

All respondent households reported that they have their own homested land. Figure 5.10 shows the types of land possessed by the respondents. Majority of respondents (95.4%) reported that they have owned khet, where 62.7% was monsoon fed land and 32.7% was fully irrigated land. Bari was owned by 73.3% of respondents. Only 17.3 % respondents have owned pakho. It was found that 90.7% of the total respondent's households reported that they were the owner cum cultivator themselves. Table 5.4 Tenure system of Land

Rented In Rented out Period Percentage Period Percentage

Seasonal 2 Seasonal 6.7 Annual 10 Annual 2

Long Term 0.7 Long Term 1.3

Table 5.4 shows that the rented tenure system of the land in the study areas. It was found that only 12.7% total respondent were tenant. Only 10% of total respondent have rented

48 out their land. It was found that 67 percent of tenant pays the payment to the land owner in Share crops.

The main farming livelihood of the people was found farming, animals husbandry, Poultry, and horticulture where 96%, 92.7%, 3.3% and 20.7% respectively reported that they were engage in those activities. Majority of respondent reported that they sell the products of animal's husbandry although the initiatives have been taken in poultry farming and horticulture to make commercial. Beside that the problem of barden land is increasing day by day so the responsible authority should take necessary steps to resolve the problem soon.

Figure 5.11: Types of Energy Used in the Kitchen

Figure 5.11 shows the type of energy used by the respondent in the study area. In Chiti majority of respondent used firewood and bio-gas as the main source of energy followed by firewood and improved gas and 13.3 percent reported that they use firewood only and it was found that only 8% use improved stove as the main source of energy. Likewise in Jita it was found that 31.6 percent of the respondents were using firewood and bio gas as the main source of energy flowed by use of firewood by 44.7 percent and 23.7 percent use fireweed and improved stove as the main source of energy. In Taksar majority 54 percent

49 of people were found using firewood as the main source of energy in kitchen flowed by firewood and bio gas. This shows that 96% of total respondent were using firewood as the source of energy in the kitchen, although they had made the alternative sources too. In Chiti and the valley area of Jita and Taksar it was found that people were using bio-gas as the alternative source. It was found that subsidy was provided at the time of construction of bio-gas plant in Chiti.

Figure 5.12: Production Sufficiency

Figure 5.12 shows that whether the production is sufficient to the households or not. It was found that 60.7 percent of household have sufficient production. Similarly 39.3% household reported that it was insufficient to the family. It was found that 57.3%, 71% and 56.7% of the respondent respectively from Chiti, Jita and Taksar reported that the production is sufficient. The respondents form hill hills were more insecure then that of valley.

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Figure 5.13 : Food Sufficency Status of Households by Ecological Region

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 5.15 shows the food sufficency status of households by ecological regions of the study area where it was found that 49.1 %, 31.9%and 37.5%of respondent respectively from high hill, middle hill and Valley reported that their production was insufficient. It shows that the People of high hill face the problem of food insufficiency then other two regions.

Household assets are the basic for livelihoods status of human, social, natural, financial and physical assets as the principle livelihood assets determine the livelihood outcomes. When we have glance above the assets then we can concluded that people are trying their best to improve assets despite of the poor infrastructure. All the means of livelihood assets are not week if there is opportunities the people can improve it. There is a need of good mechanism to help the local people which will be easy to cope with the vulnerabilities. The problem of depopulation is affecting the livelihood of the people residing in high hill areas of the study areas which is resulting the change in land-cover.

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CHAPTER VI

CHANGING CLIMATIC SCENARIO IN LAMJUNG

6.1 Trend of Climatic Variables Variation in precipitation is observed in Nepal within short distances (Shrestha et al., 2000). Nepal's precipitation is affected by two major air movements. The highest rain occurs when monsoon comes from Bay of Bengal and the western disturbance during the winter season affects mostly the western parts of the country and results in snowfall in the high mountains and the Himalayas. The interaction of complex topography with monsoon and westerly weather system result in the variation in spatial distribution of rainfall. The climatic variation in spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and its trend over Nepal is due to the interaction of the complex topography with monsoon and westerly disturbances systems (Practical action 2009).

There is a large spatial variation in an annual rainfall over Nepal ranging from less than 150 mm to more than 5000 mm. Nepal receives highest monthly precipitation in July and lowest in November. The analysis of data from 1976 to 2005 shows 79.6 percent of annual precipitation occurred during monsoon whereas 4.2 percent, 3.5 percent and 12.7 percent during post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon respectively (Practical action, 2009). During winter the cold ascending air masses above Tibetan plateau along cold sloping surface is pumped causing winter monsoon in the surrounding surface and during summer the hot descending air masses above this plateau cause a high influence in global and regional winter and summer atmospheric circulation. There is a high influence of Tibetan plateau in Asian monsoon. The mechanical and thermal forcing of Tibetan plateau could influence atmospheric phenomena in Nepal. The winter precipitation is found highest in far west and lowest in southern part of central and eastern development regions. The wind ward side receives more rainfall while the lee ward side receives less. The mean annual rainfall of Nepal was found to be 1857.6 mm with the highest rainfall site recorded at Lumle Agriculture Research Centre (LARC) in Dhikurpokhari VDC of Kaski district with mean annual rainfall of 5402.8 mm. The lowest rainfall site was recorded in Lomangthan VDC of Mustang district with mean annual rainfall of 143.6 mm. Both of those highest and lowest rainfall sites of the country are in Annapurna region (Practical action, 2009).

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Nepal experiences the monsoon from June to September when most of the days are cloudy with heavy rainfall. The amount of rainfall varies from place to place because of topographic variations. The period from October to November is considered as a post monsoon season which is a period of transition from summer to winter. During October the country receives a few spell of post monsoon thunder showers similar in character of pre monsoon. The winter months December to February are dry with clear skies. However few spells of rain do occur during those months. During March to May, the country experiences pre monsoon thunder showers. The pre monsoon rainfall activities are more frequent in hilly region than in the Terai (Practical action, 2009).

The arrival of monsoon rain increases the temperature making May or early June the hottest. The temperature starts decreasing from October and reaches the minimum in December /J T T

- Thakmarpha in Mustang district. The average temperature in Nepal decr increase from east to west (FAO, 2010).

T x T

T lready been observed in the himalayan glaciers

Available time series data on precipitation and temperature from various metrological stations around Lamjung district were collected for the study. The data used in this study were monthly precipitation and monthly maximum and minimum temperature that were published from the Department of Hydrological and Meteorology (DHM); it is the only authentic institution under government of Nepal from where meteorological data can be collected.

