Coda: The Gone and All But Forgotten

David A. Andelman

aP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Alexei Druzhinin, Government Press Service

WINTER 2013 / 2014 111

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 CODA

here was a time, in the not-too- Thus far, I’ve taken on the judiciary, the distant past, when the Office of bureaucracy or permanent government, Tthe President carried with it all and the legislature. Now it’s time to ex- but unprecedented powers. Not unlike the amine the very top—in theory where all great emperors of old, a president could power flows, downward to the rest of the launch wars, proclaim peace, even change government and at the same time, in the the course of history. In a democracy or an best of circumstances, upward from the oligarchy, in political systems far removed people. But all too often in one direc- in every other respect from the traditional tion. And this failing, beyond all others dictatorship, presidents still wielded all of government, is most central to our un- but unfettered power. No longer. derstanding of how rulers rule and how Where once France’s imperial and im- people are governed. perious Charles de Gaulle could launch wars in Algeria and Indochina with bare- Power to the People ly a gesture to the National Assembly In March 1983, there was panic across that met, regularly and futilely, across the a stretch of Africa. Libyan dictator Seine from the Elysées Palace where he Muammar el-Qaddafi was contemplating presided, today François Hollande must an invasion of its neighbor to the south— turn to a deeply fractured parliament for Chad, a country straddling the desert approval on every major and most mi- and jungle. Libyan forces had a clear and nor political decisions. In London, where direct shot across the Sahara and into Winston Churchill and his War Cabinet the heart of Chad. The French, who for could join his American allies in defense a century or more controlled this part of of the Empire, with barely a nod to the Africa, still maintained close economic, House of Commons just down the block, political, and cultural ties with their today his successor David Cameron bows former colony. So it was hardly surprising meekly as the same body spends seven that a detachment of the French Foreign hours shouting down his efforts to join Legion would find its way to the capital, the same American military in Syria, a N’Djamena, as a show of force. At the Middle Eastern state with few clear ties same time, though, the imperious ruler to the British Commonwealth. of Chad put somewhat more faith in Rarely in modern history have chiefs a neighboring dictator—Mobutu Sese of state or government been so handcuffed Seko—president, at least in name, of the as they are today—hostage to the power Democratic Republic of Congo. And if of the electorate, barely able to keep a ever there was an Imperial President, it was single unblinkered eye on how history Mobutu. For 32 years, Mobutu presided, might treat them. all but unchallenged, as ruler of the At the start of this year, I pledged to deeply impoverished nation he renamed devote each of my four Codas to exam- Zaire, amassing a vast personal fortune, ining a different branch of government which, at its peak in 1984, was estimated that directly impacts the people it rules. at $5 billion ($11 billion today). He was

David A. Andelman is editor of World Policy Journal.

