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ARCP Final Report Project Reference Number: ARCP2015-13CMY-Zhou Assessment of Climate-Induced Long-term Water Availability in the Ganges Basin and the Impacts on Energy Security in South Asia The following collaborators worked on this project: 1. Dr. Xin Zhou, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, [email protected] 2. Dr. Bijon Kumer Mitra, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, [email protected] 3. Dr. Devesh Sharma, Central University of Rajasthan (CURAJ), India, [email protected] 4. Prof. G.M. Tarekul Islam, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh, [email protected] 5. Dr. Rabin Malla, Center of Research for Environment, Energy and Water (CREEW), Nepal, [email protected] 6. Dr. Diego Silva Herran, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, [email protected] 7. Dr. Brian Johnson, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, [email protected] Insert Insert Insert other other other logo logo logo Copyright © 2015 Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research APN seeks to maximise discoverability and use of its knowledge and information. All publications are made available through its online repository “APN E-Lib” (www.apn-gcr.org/resources/). Unless otherwise indicated, APN publications may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services. Appropriate acknowledgement of APN as the source and copyright holder must be given, while APN’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services must not be implied in any way. For reuse requests: http://www.apn-gcr.org/?p=10807 Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................i Project Overview ...................................................................................................................... ii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 2. Methodology ................................................................................................................. 4 3. Results & Discussion ................................................................................................... 6 4. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 83 5. Future Directions ........................................................................................................ 86 6. References ................................................................................................................. 86 7. Appendices ................................................................................................................ 92 Final Report: ARCP2015-13CMY-Zhou i Project Overview Project Duration : 2 years Funding Awarded : US$ 40,000 for Year 1; US$ 35,000 for Year 2 Key organisations : Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan involved (Dr. Xin Zhou, Dr. Bijon Kumer Mitra, Dr. Brian Johnson, Dr. Diego Silva Herran) Central University of Rajasthan (CURAJ), India (Dr. Devesh Sharma) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh (Professor G.M. Tarekul Islam) Center of Research for Environment, Energy and Water (CREEW), Nepal (Dr. Rabin Malla) Project Summary The Ganges basin provides essential water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and cooling of power generation facilities. Changes in the water availability induced by global climate change will impact on economic development as well as human life in this basin and beyond. Water competition among major consumers will become fiercer in the Ganges basin in the coming decades as the three major South Asian developing countries, Nepal, India and Bangladesh focus more on poverty eradication, industrial development, food security and universal energy access for achieving their long-term social and economic development goals. These factors combined will exacerbate the existing level of water stress that has been experienced in some sub-basins of the Ganges. As one of the largest water consumers, the energy sector will thus face a big challenge in ensuring sufficient water to maintain stable operations of the existing and planned thermal power plants in the future. Quantitative knowledge on the spatial distribution of water supply, water demand, water supply-demand balance and energy water requirement is crucial to energy feasibility planning and effective water resource management. However, few studies on these practical issues can be found in existing literature. This project, entitled “Assessment of Climate-Induced Long-term Water Availability in the Ganges Basin and the Impacts on Energy Security in South Asia”, is funded by the Asian- Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN). The project aims to inform decision makers, relevant stakeholders and energy project investors about future water availability under climate change conditions, as well as water supply-demand balance and water risks for existing and planned power plants from the present to 2050. We developed a novel approach on an integrated assessment of the water-energy nexus by using various modelling techniques (hydrological modelling, water demand projections) together with first-hand data collection from power plant field surveys. Three case studies were conducted for India, Bangladesh and ii Final Report: ARCP2015-13CMY-Zhou Nepal. The case study in India covering four selected sub-basins, namely Chambal, Damodar, Gandak and Yamuna, provides a detailed assessment on future water availability, water demand, water supply-demand balance and the water risks for existing and planned thermal power plants at the sub-basin and district levels. To enable effective communications with the target audience, a free on-line web tool, Water-Energy Nexus Assessment for India, was developed to help explore and visualise the spatial data and the results on maps. Through multi-stakeholder consultations in the kick-off workshops and the final workshops held in the three countries, the objective of this project, the major results and key messages have been effectively communicated with relevant policy makers from the development and planning ministry, energy sector and water supply and management department, etc., as well as academia and other stakeholders (e.g., project investors). This project has contributed to strengthening the science-policy interface in the area of water-energy nexus for the Ganges basin. Keywords: Water-energy nexus, integrated assessment, Ganges basin, water supply and demand balance assessment, water stress for thermal power generation Project outputs and outcomes Project outputs include: - An integrated assessment of the water-energy nexus at the sub-basin level, including water supply assessment, water demand assessment, water supply-demand balance assessment and water stress assessment for future thermal power generation; - A free on-line tool providing spatial visualisation results on water supply, water demand, water supply-demand balance, and water stress for existing and planned thermal power plants at the district level for four selected sub-basins in India (accessible at IGES website https://www.iges.or.jp/en/index.html); - Stakeholder consultation workshops through which the objective, methodology, results and key messages were effectively communicated with relevant stakeholders in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Project outcomes: - Relevant governmental officials, particularly from the national planning organisation and the energy development sector, were for the first time informed about the spatial distribution of the water supply-demand balance at the district level. - Relevant planning officials, energy planners and investors became highly aware of the potential water risks, both current and future, faced by existing and planned thermal power plants located in the water-stressed regions. - Relevant planning officials, energy planners and investors were informed about the potential sites where water surpluses exist for consideration of future new energy projects, particularly thermal power plants. - Relevant energy planners, project developers and investors were informed about the substantial impacts of the selection of proper technologies of power generation and types of cooling system on sustainable water use. Final Report: ARCP2015-13CMY-Zhou iii Key facts/figures - For India, from the supply side, the overall water availability will increase in the future in the four sub-basins, particularly in Chambal, Damodar and Gandak. However, the water availability in Yamuna will decrease in the far future (2071-2100). - Water availability will vary from month to month depending on the physical conditions such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface runoff, etc. The water availability in Damodar and Gandak in both the dry and the wet seasons will increase; however, it will decrease in Chambal and Yamuna in the dry season in the future. At the district level, the water availability in most of the districts in the four sub-basins will increase. - From the demand side in India, future water demand will increase due to population growth, industrial development and the increase in power generation and irrigation. Out of the four sub-basins, Chambal will have the smallest water demand and Yamuna will have
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