The Transport Revolution in Industrializing Britain: a Survey
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Bubbles, Manias and Market Failures
7 February 2019 Bubbles, Manias and Market Failures PROFESSOR D’MARIS COFFMAN transcribed by Mr Imad Uddin Ahmed Thank you all, it’s a great honour to be here. This is actually my second time lecturing in this hall. I was first here about 5 years ago in 2013 when I was talking about something else entirely. I’m thrilled to be back, and I would like to thank Michael Mainelli, who is not here, for in fact convincing me to do this for a second time. Tonight, I’ll talk about bubbles, manias and market failures and particularly about the unintended consequences of regulatory responses to these events. And I think when you begin talking about the subject, it’s almost imperative that you start with Tulipmania which is the paradigmatic early-modern financial crisis. Some of you may recognise this wonderful print from 1637/38 by Peter Nolpe which shows a fool’s cap in which people are playing a gambling game that was played in the inns near the flower markets. It was a kind of auction game, bit of a spread-betting game in which they bid up the price of tulips. And this print shows the devastation that Tulipmania was supposed to have caused to the morals and the economic welfare of the Dutch republic. Now most of when we actually see copies of this print, don’t see the copies from the 1636-37 but rather recycled copies from the 1720s in a much different context. We’ll talk in a moment about that context. -
Government Policy During the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis
Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis Campbell, G. (2014). Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis. In N. Dimsdale, & A. Hotson (Eds.), British Financial Crises Since 1825 (pp. 58-75). Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/british-financial-crises-since-1825-9780199688661?cc=gb&lang=en& Published in: British Financial Crises Since 1825 Document Version: Peer reviewed version Queen's University Belfast - Research Portal: Link to publication record in Queen's University Belfast Research Portal Publisher rights Copyright 2014 OUP. This material was originally published in British Financial Crises since 1825 Edited by Nicholas Dimsdale and Anthony Hotson, and has been reproduced by permission of Oxford University Press. For permission to reuse this material, please visit http://global.oup.com/academic/rights. General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Queen's University Belfast Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The Research Portal is Queen's institutional repository that provides access to Queen's research output. Every effort has been made to ensure that content in the Research Portal does not infringe any person's rights, or applicable UK laws. If you discover content in the Research Portal that you believe breaches copyright or violates any law, please contact [email protected]. Download date:28. Sep. 2021 Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and 1847 Commercial Crisis Gareth Campbell, Queen’s University Management School, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN ([email protected]) *An earlier version of this paper was presented to Oxford University’s Monetary History Group. -
The History of Financial Crises. 4 Vols.
KS-4012 / May 2014 ご注文承り中! 【経済史、金融史、金融危機】 近世以降の金融危機の歴史に関する重要論文を収録 L.ニール他編 金融危機史 全 4 巻 The History of Financial Crises. 4 vols. Coffman, D'Maris / Neal, Larry (eds.), The History of Financial Crises: Critical Concepts in Finance. 4 vols. (Critical Concepts in Finance) 1736 pp. 2014:9 (Routledge, UK) <614-722> ISBN 978-0-415-63506-6 hard set 2007 年以降、グローバルな金融制度は極度の混乱を経験しています。いくつかの銀 行は甚大な損失を抱え、各国政府による桁外れの救済を必要としてきました。その上、現 在も進行しているユーロ圏の危機は、政府の規制機関・銀行・資本市場の間の機能不全の 相互作用を浮き彫りにしています。こうした昨今の金融危機を踏まえ、近年、1930 年代 の大恐慌や 1719~20 年のミシシッピ計画及び南海泡沫事件といった歴史上の様々な金融 危機との比較研究が盛んに行われています。 本書は、深刻な金融危機からの回復の成功事例を位置づけ、学び、そして重要な歴史的 コンテクストに昨今の危機を位置づけるという喫緊の必要性によって企画されました。第 1 巻「近世のパラダイムの事例」、第 2 巻「金融資本主義の成長」、第 3 巻「金本位制の時 代」、第 4 巻「現代」の全 4 巻より構成されています。本書を経済史、金融史、金融危機 に関心を持つ研究者・研究室、図書館にお薦めいたします。 〔収録論文明細〕 Volume I: The Early Modern Paradigmatic Cases 1. C. P. Kindleberger, ‘The Economic Crisis of 1619 to 1623’, 1991 2. William A. Shaw, ‘The Monetary Movements of 1600–1621 in Holland and Germany’, 1895 3. V. H. Jung, ‘Die Kipper-und wipperzeit und ihre Auswirkungen auf OberÖsterreich’, 1976 4. S. Quinn & W. Roberds, ‘The Bank of Amsterdam and the Leap to Central Bank Money’, 2007 5. D. French, ‘The Dutch Monetary Environment During Tulipmania’, 2006 6. P. M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias, 2000, pp. 1–47. 7. N. W. Posthumus, ‘The Tulip Mania in Holland in the Years 1636 and 1637’, 1929 8. E. A. Thompson, ‘The Tulipmania: Fact or Artifact?’, 2007 9. L. D. Neal, ‘The Integration and Efficiency of the London and Amsterdam Stock Markets in the Eighteenth Century’, 1987 10. P. M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias, 2000, pp. -
The Development of the Railway Network in Britain 1825-19111 Leigh Shaw-Taylor and Xuesheng You 1
