Two Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered
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Total and Short-Term Unemployment and the Recent Behavior of Prices and Wages
Total and Short-term Unemployment and the Recent Behavior of Prices and Wages Background Background (cont.) • FRBNY staff analysis: considerable slack remains • Motivation to explore these issues: “missing in the economy deflation puzzle” • Labor market flows • “Standard” Phillips Curve models → very low inflation or deflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession • This assessment is an important factor in FRBNY • Compensation growth also should have been lower staff outlook • A restraining factor for price- and wage-inflation • One proposed explanation: Short-term/long-term unemployment distinction • However, recent research has focused on two • Long-term unemployed (unemployment duration > 27 issues: weeks): limited impact on price/wage inflation • Extent of slack in labor market • Short-term unemployment near historical average: less • Magnitude of restraining effect on inflation from slack than implied by conventional measures conventional measure(s) of labor market slack Unemployment Rates by Duration Illustration of “Standard” Approach: Gordon (2013) Percent Percent 12 12 • Price-inflation (PCE deflator) Phillips curve model: Correlation Between Short- • Lagged inflation terms term and Long-term 10 Unemployment 10 • Unemployment gap based on: 1976—2007 0.63 • Total unemployment rate 1976—2013 0.28 8 8 • Short-term unemployment rate Total Unemployment • Supply shocks: 6 6 • Food and energy inflation • Relative import price inflation 4 Short-term 4 • Trend productivity acceleration/deceleration variable Unemployment Long-term • Other features: 2 Unemployment 2 • 1960:Q1-2013:Q1 sample period 0 0 • Joint estimation of time-varying NAIRU 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Total and Short-term Unemployment and the Recent Behavior of Prices and Wages Evaluation of Short-term vs. -
Econometrics
BIBLIOGRAPHY ISSUE 28, OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2013 Econometrics http://library.bankofgreece.gr http://library.bankofgreece.gr Tables of contents Introduction...................................................................................................................2 I. Print collection of the Library...........................................................................................3 I.1 Monographs .................................................................................................................3 I.2 Periodicals.................................................................................................................. 33 II. Electronic collection of the Library ................................................................................ 35 II.1 Full text articles ..................................................................................................... 35 IΙI. Resources from the World Wide Web ......................................................................... 59 IV. List of topics published in previous issues of the Bibliography........................................ 61 Image cover: It has created through the website http://www.wordle.net All the issues are available at the internet: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/Bank/Library/news.aspx Bank of Greece / Centre for Culture, Research and Documentation / Library Unit / 21 El. Venizelos, 102 50 Athens / [email protected]/ Tel. 210 320 2446, 2522 / Bibliography: bimonthly electronic edition, Issue 28, September- October 2013 Contributors: -
New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Empirically Tested in the Case of Republic of Macedonia
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko Preprint New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Empirically tested in the case of Republic of Macedonia Suggested Citation: Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko (2012) : New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Empirically tested in the case of Republic of Macedonia, ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel und Hamburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/64403 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu NEW KEYNESIAN MACROECONOMICS: EMPIRICALLY TESTED IN THE CASE OF REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Dushko Josheski 1 Darko Lazarov2 Abstract In this paper we test New Keynesian propositions about inflation and unemployment trade off with the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the proposition of non-neutrality of money. -
