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Investment Daily 12 August 2020 Major Market Indicators Market Overview 11 Aug 10 Aug 7 Aug Mkt. Turn.(mn) 141,400 135,300 177,800 HK stock will retreat today, resistance at 25,000; Eye on Tencent Stock Advances 1,015 741 577 Result Stock Declines 857 1,054 1,242 Overnight US equities performed well. Hang Seng Index significantly rebounded 513 points to 24,890 HSI 24,891 24,377 24,532 after dropping two days in a row. H-share Index rose 162 points to 10,153. Market turnover was Change +531 -154 -399 HK$141.4 billion. Heavyweight blue chips boosted market. Tencent(700) rose 2.3% before result announcement. AIA(1299) also rose 2.5%. Macau will resume issuing tourist visas. Gaming stocks HSI Turn.($bn) 41.50 44.96 56.02 HSCEI 10,153 9,991 10,063 rose. Sands(1928)surged 9.8% while Galaxy Entertainment(27) advanced 5.5%. Change +163 -73 -139 President Trump said he was considered a capital gain tax cut, together with newly daily confirmed HSCEI Turn.($bn) 34.63 41.20 54.31 COVID 19 cases decline in US, support the US stock market to rise on early Tuesday, the Dow once rose 360 points on Tuesday. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed that talks between the Democrats and the White House were at a stalemate, triggered late selling pressure. US HSI Technical Indicators stock finished lower. 10-days MA 24,743 The three major US stock index fell 0.4-1.7% respectively on Tuesday, of which, the Nasdaq index fell 50-days MA 24,885 the most and closed below the 10 Day SMA. Among sector, 10 Year US treasury yield rose 7 basis 250-days MA 25,808 points to 0.64%, supporting the banking sector performed well. On the other hand, the technology 14-days RSI 50.13 sector remained weak. Besides, gold price fell 4.6% to US$1,946 per ounce. Primary resistance 25,000 China new bank loan fell in July, indicating that China monetary policy shows sign of gradual Primary support 24,500 normalization, which might limit the short term upside of the China stock. Besides, US and HK Tech stock market sentiment remained weak, also not favor to HK stock market. Hong Kong stock market HS CEI Technical In dicators likely to retreat today, Hang Seng Index resistance is at 25,000. 10-days MA 10,123 Tencent (0700) will announce its interim result today, which will be the market focus. China 50-days MA 10,130 Tower(0788) interim result below expectation, while WH Group (288) provides cautious 2H outlook 250-days MA 10,275 during interim presentation, share price short term momentum remain soft. On the other hand, fund 14-days RSI 49.73 Primary resistance 10,275 flow to China domestic consumption stocks recently, suggest investor accumulate stocks such as Primary support 10,000 Yongda (3669), Hope Education (1765) and Anhui Conch(914) during weakness. Technical Analysis HSI Futures The Hang Seng Index rebounded 513 points on Tuesday, closed with white candlestick, and regained the 10 days SMA (27,743), trading volume was $141.4 billion. Although RSI rose and the MACD 11 Aug 10 Aug 7 Aug contracted in the negative region, the Hang Seng Index saw resistance at the 20 days SMA (24,903), Aug 24,895 24,406 24,391 and the inflow from southbound also dropped. Investors should pay attention to see whether HSI can Volume, 138,789 119,523 163,040 rise above the 20 days SMA and the top line of the Bollinger Band (25,545) will be the next major Open interests 127,880 118,598 125,444 resistance level. Hang Seng Index is expected to trade between 24,500-25,000. The first support level Sep 24,775 24,288 24,275 of the Hang Seng Index is 24,500 points, and the second support level is 24,300 points. In addition, the Volume 429 265 1,035 first resistance level is 25,000 points and the second resistance level is 25,500 points. Open interests 11,698 11,572 11,509 HSI Chart HSCEI Futures 11 Aug 10 Aug 7 Aug Jul 10,148 10,0005 10,001 Volume 93,919 73,660 101,108 Open interests 185,160 181,421 188,311 Aug 10,107 9,965 9,964 Volume 2,886 1,305 1,408 Sources ：Google Open interests 56,899 54,332 53,067 Investment Daily Daily Focus China Tower (0788): Interim result review China Tower (0788) 1H20 revenue rose 4.8% yoy to Rmb39,794mn, while net China Tower (0788) Info profit rose 16.9% yoy to Rmb2,978mn. However, the profit increase is mainly thanks to the interest cost decline from Rmb2,349mn in 1H19 to Rmb2,094mn in Closed price 1.46 1H20. Its EBITDA only rose 4.6% yoy to Rmb29,100mn in 1H20, which is below market expectation. Expected P/E (X) 36 On business segment, core tower revenue rose 1.6% yoy to Rmb36,371mn. Of Dividend yield (%) 