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Figure 6.1 Locations of the Metrological and Hydrological Stations

6.1.1 Precipitation analysis From these monthly precipitation, annual values were calculated as the average of January to December and the seasonal values were calculated based on four distinct seasons in Nepal, viz., pre-monsoon(March-May), monsoon(June-September),post monsoon (October-November) winter (December- following year February). The spatial and temporal distribution in seasonal precipitation study over Nepal was carried out by Practical Action Nepal (2009) and depicted the seasonal precipitation a trend varies across Nepal.

The analysis made from the observation of 30 years rainfall data of different stations of western hills from the time period of 1985 to 2014 is shown in graphs in seasonal basis which is presented in ANNEXS 1

The findings of graphs are summarized in the following table in terms of the linear regressions, R-squared, P- value, mean and confidence interval for seasonal precipitation.

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Table 6.1 Linear regressions, R-squared value, and CI for seasonal precipitation

Linear regressions, R-squared value, mean and CI for seasonal precipitation Annual Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Winter Bandipur y= -1.9065x+5570.2 -0.1688x+634.42 -1.6958x+3464.7 -1.6958x+3464.7 -1.2445x+2560.3 R2 0.0011 0.0003 0.0002 0.0436 0.0592 p-value 0.86 0.93 0.85 0.26 0.16 CI -23.90,20.09 -4.29,3.96 -17.82,21.27 -4.76,1.37 -4.29,0.76 Damauli y= -5.8173x+13417 -1.5523x+3456 -2.9872x+7282.2 0.0766x-95.825 -1.3544x+277.4 R2 0.0332 0.0094 0.0148 0.0002 0.062 p-value 0.33 0.61 0.52 0.94 0.18 CI -17.96,6.32 -7.71,4.61 -12.42,6.45 -2.34,2.49 -3.39,0.68 Gharedhunga y= -1.5908x+6273.4 0.735x+244.86 1.0257x+480.03 -1.0049x+2108.7 -1.6852x+3439.8 R2 0.0013 2E-05 0.0007 0.0174 0.0998 p-value 0.85 0.98 0.89 0.50 0.10 CI -19.03,15.84 -6.19,6.33 -14.58,16.63 -4.04,2.03 -3.72,0.35 Khairenitar y= -12.364x+27022 -3.9927x+27022 -6.4757x+14643 -0.691x+1469.9 -1.2043x+2472.7 R2 0.0962 0.0404 0.0415 0.0075 0.0413 p-value 0.09 0.28 0.28 0.64 0.28 CI -27.03,2.30 -11.52,3.54 -18.52,5.57 -3.77,2.39 -3.44,1.04 Khudi y= -21.009x+45356 -2.61x+5637.2 -15.906x+34527 -0.6617x+1435.5 -1.8315x+3756.7 R2 0.1703 0.0212 0.121 0.0061 0.0592 p-value 0.02 0.44 0.05 0.68 0.19 CI -38.96,-3.05 -9.48,4.26 -32.50,0.68 -3.93,2.61 -4.65,0.99 Kunchha y= 5.7134X-8821.4 3.4416x-6477 3.5898x-5146.2 0.0881x-82.392 -1.406x+2884.1 R2 0.0107 0.039 0.0055 0.0001 0.0531 p-value 0.58 0.29 0.69 0.94 0.22 CI -15.60,27.02 -3.17,10.05 -15.17,22.35 -2.71,2.89 -3.70,0.89 Malepatan y= -1.2737x+6317.2 -0.3196x+1128.5 -0.9244x+4890.2 1.2149x-2261.9 -1.2445x+2560.3

R2 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0231 0.0592 p-value 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.42 0.19 CI -27.35,24.80 -6.95,6.31 -25.38,23.53 -1.84,4.27 -3.16,0.67

Total annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation for various locations in western hills of Lamjung, Tanahun and Kaski districts were statistically analyzed. The total annual precipitation of Bandipur Damauli, Gharedhunga, Khairenitar, Khudi and Malepatan were

55 found to have decreased, whereas that of Kunchha was found increased. The highest decline in precipitation was observed in Khudi whereas highest increase in precipitation was observed in Kunchha both the places lies in the Lamjung district. The measures of goodness of fit (R2) for the linear equation were found to be positive in all stations. Which shows that the co-efficient of determination. In this study, there was a tendency towards decreasing precipitation in overall seasons however, the( p>0.05) was found in annual rainfall in Khudi which shows there is significant difference but the other station p-value was found above 0.05 which indicates no significant change.

The Pre- Monsoon (March – May) precipitation analysis shows an increasing trend at Kuncha and Gharedhunga whereas a decreasing trend at Bandipur, Damauli, Khairenitar, Khudi and Malepatan. With maximum increasing in Pre-monsoon precipitation trend observed at Kunchha and maximum decrease in Pre-monsoon precipitation observed at Khairenitar. There was no significant change in pre –monsoon.

The Monsoon (June- Sept) precipitation trend analysis shows an increasing trend at Bandipur, Gharedhunga and Kuncha and a decreasing trend at Damauli, Khairenitar Khudi and Malepatan. With maximum increasing in Monsoon precipitation trend observed at Kunchha and maximum decrease in Monsoon precipitation observed at Khudi. The monsoon precipitation P-value was 0.05 which shows significant change in Khudi.

The Post – monsoon precipitation trend analysis shows an increasing trend at Damauli, Kuncha and Malepatan and a decreasing trend at Bandipur, Gharedhunga, Khairenitar and Khudi. With maximum increasing in Post-monsoon precipitation was observed at Malepatan and maximum decrease in Post - monsoon precipitation observed at Bandipur. ‟ -monsoon precipitation

The winter precipitation trend analysis shows a decreasing trend in all of the above seven stations with maximum decrease in winter precipitation observed at Khudi. There was no significant change seen. Overall the the rainfall trend of the selected station was decreasing by 5.51mm per year.

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Figure 6.2: Average Precipitation of the Stations

Source: DHM

Figure 6.2 illustrates the average annual rainfall of the selected station. The annual rainfall of Gharedhunga, Khudi and Kunchha of Lamjung district were found 3093.94 mm, 3349.14 mm and 2602.5 mm respectively. Similarly the annual rainfall of Bandipur, Damauli and Khairenitar of Tanahun district were found 1758.19 mm, 1785.09 mm and 2300.4 mm respectively. Likewise the annual average rainfall of Malepatan of Kaski district was found to be 3770.52 mm, which is the highest recorded average annual precipitation among the stations under consideration in this study. It was found that 78.5%, 15%, 3.7% and 2.7% of rainfall occurred in monsoon, pre-monsoon, post- monsoon and winter seasons respectively. Likewise the study made by Practical action in 2009 shows that in those seven stations between1976-2005 it was found that 77.6%, 15.6%, 3.6% and 2.9% of rainfall occurred in monsoon, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter respectively. This data shows the rainfall ratio is slightly increased in monsoon and post-monsoon. Whereas a tiny decreased was observed in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall in the last decade.

