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Brett J. Kyle Dissertation RECYCLING DICTATORS: EX-AUTHORITARIANS IN NEW DEMOCRACIES by Brett J. Kyle A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2013 Date of final oral examination: 08/26/13 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: Christina Ewig, Associate Professor, Political Science Scott Straus, Professor, Political Science David Canon, Professor, Political Science Noam Lupu, Assistant Professor, Political Science Henry Dietz, Professor, Government © Copyright by Brett J. Kyle 2013 All Rights Reserved i To my parents, Linda Davis Kyle and J. Richard Kyle ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the support of my family, friends, and colleagues. In particular, I would like to thank my co-chairs, Christina Ewig and Scott Straus, for their guidance, feedback, and questions in the development and writing process; and my committee members—David Canon, Noam Lupu, and Henry Dietz—for their insights and attention to the project. I would also like to thank Leigh Payne for her direction and consistent interest in the dissertation. In addition, Andy Reiter has been a crucial guide throughout the process. The research for this project received financial support from the UW-Madison Latin American Caribbean and Iberian Studies Tinker/Nave Grant, the Vilas Travel Grant, and the Department of Political Science’s Summer Research Initiative. Finally, I would like to thank my parents, Linda Davis Kyle and Richard Kyle, and my brother, Brock Kyle, for always being there for me and for always seeing the value of my efforts. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES iv LIST OF FIGURES v ABSTRACT vi 1 Introduction: Ex-Dictators and Elections in Latin America 1 2 Theory of Recycled Dictator Presidential Candidacy 30 3 Theory of Recycled Dictator Presidential Electoral Performance 78 4 Chile: Re-Democratization and the Regime Heir 107 5 Argentina: Authoritarian Collapse and the Protest Candidate 150 6 Guatemala: Persistent Ex-Regime Competitors 188 7 El Salvador: Short-Circuiting Recycled Dictators 225 8 Conclusion: Regime Legacies and Recycled Dictators Worldwide 270 BIBLIOGRAPHY 281 APPENDICES Appendix A: Recycled Dictator Country Case Clarifications 304 Appendix B: Party Development and Nature of Military Rule 309 Appendix C: Recycled Dictator Candidacies 324 iv LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 Recycled Dictator Country Cases 10 1.2 Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country and Role during Military Government 20 1.3 Characteristics of Recycled Dictator Military Personnel 22 2.1 Democratic Continuity and Recycled Dictator Presence by Country 54 2.2 States with High Level of Threat to Former Regime Actors 61 3.1 Recycled Dictator Candidates in States of High Democratic Continuity 84 3.2 Regime Heir Recycled Dictators 95 3.3 Rogue Officer Recycled Dictators 101 3.4 Caudillo Democrat Recycled Dictators 105 5.1 Common Historical Experiences of the Two Major Argentine Parties 159 6.1 Recycled Dictator Candidates in Guatemala 195 7.1 Successful Military Coups and their Reformist Orientation in El Salvador, 1931-84 232 7.2 Opportunitites for Political Change in El Salvador, 1931-84 235 7.3 ARENA and CD/FMLN Candidates in El Salvador, 1984-2009 253 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1.1 Categories of Recycled Dictators 11 1.2 Presidential Candidates by Category of Role during Military Government 19 2.1 Predicted Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates 52 2.2 Pathways of Democratic Experience, Military Experience, and Recycled Dictator Presence 58 2.3 Aggregate Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates 62 2.4 Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country 63 2.5 Normalized Distribution of Recycled Dictator Presidential Candidacies by Year of Election in Twelve Latin American Countries (1979-2011) 73 2.6 Recycled Dictator Presence among Members of Military Government 76 3.1 Recycled Dictator Candidacies Winning Greater than 10% of Nationwide Presidential Vote 83 4.1 Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country, Chile 111 4.2 Electoral Competition in Chilean Presidential Election, 1958 122 5.1 Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country, Argentina 153 6.1 Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country, Guatemala 191 7.1 Presence of Recycled Dictator Candidates by Country, El Salvador 228 7.2 Evolution of Major Salvadoran Parties, 1930-2011 231 vi ABSTRACT What explains the presence and performance of former regime leaders in elections for public office after a transition to democracy? This study develops the concept of recycled dictators as the phenomenon of those individuals associated with non-democratic government who enter electoral politics after