1.4 which, revenue from major client China Mobile (0941) only rose 0.6% yoy to 52 week high 2.014 Rmb20,220mn, the growth is mainly come from China Unicom(+5.6% yoy) and China Telecom (+6.6% yoy). Besides, for the two other business segment, 52 week low 1.37 revenue from indoor distributed antenna system rose 37.2% yoy to Rmb1,720mn, 14RSI 49 while trans-sector site application and information and energy operation rose 87.3% to Rmb1,579mn. For 2Q20 only, China Tower revenue growth accelerated to 5.4% yoy, but its EBITDA rose 2.4% yoy only to Rmb14,568mn, (compared with rose 6.9% yoy to Rmb14,532mn in 1Q20). The disappointing EBITDA performance is mainly due to sharp rise of employment cost. Looking ahead, although 5G roll out will accelerate in 2H20, investors are concern that the pace of core tower revenue growth. In fact, since the three telcos are China Tower’s major customer but also the major shareholders, China Tower often offer high co-location discounts which will result in a much lower Tower revenue growth. China Tower current valuation is 36x prospective P/E and 1.4% dividend yield, which is only fair valued with anticipated 15-20% net profit growth (given its high earnings leverage despite slow revenue and EBITDA growth). We expect China Tower to continue range trade at HK$1.40-1.55 in the near term. Analyst: Samuel Chua, CFA http://www.kgieworld.com 12 August 2020 2 Investment Daily HYSAN DEV(0014): Displayed strong resilience during 1H2020 Newly confirmed COVID-19 cases showed improvement in Hong Kong, and HYSAN DEV(0014)Info drove landlord sector performance yesterday. Closed price 24.05 The company also performed well for 1H2019, during the period, the company’s revenue amounted to $1.98 billion, decreased 5% YoY. Among them, revenue from Expected P/E (X) 10.6 retail portfolio was $900 million, from office portfolio was $927 million and from Dividend yield (%) 6 residential portfolio was $154 million, decreased by 10%, 0.22% and 1.28% respectively. 52 week high 34.01 The reported loss for the 1H2020 was $-2,626 million, but excluding unrealized 52 week low 20 fair value change of investment properties and items not generated from the 14RSI 64 Group’s core property investment business; and Profit attributable to holders of perpetual capital securities, the Underlying Profit was $1.346 billion, decreased by 3.4% YoY. For the 1H2020, the changes in the fair value of the investment properties decreased by $4.065 billion, while it recorded gain of 1.453 billion for the same period last year. The capitalization rates for office and residential portfolio were flat at 4.25%-5% and 3.75%, while for the retail portfolio it expanded by 0.25% to 5.25%-5.50%, the valuation was more conservative. Despite the backdrop of a negative net absorption of over 1.4 million square feet office space in Hong Kong in the first half of 2020, the company’s office occupancy rate was 96%, 2% less than last year. Meanwhile, its portfolio continued to achieve an overall positive rental reversion on renewals, rent review and new lettings. The banking and financial industries account for about 23% of the leased area of the office portfolio, while the impact from the epidemic was limited on these sector, however, the recent tension between China and U.S may cause negative impact. Regarding the retail portfolio, as the company focuses on the tourist consumption, the company estimated tenant sales underperformed Hong Kong’s overall retail sales, and it’s overall rental reversion in renewals, rent review and new lettings became negative in the first half of 2020. The retail occupancy was 94% as at 30 June 2020, 2% lower than as at end of 2019. The company has a strong balance sheet with net cash position, and the effective interest rate was 3.1%, which is lower than the 3.5% in the same period last year. The company announced an interim dividend of 27 cents, same as last year, but it will not make projection for the future dividend policy. In addition, the company is also looking for the acquisition opportunities in Hong Kong, China and overseas. In terms of valuation, the Expected P / E ratio is 10.6 times, the P / B ratio is 0.32 times, with Expected dividend yield around 6%, the valuation is reasonable. Although the rental income for 2H2020 still face challenge, the company's occupancy rate in the first half of the year still at a high level, outperforming its peers, reflecting the company's strong resilience, and the company maintained its dividend level, which may provide support for the share price.
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