Coffman, D'm. / L. Neal, Eds.: the History of Financial
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Brazilian Inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: an Empirical Investigation
Brazilian Inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: An Empirical Investigation Eurilton Araujo Ibmec Business School Alexandre Cunha Ibmec Business School RESUMO A possibilidade de que políticas de combate à inflação possuam efeitos negativos sobre a atividade econômica real e o crescimento é um assunto recorrente no Brasil. Neste traba- lho foram utilizados dados anuais para se estudar o comportamento da inflação e do PIB brasileiro de 1850 até 2000. Adotaram-se técnicas econométricas e da literatura de ciclos econômicos para se estudar o comportamento dessas duas variáveis nos domínios do tempo e da freqüência. Os resultados sugerem que as duas séries não são positivamente relacio- nadas. Assim sendo, a evidência empírica aparentemente indica que a opção de abrandar a política de combate à inflação com intuito de não prejudicar a atividade econômica real e o crescimento não está disponível para os condutores da política econômica brasileira. PALAVRAS-CHAVE inflação, crescimento, ciclos econômicos ABSTRACT The question of whether a policy that leads to low inflation can hamper real economic activity and growth is a recurrent one in Brazil. In this essay we used yearly data to study the behavior of Brazilian inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000. We used econometric and business cycles techniques to study the behavior of these variables in time and frequency domains. The results suggest the absence of positive comovement between the series. Thus, the empirical evidence apparently implies that the option of easing up on inflation to avoid a slowdown in real economic activity and growth is not available to Brazilian policy makers. KEY WORDS inflation, growth, business cycles JEL Classification C32, E31, E32 EST. -
1 Stern School of Business New York University B30.2392.30 Prof
Stern School of Business New York University B30.2392.30 Prof. Richard Sylla Spring 2009 KMC 8-65, 998-0869 Weds, 6-9 Off.Hrs: W 4-6 & by app't KMC 4-120 email: [email protected] The Development of Financial Institutions and Markets Course description: The credit crisis of 2007-08 came as no surprise to financial historians who have studied such events going back four or more centuries. This course studies the historical development of financial institutions and markets, in a comparative international context with emphasis on the USA. It covers monetary, banking, central banking, and securities market history, as well as pertinent aspects of the history of government finance and the emergence of corporations as a dominant business form. Topics include the emergence of modern financial systems in history, including the roles of public finance and money, banking and central banking, and securities and insurance markets. We study the composition, growth, fluctuations, and determinants of the money stock; the development of banking systems and their regulation; the emergence of central banking and its key role in modern financial systems; monetary policies; major trends and fluctuations in stock, bond, and money markets; and, of course, the history of financial crises. Readings: For a course such as this there are no ideal texts, despite the richness of the literature in book and article form. As a compromise between ideal and real, I have chosen several books that are comprehensive in treatments of their subjects (and perhaps one or two are worth keeping on your shelf after the course is over). -
Riding the South Sea Bubble
Riding the South Sea Bubble By PETER TEMIN AND HANS-JOACHIM VOTH* This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare’s Bank, a fledgling West End London bank, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock: it was profitable to “ride the bubble.” Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by such institutional factors as restric- tions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may attack only when some coordinating event promotes joint action. (JEL G14, E44, N23) What allows asset price bubbles to inflate? light on other important episodes of market The recent rise and fall of technology stocks overvaluation. have led many to argue that wide swings in We examine one of the most famous and asset prices are largely driven by herd behavior dramatic episodes in the history of speculation, among investors. Robert J. Shiller (2000) em- the South Sea bubble. Data on the daily trading phasized that “irrational exuberance” raised behavior of a goldsmith bank—Hoare’s—allow stock prices above their fundamental values in us to examine competing explanations for how the 1990s. Others, however, have pointed to bubbles can inflate. While many investors, in- structural features of the stock market, such as cluding Isaac Newton, lost substantially in lock-up provisions for IPOs, analysts’ advice, 1720, Hoare’s made a profit of over £28,000, a strategic interactions between investors, and the great deal of money at a time when £200 was a uncertainties surrounding Internet technology, comfortable annual income for a middle-class as causes of the recent bubble. -
