E0048

From: ------Date: Jun 30, 2013 12:01 To: ------, Subj: SIA Report Submission to DURF

Kowloon City DURF and DURF Secretariat

Attn.: Lily Y.M.YAM,

Dear Kowloon City DURF members and DURF secretariat,

As you may know, we are a group of postgraduate students from the Hong Kong Polytechnic

University. We have completed a SIA report for 13 Streets, one of the priority redevelopment area in the DURF planning.

Please kindly find our report as the enclosed for DURF's reference. Shall you have any inquiry, please contact Sango Shek by email ------

Best regards,

Sango Shek, Chau-san

Master of Social Policy and Social Development,

Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Social Impact Assessment Report for Redevelopment of 13 Streets

28 May 2013

Submitted to Kowloon City District Urban Renewal Forum

SIA Report for Redevelopment of 13 Streets

Social Impact Assessment Report for Redevelopment of 13 Streets

Submitted by Postgraduate students of Master of Social Policy and Social Development, Department of Applied Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Zhang Li (Kathleen), Shek Chau San (Sango), Hung Ming Chung (Morris), Wong Man Hsuen (Yolanda), Siu Ka Yi (Kathy), Wong Shiu Hung (Brian), Lee Suk Ling (Tammy), Huang Ying Si (Rain), Leung Chi Hang (Clement), He Qinqin (Piana), Hu Kailing (Kelly), Wai Wai LWIN

Academic Instructors: Dr. David Ip, Fu Keung, Mr. Felix Ng, Sai Kit

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents ...... 3 Index of Tables ...... 6 Index of Figures ...... 6 Index of Photos ...... 7 Executive Summary ...... 9 Background ...... 9 Aim of the Study ...... 9 Methodology ...... 10 Key impacts identified ...... 11 Statement of predicted future in different scenarios ...... 12 Mitigation measures for redevelopment ...... 12 Recommendations ...... 13 1. Overview ...... 16 1.1 Location and Physical Setting ...... 16 1.2 Issues on redevelopment ...... 19 2. Methodology ...... 21 2.1 Overview of methodology ...... 21 2.2 Research Design...... 21 2.2.1 Compiling Baseline Condition ...... 21 2.2.2 Preliminary Impacts Identification ...... 21 2.2.3 Public Engagement ...... 22 2.3 Data analyses ...... 23 2.4 Limitations ...... 24 3. Baseline Condition – Community Profile ...... 25 3.1 History...... 25 3.2 Land use ...... 25 3.3 Demographic characteristics ...... 26 3.2.1 Age distributions ...... 27 3.2.2 Ethnicity ...... 28 3.4 Economic status ...... 28 3.4 Lifestyle ...... 30 3.5 Housing ...... 31 3.6 Local Economy ...... 37 3.7 Community services...... 40 3.8 Community Amenities ...... 42 3.9 Transportation ...... 43

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3.10 Public Order ...... 44 3.11 Prospects of the community ...... 45 4. Impact Identifications and Analyses ...... 47 4.1 Issues Raised in Consultation and Public Engagement ...... 47 4.2 Impacts Raised in Consultation and Public Engagement ...... 49 4.2.1 Negative Impacts from Expert Consultation...... 49 4.2.2 Negative Impacts from Public Engagement ...... 50 4.3 Predictions for Future Development without Redevelopment...... 50 4.4 Impacts Analysis ...... 51 4.4.1 Problems on Relocation and local rehousing ...... 53 4.4.2 Unaffordable living standards (C5) ...... 53 4.4.3 Change of economic base ...... 54 4.4.4 Dramatic Social Changes and Conflicts ...... 54 4.4.5 Dissolution of local culture and community (C4)...... 55 4.4.6 Pollutions during Construction Period (I6) ...... 55 4.4.7 Ethnic Minority Communities being left out and their needs being ignored (H4) ...... 55 4.5 Interactive Impacts Matrix and Relevant Impacts Analysis ...... 55 4.7.1 Triggering Stress and Anxiety among Affected People (X1) ...... 56 4.7.2 Increasing demand of land to restore the original community (X2) ... 56 4.7.3 Changes of Local Economy and Employment Structure (X3) ...... 56 4.7.4 A New community composition will emerge (X4) ...... 57 4.6 Case Study for Affected Groups ...... 57 4.6.1 Case 1: Ethnic Minorities, an Indian...... 57 4.6.2 Case 2: Owners of Garage in Lun Cheong Street No.22 ...... 57 4.6.3 Case 3: Tenants of Subdivided unit in Ying Yeung Street No.24 ...... 58 4.6.4 Case 4: Property Owners in Lun Cheong Street No.23 ...... 59 4.6.5 Case 5: Older People in 13 Streets ...... 59 4.6.6 Case 6: Property Owners in Fung Yi Street ...... 59 5. Scenario Generations ...... 61 5.1 Scenario 1- 13 Streets without any plan for redevelopment ...... 61 5.2 Scenario 2- 13 Streets with redevelopment by URA-initiated mode ...... 62 5.3 Summary ...... 62 6. Evaluation of Well-beings ...... 64 7. Mitigation ...... 69 Individual impacts ...... 69 Household impacts ...... 69 Community impact...... 70

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8. Recommendation ...... 71 References ...... 73 Acknowledgement Appendix 1 Questionnaire for the final round Delphi survey ...... 75 Appendix 2.1 Questionnaire for community survey (in English) ...... 86 Appendix 2.2 Questionnaire for community survey (in Chinese) ...... 89 Appendix 3 Cross Impacts Table ...... 91 Appendix 3 Cross Impacts Table (Con’t)...... 92 Appendix 4 Relevant Impact Tree for redevelopment of 13 Streets ...... 93

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Index of Tables

TABLE 2.1 BACKGROUNDS OF THE EXPERTS IN DELPHI PANEL ...... 22 TABLE 2.2 NUMBERS OF SAMPLES IN BOTH SYSTEMATIC AND SNOWBALL SAMPLING .... 23 TABLE 3.1: LAND USE AND AREAS OF MA TAU KOK ...... 26 TABLE 3.2 DISTRIBUTION OF ETHNICITIES OF RESIDENTS IN MA TAU KOK AND HONG KONG IN 2011 ...... 28 TABLE 3.3: MEDIAN MONTHLY INCOMES IN KAI TAK DISTRICT, SKY TOWER AND 13 STREETS ...... 29 TABLE 3.4 LOCAL BUSINESS IN 13 STREETS ...... 38 TABLE 3.5 TYPES OF SOCIAL SERVICES IN MA TAU KOK ...... 41 TABLE 3.6 LIST OF COMMUNITY AMENITIES IN MA TAU KOK ...... 42 TABLE 3.7 PLACE OF STUDY OF LOCAL RESIDENTS IN MA TAU KOK (2011 CENSUS) .... 44 TABLE 3.8 PLACE OF WORKING OF LOCAL RESIDENTS IN MA TAU KOK (2011 CENSUS) 44 TABLE 4.1 MEASURES OF SATISFACTION TOWARDS LIVING OR WORKING ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL COMMUNITY OF 13 STREETS ...... 47 TABLE 4.2 MEASURES OF THE SUPPORTS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF 13 STREETS...... 48 TABLE 4.3 DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL PEOPLE SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT BY AFFECTED PEOPLE ...... 48 TABLE 4.4 NEGATIVE IMPACTS FROM EXPERT CONSULTATION (DELPHI SURVEY) ...... 49 TABLE 4.5 PREDICTION FOR FUTURE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT REDEVELOPMENT...... 51 TABLE 4.6 INVESTIGATED IMPACTS SUMMARY ...... 52 TABLE 4.7 CROSS IMPACTS SUMMARY ...... 56 TABLE 6.1 SCENARIO 1- 13 STREETS WITH NO PLAN FOR REDEVELOPMENT ...... 65 TABLE 6.2 SCENARIO 2- 13 STREETS WITH REDEVELOPMENT UNDER URA MODE ...... 66

Index of Figures

FIGURE I DATA COLLECTION METHOD ...... 10 FIGURE 1.1 13 STREETS IN RED RECTANGULAR BOX ...... 17 FIGURE 1.2 AS AN OLD NEIGHBOURHOOD, 13 STREETS IS NOW SURROUNDED BY NEW DEVELOPMENTS ...... 18 FIGURE 1.3 THE NEARBY KAI TAK DEVELOPMENT AREA AND THE OPENING OF TO KWA WAN STATION OF SHATIN-CENTRAL LINK (SCL) MAY BRING OPPORTUNITIES TO THE PROSPECT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF 13 STREETS ...... 20 FIGURE 3.1 LAND USE OF MA TAU KOK AND 13 STREETS...... 25 FIGURE 3.2 AGE DISTRIBUTION IN MA TAU KOK IN 2006 AND 2011 (CENSTATD, 2006 &

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2011) ...... 27 FIGURE 3.3: MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN KAI TAK DISTRICT, 2006 AND 2011 ...... 29 FIGURE 3.4 MONTHLY DOMESTIC HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN KAI TAK DISTRICT, 2006 AND 2011 ...... 30 FIGURE 3.5 THE AGES OF 90 BUILDINGS IN 13 STREETS ...... 33 FIGURE 3.6 DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL BUSINESS TYPES IN 13 STREETS ...... 39 FIGURE 3.7 PERCENTAGE OF DIFFERENT SHOPS FOR GARAGE INDUSTRY ...... 40 FIGURE 3.8: THE TREND OF MOST COMMON CRIMES IN KE REGION FROM 2008 TO 2011 ...... 45 FIGURE 4.1 TOP 5 PROBLEMS OF CURRENT SITUATION IN 13 STREETS ...... 47 FIGURE 4.2 TOP 5 NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF REDEVELOPMENT ...... 50 FIGURE 4.3 POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS WITHOUT REDEVELOPMENT ...... 51 FIGURE 5.1 COMPARISON OF TOTAL WELL-BEING AS A WHOLE BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT AND NO ACTION ALTERNATIVE ...... 63

Index of Photos

PHOTO 1.1. FACING SOUTH, TSUN FAT STREET (駿發街) ...... 19 PHOTO 1.2 FACING WEST, MA TAU KOK ROAD, NEAR YIN ON STREET...... 19 PHOTO 1.3 GARAGES ARE COMMON IN 13 STREETS...... 19 PHOTO 1.4 INTERIOR CORRIDORS SHOW SIGNS OF DILAPIDATION ...... 19 PHOTO 3.1 A SHANGHAI-STYLE HAIR SALON ...... 31 PHOTO 3.2 A TRADITIONAL HONGKONG-STYLE CAFE ...... 31 PHOTO 3.3 A BILLBOARD OF SHANGHAI-STYLE HAIR SALON ...... 31 PHOTO 3.4 A SOUTH ASIAN GROCERY STORE ...... 31 PHOTO 3.5 JUNCTION BETWEEN KOWLOON CITY RD AND MOK CHEONG ST ...... 32 PHOTO 3.6 TSUN FAT STREET ...... 32 PHOTO 3.7 DIRTY ENVIRONMENT ...... 33 PHOTO 3.8 ELECTRIC WIRE DUCTS SPREAD OVER THE INTERNAL WALL DISORDERLY CAUSING SAFETY CONCERNS ...... 34 PHOTO 3.9: CLEANING RECORD ON NOTICE BOARDS AT BUILDING ENTRANCES ...... 34 PHOTO 3.10 ROOFTOP STRUCTURES ...... 35 PHOTO 3.11 ILLEGALLY CONSTRUCTED UNITS ON ROOFTOP ...... 35 PHOTO 3.12: A CLOSEUP OF A ROOFTOP STRUCTURE ...... 36 PHOTO 3.13 A CLOSEUP OF A ROOFTOP STRUCTURE ...... 36 PHOTO 3.14 MAILBOXES FOR ROOFTOP STRUCTURES ...... 36 PHOTO 3.15 ELECTRICITY METRES OF SUBDIVIDED FLATS ...... 37 PHOTO 3.16: SOCIAL SERVICES IN 13 STREETS ...... 42

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PHOTO 3.17: SOCIAL SERVICES IN 13 STREETS ...... 42 PHOTO 4.1 MR. LEUNG IS ONE OF THE OWNERS OF A GARAGE IN 13 STREETS...... 58 PHOTO 4.2 MS. NG (鑽姐) IS AN OLD LADY LIVING ALONE IN 13 STREETS...... 59

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Executive Summary

Background 13 Streets refers to a cluster of streets and buildings in Ma Tau Kok (馬頭角) of Kowloon City District, Kowloon. Being the largest remaining blocks of dilapidated tenement buildings built more than 50 years ago, it is home to working class residents and other vulnerable social groups marginalized by the mainstream society, such as ethnic minorities, new arrivals from Mainland China and the poor elderly. 13 Streets is also an area with distinct local characteristics. It has the highest concentration of garages in Hong Kong, and there are also numerous local businesses operating to serve the working class residents. However, subdivided units, illegal rooftop structures, deteriorating building conditions have become major problems to both the government and residents living there. There has been a demand for redevelopment in the community to resolve the worsening building conditions and to improve the living standards, which are by no means acceptable by today's standard and expectation to a decent living place. However, the complex ownership issue, scale of the redevelopment and the concern of the prospect of relocating the garage industry have become major obstacles to redevelopment.