Indian Statistical Institute
CHAPTER VII INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 7.1 The Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) came into being with the pioneering initiative and efforts of Professor P.C. Mahalanobis in early thirties (registered on 28 April, 1932). The Institute expanded its research, teaching, training and project activities and got national/international recognitions. The Institute was recognized as an “Institute of National Importance” by an Act of Parliament, known as “Indian Statistical Institute Act No.57 of 1959”. Significantly, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the then Prime Minister piloted the bill in the Parliament in 1959. This Act conferred the right to hold examinations and award degrees/diplomas in Statistics. Degree courses viz. Bachelor of Statistics (B.Stat.), Master of Statistics (M.Stat.) and post graduate diplomas in SQC & OR and Computer Science were started from June 1960. The Institute was also empowered to award Ph.D./D.Sc. degree from the same year. Subsequently, Master of Technology courses in Computer Science and in Quality, Reliability & Operations Research were also started. The Institute’s scope was further enlarged to award degrees/diplomas in Statistics, Mathematics, Quantitative Economics, Computer Science and such other subjects related to Statistics by virtue of “Indian Statistical Institute (Amendment) Act, 1995. The Institute took up research activities not only in Statistics/Mathematics but also in Natural and Social Sciences, Physics and Earth Sciences, Biological Sciences, Statistical Quality Control & Operations Research and Library and Information Sciences. 7.2 Sankhya – The Indian Journal of Statistics, being published by the Institute since 1933, is considered as one of the leading Statistical Journals of the world. -
Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Hengky Latan • Richard Noonan Editors
Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Hengky Latan • Richard Noonan Editors Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Basic Concepts, Methodological Issues and Applications 123 Editors Hengky Latan Richard Noonan Department of Accounting Institute of International Education STIE Bank BPD Jateng and Petra Stockholm University Christian University Stockholm, Sweden Semarang-Surabaya, Indonesia ISBN 978-3-319-64068-6 ISBN 978-3-319-64069-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-64069-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017955377 Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 62H20, 62H25, 62H12, 62F12, 62F03, 62F40, 65C05, 62H30 © Springer International Publishing AG 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
Physica a the Pre-History of Econophysics and the History of Economics: Boltzmann Versus the Marginalists
Physica A 507 (2018) 89–98 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Physica A journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/physa The pre-history of econophysics and the history of economics: Boltzmann versus the marginalists Geoffrey Poitras 1 Simon Fraser University, Vancouver B.C., Canada V5A lS6 h i g h l i g h t s • A comparative intellectual history of econophysics and economic science is provided to demonstrate why and how econophysics is distinct from economics. • The history and role of the ergodicity hypothesis of Ludwig Boltzmann is considered. • The use of phenomenological methods in econophysics is detailed. • The role of ergodicity in empirical estimates of models in economics is identified. article info a b s t r a c t Article history: This paper contrasts developments in the pre-history of econophysics with the history of Received 7 January 2018 economics. The influence of classical physics on contributions of 19th century marginalists Received in revised form 17 March 2018 is identified and connections to the subsequent development of neoclassical economics Available online 21 May 2018 discussed. The pre-history of econophysics is traced to a seminal contribution in the history of statistical mechanics: the classical ergodicity hypothesis introduced by L. Boltzmann. Keywords: The subsequent role of the ergodicity hypothesis in empirical testing of the deterministic Ergodicity Ludwig Boltzmann theories of neoclassical economics is identified. The stochastic models used in modern eco- Econophysics nomics are compared with the more stochastically complex models of statistical mechanics Neoclassical economics used in econophysics. The influence of phenomenology in econophysics is identified and Marginal revolution discussed. -