112 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 THE EXECUTIVE known to charter a supersonic Concorde down at N’Djamena airport. As both jet for shopping trips to Paris. His power presidents had anticipated, the world press at home and across broad stretches of the turned out. This would be a real specta- African continent was all but unfettered. cle—just the ticket, they both hoped, to It was at this peak of his power that I first show Qaddafi and his forces just what they stumbled across him. would be up against. Or at least provide Hissène Habré, president of belea- quite a nice diversion to distract the lo- guered Chad was an aspiring Mobutu cals from their manifold problems of the character. Cut from the same bolt of cloth, moment. And a spectacle it was. Habre’s he was born in the town of Faya-Largeau, advance team had turned out a respectable an oasis deep in the central Sahara where rent-a-crowd, thousands lining the route daytime temperatures are so high that, from the airport to downtown and in clear- unshaded, they would boil away the ly a festive mood. Then, the plane’s door emulsions of photographic film. Habré opened and out stepped Mobutu. Clad in had come to power in a coup the year be- his signature long leopard-skin toga, a fore I arrived, and quickly moved to ce- leopard cap perched on his head, and enor- ment his hold as president mous mirrored sunglasses, (self-proclaimed, of course), he strode confidently down using a feared secret police mitterand the steps, mounted a colos- organization he created— had in so many sal, customized jeep with the Documentation and tires higher than his shoul- Security Directorate, whose respects perfect ders, stood magisterially methods included spraying pitch when in the back, grasped a tall gas into the eyes, ears, and it came to his ebony staff with gold figure- noses of opponents, forcing head, and signaled the vehi- detainees’ mouths onto the sense of how cle to move slowly down the exhaust pipes of running a president path. Running ahead of it, cars, and a primitive tech- a host of native-clad escorts nique of water boarding that should rule. beat loudly on jungle drums few survived. Now, howev- as the crowd chanted “Mo- er, Habré was anticipating the arrival of BU-tu, Mo-BU-tu, Mo-BU-tu.” It was Qaddafi’s tanks, which seemed likely to awe-inspiring, brilliant jungle theater and follow a route straight through his birth- as consummate a demonstration of presi- place in the desert. So it was hardly sur- dential power as I have ever witnessed. Qa- prising that Chad’s recently-arrived and ddafi, incidentally, never invaded. hardly democratically-elected president, Such dictators in presidents’ clothing might want to hedge his bets and seek still exist, of course, in many corners of some backup from a national leader whose the world. Since independence in 1994, views of governance might be somewhat the former Soviet republic of Belarus more congruent than those of France’s has never known any president but the Socialist President François Mitterrand thoroughly Stalinist Alexander Lukash- 3,000 miles away. Cue Mobutu. enko who has maintained an iron-fisted On Saturday morning, August 20, control over the nation, not to mention 1983, Mobutu’s presidential jet touched influence over its major industries, in-

WINTER 2013 / 2014 113

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 CODA

cluding finance, media, and every other Mitterrand had in so many respects aspect of life in what is effectively a lat- perfect pitch when it came to his sense ter-day gulag sandwiched between Po- of how a president should rule, where land, Russia, and Ukraine. In the tiny In- to pull every lever to achieve maximum dian Ocean island nation of the Maldives, impact. Even as the power of his office its president, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was slipping away from the vast hold hung onto office for some 30 years, and exerted by Charles de Gaulle, Mitterrand appears still to be pulling strings as his did his level best to slow the progress. nation seeks to lurch toward a semblance One late afternoon, Foreign Minister of democracy. Gayoom has accumulated Claude Cheysson had concluded a partic- little wealth on the scale of Teodoro Obi- ularly sensitive diplomatic negotiation at ang Nguema Mbasogo, the Quai d’Orsay and was who’s served as president of exiting the foreign ministry oil-rich Equatorial Guinea presidential in haste, running the gaunt- since August 1979 and leadership, let of a scrum of French is said to have amassed a and western journalists. I personal net worth in ex- indeed thrust my CBS microphone cess of $600 million. These leadership of in front of him and asked and a host of other world any stripe, him a question in English, leaders, while bearing the to which Cheysson replied, title of president, maintain has become reflexively in his impeccable many of the trappings of seriously English, then disappeared hereditary monarchs that diluted. into his black Citroen before still proliferate across the my French homologue could Persian Gulf littoral and assorted Asian interrogate him in French. Each evening kingdoms. Each rules as he wills, with at the Elysées, Mitterrand would convene barely a nod to those he holds in his sway. a group of his ministers and counselors Lukashenko, for instance, warns he is all to watch the “Journal de 20 Heures,” the that stands between his people and utter eight o’clock national evening news. That instability, broad poverty that has en- particular evening, French TV was com- slaved vast stretches of the former Soviet pelled to use my sound bite in English of Union, and the depredations of powerful Cheysson, subtitled in French. “What an Russian mafia crime families. embarrassment,” an appalled Mitterrand sniffed. “A French minister speaking in Sublime to the Ridiculous English on French television.” Trust me, If these serve as one extreme of the it never happened again. After that, it Presidency, today’s France is perhaps became all but impossible to obtain an the other. François Hollande is a far cry English sound bite from a single member from the nation’s last Socialist president, of the French government. his imperial and imperious namesake, But it was not simply cosmetics. It François Mitterrand—a leader in control was every aspect of politics, society, and of every word spoken by any in his economics that Mitterrand and his small administration, every act and action band of counselors controlled for 14 that flowed from the Elysées Palace. years—the longest any French president