6.1.2 Temperature analysis The temperature analysis was done for 30 years from 1985 to 2014 taking into consideration the maximum and minimum temperatures with the data obtained from Department of Hydrology and Metrology. The maximum and minimum annual air

57 temperatures recorded from five different stations of Tanahun district (Damauli, Khairenitar and Bandipur), Lamjung district(Khudi bazar) and kaski district (Malepatan) were statistically analyzed in terms of the linear regressions, R-squared value, mean and confidence interval as shown in following Table 6.3.

Table 6.2 Linear regressions, R-squared value, and CI for temperatures Linear regressions, R-squared value, mean and CI for Average Maximum and Minimum temperatures Locations Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Bandipur y= -0.0714x+168.93 0.0257x-36.141 R2 0.1669 0.0211 p-value 0.42 0.78 Mean 25.3 15.6 CI -0.29,0.15 -0.21,0.26 Damauli y= 0.1345x-240.14 -0.1582x+335.29 R2 0.3767 0.1668 p-value 0.04 0.21 Mean 30.2 17.5 CI 0.004,0.265 -0.42,0.10 Khairenitar y= 0.0178x-6.3395 0.0452x-73.381 R2 0.0369 0.5244 p-value 0.30 0.0004 Mean 29.2 17 CI -0.017,0.054 0.028,0.061 Khudi y= 0.0037x+20.242 0.0009x+13.872 R2 0.0013 5E-05 p-value 0.95 0.45 Mean 27.6 15.7 CI -0.05,0.05 -0.03,0.08 Malepatan y= 0.0276x-28.286 0.0358x-56.709 R2 0.2494 0.3859 p-value 0.004 0.000 Mean 26.9 15 CI 0.009,0.046 0.018,0.053

The graph of the temperature is given below in ANNEXS II

The analysis of temperature trends in the above five different stations over the time period of 30 years shows that the maximum temperature is increasing in all the stations. The highest increase in maximum temperature was observed at Damauli of Tanahun district. Similarly, the analysis of the minimum temperatures in the above five different stations reveals an increasing trend in Khairenitar, Khudi, Malepatan and Bandipur and a decreasing trend in Damauli. The highest increase in minimum temperature was observed

58 in Khairenitar and the decline in minimum temperature was observed in Damauli by - 0.15. Maximum temperature of Damauli and Malepatan and minimum temperature of Khairenitar and Malepatan were found having significant differences whereas other has no significant change. All station had positive R2 value which shows co-efficient of determination.

Practical action Nepal, (2009) in its similar study in Khudi and Khairenitar stations reported an increase in maximum temperature which is consistent with the findings of this study in those two stations. Similarly the minimum temperature of Khairenitar and Khudi was found increasing which is in good agreement with the reports of Practical action Nepal. The spatial pattern of maximum and minimum temperature trends is in increasing trend almost in the entire country. High increasing trend was observed around the Lamjung (Practical Action, 2009). This study also similar result and have the good agreement to the report.

The analysis shows an overall increasing trend in temperature and a decreasing trend in rainfall which is also the general assumption. Increase in temperature can be correlated with the increased evapo-transpiration which could be the reason for drying up of water resources and reducing the availability of soil moisture which could increase hazard events like drought, soil erosion. As we know that the main source of livelihood of the people residing in the study area is agriculture, this is going to affect the agriculture sectors in this area.

6.2 Climatic Condition of the study area

To know the climatic condition of the study area interpolation has been done by using Inverse Distance Weighted IDW tools in Arc GIS 10.1. Interpolation is the re aggregation of the data from one set of polygons' to another set of polygons. IDW interpolation determines cell values using a linearly weighted combination of a set of sample points. It is manly used to make assumption those things that are close to one another are more alike than those that are farther part.

6.2.1 Precipitation Trend of Study Areas

The isohyetal maps shows the precipitation of the study area which was obtained by the interpolation through Arc GIS.

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Figure 6.3Annual Rainfall of Study Area

Figure 6.4 Pre-Monsoon Figure 6.5 Monsoon

Figure 6.6 Post-Monsoon Figure 6.7 Winter

The average precipitation of Lamjung district is 2944.23mm. The annual precipitation of the study area is shown on figure 6.3. The northern part of Chiti receives the rain between 3150-3350mm, likewise the northwestern part of Taksar receives rain between 2750- 2950mm and remaining other part of the study area receives the rain between 2550- 2750mm. The pre-Monsoon Precipitation is shown on figure 6.4, northwestern part of

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Taksar receives more rain i.e. 425-450mm and other part of both sites receives rain between 375-400mm.

Monsoon precipitation of the study area is shown on figure 6.5. Eastern part Jita receives less rain between 1700-1900mm but northern part of Chiti receives more rain during monsoon that is 2500-2700mm and other part of both sites receives rain between 2100- 2300mm. Post –Monsoon precipitation is shown on figure 6.6 where it was found between 80-95mm in south eastern part of Jita/Taksar and southern part of Chiti. The other part of the study area receives 95-110mm rain. Winter precipitation is more in the northern part of Chiti which receives 90-100mm rain whereas all other part of both study area receives 70-80mm winter rain which is shown on figure 6.7.

6.2.1 Temperature Trend of the Study Area

The Maps shows the maximum and minimum temperature of the study area. The average maximum temperature of the L

Figure 6.8 Maximum Temperature Figure 6.9 Minimum Temperature

Figure 6.8 x T x - x J T - T imum temperature is shown on figure 6.9. Except the small area of south western part of Taksar other part of study area has te - . This shows that Jita /Taksar are hotter than Chiti. The average temperature was found more than that of district.

6.3 Perception of Local People on Climatic Indictors The respondents were asked to mention the respond on various climatic and environmental indicators based on their observation.

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Figure 6.10: Observed Perception on Climatic Indicators

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 6.10 shows the observed perception of respondent on climatic condition. It is based on the personal observation and experiences of the respondents. It was found that 89.3% of respondent reported that the temperature is been increasing. Whereas 81.3% have reported that the rainfalls have been decreased. The respondents observed Ground water availability and river flow have been decreased, 87.3%, and 80.7% reported that ground water and river flow have been decreased respectively. Likewise 62.7% and 83.3% of total respondent reported that Flood /Landslide and Drought have been increased. Some respondent reported that the climatic condition is stable. Few respondent reply that the do not know whether the climatic condition is increasing, decreasing or remaining same.

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Figure 6.11: Effects of Climatic Variations Observed in Households

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 6.11 shows the effect of climate variation observed in family by the respondent. It was found that all climatic variations have effect negatively in their family. Majority 90% of responded reported that change in temperature have affected negatively. Similarly 92%, 89.3%, 86.7%, reported that there have been negative effect on family due to change in drought, rainfall(timing)and rainfall(impact) but in flood 45.7 %,40%and 14.7% respondent reported that negative none and positive impact on their family. The reason behind the flood is that the study area was not flood prone area and the thinking of people to think positive effect is that when more rain occurs then there will be flood which increases the production.

