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UNO Template 04 December 2013 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Casinos & Gaming (Casino & Gaming (AU)) Crown (CWN.AX / CWN AU) Rating (from Outperform) UNDERPERFORM* DOWNGRADE RATING Price (04 Dec 13, A$) 16.65 Target price (A$) 16.40¹ Market cap. (A$mn) 12,127.76 Pause in the rally Yr avg. mthly trading (A$mn) 433 Last month's trading (A$mn) 448 Projected return: ■ We believe Crown will UNDERPERFORM in the short-term as Macau Capital gain (%) -1.5 gaming stocks have become expensive. We lower our rating from Dividend yield (net %) 2.2 Outperform. We upgrade our FY14 NPAT 8% on a strong MPEL 3Q. Our Total return (%) 0.72 DCF-based target price remains unchanged as the uplift in our MPEL 52-week price range 17.2 - 10.1 * Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark. valuation was offset by weakness in the domestic casinos as reported at ¹Target price is for 12 months. CWN’s AGM. CWN reported that main floor gaming across its Australia casinos was in-line with the prior year for the 17 weeks ending October 27. It Research Analysts was implied from the AGM language that VIP was running below the pcp. Larry Gandler 61 3 9280 1855 ■ For calendar 2014 we factor 6% gaming revenue growth for MPEL – a [email protected] somewhat slower pace than the 22% for 2013E. Our US$32.50 MPEL DCF Kenny Lau, CFA equates to 12.1x 2014E EBITDA. Currently, MPEL is trading at 13.1x 2014E 852 2101 7914 EBITDA. Also, the margin expansion phase may be slowing as mass market [email protected] table hold rates rose from the low-20s to the low-30s by 2013E. Mass Benjamin Levin 61 3 9280 1766 players are losing 32% of their money at City of Dreams! Among mainstream [email protected] gaming products, only lotteries have a higher percentage of player loss. Isis Wong 852 2101 7109 ■ Domestic business fully-valued in a weak trading environment. CWN's [email protected] implied domestic multiple, after adjusting out MPEL, has recently hit 10.2x FY14E EBITDA and has trailed back to about 9.5x. By comparison, EGP is trading on 7.0x and SKC 9.0x. The valuation expansion that occurred as investors sought yield seems complete in light of the Sep quarter discretionary spend (WA discretionary spend was flat; VIC EGM revenue was down 1.4% vs pcp.) Total return forecast in perspective Financial and valuation metrics 50% Year 06/13A 06/14E 06/15E 06/16E 40% Revenue (A$mn) 2,878.7 2,945.9 3,070.7 3,224.7 30% EBITDA (A$mn) 758.4 796.1 823.5 870.2 20% EBIT (A$mn) 513.8 549.0 569.9 608.5 10% Mean^ 0% CS tgt^ Sh Prc Net income (A$mn) 472.8 617.2 694.7 812.8 -10% EPS (CS adj.) (Ac) 64.91 84.74 95.38 111.58 -20% Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. 7.9 0.6 5.8 -30% -40% Consensus EPS (Ac) n.a. 85.90 99.00 111.80 12mth Volatility* 52wk Hi-Lo IBES Consensus EPS growth (%) 14.9 30.5 12.6 17.0 target return^ P/E (x) 25.7 19.6 17.5 14.9 Dividend (Ac) 37.00 37.00 37.00 37.00 Performance over 1M 3M 12M Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Absolute (%) -1.0 12.3 63.1 P/B (x) 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 Relative (%) 1.2 9.8 46.0 Net debt/equity (%) 43.4 37.0 31.2 27.5 Relative performance versus S&P ASX 200.See Reference Source: Company data, ASX, Credit Suisse estimates, * Adj. for goodwill, notional interest and unusual items. Relative P/E against Appendix for a description of the chart. Source: Credit Suisse ASX/S&P200 based on pre GW in AUD. Company PE calculation is based on displayed EPS Currency estimates, * Consensus, mean range from Thomson Reuters DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683 US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 04 December 2013 Figure 1: Financial summary Crown (CWN) 2012 2013 2014 Year2015 ending 302016 Jun 2012 2013 In AUDmn,2014 unless 2015otherwise stated2016 Share Price: A$16.65 4/12/2013 19:59 Earnings 06/12A 06/13A 06/14E 06/15E 06/16E Rating UNDERPERFORM c_EPS_SHARESEquiv. FPO (period avg.) mn 734.8 728.4 728.4 728.4 728.4 Target Price A$ 16.40 c_EPS*100EPS (Normalised) c 56.5 64.9 84.7 95.4 111.6 vs Share price % -1.50 EPS_GROWTH*100EPS Growth 14.9 30.5 12.6 17.0 IBEs_EPS_MEAN*100Consensus EPS c 56.4 64.9 85.9 99.0 111.8 Crown Limited is an Australia-based company. It is engaged in gaming and entertainment IBES_EBT_MEANConsensus EBITDA mn 722.0 758.3 817.3 864.7 906.7 business. Crown wholly owns and operates two integrated resorts: Crown Entertainment c_DPS*100DPS c 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 Complex in Melbourne (Crown Melbourne) and Burswood Entertainment Complex in Perth. c_PAYOUT*100Dividend Payout % 65.5 57.0 43.7 38.8 33.2 c_FCF_PS*100Free CFPS c 14.5 33.3 42.9 51.1 38.5 Profit & Loss 06/12A 06/13A 06/14E 06/15E 06/16E Valuation Sales revenue @ theo. win 2,793.2 2,878.7 2,945.9 3,070.7 3,224.7 c_PEP/E x 29.5 25.7 19.6 17.5 14.9 EBITDA @ theo. win 722.0 758.4 796.1 823.5 870.2 c_EBIT_MULTIPLE_CURREV/EBIT x 23.7 26.7 24.9 23.8 22.3 Adjust to actual win 79.3 (6.5) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) c_EBITDA_MULTIPLE_CUEV/EBITDA x 19.1 18.1 17.2 16.5 15.6 EBITDA @ actual win 801.3 751.9 795.9 823.3 870.0 c_DIV_YIELD*100Dividend Yield % 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Depr. & Amort. 218.3 238.1 246.9 253.4 261.5 c_FCF_YIELD*100FCF Yield % 0.9 2.0 2.6 3.1 2.3 EBIT @ actual win 583.0 513.8 575.1 569.9 608.5 c_PBPrice to Book x 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 Net interest 102.1 120.4 107.9 103.2 92.3 Returns Reported PBT 481.0 393.4 441.2 466.7 516.2 c_ROE*100Return on Equity % 12.3 12.9 14.8 14.9 15.4 Income tax 106.5 75.9 92.4 100.0 114.9 c_I_NPAT/c_I_SALES*100Profit Margin % 14.9 16.4 21.0 22.6 25.2 Profit after tax 374.5 317.5 348.8 366.7 401.4 c_I_SALES/c_B_TOT_ASSAsset Turnover x 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 c_ASSETS/c_EQ_COMMONEquity Multiplier x 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 c_ROA*100Return on Assets % 7.1 7.9 9.5 10.1 10.9 Associates 138.9 173.5 278.2 335.8 419.5 c_ROIC*100Return on Invested Cap. % 9.0 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.0 Adjust to theoretical NPAT (98.4) (18.2) (9.8) (7.8) (8.1) Gearing Normalized NPAT 415.0 472.8 617.2 694.7 812.8 c_GEARING*100Net Debt to Net debt + Equity% 33.5 30.3 27.0 23.8 21.6 Unusual items after tax 0.0 (95.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 c_NET_DEBT/c_I_EBITDANet Debt to EBITDA x 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 Reported NPAT 513.4 395.8 627.0 702.5 820.8 c_I_EBITDA/Int Cover c_I_NET_INTEREST (EBITDA/Net Int.) x 7.1 6.3 7.4 8.0 9.4 Balance Sheet 06/12A 06/13A 06/14E 06/15E 06/16E c_I_EBIT/Int Cover c_I_NET_INTEREST (EBIT/Net Int.) x 5.7 4.3 5.1 5.5 6.6 Cash & equivalents 149.4 205.5 213.5 216.1 176.8 (c_C_CAPEX/c_I_SALES)*-100Capex to Sales % 16.6 8.8 9.5 7.7 11.7 Inventories 11.9 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.1 (c_C_CAPEX/c_I_DEPR)*-100Capex to Depreciation % 227.9 113.4 120.0 98.8 152.6 Receivables 201.7 257.5 257.5 283.1 311.3 Other current assets 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 MSCI IVA (ESG) Rating Credit Suisse View Current assets 382.0 494.7 502.9 531.6 521.2 TP ESG Risk (%): 0 Property, plant & equip. 2,804.4 2,865.5 2,912.1 2,909.2 3,039.1 TP Risk Comment: No ESG risks factored into our CWN 8.2 Intangibles 864.8 854.1 839.6 825.2 810.7 valuation.
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