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The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments in the European Union

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The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments in the European Union Instituto Juan March Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales (CEACS) Juan March Institute Center for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences (CEACS) The Political economy of fiscal adjustments in the European Union Author(s): Mulas-Granados, Carlos Year: 2003 Type Thesis (doctoral) University: Instituto Juan March de Estudios e Investigaciones, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 2003. City: Madrid Number of pages: xii, 396 p. Abstract: Desde un enfoque de economía política esta tesis da respuesta a las tres siguientes preguntas: 1) ¿Qué factores económicos y políticos explican que los ajustes fiscales ocurran en un determinado momento; 2) ¿Qué factores explican las diferencias observadas en diferentes países europeos relativas a la duración y la composición de sus estrategias de consolidación presupuestaria?; 3) ¿Qué consecuencias económicas y políticas tiene la aplicación de unas u otras estrategias de ajuste fiscal? La metodología aplicada para la resolución de estas cuestiones combina en un modelo teórico de economía política presupuestaria las interacciones entre variables económicas (deuda, ciclo, condiciones monetarias, nivel de precios y empleo) y variables políticas (fragmentación de los gobiernos, ideología económica y cercanía de las elecciones). Las hipótesis del modelo son comprobadas empíricamente con técnicas cuantitativas y cualitativas con datos de panel y estudios de caso, para la muestra de quince países miembros de la Unión Europea entre 1960–2000. Las principales conclusiones de la tesis son las siguientes: la acumulación de deuda pública y el ciclo económico afectan a la probabilidad de lanzar un ajuste fiscal, mientras que la fragmentación del gobierno y el calendario electoral son variables que afectan de manera más importante a la duración de esos ajustes. Finalmente, la composición de los mismos se ve fuertemente influenciada por la ideología del partido en el gobierno respecto del papel que el sector público debe jugar en la economía. Por otro lado, los ajustes basados en una reducción de gastos o en un aumento de ingresos no tienen los mismos efectos económicos y políticos. Los ajustes basados en recortes de gastos, como transferencias y salarios públicos, suelen tener costes electorales para los gobiernos que los promueven, aumentan la desigualdad, pero tienen efectos no- keynesianos y positivos sobre el crecimiento económico. Por el contrario, los ajustes basados en aumentos de los ingresos son menos costosos electoralmente, no aumentan tanto la desigualdad, pero producen peores resultados relativos en términos de crecimiento económico a medio plazo. Your use of the CEACS Repository indicates your acceptance of individual author and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any document(s) only for academic research and teaching purposes. Instituto Juan March de Estudios e Investigaciones CARLOS MULAS GRANADOS THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MADRID 2 0 0 3 Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales Esta obra se presentó como tesis doctoral en el Departamento de Economía Aplicada III-Política Económica de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, el 31 de enero de 2003. El Tribunal, compuesto por los profesores doctores D. José María Maravall (Presidente), D. Ángel Luis López-Roa, D. Jesús Ruíz-Huerta, D. Wolfgang Merkel y D. Francisco Villota, le otorgó la calificación de Sobresaliente “cum laude”. Carlos Mulas Granados es licenciado en Administración y dirección de empresas y licenciado en economía, ambas titulaciones por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid y Doctor en Economía por la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Formó parte de la undécima promoción de estudiantes del Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales del Instituto Juan March, donde obtuvo el título de Master en 2000. Tambien es Master en International Economic Policy por la Universidad de Columbia en Nueva York y Dual Degree SIPA/Sciences-PO por el Institut de Sciences Politiques de Paris. En el propio Centro elaboró su tesis doctoral bajo la dirección del profesor Carles Boix. Actualmente trabaja como Profesor en el Departamento de Economía de la Universidad Europea de Madrid y es investigador del Grupo de Economía Europea de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. También imparte sesiones en los programas del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales y de la George Washington University (Madrid Center- UAM). CONTENTS List of Tables .............................................................................................v List of Figures...........................................................................................ix Abbreviations.............................................................................................x Acknowledgements...................................................................................xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................1 1.1. Strategies of Fiscal Adjustment.........................................................6 1.2. Economic and Political Factors Influencing the Adoption of Different Adjustment Strategies........................................................7 1.2.1. Economic Factors...................................................................8 1.2.2. Political Factors....................................................................10 1.3. Economic and Political Consequences of Adopting Different Adjustment Strategies .....................................................................14 1.3.1. Demand-Side Effects on Growth .........................................14 1.3.2. Supply-Side Effects on Growth............................................15 1.3.3. Income Distribution..............................................................16 1.3.4. Electoral Costs .....................................................................16 1.4. A Summary of the Dissertation’s Argument...................................17 1.5. The Structure of the Study...............................................................20 CHAPTER 2. ECONOMICS, POLITICS AND FISCAL POLICY........25 2.1. Governments and Economic Policy ................................................26 2.1.1. Aggregate Supply and Demand: Monetary and Fiscal Policies.................................................................................26 2.1.2. Interventionists and Non-Interventionists .............................32 2.2. Fiscal Policies in the European Union, 1970-2000 .........................36 2.3. The Economics of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Adjustments .............44 2.3.1. Economic Cycle and Unemployment Rate...........................44 2.3.2. Prices and Monetary Conditions ..........................................45 2.3.3. Debt Accumulation ..............................................................46 2.4. The Politics of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Adjustments...................50 2.4.1. Fragmentation of Decision-Making .....................................53 2.4.2. Proximity of Elections..........................................................55 2.4.3. Ideology of the Party in Government ...................................57 2.5. Conclusion ......................................................................................64 i CHAPTER 3. TIMING AND DURATION OF FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS.....................................................................................67 3.1. What is a Fiscal Adjustment?..........................................................69 3.2. Strategies of Fiscal Adjustment: Timing, Duration and Composition....................................................................................70 3.3. The Timing of Fiscal Adjustments: When do they occur?..............73 3.4. The Duration of Fiscal Adjustments in the European Union ..........79 3.4.1. Non-Parametric Estimation ..................................................86 3.4.2. Parametric Estimation. The Determinants of Duration ........90 3.5. Economic and Political Factors During Stronger Consolidations...............................................................................100 3.6. Conclusion ....................................................................................107 CHAPTER 4. THE COMPOSITION OF FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS...................................................................................109 4.1. Why is Composition of the Budget Important?.............................110 4.2. Economics, Politics, and Composition of the Budget ...................115 4.3. Composition of the Budget During Fiscal Adjustments................125 4.4. Conclusion ....................................................................................137 CHAPTER 5. FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NINETIES: CASE STUDIES................................................................139 5.1. The Maastricht Treaty and the Decision of Monetary Union........142 5.1.1. The Maastricht Treaty ........................................................142 5.1.2. Why Monetary Union? Why Was It Embraced By All Governments? ....................................................................146 5.2. Case Studies: Complying with the Maastricht Criteria and the Influence of Political Variables.....................................................158 5.2.1. The Ideology of the Party in Government: Portugal vs. Spain...................................................................................162 5.2.1.1. Portugal: Left-Wing Government and Revenue-Based Fiscal
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