Figure 6.12: Effect of Environmental Condition on Households

Soil fertility 100 80 Alien plant 60 Slope failures species 40 None 20 0 Positive Negative Colour of rivers Forests after rainfall

Crops /livehood pests

Source: Field Survey 2016

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Figure 6.12 shows the effect of environmental condition on the Households. Among those environmental condition except forest all the other environmental parameters, soil ferity, slope failures, crops/livehoods pests, color of river and alien plants species have negative effect on the household. Slope failures have been more frequent and 66.7% of total respondent reported negative effect on the family. Likewise in forest majority of respondent reported more forest coverage and it was found 74 % positive effect. In crops/live hoods pests also majority respondent response on fewer pests and it was reported that 82% negative effect on family. 95.3% have reported that the color of river have been dirtier due to which 93.3% of respondent reported the negative effect. And 58% of respondent reported that the alien plants species have been more than before and 75.3% of total respondent reported that it is causing negative effect on household.

From all we can conclude that the people perception are within the line of the climatic data. Slowly the people are observing the change of climate in their locality. Majority of the respondent argue that the climatic variables are change as a result of climate change and the impact is being seen in their day to day activities. The main source of livelihood in the study area is agriculture, which is very sensitive to the climate change. Majority of the Respondents response the effect of the climatic variations and environmental condition on the household was negative. Thus we can say that the livelihood of the people residing in the study area is affected by the change in climate.

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CHAPTER-VII

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LIVELIHOOD

7.1 Impact of Climate Change

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment and livelihood of the people. Nepal lies in a geographical region of extremities. Extreme topographical variations and strong seasonality of the monsoon are typical features of Nepal. Because of the high sensitivity of the mountain environment, even a small change in the climate can have a huge impact on the environment affecting the livelihood of the people and development activities. The impacts of the climate change are already visible in Nepal although it's contribution to global warming are negligible, as a results it is forced to brunt of negative impact of climate change in the form of increased ice-melting and threats of GLOF, deforestation and desertification, denudation, loss of precious flora and fauna, drought, landslide and depletion of water, habitat loss and impact on productivity of soil, and consequent migration of people.

Almost 80% of the population in Nepal derives its livelihood directly from agriculture. Although the contributions of agriculture to the national GDP has been decreasing during the recent decades. The agrarian society, primarily in the rural areas has the strongest bond with the eco-system which is sensitive to the climate change, people heavily dependent on agriculture, forest and livestock. So certain change in the climatic pattern will ultimately leave a huge impact on the livelihood.

The NAPA has identified six majors' areas that are impacted by Climate Change. They are Agriculture and food Security, Water resources and energy, Climate induced disasters, Forest and Biodiversity, Pubic health, Urban Settlement and infrastructure and Cross- Cutting Sectors. Climate change impact in this study is based on the concept of NAPA process. The thematic areas of this study are similar to the thematic area of the NAPA process but the issue in this study is based on the impact on livelihood.

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7.1.1 Impact on Agriculture

The majority (80.6%) of respondent respond that their main source of livelihood is agriculture. It was found that agriculture and livestock farming was the main activity of the people residing in the study area. The main source of irrigation of the study area was monsoon rain. The Nepalese agriculture is depends on the monsoon rain. Less amount of rain and variability of rainfall between years could be the prime cause for decrease in agriculture production and increased in agriculture production is due to the use of improved seeds and chemical fertilizers. The use of chemical fertilizer helps to increase the GHGs which will impact the livelihood of the people. Solar energy, air precipitations are important factors for the agriculture production, the change in those factors harms the agriculture. Extremes climatic condition along with drought and new diseases are the challenges for the agriculture system.

During drought and delay in the one set of rain become dry and lack of precipitation hinders seeds cultivation and germination of the cultivated seeds. Even weeks delay in the onset of rain was found to have significant difference on the harvest and has deprivation of household livelihood. Crops failure and loss of livestocks threaten livelihood of the people who are already vulnerable and food in-secure.

Many studies have revealed that drought condition in Nepal have been severely affecting agriculture production (Malla 2008). The paddy and wheat production in Nepal were adversely affected by drought in the year 2005/2006 the production of paddy and wheat decline by 2% and3.3% respectively. Similarly high intensity storms /wind storms were experienced in the months of April destroying large quality of maize plants in the farm but now the local people have noted that the frequency intensity and the duration of the storms have decreased now (Regmi, 2007).

The analysis of crop calendar shows a shift in sowing planting and Harvesting (Table 7.1). The sowing and Harvesting time of summer crops such as paddy, maize, millet and potato has been delayed up to one months and the summer potato has almost disappear. Similarly the sowing and harvesting time for the winter crops such as the wheat, barley and mustard have been shifted earlier by two weeks. In focus group discussion and by key informant interview we can conclude that the cropping calendar of agriculture farming is highly changing due to the increase in temperature and variation in the date of monsoon rain.

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Table: 7.1 Change in Sowing and Harvesting Time

Crops Months JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Plant Before Sow Harvest Rice ing Plant Now sow Harvest ing Harv Before Sow Wheat est Harv Now Sow est Before Sow Harvest Maize Now Sow Harvest Before Sow Planting Harvest Millet Plant Now Sow Harvest ing Before Harvest Sow Barley Now Harvest Sow Potato Planting Planting( (rainy) Harvest Before Winter) Harvest (rainy)

(Winter) Planting (Rainy) Harvest Planting Now Harvest (Rainy) (Winter) (Winter)

Source: Field Survey, 2016

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7.1.2 Impact on Water Resources

Change in precipitation and temperature has deep rooted relation with the water cycle. Due to increase in temperature after rain fall water is absorbed by top soil and there is increased on runoff of the water. Water could not be absorbed by ground due to which the ground water could not be recharged an water table will decreased which leads drying of water resources day by day. Rainfall patterns have been changed in the recent decades. The monsoon rains are delayed and continuing rainfall for more days, which was a characteristic feature of the monsoon seasons, has almost disappeared. Similarly, the winter rains have also become unpredictable and lower in quantity. Due to erratic rainfall and increase in temperature leading drought, increase natural hazards, water supply is disturbed and people's livelihood is affected. In the study 87.3 percent of total respondent reported that the ground water has been decreased. Similarly 80.7 percent reported that the river flow have been decreased due to which the scarcity of water is increasing and people are facing the problem of drinking water in high hills. In Taksar VDC the people are coping by harvesting rain water where as in Chiti and Jita peoples have brought pipe water from another VDC that is in Chiti from Hila Taksar and in Jita from Neta.