Aim of the Study Even when the redevelopment pressure is mounting, the government should take into account of the stakeholders' views on the redevelopment issue carefully given the special context of 13 Streets. The presence of vulnerable groups in 13 Streets aforementioned is worth decision maker's attention that their rights and interests have to be properly considered and protected as far as the redevelopment is concerned. Therefore a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is conducted on the issue of redeveloping 13 Streets, with a view to provide an accurate assessment of impacts borne by its action or non-action on the redevelopment issue. The purpose of this study is to provide our assessment of the redevelopment impacts on the local community and its people so that the government can make an informed decision and take mitigation measures to minimize the negative impacts borne by the actions as appropriate. The ultimate aim of such is to propose a way forward for the government to act on so as to promote the well-being of the community of 13 Streets as a whole with interests of each individual being looked after.

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Methodology The SIA conducted is a systematic approach that involves both qualitative and quantitative data collection. It includes the following stages (further illustrated in Figure I):

- Community Profile: Compiling baseline condition to provide a snapshot and overview of the impacted community in 13 Streets;

- Delphi Survey: Preliminarily identifying the impacts of redevelopment or non-redevelopment by soliciting opinions from 16 experts relevant to the subject of redevelopment;

- Community Survey: Testifying the results in Step 2, and further identifying the impacts by engaging the impacted community using structured questionnaires from 78 samples and 12 follow-up interviews with the most affected groups identified over the process.

Figure I Data Collection Method

• Historical background • Socio-economic condition • Lifestyle • Community Ammenties • Housing Conditions Step 1-Community • Demographic characteristics Profile • Local economy (Baseline condition) • Public order

• Sourcing relevant experts to join the assessment panel • Self-administered qualitative questionnaires to solicit views on the proposed redevelopment Step 2-Delphi • Reaching consensus among experts by priortizing impacts to be addressed Survey

• Quantitative questionnaire designed using preliminary impacts identified in Delphi Survey • Field study in 13 Streets by face-to-face interviews with affected individuals Step 3-Community • Solicit their views towards redevelopment Survey

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The impacts identified are analyzed holistically and used to visualize in actual situation with an aim of further identifying the compounded and interactive impacts produced in real life setting as time progresses. Important impacts that require immediate attention are then selected on the basis of likelihood of occurrence and their magnitudes.

Key impacts identified A summary of impacts arising from the redevelopment that require immediate attention: Problems on Relocation and Local Rehousing

- Most affected groups are elderly, subdivided units and rooftop structure tenants. In particular, resettling a large proportion of elderly residents requires special attention.

- The mass eviction will push the property prices of the adjacent districts up, adding financial burden to the evicted residents.

- With limited financial resources they will face the difficulties in relocating to the same district.

- Triggering stress and anxiety among affected groups. Unaffordable costs of living

- Gentrification induced by redevelopment pushes living index up. - Heavy burden for working class residents in the area. Change of economic base

- Gentrification forces local business out causing loss of income, in particular garage industry.

- Local characteristics of the community are lost. - Change of local economy and employment structure leaving working class residents jobless.

Dramatic Social Changes and Conflicts

- Difficulties faced by affected residents in adapting to new living environment, in particular the elderly people.

- Eviction of working class residents and replaced by middle-class residents. - Dissolution of community network and local characteristics. - Conflicts arise around the issue of compensation levels.

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- The established communities of ethnic minorities with characteristics which are vital to their survival will be dissolved. Pollutions during the Construction Period

- Noise and air pollution compounded by traffic jam affect the neighouring community during the construction period.

Statement of predicted future in different scenarios Base on the baseline conditions and the impacts identified as the expected external changes, two transient scenarios are generated below to visualize the consequences of:

13 Streets with no plan for redevelopment

- In the long run, 13 Streets would witness a decline in all aspects that affects the well-being of the community, including building conditions, local economy and lifestyle, public safety and public order.

- The major external factor is the gradual gentrification induced by the opening of Shatin-Central Link and Kai Tak Development in proximity, which is unavoidable and significant.

- Mitigation measures are unlikely to be made possible as the factors are external to the community which happens in the wider social background, therefore the well-being of the community will unavoidably decline despite any measures taken.

13 Streets with redevelopment under Urban Renewal Authority (URA) mode

- Sharp changes adversely affecting the well-being of the community is expected right after the announcement of redevelopment plan.

- An improving prospect of well-being of the original community given that appropriate mitigation measures are put in place to assist the most affected groups, in particular the property owners, tenants of subdivided units and rooftop structures, elderly, ethnic minority and garage industry.

- The prominent problems to face are, among others, rehousing and its financial implications to households and local businesses, maintenance of the original community fabric and characteristics, and the reconstruction of the garage industry.

Mitigation measures for redevelopment In response to the scenario of redevelopment, the following mitigation measures

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are proposed to address the identified impacts: On impacts on individuals

- Using the existing Flat-to-flat scheme for property owners to ensure reasonable compensations are given;

- Provide compassionate rental allowance for tenants to facilitate them seeking alternative accommodations;

- Relocate elderly properly with a view to provide decent living place and maintain their original social network; and,

- Set up social worker teams to cater for individual needs. On impacts on households

- Provide adequate compensation and subsidy for families to maintain the previous living standard and smoothen the relocation process

- Properly relocate the garage industry to maintain income On impacts on community

- Set up dedicated areas in redeveloped site for relocation of original community

- Exercise rent control

- During reconstruction relocate the garages in nearby renovated factory buildings

Recommendations The aim of the SIA is to provide an accurate assessment of the consequences of the redevelopment or non-redevelopment, the comparison of which, together with the mitigation measures proposed, is to inform the decision maker the best way forward with an aim to enhance the well-being of the community. In late 2012, the Kowloon City District Urban Renewal Forum (DURF) completed the stage 1 Public Engagement, though it is set against a wider background of redevelopment of priority areas in the whole Kowloon City District. This SIA on 13 Streets is by no means comparable to the DURF SIA in terms of dispensable resources, time, scope and comprehensiveness; however, the research team believe that a closer look at the particular study area could provide important insights that a broader study would have otherwise overlooked. By the projection of the baseline condition of 13 Street, the prospect of the community is not optimistic, should there be no action in the years to come. By the principle of Pareto Optimality, of which is to make any one individual in the

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community better off without making at least one individual worse off, it is recommended to put forward the redevelopment project given that appropriate mitigation measures are put in place to address the negative impacts on the community associated with the redevelopment. From the DURF preliminary suggestions, there will be mitigation measures including, to divide the redevelopment of 13 Streets into 3 Stages and relocating the garage industry to a vacated industrial building in Kwai Chung. In order to explore ways to better mitigate the negative impacts, redevelopment of 13 Streets by phases could be an alternative way forward but not the only way. It is doubtful that there will be undiscovered impacts arising from these decisions as these were not considered in the first place concerning splitting the redevelopment into phases, and relocating the garages to Kwai Chung. This option has to be carefully assessed again by a separate SIA as it involves complicated factors arising from separating the redevelopment phases, which are not looked after in this study as well as the DURF SIA, and probably not known to the major stakeholders when the public engagement was underway.

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Full Report

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1. Overview

1.1 Location and Physical Setting 13 Streets is a cluster of streets in Ma Tau Kok (馬頭角), Kowloon (Please refer to Figure 1.1). At 2.84 hectares, it comprises 11 parallel streets named after auspicious animals in the Chinese culture and they were built at regular intervals, with the periphery streets bounded by sections of 3 other streets extending into the adjacent districts. The streets are namely: (a) Eleven parallel streets from West to East (the auspicious animals represented): - Lung To Street (龍圖街) [Dragon] - Fung Yi Street (鳳儀街) [Phoenix] - Luk Ming Street (鹿鳴街) [Deer] - Ying Yeung Street (鷹揚街) [Eagle] - Pang Ching Street (鵬程街) [Lark] - Hung Wan Street (鴻運街) [Egret] - Shim Luen Street (蟬聯街) [Cicida] - Yin On Street (燕安街) [Swallow] - Tsun Fat Street (駿發街) [Horse] - Hok Ling Street (鶴齡街) [Crane] (b) Four Streets in the periphery from the north clockwise: - Mok Cheong Street (木廠街) - To Kwa Wan Road (土瓜灣道) - Ma Tau Kok Road (馬頭角道) - Kowloon City Road (九龍城道)

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Figure 1.1 13 Streets in red rectangular box

Source: www.centamap.com (Retrieved: 20 May 2013)

There are 12 rectangular building blocks in parallel setting. The community and the adjacent areas are of mixed residential, industrial and commercial land uses.To the north-east of 13 Streets between Mok Cheong Street (木廠街) and Sung Wong Toi Road (宋皇臺道) there are industrial buildings, a workshop, a factory and a petrol station. To the south-east of the area are the workshops of Electrical & Mechanical Services Department as well as a commercial building “Newport Centre” (新寶中心). To the south-west are the Gas Plant of China Gas Co. and the Ex-cattle Depot Artists Village (牛棚藝術村). The Village has been revitalized by the government as an artist workshop. To the northwest are residential building blocks with land uses similar to the 13 Streets, but some are already undergoing redevelopment and residents have been evicted. After World War II, the area has been inhabited by working class people due to the presence of light industries nearby1. Mixed-uses old tenement buildings built after the relaxation of Building Ordinance in 1955 provided cheap and convenient accommodations for factory workers. The 13 Street building blocks were built during 1958-61. Due to ageing of the poor quality of buildings by today's standard, it has already become dilapidated beyond repairs (Photo 1.1-1.4). Following the decline of light industries in Hong Kong in 1980s-90s other

1 建築文化遺產研究中心，2010。

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residents of lower social status move into the area where they can seek cheap accommodations. In the past decades, population of ethnic minority residents in particular Indians and Pakistani has increased. There are signs of gentrification in the nearby area as modern private development e.g. Grand Waterfront (翔龍灣) and Sky Tower (傲雲峰) have emerged after the relaxation of control on building heights following the shutdown of ex-Kai Tak Airport in 1998 (refer to Figure 1.2). The ex-airport is undergoing a major development project featuring multi-purpose land uses such as commercial, residential and tourism. 13 Streets is also home to nearly 200 garages and car repairing workshops, the highest density in the city.

Figure 1.2 As an old neighbourhood, 13 Streets is now surrounded by new developments

Source: Google Maps (Retrieved: 20 May 2013)

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Photo 1.1. Facing South, Tsun Fat Street Photo 1.2 Facing West, Ma Tau Kok Road, (駿發街) near Yin On Street

Photo 1.3 Garages are common in 13 Streets Photo 1.4 Interior corridors show signs of dilapidation

1.2 Issues on redevelopment 13 Streets is one of the two major areas in Ma Tau Kok/To Kwa Wan recommended to be accorded priority in redevelopment due to its dilapidated conditions, according to a recent study (Centre for Architectural Heritage Research, 2010). The building blocks are now suffering conditions such as concrete spalling, bursting pipes, water seepage, erosion of steel reinforcement, etc., that are beyond efficient repairs. The health of buildings is deteriorated by the presence of illegal structures, including subdivided units and rooftop structures. However the eradication of these as well as the redevelopment plans has been hindered by the complex ownership in which the government/property developers cannot identify a single landlord to arrange redevelopment. The redevelopment is also encountered with problems such as eviction of a large population, mostly socially vulnerable such as elderly, new immigrants and ethnic minorities, and the poor, as well as the garage

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industries who are worried about their livelihood. The prospect of 13 Streets is hinged on two major factors: (1) The nearby Kai Tak Development Area and opening of Shatin Central Link To Kwa Wan Station in proximity (Figure 1.3) which may bring further pressures on redevelopment, and (2) The Urban Renewal Proposals for Kowloon City published by Kowloon City District Urban Renewal Forum in 2012, which has identified 13 Streets as a priority redevelopment area.

