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Report on Climate Change and Air Quality Interactions Ref. Ares(2017)1075045 - 28/02/2017 Report on climate change and air quality interactions ––––––––– –––– D1.4 February 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 689954. D1.4 Report on climate change and air quality interactions Project Acronym and iSCAPE - Improving the Smart Control of Air Pollution in Europe Name Grant Agreement 689954 Number Document Type Report Document version & V0.5 WP 1 WP No. Document Title Report on climate change and air quality interactions Main authors Silvana Di Sabatino (Lead UNIBO), Kirsti Jylhä (Lead FMI), Francesco Barbano, Alessio Francesco Brunetti, Achim Drebs, Carl Fortelius, Väinö Nurmi, Enrico Minguzzi, Beatrice Pulvirenti, Athanasios Votsis Partner in charge UNIBO Contributing partners UNIBO, FMI, ARPAE – (main contributors) UoS, UCD, UH, TUDO (provided reference data for their city) Release date 28/02/2017 The publication reflects the author’s views. The European Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Document Control Page Short Description This report is the results of the work described in Task 1.4 of the ISCAPE project as an output Deliverable D1.4. The report aims to summarize current understanding of urban climate change, air quality studies and their interconnection. It provides a broad overview of challenges that are relevant for PCSs deployment to mitigate the impact of climate changes in future scenarios. It critically depicts the science basis for later numerical modelling and experimental studies within ISCAPE and provide suggestions for other WPs. - 1 - D1.4 Report on climate change and air quality interactions Review status Action Person Date Quality Check Coordination Team 28/02/2017 Internal Review John Gallagher, TCD 15/02/2017 Andreas Skouloudis, JRC 24/02/2017 Distribution Public Revision history Version Date Modified by Comments V0.1 Francesco Barbano; Silvana Di Sabatino; Beatrice Pulvirenti; Enrico 22/01/2017 Alessio Francesco Minguzzi Brunetti V0.2 Kirsti Jylhä, Carl Silvana Di Sabatino; Beatrice Pulvirenti; Fortelius, Väinö Nurmi, Francesco Barbano 27/01/2017 Achim Drebs, Athanasios Votsis V0.3 Francesco Barbano; Alessio Francesco Silvana Di Sabatino; Beatrice Pulvirenti; Enrico Brunetti; Kirsti Jylhä, 08/02/2017 Minguzzi Carl Fortelius, Väinö Nurmi, Achim Drebs, Athanasios Votsis V0.4 Silvana Di Sabatino; Beatrice Pulvirenti; Enrico Minguzzi; Francesco Barbano; Reviewed by John Gallagher and Andreas 27/02/2017 Alessio Francesco Skouloudis Brunetti; Kirsti Jylhä, Carl Fortelius, Väinö Nurmi V0.5 28/02/2017 Aakash C. Rai WP1 leader’s edits. - 2 - D1.4 Report on climate change and air quality interactions Final 28/02/2017 Francesco Pilla Quality check Statement of originality: This deliverable contains original unpublished work except where clearly indicated otherwise. Acknowledgement of previously published material and of the work of others has been made through appropriate citation, quotation or both. - 3 - D1.4 Report on climate change and air quality interactions Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary .......................................................................................... - 11 - 2 Introduction ....................................................................................................... - 13 - 3 Climate change in EU cities ............................................................................. - 17 - 3.1 Assessment of climate change from regional to urban scales .......................... - 17 - 3.1.1 Climate simulations at regional scale ................................................................ - 19 - 3.1.2 Urban micro-climate simulations ........................................................................ - 21 - 3.1.3 Development of synthetic weather data for a future urban climate .................... - 22 - 3.2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ......................................................................... - 24 - 3.3 Changing climate in the iSCAPE study regions .................................................. - 26 - 3.3.1 Temperature ...................................................................................................... - 27 - 3.3.2 Precipitation ....................................................................................................... - 29 - 3.3.3 Solar radiation .................................................................................................... - 30 - 3.3.4 Diurnal temperature range ................................................................................. - 31 - 3.3.5 Air pressure and wind speed ............................................................................. - 33 - 3.4 Summary and outlook for further urban climate change work in iSCAPE ........ - 35 - 4 Air quality and climate change interactions over Europe ............................. - 36 - 4.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. - 36 - 4.2 Air quality and local climate change interactions ............................................... - 39 - 5 Heat waves ........................................................................................................ - 41 - 5.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. - 41 - 5.2 Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) ..................................................................... - 46 - 6 iSCAPE cities .................................................................................................... - 49 - 6.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. - 49 - 6.2 Bologna and Lazzaretto (IT) ................................................................................... - 51 - 6.2.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 51 - 6.2.2 Effect of atmospheric warming on ozone concentrations .................................. - 55 - 6.2.3 Local wind patterns versus air pollution ............................................................. - 58 - 6.3 Bottrop (DE) ............................................................................................................. - 60 - 6.3.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 60 - 6.3.2 Urban growth and population exposure ............................................................. - 62 - 6.4 Dublin (IE) ................................................................................................................ - 64 - 6.4.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 64 - 6.4.2 Emission reduction policies ............................................................................... - 67 - 6.5 Guildford (UK) ......................................................................................................... - 69 - 6.5.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 69 - 6.5.2 Surrey climate change strategy ......................................................................... - 71 - 6.6 Hasselt (BE) ............................................................................................................. - 73 - 6.6.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 73 - 6.6.2 Measure for air quality improvements ................................................................ - 74 - 6.7 Vantaa (FI) ................................................................................................................ - 76 - 6.7.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................... - 76 - 6.7.2 Long term trend in NO2 emissions ..................................................................... - 79 - 6.8 A brief comparison ................................................................................................. - 80 - - 4 - D1.4 Report on climate change and air quality interactions 6.9 Outlook: green infrastructure as examples of mitigation and adaptation options .. - 81 - 7 Summary on air quality and climate change .................................................. - 83 - 8 Appendix A: Air Quality Standards (European Commission, 2017) ............. - 84 - 9 References / Bibliography ................................................................................ - 86 - List of Tables TABLE 1: TEST REFERENCE YEAR (TRY) FOR VANTAA. TRY CONSISTS OF WEATHER DATA FOR TWELVE MONTHS THAT ORIGINATE FROM DIFFERENT CALENDAR YEARS (COLUMN 2), EACH MONTH HAVING WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE LONG-TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THE MONTHS FOR TRY WERE SELECTED USING FINKELSTEIN-SCHAFER PARAMETERS FOR FOUR CLIMATIC VARIABLES (AIR TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, SOLAR RADIATION AND WIND SPEED). COLUMNS 3-6 GIVE THE TRY MONTHLY MEANS OF THESE VARIABLES (JYLHÄ ET AL., 2011). ........................................................................................................................ - 23 - TABLE 2: ANNUAL MEAN CONCENTRATIONS OF NO2. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN URBAN TRAFFIC AND BACKGROUND 3 MEASUREMENTS ARE SHOWN. THE EUROPEAN LIMIT FOR NO2 ANNUAL MEAN
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