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Digital, Media & Internet Monitor Digital, Media & Internet Monitor Q4 2018 Thomas Egli | Managing Director Tobias Schultheiss | Managing Director Sam Fuller | Managing Director Tel: +41 43 499 43 41 Tel: +49 69 20 434 64 16 Tel: +44 20 7484 40 40 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Alexander Grünwald | Managing Director Christopher Jones | Managing Director Simon Lord | Managing Director Communication regarding this Tel: +41 43 499 43 43 Tel: +44 207 484 40 40 Tel: +44 845 505 43 43 newsletter should be directed to [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] GCA’S RECENT DIGITAL, MEDIA, INTERNET & TECHNOLOGY TRANSACTIONS RELEVANT TRANSACTIONS CLOSED IN LAST 3 QUARTERS 2 GCA’S GLOBAL TRACK RECORD IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR EUROPE NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA ASIA 3 SUMMARY – DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR (1/2) SECTOR PERFORMANCE & VALUATION M&A AND IPO ACTIVITY o Share price performance was negative across all subsectors, o The number of deals in Q4 2018 increased slightly to 266 particularly for Inventory-based (-21.7%), Content Monetization compared to 252 in the previous year’s fourth quarter. (-21.3%) and Payment (-19.5%), the sectors posting the lowest returns in Q4 2018. Marketplaces (-5.5%), Gaming (-4.3%), o The total sector deal value (disclosed) at EUR 6.0bn was higher Classifieds (-3.0%) and Customer Acquisition (-5.6%) had the than the previous year’s fourth quarter of EUR 4.6bn, in line with lowest declines. In line with a continuing slow down in the the increase in deal volume this quarter. IBM completed this global equity market’s performance, technology and software quarter’s largest transaction by acquiring Red Hat for EUR stocks are posting weaker returns due to US-China trade 31.4bn1) (10.7x Sales and 56.4x EBITDA), while the acquisition of tensions, increasing privacy concerns affecting social media Tribune Media for EUR 6.3bn1) (3.2x Sales and 8.6x EBITDA) by networks, as well as rising interest rates and market volatility. Nexstar was the second largest. Other transactions include Travelport’s acquisition by Elliott for EUR 3.8bn (1.6x Sales and o EV/EBITDA valuations (2018) decreased in every subsector 10.0x EBITDA), the acquisition of Windstream’s consumer with Content Monetization (-29.0%), Social Network & internet business by Trive Capital for EUR 288m, Building Communities (-19.0%) and Payment (-18.1%) showing the Connected’s acquisition by Autodesk for EUR 241m and largest losses, while Inventory-based (-8.8%), Travel (-9.3%), earthport’s acquisition by VISA for EUR 215m (5.1x Sales). Classifieds (-9.3%) and Customer Acquisition (-7.9%) had the lowest declines in EV/EBITDA valuations. Decreased valuations o 7 IPOs were completed in Q4 2018 with overall proceeds of EUR can mostly be attributed to weakened market performance. 1.0bn, a higher value and similar volume compared to Q4 2017, during which there were 7 IPOs in the Digital, Media & Internet o EV/Sales valuations (2018) showed a significant decline sector with a value of EUR 0.8bn. Funding Circle dominates the throughout all subsectors. Inventory-based (-20.1%), Content quarter’s gross proceeds with a value of EUR 494m. Monetization (-25.8%) and E-commerce & Marketing solutions (-20.7%) declined the most, whereas Marketplaces (-6.8%), o Overall, multiples have decreased across all subsectors mostly Travel (-8.9%), Classifieds (-9.5%) and Customer Acquisition due to continued weak market performance, although M&A and (-6.3%) posted the lowest declines of sales valuation levels. IPO activity and volume experienced an uptick this quarter. Note: Multiples based on latest available financial statements; 1) These transactions are not included in total sector deal value and volume due to focus on digital media and internet sectors Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2019); Mergermarket 4 SUMMARY – DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR (2/2) ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED BUSINESS OF CONSUMER INTERNET (EARTHLINK) OPEN SOURCE OPERATING WEBSITES, TELEVISION AND B2B ONLINE TRAVEL SERVICE INTERNET ACCESS, E-MAIL CONSTRUCTION B2B SMART INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM SOFTWARE RADIO STATIONS CONNECTION PLATFORM AND WEB HOSTING COMMUNICATION PLATFORM PAYMENTS NETWORK Transaction Value: EUR 31.4bn Transaction Value: EUR 6.3bn Transaction Value: EUR 3.8bn Transaction Value: EUR 288m Transaction Value: EUR 241m Transaction Value: EUR 215m Seller: Public Seller: Public Seller: Public Seller: Windstream Seller: Bee Partners, CrossLink, Seller: i.a. Oppenheimer (37%), EV/Sales: 10.7x EV/Sales: 3.2x EV/Sales: 1.6x