Investor Update February 2018
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Investor Update February 2018 NYSE: PSX www.phillips66.com Lake Charles Refinery Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to the operations of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP (including their respective joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about these entities, their interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in filings that Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP make with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP are under no obligation (and expressly disclaim any such obligation) to update or alter these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of the websites of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP. 1 Diversified Downstream Company Marketing & Midstream Chemicals Refining Specialties Integrated Midstream 50% Interest in CPChem Diversified Refining Portfolio Stable, High-return Network Businesses Location Advantaged Investing in Quick Payout Pursue Organic and M&A Chemicals Portfolio Projects Enhancing U.S. Fuels Opportunities Brands USGC Petchem Project Footprint Offers Opportunities PSXP as a Funding Vehicle Nearing Completion for Midstream Growth 2 Executing Strategy Leading Operating Excellence Growth CPChem USGC Petrochemicals Project Phillips 66 Partners Bakken Pipeline Beaumont Terminal Sweeny Hub Returns Refinery yield and feedstock flexibility projects U.S. marketing reimaging Distributions 30% dividend CAGR since September 2012 $10.4 B in total share repurchases/exchanges High-Performing Organization Vacuum Tower, Billings Refinery, Billings, MT See appendix for footnotes. 3 Operating Excellence Total Recordable Rates Refining Environmental Metrics (Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked) (No. of events) Industry Average ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 317 302 279 264 240 Phillips 66 CPChem DCP Midstream 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Operating Costs and SG&A Refining Capacity Utilization ($B) (%) Adjusted Op. Costs and SG&A Turnaround Costs Planned Maintenance & Turnarounds 5% 3% 4% 5% 2% 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.8 93% 94% 91% 96% 95% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 See appendix for footnotes. 4 Environmental, Social, Governance Extensive ESG engagement Industry Safety Metrics (Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked) 6 Board engaged in setting company ESG strategy 4 2 Record low reportable environmental events 0 Agricul., Food All Construction Prof. Petroleum Petchem. Phillips 66 Crop Manufact. Manufact. & Bus. Refining Manufact. Investing in forward-looking research and Prod. Services development technology Phillips 66 SOx, NOx, PM Emissions (Thousand tons) Promoting inclusive and diverse workforce 30 Committed to corporate and local 25 philanthropic programs 20 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 See appendix for footnotes. 5 U.S. Crude Oil and Gas Plant NGL Production Source: I.H.S., April 2017 6 Midstream Macro Environment U.S. Crude Oil Export Volume (MMBD) U.S. Clean Product Exports (MMBD) 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U.S. LPG Export Volume (MMBD) Phillips 66 Export Capacity (MMBD) 1.2 1.5 Propane Butane 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 Thousands 0.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Clean Products Crude LPG Total Source: EIA, annual averages data through October 2017, Petroleum Monthly 7 Chemicals Macro Environment U.S. Ethane Demand Global PE Capacity and Demand (MMBD) (MMTA) 2.5 Exports 150 Capacity Base Ethane Petchem & Price-sensitive Demand 2.0 Flexible Feedstock 100 1.5 1.0 50 0.5 0.0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: I.H.S., April 2017 8 Refining Macro Environment Global Clean Product Demand (MMBD) Global clean product demand 70 Diesel expected to grow Jet Gasoline 60 Global utilization rates expected in 50 low-80s, with U.S. refining in low-90s 40 30 Strong U.S. utilization due to cost and 20 reliability advantages, and growing export demand 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: I.H.S., April 2017 9 Integrated Midstream Network 10 Midstream 2018E Annual Year-End Run-Rate Adjusted EBITDA Platform for growth ($B) 1.8 – 2.0 Focus on NGL value chain Expand crude and products 0.6 PSX export capability PSX PSXP 2018E year-end run-rate PSXPPSXP 1.0 1.1 adjusted EBITDA $1.1 B Assets Online Growth Market Total See appendix for footnotes. 