Water sources are critical components in ensuring sustainable rural livelihood especially in condition where there is declining rainfall. The study also sought to understand the state of water sources in relation to climate change. In focus group discussion participants unanimously agreed that water availability was generally decreasing and it is attributed to reduction rainfall. Majority of the people residing in the study area being farmers were dependent on agriculture and they were facing problems. People shared that change in water availability has affected the livelihood of the family especially who had large family size. Due to decline in agriculture production, food security has been the major issue. Small family has managed somehow but for people with large family less food means problem in their livelihood. The natural springs have been decline water yield in recent year must of the natural spout (water tap) were totally disappear during winter seasons. Before more or less water remains in the entire natural spout taps during dry seasons. The problem of water resources in high hills of Jita and Taksar the people are forced to leave the place and migrated to another places. Due to lack of water local people have left to keep more livestock and do vegetable farming, beside that the orange trees in the study area have been dried which is affecting the livelihood of the people

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7.1.3 Impact on Income and Overall Economy

Economic growth is dependent on the agricultural sectors, which is sensitive in the climate. Extreme climatic events threaten lives and livelihoods of the people as we know that more than 80 percent of the people residing in the study area are directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Many respondents said that income from the agriculture and livestock is decreasing. So they are searching the alternatives sources of income people are moving in valley in search of more production and some people are been migrated to other part of country. Many young have been gone aboard and different semi urban and urban areas within countries for employment. Due to remittance their living standard seems better than before. It was found that at least one family member have gone out from home to earn livelihood fifty four percent household have reported that they received the money help from their migrant family member. The governmental and non-governmental organizations have various program among them EbA has started banana and bamboo farming in the bank of Marsyandhi river for the Chepang community. The production and productivity of livestock and agriculture have been declining. Because of that the key informants argued that the gap between rich and poor is increasing. The economically able people are changing their occupation and seek for better alternatives of agriculture and livestock but those people who have no access to such alternatives are threatened from change in climate. It was found that 41.3 percent of respondent have adapted other occupation for additional sources of income.

The low income and subsistence users have being facing very hard time to afford for their livelihood. This is a great challenges to cope with climate change induced hazard and extreme events. The livelihood of Nepali people is heavily depending on climate sensitive area such as agriculture, forest and livestock. Human being are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns and indirectly through changes in quality of water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystem, agriculture, livelihood and infrastructure. The developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change because of poverty, lesser capacity to adapt and lack of strong preventive measures, resources and strategies.

7.1.4 Impact on Biodiversity and Forest

It was found that biodiversity was affected from climate change especially by change in temperature and rainfall pattern. Which creates favorable environment for pests, diseases and invasive species to emerge spread and encroach the agricultural land, forest land and

69 other pasture land. Respondents experience is that invasive species is spreading vary fast and damaging both agricultural and forest land people are using chemical for increasing production and get rid from the damage of species furthermore it was found that plant species which did not exists in the location before where also found in study area such as Banmara (Ageretena Adenophora), Kuro (Bidens Pilosa) and Nilogandhe (Ageratum Houstonianium). Traditional species of crops like verities of paddy have been lost and disappeared. New species which are best fitted in warm temperature were grown up, for example Anadi a breed of rice which was grown in valley before can be cultivated in the high hill in the study area. Moreover those plant species and crops species which were only farmed in warm temperature and summer season were also cultivated in winter season but invasive species and pets and parasites had increases. The local species of birds and animals have been affected from the climate change. Local people conclude that vulture has been disappeared they have not seen it from last two years. The main reason of the disappearance is the medicine uses for the curing of the sick animal's as a result entire eco-system have been affected. Global warming is likely to be the greatest cause of species extinctions.

Vegetation pattern (distribution, structure and ecology) of forest are controlled by the climate. The Third Assessment Report of IPCC (2001) concluded that the forest eco- system could be seriously impacted in future. Mangos are tropical fruits and can be grown in hot climate a I ung district mangos were used to be grown on low altitude area but in recent year due to increase in temperature in higher altitude area the mangos are being cultivated in the height of 1250m.Most of the respondent reported the loss of forest species such as Kafal (myrica-exulcuta), Kaulo (maese-chisia), Lapsi (chioerospondia-axillarias), pipal (ficus-religiosa). Forests are the source of NTFPs (including medical plants). Now the people reported that due to the invasive alien species of grasses and bushes the herbs such as Amla (Emblica officinals), Nagalo (Arundinaria intermelia) and other species are in the stage of extinctions. Invasive alien species modifies the micro-habitat, changes physical environment condition and releases certain metabolites that make the chemistry of the soil unsuitable for germination of other species. Invasive alien species are threating biological diversity, eco-system and habitats of the species and it is impacting the livelihood of the peoples.

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7.1.5 Impact of Human Health

Nepal is one of the climate change prone countries in the world. Geophysical and socio- economic condition of the country have predetermined vulnerability to drought, earthquake, epidemic, fire, flood, forest fire, landslide and other climate related events effecting human and animals health's. It was found that in study area intense hit have been experienced for the last few years which result in development of different kind of diseases, insect and effecting human health. Allergies and itching problem are increasing particularly in women and children. It was noted that different temperate diseases have been increasing. There were no mosquitoes in high hill area of both sites six to seven years ago but now villagers are using mosquitos' nets. Mosquito's flies, moths and alien insect are increasing which is resulting increasing in frequency of illness among children such as fever, chicken fox, diarrheoa, urinary track infection. The water and air borne diseases' are increasing every year. Same result was obtain by the study carried out by Regmi (2009) on Kaski and Tanahu districts reported that increase in the number of mosquitos and flies which is resulting in frequent illness among children.

It was found that expenditure over medical has been increasing every year. Only 59.3 percent had some saving for the medical treatment and 17.3 percent had invested in social security. This shows the vulnerable condition of the people. Increasing expenditure is creating presser on household to search for the alternatives. Declining domestic water supply due to climate change result the poor sanitation increases in prevalence of vector and water borne diseases were reported. This leads in the increasement of vector and water borne diseases in the study area. This will impact the livelihood of the people residing in the study areas. Moreover youth population is migrating towards semi urban, urban areas as well as in abroad for employment to cover the increasing expenses.

7.2 Vulnerabilities

Vulnerabilities refer to the situation of the threat to livelihood. It is believed that sustainable livelihood can be achieved by minimizing the vulnerability situation and maximizing coping capacity of the household. The reports published by the MoE, 2010 provide information on vulnerability to climate change. The study identified sets of direct indicators from existing secondary national database basket at the district level to evaluate the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The report categorized the vulnerability into five different categories: very high, high, moderate, low and very low levels. This

71 report made analysis of different districts where Lamjung was kept at low, high risk and moderate risk level on human, ecological and combined sensitive aspects respectively.