114 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 THE EXECUTIVE

will ever again a leader.” The rule. In 2000, the immediate con- constitution was text is France’s amended to pro- growing eco- vide a maximum of two five-year terms. nomic crisis—Fressoz writing the morn- Three presidents later, however, much ing after Standard & Poor’s dropped the more has changed. François Hollande finds nation’s credit rating to AA from AA+, himself in a pickle that is deeply reflec- and this just a year after it lost its AAA tive of many of his fellow presidents—but sovereign rating. Hollande has found it with far less room for maneuver. as impossible to drag his nation out of it His “dilemma is terrible,” writes Fran- slough of despair as had his right-wing çoise Fressoz, the brilliant editorialist of predecessor, Nicolas Sarokozy. Indeed, in the leading French daily Le Monde, “be- November, his popularity plummeted to cause recognizing his strategic errors while a pathetic 20 percent—the lowest since de in office in turn undermines still further Gaulle formed the Fifth Republic in 1958, his presidential credibility, but continues when polling first began in France. LEZ to sap his ability to function. François In part, this sapping of the Imperial N G E I Hollande may well have all presidential Presidency is a question of atmospherics, AM

D powers but is powerless to assert himself as and is by no means confined to France.

WINTER 2013 / 2014 115

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 CODA

In this multi-polar world, where popula- hang around for seven years, with a maxi- tions are bombarded by a host of stimuli mum of three terms—in theory. In prac- and a broad range of voices clamoring to tice, he’s held office since 1994 and shows be heard, each offering apparently appeal- no signs of fading into retirement. The ing solutions, presidential leadership, in- same open-ended tenure holds true, in- deed leadership of any stripe, has become cidentally, for the president of Italy, but seriously diluted. that’s largely a ceremonial post, and the In 1980, when I arrived in Paris for incumbent serves pretty much at the will the debut of Mitterrand’s presidency, and of parliament anyway. The presidents of even when I returned to the United States the Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Sen- seven years later, there was no Internet. egal, Uzbekistan, and Ireland (another Each evening, there was a national news largely ceremonial post) are each allowed broadcast on each of the two state-owned two seven-year terms. television networks that presented the in- ner workings of the government and its Transformative Power ministers, along with some leavening of This list demonstrates that today, few sensational murders, the doings of film truly democratically elected presidents or fashion stars and, of course, sports and have the same power and reach as their weather. The next morning, a half dozen predecessors. The only remaining Imperial newspapers catered to various political Presidents are those who have largely persuasions—from the far-left L’Humanite, usurped their authority and retain the owned by the French Communist Party, office in name only. But this shift in the through liberal Libération to the centrist power balance, this diffusion of power, has Le Monde and winding up with the conser- led to some profound disconnects on the vative Le Figaro. But it was the president world stage and the ability to conclude any who was the lodestone of government, fi- transformative initiatives. nance, society—la patrie, the homeland. This past summer, when elected a Today, that is no longer the case. France, new and somewhat freethinking president, along with much of the civilized world, Iranians rejoiced. Hassan Rouhani was at has been barraged by forces competing for first blush a truly fresh breeze compared attention and allegiance. with his knuckle-headed predecessor. He France’s decision to trim the terms of quickly acknowledged that millions of its presidents was only an outward mani- Jews might indeed have been incinerated festation of a deeper transformation of the in a Nazi Holocaust that was not histori- presidency across the globe. Sharply cir- cal fiction. He was prepared to take Presi- cumscribed term limits are now the rule dent Obama’s phone call in Teheran and rather than the exception. Indeed, only the chat amiably for some minutes (though profoundly dysfunctional and dictatorial a handshake at the United Nations may leaders of Belarus and Uganda boast no have been a bit of a stretch at the mo- term limits for their heads of state. Serbia ment). His negotiators returned quickly to and Venezuela offer an unlimited number the bargaining table with the five perma- of terms for their presidents, respectively nent members of the Security Council plus five and six years at a stretch. Tajikistan Germany in an effort to broker some prog- lets its presdent, Emomali Rahmonov, ress that could put a hold on his nation’s

