Grønlandsudvalget 2015-16 GRU Alm.del Bilag 4 Offentligt October 5, 2015 Project Newport LUFTHAVNSUDVIDELSE I ILULISSAT – UDVALGTE RAPPORTER Foretræde for Folketingets Grønlandsudvalg – Onsdag d. 7/10-2015 25-01-2013 October 5, 2015 GRØNLANDS ØKONOMI 2015 Project Newport Grønlands Økonomi 2015 Resumé • ”Økonomien er fortsat meget sårbar og stærkt afhængig af udviklingen inden for fiskeriet. Trods faldende mængder har en gunstig prisudvikling på fisk og skaldyr haft stor betydning for at understøtte den økonomiske udvikling. En ugunstig udvikling i priserne i fiskeriet vil hurtigt kunne skabe store økonomiske problemer.” • ”Mindsket sårbarhed forudsætter et bredere erhvervsgrundlag, som realistisk må baseres på energi- og råstofforekomsterne samt udnyttelse af turismepotentialer. ” • ” Arbejdsløsheden er høj, og hovedårsagen er strukturelle forhold, herunder særligt manglende kvalifikationer, geografiske forhold og problemer med incitamenterne til at søge arbejde. De senere år har konjunkturudviklingen været med til at forstærke arbejdsløshedsproblemet.” • ”Konjunkturbetinget ledighed kan i et vist omfang modvirkes via offentlige anlægsinvesteringer, såfremt den ledige arbejdskraft kan anvendes inden for bygge-og anlægssektoren, og anlægsaktiviteterne kan iværksættes afstemt efter konjunktursituationen. ” • ” Ifølge forslaget til finanslov 2016 ventes der et underskud på de offentlige finanser (DA-saldoen) på ca. 65 mio. kr. i 2015 og et i samme størrelsesorden for 2016 og 2017. I 2018 og 2019 forventes et overskud, så de offentlige finanser samlet over perioden 2016 til 2019 vil være i balance. • ” Tidligere finanslove har haft en tilsvarende profil for de offentlige finanser, hvor fremtidige reformer skulle sikre overskud på de offentlige finanser. Imidlertid er disse tiltage blevet udskudt og det har skabt en tendens med underskud på de offentlige finanser. ” • ”Økonomisk Råd vurderer hvert år holdbarhedsproblemet i lyset af nye data, ændringer i den økonomiske politik m.m. Størrelsen af holdbarhedsproblemet er stort set uændret i forhold til tidligere vurderinger, hvilket understreger behovet for reformer. ” 2 FREMME AF KOMMERCIELT ERHVERVSSAMARBEJDE MELLEM GRØNLAND October 5, 2015 Project Newport OG DANMARK Fremme af kommercielt erhvervssamarbejde mellem Grønland og Danmark Resumé • ”Grønland står over for betydelige økonomiske udfordringer, herunder et voksende strukturelt underskud på de offentlige finanser. Der er behov for, at forbedre de offentlige finanser med op mod 0,9 mia. kr. hvert år frem mod 2040 for at sikre balance mellem udgifter og indtægter.” • ”Der er derfor behov for reformer samt ny vækst og erhvervsudvikling, der kan skabe arbejdspladser og øgede indkomster...” • ”Visionen er et Grønland, hvor fiskerisektoren hånd i hånd med mineindustri, turisme og andre erhverv danner basis for en bæredygtig samfundsøkonomisk udvikling.” • ”Fiskeriet er den primære erhvervssektor, men mulighederne for at udvide fiskeriet på en bæredygtig måde er begrænsede.” • ”På baggrund af de gennemførte drøftelser med dansk og grønlandsk erhvervsliv og internationale investorer vurderes råstofsektoren og turismeområdet at have størst potentiale for at skabe ny vækst og beskæftigelse.” • ”Turisme er et internationalt væksterhverv, og i 2012 var der for første gang over milliard overnatninger globalt.” • ”Samtidig giver ændrede rejsemønstre og søgen efter nye destinationer og oplevelser mulighed for at skabe ny vækst og flere arbejdspladser. Det gælder også for Grønland, hvor den internationale interesse for Grønlands særlige natur og dyreliv er voksende.” • ” Der vil – selvom Grønland er et dyrt rejseland – formentlig kunne opnås en 50 pct. fremgang i udenlandske turister over de næste 10 år, såfremt der kan tilvejebringes en udbygning af turistfaciliteter og anden infrastruktur.” • ” Det er vigtigt at få tiltrukket udenlandske kommercielle investeringer, herunder også danske, til at gennemføre udbygning af det grønlandske turisterhverv.” 3 GOVERNMENT OF GREENLAND REPORT: DEREGULATION OF AIRPORTS October 5, 2015 AND AIRPORT FEES Project Newport Deregulation of airports and airport fees Key facts and findings • This 2014 Government of Greenland report on deregulating the government owned airport infrastructure recommends a ”growth” scenario approach to boost Greenland’s economy through increased tourism, in particular through massive investment in Ilulissat Airport • In the ”growth” scenario, framework conditions would be designed to attract investors, including limitations in additional airport construction to ensure return from investment, and with ultimate government control of airport infrastructure and market based approach to airport revenues • According to the report, lower ticket prices and shorter travel times to Ilulissat would generate 