In the same report climate risk exposure analysis was made taking into consideration six particulars, namely temperature / rainfall, ecology, landslide, flood, drought and Glof. Lamjung was placed in very high risk category for temperature/rainfall, landslide and Glof; and very low for ecology, flood and drought. Overall the report placed Lamjung in very high risk category combining all these aspects.

Likewise in a similar comparison of adaptive capacity, Lamjung was placed in moderate level in socio-economic adaptive capacity, very high in adaptive technology and high in adaptive infrastructure technology. This implies that although Lamjung is a very sensitive area to climate change, the people are trying their best to cope up with the changing climate of that region.

The Vulnerability index of the study area was calculated based on the framework developed by the (EbA SSC) Nepal Pilot Project under Ministry of Environment, the calculation of the Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity was based on the approach mentioned in the chapter data analysis. Climate Change awareness was also calculated for the purposed to find the adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability study is based on the framework developed by (EbA SSC) as mention on its report. IPCC has defined exposure as the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variation. Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected either adversely or beneficially by climate –related Stimuli. Similarly adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate the potential damage from it, to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequences. Vulnerability depends upon access and control over different livelihood assets like physical, financial, social, human and natural. Women and poor compared to well off and men tend to have limited access to resources that would enhance their capacity to cope and adapt. Thus, threes dimension are integrate in the vulnerability assessment. For the calculation of Vulnerability (Exposure × Sensitivity)-Adaptive Capacity formula was used being based on the project report. A household vulnerability index was developed to indicate the extent to which households at the study site are susceptible from the climate change. For calculation of Vulnerability following indictors of each of the three dimensions (Figure 7.1) were taken into consideration.

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Figure7.1. Indicators of climate change vulnerability and their inter-linkages

EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY

 Change in rainfall  Soil fertility

 Change in timing of rainy season  Change in natural environment  Change in temperature  Irrigation  Drought episodes  Livelihood sources

 Flooding events  Slope failures

× VULNERABILITY

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY  Climate change awareness

 Information/training  Surplus production  Response

Indicators of the components with their measurement and score were calculated being based on the project report of EbA SSC Nepal Pilot Project. The selected indicators represent both the biophysical condition of the region and the socioeconomic condition of the local communities. Indicators of the components with their measurement unit and score are given in Annexes III. The findings are summarized in Table 7.2 below. Table 7.2 Score of Index Index Site 1(Chiti) Site 2 (Jita/Taksar) Overall Exposure 0.53 0.59 0.56 Sensitivity 0.41 0.46 0.44 Adaptive Capacity 0.12 0.12 0.12 Climate Change Awareness 0.25 0.32 0.28 Vulnerability 0.09 0.15 0.12 Source: Field Survey 2016

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Table 7.2 shows the score of the index of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of households at selected sites. Exposure index was 0.53 and 0.59 respectively in site 1 and site 2 and the overall score was 0.56, the index varied from 0- 0.67. The sensitivity index was 0.41 and 0.46 respectively in site 1 and site 2 and the overall sensitivity score was 0.44, the index ranges from 0.13-0.60. Likewise the adaptive Capacity index of Chiti and Jita/Taksar was 0.12 and the overall adaptive capacity index was also 0.12, the maximum and minimum range of the index varies from 0-0.5. The Climate change awareness index was 0.25, the index range varies from0-67 in site 1 and 0.32, the inex range varies from 0-78 in site 2 and overall it was 0.28 in the study area. Whereas the Vulnerability index was 0.09 in site 1 and 0.15 in site 2, the overall vulnerability index was 0.12. The maximum and minimum range varies between 0.35- 0.18.

According to the baseline project report of EbA SSC, where 27 household from each site were undertaken. The exposure index average was 0.67 in site 1and 0.61 in site 2. The sensitivity index was 0.53 in site 1 and 0.55 in site 2, similarly adaptive capacity index was 0.13 in site 1and 0.09 in site 2. The climate change awareness index was 0.16 in site1and 0.07 in site 2. The vulnerability index was 0.25 in site 1and 0.26 in site 2. From this we can conclude that the levels of vulnerability have been improved although there were some fluctuations in the index score of the baseline report to that of ours study.

When we make the comparison of this index with the report published by (MoE, NAPA, 2010) Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Nepal has more classified categories. By the nature of our content we had kept our index on the combined categories and when we compare the value developed by MoE to our value we know the condition of vulnerability of the study area. The report have categories the value of indexes in 5 levels they were very high, high, moderate, low and very low the score differ in different indices. Exposure index of the study area fall between 0.500-0.681, this shows the level of exposure in the study area falls in high risk area But, Lamjung district fall in very high risk. The Sensitivity index of study area falls between 0.302-0.573, which shows the level of sensitivity of the study area also falls in the high risk are but the Lamjung District was on moderate risk area. Similarly in the adaptive capacity the study area also falls in high risk region because the calculated index falls within 0.064-0.166. Whereas Lamjung lies in the moderate risk region in term of combine adaptive capacity.

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7.3 People's Perceptions

Majority of the interviewed respondent (83.6%) said that the increasing trend of temperature which also match with the last 30 years trend analysis of temperature. Similarly, other respondent said decreased and same as in the past because they may not have the habit of working in their agricultural lands or exposing to sun's rays. Most of the interview respondent and focus group discussion (FDG) participants observed decrease on rainfall frequency and indicated that this was becoming a major problem during crop planting season. The decreasing trend of winter precipitation reduces the cropping intensity and cropping pattern which directly impacts the food security in the study areas.

Similarly, dominant of the respondent (68%) said that the agricultural production is decreased, 6.6% said increasing and 25.4% said there is no significant change in agricultural production. The erratic climate resulting in incidence of disease, nutrient loss because of soil erosion, and decreased precipitation, may be the major causes of reduction in agricultural production. The increasing production perception may be due to the application chemical fertilizer and pesticide. Similarly, no significant change category may include those respondents who do not have their agriculture holdings or if they have it may be in nominal scale.

Soil erosion, hail stone, drought, erratic wind is the major disaster in the study area. Drying of water resources was the major climatic hazards of the area which cause substantial decrease in water availability. Landslide is reduced in some places of the study area due to plantation. The hazards like land slide and soil erosion have its impact on agricultural land there by reduction in agricultural production. Hailstorm is the major problem for orange farming in the study area. Variations in climate are the major cause for climatic hazard and construction of roads are the major reasons for soil erosion in the study area.

In this study the vulnerabilities of the climate change on livelihood had been focus. So to understand the level of understanding of the people about climate change (Figure 7.2 ) was very poor which introduce the vulnerability of the people, other finding related to the people's perception are given below.