Figure 1.3 The nearby Kai Tak Development Area and the opening of To Kwa Wan Station of Shatin-Central Link (SCL) may bring opportunities to the prospect of redevelopment of 13 Streets

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2. Methodology

2.1 Overview of methodology The purpose of this research is to consider potential social impacts from redevelopment of 13 Streets. To assess those social impacts arising from redevelopment, the Social Impact Assessment (SIA) was adopted as a systematic approach to identify potential impacts of redevelopment and possible responses to the redevelopment in accord with the steps as the follows:

- Scoping

- Profiling - Prediction - Evaluation and assessment - Mitigation, monitoring and reviews - Recommendation2 As social impacts are complicated and diversified including tangible and intangible measures, therefore both qualitative and quantitative approaches had been undertaken to investigate the most significant impacts from the affected community. The affected community was regarded as the research area according to the boundary designated as the priority redevelopment area in 13 Streets by the Urban Renewal Authority (URA), including 12 buildings located at 13 Streets and more than 2350 households.

2.2 Research Design

2.2.1 Compiling Baseline Condition

To gain a fundamental understanding and the dynamics of the impacted community, a Community Profile was compiled by comparing census data, literatures, and on-site observation as baseline condition of its social environment, in order to provide basic understandings of 13 Streets and foster the changes in the future.

2.2.2 Preliminary Impacts Identification

Delphi Survey was used as a structured process for soliciting and consolidating

2 See Vanclay, F. 2003. International Principles for Social Impact Assessment, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 21(1): 5-11.

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opinions from a group of experts on a particular social issue through three rounds of questionnaires until a consensus among the experts was reached3. The Delphi survey began with forming a panel of experts and giving a brief on the proposed redevelopment as a basis of assessment. At the end of each round, the expert opinions and impacts were summarized and prioritized (Appendix 1 is the sample questionnaire in final round). The expert penal includes members with various backgrounds shown in table 2.1, a total of 26 experts were invited in the Delphi survey, and as a result 16 experts completed and the dropout rate was 38.46%.

Table 2.1 Backgrounds of the Experts in Delphi Panel Academics Professionals Professor in Architecture Legislative Councilor Lecturer in Asian Policy District Councilors Lecturer in Public Administration Practicing Architect University Graduate in Environmental Former Chief Fire Inspector Policy Associate Professor in Urban Renewal Social Advocate in local community CEO of Local Think Tank Real Estate Manager Officer in Social Welfare Department Surveyor in building maintenance Board member in Association of Police Constables Social Worker Convener in Subdivided Flats Concerned Group

2.2.3 Public Engagement

In view of the importance to involve the public in the SIA, a community survey has been undertaken as a quantitative method to gather different kinds of opinions from the affected people and testify the impacts summarized in the Delphi survey.

3 Refer to Linstone, H., Turaff, M. 2002. The Delphi Method, Techniques and Applications.

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Table 2.2 Numbers of samples in both systematic and snowball sampling Total Stratified Snowball Total number of Respondent Rate for visits sampling sampling samples stratified sampling

384 70 8 78 18.23%

As shown in Table 2.2, this survey adopted both stratified sampling and snowball sampling. 384 households and shops located at the street number 21 to 24 which were selected randomly. After 384 knock-the-door visits, 70 questionnaires were completed. As the sample frame is 14.29% of total flats, 18.23% of respondent rate is acceptable owing to time constraints (Appendixes 2.1 and 2.2 are the sample questionnaires for this survey). Since probability sampling may not include some specific group of population, in particular ethnic minorities, snowball sampling was applied to collect the views form ethnic minorities, eight more questionnaires were completed. Besides, follow-up interviews have also been conducted to investigate the specific needs and expectations among six groups of affected people in a way of qualitative method. A total 12 interviews among those target affected people were conducted, in representing real situations and expectations through narrating their views.

2.3 Data analyses The impacts from baseline condition, Delphi survey and community survey are regarded as primitive impacts, those are single and independent. In considering cumulative and interactive effects and the relationships among impacts, Cross Impact Matrix and Relevant Impact Tree were taken in the impact identification process to find out all possible interactions and relationships. To illustrate the characteristics and needs of affected people, case study was also applied in qualitative analysis of the information from follow-up interviews. In order to predict future social changes based on baseline condition and identified impacts, scenarios were generated to demonstrate what 13 Streets will change in different periods as a whole picture. Impacts identified in Community Profile, Delphi Survey and Community Survey were considered holistically. Planning impacts and delayed impact are considered under the Dynamic System Model (Impacts do not take place in isolation and will interact with each other to produce compounded and accumulative impacts) and Comparative Diachronic Model (Impacts will take place along timeline with different durations). The impacts were then considered by the likelihood of occurrence and their magnitudes to determine its importance, so that focus could be made as to identifying relevant impacts and therefore the mitigations against them. The strategies for

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mitigation were formulated in considering the principle of Pareto Optimality, ensuring that no one would be the loser even though some may obtain more after implementing any plan on 13 Streets.

2.4 Limitations - No specific census data for 13 Streets were directly compared as the Census and Statistics Department only provided the data of Ma Tau Kok.

- The expert panel in Delphi survey did not include any expert related to the fields of History and Social Gerontology since these experts dropped out in the beginning.

- Without connections to all community leaders and available venue, no public forum or Nominal Group Technique was adopted.

- The sample size of Community Survey was smaller than expected due to the relatively low response rate (18%) In views of the limitations above, the team adopted site observation to verify the population characteristics and community features in baseline condition. Also, follow-up interviews to those affected people could collect public opinions in details, which was the other form of opinion exchange within the community. Despite a low response rate of the survey, most samples were selected in probability manner and relatively close to the population characteristics. Our team believed this research is reliable and representative.

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3. Baseline Condition – Community Profile

3.1 History After the outbreak of the Chinese Civil War in late 1940s, Hong Kong has harnessed the influx of immigrants from Mainland China by building its industries in 1950s.Many factories were built in To Kwa Wan and Ma Tau Kok, especially along the coast of To Kwa Wan. Ma Tau Kok Gas Plant was also built in Ma Tau Kok Road at that time. Most of the factories built in the 1960s-70s can still be found in To Kwa Wan. The area has traditionally provided cheap and convenient accommodation for factory workers nearby. Since local industries declined in 1980s, cheap accommodations, including 13 Streets, have been home to low-income working class, elderly and ethnic minorities, etc4. The ex-Cattle Depot Artist village is in immediately south of 13 Streets. After the cattle depot has been relocated to Sheung Shui in 1999, 13 Streets have provided affordable venues for the artists and designers working in the Artist Village.

3.2 Land use Figure 3.1 Land use of Ma Tau Kok and 13 streets

4 Refer to Unit for Community Building. 2009. Historical cum Social Study on Kowloon City district in connection with KaiTak area.

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The total area of Ma Tau Kok is 273,668m2 and that of 13 Streets is 28,417m2. An analysis of the current land use (Figure 3.1) shows most of the area is zoned as Residential (R) and a certain proportion as Government, Institution and Community (G/IC) as well as open space (OU). Types of land use in Ma Tau Kok and their areas are listed below:

Table 3.1: Land use and areas of Ma Tau Kok Land use Area (m2) Residential (R) 161,606 Comprehensive Development Area 56,668 (CDA) Commercial (C) 2,123 Government, Institution and 16,146 Community (G/IC) Open space (OU) 37,126 Total area 273,669

13 Streets is zoned as CDA which represent half of CDA zones (50.14%) in Ma Tau Kok. It is surrounding by other three types of land use. G/IC and OU cover 5.90% and 13.57% for G/IC and OU respectively, which is fairly adequate in rundown urban area. The holistic land use planning has created a 15-minute local living perimeters for local residents

3.3 Demographic characteristics Since the specific demographic data limited to 13 Streets is not available, the research team has to adopt the data of the smallest sampling unit available in Census 2006 and 2011, with the assumption that demographic characteristics in 13 Streets and Ma Tau Kok are comparable.

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3.2.1 Age distributions

The age distribution in Ma Tau Kok is extracted in Figure 3.2 below.

Figure 3.2 Age Distribution in Ma Tau Kok in 2006 and 2011 (Censtatd, 2006 & 2011)

70-74

60-64

50-54

40-44

30-34

20-24

10-14

0-4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 0-4 5-9 10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-74 75+ 2011 2203 1408 2393 3030 2945 3406 4663 3938 3877 4270 3750 3539 3339 1815 2062 4392 2006 1580 1927 2419 2808 2773 4290 4418 3674 4523 4168 3627 3562 1848 1920 1500 2713

A few characteristics of population in Ma Tau Kok that requires attention are: - In 2006, 12.8% (6,133) of population in Ma Tau Kok (47,750) is 65 years old or above; In 2011, the percentage surged to 16.2% (8,269 of 51,030); - The percentage of elderly (65 year old+) is higher than territory-wide average in 2011 (13.3%), according to Census 2011; - A more significant increase is noticed in Age Group above 75 years old. A slight increase is also noticed in Age Group 70-74; and, - The percentage of Age Group 20-64 (possible working population) has slightly gone downward from 68% (32,883) to 66% (33,727). Together with higher proportion of elders they suggest a possible higher dependency ratio in Ma Tau Kok.

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3.2.2 Ethnicity

Ethnicities of residents in Ma Tau Kok in Census 2011 are extracted in Table 3.2 below: Table 3.2 Distribution of ethnicities of residents in Ma Tau Kok and Hong Kong in 2011 Population in % in Ma Tau Kok % in HK Ma Tau Kok Chinese 48,584 95.2 93.6 Pakistani 668 1.3 0.3 Filipino 526 1.0 1.9 Indonesian 486 1.0 1.9 Indian 237 0.5 0.4 Thai 159 0.3 0.2 Others5 370 0.7 1.7 Total 51,030 100.0 100

There is no distinct difference of ethnic concentrations between Ma Tau Kok and Hong Kong as a whole. However, the percentage of Pakistani, Indian and Thai are higher than Hong Kong average. It could be of the fact that they have a lower monthly household income from main employment than Hong Kong average ($10,000 for Pakistani and $8,500 for Thai, Hong Kong average is $12,000), in particular Pakistanis, where labour force participation is especially low due to cultural factor (46% as compared to 59.7% Hong Kong average). Pakistanis are facing a heavier financial burden with lower income and it is more likely they move to Ma Tau Kok seeking cheaper accommodation and stronger community support.

3.4 Economic status Most residents in 13 Streets are working class. It is deduced from Census data that the Individual and domestic household monthly incomes are lower than Hong Kong average. Referring to Table 3.3, by comparing Census data of Kai Tak Constituency6 and Sky Tower, it is known that Kai Tak Constituency data is skewed by Sky Tower data,

5 Including "Other Asians", "Japanese", "White" etc., as categorized in Census 2011.

6 Kai Tak Constituency is an administrative division under Kowloon City District, comprising the vacant ex-Kai Tak Airport, 13 Streets, and Sky Tower, and a few building blocks around them. A majority of residents included in Census are from Sky Tower and 13 Streets alone.

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it is reasonable to deduce that 13 Streets residents should be earning a median individual and domestic income less than 12,000 and 20,600.

Table 3.3: Median Monthly Incomes in Kai Tak district, Sky Tower and 13 Streets Kai Tak Constituency Sky Tower

Median monthly individual 12,000 21,000 income Median monthly domestic 20,600 40,000 household income Source: Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department, 2011 Population Census. http://www.census2011.gov.hk/en/main-table/E201.html

Figure 3.3 & 3.4 show that the income of residents in this Kai Tak Constituency has been increasing in the past seven years. However, it is worthwhile to note that the increase of monthly domestic household income is less than HKD2,000.

Figure 3.3: Monthly Individual Income Distribution in Kai Tak district, 2006 and 2011

Source: Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department, 2011 Population Census and 2006 Population By-census (2011and 2006).

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Figure 3.4 Monthly Domestic Household Income Distribution in Kai Tak district, 2006 and 2011

Source: Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department, 2011 Population Census and 2006 Population By-census (2011and 2006).

