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Leading 5G Infrastructure Provider, Initiate with "Accumulate"

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Leading 5G Infrastructure Provider, Initiate with 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Gin Yu 余劲同 Company Report: China Tower (00788 HK) 究 (852) 2509 2130 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国铁塔 (00788 HK) [email protected] 6 March 2020 Leading[Table_Summary 5G] Infrastructure Provider, Initiate With "Accumulate" 领先的5G基础设施提供商，首予“收集”评级 5G network construction will bring new demand for telecommunication 公 Rating:[Table_Rank] Accumulate towers. Rapid development of mobile Internet and the implementation of Initial 司 speed upgrade & tariff reduction policy will promote the demand of network 报 expansion. In addition, 5G construction has started, which will boost demand 评级： 收集 (首次覆盖) for telecommunication towers in the future. We expect that the novel 告 coronavirus pneumonia ("NCP") epidemic will change the pace of 5G network Company Report 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : construction, but won't reduce the scale of construction. HK$2.18 China Tower (00788 HK) is the largest telecom tower infrastructure Share price 股价: HK$1.970 service provider in the world. Based on the "One Core and Two Wings" strategy with sharing as the basis, we expect the Company's tower business, DAS business, and TSSAI business to continue to grow, and the growth of 告 Stock performance sharing rate will continue to increase the Company's profit margins. 证 股价表现 报 [Table_QuotePic] 券 We forecast the Company's revenue and shareholders' net profit to 30.0 % of return 究 grow at a CAGR of 7.6% and 54.9%, respectively, in 2018-2021. Based on 25.0 研 20.0 5G base station construction requirements, discounts on tower licensing fees 研 15.0 究 of site co-sharing and huge development opportunities of the "two-wings" 10.0 券 business, we forecast the Company's revenue to increase by 6.9%/ 7.5%/ 5.0 报 8.4% in FY19-FY21, respectively. Based on our forecasts on revenue growth, 0.0 证 告 co-sharing rate and operating expenses, we forecast EPS to be RMB0.028/ (5.0) Equity Research Report RMB0.041/ RMB0.056 in FY19-FY21, respectively. (10.0) (15.0) We initiate our coverage on China Tower with a TP of HK$2.18 and an (20.0) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 investment rating of "Accumulate". Our TP corresponds to 7.8x/ 7.1x/ 6.4x [Tab HSI Index China Tower FY19-FY21 EV/EBITDA and a discount of 1.7% to our DCF valuation. le_I 5G 网络的建设将带来对通信铁塔新的需求。移动互联网的快速发展以及提速降费政策的 nfo1 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 推行将促进网络扩容的需求，此外，5G 建设已经起步，未来会促进通信铁塔的需求。我 股价变动 个月 个月 年 ] 1 3 1 通 们预计新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情将改变 5G 网络建设的步伐，但不会减小建设规模。 Abs. % 7.7 22.6 4.8 信 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS Index 中国铁塔(00788 HK)是全世界最大的通信铁塔基础设施提供商。基于以共享为基础的“一 11.8 23.1 14.0 设 相对恒指变动 % 体两翼”战略，我们预计公司的塔类业务、室分业务、及跨行业业务将会得到持续的增长， Avg. Share price(HK$) 备 1.9 1.8 1.9 同时共享率的提升将会不断提高公司的利润率。 平均股价（港元） 行 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 业 我们预测公司的收入和股东净利将于 2018 年至 2021 年间分别以 7.6%和 54.9% 的复合 年增长率增长。基于 5G 基站的建设需求、站址共享的铁塔租赁费折扣、和“两翼”业务的 巨大发展空间，我们预测公司的收入在 2019 到 2021 财年间将分别同比增长 6.9%/ 7.5%/ 8.4%。基于我们对于收入增长、共享率、运营费用的预测，我们预测 2019 财年至 2021 财年的每股盈利分别为人民币 0.028 元/人民币 0.041 元/ 人民币 0.056 元。 Telecommunication Equipment Sector Telecommunication Equipment 我们首次覆盖中国铁塔并给予 2.18 港元的目标价以及“收集”的投资评级。目标价对应 7.8 倍、7.1 倍和 6.4 倍 2019-2021 的 EV/EBITDA，且较我们的现金流折现法估值有 1.7%的 [Tab 折让。 le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) ] 2017A 68,665 1,944 0.015 1,400.0 109.3 0.986 1.7 0.000 0.0 1.5 中 2018A 71,819 2,650 0.018 20.0 96.1 1.216 1.4 0.002 0.1 1.7 国 2019F 76,759 4,949 0.028 55.6 63.3 1.051 1.7 0.004 0.2 2.7 铁 2020F 82,541 7,138 0.041 46.4 42.8 1.088 1.6 0.006 0.3 3.8 2021F 89,489 9,841 0.056 36.6 31.3 1.138 1.5 0.008 0.5 5.0 塔 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 176,009.0 Major shareholder 大股东 China Mobile Group 27.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 346,737.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 30.9 China HK) Tower (00788 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 441,868.5 FY20 Net gearing (%) FY20 净负债/股东资金 (%) 44.7 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 2.330 / 1.560 FY20 Est. NAV (HK$) FY20 每股估值（港元） 2.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 18 [Table_PageHeader]China Tower (00788 HK) Table of Contents ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Industry Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………...3 Features of Telecommunication Tower Infrastructure Industry…………………………………....3 China Telecommunication Tower Infrastructure Industry…………………………………………..3 China Telecommunication Service Industry…………………………………………………………4 6 March 2020 Driving Factors………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Company Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………….7 Company Introduction………………………………………………………………………………….7 Business Overview……………………………………………………………………………………..7 Competitive Strengths………………………………………………………………………………….9 Development Strategies………………………………………………………………………………10 Financial Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………….11 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Revenue Analysis……………………………………………………………………………… ……...11 Profit Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………….12 Valuation & Investment Rating…………………………………………………………………….