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India 2020: Utilities & Renewables

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India 2020: Utilities & Renewables Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 19 July 2015 India 2020: Utilities Asia & Renewables India Utilities Utilities Abhishek Puri Research Analyst (+91) 22 7180 4214 [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors Make way for the Sun India solar power investments could surpass that of coal India has made an exceptional commitment to solar energy by raising its 2022 target five-fold to 100GW and its Renewable Energy target to 175GW. The government has announced an unprecedented policy push and states are providing the necessary infrastructure. Annual investments in solar could surpass investment in coal by 2019-20, with USD 35bn committed by global players. For local IPPs, solar has to be an inherent part of their expansion strategy, as RE obligations become strictly enforceable and cost of coal power increases. NTPC, Adani and RPWR are ahead in this development cycle which adds 10-15% to our current valuations. NTPC is our top pick. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date India 19 July 2015 Utilities India 2020: Utilities Utilities FITT Research & Renewables Abhishek Puri Research Analyst Make way for the Sun (+91) 22 7180 4214 [email protected] India solar power investments could surpass that of coal Top picks India has made an exceptional commitment to solar energy by raising its 2022 NTPC Limited (NTPC.BO),INR135.15 Buy target five-fold to 100GW and its Renewable Energy target to 175GW. The Source: Deutsche Bank government has announced an unprecedented policy push and states are providing the necessary infrastructure. Annual investments in solar could Companies Featured surpass investment in coal by 2019-20, with USD 35bn committed by global players. For local IPPs, solar has to be an inherent part of their expansion NTPC Limited (NTPC.BO),INR135.15 Buy strategy, as RE obligations become strictly enforceable and cost of coal power 2015A 2016E 2017E increases. NTPC, Adani and RPWR are ahead in this development cycle which P/E (x) 13.5 11.6 10.3 Price/book (x) 1.30 1.26 1.18 adds 10-15% to our current valuations. NTPC is our top pick. CESC Ltd (CESC.BO),INR591.00 Hold We raise our solar power forecast by 240% 2015A 2016E 2017E Global majors have committed USD 35bn+ to the Indian solar sector. By 2020, P/E (x) 43.4 22.6 10.6 annual solar power capacity additions and investments could surpass those in Price/book (x) 1.33 1.23 1.10 coal power projects. We are raising our solar power forecasts by 240% to 34GW by 2020. This is on the back of strong commissioning (4.5GW), even Adani Power (ADAN.BO),INR30.00 Hold stronger pipeline - under construction (~5.1GW), and new projects (~15GW). 2015A 2016E 2017E By then, renewables could account for a significant 20% of power capacities in P/E (x) – – 29.41 Price/book (x) 2.4 1.5 1.5 India, per our forecast. Private sector interest is decisively moving towards solar from coal power, and we foresee numerous opportunities of fund-raising, Reliance Power (RPOL.BO),INR46.35 Hold yieldco structuring and M&A activity. 2015A 2016E 2017E RE can reach 20% of capacity but we see challenges to higher penetration P/E (x) 20.62 8.21 6.60 Price/book (x) 0.8 0.6 0.5 (1) Transmission constraints and integration of diurnal power into the grid are risks, without peak-load management capability. Solar absorption in Rajasthan Tata Power (TTPW.BO),INR76.05 Buy could see challenges like wind in Tamil Nadu, given policy target of 25GW 2015A 2016E 2017E solar vs. peak-demand of 11GW. (2) A further risk is the enforcement of RE P/E (x) 46.83 19.50 18.87 purchase obligations (RPOs) given weak finances of state distribution cos, and Price/book (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3 hence large-scale absorption of solar could be a concern (INR 170bn additional burden by 2020E). (3) Other issues include financing, land acquisition, limited Power Grid Corporation Hold domestic manufacturing, and returns/reliability of baseline data. (PGRD.BO),INR141.00 2015A 2016E 2017E Impact on the thermal power producers P/E (x) 14.10 13.13 11.16 Solar could have a significant impact on day power rates, given that generation Price/book (x) 2.0 1.7 1.5 peaks between 9am and 6pm. In turn, this could reduce the coal requirement by ~8% or 70mnt by 2020E, largely impacting the highest cost of power, i.e., NHPC (NHPC.BO),INR19.10 Hold imported coal – leading to large savings (~USD 17bn/pa). 2014A 2015E 2016E P/E (x) 9.98 9.02 7.94 Companies to play the theme (see pp 26-34 for global and unlisted players) Price/book (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 Indian IPPs have started adopting a solar growth strategy, given competitive Source: Deutsche Bank pricing which may restrict conventional power growth. Additionally, cost competitiveness is at risk, as the possibility of further cess cannot be ruled out to fund RE subsidies. Utilities- NTPC, Reliance and Adani - are early adopters and making large-scale commitments – resulting in ~5% incremental growth and 10-15% impact on target price. PV manufacturers and EPC service providers will also see benefits, although the majority of PV cells are likely to be imported given the small scale of domestic PV industry. Our valuation framework is based on DCF and P/B; risks We value the regulated models on P/B (on Gordon Growth) and IPPs on the NPV of projects. Key risks are lower-than-expected domestic coal supplies, execution delays and lower/higher-than-expected merchant tariffs. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. 19 July 2015 Utilities India 2020: Utilities & Renewables Table Of Contents Executive summary ............................................................. 4 Can India achieve 100GW of solar by 2022? ...................................................... 7 USD 35bn+ investments planned by global investors ........................................ 7 Cost parity in sight; advantage goes to solar on LCOE ....................................... 8 Solar power additions could surpass those for coal power ................................ 9 Stock implications ............................................................................................ 10 Solar shift could reduce coal dependence by ~8% ........................................... 10 Solar value-chain to benefit .............................................................................. 11 India power sector coverage valuations ........................................................... 11 Global solar players’ returns and valuations ..................................................... 12 The new rising sector − Solar power ................................ 13 Excitement brewing over Indian solar power ................................................... 13 Attracting global attention ................................................................................ 14 Solar is gaining favor globally ........................................................................... 15 In India, capacity addition is picking up exponentially ..................................... 15 RE potential is just 4% utilized in India ............................................................. 16 Cost parity is driving investments… ................................................................. 16 Tariff parity almost there for the consumers .................................................... 17 Tariff parity at generation level still some time away ....................................... 18 Decline in capital costs is driving tariffs lower… .............................................. 18 …however, life-cycle cost points to parity ........................................................ 20 Disruptive power of renewables, as they achieve grid parity ........................... 20 Solar fetches reasonable ROEs ......................................................................... 21 Sensitivity to the return profile is high for utilization and interest costs ........... 21 Business models in solar power ....................................................................... 23 Fiscal incentives enhance the return profile ..................................................... 24 Unprecedented push to solar power policies .................... 25 Strong government policy support ................................................................... 25 National Solar Mission – 20GW by 2022 .......................................................... 26 13GW solar parks approved; 20GW total plan ................................................. 27 55GW state-level policy target.........................................................................
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