This Is the Heritage Society After All – to 1893, and the Shape of This
1 IRVING HERITAGE SOCIETY PRESENTATION By Maura Gast, Irving CVB October 2010 For tonight’s program, and because this is the Irving Heritage Society, after all, I thought I’d take a departure from my usual routine (which probably everyone in this room has heard too many times) and talk a little bit about the role the CVB plays in an historical context instead. I’m hopeful that as champions of heritage and history in general, that you’ll indulge me on this path tonight, and that you’ll see it all come back home to Irving by the time I’m done. Because there were really three key factors that led to the convention industry as we know it today and to our profession. And they are factors that, coupled with some amazing similarities to what’s going on in our world today, are worth paying attention to. How We as CVBs Came to Be • The Industrial Revolution – And the creation of manufacturing organizations • The Railroad Revolution • The Panic of 1893 One was the industrial revolution and its associated growth of large manufacturing organizations caused by the many technological innovations of that age. The second was the growth of the railroad, and ultimately the Highway system here in the US. And the third was the Panic of 1893. The Concept of “Associations” 2 The idea of “associations” has historically been an American concept – this idea of like‐minded people wanting to gather together in what came to be known as conventions. And when you think about it, there have been meetings and conventions of some kind taking place since recorded time. -
Center for Institutional Reform and the Informal Sector
CENTER FOR INSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE INFORMAL SECTOR University of Maryland at College Park Center Office: IRIS Center, 2105 Morrill Hall, College Park, MD 20742 Telephone (301) 405-3110 l Fax (301) 405-3020 Financial Markets and Industrial Development: A Comparative Study of Government Regulation Financial Innovation, and Industrial Structure in Brazil and Mexico, 1840-1930 November 1994 Stephen Haber Working Paper No. 143 This publication was made possible through support provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development, under Cooperative Agreement No. DHR-0015-A-00-0031-00. The views and analyses in the paper do not necessarily reflect the official position of the IRIS Center or the U.S.A.I.D. Author: Stephen Haber, Department of History, Stanford University, Standford, CA. IRIS Summary Working Paper #143 Financial Markets and Industrial Development: A Comparative Study of Government Regulation, Financial Innovation and Industrial Structure in Brazil and Mexico 1840-1930. Stephen Haber Department of History Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 This paper examines the experiences of Mexico and Brazil in the creation of modern banks and stock exchanges during the early stages of industrialization. It addresses three interrelated questions. First, what were the differences in the development of financial intermediaries in both countries. Second< what- were the consequences for the structure and rate of growth of industry of these differences in institutional development? Third, what were the sources of these differences in institutional development? Why did Brazil develop a modern stock and bond market during the 1890s and Mexico did not? In order to answer these questions, the pc3pe.K fucuses cl11 the history of textile mill finance in both countries. -
The Market's Boom/Bust Cycle
The Market’s Boom/Bust Cycle: Where are we today? Spring 2016 Presented by: Spencer Klein, CFA® - Senior Portfolio Manager IPPFA Regional Seminar – February 2016 STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 1 Outline A Change of Seasons … to Business Cycles … to Market Cycles … to Booms and Busts Suggestions STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Early cycles are seasonal • Among the earliest of civilizations, business cycles can be thought to be attributed to the changing of the seasons and yields at harvest time. • Evidence for this can be found in irrigation efforts in agrarian societies of Egypt and China as well as crop rotation techniques pioneered in medieval Europe. STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 3 … seasons to business cycles • As civilizations matured and expanded, industry and trade advanced. • New products and methods amplified agricultural output. • Banking was not all that sophisticated. • Geographic and localized growth rate differences emerged. STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 4 … business cycles to market cycles • As commerce and banking became more sophisticated, differences in market could be more easily observed and serve as a base for profits themselves. • Initially, these three cycles reinforced each other. As time progressed, these three cycles would be in and out of phase for a host of reasons and an even wider range of impact. STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 5 Phases of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) • Expansion, Peak, Contraction, Trough • Q: When do recessions happen? • A: 2 quarterly declines in GDP. Wrong! • “The Committee -