….14 Key Risks………………………………………………………………………………………………….15 Financial Statements and Ratios……………………………………………………………………..17 (00788 HK) 中国铁塔 China Tower Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 18 [Table_PageHeader]China Tower (00788 HK) Industry Analysis ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Telecommunication tower infrastructure service providers offer site resources and relevant services to telecom operators and other customers. In order to ease pressure from capital expenditure, more and more telecom operators choose to spin off their sites and related assets to telecommunication tower infrastructure service providers. Figure-1: Industry Chain of Telecom Tower Infrastructure Industry 6 March 2020 Survey, design & Construction Construction Site ancillary Maintenance supervision suppliers material suppliers facilities suppliers suppliers companies Telecom network integrators, Telecom tower infrastructure telecom equipment and service providers network equipment suppliers ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Telecom service providers Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Features of Telecommunication Tower Infrastructure Industry Telecommunication tower infrastructure providers usually have a stable relationship with customers and stable cash inflows. Service contracts of telecommunication tower infrastructure service providers with telecom operators usually have terms from five to fifteen years, and the services usually have relatively high renewal rate. Given the long contract term and relatively strong creditworthiness of customers (mainly telecom operators), telecommunication tower infrastructure service providers usually have stable cash inflows. (00788 HK) Site sharing will enhance profitability. One tower site can serve several tenants. Thus, through site sharing, telecommunication tower infrastructure service providers could generate additional revenue without the need to build additional tower sites. As the 中国铁塔 capital expenditure of sites maintenance and enhancement are much lower than new site construction, site sharing will improve profit margins significantly. China Tower China Telecommunication Tower Infrastructure Industry We expect that the novel coronavirus pneumonia ("NCP") epidemic will change the pace of 5G network construction, but won't reduce the scale of construction. Due to the delay of resumption of work nationwide, we expect 5G network construction progress to be affected in 1Q20. However, we don't expect the epidemic to reduce the total amount of 5G base station construction demand; in contrast, the NCP epidemic will stimulate demand for 5G, as we can see market space for many 5G application scenarios such as remote medical consultation, online education, online office, etc. China telecommunication tower infrastructure market is highly concentrated. There are over 200 companies providing telecommunication tower infrastructure services, however, no more than 10 companies have more than 1,000 sites. China Tower accounted for over 97% of the total market share. We expect the competition landscape to be relatively stable in the future, given the scale effect and support from government policies. The telecommunication tower infrastructure industry in China has high entry barriers. Telecom operators usually have very Report stable relationships with telecommunication tower infrastructure providers, and the cost to relocate base stations is relatively high. The construction and operation of a large-scale site resource requires huge capital expenditure and working capital. Thus, scale effect is very crucial for the industry. Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 18 [Table_PageHeader]China Tower (00788 HK) The major operating costs for telecommunication tower infrastructure providers in China are depreciation and amortization, land lease fee and maintenance expenses. Depreciation and amortization] 1 mainlyr a comesM t h fromg i towersR _ e whichl b area T [ affected by steel price. Due to strong bargaining power, telecommunication infrastructure providers will be less affected by fluctuations in raw material prices. Besides, land lease fee and maintenance expenses are expected to be relatively stable. As to the ground lease charges, we expect it to be relatively stable and local governments may give discounts to China Tower to promote the development of 5G. Figure-2: Steel Price Indices of the PRC Figure-3: Average Annual Salaries of Professional 6 March 2020 Technicians in the Construction Industry 180 RMB 80,000 160 68,760 140 70,000 59,532 120 60,000 56,139 53,153 50,086 47,639 100 50,000 80 40,000 60 30,000 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 40 20,000 20 10,000 0 01 06 11 04 09 03 08 01 06 11 04 09 02 08 01 06 11 04 09 02 02 07 12 05 10 07 12 05 10 03 07 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2009 2009 2010 2010 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2019 2019 2009 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: China Iron and Steel Industry Association, Guotai Junan Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International.
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