Civilian Satellite Remote Sensing: A Strategic Approach September 1994 OTA-ISS-607 NTIS order #PB95-109633 GPO stock #052-003-01395-9 Recommended citation: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Civilian Satellite Remote Sensing: A Strategic Approach, OTA-ISS-607 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1994). For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP. Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16 -045310-0 Foreword ver the next two decades, Earth observations from space prom- ise to become increasingly important for predicting the weather, studying global change, and managing global resources. How the U.S. government responds to the political, economic, and technical0 challenges posed by the growing interest in satellite remote sensing could have a major impact on the use and management of global resources. The United States and other countries now collect Earth data by means of several civilian remote sensing systems. These data assist fed- eral and state agencies in carrying out their legislatively mandated pro- grams and offer numerous additional benefits to commerce, science, and the public welfare. Existing U.S. and foreign satellite remote sensing programs often have overlapping requirements and redundant instru- ments and spacecraft. This report, the final one of the Office of Technolo- gy Assessment analysis of Earth Observations Systems, analyzes the case for developing a long-term, comprehensive strategic plan for civil- ian satellite remote sensing, and explores the elements of such a plan, if it were adopted. The report also enumerates many of the congressional de- cisions needed to ensure that future data needs will be satisfied. In undertaking this effort, OTA sought the contributions of a wide spectrum of knowledgeable individuals and organizations. Some provided information; others reviewed drafts. OTA gratefully acknowledges their contributions of time and intellectual effort. OTA also appreciates the help and cooperation of officials with the Department of Defense, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (7+AzQ. ROGER C. HERDMAN Director Advisory Panel Rodney Nichols, Chairman David Goodenough Alan Miller Chief Executive Officer Chief Research Scientist Director New York Academy of Sciences Pacific Forestry Center The Center for Global Change Forestry Canada University of Maryland James G. Anderson Professor Donald C. Latham Raymond E. Miller Department of Chemistry Vice President Professor Harvard University Loral Corp. Department of Computer Science University of Maryland William Brown Cecil E. Leith President Livermore, CA Kenneth Pederson ERIM Research Professor of International Affairs John H. McElroy Georgetown University Ronald Brunner Dean of Engineering Washington, DC Professor of Political Science The University of Texas at Center for Public Policy Research Arlington University of Colorado David T. Sandwell Molly Macauley Geological Research Division Scripps Institute of Oceanography Joanne Gabrynowicz Fellow Associate Professor Resources for the Future Department of Space Studies Dorm Walklet University of North Dakota Earl Merritt President President TerrNOVA Int. Alexander F. Goetz Space Systems Markets Director Albert Wheelon Center for Aerospace Sciences Montecito. CA University of Colorado iv Project Staff Peter Blair Ray Williamson CONTRIBUTOR Assistant Director, OTA Project Director Mark Suskin Industry, Commerce, and International Security Division Arthur Charo CONTRACTORS Alan Shaw Mark Goodman Director International Security and Cynthia Allen Space Program Paul Bowersox Leonard David Madeline Gross Russell Koffler Paula Kern Pamela L. Whitney ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF Jacqueline Robinson Boykin N. Ellis Lewis workshop Participants A National Strategy for Civilian Space-Based Remote Sensing Scott Pace, Chairman Ronald G. Isaacs Philip Schwartz Policy Analyst Vice-President for Applied Head The RAND Corporation Research Remote Sensing Division Atmospheric and Environmental Naval Research Laboratory Research, Inc. Ghassem Asrar EOS Program Scientist Brent Smith National Aeronautics and Space David Johnson Chief Administration Study Director International and Interagency Committee on National Weather Affairs Service Modernization Col. Bill Campbell National Environmental Satellite, National Academy of Sciences Office of the Undersecretary of Data, and Information Service, Defense for Acquisition and National Oceanic and Technology Russell Koffler Atmospheric Administration Department of Defense Consultant Washington, DC William Townsend Gary Chesney Deputy Assistant Administrator Director of Business Development Berrien Moore for Mission to Planet Earth LORAL