Does a Single Large Facility Imply Increased Risk?

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Does a Single Large Facility Imply Increased Risk? R. R. Parker MFE ITER/Exp Plenary Does a Single Large Facility Imply Increased Risk? Short Answer: Yes, multiple large facilities would reduce risk, but this is not an option at present. Does a Single Large Facility Imply Increased Risk? Various types of risks can be identified: -Technical -Physics -Programmatic The technical risks can be minimized by a substantial R&D effort. See ITER posters. Physics Risks are Minimized by Maintaining a Strong Base Tokamak Program ST, Stellarator, RFP, other ICCs Base Tokamak Physics physics ASDEX-UG, DIII-D, JT-60U (SU?), JET, CMOD, Tore Supra, FT-U, KSTAR, Plasma Plasma New SC Tokamaks in China, India,…. Electricity Production ITER ETR/DEMO/PROTO Decision to proceed with tokamak-based fusion jor Facilities jor 14-MeV neutron source (Int’l) Ma Volumetric neutron source (?) Base Fusion Power Technologies chnologies Base Plasma Support technologies Fusion Te Fusion Programmatic Risks are Minimized by a Strong Base Stellarator/ICC Program ST, Stellarator, RFP, other ICCs LHD, W7-X, NCSX, TJ-II, ……. NSTX, MAST, …... Base Tokamak Physics physics ASDEX-UG, DIII-D, JT-60U (SU?), JET, CMOD, Tore Supra, FT-U, KSTAR, Plasma Plasma New SC Tokamaks in China, India,…. Electricity Production ITER ETR/DEMO/PROTO Decision to proceed with tokamak-based fusion jor Facilities jor 14-MeV neutron source (Int’l) Ma Volumetric neutron source (?) Base Fusion Power Technologies chnologies Base Plasma Support technologies Fusion Te Fusion ITER or a Sequence of Smaller Steps ? The key issue confronting development of the tokamak into an attractive reactor is sustaining an efficient steady-state (fBS > 70%) at high beta (βn > 3) and good confinement (HH > 1.5 @ q ~ 4.5). Control of such regimes must be demonstrated in a burning plasma under steady- state conditions (T >> τres). For this purpose, a device of the ITER class will be necessary before proceeding to ETR/Demo/Proto. Postponing the construction of ITER in favor of more modest steps only adds delay and cost to the possible realization of fusion energy. Ultimately an ITER-class machine must be successfully built and operated before An ETR/Demo/Proto -- Therefore risk is not reduced, only postponed. Does a Single Large Facility Imply Increased Risk? Short Answer: Yes, multiple large facilities would reduce risk, but this is not an option. Longer Answer: A sequence of smaller, possibly “safer” steps would entail lower risk, particularly with regard to investment. But finally an ITER class machine would be required before proceeding to ETR/DEMO/PROTO. Thus the risk is not reduced, only postponed. Risk can be “minimized” by aggressive, focussed R&D and maintaining strong tokamak, stellarator and ICC base programs (including theory and computation!) .

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Signature Redacted %
EXAMINATION OF THE UNITED STATES DOMESTIC FUSION PROGRAM ARCHW.$ By MASS ACHUSETTS INSTITUTE Lauren A. Merriman I OF IECHNOLOLGY MAY U6 2015 SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING I LIBR ARIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FEBRUARY 2015 Lauren A. Merriman. All Rights Reserved. - The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly Paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of Author:_ Signature redacted %. Lauren A. Merriman Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering May 22, 2014 Signature redacted Certified by:. Dennis Whyte Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering I'l f 'A Thesis Supervisor Signature redacted Accepted by: Richard K. Lester Professor and Head of the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering 1 EXAMINATION OF THE UNITED STATES DOMESTIC FUSION PROGRAM By Lauren A. Merriman Submitted to the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering on May 22, 2014 In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science in Nuclear Science and Engineering ABSTRACT Fusion has been "forty years away", that is, forty years to implementation, ever since the idea of harnessing energy from a fusion reactor was conceived in the 1950s. In reality, however, it has yet to become a viable energy source. Fusion's promise and failure are both investigated by reviewing the history of the United States domestic fusion program and comparing technological forecasting by fusion scientists, fusion program budget plans, and fusion program budget history.
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