Mercury Rising Exposing the Vaccine-Autism Myth

MATTHEW .N._O_.A__¥_-A N p a ji_cl J _E S_ S _E D_A_ L L E RY ON JUNE 11, 2007. NEARLY 5,000 PARENTS OF thimerosal and autism; (2) a number of well con- autistic children filed a lawsuit against the federal trolled studies have failed to uncover any correla- government, claiming that childhood vaccines tion between the delivery of the vaccines and the (specifically the mercury-containing thimerosal in oaset of autism; (3) even if some correlation the vaccines) caused their children's autism. The existed there are a number of alternative expla- previous year the New York Times ran a col- nations for the correlation that do not assume umn that was skeptical of the alleged link any causal relationship between the vacxine and between autism and vaccines. It generated autism; (4) much anention has !:)een given to a the following comment on an Internet mes- possible goveniment cover up, which is certainly sage board, typical of the anecdotal analyses of concern if tnje but is otiierwise independent that perpetuate the claim; of the problems witli claims of a link lieriveen thimerosal and autism; and (5) the type of public You say, "There is no pn:i\^en link" between mercury hysteria manifested in the current controversy Ls and autism. There also is "no proven link" between not new and we would l^e well served to leam going outside in the rain and cold without a hat or ftom similar controversies of recent times. coat and getting the sniffles. Look at the data: the epidemic of autism mirrore tfie adminisiration of vacdnes with mercury. Now tfiat they are off the RAercury, Thimerosal, and the Potential for Harm shelves (more or less), the cases are going doun. Sdence lias tokl us uiiequi\ix:ally tliat mercury is bad for our bodies. In sufficient doses, mercury Here we see how the writer dismisses sdentif- kills cells that it contacts, causes neurological ic evidence that fails to support a link Ixjtween damage in humans and other animals, and gen- cold and illness and vacdnes and autistn in favor erally wreaks havoc on living things. Yet since of her personal experiences. And tlie vaccine- tlie 1930s, thimerosal has been used as a preser- autism cxjntroversy is not constrained to a small vative in vacdnes.^ One of the breakdown pRxi- fringe group of parents or advocates. Increasingly, ucts of thimerosal Ls ethylmercury, wMch is an people of position and power are leaping into oi^anic compound of mercury. Public concern the fray, spurred on by vocal groups demanding about thimerosal Ls certainly understandable, but action. For example, an article by Robert F. does this mean that concern about a link Kennedy, Jr. appeared in a June 2005 issue of between vacdnes and autism is justified as well? Rolling Stone magazine^ that alleged thimerosal- In a word, no. Mercury miglit do a number of containing vacdnes were at the heart of the nasty things to the human body, and concern autism epidemic and, moreover, that the govern- about it is therefore justified, but that does nc« ment was aware of this and actively enj^ged in mean it causes autism. a cover-up. Ethylmercury is not tlie same thing as its This article makes five points concerning the cousin, metliylmercury. Cumulative and high relation between thimerosal-containing vacdnes doses of metliylmercury can produce renal and and autism: (1) the dangers of mercury are well neurologic damage. It can build up in the brain established, but tliis does not lead inexorably to and stay in the body for a long time. a relationsliip between vaccines containing Ethylmercury is more, well, mercurial. It is

f VOLUME 13 NUMBER 3 2007 expelled riipidly from the bcxly and it in the U.S., ba.sed on a request from does not accumulate. Nevertheless, guide- tlie Food and Drug Administration lines for the ingestion of ethylmercury (FDA) (it remains in some influenza vac- were based on those for methylmercury. dnes and in some vacdnes outside of Around the same time these guidelines the U.S.). The request was made as a were formalized, children were receiv- preaiLitionary measure, and not ing more vaccines that contained lTecau.se there was evidence to accept thimerosal. For example, in tlie early or rejeci a causal relatioaship hietween 1990s the Haemopliilus influenzae b thimerosal and autism. (Thimerosal is and hepatitis B became staple features still used during manufacture of some of the vaccine schedule for vaccines to ensure sterility, but infants, which already included the trace