3.4 Lifestyle 13 Streets is a working class community characterized by simple lifestyle. Ethnic Minority community of South Asian origin is also noticeable in 13 Streets. Basic necessities and services for daily life such as traditional Hongkong-style cafes (冰室), grocery stores (雜貨舖), Shanghai-style hair salons (上海理髮店) and pharmacy were found (see Photos 3.1-3.2). The renovations and mode of business have largely remained unchanged for the past decades, therefore to the outsiders 13 Streets is characterized by a nostalgic atmosphere. Cost of living is low: Hair-dressing in a Shanghai-style hair salon costs only HKD30 per adult and HKD25 per child (see Photo 3.3); a breakfast costs around HKD22 to 26. As the landscape is dominated by garages, residents seldom stroll around the streets. Streets are deserted even in the afternoon.

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Photo 3.1 A Shanghai-style hair salon Photo 3.2 A Traditional Hongkong-style cafe

Photo 3.4 A South Asian grocery store Photo 3.3 A billboard of Shanghai-style hair salon

13 Streets is also home to South Asians, in particular Indians and Pakistani, who have largely practicing the lifestyle in their home countries. Imported products from their home countries such as herbs can be found in local grocery stores (see Photo 3.4). Their social activities have remained isolated from their Chinese neighbours. It is also known that there are several mosques in To Kwa Wan to serve the religious needs of local Muslims and Pakistani.

3.5 Housing Photos 3.5 and 3.6 show a typical housing in 13 Streets. There are 90 buildings with 2,898 flats in 13 Streets. They are all constructed in the 1960s-style tenement (唐

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樓) with balconies which provide covered pedestrians on the ground level. According to the “Database of Private Buildings in Hong Kong”7 maintained by Home Affairs Department (HAD), as indicated in Figure 3.5,these tenements are over 50 years old and 6-storey tall for residential and commercial purpose.

Photo 3.5 Junction between Kowloon City Rd and Mok Cheong St

Photo 3.6 Tsun Fat Street

7 “Database of Private Buildings in Hong Kong”. 2008. HKSAR Home Affairs Department. http://www.buildingmgt.gov.hk/en/database_of_private_buildings_in_hong_kong/12.htm

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Figure 3.5 the Ages of 90 buildings in 13 Streets

Generally, these tenements lack proper management and maintenance. Only a handful of property owners in a few buildings are incorporated. Without property management, the living environment is generally substandard, sometimes dirty and gloomy (Photos 3.7-3.8), though it is noticed that residents of several buildings have employed cleaning workers to keep basic hygiene (Photo 3.9). These buildings are not equipped with elevators and it becomes a major hindrance to the residents, in particular the elderly who might have to climb up the stairs.

Photo 3.7 Dirty environment

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Photo 3.8 Electric wire ducts spread over the internal wall disorderly causing safety concerns

Photo 3.9: Cleaning record on notice boards at building entrances

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Illegal structures are very common in 13 Streets, including rooftop structures built by iron sheets and illegally subdivided unit (see Photos 3.10 – 3.15). Fire Services Department and Buildings Department have requested clearance of the illegal structures out of the concern of fire hazards and building safety. However, the effort is in vain due to the complex ownerships and the lack of management.

Photo 3.10 Rooftop structures

Photo 3.11 Illegally constructed Units on Rooftop

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Photo 3.13 A closeup of a Rooftop structure

Photo 3.12: A closeup of a Rooftop structure

Photo 3.14 Mailboxes for rooftop structures

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Photo 3.15 Electricity metres of subdivided flats

3.6 Local Economy Referring to Table 3.4 and Figure 3.6 show the numbers of different business types in 13 Streets found in site visit. A total 414 shops was identified with 42 believed to be unoccupied. 13 Streets is a garage-concentrated area with over 63% of shops related to the industry. These include hardware stores and maintenance workshops. The rest of shops provides daily necessities, albeit in smaller number.

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Table 3.4 Local Business in 13 Streets Business Type 1st Group8 2nd Group9 3rd Group10 Total Garage 53 56 59 168 Interior decoration 31 15 13 59 materials, Building materials Hardware Store 6 8 3 17 Motor Accessories 7 0 5 12 Lathe-Mechanics Factory 0 2 0 2 License Agency 1 1 0 2 Car parts 0 1 0 1 261 Food, Beverage & 10 8 4 22 Restaurant Real-estate Agency 6 2 4 12 Grocery 6 3 3 12 Hair Salon 3 1 5 9 Handcraft 1 0 4 5 Clinic 2 1 1 4 Food Distributor 0 3 1 4 Laundry 0 1 1 2 Recycling 1 1 0 2 Gas provider / supplier 0 1 0 1 73 NGO 0 1 1 2 2 Subtotal 127 105 104 336

Without information 13 10 16 39 Others 3 0 33 36 Un-occupied 0 3 0 3 Total 143 118 153 414

8 1st group includes LUNG TO ST, FUNG YI ST, LUK MING ST, LUN CHENG ST (odd numbers) and KOWLOON CITY RD (even numbers). 9 2nd group includes YING YEUNG ST, PANG CHING ST, HUNG WAN ST, LUN CHENG ST(even numbers) and SHIM LUEN ST (odd numbers). 10 3rd group includes SHIM LUEN ST (even numbers), YIN ON ST, TSUN FAT ST, HOK LING ST and TO KWA WAN RD.

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Figure 3.6 Distribution of local business types in 13 Streets

Garage

Interior decoration materials, Building materials Food, Beverage & Restaurant

Hardware Store

Real-estate Agencies

Motor Accessories

Grocery

Hair Salon

Handcraft

Clinic

Food Distributor

Lathe-Mechanical Factory

Figure 3.7 shows that garage is the majority part for garage industry (83%), followed by Hardware Store and motor accessories are at 8% and 6% respectively. It is known that the garage industry in 13 Streets have built a strong customer networks mostly by word of mouth. Occasional customers represent only a small percentage of their business.

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Figure 3.7 Percentage of different shops for garage industry

Garage Industry

Garage Hardware Store Motor Accessories Lathe-Mechanics Factory License Agency Car Parts 1% 1% 1% 6% 8%

83%

3.7 Community services There is a wide range of social services in 13 Streets (See Table 3.5). For instance family and child welfare services, services for the elderly, rehabilitation services, services for youth and social security, etc. Many service centres like The Hong Kong Society for the Blind - Bradbury C&A Home for the Aged Blind, Hong Chi Association Hong Chi Ma Tau Kok Workshop and Hong Chi Association Hong Chi Job Training and Employment Service (Kowloon) are situated in the 13 Streets. Local residents from 13 Streets can easily access these different services.

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Table 3.5 Types of Social Services in Ma Tau Kok Family and Child Welfare 1 Integrated Family Service Centre Social Welfare Department – Kai Tak Integrated Family Service Centre Social Security 2 Social Welfare Department - To Kwa Wan Social Security Field Unit Services for the Elderly Services 3 District Elderly Community Centre & Integrated Home Care Service Sheng Kung Hui Welfare Council – Lok Man Alice Kwok Integrated Service Centre 4 Neighbourhood Elderly Centre Hong Kong Family Welfare Society – Senior Citizen Centre (Kowloon City) 5 Enhanced Home and Community Care Service Team Tung Wah Group of Hospitals – Kowloon City Enhanced Home and Community Care Services (39 Sheung Shing Street, Homantin) 6 Private Residential Care Homes for the Elderly Shun Yan Elderly Centre Limited 7 Hong Lok Yuen Aaged Sanatorium Centre Limited 8 Fai-to Sino-west Combined Home for The Aged Rehabilitation Services 9 The Hong Kong Society for the Blind – Factory for the Blind The Hong Kong Society for the Blind - Bradbury C&A Home for the Aged Blind 10 Sheltered Workshop Hong Chi Association - Hong Chi Ma Tau Kok Workshop 11 Integrated Programme in Kindergarten-cum-Child Care Centre Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children HKSPC Ma Tau Chung Nursery School 12 Supported Employment Hong Chi Association Hong Chi Job Training and Employment Service (Kowloon) Services for Young People 13 Integrated Children and Youth Service Centre, After School Care Programme and Family Support Networking Team Hong Kong Sheng Kung Hui Welfare Council Hong Kong Sheng Kung Hui Kowloon City Children and Youth Integrated Service Centre - Jockey Club Youth Express Other Services 14 The Boys’ Brigade, Hong Kong – Tokwawan Waste Recovery Scheme 15 Christian Action – To Kwa Wan Service Centre

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As shown in Photos 3.16 and 3.17, two service centres operated by Non-Governmental Organizations are located within 13 Streets. They are the The Boys’ Brigade, Hong Kong Tokwawan Waste Recovery Scheme and Christian Action To Kwa Wan Service Centre respectively. The former liaises with local residents and their tenant corporations in To Kwa Wan to promote recycling project, while the latter provides assistance to domestic helpers and migrant workers.

Photo 3.17: Social Services in 13 Streets Photo 3.16: Social Services in 13 Streets

3.8 Community Amenities Ma Tau Kok has a variety of community amenities, ranging from schools, health clinics, service programmes and amenities for leisure and cultural activities. Residents in 13 Streets could go to adjoining amenities within half an hour. Table 12 indicates the types of such amenities.

Table 3.6 List of Community Amenities in Ma Tau Kok Community Amenities Quantity Name Kindergartens 3 Sun Island English Kindergarten May Nga Nursery Ho Oi Day Nursery (Sponsored by Sik Sik Yuen) Primary Schools 3 Po Leung Kuk Lam Man Chan English Primary School ELCHK Hung Hom Lutheran Primary School SKH Good Shepherd Primary School Secondary Schools 4 New Asia Middle School Heep Yunn School Tang King Po School The Amoy College

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Community Amenities Quantity Name Clinics 6 To Kwa Wan Chinese Medicine Clinic Lui Lin Chinese Clinic STFA Leung Kau Kui Clinic Yan Chai Hospital Dental Clinic Emmanuel Medical Centre Dr Choi Wai Wan Clinic Fire Station 1 Ma Tau Chung Fire Station Police Station 1 Report Room of Hung Hom Division Post Office 1 To Kwa Wan Post Office Street Posting Box 2 To Kwa Wan Box No. 193 To Kwa Wan Box No. 200 District Office 1 To Kwa Wan Sub-office Toilets 1 Ma Tau Kok Road Public Toilet And Bath House Library 1 To Kwa Wan Public Library Market and 1 To Kwa Wan Municipal Services Bldg Government Offices And Government Offices Parks and Recreation 9 Billiard Casttle Depot Artist Village Hoi Sam Park King Wan Street Playground Tin Kwong Road Tennis Court To Kwa Wan Complex Playground To Kwa Wan Recreational Ground To Kwa Wan Road Garden To Kwa Wan Sport Centre

3.9 Transportation Residents in Ma Tau Kok mainly rely on public transport such as bus and minibus services as the railway has not been extended to the area. There are three bus stops and three minibus stops around 13 Streets, with bus routes covering most parts of the territory. Besides, local residents also rely on ferry at Kowloon City Pier, which is within walking distance from 13 Streets, to travel to Hong Kong Island. The nearest MTR station is Hung Hom station by a transit journey on bus with travelling time of about 20-30 minutes. This has caused certain inconvenience for local residents. With reference to Tables 3.7 and 3.8, more than half and one third of local residents have towork and study outside Ma Tau Kok respectively. Obviously, there is a huge demand for a better and comprehensive transportation network. When the Shatin Central Link (SCL) extends to Ma Tau Kok in 2018 the travelling to East Kowloon and Hong Kong Island will also be greatly shortened. SCL can overcome the bottleneck of the current transportation network in Ma Tau Kok, especially for destinations such as the Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai and Admiralty on Hong Kong Island.

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Table 3.7 Place of Study of local residents in Ma Tau Kok (2011 Census) Place of Study Persons Attending Full-time Courses in Educational Institutions in Hong Kong In same district # 1 417 In another district Hong Kong Island 131 Kowloon 449 New towns 220 Other areas in the New 7 Territories Total 2 224 Proportion of persons attending full-time 63.7 courses in educational institutions in Hong Kong with place of study in same district (%)

Table 3.8 Place of working of local residents in Ma Tau Kok (2011 Census) Working Population Place of Work Male Female Both Sexes In same district # 722 612 1 334 In another district Hong Kong Island 1 032 1 130 2 162 Kowloon 1 068 842 1 910 New towns 581 237 818 Other areas in the 105 105 210 New Territories No fixed places/Marine 345 100 445 Work at home 50 374 424 Places outside Hong Kong 140 22 162 Total 4 043 3 422 7 465 Proportion of working population 17.9 17.9 17.9 with place of work in same district (%)

3.10 Public Order 13 Streets belongs to Sau Mau Ping Police District, part of Kowloon East (KE) Region classified by the Police Force. In line with KE Region crime reports, the trend of crime was decreasing (Figure 3.8). However, the characteristics of 13 Streets are different from other parts of Hong Kong. It is observed that vehicle-related offences

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and theft offences are the most common crimes happened in 13 Streets due to a large amount of garages and hardware stores operating there. Owing to lack of night life, night-robbery becomes another concern of local people. Without main gate and security guards for the tenements, strangers can freely enter and exit those building, crime reports like burglary, going equipped for stealing and loitering are often been made. Despite the poor living conditions in 13 Streets, triads, syndicated and organized crimes are relatively low.

