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The Automotive Sector in Pakistan

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The Automotive Sector in Pakistan Final Report THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR IN PAKISTAN TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 9 1.1. Terms of Reference 9 1.2. History of the Sector 10 1.3. Review of Literature 12 CHAPTER 2: THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR 16 2.1. Coverage 16 2.2. Sizing of the Sector 16 2.3. Contribution To The Economy 26 2.4. Demand Analysis 32 CHAPTER 3: POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 34 3.1. TRIMS 34 3.2. Investment Policy 36 3.3. Trade Policies 38 3.4. Tariff Policy 39 3.5. Auto Industry Development Programme 43 3.6. Policy and Standards 44 CHAPTER 4: EXTENT OF EFFECTIVE PROTECTION 45 4.1. Methodology 45 4.2. Results 46 4.3. Recommendations on Tariff Reform 47 CHAPTER 5: ASSESSMENT OF COMPETITION IN THE SECTOR 52 5.1. Methodology for Assessing Degree of Competition 52 5.2. Measure of Extent of Competition 53 5.3. Assessment of Competition in the Automotive Sector 54 CHAPTER 6: PROFILE OF THE SAMPLE OF VENDORS 58 6.1. Objectives of the Survey 58 6.2. The Sample 58 6.3. Legal Status 61 ii 6.4. Membership of Associations 61 6.5. Investment and Capacity 62 6.6. Turnover 63 6.7. Employment 63 6.8. Cost Structure 64 6.9. Gross Profit and Value Added 64 CHAPTER 7: KEY ISSUES IN THE VENDING INDUSTRY 66 7.1. Impact of Tariff Protection 66 7.2. Extent of Competition 70 7.3. Degree of Competitiveness 71 7.4. Factors Influencing Growth 71 7.5. The Role of Government Regulation and Policies 72 7.6. Impact of Power Outages 74 CHAPTER 8: PAKISTAN’S TRADE IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR 75 8.1. Trade in the Automotive Sector 75 8.2. Factors Constraining Growth of Exports 78 8.3. Required Support 79 CHAPTER 9: PROSPECTS FOR INDO-PAK TRADE 80 9.1. The Automotive Sector of India 81 9.2. Extent of Trade Complementarity 84 9.3.Likely Pattern of Indo-Pak Trade 86 9.4. Perceptions of Trade with India 87 9.5. Possible Mitigation Measures 89 CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 91 10.1. Conclusions 91 10.2. Recommendations 97 APPENDICES 101 Appendix 1: Chronological History of the Automobile Industry 101 Appendix 2: Questionnaire for Autoparts Manufacturer 103 REFERENCES 114 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Indicators of Size of the Automotive Sector from the CMI of 2005-06 17 Table 2.2: Number of Units in 2011 According to Associations 18 Table 2.3: Reported Capacity of OEMs and Rates of Utilisation 18 Table 2.4: Estimated Levels of Production of Different Types of Vehicles, 2000-01 to 2010-11 21 Table 2.5: International Comparison of Production of Vehicles in Relation to Population 22 Table 2.6: Recent Trends in Prices of Cars, 2008 to 2012 23 Table 2.7: Estimated Turnover in 2009-10 in Different Sub-sectors 24 Table 2.8: Increase in Number of Motor Cycles on Road and Annual Sales 25 Table 2.9: Imports by the Automotive Sector, 2005-06 to 2010-11 25 Table 2.10: Total Exports by Automotive Sector, 2005-06 to 2010-11 26 Table 2.11: Estimated Investment in the Automotive Sector, 2000-01 to 2009-10 26 Table 2.12: Estimated Value Added by the Automotive Sector, 2009-10 27 Table 2.13: Estimated Employment in the Automotive Sector, 2009-10 28 Table 2.14: Estimated Revenue Contribution by the Automotive Sector, 2009-10 29 Table 2.15: Estimated Foreign Exchange Savings due to the Automotive Sector, 2009- 10 30 Table 2.16: Summary of the Key Indicators of the Size and Contribution to the 31 Economy by the Automotive Sector Table 2.17: International Comparison of the Contribution to the Economy by the 32 Automotive Sector, 2010 Table 2.18: Short-Run Elasticities of Demand of Different Types of Vehicles 33 Table 3.1: Governing SROs 41 Table 3.2 SRO 693: Levy of Additional Duty on Automotive Sector 42 Table 4.1: Duty Structure on Automotive Sector (During 2011-12) 48 Table 4.2 Effective Protection Rates 50 Table 4.3: Proposed Tariff Structure in Automotive Sector 51 Table 5.1: Magnitude of HHI, 2010-11 54 Table 5.2: Trends in Profitability of OEMs and Autoparts Manufacturers 56 Table 6.1: Legal Status of Vendors and OEMs 61 Table 6.2: Investment and Capacity of Sampled Vendors 62 Table 6.3: Annual Turnover of Sample Vendor Units 63 Table 6.4: Average Employment by Type in Sample Vendor Units 63 Table 6.5: Labour Productivity in Sample Vendor Units 64 Table 6.6: Average Share of the Main Cost Components in Sample Vendors 64 Table 6.7: Gross Profits of the Sample Vendor Units 65 Table 6.8: Share of Value Added in Turnover 65 Table 7.1: Estimated Level of Employment in the Vending Industry 66 Table 7.2: Percentage of Sample Vendors by Type of Production Process 67 iv Table 7.3: Presence of Quality Assurance Measures in Sample Vendors 68 Table 7.4: Establishment of Quality Control Procedures by Sample Vendors 68 Table 7.5: Percentage of Sample Vendors with Quality Control 69 Table 7.6: Main Constraints to Improvement of Quality by Sample