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Assessment of Streamflow and Water Quality in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado, 1992–2018

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Assessment of Streamflow and Water Quality in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado, 1992–2018 Prepared in cooperation with Upper Yampa River Watershed Group, Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Yampa-White- Green Basin Roundtable, Mount Werner Water and Sanitation District, Routt County, Colorado, and the city of Steamboat Springs, Colorado Assessment of Streamflow and Water Quality in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado, 1992–2018 By Natalie K. Day i Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 9 Purpose and Scope ................................................................................................................................. 12 Previous Studies ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Description of the Study Area .................................................................................................................. 13 Hydrology and Water Use.................................................................................................................... 15 Approach and Methods ................................................................................................................................ 17 Data Compilation and Quality Assurance ................................................................................................ 18 Extension of Streamflow Record .............................................................................................................. 20 Streamflow Trend Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 22 Concentration and Load Estimates .......................................................................................................... 23 Comparison to Interim Concentrations for Water-Quality Standards ....................................................... 25 Normalized Mean Daily Streamflows, Loads, and Yields ......................................................................... 26 Concentration and Load Trend Analysis .................................................................................................. 27 Multiple Linear Regression Trend Analysis .......................................................................................... 27 Weighted Regression Trend Analysis .................................................................................................. 28 Stagecoach Reservoir ............................................................................................................................. 29 Changes in Land Use .............................................................................................................................. 30 Assessment of Streamflow and Water Quality ............................................................................................. 30 Streamflow Trends ................................................................................................................................... 31 Concentration Estimates and Comparisons to Interim Concentrations for Water-Quality Standards ....... 35 Regression Equation Variable Coefficients and Statistical Diagnostics ................................................... 36 Suspended Sediment .......................................................................................................................... 42 Nitrogen ............................................................................................................................................... 44 Phosphorus ......................................................................................................................................... 46 Load Estimation and Streamflow-Normalized Load and Yield Analysis ................................................... 49 Suspended Sediment .......................................................................................................................... 49 Nitrogen ............................................................................................................................................... 51 Phosphorus ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Concentration and Load Trend Analysis .................................................................................................. 52 Suspended Sediment .......................................................................................................................... 53 Nitrogen ............................................................................................................................................... 53 Phosphorus ......................................................................................................................................... 55 Stagecoach Reservoir Water Quality and Algae ...................................................................................... 56 Changes in Land Use .............................................................................................................................. 60 Synthesis of Streamflow and Water-Quality Results ................................................................................ 62 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 69 Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................... 75 References Cited ......................................................................................................................................... 75 1 Figures Figure 1. Map showing the location of the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado, with selected U.S. Geological Survey water-quality sampling sites and water year 2018 streamgage sites. .............................. 9 Figure 2. Map showing Cretaceous-aged sandstones, shales, and major coal beds of the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado. Modified from Tweto (1979) and Kirschbaum and Biewick (2000). (USGS, U.S. Geological Survey) ...................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 3. Graph showing the mean monthly streamflow, in cubic feet per second, at selected streamgage sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado (CO), for water years 2013 through 2018. ... 16 Figure 4. Graphs showing changes in 1-day maximum, mean, and 7-day minimum streamflow statistics at five main stem Yampa River sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin from climate years 1992 to 2018. A, Yampa River above Stagecoach Reservoir, Colorado (CO). B, Yampa River below Stagecoach Reservoir, CO. C, Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, CO. D, Yampa River above Elkhead Creek near Hayden, CO. E, Yampa River below Craig, CO. ............................................................................................................... 31 Figure 5. Graphs showing changes in 1-day maximum, mean, and 7-day minimum streamflow statistics for various time periods at 3 tributary sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin and 1 Yampa River main stem site. A, Tributary site Fish Creek near Steamboat Springs, Colorado (CO) (climate years [CYs] 1992–2018). B, Tributary site Elk River near Milner, CO (CYs 1992–2018). C, Tributary site Elkhead Creek above Long Gulch near Hayden, CO (CYs 1996–2018). D, Yampa River main stem site Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, CO (CYs 1910–2018). ................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 6. Graph showing the temporal deviation from the mean peak streamflow date at Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, CO, for water years 1910–2018. ............................................................................. 32 Figure 7. Boxplots of discrete and model-estimated daily mean concentrations of suspended sediment at five sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado (CO), on a monthly basis for water years 2010–18. “Discrete concentration” refers to the uncensored discrete data. “Discrete (<) concentration” refers to concentrations less than (<) the method detection limit. .............................................................................. 44 Figure 8. Boxplots of discrete and model-estimated daily mean concentrations of Kjeldahl nitrogen at eight sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado (CO), for various starting water years through water year 2018. “Discrete concentration” refers to the uncensored discrete data. (CDPHE, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment) .............................................................................................................. 45 Figure 9. Boxplots of discrete concentrations of total nitrogen at eight sites in the Upper Yampa River Basin, Colorado (CO), for various starting water years through water year 2018. “Discrete concentration” refers to the uncensored discrete data. “Discrete (<) concentration” refers to values less than (<) the method detection limit. “Discrete (E) concentration” refers to values between the laboratory reporting limit and
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