Figure 3.8: the trend of most common crimes in KE region from 2008 to 2011

3.11 Prospects of the community - The existing 13 Streets is a microcosm of working class life in Hong Kong. Redevelopment could destroy the working class stories and memories.

- From the Census statistics one has to be aware of the higher proportion of elderly population with less family financial support may face various problems relating to redevelopment. More emphasis has to be put on the eviction process in which the elderly may have to encounter adaptation problem, maintenance of previous living standard, community support network, etc.

- The elderly owners are facing poor but familiar living environment since they live here for more than three decades. Although redevelopment could open a window to improve their living environment, limited amount of compensation may not be enough for them to resettle in the same district.

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- As for the ethnic minority residents, the decision makers have to take into account of the presence of the higher proportion of Pakistani, Thai and Indian population and their individual characteristics and needs (such as the presence of mosque in Pakistani community; the less financial resources available for ethnic minorities for removal), and their community network and its importance to their survival.

- As a part of the working class life, being thrifty and living a simple life style are vital to their survival. Redevelopment would cause immense disruption to their life. Ethnic minorities are also put in danger of demise of their community network and, if relocated to another district, could face the loss of religious life.

- Subdivided units and rooftop structures offer relatively low rent than ordinary flats, thus attracting vulnerable groups such as ethnic minorities, new arrivals from Mainland China, working class and the elderly to live in this area. Redevelopment could lift property values up in Ma Tau Kok, which will further limit their choice of accommodation in the city area if they are evicted.

- 13 Streets provides affordable housing for working class residents who do not have adequate income to rent other accommodation in other districts. Resettlement will be a main concern for them if redevelopment is to be put forward.

- As a garage-concentrated area, 13 Streets has its own advantages in supporting the local industry of car repairs. Redevelopment would wipe out the existing business of garage industry.

- Given that there is no community centre in the Kowloon City District, there is a need to build communal facilities such as Community Centre to meet the needs of local residents.

- Due to the construction of SCL, the Kowloon City Pier Bus Terminal will be closed temporarily. The Ma Tau Kok Public Pier will also be demolished. This will change the landscape and character of Ma Tau Wai, and even Ma Tau Kok, especially in terms of property value, living and business environments, and public amenities.

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4. Impact Identifications and Analyses

4.1 Issues Raised in Consultation and Public Engagement From the results in the Delphi study, the most urgent issues identified are related to the growing numbers of illegal subdivided flats and worsening living environment, it is consistent with the implications found in the baseline conditions. In addition, land use and land supply in 13 Streets are also of deep concern as population density is already very high. Moreover, experts likewise worried about the issue of transportation network (associated with SCL) in town planning and development in the long term. Figure 4.1 displays the five most severely problems of current situations in 13 Streets, including dilapidated buildings, poor living standard, illegal building structure, problem of public order and lack of fire safety facilities respectively. These five severely problems are concerning the perspectives of building safety and living environment. In particular, more than half of respondents felt that dilapidated building (64.1%) and poor living environment (53.85%) are the most serious problems.

Figure 4.1 Top 5 Problems of Current Situation in 13 Streets

70.00%

60.00% 64.10%

50.00% 53.85%

40.00%

30.00% 35.90% 28.21% 26.92% 20.00%

10.00%

0.00% Dilapidated Poor living Illegal building Problem of Lack of fire buildings standard structure public order safety facilities

Table 4.1 Measures of Satisfaction towards living or working environment and overall community of 13 Streets Level of satisfaction Living or Working Environment 2.46 Overall Community 2.83 Results will be scored from 1 to 5, 1 = less satisfactory, 3 = moderate, 5 = most satisfactory

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The scores in Table 4.1 are measuring the satisfaction towards 13 Streets in terms of living or working environment in micro-level, and overall community in macro-level. Both living or working environment and the overall community are scored below the average score with 2.46 and 2.83 respectively, reflecting that local people are not satisfied with the current situation especially living or working environment, although they are relatively satisfied to the overall community.

Table 4.2 Measures of the supports for redevelopment of 13 Streets Degree of support Support to redevelopment 3.56 Results will be scored from 1 to 5, 1 = strongly oppose, 2 = oppose, 3 = no preference, 4 = support, 5 = strongly support

Table 4.3 Distribution of local people supporting redevelopment by affected people Strongly No Strongly Oppose Support Total Oppose Preference Support Property Owners 0 2 0 14 15 31 Tenants 3 2 2 16 10 33 Business Employers 1 0 3 1 2 7 Business Employees 0 1 0 3 2 6 Other 0 0 1 0 0 1 Total 4 5 6 34 29 78

As shown in Table 4.2, there is a slightly high degree in supporting redevelopment (scored 3.56) in 13 Streets, implying that redevelopment may fulfill the preferences of the majority of local residents. Table 4.3 reveals that tenants and business employers have shown strong opposition against redevelopment of 13 Streets even if the numbers are not significantly high, whereas most local affected people will support redevelopment. It is affirmed that demand in improving current situation concerning building safety and living environment is clear, any measures can resolve these problems may be favored by local people especially redevelopment.

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4.2 Impacts Raised in Consultation and Public Engagement In views of the issues raised about the current situations and high probability in redeveloping the area, this assessment will focus more on assessing the negative impacts arising from the redevelopment.

4.2.1 Negative Impacts from Expert Consultation

Table 4.4 Negative Impacts from Expert Consultation (Delphi Survey) Impact Summary Negative Impacts Living standard will Gentrification of the community may occur after the increase to an unaffordable redevelopment; level which may cause Increased rentals and inflation in the redeveloped burdens on local residents. community. Rising demands of cheap No protection and compensation for tenants of illegal accommodations subdivided flats and rooftop structures. They may not be able to find cheap accommodation in the same district when there is a long queue waiting to get into public housing units. Community characteristics Traditional community and public space along with its and network will disappear own local character, community network and identity will be lost in redevelopment Local economy will vanish Local economy is uprooted and small businesses such especially garage industry as garages and vehicle workshops will vanish. Pollutions will occur during Noise and air pollution, and increased traffic are construction unavoidable during the construction phase of the redevelopment, and huge amount of construction & demolition waste will be produced.

For negative impacts identified in the Delphi survey listed in table 4.4, the experts highlighted once again that they were most concerned about the impacts of gentrification on local residents. Particularly, the redeveloped community will be attracting more middle-class residents, displacing the working-class residents. At the same time, local business, local networks, and community culture and local character will be rapidly destroyed. The problems of waste, air and noise pollutions will be severe from experts' views, however for local residents, these seem trivial when comparing with the rising living standards in the surroundings areas.

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4.2.2 Negative Impacts from Public Engagement

Figure 4.2 Top 5 Negative Impacts of Redevelopment

40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 34.62% 25.00% 29.49% 26.92% 20.00% 24.36% 21.79% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Problems of Conflicts Difficulties of Homelessness Problems under removal and concerning locally rehousing rising living rehousing compensation standard scheme

From the Community Survey, the top five negative impacts of redevelopment identified are displayed in Figure 4.2. None of those negative impacts were chosen by more than half of respondents. 34.62% of respondents reflected removal and rehousing are the most several impact, followed by conflicts concerning compensation scheme is at 29.49%. Difficulties of local rehousing, homelessness and problems under rising living standard all have population more than 20%, with 26.92%, 24.36% and 21.79% respectively. In short, negative impacts proposed by the public are mainly problems of accommodations and resettlement, as well as unaffordable costs of living after redevelopment.

4.3 Predictions for Future Development without Redevelopment

From the Delphi Survey, the experts believed that the current living environment and quality of houses will continue to deteriorate in the future if no redevelopment takes place, leading to further decline in public hygiene, fire safety, and dilapidation of building as shown in table 4.5.

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Table 4.5 Prediction for future community development without Redevelopment 1 Continual decline of living conditions (e.g. poor public hygiene). 2 Greater risks in safety due to from the growing number of illegally built structures (e.g. unauthorised building works and flat sub-division). 3 Widening social gaps between the new Kai Tak and 13 Streets. 4 Partial redevelopment will occur. 5 Worsening problems of aging population.

Figure 4.3 Possible Future Scenarios without Redevelopment 70.00%

60.00% 62.82%

50.00% 55.13%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00% 25.64% 20.51% 10.00% 7.69% 0.00% Increasing the risk Worsening living Accelerating Increasing number Dropping down of of building problem environment population aging of South East Asian property value household

Figure 4.3 shows the possible future scenarios without redevelopment found in the Community Survey. Over half of respondents thought that increasing the risk of building problem (62.82%) and worsening living environment (55.13%) would most likely happen in the future if there is no redevelopment, while rapid population aging, increasing influx of South East Asian households and fall of property values would also be possible, with 25.64%, 20.51% and 7.69% of respondents respectively.

4.4 Impacts Analysis Those impacts identified from baseline condition in Community Profile, consultation in Delphi Survey and Community Survey are mapped and sequenced as shown below in table 4.6, a summary of significant adverse impacts from redevelopment.

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Table 4.6 Investigated Impacts Summary Priority Perspectives Impacts Raised Direct/ Temporary/ Affected Dimensions Indirect Permanent People 1 Relocation I3 - Homelessness Direct Temporary Tenants in Individual and local subdivided rehousing unit 1 Relocation I4 - Problems of removal Direct Temporary All Individual and local and re-housing population rehousing 1 Relocation I9 - Difficulties for Direct Permanent Tenants Individual and local working class people to rehousing find cheap accommodation 1 Relocation I10 - Rooftop tenants and Direct Temporary Rooftop Individual and local occupants will face the tenants and rehousing difficulties of the housing occupants 1 Relocation H6 - Difficulty of local Direct Temporary Property Household and local rehousing Owners rehousing 1 Relocation H9 – Increasing land Indirect Temporary All Household and local demand and rising property population rehousing prices 2 Dramatic I8 – Owners especially the Indirect Temporary Elderly Individual Social elderly not being able to Changes and adapt the new Conflicts environments 3 Unaffordable C5 - Gentrification of Indirect Permanent All Community Cost of Living community, rise of population consumption price in surrounding community 3 Change of H1 - Local businesses Direct Permanent local Household economic base being forced out and business workers will lose incomes 3 Change of C1 – The local economy, Direct Permanent local Community economic base in particular garages and business small businesses will vanish

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4 Dramatic H4 – Ethnic Minorities Indirect Permanent Ethnic Household Social being left out and their minorities Changes and needs being ignored Conflicts 4 Dramatic H5 – Uncertainty in Indirect Temporary Property Household Social compensation Owners, Changes and tenants Conflicts 5 Disappearance C4 – Wipe out of original Direct Permanent All Community of Local community and destruction population Culture and of social network Community 6 Pollutions I6 - Environmental Direct Temporary Residents Individual during the pollution during the next to 13 Construction construction Streets Period

4.4.1 Problems on Relocation and local rehousing

4.4.1.1 Problems on Relocation (I3, I9, H9, I10) Various problems on housing and relocation will emerge from redevelopment. As indicated in the Community Profile, this is a poor working class area. For property owners, they fear that the compensation they are offered will not be sufficient to allow them to purchase a new flat in another district. The elderly residents further fear that they may not be able to adapt to residing in a new community. For those occupants and tenants in the structure on rooftops, they feel they would not able to find another affordable unit to resettle elsewhere as subdivided units and rooftop structures are already in short supply and getting more expensive, and may end up becoming homeless.

4.4.1.2 Problems on local rehousing (I4, H6) At the same time, since many redevelopment projects have launched around Ma To Kok and new Kai Tak development area, many residents will be looking for new accommodation, leading a huge demand on housing, and fueling property prices further upward. In general, resettling in private housing properties in the local district does not seem to be possible for the residents in 13 Streets.

4.4.2 Unaffordable costs of living (C5)

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In addition to unaffordable housing problems, higher costs of living will also become a reality in local area after redevelopment. As the advent of renewal in Kowloon City Area, Shatin–Central Link and new Kai Tak development area, the entire neighbourhood will be upgraded and gentrified making it very difficult for the economically deprived local residents in 13 Streets to catch up on the rising costs of living, ranging from daily groceries to eating out and transport.