Vendors 70 Table 7.7: Vendors Share in Supply of Parts 70 Table 7.8: Main Factors Contributing to Vendors' Growth 72 Table 7.9: Government Agencies Approached for Approval of Imports 72 Table 7.10: Impact of Government Regulations on Growth of Sample Vendors 73 Table 7.11: Support Required from Government to Produce Higher Technology 73 Products Table 7.12: Implications of Power Outage 74 Table 8.1: Composition of Pakistan’s Imports and Exports of Automotive Products, 76 2009-10 Table 8.2: Origins of Major Imports of Pakistan of Automotive Products 77 Table 8.3: Destination of Major Exports by Pakistan of Automotive Products 77 Table 8.4: Support Required for Establishing Export Market 79 Table 9.1: Volume of Trade in the Automotive Sector of India 81 Table 9.2: Automobile Production Statistics by Country 82 Table 9.3: Index of Production of Vehicles in India 82 Table 9.4: Composition of India’s Exports and Imports of Automotive Products 83 Table 9.5: Index of Trade Complementarity between Pakistan’s Imports and Indian 85 Exports of Automotive Products Table 9.6: Index of Trade Complementarity between Indian’s Imports and Pakistan’s 86 Exports of Automotive Products Table 9.7: Landed Prices of ‘Potential’ Indian Exports of Automobile Products to 88 Pakistan and Domestic Prices LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.1: Two Protection Scenarios 44 LIST OF CHARTS Chart 2.1 Range of Automobile Products in Pakistan 19 Chart 2.2: Major Joint Ventures for Automobiles 20 Chart 2.3: Vendor Industry Technical Collaboration 22 Chart 6.1: Listing of Sampled Vendors, Type of Autoparts Produced and Listing of Sample OEMs 59 LIST OF BOXES Box 2.1: The Autovending Industry of Pakistan 21 Box 3.1: TRIMS Content 34 v LIST OF ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area AIDC Automotive Industry Development Committee AIDP Automotive Industry Development Programme AIIP Auto Industry Investment Policy APMA Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations CBU Completely Built-up CC&I Chamber of Commerce and Industries CCP Competition Commission of Pakistan CD Customs Duty CGOs Customs General Orders CIF Cost, Insurance, Freight CKD Completely Knocked Down CMI Census of Manufacturing Industries CNG Compressed Natural Gas CPI Consumer Price Index CSF Competitiveness Support Fund DFID Department for International Development EDB Engineering Development Board EPO Export Policy Order EPZs Export Processing Zone ERP Effective Rate of Protection ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific FBR Federal Board of Revenue FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIAT Fabbrica Italiana Automobili Torino GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP Gross Domestic Product GoP Government of Pakistan HHI Herfindahl–Hirshman Index HP Horse Power HRD Human Resource Development HS Harmonised System IES Indian Engineering Services IPO Import Policy Order IPR Investment Promotion Regulations ISDP Industry Specific Deletion Programme ISO International Standards Organization 1 ITC Index of Trade Complementarity ITP International Trade Price JVs Joint Ventures LCVs Light Commercial Vehicles LUMS Lahore University of Management Sciences M/C Motor Cycle MFN Most Favoured Nation MNC Multinational Company MOC Ministry of Commerce MoIP Ministry of Industries and Production NEQS National Environmental Quality Standards OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OEMs Original Equipment Manufacturer OICA Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers) OLS Ordinary Least Squares PAAPAM Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts & Accessories Manufacturers PACCS Pakistan Automated Customs Clearance Systems PACO Pakistan Automobile Corporation PAII Productive Asset Investment Incentive PAMA Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association PCT Pakistan Customs Tariff PEC Pakistan Engineering Council PES Pakistan Economic Survey PIM Pakistan Institute of Management POL Pakistan Oilfields Limited PSQCA Pakistan Standard Quality Control Authority R&D Research and Development SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SBP State Bank of Pakistan SKD Semi-Knocked Down Units SMEDA Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority SMEs Small and Medium Scale Enterprises SPEL Synthetic Products Enterprises Limited SROs Statutory Rules and Orders ST Sales Tax TASS Technology Acquisition Support Scheme TBS Tariff Based System TDAP Trade Development Authority of Pakistan TEVTA Technical Education & Vocational Training Authority TIR Transports Internationaux Routiers (International Road Transport) 2 TOR Terms of Reference TRIMs Trade Related Investment Measures TTC Telecommunications Technology Committee UAE United Arab Emirates UK United Kingdom USA United States of America USAID United States Agency for International Development VDTC Vendor Development & Technical Cell WDI World Development Indicators WTO World Trade Organisation 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.
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