a transition to democracy. It focuses on candidates associated with the military regimes that immediately preceded the third wave of democratization in 12 countries across Latin America, identifying 67 ex-authoritarian candidacies in presidential contests, with eight of those ending in victory for a former regime official. The study finds that recycled dictators are present at higher rates in cases of lower “democratic continuity”— conditions of less experience with democracy prior to military rule and military replacement of civilian politics with military parties competing under managed democracy. The project establishes the background conditions and causal pathways for recycled dictator presence based on level of democratic continuity and level of threat to former regime actors that structure the four types of recycled dictator competition: (1) Return of democratic representatives; (2) Protest candidacies; (3) Persistence of authoritarian competitors; and (4) Mixed competition. The study challenges the notion that Latin American voters are not committed to democracy, as most ex- regime officials finish with only single-digit vote share. Candidates who achieve +10% of the vote, however, share particular characteristics. The study offers a typology of these successful candidates with three categories: (1) Regime Heir – a candidate who assumes the mantle of the regime in which he served; (2) Rogue Officer – a candidate who led a military uprising with an anti-corruption message and who quickly parlays that message into a political career; and (3) Caudillo Democrat – a candidate who has built a more traditional path to the presidency by holding lower-level public office and constructing a party over time, yet who still runs promising vii authoritarian solutions to national challenges. The study advances understanding of popular and elite commitment to democracy and contributes a predictive theory on recycled dictators’ electoral presence and the intensity of their appeal. The project proposes that the theory is generalizable to ongoing and future transitions across the globe. 1 Chapter 1 Introduction: Ex-Dictators and Elections in Latin America The departure of a military regime and the inauguration of civilian democracy is an extraordinary moment. The prospect of rule by the people after military repression presents a nation with great promise. While political institutions are reformed and new freedoms are exercised, the repressor and repressed, victim, perpetrator and bystander, military and civilian all continue to be affected by their roles under the previous regime. When members of the former government run for elected office in the new democracy, and old dictators find their way back into politics, the stark question comes into view: did democratization change anything? Will ex- authoritarians’ presence in politics undermine democracy? Are they more dangerous inside or outside the system? These “recycled dictators” are a unique feature of the transitional political landscape. Present across Latin America in the wake of the third wave of democratization, understanding the role of these ex-regime candidates in new political processes is crucial to assessing the nature and strength of former regime elements in nascent democracies. In November 2011, amid rising crime rates and increasing fears of nationwide chaos fueled by the drug trade, Guatemala elected former General Otto Pérez Molina of the Partido Patriota to the presidency on a platform promising la mano dura (the iron fist) in managing the nation’s affairs.1 As an army officer during Guatemala’s long-running civil war, Gen. Otto Pérez had been associated with some of the most brutal campaigns of the conflict, including those labeled genocide by one Guatemalan truth commission.2 But, he also played a role in removing General Efraín Ríos Montt from power in 1983—the de facto military leader most responsible 1 “Guatemaltecos eligen a Otto Pérez Molina como Presidente,” Prensa Libre, 6 November, 2011; Partido Patriota 2011. 2 GHRC 2011; Osorio 2000; REMHI 1999. 2 for overseeing the scorched earth campaign against the indigenous population—and he served as the Guatemalan Army’s representative in the peace negotiations ending the civil war.3 Having a role on both sides of the military past—the brutal violence and the cause of peace and democratization—Pérez illustrates the complexity of ex-regime officials and their diverse character as candidates for public office in a new democracy. He accepted the rules of the democratic game in order to stand for election yet still draws appeal as a credible messenger for a heavy-handed approach to governance. Recycled dictators face distinct challenges and opportunities in their electoral campaigns and their presence in the new
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