4.4.3 Change of economic base

4.4.3.1 Loss of Incomes (H1) Garages and car repairs are not the kind of business normally welcomed in a residential area and they also require floor height, car parks and special sockets for electricity supply. It is anticipated many garages currently operating in the local area will close when redevelopment occurs. The workers may lose their jobs and incomes and can only work elsewhere if these garages are able to find another suitable location to continue operating their business.

4.4.3.2 Disappearance of local economy (C1) Meanwhile, since removal of a huge amount of local business, owners and workers will temporarily lose their incomes during construction period, even if they will resettle locally.

4.4.4 Dramatic Social Changes and Conflicts

4.4.4.1 Difficulties in adapting to new environment (I8) Most elderly residents have been living in their local community for over 30 years and they have their lifestyle in familiar environment. To the sudden change of resettling in a different neighourhood away from their familiar environment will not be easy for them to adapt well. Similarly, ethnic minorities such as Indian and Pakistani have another additional concern: being close to their social networks and place of worship on the Kowloon peninsula. Having to resettle in another area far away from their mosque and friendship network may bring damage their social and religious life.

4.4.4.2 Uncertainty in compensation (H5) Only eligible property owners are entitled to government compensations in development plan, and there are uncertainties whether tenants would receive any compensation at all as it will be decided case by case. In addition, local residents remain skeptical about the amount of compensation would meet their expectations, and most tend not to sell off their properties until the official compensation scheme is

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made clear, causing further delay in property acquisition and fueling conflicts among those who are forced to sell their properties under the “Compulsory Sale” Act.

4.4.5 Disappearance of local culture and community (C4)

Given many local residents have been living in the neighbourhood since the 60s and 70s, 13 Streets has acquired its own community identity and inherited much collective memories. The local character, including many traditional Hongkong-style cafes and barber shops run by old migrants from Shanghai in the early 50s will no doubt have little change to survive. Disappearing too will be the social networks among long-time residents.

4.4.6 Pollutions during the Construction Period (I6)

Demolishment work and piling during the construction period will produce much noise and dusts, affecting the health and environment of the area. Given the current construction works of the Shatin-Central Link is still in progress, the busy traffic during redevelopment will make the local traffic even more congested.

4.4.7 Social Exclusion of Ethnic Minority Community Members(H4)

It is well-known that sizable number of ethnic minority group members are living in the area, in particular Indians and Pakistani. Many of them are unaware of their rights and their specific needs have not be recognized by the government with no special efforts made to communicate with them using their own language and understand their culture barriers.

4.5 Interactive Impacts Matrix and Relevant Impacts Analysis This section analyzes the identified impacts by an Interactive Impacts Matrix and a Relevant Impacts Tree. Appendixes 3 and 4 show the Interactive Impacts Matrix shows all possible matching of interactive impacts and the Relevant Impact Tree illustrate the impacts in different time frame. The significant cross impacts are summarized in table 4.7.

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Table 4.7 Cross Impacts Summary Priority Perspectives Impacts Raised Direct/ Temporary/ Affected Dimensions Indirect Permanent People 1 Psychological X1 – Triggering stress Direct Temporary Tenants in Individual Impacts and anxiety among subdivided affected people unit, elderly, workers in local business 2 Land Demands X2 – Increasing Indirect Temporary All population Community demand of land to restore the community 3 Local Economy X3 - Change of local Direct Permanent Workers and Household economic and owners in employment structure local business 4 Community X4 - New community Direct Permanent All population Community composition will emerge

4.7.1 Triggering Stress and Anxiety among Affected People (X1)

Stress and anxiety will increase among tenants of subdivided units and rooftop structures, elderly and workers in local businesses as they worry about their resettlement following the redevelopment.

4.7.2 Increasing demand of land to restore the original community (X2)

Traditions and community network will be lost following the eviction of garages. The precious and long established relationships among employers, employees and fellow customers for few decades will vanish. Although the government has the intention of relocating the garages, the issue has not been settled due to the concern of the physical environment of the proposed business location.

4.7.3 Changes of Local Economy and Employment Structure (X3)

Local old businesses such as Shanghai-style hair salon and traditional Hongkong-style cafes (冰室) are mostly found in old district due to lower rental rates. After the redevelopment of 13 Streets, gentrification may then occur. It will attract chain stores to set up branches forced out the small businesses in 13 Streets. The

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economic structure will become homogeneous which is tilted to service industry only. Workers in local business in 13 Streets no longer fit in the local economy and may become jobless.

4.7.4 A New community composition will emerge (X4)

13 Streets is currently a community characterized by the presence of working class. Should redevelopment take place in the future, the working class residents will not be able to live in the same neighbourhood when the new buildings constructed will aim at much more affluent upper middle-class. The changing socio-demographic characteristics will mean that the community will be transformed completely, displacing the less privileged — working-class residents.

4.6 Case Study of Affected Groups In the course of conducting our impact assessment, number of local residents is determined to stay. They include an elderly lady, a family of the local ethnic community, workers working in garage and local business, residents in subdivided units or rooftop structures and tenants as well as property owners. The follows are their stories and voices.

4.6.1 Case 1: An Indian Family

Mr. Benhanda is an Indian around 66 years old. He has settled in Hong Kong for 22 years. He has been living in 13 Streets since 1996 when he closed his business. He is living with his wife and their two sons. Benhanda now works as a security guard in a building in Jordon, earning around HKD 10,000 per month. His family members and relatives are Sikhs. Their social network is located at Sikh temple in Yau Ma Tei. With regard to the redevelopment of 13 Streets, Benhenda shows worry about the possible loss of income. As he may not be able to continue his current job if his family has to move away from Yau Tsim Mong District. Local rehousing is his main concern for redevelopment despite having affirmative opinion towards redevelopment due to the poor living environment.

4.6.2 Case 2: Owners of Garage Business on Lun Cheong Street

Mr. Leung and Mr. Sun are in partnership to operate a garage in 13 Streets. They opened up their garage in 13 Streets over 10 years ago when a redevelopment project took place in the previous location of their garage. They are self-employed. They have built their customer network over the years. Unlike many workers in 13 Streets who are older, they are under 40 years old and trained as registered skilled technicians in car

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repairs and maintenance from an official car repair training institute.

Photo 4.1 Mr. Leung is one of the owners of a garage in 13 Streets. They relocated their garage to 13 Streets because of the cheap rental (around HKD 15 per square feet). The atypical high floor height (3 to 4 metres) allows car parking which is essential for their industry. They also find 13 Streets a favourable location for their business as they still find their old equipment and machinery serviceable as 13 Streets is one of the few areas in the territory still serviced by 15V AC power, while most parts of Hong Kong are running at 13V. As they said, around one third of garage workers in 13 Streets are of older generation, who receives training by apprenticeship which is not well-recognized today, so they may make use of the redevelopment as an opportunity to retire and close down their businesses. Relocation of garage is a major concern of them. They admitted that relocation would be better in Kowloon district, even Tseung Kwan O, and expected the location next to their garage is better allowed for car parking, however their equipment will have to be replaced for running in a lower voltage, which they may find costly.

4.6.3 Case 3: Tenants of Subdivided unit in Ying Yeung Street

Mrs. Lau has been living in 13 Streets with her husband and two children for five years. Her family rents a 200-square-feet subdivided unit of a rent at HKD 2,800 per month. Her children are going to school in To Kwa Wan. Her family lived in Sham Shui Po prior moving to 13 Streets. They were evicted from their original community because of a redevelopment project, and moved to their current home in a subdivided unit. She has applied for public housing and on the long queue of housing unit allocation. She cannot afford and does not want to rent a flat with higher rental in other locations. She expected that the government would help her family allocating in public housing as soon as possible.

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4.6.4 Case 4: Property Owners in Lun Cheong Street

Mr. Tong (Old Tong) is an 86-year-old owner of a flat in Lun Cheong Street. He has been living there for around 60 years. His son (Young Tong), 51, has been living in 13 Streets since he was born. Old Tong was retired for the position of an accountant in a traditional factory. Young Tong is a postman in Sheung Wan Post Office with around HKD 10,000 to 20,000 incomes per month. Tong’s family is relying on Young Tong’s income for livelihood. Their social mobility is constrained by their low education level, they are not eager to move their home unless there is a redevelopment. They do concern about compensation levels, and they have particular interests on the “Flat-for-Flat” pilot scheme. More importantly, however, they wish to be relocated locally in To Kwa Wan because of the lower prices of commodities there.

4.6.5 Case 5: Older People in 13 Streets

Ms. Ng (鑽姐), 83 years old, has been living in a tenement in Fung Yi Street for 53 years. She is living alone in unit on sixth floor. The building she lives in is dilapidated. As neither Owner Incorporate is formed nor any single owner is willing to take the responsibility to manage the public area, there is a lack of building management: even the Power Company has difficulty in collecting electricity bills from the tenants. The poor management has also led to poor sanitation and public order. To her Photo 4.2 Ms. Ng (鑽姐) is an old impression, robberies are not uncommon. lady living alone in 13 Streets. She opined that a redevelopment should be done as soon as possible, however she is worried about the compensation might not enough for her to purchase a similar unit in the same district.

4.6.6 Case 6: Property Owners on Fung Yi Street

Ms. Cheung works as a clerk and she owns a flat in Fung Yi Street. She has written a letter to the research team to express her anger and comments on redevelopment. As mentioned in her letter, she witnessed the death of an old man caused by heart attack when he climbed up the stairs to his home on upper floors as there are no lifts in the buildings. She expressed anger and annoyance that there has

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been on and off discussions on the redevelopment issue yet no action has even been taken. She complained that the rehabilitation scheme for such old buildings was useless and is a way the government used as a camouflage to cover the deteriorating building conditions. She opined that only redevelopment can resolve the safety issue and help the elderly. However, she admitted that complicated ownership has hindered the acquisition of property and hence delayed the redevelopment.

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5. Scenario Generations

5.1 Scenario 1- 13 Streets with no plan for redevelopment Based on the information from Community Profile and Delphi Survey, the area is projected to have minimal changes with further degradation of environment until the opening of Shatin-Central Link (SCL) and completion of Kai Tak Development in around 2020. Projections are as follows:

- Socio-demographic of local population: the population is continue to age before 2020 with gradual incidents of domestic accidents happen to elderly, especially those living alone and isolated in upper floors in tenements without lifts. Daily access in and out of their flats will become more difficult and health problems may follow. After the opening of SCL people of other age groups may move in due to its relatively cheap rents and better transport network.

- Building conditions: The building conditions will continue to worsen and become beyond repairs. It will also cause concern on public safety. The proliferation of subdivided units will make the living conditions more dangerous.

- Economic base: projected to have minimal changes until the opening of SCL. Gradual gentrification to 13 Streets will accompany a gradual increase of rents suffocating the local business such as garages.

- Others: crime rate is projected to increase after the opening of SCL as there are higher stream of people frequenting the poorly-managed buildings. Along with the worsening building conditions, 13 Streets will be incompatible in terms of land use with the adjacent Kai Tak Development Area as well as appearance if no major rehabilitation programme is implemented.

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5.2 Scenario 2- 13 Streets with redevelopment under URA mode11 Based on the information from Community Profile, Delphi Survey and Community Survey, the area is projected to have sharp changes as the community is being evicted, causing series of problems induced by removal. The process could be complicated by conflicts between URA and proprietors including tenants and local business around compensation level and arrangement on local rehousing. Ethnic community with special community network tends to be destroyed should local rehousing is not available. Economic base is likely to witness an imposed gentrification after completion of project where local business and tenants cannot return due to high rents and property prices, the trend will be more evident after the completion of SCL and Kai Tak Development.

- Socio-demographic of local population: the gradual eviction of residents will lead to a decrease of population. After redevelopment the original working class residents are unlikely to return due to imposed gentrification. Instead, people of younger ages and of higher income who can afford higher living expenses will move in, completely changing the demography of 13 Streets.

- Effects on original population: residents, including rooftop structures tenants, ethnic minorities, local business such as garages will face eviction and rehousing/relocation problems. They are forced to relocate to adjacent communities, if not other districts, and expected to face challenges in adaptation, especially elderly.

- Economic base: local business will be wiped out and has to reestablish in another locations. They may not be able to relocate to the original location after redevelopment. Some may choose to end their businesses. The future economy will incline to higher-end industries after gentrification. Living expenses will increase too.

