INDIA SOLAR COMPASS 2017Q2 © BRIDGE to INDIA, 2017 2 Preface
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INDIA SOLAR COMPASS 2017Q2 © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 2 Preface Dear Reader, I am delighted to present to you our new, more comprehensive India Solar Compass. As the Indian solar market matures and grows in volumes, we have expanded the scope of this report to pack all vital information – tender and project updates, leading players, financing deal flow, policy status etc. The Compass aims to provide you with not just an update on the previous quarter but also an insight into the coming quarters. I hope that it will give you a unique vantage point on the sector dynamics in a concise yet comprehensive format. I have no doubt that there is huge scope for improvement in both content and format. Please help us with your feedback. The Compass shall be a paid report from next quarter onwards. You have a number of subscription options – for more details, please contact [email protected]. Sincerely, Vinay Rustagi Managing Director © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 3 Contents 1. Introduction 5 2. Total installed capacity 6 3. Capacity addition 10 3.1 Slowdown in capacity addition in Q2 2017 10 3.2 Capacity addition estimate for Q3 2017 13 4. Leading players 15 4.1 Leading developers based on capacity commissioned in Q2 2017 15 4.2 Solar modules 15 4.3 Inverters 16 5. Tender progress updates 17 5.1 Increase in tender issuance (and cancellations) 17 5.2 Tender result announcements 21 5.3 Anticipated tenders 25 6. Pricing updates 26 6.1 EPC costs 26 6.2 Solar modules 26 6.3 Inverters 27 7. Financing 29 7.1 Equity funding 29 7.2 Debt funding 30 7.3 Mergers and acquisitions 31 8. Policy and regulatory updates 33 8.1 Central government 33 8.2 State governments 34 8.3 Other updates 35 9. Key market insights 38 9.1 GST implementation to result in temporary hiccups 38 9.2 Low tariffs to halt solar tracker market 38 9.3 India begins transition from 1,000V to 1,500V systems 39 10. Relevant international developments 40 10.1 Extension of China’s FIT deadline to delay cycle of 40 module price reduction 10.2 Suniva’s safeguard petition to add to increased 41 global Q3 and Q4 demand 10.3 US withdrawal from Paris accord not to have any 41 long-term impact on India 10.4 Increasing adoption of mono c-Si and PERC technology 42 © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 4 1. Introduction Q2 2017 was a landmark period in the Indian solar sector, when tariffs fell below M 3.00/ kWh level making solar power the cheapest new source of power in India. At these tariff levels, solar power becomes financially attractive for distribution companies (DISCOMs) and other large users. It is no longer a regulatory or environmental compulsion. But India’s energy transition is not proving to be easy. Tariff reduction of 40% in last year has resulted in several ongoing tenders being scrapped as states and other agencies are redesigning their procurement schemes. More worryingly, some states including Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are seeking to renegotiate or cancel previously allocated projects (at higher tariffs). It is a testing time for project developers, investors and lenders who are anyway facing many other challenges. Key highlights of the quarter: • More than 3,000 MW of new tenders were announced, greater than the aggregate of all new tenders announced in previous three quarters. But at the same time, 2,100 MW of tenders were scrapped. Slowdown in project allocation has become a major concern for developers, who are struggling to find new project opportunities and deploy their capital. This, in turn, is leading to fierce competition in tenders and reduced returns. • After falling faster than expected over the last year, module prices started firming up towards the end of the quarter. Prices are expected to remain firm for another 2-3 months driven by strong demand from China and the USA (in anticipation of possible safeguard duties). Availability is also becoming very tight and is likely to lead to delays in project execution timelines for Q3 and Q4. • Goods and Services Tax (GST) was introduced from July 1, 2017. The industry is relieved that modules qualify for a concessional rate of 5%, but there is still confusion about the rate on other equipment. Overall, we expect a net increase in project cost of 3-8% depending on GST rate for other equipment. • On the financing side, private equity and M&A activity in the sector remains buoyant. There is huge investment interest in the sector and we expect M&A deal flow to accelerate as primary project pipeline slows down. While the sector still presents an immense growth opportunity in the long run, developers and manufacturers face considerable challenges in the short run. But it can now be termed as a mature market, which means that all incentives and support mechanisms will be withdrawn over time as noted by the draft National Energy Policy (NEP). © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 5 2. Total installed capacity India’s total installed solar power generation capacity reached 15,611 MW on June 30, 2017. Total project pipeline, where projects have been allocated to developers, stands at 12,250 MW. Figure 2.1: Total installed and pipeline capacity as on June 30, 2017 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Note: All figures are in MW Performance of leading states for both utility scale solar and rooftop solar is shown in the following charts. © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 6 Figure 2.2a.: Utility scale solar installed and pipeline capacity Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Notes 1. The Jharkhand state tender for 1,200 MW, issued in March 2016, is not included as it is likely to be cancelled. 2. All numbers and comments in this report apply to utility scale solar unless explicitly mentioned for rooftop solar. © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 7 Figure 2.2b. Rooftop solar installed capacity Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Top 20 developers account for 60% of total commissioned and pipeline capacity. Greenko has commissioned the highest capacity so far (1,082 MW). Adani (1,157 MW) and Acme (1,150 MW) have the largest capacities in pipeline. © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 8 Figure 2.3: Top 20 developers Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Note: HPPPL- Hindustan Power Projects Private Limited © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 9 3. Capacity addition 3.1 Slowdown in capacity addition in Q2 2017 After a bumper Q1 2017 (end of FY17), pace of commissioning in Q2 2017 was relatively slow. While anticipated capacity addition, based on PPA signing dates and commissioning schedule, was around 3,300 MW, actual addition was only 1,437 MW. Out of this, 635 MW (44%) came from central policy projects and 802 MW (56%) from state policy projects. 1,047 MW (75%) of the commissioned capacity was in the open category while the remaining was under domestic content requirement (DCR). Figure 3.1 New capacity addition in Q2 2017 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Telangana installed the highest capacity in Q2. The state is also likely to deploy more capacity than any other state in the coming quarter. © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 10 Figure 3.2 State-wise capacity addition in Q2 2017 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research Key reasons for slippages in capacity addition Telangana 2,000 MW tender: Around 1,680 MW of the 2,000 MW tender was due to be commissioned in Q2 but only 640 MW came online bringing total capacity commissioned so far to 920 MW. Several projects have faced delays due to land related issues, delays in statutory approvals etc. Key developers who commissioned capacities in Q2 are Shapoorji Pallonji (100 MW), ReNew (143 MW) and Acme (255 MW). SECI Maharashtra 450 MW tender: The tender saw only 170 MW come online by three developers - Orange renewables (100 MW), Bhageria Industries (30 MW) and Sepset constructions (40 MW). Another 180 MW capacity (Atha group, Suzlon and SolarArise) is likely to be commissioned in Q3 2017. The remaining 100 MW capacity allocated to Welspun is unlikely to be commissioned during the next six months. When Welspun sold its project portfolio to Tata Power in September 2016, it retained the 100 MW project because of Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) stipulation that developers cannot sell more than 49% stake until a year after commissioning. Welspun has paid M 84 million in delay penalties and filed a petition in the Delhi High Court to restrain SECI from cancelling the project. NTPC Rajasthan 420 MW tender: Projects under this tender were due to be commissioned in Q1 2017. 140 MW was commissioned by Fortum (70 MW) and Rattan India (70 MW) in Q1 2017 while Solairedirect has partially commissioned its 90 MW project in Q2 2017. Remaining 190 MW capacity (Rising Sun and Solairedirect) is likely to be commissioned in Q3 2017. © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017 11 Madhya Pradesh 300 MW tender: 150 MW of capacity awarded to SkyPower was due to be commissioned in Q2 2017 but commissioning is likely to be delayed beyond Q4 2017. Remaining 150 MW has already been commissioned in previous quarters. Punjab 500 MW tender: These projects were due for commissioning in Q4 2016 and there is still around 125 MW pending. Pending projects were awarded to Today Group and there is a lack of clarity about their commissioning status. Figure 3.3 Actual commissioning vs anticipated commissioning for Q2 2017 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research, company interviews Note: Anticipated commissioning estimates include slippages from previous quarters Rooftop solar - Around 264 MW of capacity is estimated to have been added in Q2 (137% increase over Q2 2016), which saw a rush for completion of projects due to the impending GST implementation.