amounts remaining another thimerosal-ajntaining are 50 times lower than when vaccine (diphtheria tetanus and thimerosal is used as a pre- variants). Based on tlie very conser- servati\'e.) Since the FDA decision, a vative guidelines established by the numlxjr of research reports published Environmental Protection Agency in some of tlie most esteemed peer- (EPA), it was concluded that by age reviewed journals in the world have two some children might be receiv- failed to find any relation Ixftween ing excessive levels of ethylmercury ttiinierosixl and autism. Despite tliese when cx)nsidered in the context of negative findings and the removal known risks of methylmercury expo- of thimerosal from vaccines, par- sure.^ ents, politicians and health profes- sionals remain alarmed that chil- Agaiast this backdrop enter sky- dren are at risk. rocketing rates of autism diagnoses. In California, the Department of Much is at stake in this debate. Developmental Services reported a Based on the assumption that metals 273% increase from 1987 to 1998 in such as mercTjry are causing autism, the number of individuals served some parerus are avoiding vacdna- under the category of autism.** Surely ti(5ns altogetlier. Otliers have sought tliis increase in rates was caused by treatments like chelation tlierapy, an environmental source, right'' In which uses spedal chemicals to rid 2001, the Instimte of Medicine (IOM) tlie Ixxiy of heavy metals following Immunization Safety Review acute poisoning. However, chelation Committee held a public meeting to is not a risk-free procedure and address the link between one envi- should not be undertiiken lightly. In ronnient:il source—thimerasal—^and August of 2005, a Pittsbuigh, PA area autism. At tlie meeting, Mark Blaxill, a newspaper reported that a 5-year old board member of a nonprofit organi- boy with autism died following zation dedicated to investigating the chelation therapy. Finally, there are risks of mercury exposure, presented a ongoing class action lawsuits again^ graph showing the estimated cumula- the manufacturei^ of vacdnes. These tive dose of thimerosal to the estimated lawsuits could potentially endanger the prevalence of autism in California.^ The production and distribution of effective vac- increasing trend lines during the early 1990s dnes according to well-established prato- were right on top of each other, about as cols, putting scores of yoLing cMdren at risk. dose as you can get to perfect correlation in ecological data, Such oRierly correlations are Evidence of Harm all that it takes to convince the uncritical Let's begin with the hyjxjthesis that eye. thimerasal is one of the causes of autism Even before the IOM meeting, thimerosal and that it is the main culprit in the was removed as a preservative in vaccines increased incidence of autism during the 1990s. This is a plausible hypothesis, but as Karl healtli-care professional, p)arent, or even some- Popper taught tjs, a good sdentific hypothesis one tr>'ing to prove a point "^ can enter data into mast be falsifiable. That is, it must be possible to the VAERS. There is no way to verify diagnases, conceive of evidence that would prove it v.Tong. identify mistakes in filing, or sul^stantiate causal What evidence might suggest that tiie thimerosal h>potlieses. hypotliesls is false? For obvious ethical reasons, The inseparably flawed studies by the Geiers we can't perform the kind of gold-standard prompted a strong relxike from the Centers for experiment—^a randomized double-blind study— Disease Control (CDC) and by tlie American which would most con\'incingly indicate the lack Academy of Pediatrics." Simply put, the VAERS of a causal relation. We must rely on natural data may be useHil to raise some potential ques- experiments. One such experiment was occa- tioas about a phenomenon, but it certainly cannot sioned by the removal of thimerasal in Denmark be used to prove a hypothesis. Studies tliat use in 1992. If the thimerosal hypothesis were false, methods ajnsistent with well-established sdentific we would not expea to see dianges in the rates standards have failed to find any association of autism following tlie removal of tfiimerosal. In between tliinierasal and autism. In 2004, tlie fact, the results were more robust: despite the Institute of Medicine conduded, "Given the lack removal of thimerasal, the rates of autism contin- of direct evidence for a biological mechanism and ued to climb. And not only in Denmark but in Sweden, too, where thimerosal was removed at the faa that al! well-designed epidemiologjcal about the same time.