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Figure 7.2: Knowledge about Climate Change

Source: Field Survey 2016 Figure 7.2 shows the level of understanding of respondent about the climate change 46 percent of total respondent reported that they have limited understanding about climate change similarly 31.3 percent says that they have not heard about climate change 11.3 percent respondents says that they understand and feel the effect of climate change. Likewise 11.3 percent reported that they have understood the effect and causes of climate change. Skills enable households to make use of available livelihood options and therefore which will help to reduce the vulnerability.

Figure 7.3: Training of Climate Change

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Majority of the respondent i.e. 85.3 percent of total respondent reported that they have not receive any training about climate change Figure 7.3 shows the number of household receiving the training or other information about climate change. It was found that 77.3 percent, 92.1 percent and 86.5 percent from Chiti, Jita and Taksar respectively reported that they have never taken any training about climate change. Similarly 83.6 percent, 89.9 percent and 75 percent of the respondent from High hills, Middle hills and Valley respectably reported that they have not received any training and obtained information of climate change. Likewise 10.7 percent, 7.9 percent and 8.1 percent have received training once from Chiti,Jita and Taksar. Only 5.4 percent from high hill 7.3 percent from middle hill and 17.5 percent from valley have receive the training once. Only 1 respondent from Taksar and valley ecology have been taking the training often.

Figure 7.4: Effect of Climate Change

Source: Field Survey 2016 Figure 7.4 shows the perception of the people at what level they are feeling the effect of climate change it was found that 41.3 percent, 26.3 percent and 35.2 Percent of the total respondent from Chiti, Jita and Taksar respectively reported that they were not sure about the effect of climate. Similarly 41.3 percent, 13.1 percent and 40.6 percent of respondent from Chiti, Jita and Taksar reported that they may be affected from climate change they

77 gives the example relating to the extreme hazards. Whereas the total percentage of respondent saying yes and gives the examples relating long term trend of climate change were found 9.3 percent in Chiti, 23.7 percent in Jita and 10.9 percent in Taksar. Likewise the respondent responding Yes by giving examples of long term trends of climate change and describe how that effect livelihood was found 8 percent,36.9 percent and 8.7 percent in Chiti, Jita and Taksar respectively. Which shows the level of understanding was high in Jita then other place.

Figure 7.5: Effect of Climate Change on Livestock and Crops

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 7.5 shows the effect of climate change on livestocks and crops it was found that 51.3 percent of total respondent observed the effect whereas 48.7 percent have observed no change in livestock's and crops. The changes in crops were seen in the growth and quality although quantity was increased by the use of chemical fertilizer beside that various types of diseases and pests are affecting the crops. In livestocks different kinds alien diseases are seen and the problem of reproduction decline is viewed as the results the livelihood of the local people is being affected. While crops are impacted by climate change it is likely that farm animals would be even more susceptible to change by the climate change, despite of limited knowledge and understanding of climate changes. Majority of respondent were able to know and feel the effects of climate change which is affecting their livelihoods.

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Figure 7.6: Reason for Change in Production

Source: Field Survey 2016

Figure 7.6 shows the perception of the respondent for change in production majority 59.3 percent reported that drought was the main reason for the change in production, similarly 21.3 percent 10.7 percent and 8.7 percent respondent said that the reason for change in production were use of improved seeds less rain and more land respectively.

Figure 7.7: Additional Sources of Income

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Figure 7.7 shows respondent adapting the additional source of income to ensure the livelihood 58.7 percent of total respondent reported that they are not looking other sources to ensure livelihood, whereas 76.7 percent of respondent reported that they ‟ ntional practices but only 23.3 percent have reported that they have change the conventional practices to cope with climate change.

7.4 Adaption Measures

There are two widely accepted mechanisms to cope with climate change they are mitigation and adaption. Climate change mitigation is the action to reduce anthropogenic emission of GHGs in order to reduce the magnitude and the rate of climate change. Mitigation includes increasing the carbon sinks through reforestation, switching to low carbon energy sources such as energy efficiency, renewable energy. Mitigation means using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment more energy effective, and changing consumer behavior, the program of REED+. As Nepal's GHGs emissions is not that much significant because the energy is mostly hydro based, there are still some opportunities to reduce GHGs from domestic, transportation and industrial sectors through energy efficiency and renewable energy, saving significant amount of operational cost as well. In Contrary climate change adaption is the action taken to manage the eventual impact of the climate warming and reduces the vulnerability of the biological system. It is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts and has a potential to reduce adverse impact of climate change. Adaption should focus on the needs of the people who are affected most and aim to reduce their most significant hazard. Compared to mitigation, adaptation is more complex, requires complex analysis of climatic data. Citizens are to be educated in the climate science as well as involved in infrastructure planning and design through implementation to adapt to the future climatic impact.

Communities were found using some strategies at local level to cope and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Most of the coping activities were found to be event specific based on local knowledge and innovations, because most of the respondents were not aware of actual impacts of climate changes. Some respondent reported that hardship of the livestock and agriculture framing they have reduce the number of livestock's and they have left the abandonment of land, some farmers have planted cardamom on their field in Chiti. The people of both sites have been managing forest as a community forest which

80 may increase the resilience of the community by fulfilling the demand of forest product. Now the people are planting trees in their Barden land EbA project is helping in the afforesting program by optimum utilization of marginal land by planting fodders trees, fruits and other trees and in the conservation of local biodiversity. The project has also managed the banana and bamboo plantation in the bank of Marsyandi this site was mainly developed to endanger ethnic group Chapang. The income from that site will be used by the Chapang community to ensure their livelihood.

People are using improved seeds and chemical fertilizer instead of local seeds and manure for more production however change in local seeds has resulted threat to the agro- biodiversity. The array of the potential adaptive response available to human societies is very large ranging from purely technological through behavioral and managerial and policy (IPCC,2007). For developing countries like Nepal, availability of the resources and building capacity are particularly important.

In Taksar the people are using the rain water harvesting to fulfill the demand of water in other place in study area they are brining water from the neighboring VDCs. Recently in Taksar in high hill the lifting of water have been started but the people have told that it the lifting will be run by solar it will be more effective than now from electricity. In the valley people have developed greenhouse site for cultivating vegetable. The people were not aware about the organization working in the field of climate change. More over communities have formed many groups such as Mothers Group, Youth Club, Drinking Water Group and so on. Those local groups can be the potential institutions to the community as well as the local level adaption measures. In the future owing to the presence of many institution influence each and every aspects of the community

Adaptation refers to the initiatives and measures to reduce vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects (IPCC, 2007). Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human system in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderated harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Communities based adaptation emphasized the needs for communities to understand the climate change means the traditional responses to climate variation (Practical Action, 2009). Mitigation aims is to reduce the emission of GHGs and achieve the particular temperature target. Paris Conference 2015 lay Adaptation aims to reduce vulnerability and improve adaptive capacity or resilience of the people who rely on climate dependent resources for the livelihood (FAO, 2009).

