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Democracy - a Tree Without Roots on the Steppes of Central Asia

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Democracy - a Tree Without Roots on the Steppes of Central Asia Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2006-12 Democracy - a tree without roots on the steppes of Central Asia Quillen, Brian G. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2376 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS DEMOCRACY – A TREE WITHOUT ROOTS ON THE STEPPES OF CENTRAL ASIA by Brian G. Quillen December 2006 Thesis Advisor: Mikhail Tsypkin Second Reader: Anne Clunan Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2006 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Democracy – A Tree Without Roots on the Steppes of 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Central Asia 6. AUTHOR(S) Brian G. Quillen 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis combines transitology and structural analyses to examine the obstacles to democracy in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The transitology approach analyzes the impact of domestic political factors (clan politics, corruption, and political Islam) and external influences on each country’s transition to post-communist rule. The structural analysis focuses on those economic and societal factors that impact the country’s ability to foster and sustain democratic reforms. For both countries, the complex interplay of clan politics and rampant corruption is the dominant factor in stifling democratic reforms. External influences were important in the case of Kyrgyzstan, though not determining, but were basically inconsequential in Uzbekistan. In each country, economic underdevelopment has stifled the emergence of a large middle class and served as a catalyst for societal dissatisfaction. The United States must continue to assist Kyrgyzstan in completing its economic reform agenda and play a greater role in helping guide amendments to the constitution. In Uzbekistan, the United States must rely on economic reform incentives tied to concrete milestones and look to engage the next generation of leaders with targeted assistance to achieve political and economic reforms. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Democracy, U.S. Policy, Bush 15. NUMBER OF Doctrine, Clan Politics PAGES 107 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DEMOCRACY – A TREE WITHOUT ROOTS ON THE STEPPES OF CENTRAL ASIA Brian G. Quillen Major, United States Air Force B.S., Chemical Engineering, University of Arkansas, 1990 M.S., Chemical Engineering, University of New Mexico, 1996 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2006 Author: Brian G. Quillen Approved by: Mikhail Tsypkin Thesis Co-Advisor Anne Clunan Co-Advisor Douglas A. Porch Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis combines transitology and structural analyses to examine the obstacles to democracy in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The transitology approach analyzes the impact of domestic political factors (clan politics, corruption, and political Islam) and external influences on each country’s transition to post-communist rule. The structural analysis focuses on those economic and societal factors that impact the country’s ability to foster and sustain democratic reforms. For both countries, the complex interplay of clan politics and rampant corruption is the dominant factor in stifling democratic reforms. External influences were important in the case of Kyrgyzstan, though not determining, but were basically inconsequential in Uzbekistan. In terms of structural factors, economic underdevelopment in each country has stifled the emergence of a large middle class and served as a catalyst for societal dissatisfaction. In Uzbekistan, this dissatisfaction is being channeled into clan politics and political Islam because of President Karimov’s repression of political opposition and dissent. In Kyrgyzstan, advanced progress on economic reform and an emergent civil society allow for more outlets for dissent, political dialog and meaningful democratic reforms. The United States must continue to assist Kyrgyzstan in completing its economic reform agenda and possibly play a greater role in helping guide amendments to the constitution. In Uzbekistan, the United States must rely on economic reform incentives tied to concrete milestones and look to engage the next generation of leaders with targeted assistance to achieve political and economic reforms. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND ..............................................................................................1 B. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCH.....................................3 C. THESIS ORGANIZATION............................................................................4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ...........................................................................................7 A. DEFINITION OF DEMOCRACY.................................................................7 B. THEORIES ON THE EMERGENCE OF DEMOCRACY ........................7 C. STRUCTURAL PRECONDITIONS FOR DEMOCRACY APPROACH.....................................................................................................8 D. TRANSITOLOGY APPROACH TO DEMOCRACY.................................9 E. DEMOCRACY THEORY AND CENTRAL ASIA ...................................10 III. KYRGYZSTAN CASE STUDY ...............................................................................13 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................13 B. STATE OF DEMOCRACY..........................................................................13 1. Freedom House Ratings ....................................................................14 2. Polity IV Metrics................................................................................15 3. Bertelsmann Transformation Index.................................................16 C. TRANSITOLOGY APPROACH – THE POLITICAL TRANSITION FROM COMMUNISM .................................................................................17 1. From Communism to Kyrgyzstan’s Version of Democracy..........17 2. External Pressures .............................................................................20 3. Domestic Politics ................................................................................24 a. The Impact of Clan Politics....................................................24 b. The Influence of Corruption ..................................................26 c. The Impact of Islam in Kyrgyzstan Politics ...........................27 4. Summary.............................................................................................29 D. ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL FACTORS ..............................................30 1. Economic Development Factors .......................................................30 2. Societal Attitudes and Civil Society..................................................35 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................37 IV. UZBEKISTAN CASE STUDY .................................................................................41 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................41 B. STATE OF DEMOCRACY..........................................................................42 1. Freedom House Ratings ....................................................................42 2. Polity IV Metrics................................................................................43
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