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JLL Nordic Outlook JLL Nordic Outlook JLL Nordic Outlook Focus: Living Flexible office space Autumn Spring2019 2019 Property Data Definitions Prime Office Rent Prime office rent refers to the optimum open-market rent level that can be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a specific market or submarket on the survey date (normally at the end of each quarterly period). Prime office rent is normally based on prime units of over 500 sq m of lettable floor space and does not include prime rents for smaller floor spaces. Prime rent refers to occupational lease that are standard for the local market. A face rent, on the other hand, does not take the financial impact of tenant incentives into account, and excludes service charges and local taxes. It represents JLL’s view of the market and is calculated on the basis of an analysis/review of actual prime office space transactions, not including any unrepre- sentative deals. Prime Yield Prime yield refers to the optimum (i.e. lowest) “rack-rented” yield that can be expected for a notional office property of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a specific market or submarket on the survey date (normally at the end of each quar- terly period). The property should have been let at the prevailing market rent to a first-class tenant with an occupational lease that is the standard for the local market. The prime initial net yield, i.e. the initial net income at the date of acquisition, is quoted as a percent- age of the total acquisition price, which includes acquisition costs and transfer taxes. Prime yield represents Jones Lang LaSalle’s view of the market and is based on a combination of market evi- dence, where available, and a survey of expert opinion. Vacancy Vacancy refers to the complete floor space offered for lease on the open market within a specific market or submarket and available for immediate occupancy on the survey date (normally at the end of each quarterly period). It includes all vacant accommodation and sublet space irrespective of quality or the terms under which the space is offered. Vacancy excludes obsolete or “mothballed” office property, i.e. floor space kept vacant and unavailable for letting, usually pending redevelopment or major refurbishment. Content Definitions ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Global macroeconomic conditions ............................................................................................................................................6 Offices Office Rents in Europe 2019-2023 ...........................................................................................................................................8 Stockholm ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Gothenburg .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Malmö ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................14 Helsinki ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Oslo ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Copenhagen..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................20 Focus: Living ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Retail Sweden ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................24 Finland .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Logistics Sweden ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Finland .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30 Investment Market Sweden .........................................................................................................................................................................32 Investment Market Finland ...........................................................................................................................................................................34 Interest and Credit Markets ..........................................................................................................................................................................36 JLL Services ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................38 Nordic Outlook | Autumn 2019 3 Nordic property market set for solid 2019 Despite a global slowdown in economic growth and persistent political uncertainty, the Nordic real estate markets continue to benefit from a strong business cycle and low interest rates. High demand and restricted supply of modern offices in attractive locations are pushing vacancy rates downward while driving a continued rental growth in the Nordic capitals. On the investment side, transaction activity is still high and sentiment positive, with a preliminary volume of around €11 billion for H1 2019. The market is still driven by investors’ pursuit for stable risk-adjusted returns in light of a low interest rate environment. Interest in property investment remains high from cross-border capital, showing that the Nordic property market is still very liquid and attractive. Structural changes due to digitalisation and an increase in e-commerce demand, among other factors, are increasingly impacting both demand and supply in the retail and logistics segment. In this edition of the JLL Nordic Outlook, we examine the state of the office markets in the four capital Nordic cities and Swedish metropolitan areas. We also report on Swedish and Finnish logistics and retail markets and review developments on investment and capital markets. The theme for this edition of the report is Living. The profile and living preferences of an average European household are shifting, which is changing the patterns of demand inside the European residential markets and creating attractive opportunities for investors and developers across the continent’s urban agglomerations. Cecilia Gunnarsson Head of Research JLL Sweden 4 Nordic Outlook | Autumn 2019 JLL Property Clock H2 2019 Paris CBD Dublin, Helsinki, London City, Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg Prague St Petersburg Copenhagen, Edinburgh, Lisbon, London West End, Lyon, Manchester, Stuttgart Rental Growth Rents Brussels, Dusseldorf Avtagande Fallande Budapest, Rome Slowing Falling hyrestillväxt hyror Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Milan Amsterdam, Barcelona, Luxembourg, Madrid, Munich, Oslo Tilltagande Avtagande Athens Rental Growth Rents hyrestillväxtAccelerating hyresnedgångBottoming Out Kiev, Warsaw Zurich Moscow Bukarest, Geneva, Istanbul Nordic Investment Volumes* Nordic Prime Office Yields bn EUR (%) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 See a Nora ear Sweden Finland Norway Denmark *excl. residential Nordic Outlook | Autumn 2019 5 Global macroeconomic conditions Continued good global economic activity but increasing concern over future developments. Global In Finland economic growth continues to slow, reflecting International GDP
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