5.3 Summary

Should there be no redevelopment in the near future, 13 Streets, will witness an increasingly aging population, rising risk of building collapse, soaring property rents, and a gradual gentrification featured by loss of local business and working class lifestyle largely contributed by the adjacent Kai Tak Development and Shatin-Central Link. In the long run, the local characteristics, lifestyle and economy will still be at risk.

11 URA initiating a redevelopment project on its own under the Urban Renewal Authority Ordinance. URA acquires property interests through negotiations and submitting applications for land resumption.

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In addition to that, the old neighbourhood will face issues of incompatibility of land uses and appearance, rising concern of public safety and public order. There is a pressing need to redevelop 13 Streets.

It is projected that should the URA put the redevelopment plan forward, the initial eviction process would mean a huge disruption for residents and business in 13 Streets, in particular working class people, ethnic minorities, tenants of subdivided units and rooftop structures, elderly and garages. Their well-being will be adversely affected at the beginning with a prospect to improve in the future after redevelopment if appropriate mitigation measures are put in place to avoid loss of any party. It has also been noted from Delphi Survey and Community Survey that there is a consensus among the community to put in a place a redevelopment plan to 13 Streets, given that appropriate relocation policies are made to the affected community.

A summary of measure of well-being is illustrated in Figure 5.1 below.

Figure 5.1 Comparison of total well-being as a whole between development and no action alternative

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6. Evaluation of Well-beings

In order to accurately assess the impacts along the timeline to operationalize mitigation actions in the next step, the relevant impacts as stated in the Impact Summary were analyzed under different scenarios by two dimensions: (1) Evaluative categories: Individual impacts, Household Impacts and Community Impacts; and (2) Timeframe: Present condition, Planning Stage (1-2 years from the present condition) when redevelopment decision is made, Construction Stage (3-5 years), Completion Stage (5-9 years) and Long Term (10-15 years). Table 6.1 and 6.2 shows evaluation of well-beings for two scenarios.

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Table 6.1 Scenario 1- 13 Streets with no plan for redevelopment Present Condition 1-2 years from now 3-5 years from now 5-9 years from now 10-15 years from now [Opening of SCL] Individual 1. Affordable housing for -Ditto- Continued ageing Dilapidated buildings beyond the state of repairs impact working class important to population will cause cause public safety concern their survival safety and health 2. Sub-standard living concerns for elderly environment affecting the quality of life and health

Household 1. Local small business -Ditto- Opening of SCL will, SCL initiates Increased rents and impact provides necessities and increases rent and put gentrification, pushing worsening living conditions income to working class household's livelihood living expenses up, poses pressure to working families in difficult situation working class facing class community 2. Family-based business financial pressure support family income 3. Ethnic Minority families enjoys a mutual support network

Community 1. Dominated by working class -Ditto- Opening of SCL will Crime rates increase Gentrification permanently impact community. start to change the and local business changes socio-economic 2. Characterized by the socio-economic gradually vanish landscape presence and vibrancy of landscape garage industry

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Table 6.2 Scenario 2- 13 Streets with redevelopment under URA mode Present Condition Planning Stage Construction Stage Completion Stage Long Term (1-2 years) (3-5 years) (5-10 years) (10-15 years) Individual 1. Affordable X1- Gradual increase of X1- Continual increase of stress and X1- Stress may gradually --- impact housing for working stress and anxiety among anxiety among affected persons as resolve as the affected class important to affected persons they face physical loss of original persons begin to adapt to their survival community the new environment and 2. Sub-standard reestablish themselves living environment affecting the quality I3- Evicted tenants of I3, I4 & I9 Tenants of subdivided I3, I4 & I9 As imposed gentrification takes place in and of life and health subdivided units find units and rooftop structures find around 13 Streets, the tenants will continue to face rehousing problem as they unstable accommodation in the rehousing problem as rents increase cannot afford new rents district and heavier burden out of I4- Tenants of rooftop higher rents structures face rehousing problem as they cannot afford new rents I8- Elderly being evicted will I8- Elderly being evicted may find I8- Elderly being evicted I8- Elderly being evicted feel unease on the new adaptation problems may continue to find may continue to find environment adaptation problems adaptation problems

--- I6 - Noise and air pollution borne ------by heavier traffic and construction affecting the immediate community around 13 Streets

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Household 1. Local small H6- Property owners and H6- Some may still face rehousing H6 - For those who wish --- impact business provides tenants start to face problem if compensations are not to relocate to the original necessities and rehousing problem enough community will face income to working difficulty in finding class families affordable housing as 2. Family-based gentrification occurs. business support H9 – As housing demand starts to increase, property prices around ------family income 13 Streets will increase as well 3. Ethnic Minority H1—Local business start to H1– Local business completely H1– Local business with H1- Local business with families enjoys a die down as residents move evicted. Some establish themselves characteristics unlikely to characteristics vanish and the mutual support out, or being evicted by in another community with be welcome to relocate to economic base of the network landlord hardships. Some may close down the original community, community permanently

affecting family income and they will face higher changed rents. X3—Local economic and employment structure permanently changed affecting the livelihood of workers and owners in local business, especially garage industry

H5—Conflicts triggered by ------compensation level start to emerge. May defer the commencement of construction stage. H4—Due to the lack of H4—Ethnic Minority families evicted and dissolving their community network. Daily routine community service available such as religious activities are disrupted. and language barrier, Ethnic Minority families will be

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largely unaware of their rights in resettlement

Community 1. Dominated by ------C5—Gentrification causing a permanent change of economic base, impact working class increase of rent and consumption price and radiates to adjacent community. communities 2. Characterized by --- X2—Increasing demand of land outside 13 Streets for --- the presence and resettlement affecting adjacent community vibrancy of garage --- industry --- C1—Local characteristics featured by garages will vanish X4—Residents from external community permanently changed the community landscape C4---Original community will be wiped out and social network destroyed permanently C2 Crime rates increases Legend: Priority of impacts Dark red (1) Red (2) Orange (3) Blue (4) Light Blue (5) Green (6) Olive Green (7)

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7. Mitigation

Individual impacts Objectives of mitigation measures

- The government should accord priority in handling the rehousing problem faced by vulnerable groups such as property owners, tenants of subdivided units and rooftop structures

- The government should take extra care and accord priority in relocating elderly with a view of restoring their previous community network in another location such as public housing, or arrange locally rehousing.

- The government should take mitigation measures to minimize pollution during reconstruction Operationalized mitigation measures

- Flat-to-flat scheme for owners - Relocate elderly to public housing in batches taking into account of their original social network, and provide choice for them to locally rehousing after completion of redevelopment

- Provide adequate amount of compassionate rental allowance for tenants for maintenance of the same living standard, and provide choice for them to locally rehousing after completion of redevelopment

- Set up a social worker team to approach affected persons and understand their specific requirements in rehousing with a special focus on elderly.

- Ascertain appropriate environmental measures are taken to minimize disturbance to the surrounding community, such as setting up sound blanket to minimize noise pollution.

Household impacts Objectives of mitigation measures

- The Authority should provide subsidy and support to working class families during redevelopment to compensate for the rent increases

- The Authority should commit extra funding to speed up acquisition - The Authority should provide subsidy and support to local business to withstand higher rents and provide assistance in relocation

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- The Authority should provide alternative location for garage industry to operate with similar level of rents and location agreeable to the industry

- The Authority should provide community support to EM to enhance their awareness of their rights. Relocation could also take into account of their cultural, community and religious needs Operationalized mitigation measures

- The Authority should provide adequate compensation to ensure occupants can make use of the money to seek a flat/shop of similar size and standard in the district

- The Authority should provide additional subsidy to help smooth their relocation process and withstand the higher rents thereafter

- Set up a dedicated social worker team to act as a bridge of communication between EM and the Authority to gain mutual understanding of each other's' needs

- To identify dedicated location acceptable to the garage industry for them to operate during and after redevelopment.

Community impact Objectives of mitigation measures

- To mandatorily require the future redevelopment to reserve spaces to relocate the original community with acceptable rents and prices especially the garage industry

- To minimize the harm done on garage industry

Operationalized mitigation measures

- To restrict and dedicate part of flats and shops in the redevelopment to receive original community including vulnerable groups and local business

- To exercise rent control with a view to preserve the landscape of the original community

- Relocate garage industry in renewed factories in proximity during redevelopment before a dedicated location to relocate the industry is made ready.

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8. Recommendation

This research attempts to find out the most possible impacts on redevelopment of 13 Streets by various measures. Redevelopment will give rise to numerous impacts to 13 Streets, including problems on housing and relocation, rising living standard, dramatic social changes and conflicts, loss of community and local culture, pollutions and so on. Most importantly, by comparing the scenarios between redevelopment and the no action alternative, most impacts from redevelopment focus on the problems of relocation and livelihoods, and these impacts are able to be mitigated. However, it is noted that the no action alternative for redevelopment cannot resolve the following issues:

1. Building safety Those buildings in 13 Streets are over 50 years and dilapidated. It is very critical to consider the risk of building collapse as remembered that a tragedy of building collapse occurred in Ma Tau Wan in 2010. Problems of water leak and no elevator do make a lot of trouble for residents, which cannot be solved in rehabilitation scheme. In particular, elderly residents are directly facing obstacle to go out owing to no elevator, and difficult to move out as they have no sustainable income for removal.

2. Inevitable rise of living standard In views of baseline condition, new development area of Kai Tak and Shatin-Central Link will lift the living standard in the surrounding communities. Gentrification will occur in the whole Kowloon City area regardless of whether there will be redevelopment or not in 13 Streets.

In light of the principle of Pareto Optimality, it is believed that redevelopment is a better option than the no action alternative by weighting the two options. The redevelopment option will cause impacts yet they can be mitigated with proper measures so that no individual will be worse off. However the no-action alternative will produce resolved consequences that adversely affect well-being of the community Though redevelopment can immediately resolve the risk of building collapse and might improve residents’ living standard, the rise of living standard seems to be inevitable regardless of redevelopment or not. However, it is considered that redevelopment at least opens a window for those residents who hope move out in a hope to improve their living environment, which they could not do so in current situation.

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Therefore it is recommended that redevelopment should be undertaken by the following strategies:

- Prior to handle the rehousing problem faced by vulnerable groups such as property owners, tenants of subdivided units and rooftop structures.

- Take extra care and accord priority in relocating elderly with a view of restoring their social network in another location such as public housing, or arrange locally rehousing.

- Offer different kinds of compensation scheme, such as monetary, “Flat-to-Flat” scheme and rental allowances to take care the needs of affected people; In addition, compassionate scheme should cover vulnerable groups.

- Set up an effective bridge in communicating with the residents, especially elderly and ethnic minorities, to reduce impacts on their daily life.

- Make use of renewed factories nearby Kowloon Peninsula to relocate garage industry.

- Consider the possibility of resettlement on the redeveloped area in order to mitigate the impacts on locally rehousing and restore parts of the previous community, and fulfill the planning intention of CDA on this area.

- During the process of SIA, some opinions posed that redevelopment by phases could reduce the impacts on losing incomes and housing demand occurring in those workers and residents in 13 Streets. However, redevelopment by phases could cause extra underlying impacts that may create new impacts and affect some other group, therefore the feasibilities and potential residual impacts should be investigated. Another SIA for redevelopment by phases is necessary to conduct before taking this action.

--- End of full report ---

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References

Database of Private Buildings in Hong Kong. 2008. HKSAR Home Affairs Department. http://www.buildingmgt.gov.hk/en/database_of_private_buildings_in_hong_ko ng/12.htm Linstone, H., Turaff, M. 2002. The Delphi Method, Techniques and Applications. Vanclay, F. 2003. International Principles for Social Impact Assessment, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 21(1): 5-11. Unit for Community Building. 2009. Historical cum Social Study on Kowloon City district in connection with Kai Tak area. 建築文化遺產研究中心，2010。九龍城區『地區為本』《市區更新地區願景研究》。 (Centre for Architectural Heritage Research. 2010. District Aspiration Study on Urban Renewal in Kowloon City District.)