11 Phillips 66 Partners Distribution Growth Funding Midstream growth (cents/unit) Organic growth opportunities Sand Hills Pipeline expansions (TX) Bayou Bridge Pipeline extension (LA) Lake Charles Isomerization Unit (LA) 67.8 64.6 61.5 55.8 58.6 50.5 53.1 31% distribution CAGR 2013-2017 45.8 48.1 42.8 37.0 40.0 31.7 34.0 27.4 30.2 Top quartile growth post-2018 21.3 22.5 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 201320132014201420142014201520152015201520162016201620162017201720172017 12 DCP Midstream DJ Basin Well positioned in low-cost supply basins 0.9 Bcf/d processing capacity Strong growth projects around existing footprint Sand Hills NGL Pipeline expansions to 365 MBD in 1Q 2018, 450 MBD in 2H 2018 Permian Mid-continent DJ Basin gathering and processing infrastructure 1.3 Bcf/d 1.8 Bcf/d processing processing expansions of ~200 MMCFD in 3Q 2018 with capacity capacity another ~200 MMCFD in service mid 2019 Gulf Coast Express Permian 1.9 BCFD natural gas JV pipeline expected in service 4Q 2019 Stable distributions to LP unit holders and South resumed distributions to owners 2.6 Bcf/d processing capacity 13 Feedstock Advantaged Chemicals Portfolio Worldwide U.S. Gulf Net Ethylene Coast Capacity: 4,810 kMTA U.S. Net Ethylene Capacity: 3,685 kMTA Middle East Saudi Net Ethylene Qatar Capacity: Arabia 1,125 kMTA 14 Chemicals Outlook 2018E Average Ethylene Production Cost Curve Middle East ethane and North ($/Ton) America NGLs remain positioned at the low end of the cost curve Asia Coal 1,000 M.E. Naphtha N.A. W. Asia LPG Ethylene demand growth outpacing Europe Naphtha LPG W. Asia Europe N.A. global GDP Naphtha Naphtha 500 LPG M.E. LPG N.A. Ethane Expect demand growth to rapidly M.E. Ethane balance new capacity additions 0 0 50 100 150 200 Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons Source: I.H.S., December 2017. 15 CPChem USGC Petrochemicals Project 1,000 kMTA polyethylene at Old Ocean, TX Started operations 3Q 2017 1,500 kMTA ethylene at Cedar Bayou, TX Mechanical completion 4Q 2017 Commissioning 1Q 2018 Long-term mid-cycle EBITDA ~ $1.2-1.4 B Additional projects in future years Cash flow improvement expected in 2018 following heavy investment cycle CPChem USGC Ethane Cracker, Cedar Bayou, TX EBITDA estimate is on a CPChem 100% basis and is based on July 2017 IHS forecast premises. 16 Enhancing Returns in Refining and Marketing 17 Refining Improving returns PSX Global Clean Product Yield Billings heavy crude project (2Q 2017) Ponca City yield flexibility (4Q 2017) 85.5% 84.6% 84.1% 84.4% 84.6% Wood River FCC modernization (2Q 2018) Bayway FCC modernization (2Q 2018) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lake Charles crude flexibility (2H 2018) U.S. Refining Capacity Utilization ~ 25 other low-cost, high-return projects Increasing clean product yield 88% 93% 90% 94% 91% 91% 90% 96% 91% 95% Top tier refinery utilization rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U.S. Industry Average Phillips 66 See appendix for footnotes. 18 Marketing and Specialties Stable, high-return businesses Marketing Enhancing U.S. fuels brands 3% volume uplift at reimaged sites Adding 25-30 European sites per year Expanding brand licensing Providing ratable refinery off-take Specialties Increasing value through integration, optimization, and product innovation 19 Capital Structure Equity and Debt Investment-grade credit ratings 27.4 23.9 23.7 PSX – BBB+ / A3 30% 22.4 22.0 27% 27% PSXP – BBB / Baa3 28% 22% 26% 25% 22% 21% 10.1 10.1 Nearly $9 B of total liquidity 8.6 8.9 6.1 ~3.5x Debt/EBITDA target at PSXP 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PSX Equity $B PSX Debt $B PSX Noncontrolling Interest PSXP Third-party Debt $B Attributable to PSXP $B Consolidated Debt-to-Capital PSX Debt-to-Capital, excluding PSXP 20 Capital Allocation Maintain financial strength, strong 2015 – 2017 investment-grade credit rating Fund sustaining capital expenditures Pay a growing, secure and competitive Distributions dividend Reinvestment 60% reinvestment and 40% shareholder distributions See appendix for footnotes. 21 Capital Expenditures Consolidated Capital Expenditures 2018E Consolidated – $2.3 B ($B) 5.8 Phillips 66 2018E – $1.7 B $0.8 B Growth 3.8 2.8 $0.9 B Sustaining 2.3 1.8 1.8 Phillips 66 Partners 2018E – $0.6 B 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E PSX PSXP 2015 consolidated capital expenditures of $5.8 billion include $1.5 billion investment in DCP Midstream.