The development of the railway network in Britain 1825-19111 Leigh Shaw-Taylor and Xuesheng You 1. Introduction This chapter describes the development of the British railway network during the nineteenth century and indicates some of its effects. It is intended to be a general introduction to the subject and takes advantage of new GIS (Geographical Information System) maps to chart the development of the railway network over time much more accurately and completely than has hitherto been possible. The GIS dataset stems from collaboration by researchers at the University of Cambridge and a Spanish team, led by Professor Jordi Marti-Henneberg, at the University of Lleida. Our GIS dataset derives ultimately from the late Michael Cobb’s definitive work ‘The Railways of Great Britain. A Historical Atlas’. Our account of the development of the British railway system makes no pretence at originality, but the chapter does present some new findings on the economic impact of the railways that results from a project at the University of Cambridge in collaboration with Professor Dan Bogart at the University of California at Irvine.2 Data on railway developments in Scotland are included but we do not discuss these in depth as they fell outside the geographical scope of the research project that underpins this chapter. Also, we focus on the period up to 1911, when the railway network grew close to its maximal extent, because this was the end date of our research project. The organisation of the chapter is as follows. The next section describes the key characteristics of the British transport system before the coming of the railways in the nineteenth century. -
Stock Prices During the British Railway Mania
Munich Personal RePEc Archive ‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania Campbell, Gareth and Turner, John Queen’s University Belfast 31 March 2010 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21820/ MPRA Paper No. 21820, posted 07 Apr 2010 01:50 UTC ‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania* Gareth Campbell and John D. Turner Queen‟s University Management School Queen's University Belfast Belfast BT7 1NN [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Although the British Railway Mania has been described as one of the greatest bubbles in history, it has been largely neglected by academics. This paper attempts to redress this neglect by creating a daily stock price index for the 1843-50 period and by assessing the contribution of the many newly-created railways to the bubble-like pattern in stock prices. The paper then examines whether this bubble-like pattern was due to an increase in the stochastic discount factor arising from an increase in the probability of large-scale adoption of railway technology. We find little evidence to support this hypothesis. *Thanks to the ESRC (RES-000-22-1391) for financial support. 1 INTRODUCTION Recent asset price reversals in the technology and housing markets have stimulated an interest in historical financial crashes.1 The contemporary academic literature on „bubbles‟ has examined periods such as the Tulip Mania, the Mississippi Scheme, the South Sea Bubble, and the stock market crashes of the late 1920s in Germany and the USA.2 In contrast, what The Economist has recently termed „arguably the greatest bubble in history‟3, the British Railway Mania of the mid-1840s, has been relatively neglected in the academic literature. -
Foreign Wars, Domestic Markets: England, 1793–1815
European Review of Economic History, 15, 277–311. C European Historical Economics Society 2011 doi:10.1017/S1361491611000116 First published online 12 April 2011 Foreign wars, domestic markets: England, 1793–1815 DAVID S. JACKS Simon Fraser University and NBER, Department of Economics, 8888 University Drive, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, [email protected] This article explores the means by which warfare influences domestic commodity markets. It is argued that England during the French Wars provides an ideal testing ground. Four categories of explanatory variables are taken as likely sources of documented changes in English commodity price disintegration during this period: weather, trade, policy and wartime events. Empirically, increases in price dispersion are related to all of the above categories. However, the primary means identified by which warfare influenced domestic commodity market integration was through inter- national trade linkages and the arrival of news regarding wartime events. I. Introduction An emerging consensus in the economic history literature has identified the period encompassing the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars as one of the key turning points in the process of global market integration. Federico and Persson (2007), Jacks (2005, 2006), Rönnbäck (2009) and Studer (2009) all very clearly indict the so-called French Wars in disrupting the slow, but gradual process of intra- and intercontinental market integration that had unfolded over the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The effects of this commodity market disintegration are most clearly seen in the work of O’Rourke (2006, 2007). The shared findings of his papers are that the relative price effects of the French Wars were larger than generally appreciated, global in scale, and brought large changes to consumer welfare in their wake. -
Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition
Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition Francisco Queirós* Universitat Pompeu Fabra February 9, 2018 Abstract This paper studies the effects of rational bubbles in an economy characterized by imperfect competition in product markets. It provides two main insights. The first is that imperfect competition relaxes the conditions for the existence of rational bubbles. When they have market power, firms restrict output and investment to enjoy supernormal profits. This depresses the interest rate, making rational bubbles possible even when capital accumulation is dynamically efficient. The second is that by providing a production or entry subsidy, asset bubbles may have a pro-competitive effect and force firms to expand and cut profit margins. However, once they get too large they can lead to overinvestment and sustain corporate losses. I use anecdotal evidence from the British railway mania of the 1840s and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s to support the model’s hypotheses and predictions. JEL Classification: D43, E32, E44, O40 Key words: rational bubbles, competition, market power, dotcom bubble, British railway mania *Address: Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain. e-mail: [email protected]. I am greatly indebted to my advisors, Fernando Broner and Jaume Ventura, for their guidance and motivation. I also thank Matt Delventhal, Luca Fornaro, Alberto Martin, Haozhou Tang, Tomas Williams and participants of the CREI International Lunch for helpful discussions and suggestions. I also thank Gareth Campbell and John Turner for sharing their data on railway share prices. I acknowledge financial support from the Portuguese Science Foundation (grant SFRH/BD/87426/2012). -
Deriving the Railway Mania
Deriving the Railway Mania Campbell, G. (2013). Deriving the Railway Mania. Financial History Review, 20(1), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565012000285 Published in: Financial History Review Document Version: Peer reviewed version Queen's University Belfast - Research Portal: Link to publication record in Queen's University Belfast Research Portal Publisher rights © 2013 European Association for Banking and Financial History General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Queen's University Belfast Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The Research Portal is Queen's institutional repository that provides access to Queen's research output. Every effort has been made to ensure that content in the Research Portal does not infringe any person's rights, or applicable UK laws. If you discover content in the Research Portal that you believe breaches copyright or violates any law, please contact [email protected]. Download date:27. Sep. 2021 1 Deriving the Railway Mania1 Gareth Campbell Queen’s University Belfast 185 Stranmillis Road, Belfast, BT9 5EE [email protected] This paper argues that the promotion boom, which occurred in the railway industry during the mid-1840s, was amplified by the issue of derivative-like assets which let investors take highly leveraged positions in the shares of new railway companies. The partially paid shares which the new railway companies issued allowed investors to obtain exposure to an asset by paying only a small initial deposit. -
Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition
WORKING PAPER NO. 607 Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition Francisco Queirós March 2021 University of Naples Federico II University of Salerno Bocconi University, Milan CSEF - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS – UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES 80126 NAPLES - ITALY Tel. and fax +39 081 675372 – e-mail: [email protected] ISSN: 2240-9696 WORKING PAPER NO. 607 Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition Francisco Queirós* Abstract This paper studies the interactions between asset bubbles and competition. I first document a negative industrylevel relationship between measures of stock market overvaluation and indicators of market power: larger overvaluation is associated with an increase in the number of firms, lower markups and a higher probability of negative earnings. I then construct multi-industry growth model featuring imperfect competition and rational bubbles that sheds light on these findings. By providing an entry or production subsidy, bubbles stimulate competition and reduce monopoly rents. When they are sufficiently large they can, however, lead to excessive entry and competition. I also show that imperfect competition depresses the interest rate, thereby relaxing the conditions for the emergence of rational bubbles. Keywords: Rational Bubbles, Competition, Market Power, British Railway Mania, Dotcom Bubble JEL Classification: E44, L13, L16 Acknowledgements: I am greatly indebted to my advisors, Fernando Broner and Jaume Ventura, for their guidance and motivation. I also thank Árpád Ábrahám, Vasco Carvalho, Russell Cooper, Matt Delventhal, Alessandro Ferrari, Luca Fornaro, Ramon Marimon, Alberto Martin, Xavier Mateos-Planas, Alessandro Spiganti, Haozhou Tang, TomásWilliams and seminar participants at CREI, EUI, CSEF, the Bank of Spain, the 2018 Transatlantic Doctoral Conference (LBS), the 1st QMUL Economics and Finance Workshop for PhD Students (Queen Mary University), the SED 2018 Annual Meeting (Mexico City), the EEA 2018 Congress (Cologne), and the SMYE 2019 (Brussels) for helpful discussions and suggestions. -
