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Sselaer, NY 12144 December 9, 2013 10 Krey Boulevard Rensselaer, NY 12144 December 9, 2013 Re: NYISO 2013 Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Studies Report Dear NYISO Economic Planning Interested Parties: On November 19, 2013 the New York Independent System Operator, Inc. (NYISO) Board of Directors approved the attached 2013 Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Studies Report (2013 CARIS Report). The 2013 CARIS Report was developed in compliance with the NYISO’s Tariff, specifically Attachment Y of the NYISO’s Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT). Market participants actively engaged in the development of the 2013 CARIS model assumptions, the review of analysis results, and the review and approval of the final 2013 CARIS Report. The 2013 CARIS Report presents the impact of historic and projected congestion on the New York Control Area electric system and the potential benefits to New York consumers of generic generation, transmission, demand response, and energy efficiency solutions. The impact of historic and projected congestion is determined in accordance with the applicable provisions of the NYISO’s OATT, as are the potential benefits of the generic solutions. The NYISO’s OATT requires that New York system-wide production cost savings be the sole metric for the evaluation of the economic benefit of projects in the CARIS process. Under this tariff- prescribed process, a project’s projected benefits are, in turn, compared to the cost of that project to produce a benefit-cost ratio. The time-horizon over which project benefits are measured is limited to ten years. Analysis of additional metrics such as capacity market savings and environmental benefits are included in the 2013 CARIS Report, for informational purposes only. Consistent with the method prescribed by the NYISO’s OATT, metrics other than production cost savings and the informational metrics are not evaluated in the 2013 CARIS. Such other metrics may include impacts to system reliability, grid operations, economic development, property taxes and employment. As a result, the benefit-cost ratios presented in the 2013 CARIS Report reflect some, but not necessarily all of the benefits associated with transmission upgrades or other potential solutions to address system congestion. The 2013 CARIS Report provides one tool for stakeholders to make an economic assessment of transmission congestion relief solutions. However, the benefits of proposed upgrades may be evaluated by examining additional metrics beyond only production cost savings. Accordingly, the benefit-cost ratio of a particular project may be materially different based on the specific metrics evaluated. Respectfully submitted, /s/ Henry Chao Henry Chao Vice President, System Resource Planning 2013 Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study Comprehensive System Planning Process CARIS – Phase 1 November 19, 2013 NYISO System Resources and Planning staff can be reached at 518-356-6000 to address any questions regarding this CARIS report or the NYISO’s economic planning processes. Caution and Disclaimer The contents of these materials are for information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purposes. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) assumes no responsibility to the reader or any other party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. The NYISO may revise these materials at any time in its sole discretion without notice to the reader. NYISO 2013 Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 19 2. Background ......................................................................................................................................... 22 2.1. Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study (CARIS) Process ........................... 22 2.1.1. Phase 1 - Study Phase ..................................................................................................... 23 2.1.2. Phase 2 – Regulated Economic Transmission Project (RETP) Cost Allocation Phase ... 24 3. CARIS Methodology and Metrics ...................................................................................................... 27 3.1. CARIS Methodology .................................................................................................................. 27 3.2. CARIS Metrics ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.1. Principal Benefit Metric ..................................................................................................... 28 3.2.2. Additional Benefit Metrics ................................................................................................. 28 4. Baseline System Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 30 4.1. Notable System Assumptions & Modeling Changes ................................................................. 30 4.2. Load and Capacity Forecast ...................................................................................................... 33 4.3. Transmission Model ................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.1. New York Control Area Transfer Limits ............................................................................ 34 4.4. Fuel Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 35 4.4.1. CARIS Base Annual Forecast ........................................................................................... 35 4.4.2. New York Fuel Forecast ................................................................................................... 35 4.4.3. Seasonality and Volatility .................................................................................................. 37 4.4.4. External Areas Fuel Forecast ........................................................................................... 39 4.5. Emission Cost Forecast ............................................................................................................. 39 4.6. Generic Solutions ...................................................................................................................... 41 4.6.1. Resource Block Sizes ....................................................................................................... 42 4.6.2. Guidelines and Assumptions for Generic Solutions .......................................................... 43 4.6.3 Generic Solution Pricing Considerations ................................................................................... 44 5. 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Results ............................................................................................................. 46 5.1. Congestion Assessment ............................................................................................................ 46 5.1.1. Historic Congestion ........................................................................................................... 46 5.1.2. Projected Future Congestion ............................................................................................ 49 5.2. Ranking of Congested Elements ............................................................................................... 50 5.3. Three CARIS Studies ................................................................................................................ 51 5.3.1. Selection of the Three Studies .......................................................................................... 51 5.3.2. Generic Solutions to Congestion ...................................................................................... 54 5.4. Benefit/Cost Analysis ................................................................................................................. 61 5.4.1. Cost Analysis .................................................................................................................... 61 5.4.2. Primary Metric Results ...................................................................................................... 62 5.4.3. Benefit/Cost Ratios ........................................................................................................... 63 5.4.4. Additional Metrics Results ................................................................................................. 64 5.5. Scenario Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 67 NYISO 2013 Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study 1 5.5.1. Scenario Analysis .............................................................................................................. 67 6. 2013 CARIS Findings – Study Phase ............................................................................................... 74 7. Next Steps ........................................................................................................................................... 76 7.1. Additional CARIS Studies
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