Corporation Director National Aeronautics and Space Institute for the Study of Earth, Administration Frank Eden Oceans, and Space Robert Watson EOS Project Scientist The University of New Hampshire Associate Director, Office of Martin Marietta Astrospace Science and Technology Policy Carl Schueler Executive Office of the President Manager John Hussey Advanced Development Programs Director Hughes Santa Barbara Research Milt Whitten Office of Systems Development Center Manager, DMSP/NOAA Programs National Environmental Satellite, Lockheed Missiles and Space Data, and Information Service Company National Oceanic and Chris Scolese Atmospheric Administration Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President vi Acknowledgments This report has benefited from the advice of many individuals. In addition to members of the advisory panel and the workshops, the Office of Technology Assessment especially would like to thank the fol- lowing individuals for their assistance and support. The views expressed in this paper, however, are the sole responsibility of OTA. Richard Beck Linda Moodie Jack Sherman National Aeronautics and National Oceanic and National Oceanic and Space Administration Atmospheric Administration Atmospheric Administration Donald Blersch John Morgan Ashbindu Singh Anser Corp. Eumetsat GRID Dixon Butler Jeffrey Rebel Milton C. Trichel National Aeronautics and National Oceanic and ERIM Space Administration Atmospheric Administration Hassan Virji Barbara Cherry Eric Rodenberg START Secretariat National Aeronautics and World Resources Institute Space Administration Greg Withey Lisa Shaffer National Oceanic and Lt. Col. Laura Kennedy National Aeronautics and Space Atmospheric Administration U.S. Air Force Administration vii ———— .——-— c ontents Executive Summary 1 Elements of a Strategic Plan 1 Data Collection 3 1 Findings and Policy Options 5 Need for a Strategic Plan 10 Structural Elements of a Strategic Plan 13 Limitations of a Strategic Plan 21 Monitoring Weather and Climate 22 Land Remote Sensing 28 Ocean Remote Sensing 32 2 National Remote Sensing Needs and Capabilities 37 - National Uses of Remote Sensing 38 U.S. Remote Sensing Capabilities 44 Matching Capabilities to Needs 52 3 Planning for Future Remote Sensing Systems 57 A National Strategic Plan for Environmental Satellite Remote Sensing Systems 58 Monitoring Weather and Climate 63 Land Remote Sensing and Landsat 86 Ocean Remote Sensing 95 4 International Cooperation and Competition 101 International Remote Sensing Needs 103 The Benefits and Risks of International Cooperation 104 International Competition in Remote Sensing 110 National Security Issues 112 Options for International Cooperation 116 ix A NASA’s Mission to Planet Earth 129 B Survey of National and International Programs 131 c Convergence of U.S. POES Systems 142 D A Brief Policy History of Landsat 145 E Landsat Remote Sensing Strategy 148 F Clinton Administration Policy on Remote Sensing Licensing and Exports 152 G Abbreviations 155 E xecutive Summary ver the past two decades, data from Earth sensing satel- lites have become important in helping to predict the weather, improve public safety, map Earth’s features and infrastructure, manage natural resources, and study envi- ronmentalo change. In the future, the United States and other coun- tries are likely to increase their reliance on these systems to gather useful data about Earth. U.S. and foreign satellite remote sensing systems often have overlapping requirements and redundant capabilities. To im- prove the nation’s return on its investment in remote sensing technologies, to meet the needs of data users more effectively, and to take full advantage of other nations’ capabilities, Con- gress may wish to initiate a long-term, comprehensive plan for Earth observations. A national strategy for the development and operation of future remote sensing systems could help guide near-term decisions to ensure that future data needs will be satis- fied. By harmonizing individual agency priorities in a framework of overall national priorities, a strategic plan would help ensure that agencies meet broad-based national data needs with im- proved efficiency and reduced cost. ELEMENTS OF A STRATEGIC PLAN A comprehensive strategic plan would endeavor to: ■ incorporate the data needs of both government and nongovern- ment data users, ■ improve the efficiency and reduce the costs of space and data- handling systems, ■ involve private operators of remote sensing systems, n incorporate international civilian operational and experimental remote sensing programs, and 1 2 I Civilian Satellite Remote Sensing: A Strategic Approach ■ guide the development of new sensor and for future remote sensing systems, the federal spacecraft