The Rising Thunder El Nino and Stock Markets
THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: By Tristan Caswell A Project Presented to The Faculty of Humboldt State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Business Administration Committee Membership Dr. Michelle Lane, Ph.D, Committee Chair Dr. Carol Telesky, Ph.D Committee Member Dr. David Sleeth-Kepler, Ph.D Graduate Coordinator July 2015 Abstract THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: Tristan Caswell Every year, new theories are generated that seek to describe changes in the pricing of equities on the stock market and changes in economic conditions worldwide. There are currently theories that address the market value of stocks in relation to the underlying performance of their financial assets, known as bottom up investing, or value investing. There are also theories that intend to link the performance of stocks to economic factors such as changes in Gross Domestic Product, changes in imports and exports, and changes in Consumer price index as well as other factors, known as top down investing. Much of the current thinking explains much of the current movements in financial markets and economies worldwide but no theory exists that explains all of the movements in financial markets. This paper intends to propose the postulation that some of the unexplained movements in financial markets may be perpetuated by a consistently occurring weather phenomenon, known as El Nino. This paper intends to provide a literature review, documenting currently known trends of the occurrence of El Nino coinciding with the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies, as well as to conduct a statistical analysis to explore whether there are any statistical relationships between the occurrence of El Nino and the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies. -
Government Policy During the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis
Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis Campbell, G. (2014). Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and the 1847 Commercial Crisis. In N. Dimsdale, & A. Hotson (Eds.), British Financial Crises Since 1825 (pp. 58-75). Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/british-financial-crises-since-1825-9780199688661?cc=gb&lang=en& Published in: British Financial Crises Since 1825 Document Version: Peer reviewed version Queen's University Belfast - Research Portal: Link to publication record in Queen's University Belfast Research Portal Publisher rights Copyright 2014 OUP. This material was originally published in British Financial Crises since 1825 Edited by Nicholas Dimsdale and Anthony Hotson, and has been reproduced by permission of Oxford University Press. For permission to reuse this material, please visit http://global.oup.com/academic/rights. General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Queen's University Belfast Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The Research Portal is Queen's institutional repository that provides access to Queen's research output. Every effort has been made to ensure that content in the Research Portal does not infringe any person's rights, or applicable UK laws. If you discover content in the Research Portal that you believe breaches copyright or violates any law, please contact [email protected]. Download date:28. Sep. 2021 Government Policy during the British Railway Mania and 1847 Commercial Crisis Gareth Campbell, Queen’s University Management School, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN ([email protected]) *An earlier version of this paper was presented to Oxford University’s Monetary History Group. -
Friday, June 21, 2013 the Failures That Ignited America's Financial
Friday, June 21, 2013 The Failures that Ignited America’s Financial Panics: A Clinical Survey Hugh Rockoff Department of Economics Rutgers University, 75 Hamilton Street New Brunswick NJ 08901 [email protected] Preliminary. Please do not cite without permission. 1 Abstract This paper surveys the key failures that ignited the major peacetime financial panics in the United States, beginning with the Panic of 1819 and ending with the Panic of 2008. In a few cases panics were triggered by the failure of a single firm, but typically panics resulted from a cluster of failures. In every case “shadow banks” were the source of the panic or a prominent member of the cluster. The firms that failed had excellent reputations prior to their failure. But they had made long-term investments concentrated in one sector of the economy, and financed those investments with short-term liabilities. Real estate, canals and railroads (real estate at one remove), mining, and cotton were the major problems. The panic of 2008, at least in these ways, was a repetition of earlier panics in the United States. 2 “Such accidental events are of the most various nature: a bad harvest, an apprehension of foreign invasion, the sudden failure of a great firm which everybody trusted, and many other similar events, have all caused a sudden demand for cash” (Walter Bagehot 1924 [1873], 118). 1. The Role of Famous Failures1 The failure of a famous financial firm features prominently in the narrative histories of most U.S. financial panics.2 In this respect the most recent panic is typical: Lehman brothers failed on September 15, 2008: and … all hell broke loose. -
