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AMEC Report Template BLACKWATER GOLD PROJECT APPLICATION FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT CERTIFICATE / ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS 11 POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT ............................. 11-1 11.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 11-1 11.2 Information Sources and Methods .......................................................................... 11-2 11.3 Subsidence .............................................................................................................. 11-2 11.4 Landslides/Mass Wasting/Slope Stability ................................................................ 11-3 11.4.1 Baseline ...................................................................................................... 11-3 11.4.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ........................................... 11-4 11.4.3 Summary .................................................................................................... 11-5 11.5 Avalanches .............................................................................................................. 11-6 11.5.1 Baseline ...................................................................................................... 11-6 11.5.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ........................................... 11-6 11.5.3 Summary .................................................................................................... 11-6 11.6 Seismic Events and Liquefaction ............................................................................ 11-7 11.6.1 Seismic Events Baseline ............................................................................ 11-7 11.6.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ........................................... 11-7 11.6.2.1 Tailings Dam Hazard Classification ......................................... 11-9 11.6.2.2 Seismic Effects on Pit Wall Stability ....................................... 11-10 11.6.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-10 11.7 Volcanic Events ..................................................................................................... 11-10 11.7.1 Volcanic Events Baseline ......................................................................... 11-10 11.7.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ......................................... 11-11 11.7.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-11 11.8 Natural Fires/Forest Fires ...................................................................................... 11-13 11.8.1 Natural Fires Baseline .............................................................................. 11-13 11.8.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ......................................... 11-16 11.8.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-18 11.9 Flooding and Ice Jams .......................................................................................... 11-19 11.9.1 Flood Baseline .......................................................................................... 11-19 11.9.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ......................................... 11-19 11.9.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-20 11.10 Drought .................................................................................................................. 11-20 11.10.1 Drought Baseline ...................................................................................... 11-20 11.10.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ......................................... 11-21 11.10.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-22 11.11 Climate Change ..................................................................................................... 11-22 11.11.1 Climate Change Baseline ......................................................................... 11-22 11.11.2 Potential Effects on the Project and Mitigation ......................................... 11-23 11.11.3 Summary .................................................................................................. 11-23 11.12 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 11-24 Section 11 October 2015 TOC 11-i BLACKWATER GOLD PROJECT APPLICATION FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT CERTIFICATE / ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.) List of Tables Table 11.6.2-1: Summary of Soil Associations in the Project Study Area ................................ 11-9 Table 11.11.1-1: Summary of Predicted Climate Change in BC .............................................. 11-23 List of Figures Figure 11.6.2-1: 2010 Seismic Hazard Map – Geological Survey of Canada ........................... 11-8 Figure 11.7.3-1: Nazko Cone and the Satah Mountain General Location ............................... 11-12 Figure 11.8.1-1: Vanderhoof Forest District ............................................................................. 11-15 Figure 11.8.1-2: Record of the Total and Average Amount of Hectares Burned by Forest Fires in the Vanderhoof Forest District between 1980 and 2012 (Prince George Fire Centre, 2013a) .............................................................................................. 11-16 List of Appendices Appendix 11A Blackwater Project – Reconnaissance Terrain and Terrain Stability Mapping. Rev0. (Knight Piésold, 2013). Appendix 11B Forest Fire Record 1980 to 2012 for the Vanderhoof Forest District Section 11 October 2015 TOC 11-ii BLACKWATER GOLD PROJECT APPLICATION FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT CERTIFICATE / ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT 11 POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT 11.1 Introduction This section assesses the potential environmental factors that may affect the proposed Blackwater Gold Project (the Project) and the predicted effects of those environmental factors as required by the provincial Application Information Requirements (AIR) and federal Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) Guidelines. The range of climate conditions, including geological hazards, extreme weather events, and climate change is considered. The proposed Project has specifically used design strategies to compensate for the increased likelihood of environmental extremes under global climate change scenarios such as total containment of contact water during probable maximum flood events. Major resource projects are designed in consideration of potential effects of the environment. Project facilities must be built to withstand local environmental conditions to ensure uninterrupted project operations, maintenance of project assets, environmental protection and the safety of personnel and the general public. The federal EIS Guidelines require that the Proponent provide an examination of the potential effects the environment may cause on the Project, corresponding to the federal scope. Specifically, the Guidelines state: The EIS will take into account how local conditions and natural hazards, such as severe and/or extreme weather conditions and external events (e.g., flooding, ice jams, landslides, avalanches, erosion, subsidence, fire, outflow conditions and seismic events) could adversely affect the project and how this in turn could result in impacts to the environment (e.g., extreme environmental conditions result in malfunctions and accidental events) (CEA Agency, 2013). Further, the approved AIR pursuant to the BC Environmental Assessment Act (BC EAA) indicates that the Application will: • Identify and describe the environmental factors deemed to have possible adverse effects on the Project such as: o Natural hazards, including geological hazards (ice jams, landslides, avalanches, freezing, etc.); o Extreme weather conditions (drought, flooding); o Natural seismic events (e.g., liquefaction, subsidence, etc.); o Volcanic events; o Forest fires; o Slope stability and mass wasting events (outflow conditions); and o Climate change; Section 11 October 2015 Page 11-1 BLACKWATER GOLD PROJECT APPLICATION FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT CERTIFICATE / ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT o Identify any changes or effects on the Project that may be caused by the above- mentioned environmental factors, whether the changes or effects occur within or outside of Canada; o Identify the likelihood and severity of the changes or effects; and o Identify mitigation measures, including design strategies, planned to avoid or minimize the likelihood and severity of the changes or effects. Natural hazards, including geological hazards, and climate change have been assessed in terms of their likelihood of occurrence of a residual effect, their anticipated effect on the Project’s infrastructure and production, and the proponent’s potential response should one or all of these environmental hazards occur. As applicable, this section also describes proposed mitigation measures, including design strategies, planned to avoid or minimise
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