^ studies provide evidence of no association between thimertsal and autism, the committee Another way the thimerosal hypothesis could tecommencLs that cost-benefit assessments regard- \je falsified Is if it could be shown that tliere is ing the use of thimerosal-a^ntaining veisus no link between the amount of thimerosal expo- tliimerosal-free vacdnes and odier biological or sure and the likelihood of autism. That is, we l^hiirmaceutical products, whetlier in the United would ask if tliere is a dose-response relation States or other countries, should not include between thimerosal exposure and developmental autism as a potential rlsk,"'^ problems. Several studies liave confirmed that But what if it were determined that a strong there is no convincing evidence of a dose- correlation existed between the administration of response relation.^ In faa, one study suggested a tliimerosal-containing vaccines and the oaset of beneficial effect of thimerosal! For example, autism? Much would still be left unanswered. exposure at tliree montfis was inversely related Consider that the average age for many vaccina- to problems of hyperactivit>', conduct, and motor tions is between 12 and 18 months. Now consid- development months or years later.** Now, these er that many of the "symptoms" of autism—such results do not imply causation, nor do they per- tain to autism per se, but they do question the as social withdrawal and delayed language— general \^dity of the thimerosal hypotliesis. aren't readily detectable until this same age or just a bit later. It could very well be tliat any rela- So what of the data favoring the thimerosal tionship l^tween vacdnatic^n and diagnosis is hypothesis? Indeed, we must consider all sources purely coinddental. If these vacdnations were of evidence in evaluating tlie tnith of a claim— not commonly given until age four, perhaps no we must be comprehensive. Recently, some correlation would be observed. Not to mention researchers have soiggested that the inddence that the vast majority of children receive these rate of autism has been on the decline since vaccinatioas without inddent.'-^ thimerosal was officially removed from vaccines The bottom line is that correlation is not in the US. If true, this would be evidence of a causation. passible cau.sal relatioaship between thimerosal and autism, and such data has \~>een reportedb y Autism Epidemic or Statistical Artifact? one tedm of researchers, Mark and David Geier. Another problem for the purported vacdne- Unfortunately, the study that proposed such a autism link is that there is good reason to be relatioaship used the Vacdne Adverse Event suspicious of claims of an autism epidemic. A Reporting System (VAERS) database to make the number of faaors can account for the dramatic claim.^ The VAERS is a passive reporting system increase in numliers, including die expansion of that is subjea to reporting biases and errors. A diagnostic criteria in 1994, and changes in criteria

f VOLUME 13 NUMBER 3 2007 for inclusion in child-count data for children with Verstraeten who, according to the vaccine oppo- autism. Remember that 273% increase over a nents, presented data .supporting the autism-vac- decade in autism spectrum disorders in cine link but later altered the data to support the California? dbnsider, as did the authors of a opposite ajnclusion because he was, by tlien, recent paper pubiished in Ciorent Directions in employed by a large pharmaceutical company. Psychological Scietice^'^ that this increase could Verstraeten has denied such manipulation and be due to an expanded diagnostic definition of the data he reports support tlie condusions autism. Tlie autliors found that a similar expan- reached by a number of (jther independent sion in the definition of "tall"—fix)m 74.5 inches researcliers.i'' The problem is that the only evi- to 72 inches—generated a 273% increase if these dence of doctored data sets, dubious activity at two criteria were applied a decade apart in one the Simpsonwood meeting, and assorted cover- cx)unty in Texas. ups seems to come from a small number of zeal- ous vaccine opponents who can offer no corrob- More important, autism is not even a "thing" orating evidence to support tiie hearsay. that can be clearly correlated with any other tiling. Unlike cancer or a broken bone, there are Now let us return to the researdi team pur- no discTete physical, biological, or genetic mark- porting to