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Strategic Analysis and Research by the THE CENTER FOR STRATEGY, ENTERPRISE & INTELLIGENCE It is the rising political awareness of our people that we regard as our greatest triumph. … once we get into Parliament we will be able to work towards genuine democratization SEI ~ Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi speaking on Myanmar's parliamentary cen elections after a year of democratic reforms Report Life is tough here. We make just enough to survive. We just hope she can improve our lives ~ Father of four on democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's impending election victory Volume 2 - Number 13 • April 2-8, 2012 NATION 4 The Long Struggle to Silence the Guns After half a century of insurgency and counter-insurgency, are the government and the communists and separatists any closer to ending the bloodletting? Here’s a review of the long and winding trail to the elusive peace agreements. • 1968: A year of global revolutionary fervor spurs socialist and Muslim rebels in the Philippines • The ARMM Solution: Making peace in Mindanao under the Republic and the Constitution • Bangsamoro: Will awarding Muslim ancestral domains pacify the MILF? • Reds underground: From Hukabalahap to New People’s Army, the communists took on colonial and Filipino forces 11 Making Mining Serve Nation and Nature The government finds itself between a ton of rocks and a bunch of hard places • Academicians wondering aloud: The Ateneo School of Government asks a host of tough questions that are anything but academic WORLD 20 Now, Say Hello to Generation C Meet the wired and wireless global community of social-networked, BBM-and-SMS- connected, bandwidth-hungry multitaskers who live and love, work and play via their phones, tablets and PCs. If you’re reading this, you must be one of them • Dissecting Facebook: Social media updates show how people think and tick • One is not enough: Multiple device screens match our life’s many facets • Eat, drink and be connected: It’s fine to text and tweet with food in your mouth • Analyzing Gen C: Booz & Co. charts what the connected lifers mean to the world BUSINESS 30 Who Turned Off the Lights? After similar daily outages in the past two summers, Mindanao is again suffering eight-hour rotating blackouts. Amid administration talk of emergency presidential powers and an electricity summit, here’s the real picture of the nation’s power predicament and the tough issues facing policymakers and consumers in ensuring ample, affordable electricity for everyday life and long-term development. POINT & CLICK You can access TECHNOLOGY 42 Put It On and Switch It On online research Smartphones on your wrist. Grade-adjusting electronic eyewear. via the Internet Charging your cellphone with your shirt. Here are some of the by clicking amazing and stylish high-tech gear that goes right beside your Armanis and Guccis phrases in blue • Where to wear and wow: Don’t miss the big shows for wearable wonders CONTENTS NATION WORLD BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail [email protected] or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future. Understanding the Problem Is the First Step in Solving It For three consecutive summers since 2010, Mindanao has suffered debilitating daily brownouts lasting as long as eight hours. So last week there was much chatter about a power summit and emergency presidential powers. What’s wrong with this picture? If a problem has kept happening year after year, chances are the experts have analyzed it thoroughly and come up with some pretty good ideas on how to solve it. But lack of governance focus, political will or required investment may have held up the solution. So the first step in addressing the problem is often a review of relevant studies and situationers.That’ s exactly what we offer in this week’s three reports on decades-old national problems: limited and costly electric power, the mining policy, and the half-century-long communist and separatist insurgencies. The Nation article on the power crunch provides highlights of the Department of Energy’s Power Development Plan, 2009-2030, including projections on demand, capacity requirements, committed generating ventures, and the current or future power supply gaps, including those that may lead to intolerable outages. Our Business report on mining sets out the main issues as presented in relevant statements and studies by major sides in the burning controversy: the Chamber of Mines, grouping extraction companies; the environmental advocates and institutions, including international conservation entities; and of course the state. As in any highly politicized and intensely debated issue, the challenge for strategic analysis and research is faithfully and impartially presenting all major arguments and counter-arguments. If we don’t seem to strongly favor one side, then we must be correctly and professionally playing it right down the middle. On