Bubbles in History
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Quinn, William; Turner, John D. Working Paper Bubbles in history QUCEH Working Paper Series, No. 2020-07 Provided in Cooperation with: Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH), Queen's University Belfast Suggested Citation: Quinn, William; Turner, John D. (2020) : Bubbles in history, QUCEH Working Paper Series, No. 2020-07, Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH), Belfast This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/224837 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu QUCEH WORKING PAPER SERIES http://www.quceh.org.uk/working-papers BUBBLES IN HISTORY William Quinn (Queen’s University Belfast) John D. -
Coffman, D'm. / L. Neal, Eds.: the History of Financial
COFFMAN, D’M. / L. NEAL, EDS.: THE HISTORY OF FINANCIAL CRISES, 4 VOLS. Volume I. The early modern paradigmatic cases 1. C. P. Kindleberger, ‘The Economic Crisis of 1619 to 1623’, Journal of Economic History, Mar. 1991, 51, 1, 149–75. 2. William A. Shaw, ‘The Monetary Movements of 1600–1621 in Holland and Germany’, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society (New Series), 1895, 9, 1, 189–213. 3. V. H. Jung, ‘Die Kipper-und wipperzeit und ihre Auswirkungen auf OberÖsterreich’, Jahrbuch des Oberösterreichischen Musealvereines, 1976, 121, 55–65. 4. S. Quinn and W. Roberds, ‘The Bank of Amsterdam and the Leap to Central Bank Money’, American Economic Review, May 2007, 97, 2, 262–5. 5. D. French, ‘The Dutch Monetary Environment During Tulipmania’, Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Spring 2006, 9, 1, 3– 14. 6. P. M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias (Cambridge, Mass., 2000), pp. 1–47. 7. N. W. Posthumus, ‘The Tulip Mania in Holland in the Years 1636 and 1637’, Journal of Economic and Business History, May 1929, 1, 434–66. 8. E. A. Thompson, ‘The Tulipmania: Fact or Artifact?’, Public Choice, Jan. 2007, 130, 1–2, 99–114. 9. L. D. Neal, ‘The Integration and Efficiency of the London and Amsterdam Stock Markets in the Eighteenth Century’, Journal of Economic History, 1987, 47, 1, 97–115. 10. P. M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias (Cambridge, Mass., 2000), pp. 87–126. 11. A. L. Murphy, ‘Trading Options Before Black-Scholes: A Study of the Market in Late Seventeenth-Century London’, Economic History Review, 2009, 62, 1, 8–30. -
Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition
Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition Francisco Queirós* European University Institute October 24, 2018 Abstract This paper studies the effects of rational bubbles in an economy characterized by imperfect competition in product markets. It provides two main insights. The first is that imperfect competition relaxes the conditions for the existence of rational bubbles. When they have market power, firms restrict output and investment to enjoy supernormal profits. This depresses the interest rate, making rational bubbles possible even when capital accumulation is dynamically efficient. The second is that by providing a production or entry subsidy, asset bubbles may have a pro-competitive effect and force firms to expand and cut profit margins. However, once they get too large they can lead to overinvestment and sustain corporate losses. I use anecdotal evidence from the British railway mania of the 1840s and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s to support the model’s hypotheses and predictions. JEL Classification: E32, E44, L13 Key words: rational bubbles, competition, market power, dotcom bubble, British railway mania *Address: Villa Paola (EUI Campus), Via dei Roccettini, 9, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy. e-mail: [email protected] am greatly indebted to my advisors, Fernando Broner and Jaume Ventura, for their guidance and motivation. I also thank Árpád Ábrahám, Vasco Carvalho, Matt Delventhal, Luca Fornaro, Alberto Martin, Xavier Mateos-Planas, Haozhou Tang, Tomas Williams and participants of the CREI International Lunch, the 2018 Transatlantic Doctoral Conference (London Business School), the “1st QMUL Economics and Finance Workshop for PhD & Post-Doctoral Students” (Queen Mary University of London), the 2018 Annual Meeting of the SED (Mexico City) and the 2018 Congress of the EEA (Cologne) for helpful discussions and suggestions.