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CHAPTER VIII

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary

Climate change is burning issue of the contempory world. Almost all the people of the world are being effecting from this global phenomena. Due to low capacity to cope with and to adapt least developed countries like Nepal are more prone to be affected because they are highly dependent on agriculture and agrarian activities which are also known as climate sensitive sectors. Livelihoods of the people residing in the developing countries are more affected from the effect of the climate change.

It is very difficult to find the effect of climate change on livelihood. Many research in Nepal are concentrating to find out its effect in various sectors of livelihood in national level so this study have tried to assess minutely effect of climate change on livelihood in local level. This study was conducted in Chiti, Jita, and Taksar VDC of Lamjung district. The objectives of the study are to understand local people perception and experiences of the climate change and its impact on their livelihood and to analyze the adaptive measures being taken by local people to maintain their livelihood beside that to examine the pattern and trend of climate change in Lamjung. For this purpose primary data and secondary data were used.

The trend analysis of climatic data from seven different stations was done using regression. The annual precipitation trend was negative except that of Kunchha. The winter seasonal precipitation was in negative trend in all the stations. The highest decreased of precipitation was in Khudi it was found decreased by 21 mm among that 15 mm was decreased in monsoon season. Similarly the maximum air temperature was in positive trend except that of Bandipur and Minimum air temperature trend was found negative in Damauli and Khudi. The temperatures in those stations were not increased C and decreased by less than 1 C. We can prove that the temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing.

The people perception was also considered for the analysis found where 89.3 percent of total respondent reported that the temperature is increasing and 81.3 percent reported that the rainfall is decreasing. They told that in recent year's rainfall pattern have been

82 fluctuded, altered delay on monsoon, erratic and abnormal duration of rainfall etc. Winter rain has been decreased and many activities of this season have been uncertain. Increasing temperature due to climate change is serious concern for ecosystem. Temperature rise might cause phonological shifts in plants and can change flowering leafing, fruiting of the plant. Likewise the endemic species with lower capacity to adapt to change in the environment will be lost and affect wild life. Furthermore spread of alien species is the other threat of climate change. Increase in temperature might also cause upslope movements of plants and spread, woodley vegetation with loss in range lands and grasslands. Melting of glaciers as a result of climate change might increase the risk of landslide and floods. However in the long term the flows of snow fed rivers might decrease with decreasing ice. This shows climate can accelerate the problem of water scarcity which is already a serious problem for the country like Nepal the water table cannot be recharged due the less rainfall. Thus water scarcity and rise of temperature can further trigger the problem of food scarcity and hamper the livelihood of the people the framework of sustainable livelihood will be affected. The vulnerability context is the ‟ fulfill their basic needs, their income will be decreased as a result their social respects will be fall.

Climate change is increasing problem in rural life. They are using local adaptation and mitigation mechanisms. They have sufficient knowledge and experiences to diversify their occupation. They are changing their occupation slowly from agriculture and livestock farming to the business, wage labor or foreign labor. The trend of migration from the remote areas to assessable area i.e. from hill to valley was very common in the study area. People are compelled to change their traditional occupation because of low productivity young people are disappearing to foreign countries for the employment. When they earn money they do not return to village. Migration of youths is creating the vacuum and scarcity of human resources in village high hill of Jita and Taksar have the problem of depopulation.

Conclusions

Lamjung district is the most vulnerable district in term of climate change. Agriculture is the major livelihood source among the respondent which can be easily affected by climate change. It covers 1.5 percent of country territory and it is the gateway for Annapurna

83 region with many opportunities in tourism. The population of the district has been decreased by 0.9 % from 2001 to 2011(CBS, 2011). But the households have been increased. Information has been collected through field survey of 150 households from Chiti, Jita and Tangrang Taksar VDC. Analysis and interpretation of the collected information of the part of livelihood is based on the sustainable livelihood framework. Livelihood is means of gaining a living. It is directly related to the availability of the resources, services and institutions. In the study, household's livelihood assets have been analysis under five categories Viz human, social, natural, financial and physical assets.

Access to resources and services created better livelihood options. In this respect majority of the household in the study area were lagging far behind. There were not good networks of roads, health services, schools, agro-vet service center, banking and other basic facilities. Although Jita and Taksar were municipality and Chiti is the neighboring VDC of district headquarter. The people are trying their best to make the livelihood sustainable with the utilization of limited assets and traditional knowledge. Despite of modern tools and technology the local people are managing the livelihood. They are looking for the presence of the government which enables them for improving their assets and capabilities to cope with vulnerabilities.

Variations in temperature and precipitation patterns have impacts on various aspects of P ‟ records. Study found that Farmers in the different regions were able to recognize that temperatures have increased, and there has been a fluctuation in the rainfall pattern. Inadequate scientific monitoring makes it difficult to validate the observed changes. Natural resource degradation and poverty are already severe problems in Nepal, and there will be more severe problems in future if present scenario continues particularly, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change.

Reviving traditional practices and improving knowledge on how to harvest rainwater, forest management, crop and livelihood diversification, provides one way of coping with different climatic variability. Appropriate technologies, suitable for the local context, are also helpful. Before planning any interventions, a proper assessment of the impact of climate change on livelihood is essential. Adaptation measures such as crop diversification, crop and livestock insurance and risk transfer mechanisms should be developed to minimize the risk of climate change. The intivates have been stared to cope

84 the problem of climate change in the study area such as the EbA project have done banana and bombay plantation for the Chapang community for their livelihood Similarly, the establishment of Nursery with the collaborating with the district forest and soil conservation office and EbA have emphasized to do reforestation in the forest and afforestation in the abandonment land beside that the plants of fruits are being distributed time to time. In Taksar there is the rain water harvesting and water lifting system. Finally, empowering communities with information, technological skills, education and employment is the best way to address vulnerability. The local observations described above provide a clear direction for future research and for development planning and adaptation management programs. Policy and program should be formulated in holistic approach to mitigate climate change and improve livelihood of the local communities.

RECOMMENDATIONS

On the basis of finding and conclusion following recommendation are forwarded.

 A location wise action-research is necessary to identify and document climate change impacts and adaptation strategy.

 Looking the level of the people and community from local level interventions programs to improve the status and quality of household assets which could increase the capacity of the local people and they can make the livelihood sustainable.

 Livelihood enhancement program should be designed and implemented with the sustainable livelihood framework focusing on reformation policies institution and process increasing accessibility, availability and quality of basic services and facilities. Increasing access to livelihood assets, reducing vulnerability context and increasing livelihood opportunities which will minimized the impact of climate change

 Documentation of local traditional knowledge of climate variability and coping up strategies can be useful in formulating strategies to adapt to the climate change.

 To adapt with the changing climate and frequently reducing crops yields drought resistance and less water requiring plants are needed to be suggested by the concerned authorities.

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