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Protest Mobilization and Democratization in a Comparative Perspective

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Protest Mobilization and Democratization in a Comparative Perspective PROTEST MOBILIZATION AND DEMOCRATIZATION IN A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE Mohammad Ali Kadivar A dissertation submitted to the faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Sociology. Chapel Hill 2016 Approved By: Charles Kurzman Kenneth Andrews Chris Bail Neal Caren Graeme Robertson i © 2016 Mohammad Ali Kadivar ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT Mohammad Ali Kadivar: Protest Mobilization & Democratization in a Comparative Perspective (Under the direction of Charles Kurzman) What is the effect of protest mobilization on democratic transition and durability? This dissertation argues that protest mobilization increases the odds for a democratic transition, but it is the length of the mobilization that matters for the durability of new democratic regimes. In particular, sustained unarmed uprisings have generated the longest-lasting new democracies – largely because they are forced to develop an organizational structure that provides a leadership cadre for the new regime, forges links between the government and society, and strengthens checks on the power of the post-transition government. I use quantitative methods, comparative case studies, and a detailed case study of Egypt to demonstrate this argument. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT First of all, I would like to thank my advisor Charles Kurzman for the guidance, direction, and feedback that he provided on this manuscript. It has been an exceptional opportunity to have Charlie as my mentor through graduate school at UNC. Not only have I learned analytical thinking and the norms of academic research and writing from him, but he has familiarized me with the expectations of academic presentation and interaction in the US academia. I also thank Andy Andrews for his support and feedback on my research throughout my studies. It was in his social movement seminar that I learned a more comprehensive vision of the field, and his comments have enriched my work in terms of theoretical framework as well as methodological rigor. I thank Neal Caren, from whom I also learned some of the quantitative techniques that I have used in this dissertation as well as in my other projects. Finally, I thank Graeme Robertson who both challenged me to think further about the causal mechanisms in my argument as well as about the complexities of my cases. Outside my committee members, I learned a lot from my theory classes with Andrew Perrin and my methods course with Ted Mow. My friends and classmates at UNC have been also crucial in my intellectual journey and learning process. I want to thank Shawn Bauldry for his help and expertise with the quantitative sections of my dissertation. On some occasions, he helped me as much as a committee member would. I have also learned from my classmates Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman and benefited from their generous help and comments. Shane Elliott and David Rigby provided comments on different drafts of my work iv through our small writing group. I also want my good friend Aseem Hasnain who was my student buddy when I started grad school at UNC. Aseem was very supportive and kind when I had just come to Chapel Hill and did not have many friends. I have also enjoyed Aseem’s free spirit and his broader vision about scholarship and life. I thank also my friend Ahsan Kamal whose presence at UNC sociology has been refreshing and a reminder about the important connection about academic work and activist concerns. I thank my friend Char Lloyd both for her comments and her generous help with editing different drafts of my work. I especially thank my dear friend Mehrdad Babadi who always reminded me about having bigger goals and ambitions, and also about the importance of learning broadly. Mehrdad was a big emotional support through stressful times of grad school. In fact, Mehrdad was the person who told me about the sociology department at UNC and mentioned that Charlie could be a good fit for my research interests. Finally, I thank my family, particularly my mother, for supporting me wholeheartedly throughout the many stages of my education including my PhD. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 2: PRE-ELECTION MOBILIZATION AND ELECTORAL OUTCOME IN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES ............................................ 4 Authoritarian Elections, Mobilization, and Democratization ............................................................. 6 Pre-election Protest and Opposition Empowerment ......................................................................... 10 Data and Method................................................................................................................................... 14 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Discussion and Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 27 CHAPTER 3: POPULAR MOBILIZATION AND THE DURABILITY OF NEW DEMOCRACIES ............................................................................ 47 Democratic Breakdown ........................................................................................................................ 48 Mass Mobilization and Democratic Transitions ................................................................................ 50 Popular Campaigns and Democratic Durability ................................................................................ 51 The Universe of Cases ........................................................................................................................... 55 Measures ................................................................................................................................................ 56 Quantitative Method ............................................................................................................................. 61 Event History Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 62 Case Studies ........................................................................................................................................... 66 vi South Africa ........................................................................................................................................... 69 Poland .................................................................................................................................................... 73 Pakistan .................................................................................................................................................. 76 Russia ..................................................................................................................................................... 78 Indonesia ................................................................................................................................................ 82 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 85 CHAPTER 4: PREDICAMENTS OF RAPID SUCCESS: EGYPT’S FAILED DEMOCRATIZATION 2011-3 .............................................................. 99 Civil Society and Democratic Failure................................................................................................ 102 Data and Method................................................................................................................................. 104 January 25th Rebellion, Too Short to Endure ................................................................................... 105 The Negative Coalition Crumbles ..................................................................................................... 109 The old regime strikes back ............................................................................................................... 120 The treacherous alliance, civil society & old regime vs. the elected government .......................... 124 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 130 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION................................................................................................. 132 APPENDIX 1: THE LIST OF ELECTIONS IN THE ANALYSIS ..................................... 135 APPENDIX 2: DEMOCRATIC REGIMES IN THE ANALYSIS 1960-2010 ............................................................................................... 139 APPENDIX 3: MOBILIZATION LENGTH AT DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS 1950-2010 ......................................................................... 142 APPENDIX 4: ROBUSTNESS TESTS ................................................................................... 222 APPENDIX 5: NEWSPAPER ARTICLES CITED .............................................................. 237 vii BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................
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