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Avoiding the Resource Curse Avoiding the Resource Curse Assessing patterns of causality between resource management potential and democratic deficits in neopatrimonial oil countries A case study from Uganda Eyvind J. Schumacher Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Philosophy in Culture, Environment and Sustainability Centre for Development and the Environment University of Oslo Blindern, Norway May 2014 II Table of Contents ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................ IX 1. CENTRAL RESEARCH QUESTION. .................................................................................... 1 2. INTRODUCTION AND RATIONALE. .................................................................................. 3 3. METHODOLOGY. .................................................................................................................. 13 3.1 AN INTERDISIPLINARY APROACH............................................................................................ 16 3.2 THE CASE STUDY APPROACH .................................................................................................. 17 3.3 COMPARATIVE STUDY ............................................................................................................ 20 3.4 INTERVIEWS ........................................................................................................................... 22 3.4.1 Interviewee list: ........................................................................................................... 23 3.5 CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF TEXTS, SPEECHES AND THE DISCOURSE THEY PROMOTE. ................... 24 3.6 METHODS SUMMARY AND REFLECTION ON OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES DURING MY FIELDWORK. ..................................................................................................................................... 25 4. LITERATURE REVIEW / THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK. .......................................... 29 5. THE CASE ................................................................................................................................ 39 6. BRIEF ACCOUNT OF UGANDA’S POLITICAL HISTORY. ........................................... 45 6.1 INDEPENDENCE ...................................................................................................................... 46 6.2 NORTHERN DOMINATION. OBOTE, AMIN AND OBOTE II. ........................................................ 48 6.3 THE AGE OF MUSEVENI. ......................................................................................................... 50 7. THE PARADOX OF PLENTY. ............................................................................................. 61 7.1 POLITICAL CORUPTION. .......................................................................................................... 66 7.2 THE DUTCH DISEASE. ............................................................................................................. 69 7.3 WHITE ELEPHANTS. ................................................................................................................ 70 7.4 OBSTUCTION OF POLITICAL PLURALISM. ................................................................................ 72 7.5 PETRO-VIOLENCE. .................................................................................................................. 75 8. TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS IN A COMPARATIVE NORTH-SOUTH PERSPECTIVE. ................................................................................................................................. 77 8.1 RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND PETROLEUM AID. ................................................................. 77 III 8.2 TRANSFORMATIVE POLITICS AND THE POTENTIAL OF NORWEGIAN PETROLEUM AID. ............ 83 8.3 BARRIERS AND POTENTIALS FOR DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH. 88 9. GOVERNANCE, THE KEY TO SUCCESS. ........................................................................ 97 9.1 ELITE CRAFTING OF DEMOCRACY. ......................................................................................... 97 9.2 THE SEQUENCING PARADIGM. ............................................................................................. 100 10. DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT. ........................................................................ 105 10.1 THE POLITICS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT .............................................................. 107 10.2 THE IMPACT OF “ENVRIONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESMENTS” ........................................... 118 11. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 123 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................................ 129 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................................... 141 ILLUSTRATIONS ............................................................................................................................. 141 INTERVIEW GUIDE .......................................................................................................................... 143 IV Acknowledgements The completion of this master thesis was only possible as a result of intellectual input and support by many people. Firstly, I want to thank my outstandingly knowledgeable and sympathetic supervisor Desmond McNeill for his time, patience and constructive tutoring. I also want to thank the whole Centre for Development and Environment (SUM) for the opportunity to participate in this master program and for the knowledge I have gained through it. In regard to that, I also want to thank the Institute of Political Science (ISV) where I spent most of the spring semester 2013, and got the opportunity to immerse myself in the basis of democracy and democratization assessments; which were so important to my theoretical framework. I also want to thank my fellow students, both at SUM and ISV. It has been a privilege to spend two years with such inspiring and international groups of people. I also want to thank my interviewees and everyone who supported me and kept me safe during my fieldwork in Kampala. Due to the political situation, I don’t mention any names, but I am very thankful to each and every one of you. You all showed me the very best of Ugandan hospitality. I also want to thank WSP Natlikan, for the opportunity to have a flexible job, which has catered for my economic needs while writing my thesis. Last but not least, I have to thank two important people, my wife and my mom. It would not have been possible to finish this master thesis on time while at the same time be working as an environmental consultant and having a baby had it not been for the support from the two of you. This Master-thesis is dedicated to my biggest inspiration; my wonderful daughter Christine. “For magnificence, for variety of form and color, for profusion of brilliant life - plant, bird, insect, reptile, beast - for vast scale ... Uganda is truly the pearl of Africa. " - Sir Winston Churchill, My African Journey. V List of abbreviations and acronyms CIA = Central Intelligence Agency DRC = Democratic Republic of Congo DP= Democratic Party GDP= Gross Domestic Product HDI = Human development Index HRW=Human Rights Watch KY = Kabaka Yekka : Monarchist political party, representing the Kabaka of Buganda. Banned by Obote. LGBT= Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgendered MEMD = Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development NEMA= National Environment Management Authority NORAD= Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NPS = No Party System NRA= National Resistance Army NRM=National Resistance Movement OfD= Oil for Development PB= Participatory Budgeting POMB = Public Order Management Bill SEA = Strategic Environmental Assessments UN = United Nations UPC = Uganda People’s Congress = Political Party dominated by Northern tribes. UWA=Uganda Wildlife Authority VI Ugandan names and expressions Baganda = Tribe, plural, people from the Buganda Kingdom, of Bantu ethnicity. Banyankole (Ankole)= President Yoweri Museveni’s tribe. A tribe from Western Uganda of Bantu ethnicity. Shares language and cultural familiarity with the group previously known as Tutsi in neighboring country Rwanda. Buganda = Kingdom in Central Uganda. Bunyoro = Kingdom in Albetrtine Graben. Bantu ethnicity, but with a history of conflicts with Buganda. Kabaka = King of Buganda The New Vision = Uganda’s biggest newspaper, government owned, often accused of being a propaganda channel for Yoweri Museveni and the NRM. Daily circulation of around 32,399 (Audit Bureau of Circulations of South Africa). The Daily Monitor = Uganda’s biggest independent newspaper, owned by Aga Khan’s Kenyan Media group, Nation Media Group. Daily Circulation of around 21,456 (Audit Bureau of Circulations of South Africa). VII MAP OF ALBERTINE GRABEN Source: Heritage Oil [online]. –URL http://www.heritageoilplc.com/images/maps/Uganda%20Map%2013.4-300.jpg VIII Abstract As Uganda is about to start exploiting its petroleum reservoirs, it is apparent that there is a genuine fear of it becoming the next country on the list of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa suffering from a “resource curse”. Many arrows are pointing in the wrong direction when it comes to democratization and civil liberties. Still, the Norwegian petroleum aid program “Oil for Development” (OfD)
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