EV/Sales: n/a Brick & Mortar Ventures, Wellington (19%), Schroder EV/EBITDA: 56.4x EV/EBITDA: 8.6x EV/EBITDA: 10.0x EV/EBITDA: n/a freestyle.vc and Homebr2w Investment Management (17%) Announced: 28/10/18 Announced: 03/12/18 Announced: 10/12/18 Announced: 31/12/18 EV/Sales: n/a and public investors EV/EBITDA: n/a EV/Sales: 5.1x Announced: 20/12/18 EV/EBITDA: n/m1) Announced: 27/12/18 Note: Multiples based on latest available financial statements; 1) Negative EV/EBITDA multiples considered as n/m Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2019), Mergermarket 5 RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ONLINE SUBSECTOR VALUATIONS MEDIAN TOTAL RETURN1) MEDIAN SALES MEDIAN EV/SALES -20MEDIAN0 EBITDA20 MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (LAST 3 MONTHS) 2018 ESTIMATE 2018 VALUATION 2018 ESTIMATE 2018 VALUATION 1 Champions (8.9%) (0.5%) (12.6%) (0.9%) (11.4%) 2 Inventory-based (21.7%) (0.4%) (20.1%) (4.2%) (8.8%) Marketplaces (5.5%) 0.0% (6.8%) 0.0% (10.1%) Travel (13.0%) (1.0%) (8.9%) (1.0%) (9.3%) 3 Diversifieds & Portals (12.4%) 0.1% (12.8%) (1.0%) (10.6%) Content Monetization (21.3%) 0.1% (25.8%) (6.0%) (29.0%) Social Netw. & Cmtys (9.4%) (0.9%) (16.7%) (5.1%) (19.0%) Gaming (4.3%) (0.6%) (17.0%) (2.4%) (17.1%) Gambling (16.4%) (0.5%) (14.1%) (0.1%) (14.4%) 4 Classifieds (3.0%) (0.1%) (9.5%) (1.0%) (9.3%) Customer Acquisition (5.6%) 0.1% (6.3%) 0.0% (7.9%) Oth. Online Marketing (10.8%) 0.0% (12.5%) 1.2% (16.1%) E-comm. & Mktg. Solutions (17.2%) (1.0%) (20.7%) (11.9%) (15.9%) 5 Consumer/B2C Services (14.5%) 0.5% (13.5%) (0.4%) (10.0%) Payment (19.5%) 1.5% (16.5%) 1.4% (18.1%) Note: Multiples with values over 50x deemed not meaningful and excluded from analysis; 1) Median total return based on share prices adjusted for cash dividends, stock splits, rights offerings and spin-offs Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2018) 6 M&A AND IPO OVERVIEW IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR1) (1/3) TRANSACTIONS Number of 500 transactions Internet Software and Services 328 333 311 Internet Retail 266 66 66 243 252 252 250 72 214 208 47 65 48 67 38 59 262 267 239 196 204 199 187 176 149 0 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 183) 15 13.7 Size of 10.5 11.5 Internet Software and Services 9.2 transactions 10 7.6 6.0 6.6 6.0 Internet Retail (in EURbn)2) 4.6 5 0 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 183) 15 13.7 10.5 11.5 Over 1000m 9.2 10 7.6 500 - 1000m 6.0 6.6 6.0 4.6 5 250 - 500m Under 250m 0 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 183) Note: 1) Target located in Europe or North America; 2) Includes only transactions for which financial details are publicly available; 3) Not including Red Hat and Tribune Media acquisitions Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2019) 7 M&A AND IPO OVERVIEW IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR1) (2/3) TRANSACTIONS WITH EUROPEAN TARGETS IN Q4 2018 2) Origins of RoE United Kingdom Origins of North America targets 14% 18% buyers 12% Poland RoW3) 6% 9% Switzerland 6% Germany Sweden 17% 7% Spain 7% Europe Netherlands France 79% 9% 16% TRANSACTIONS WITH NORTH AMERICAN TARGETS IN Q4 2018 Origins of Canada Origins of Europe targets 10% buyers 9% RoW3) 5% United States North America 90% 86% Note: 1) Target located in Europe or North America; 2) RoE = Rest of Europe; 3) RoW = Rest of the World Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2019) 8 M&A AND IPO OVERVIEW IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR1) (3/3) IPOs Number of 15 IPOs Internet Software and Services 11 Internet Retail 10 9 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 0 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Value of IPO 4 3.52) Internet Software and Services proceeds Internet Retail (in EURbn) 3 2 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Note: 1) Company located in Europe or North America; 2) Includes Snap’s IPO of EUR 3.2bn Source: Capital IQ (06-Jan-2019) 9 DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET: HOW WE DEFINE THE UNIVERSE 1 Champions 2 E-commerce & Travel Champions Inventory based Marketplaces Travel # of companies 11 # of companies 24 # of companies 11 # of companies 12 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 3'844.8 (EURbn) 76.3 (EURbn) 80.8 (EURbn) 44.1 3 Content & Communities Social Network Diversified & Portals Content Monetization Gaming Gambling & Communities # of companies 18 # of companies 7 # of companies 13 # of companies 15 # of companies 13 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 678.7 (EURbn) 20.1 (EURbn) 53.3 (EURbn) 101.7 (EURbn) 38.6 4 Marketing & Classifieds Customer E-commerce & Classifieds Other Online Marketing Acquisition Mrkt.
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