the other hand, there are issues where we do take sides at the outset in the interest of national advancement, social harmony and moral rectitude. One such issue is the peace process. Arguing across the negotiating table is, hands and guns down, far better than shooting one another and decimating innocent collaterals. Hence, while realpolitik advises that the key events in the struggle for lasting peace happens in the battlefield, the actual instrument for ending violence and joining hands as Filipinos has to be the legally binding agreements and memoranda, the focus of our Nation report on negotiations with communist and separatist rebel groups. For any age-old problem, controversy, challenge or aspiration, getting the lay of the land and the state of the art and science is but the first and perhaps easiest step. From the framework of principles, facts and figures, policymakers and other stakeholders must explore and devise new solutions and invest time, resources and reputations to essay and effect positive change. We’ll tell you about that too. 4 THE cenSEI NATION Report The Long Struggle to Silence the Guns of Rebellion After decades of communist and separatist insurgency, will peace agreements ever happen? By Atty. John Carlo Gil M. Sadian In the late 1960s, two distinct local posing any real military or political threat revolutionary movements rose from the to the Manila-based national government, activism that characterized that decade, their continuing existence -- as well as the one ideological (Muslim secession) and the underlying reasons for their resilience -- other geopolitical (worldwide communist has hounded six administrations as shown revolution). Despite the changes in the by the unsuccessful attempts to quell these world since then – including the collapse of insurgencies with various combinations of Communism as an ideology cum political diplomacy and force. movement, and the advent of globalization ushering in relative economic prosperity Seeking peace with Islamic separatists – the Philippines continues to be beset by these local insurgencies of communist After four decades of conflict with rebels and Muslim separatists. Muslim secessionists in Mindanao, the government, during the administration Even though the combined strength of these of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, appeared to two rebel forces has not reached a point of be on the verge of accomplishing a major CONTENTS NATION WORLD BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY The Struggle to Silence the Guns of Rebellion 5 breakthrough in the peace process when it The Court eventually voted 9-6 to strike was announced that the Memorandum of down the MOA-AD as unconstitutional. Agreement on the Muslim Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) would be signed on August This marked a major setback in the peace 5, 2008. The day before the scheduled process , which goes all the way back to the signing, however, the Supreme Court issued 1970s, when then-President Ferdinand E. a temporary restraining order against the Marcos started negotiations with the Moro signing of the MOA-AD, in response to five National Liberation Front (MNLF) led by petitions questioning its constitutionality. Nur Misuari. 1968: Two fuses are lit instead of accomplishing its goal of seizing power from the government, the CPP-NPA-NDF's rise set The Cold War between the United States and the the stage for an even more powerful government, Soviet Union may only be part of history books as then-President Ferdinand E. Marcos would for most of us, but for the activists who took part use the communist threat as the excuse for the in the public unrest during the pre-martial law era, declaration of martial law. it certainly was the spark that ignited the rise of a Maoist-inspired communist insurgency in the Also in 1969, on the heels of the Jabidah Philippines. Inspired by the rising unpopularity of Massacre, university professor Nur Misuari American imperialism set against the backdrop founded the MNLF, which began a protracted of escalating poverty across the country, the armed campaign against the government in 1970, Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) was aimed at establishing an independent Bangsamoro established on December 26, 1968, under the Land. Things took a different turn in 1976, when leadership of Jose Ma. Sison. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi brokered an agreement that led to the signing of the Tripoli Earlier that year, at least 28 Muslim volunteers Agreement, which introduced the concept of an from Sulu who were being trained for a covert autonomous Muslim region in Mindanao. On commando mission to conquer Sabah were killed August 1, 1989, under the mandate of the new by government troops in an attempt to cover up 1987 Constitution, Congress enacted Republic the mission's existence, in what would popularly Act 6734 creating the Autonomous Region in be known as the Jabidah Massacre.