liave data supporting the autism-vaccine ers on which to base a diagnosis. Instead, autism hypothesis. In addition to the flawed methods on is a diagnostic label baseti on the presence of a wliich their amclusioas are based, there are txm- number of behavioral excesses and defidts. The flicts of interest that should cause one to question diagnasis is subjective and subject to great vari- their motives. As it turns out, David Geier is the ability. When you coasider that niany resources president of MedCon, Inc., a leg;il fimi that seeks are made available only to those children with cx)mpeasation for people daiming to have been some formal diagnosis, it is easy to see why harmed by \^ccines. He also has filed, with his some diagnoses might he made with scant sup- father Mark Geier, two patents related to a treat- potting evidence. Tlie physician or psychologist ment for autism involving a combination (rf dnigs notices some obvious learning delays and behav- and chelation. Chelation therapy is, of course, ior problems in a patient and recognizes the predicated on the assumption of excessive need for intensive ser\'ic:es. but the only way the amounts of heavy metals in tlie blood stream of femily can obtain those services is if the child fits children with autism. The Geiens are deariy in a a certain diagnostic category. position to benefit if claims concerning a \^ccine- Correlations are tenuous things under the audsm link are accepted by tlie public. best conditions. Degrade one of the variables, and you are in serious trouble. Such is the case History Repeating with the autism-vaccine correlation. A reveiiling aspea of this controversy is how closely it resembles past controversies, pitting A Vast Govemment Conspiracy? science against vacdne-induced autism daims, So what do vaccine opponents make of the evi- spurred on by desperate parents, media support, dence agaiast the vaccine-autism hypothesis? and various servants of the public interest. Not so Mostly, they assert a vast conspiracy propagated long ago, science was up against a similar set of by govemment and industry, it is proposed that public crusaders pusliing a different cause: car- govemment agendes such as the Centers for cinogenic power lines. In 1979. a small, pooriy Disease Cx)ntrol and Prevention, in conjunction controlled and poorly conduaed sampling of with scientists with varying ties to the pharma- leukemia patients in Denver, CO supposedly ceutical industry, have gone to great lengths to re\'ealed a correlation between the patients and suppress evidence supporting a link betv>,'een the proximity of their homes to high-power \^ccines and autism. Indeed, this was the main lines.'^ The published report of these suspect point of Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Rolling Stone article. fmdings was largely ignored by the sdentific com- He and others claim tliat a conspiracy does exist munity l3ecau.se of the niiiny fatal flaws evident in and was formally discussed at a top-secret meet- the methodofogy. Enter Paul Bixxleur, a jotomalist ing in Simpsonwood, GA in 2000. with a track record of sensationalism (in the One liotly discussed result of this meeting is 19(3Os he wrote The Zipping of America, a book the purported doctoring of data by Thomas "exposing the dangers" of microwave ovens).

WWW.SKEPTIC.COM now warned the world of the dan- References report would have remained in gers posed by power lines in his 1. Kennedy, R. R. Jr. 2005. "Deadly the VAERS system. Others have book Cummts of Death. Immunity." Rolling Stone, reported submitting spurious No amount of scientific evidence 977/978. Jun&July. 57-61. reports to the VAERS system— 2. U.S. Rx)d and Drug Administra- for example that a vaccine to the contnuy could persuade the tion, n.d. Thinierosal in \^(xines. turned someone into Wonder journalists, advocacy groups, and Accessed on March 23, 2007 Woman—with similar success. legal teams demanding accountability. from http://www.fda.gov/cber 11. American Academy of /vaccine/thimerosal.htm Pediatrics, n.d. "Study Fails to Of course, tlie million-dollar ques- 3. U.S. Food and Drug Show a Connection Between tion wa5. "AccoLintabiliiy for what'" Administration, n.d. Thimerosal and Autism." Ultimately, after numemus well-con- 4. Gernsbacher, M. A.. Dawson, M.. Accessed on March 23. 2007 Goldsmith. H, H. 2005. "Three from http://www.aap.org/profed trolled studies failed to find any cor- Reasons Not to Believe in an /thimaut-mayO3.htm relation between power-lines and Autism Epidemic." Current 12. Institute of Medicine. Accessed cancer, the story grew cold and the Directions in Psyct^ological on March 28. 