77,000-88,000 additional tourists per annum, increase annual GDP by DKK 500-800 million, create 350-1,400 jobs, reduce unemployment by 300- 1,200, and improve public finances by DKK 200-400 million in 2040 • In addition to the above mentioned direct effects from increased tourism the general macro dynamic impact on consumers, businesses and government finances would be substantial and lead to new opportunities in other industries such as fishing, construction • A scenario with two or more international airports would be decremental to the above effects due to the need for minimum viable scale, primarily due to reduced competition and less pressure for lower prices Comments • The report is in line with the Project Newport rationale 4 October 5, 2015 OVERNMENT OF REENLAND EPORT IRPORT SECTOR PLAN G G R : A Project Newport Airport infrastructure plan Key facts and findings • The Airport sector plan completed July 14 2014 by COWI, Integra and Orbicon Greenland, is an overview of Greenlands current airport infrastructure, along with a 10 year development plan for the airport sector • The purpose is to generate a basis for decision making on future maintenance and infrastructure investments in the airport sector • The report considers four project phases, with Project Newport mentioned in phase one: • Seven regional airports are either established or down- scaled • Kangerlussuaq Airport is kept or down-scaled depending on improvements of Nuuk and Ilulissat • Project Newport is initiated with external financing and the runway is extended to 2,800 m. to accomodate international flights • Nuuk Airport’s runway is extended to 1,799 – 2,200 m. with external financing • Phase two (in case phase one expansions are not initiated): • Ilulissat Airport runway extension to 1,199 m. (optimally 1.399 m.), financed by the Government of Greenland • Nuuk Airport runway extension to 1,199 m. (optimally 1.399 m.), financed by the Government of Greenland Comments • The report suggest initiation of Project Newport through external financing as part og phase one • The report is partly in line with Project Newport. The report suggest runway extensions of both Ilulissat and Nuuk Airport to accomodate international flights • The report suggest maintenance or down-scaling of Kangerlussuaq Airport • With Greenlands current number of international air traffic passengers, three internaional airports cannot operate profitably at the same time according to the Government of Greenland Report: ”Deregulation of airports and airport fees” 5 GOVERNMENT OF GREENLAND REPORT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM October 5, 2015 EXPANSION OF ILULISSAT AIRPORT Project Newport Socio-Economic Impact from Expansion of Ilulissat Airport Key facts and findings • The November 2014 report fulfills a Government of Greenland requirement for an socio-economic impact analysis of major new infrastructure projects • The report finds that the expansion of the Ilulissat Airport to 2800m will result in an expected DKK 3.4 billion socio-economic return over a 25 year period, including the effects of increased tourism and the need for additional public sector funded investments in infrastructure in Ilulissat of an estimated DKK 200 million • The Ilulissat Airport expansion breaks even in socio-economic terms with an 8% increase in the number of tourists from Comments • The Municipality of Qaasuitsup has in January 2015 initiated a City of Ilulissat development plan in light of an expected physical expansion of the Ilulissat as a result of the airport expansion • This report, the purpose of which is summarized elsewhere in this presentation, will - among other things – provide the basis for a further clarification and quantification of the need for public infrastructure expenditures, estimated at DKK 200 million in the Socio-Economic Impact Report. See “Key facts and findings” above 6 GOVERNMENT OF GREENLAND REPORT: EXPANSION OF ILULISSAT October 5, 2015 AIRPORT – TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION Project Newport Expansion of Ilulissat Airport Key facts and findings • The report issued in December 2014 by Integra, is a further investigation of technical details relevant for the expansion of Ilulissat Airport. • The report is an extension to the initial C-estimate made by Integra in 2013 • This updated proposal as presented in this report focuses more on details to be considered in the project • Costs are considered the same as in the initial report, within a margin of 5 to 10% • One additional cost may be added to the cost estimate, i.e. the cost of a surveillance system to observe icebergs. Comments • The report is in line with the initial C-estimate provided by Integra • The cost estimates are in line with estimates used for the analysis and valuation of Project Newport