The Nairu Concept, Its Phillips Curve Origins and Its Evolution in Terms of the Economic Policy Debate
7+(1$,58&21&(37±0($685(0(17 81&(57$,17,(6+<67(5(6,6$1'(&2120,& 32/,&<52/( 30&$'$0$1'.0&02552: 7$%/(2)&217(176 ,QWURGXFWRU\5HPDUNV &KDSWHUUncertainties concerning model selection : A number of plausible modelling approaches exist for Measuring the NAIRU 1.1 Univariate Methods / Models 1.2 Variants of the Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve Approach &KDSWHUProduction of NAIRU estimates for the US, Japan and EU- 15 using a Conventional Bargaining model approach &KDSWHU Empirical Inadequacies : Uncertainties surrounding the NAIRU Point Estimates 3.1 Confidence Intervals 3.2 Results from US and Canadian NAIRU studies &KDSWHU Theoretical Weaknesses : The Notion of Hysteresis Complicates the Interpretation of Changes in the NAIRU &KDSWHU The Nairu Concept, its Phillips Curve Origins and its Evolution in terms of the Economic Policy Debate &RQFOXGLQJ5HPDUNV 2 7+(1$,58&21&(37±0($685(0(17 81&(57$,17,(6+<67(5(6,6$1' (&2120,&32/,&<52/( ,1752'8&725<5(0$5.6 In 1968 Friedman put forward the notion of a “natural” rate of unemployment to encapsulate the idea that a “normal” level of unemployment, roughly equivalent to the amount of frictional and structural unemployment, persists even when the labour market is in equilibrium. Since there are no direct measures of the natural rate, as it is essentially a theoretical construct, one must be satisfied with proxy estimates derived using various methods including that which draws on Tobin’s concept of the non- accelerating inflation rate of unemployment(i.e. the NAIRU). This latter concept has been used extensively since the 1970s to show that policy makers are not in a position to buy permanent reductions in unemployment by tolerating a higher rate of inflation. -
Statistics in the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences
154 STATISTICS IN THE INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES William Kruskal, University of Chicago A,number of interesting problems ESTIMATION have been faced in planning the sixty - I Point estimation odd statistical articles for the forth- (D. L. Burkholder) coming International Encyclopedia of the II Confidence intervals and regions Social Sciences. An encyclopedia has (J. Pfanzagl) many functions, and users approach it EVIDENCE, STATISTICS AS LEGAL in many ways. Should articles be pri- (Hans Zeisel) marily essays about parts of statistics, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN without attempt at full coverage? I The design of experiments Should articles be handbook -like terse (William G. Cochran) summaries? How should controversial II Response surfaces (George E. P. areas, and widely differing viewpoints Box) towards statistics be treated? What III Quasi- experimental design about level of exposition? Following (Donald T. Campbell) discussion of such issues, brief des- IV Social experiments (Fred L. criptions were given of the intensive Strodtbeck) work on accuracy, clarity of exposition, EXPLANATION (Sidney Morgenbesser) etc., and of the structure of the sta- FACTOR ANALYSIS tistical topics to be treated. I Statistical aspects (A. E. Maxwell) PRELIMINARY LIST OF STATISTICS AND II Psychological applications STATISTICS - RELATED ARTICLES IN THE (Lloyd G. Humphreys) INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF THE FALLACIES, STATISTICAL (Irving John Good) SOCIAL SCIENCES FIDUCIAL INFERENCE (R. A. Fisher) GEOGRAPHY: Statistical Geography Topical Articles (Brian J. L. Berry) GOODNESS OF FIT (Herbert T. David) BAYESIAN INFERENCE (Harry V. Roberts) GOVERNMENT STATISTICS (Nathan Keyfitz) CAUSATION (Herbert A. Simon) GRAPHICS (Calvin F. Schmid) CENSUS (Conrad Taeuber) HYPOTHESIS TESTING (E. L. Lehmann) CLUSTERING (David Wallace) IDENTIFIABILITY, STATISTICAL COHORT ANALYSIS (Norman B. -
The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve
4 The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve A New Method for Estimating Time Variation in the NAIRU William T. Dickens The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is fre- quently employed in fiscal and monetary policy deliberations. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office uses estimates of the NAIRU to compute potential GDP, that in turn is used to make budget projections that affect decisions about federal spending and taxation. Central banks consider estimates of the NAIRU to determine the likely course of inflation and what actions they should take to preserve price stability. A problem with the use of the NAIRU in policy formation is that it is thought to change over time (Ball and Mankiw 2002; Cohen, Dickens, and Posen 2001; Stock 2001; Gordon 1997, 1998). But estimates of the NAIRU and its time variation are remarkably imprecise and are far from robust (Staiger, Stock, and Watson 1997, 2001; Stock 2001). NAIRU estimates are obtained from estimates of the Phillips curve— the relationship between the inflation rate, on the one hand, and the unemployment rate, measures of inflationary expectations, and variables representing supply shocks on the other. Typically, inflationary expecta- tions are proxied with several lags of inflation and the unemployment rate is entered with lags as well. The NAIRU is recovered as the constant in the regression divided by the coefficient on unemployment (or the sum of the coefficient on unemployment and its lags). The notion that the NAIRU might vary over time goes back at least to Perry (1970), who suggested that changes in the demographic com- position of the labor force would change the NAIRU. -
Ekonomporträttet: Herman Wold (1908–1992)
RAGNAR BENTZEL Ekonomporträttet: Herman Wold (1908–1992) Herman Wold måste sägas vara en av Sveriges mest inflytelserika ekonomer i modern tid. Han gjorde banbrytande insatser inom en rad centrala områden, främst vad gäller statistik, ekonometri och konsumtionsteori, och många av hans skrifter är fortfarande standard- referenser i den internationella litteraturen. Herman Wold fick aldrig det Nobelpris och efter studentexamen påbörjade han som han så hett eftertraktade. Själv var sina universitetsstudier i Stockholm. Där han övertygad om att han förr eller senare ägnade han sig åt matematik och matema- skulle få ett sådant pris och det var en tisk statistik under ledning av Harald svår besvikelse för honom att han aldrig Cramér. Han disputerade för doktorsgra- förunnades denna utmärkelse. Besvikel- den 1938, vilket renderade honom en do- sen blev inte mindre när hans vetenskap- centur vid Stockholms Högskola. lige ”motståndare” Tryggve Haavelmo Wold gjorde en snabb karriär och ut- prisbelönades år 1989. nämndes till professor i statistik vid Det är många som anser att Wold av Uppsala Universitet år 1942. Den tjänsten Vetenskapsakademien behandlades lite behöll han fram till 1970, då han flyttade snålt och att han borde blivit prisbelönad, till Göteborgs Universitet.1 Där stannade eventuellt tillsammans med Haavelmo han till sin pensionering fem år senare. och/eller någon annan. Kanske är den kri- Som pensionär återvände han till Uppsala tiken berättigad, kanske inte. Klart är Universitet. Han avled 1992. dock, att Wolds vetenskapliga meriter var av en sådan dignitet, att ett pris till honom Avhandlingen vore fullt tänkbart, men konkurrensen var hård. Doktorsavhandlingen från 1938, A Study Icke desto mindre kunde han se till- in the Analysis of Stationary Time Series, baka på en lysande akademisk karriär. -
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy
Journal of EconomicPerspectives-Volume 11, Number1-Winter 1997-Pages 33-49 The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson S ince Milton Friedman's(1968) presidentialaddress to the AmericanEco- nomic Association, one of the most enduring ideas in macroeconomics has LJ been that inflation will increase when unemployment persists below its nat- ural rate, the so-called NAIRU, or nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. But what is the NAIRU? Is it 5.8 percent as estimated by the CBO (1996)? Is it 5.7 percent as used by the Council of Economic Advisors (1996) or 5.6 percent as estimated by Gordon (this issue)? Or can unemployment safely go much lower, as recently argued by Eisner (1995a,b)? For all of 1995 and the first two quarters of 1996, unemployment hovered around 5.6 percent, while inflation remained in check. This has led to a debate among academics and policymakers over whether there has been a decline in the NAIRU and, more generally, whether economists should continue to rely on unemployment and the NAIRU as indicators of an over- heated economy (Weiner, 1993, 1994; Tootell, 1994; Fuhrer, 1995; Council of Eco- nomic Advisors, 1996, pp. 51-57; Congressional Budget Office, 1996, pp. 5, 27). At the heart of this debate lie several empirical questions. Has the NAIRU declined in recent years? What is the current value of the NAIRU? How confident should economists be in these estimates? How useful is knowledge of NAIRU in *Douglas Staigeris AssistantProfessor of PoliticalEconomy, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,Cambridge, Massachusetts.