2007 from http:// public outrage slowly faded away. Science.l4. 55-58. www.nap.edu/openbook.php? 5 Btaxill. M. 2001. "The Rising isbn=030909237X&page=145 But not before teas of millions of Incidence of Autism: Associations 13. Of course, this does not dollars in research tVinding, with Thimerosal." Accessed on exclude the possibility that decreased property values, and law- March 23, 2007 from http:// thimerosal might differentially www. iom.edu/Object. R le/ affect an especially sensitive suiLs were lost because the matter Master/7/505/BlaxiH .pdf subset of children. Recently, was pursued long after science liad 6. Stehr-Green P., Tull P.. Stellfeld researchers have reported that delivered a verdict. Are we doomed M., Mortenson P.B., Simpson D. the neurotoxic effects of to repeat this history with the vac- 2003. Autism and Thimerosal- thinr^rosal exposure are related Containing Vaccines: Lack of to autoimmune disease-sensitivity cine controversy? Consistent Evidence for an in mice. It is unclear whether Association. American Journal of these results will hold true for Preventive Medicine. 25.101-106. humans and whether such neu- Clarifying Claims 7. Hviid A.. Stellfeld M.. Wohtfahrt rotoxlcity has any relationship to C-luiiiis of a causal link between tiie J,. Melbye M., 2003. "Association autism, but it is an important administration of tliimerosal-contain- Between Thimerosal-Containing area for further research. Unfortunately, because the "dif- ing vaccines and the onset of autism Vaccines and Autism." Journal of the American Medical ferential sensitivity" hypothesis is are unfounded. The controversy has Association. 290. 1763-1766. not yet well researched, there is been driven more by public fervor 8. Heron J.. Golding J.; ALSRAC Study no way to identify and protect Team, 'Thimerosal Exposure in those that might be at risk if it than it has loy science. This is not to proves true. However, we know suggest that the advocates and par- Infants and Developmental Dis- orcfefs: A Prospective Cohort without question the dangers of ents fueling the fire are malidous or Study in the United kingdom disease and nsks of avoiding intentionally misleading the public. Does Not Support a Causal vaccination. No matter the suspi- cions, the most pnjdent course Tlie reality is tliat Kxy many families Association." Pediatncs. 114, 577-583. of action is to go the vaccine face the unimaginable hardship of route until there is real evidence 9. Geiar. M. R., & Geler, D. A.. to do otherwise. Also, we should learning tliat tlieir child lias Yieen 2003. "Tliimerosai in Childhood note that existing evidence diagnased witli autism and niList Vaccines. Neurodevelopment already casts doubt on the dif- Disorders and Heart Disease in encounter the subsequent trials and ferential sensitivity hypothesis. If the United States." Journal of the rates of sensitivity to tribulations of prcwiding the best Asnerican Physicians and thimerosal remained constant possible care and education for tlieir Surgeons. 8. 6-11. before and after thimerosal was 10. Such a system cannot be used child. These parents are in desperate removed from vaccines, we to prove a hypothesis. Consicter need of botli assistance and would still expect a decrease in that Dr. James Laidler allegedly rates of autism. As reviewed answers. Compounding the difficulty reported that the influenza virus above, this was not the case. is that many must navigate the turned him into the Incredible waters of emei^g sdence without Hulk, and the VAERS system 14. Gernsbacher, M. A., Dawson, accepted his report! Dr. Laidier M., Goldsmith, H. H. 2005. having received the necessary train- reports that a representative of "Three Reasons Not to Believe ing to do so. Clarifying misgLiided the CDC did contact him after in an Autism Epidemic." Current claims of causative factors can help noticing the report and. ultimate- Directions in Psychological redirect necessary ii^souices to more ly, it was deleted from the Science. 14. 55-58. VAERS system, but only because 15. Stehr-Green et al.. 2003. promising treatments, and perhaps Dr. Laidler granted pemiission. 16. Park. R. 2000. ^^ixxioo Science: reveal a liener understanding of tiie According to Laidler. had his per- The Road Front Foolishness to real factors tliat cause auUsm. T mission not been granted, the Fraud. Oxford: Universi^ Press.

VOLUME 13 NUMBER 3 2007