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Acknowledgement

To successfully publish this SIA report, the research team hereby would like to show our deep gratifications to the following organizations and consultants:

Organizations: Caritas Community Centre – Kowloon, Caritas 13 Streets Concern Group, Sub-divided Flat Concern Group

Consultants: Mr. Bill Lay, Yan Piau (Caritas Community Centre – Kowloon), Mr. Ng Po Keung (Kowloon City District Councilor), Mr. Pun Kwok Wah (Kowloon City Distict Councilor), Hon. Starry Lee, Wai King, JP (Legislative Councilor), Hon. Claudia Mo (Legislative Councilor), Dr. Frederick Lee, Y.S. (Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, HKU), Dr. Vincent Law, Tin Sing (Lecturer, PolyU SPEED), Dr. Cheung Kai Chee (Principal Lecturer, PolyU SPEED), Mr. Anchor Tse, Lap Wa (Maintenance Surveyor), Mr. Cheung Kwok Pan (Architect), Mr. Chan Kim Ching (Local Research Community), Mr. Paul Zimmerman (CEO of local think tank and district councilor), and; also three consultants from Fire Department, Police Force and property agency.

Thank you for the aforementioned organizations and consultants in helping this SIA by their solid expertise knowledge and valuable advises.

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Appendix 1 Questionnaire for the final round Delphi survey Department of Applied Social Sciences 應用社會科學系 Master of Arts in Social Policy and Social Development 社會政策及社會發展碩士

APSS 5206 Social Impact Assessment 社會影響評估

2nd Semester 2013

Questionnaire of Ma Tau Kok “13 Streets” Redevelopment Project 馬頭角「十三街」重建項目問卷調查

The Third-round Delphi questionnaire 第三輪 Delphi 問卷 This is the last round questionnaire of Delphi for the “13 Streets”. The followings are the most significant impacts and solutions which have been evaluated in the second round. At present, we would like to invite you to assess their priorities among those impacts and solutions. Please kindly complete and return it by or before 28th March. Thank you very much for your positive participation and valuable opinions. 這是最後一輪關於「十三街」的「Delphi」問卷。以下的部份是在第二輪問卷調查中被評估為最重要的影響和解決方法。現在，我們再次邀 請 閣下就他們的優先次序作出評估。煩請 閣下務必於3月28日 (四) 下午5時前或之前完成及交回問卷，非常感謝 閣下的積極參與及寶貴 意見。

Name 姓名 :

Date 日期 :

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Part 1 - Positive Impacts 第一部分 - 正面影響 Instruction 指示 Please prioritise the following positive impacts. If completing the survey electronically, please choose appropriate digits to fill in the boxes. 請 閣下就正面影響的優先次序排序。如選擇以此文檔作答，請將適當之數字填入空格中便可。

Notes 附註: Priority 優先次序: 1 = Highest 最高 2 = Relatively high 較高 3 = Medium 中等 4 = Relatively low 較低 5 = Lowest 最低

*Every priority digit 1 to 5 can only appear once in each part *每個排序數字 1至 5在此部份只能出現一次

Priority 優先次序 Positive Impacts 正面影響 (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) Improving the living environment and living standard of the residents, including - arresting dilapidation and blight of building blocks, - reducing financial burden on repairs, - eradicating unpleasant or unauthorized building works such as rooftop houses and subdivided flats, - improving hygiene, fire safety and security, - providing compensation for affected residents especially the elders to seek a better living environment. 改善居民的生活環境及生活質素，包括: - 制止樓宇狀況繼續惡化 - 減低維修樓宇而造成的財政負擔 - 解決非法僭建物問題(如劏房及天台屋問題) - 改善衞生、防火安全及治安 - 受影響居民獲得賠償，尤其是老人家得以立即改善生活環境 。

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Redevelopment brings a new appearance and hence modernization and revitalization. 舊區得以重新規劃，而且外觀全面更新，為該區帶來現代化及活力。

A better land use planning is made possible, so as to increase - land supply in urban area; - development density; - supply of residential units; and, - business value. 土地得以重新規劃， 繼而： - 增加市區用地； - 提高發展密度； - 增加住宅供應；及 - 增加商業價值。

The redevelopment itself, together with the combined effect of the future extension of Shatin-Central Link to the area, will pull up the land prices of the area and hence promote redevelopment of the adjacent communities. 連同未來沙中綫建成後拉高鄰近地段價值，帶動鄰近舊區重建。

Providing an opportunity for a more holistic and long-term town planning, such as reserving lands for community facilities, greening, or transportation hub/facilities in relation to the future extension of Shatin-Central Link so as to avert resorting to reclamation/construction of tunnels near the shoreline. 帶來機會改善整體長遠規劃，如增加社區設施、綠化、配合未來沙中線，甚至騰出空間發展交通樞杻，避免在 附近海岸線填海或鋪設／挖掘隧道。

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Part 2 - Negative Impacts 第二部分 - 負面影響 Instruction 指示 Please prioritize the following negative impacts. If completing the survey electronically, please choose appropriate digits to fill in the boxes. 請 閣下就負面影響的優先次序排序。如選擇以此文檔作答，請將適當之數字填入空格中便可。

Notes 附註: Priority 優先次序: 1 = Highest 最高 2 = Relatively high 較高 3 = Medium 中等 4 = Relatively low 較低 5 = Lowest 最低

*Every priority digit 1 to 5 can only appear once in each part *每個排序數字 1至 5在此部份只能出現一次

Priority 優先次序 Negative Impacts 負面影響 (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) Original community and public space with its own characteristics will be wiped out and its community fabric and network will be destroyed. 原來的特色社區、公共空間和居民之間的網絡會受到破壞。

Local economy is uprooted and small businesses such as garages will vanish. 地區經濟會被連根拔起，當中小本經營的生意如車房等會消失。

Tenants of subdivided flats and rooftop houses lose a cheap accommodation. They may have difficulties in seeking alternative housing with similar costs; there are not sufficient public housing units to accommodate all of the affected residents.

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劏房及天台屋租戶喪失廉宜的住所，亦難於同區再找回相近價格的住所；失去住所後，他們亦未能全 部被遷置於公共房屋。

Gentrification of the community may occur after the redevelopment; there may also be rising rent and consumer price in and around the redeveloped community. 重建後的社區可能會士紳化；鄰近地區的租金和消費亦會推高。

Noise and air pollution, and increased traffic are unavoidable during the redevelopment, and huge amount of construction & demolition waste will be produced. 重建期間無可避免地製造噪音，空氣污染；而重建後會製造大量垃圾。

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Part 3 - Enhancement of Positive Impacts 第三部分 - 提升正面影響的方法 Instruction 指示 Please prioritize the following enhancement of positive impacts. If completing the survey electronically, please choose appropriate digits to fill in the boxes. 請 閣下就提升正面影響的方法的優先次序排序。如選擇以此文檔作答，請將適當之數字填入空格中便可。

Notes 附註: Priority 優先次序: 1 = Highest 最高 2 = High 高 3 = Relatively high 較高 4 = Medium 中等 5 = Relatively low 較低 6 = Low 低 7 = Lowest 最低

*Every priority digit 1 to 7 can only appear once in each part *每個排序數字 1至 7在此部份只能出現一次

Enhancement of Positive Impacts Priority 優先次序 提升正面影響的方法 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7) More promotion and education on the positive impacts to the public. 對公眾就正面影響多作宣傳和教育。

Facilitating comprehensive town planning (e.g. locating shopping mall, social facilities, transportation, theaters and green area). 促進全面的城市規劃(如：設置商場、社區設施、交通配套、劇場及綠化地帶)。

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Conducting Potential Risks Assessment. 展開潛在危險評估。

Implementing urban renewal. 推行巿區重建。

Introducing the concept of sustainable development to the redevelopment. 引進可持續發展的概念。

Quantifying all positive impacts. 量化所有正面影響。

Inviting community planners into the planning process. 邀請社區規劃人員參予規劃過程。

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Part 4 - Solution of Negative Impacts 第四部分 - 解決負面影響的方法 Instruction 指示 Please prioritize the following solution of negative impacts. If completing the survey electronically, please choose appropriate digits to fill in the boxes. 請 閣下就解決負面影響的方法的優先次序排序。如選擇以此文檔作答，請將適當之數字填入空格中便可。

Notes 附註: Priority 優先次序: 1 = Highest 最高 2 = Relatively high 較高 3 = Medium 中等 4 = Relatively low 較低 5 = Low 低 6 = Lowest 最低

*Every priority digit 1 to 6 can only appear once in each part *每個排序數字 1至 6在此部份只能出現一次

Solution of negative Impacts Priority 優先次序 解決負面影響的方法 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6) Providing affordable housing for locals (e.g. public housing, Interim Housing, rent restriction on neighbour flats). 為當區居民提供相宜的住屋措施(如：公屋、中轉房屋、鄰近地區的租金限制等)。

Conducting a concrete “Cost and Benefit” analysis for redevelopment. 就重建項目展開具體的「成本效益」分析。 Rehousing residents locally. 原區安置居民。

Implementing environment-friendly waste management. 推行環保的廢物管理計劃。

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Restricting Plot Ratio. 限制發展地積率。

Collaborate with Hong Kong Housing Society and Hong Kong Housing Authority. 與香港房屋委員會及香港房屋協會合作。

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Part 5 - Prediction for future development of community without redevelopment project 第五部分 - 無重建計劃下的預期社區發展 Instruction 指示 Please prioritize the following prediction for future development of community without redevelopment project. If completing the survey electronically, please choose appropriate digits to fill in the boxes. 請 閣下就無重建計劃下的預期社區發展的優先次序排序。如選擇以此文檔作答，請將適當之數字填入空格中便可。

Notes 附註: Priority 優先次序: 1 = Highest 最高 2 = Relatively high 較高 3 = Medium 中等 4 = Relatively low 較低 5 = Lowest 最低

*Every priority digit 1 to 5 can only appear once in each part *每個排序數字 1 至 5 在此部份只能出現一次

Prediction for future development of community without redevelopment project Priority 優先次序 無重建計劃下的預期社區發展 (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) Continual decline of living standard and living condition (e.g. hygiene). 生活水平及居住條件持續惡化(如:衞生)。

The problem of aging population will get worse. 人口老化加劇。

Increasing potential risks from illegal or undesirable building structures (e.g. unauthorised building works and flat sub-division and building collapse). 增加樓宇結構潛在的風險(如，非法僭建、劏房及塌樓)。

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Enlarging the differences between the whole development of Kai Tak and 13 streets. 擴大十三街與啟德整體發展的差異。

Partial redevelopment will be conducted. 部份樓宇將重建。

End of the 3rd Round of Questionnaire 第三輪之問卷調查完結 Thank you for your valuable opinions 感謝 閣下之寶貴意見

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Appendix 3 Cross Impacts Table

I3 - Homelessness I4 - Removal and re- I6 - Environmental I8 - Elderly owners I9 - Difficulties for I10 - Rooftop tenants H1 - Local old H4 - No other service H5 - Conflict triggered H6 - Difficulty of housing pollution during the may not easily to adapt grassroots to move to and occupants will face businesses will totally serving the ethnic by compensations locally re-housing construction the new environment elsewhere with low the difficulties of the vanish minorities rent housing

demand more I3 X X X X increase social conflicts X X X compensation

limited choices for + reunify EM, '- affect the plan of re- I4 X increase stress X X X moving out increase racial conflicts housing

I6 X X X X X X X

I8 X X increase stress X X X

demand for low rent demand more I9 X X X housing compensation impossible to locally I10 X X increase conflicts re-housing if no public housing increase difficulties in H1 X X removal

unify EM bargaining break the network of H4 compensation EM

H5 X

H6

H9

C1

C2

C4

C5

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Appendix 3 Cross Impacts Table (Con’t)

H9 - Housing demand C1 - If garages are demolished, the C2 - New kind of C4 - Original community will C5 - Gentrification of community will be increased and community characteristics will be lost crimes will emerge be wiped out; social network rent, consumption price will be property price rises and owners of garages will lose their will also be destroyed rising including surrounding incomes as well. community

new crimes created by creating network of deteriorate disparity between rich I3 X X homelessness homelessness and poor

I4 X X X X X

I6 X X X X X

need to create new social I8 X X X more amenities network

move outside of urban I9 X X X isolate grassroots area

move outside of urban I10 X X X isolate grassroots area

HK traditional culture will be seriously lifestyle and habits will be business structure will become H1 X X destroy change extreme unbalance

worsen their living EM characteristics transfer to the involved trial activities / H4 move out X standard another district gangster

strongly demand flat H5 desire resources for revitalization X X X for flat

ask for new land to restore their H6 X X X X characteristics

community characteristics will be H9 X X X monopolized by big capital

gentrification become community C1 X alleviate the air pollution characteristic

C2 X crime rate will decrease

C4 create new social network

C5

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Appendix 4 Relevant Impact Tree for redevelopment of 13 Streets

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