History of Financial Turbulence and Crises Prof
History of Financial Turbulence and Crises Prof. Michalis M. Psalidopoulos Spring term 2011 Course description: The outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis has rekindled academic interest in the history of fi‐ nancial turbulence and crises – their causes and consequences, their interpretations by eco‐ nomic actors and theorists, and the policy responses they stimulated. In this course, we use the analytical tools of economic history, the history of economic policy‐ making and the history of economic thought, to study episodes of financial turbulence and crisis spanning the last three centuries. This broad historical canvas offers such diverse his‐ torical examples as the Dutch tulip mania of the late 17th century, the German hyperinflation of 1923, the Great Crash of 1929, the Mexican Peso crisis of 1994/5 and the most recent sub‐ prime mortgage crisis in the US. The purpose of this historical journey is twofold: On the one hand, we will explore the prin‐ cipal causes of a variety of different manias, panics and crises, as well as their consequences – both national and international. On the other hand, we shall focus on the way economic ac‐ tors, economic theorists and policy‐makers responded to these phenomena. Thus, we will also discuss bailouts, sovereign debt crises and bankruptcies, hyperinflations and global re‐ cessions, including the most recent financial crisis of 2008 and the policy measures used to address it. What is more, emphasis shall be placed on the theoretical framework with which contemporary economists sought to conceptualize each crisis, its interplay with policy‐ making, as well as the possible changes in theoretical perspective that may have been precipi‐ tated by the experience of the crises themselves. -
The Many Panics of 1837 People, Politics, and the Creation of a Transatlantic Financial Crisis
The Many Panics of 1837 People, Politics, and the Creation of a Transatlantic Financial Crisis In the spring of 1837, people panicked as financial and economic uncer- tainty spread within and between New York, New Orleans, and London. Although the period of panic would dramatically influence political, cultural, and social history, those who panicked sought to erase from history their experiences of one of America’s worst early financial crises. The Many Panics of 1837 reconstructs the period between March and May 1837 in order to make arguments about the national boundaries of history, the role of information in the economy, the personal and local nature of national and international events, the origins and dissemination of economic ideas, and most importantly, what actually happened in 1837. This riveting transatlantic cultural history, based on archival research on two continents, reveals how people transformed their experiences of financial crisis into the “Panic of 1837,” a single event that would serve as a turning point in American history and an early inspiration for business cycle theory. Jessica M. Lepler is an assistant professor of history at the University of New Hampshire. The Society of American Historians awarded her Brandeis University doctoral dissertation, “1837: Anatomy of a Panic,” the 2008 Allan Nevins Prize. She has been the recipient of a Hench Post-Dissertation Fellowship from the American Antiquarian Society, a Dissertation Fellowship from the Library Company of Philadelphia’s Program in Early American Economy and Society, a John E. Rovensky Dissertation Fellowship in Business History, and a Jacob K. Javits Fellowship from the U.S. -
Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past Or Being Condemned to Repeat It?
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DEFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: REMEMBERING THE PAST OR BEING CONDEMNED TO REPEAT IT? Michael D. Bordo Andrew Filardo Working Paper 10833 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10833 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2004 This paper was prepared for the 40th Panel Meeting of Economic Policy in Amsterdam (October 2004). The authors would like to thank Jeff Amato, Palle Andersen, Claudio Borio, Gauti Eggertsson, Gabriele Galati, Craig Hakkio, David Lebow and Goetz von Peter, Patrick Minford, Fernando Restoy, Lars Svensson, participants at the 3rd Annual BIS Conference as well as seminar participants at the Bank of Canada and the International Monetary Fund for helpful discussions and comments. We also thank Les Skoczylas and Arturo Macias Fernandez for expert assistance. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements or the National Bureau of Economic Research. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2004 by Michael D. Bordo and Andrew Filardo. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past or Being Condemned to Repeat It? Michael D. Bordo and Andrew Filardo NBER Working Paper No. 10833 October 2004 JEL No. E31, N10 ABSTRACT What does the historical record tell us about how to conduct monetary policy in a deflationary environment? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges.