China As a Hybrid Influencer: Non-State Actors As State Proxies COI HYBRID INFLUENCE COI
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Hybrid CoE Research Report 1 JUNE 2021 China as a hybrid influencer: Non-state actors as state proxies COI HYBRID INFLUENCE COI JUKKA AUKIA Hybrid CoE Hybrid CoE Research Report 1 China as a hybrid influencer: Non-state actors as state proxies JUKKA AUKIA 3 Hybrid CoE Research Reports are thorough, in-depth studies providing a deep understanding of hybrid threats and phenomena relating to them. Research Reports build on an original idea and follow academic research report standards, presenting new research findings. They provide either policy-relevant recommendations or practical conclusions. COI Hybrid Influence looks at how state and non-state actors conduct influence activities targeted at Participating States and institutions, as part of a hybrid campaign, and how hostile state actors use their influence tools in ways that attempt to sow instability, or curtail the sovereignty of other nations and the independence of institutions. The focus is on the behaviours, activities, and tools that a hostile actor can use. The goal is to equip practitioners with the tools they need to respond to and deter hybrid threats. COI HI is led by the UK. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats tel. +358 400 253 800 www.hybridcoe.fi ISBN (web) 978-952-7282-78-6 ISBN (print) 978-952-7282-79-3 ISSN 2737-0860 June 2021 Hybrid CoE is an international hub for practitioners and experts, building Participating States’ and institutions’ capabilities and enhancing EU-NATO cooperation in countering hybrid threats, located in Helsinki, Finland. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. 4 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 INTRODUCTION 9 CHINA’S STRATEGIC CULTURE 10 Evolution of party supremo paradigms 10 From Maoism to the ‘peaceful rise’ of Hu 10 The assertive worldview of Xi 11 CCP strategic language 12 International narrative 12 Domestic discourse 12 Chinese exceptionalism 13 Indirect warfare in strategic thinking 14 Conclusion 15 CHINA’S DOMESTIC FRAMEWORK 17 The Party and civil society 17 The united front strategy 18 State-controlled economy after 1995 19 Media “going out” policies since 2009 20 The 2016 NGO reforms 21 National Intelligence Law of 2017 22 Conclusion 22 NON-STATE ACTORS ABROAD 23 United front-related actors 23 State-controlled enterprises 24 State-organized NGOs 25 Media 25 Academia and think tanks 26 Online and digital actors 27 Chinese and non-Chinese individuals 27 Conclusion 28 CONCLUDING REMARKS 29 5 6 Executive summary This Hybrid CoE Research Report applies the “united front” (tongyi zhanxian). Equating “love for hybrid threat paradigm to study Chinese non- the Party” with “love for the country”, the united state actors (NSA). It explores underlying Chinese front builds ethnic-based nationalism that is pro- drivers, elements of strategic culture, and societal duced top-down by party elites and bottom-up by developments that support the use of proxy NSAs. active patriotic elements. It also discusses the hybrid threat activity of Chi- As a result of the united front approach, a large nese NSAs that function as state proxies, as well as repertoire of NSAs as state proxies create oppor- various circumstances in which proxies are used tunities and capabilities for the Party. While the to achieve China’s policy goals. united front structures are the framework through As a hybrid influencer, China emphasizes asym- which these activities are carried out, successful metric, indirect, and pre-emptive strategies, includ- domestic experiences provide the context for ing the use of proxy NSAs, and China’s strategic CCP overseas influence. thinking favours realist approaches in international Under Xi Jinping, the political control of the affairs. Given that regime preservation remains the Party has advanced in all non-state, non-party primary objective of the ruling Communist Party organizations. The CCP has effectively developed (CCP), the CCP perceives foreign ideological influ- capacities to direct the non-state sector to sup- ence and domestic instability as existential threats. port regime preservation. Constant interactions, China effectively challenges the current interna- and manipulative and coercive tactics, produce tional order through political warfare, deception, dynamic interrelationships between the Party and and control over information. the non-state sector. The strategic culture in China is built on a com- Given its prior domestic experience in ambig- bination of superiority, vulnerability and griev- uous coercive tactics, the CCP is able to organize ance, coalescing into a culture of rivalry. Due to and sustain proxy NSAs in the international setting. vast resources, increasing international influence, The united front enables the Party to use the same and new technological tools, China is well placed influence tools domestically and internationally. As to pose threats and insecurity to liberal democ- Chinese social and business organizations continue racies. Through co-opting NSAs, the CCP is able to internationalize, the blurring of state and non- to exploit existing power hierarchies and seams in state sectors extends beyond China’s borders. democratic societies. This gives China an asymmet- The practices created inside China effectively ric advantage over democratic states and allows have an international impact. They guide the way the Party to advance its strategic agenda below the Chinese entities behave for internal reasons and threshold of conflict escalation. dictate the kinds of interactions they engage in with foreign actors. Chinese proxy NSAs are capa- •• ble of manipulating the threshold of detectabil- ity and enhancing the problem of attribution and Rather than conscious policy choices, longstanding response activation for democratic states. developments in China’s political system and think- At the policy level, the CCP defines an extrater- ing dictate strong public-private cooperation. This ritorial ethnic-based nation-state (zhonghua minzu), whole-of-society approach is literally known as the including Taiwan and the diaspora, belonging under 7 China’s control. If successful, this grants the CCP as well as the ways in which these influence extraterritorial reach. At the operational level, the security-related behaviour and policies, both CCP co-opts members of the transnational ethnic domestically and internationally. communities to a common national cause defined by the Party and characterized by a shared sense 2) Democratic societies should continue to raise of victimhood. awareness within the larger public and among state and non-state actors. Further develop- •• ment of investment screening mechanisms and stricter scrutiny of Party-backed cultural The interdependent relations and overlapping and academic initiatives should also continue. interests of Chinese state and non-state sectors Demands for transparency (organizational/ complicate the identification of proxy NSAs. Even if financial), rule of law, and accountability should the dilemma of attribution is resolved, an effective be further strengthened. response is difficult to formulate. The use of proxy NSAs is likely a result of the development of Chi- Democratic responses should also make use of civil na’s domestic traditions as much as a current anal- society and the open civic culture as democratic ysis of democratic weaknesses. Countermeasures force multipliers. In countering hybrid threats, should thus be considered within two frameworks: the democratic non-state sector (press, academia, 1) the domestic experiences of the CCP, and 2) the NGOs, social media companies) possesses capabil- vulnerabilities of democratic societies. ities to develop effective responses. When conflict escalation is a concern for state actors, civil soci- 1) Given that the CCP utilizes its successful ety can be effectively utilized. Supporting an open domestic experiences internationally, studying and robust civil society, as well as coordination China’s internal developments allows conclu- between state and non-state actors should sions to be drawn on how it conducts itself be included in the democratic countermeasure abroad. This highlights the need for careful toolbox. academic research and analysis. The united Finally, analyses of NSAs, as well as response front strategy effectively informs China’s hybrid formulations, should take into consideration that threat activities. Consequently, gaining an not all Chinese NSAs are state proxies, or agents understanding of them is vital when consid- of the CCP. Democratic inclusion and “targeting” ering countermeasures. Studies should address of the Chinese diaspora in democracy promotion developments in Chinese strategic culture, is vital. 8 Introduction The accelerating rivalry between China and the US particularly apt to exploit weaknesses in demo- indicates an increasing polarization of international cratic societies. affairs. While regime preservation remains the In light of this, an understanding of China’s highest priority of the ruling Chinese Communist NSA-related behaviour and the identification of Party (CCP), the CCP regards domestic instabil- NSA-related activity is vital for democratic states ity and conflict with foreign ideological influence, in countering hybrid threats. The aim of this including liberal international norms, as an existen- Research Report is therefore twofold: 1) to pro- tial problem. vide an overview of the main NSAs associated Along with other authoritarian hybrid aggres- with the Chinese state, and 2) to discuss the use of