116 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 THE EXECUTIVE nuclear ambitions, while at the same time with much of the civilized world. In short, lifting the collection of sanctions that was do Russian President Vladimir Putin and strangling the Iranian economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping really want But here again, the sharply circum- their nations to be perceived by much of scribed powers of the presidency, on both the world as pariahs? sides of the table, reasserted themselves. Which brings us to the next set of On the Iranian side, neither the president constraints on the power of today’s Impe- nor his foreign minister had much control rial Presidency—international image. In over such an existential issue. The ruler of earlier times, it was possible for a national a nearby Middle Eastern nation suggested leader to conclude a pact with little refer- as much to me as the first round of these ence to forces outside his immediate en- talks was getting under- tourage. At the Paris peace way. “Rouhani may be able conference that led to the to do a lot internally,” this for russia, the Treaty of Versailles ending monarch observed. “He has , the leaders of a wide margin of maneuver all powerful Britain, France, and Italy on the economy, but when presidency is dictated the terms of peace it comes to foreign and stra- crumbling as to a vanquished Germany, tegic affairs, there’s only one Austria-Hungary, and al- individual who’s pulling all rapidly as in ready enfeebled Ottoman the strings.” And that’s the any western Empire. America’s Wood- Supreme Leader, the Grand democracy. row Wilson largely went Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. along as a means of achiev- Of course, on the other ing his principal goal—cre- side of the table, the issue was not dis- ation of a League of Nations—though his similar. There may be no grand ayatollah failure to consult with Congress led ulti- or other religious figure behind the cur- mately to an ignominious end to that en- tains, but the ability of the presidents of tire exercise. But of particular interest in the United States, France, Russia, China, this context were the delegations of Japan the British prime minister, even the chan- and China—headed respectively by the cellor of Germany are equally constrained shadowy figures of Prince Saionji Kim- when it comes to arriving at a bargain on mochi, last of the great genros, member as transformative an initiative as an Ira- of an ancient royal family from the impe- nian nuclear weapons program. President rial city of Kyoto; and an equally vener- Obama has problems with a broad swath of able Lou Tseng-Tsiang. Neither was ever Congress that favors tightening sanctions seen in public. Each confined himself to rather than loosening them and would pre- pulling strings from behind his respec- fer Iran return to the era of hand-cranked tive curtain, allowing his diplomats and telephones and candles. The presidents of politicians to mime in public the words Russia and China have far more margin of they had so carefully crafted. maneuver, but their hands are tied by their previously enunciated commitments to Commitments supporting Iranian aspirations that would Today, though, no such tricks of power appear to lead in a direction less in tune have much impact. The stakes are much

WINTER 2013 / 2014 117

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 CODA

higher and far more nuanced. Every day, the Russian establishment. But Russia’s business and financial interests must principal currency, oil, is fading in value make commitments. Such choices may and desirability. While Russia may have have profound effects on the course of passed Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest a nation’s economic development and oil producer, the value of that commodity vitality—where to manufacture that next rises and, lately falls, with the ebb and generation electronic device, where to flow of international crises, especially in build that dam or power project, where the Middle East oil belt. But even such to prospect for oil, coal, or precious events are of diminishing value as a de- minerals. Such decisions terminant of oil demand. are based on a complex The United States, the calculus of country risk, now power world’s leading oil consum- reliability, and confidence rests on the er, is now approaching self- in leadership at the top, sufficiency, while the num- and of consistency, honesty, good will of ber three consumer, China, and continuity. corporate makes its own side deals in Russia, with its leader titans who are far corners of the globe. So heading into his third de- what is an oil-poor oligarch cade of all but unchallenged the presidents like Putin to do? No longer power, is falling rapidly be- of the new a , Russia has hind on almost every score. empires. been reduced to at most a Putin is ostensibly the regional bully and at worst most powerful of any elected president a very occasional spoiler in global affairs. today—the closest in form and function But above all, a bad bet when it comes to to the leaders of Soviet Russia, a true long-term, capital-intensive investment. heir to the tsars a millennium or more In this vital respect, the only good before him. Who else among the lead- president in today’s context is one who ers of major nations in today’s world has can be counted on to maintain a certain been able to leave, then return to office, modicum of consistency and intelligence while never for a moment ceding control in the use or distribution of power—over over his nation? Yet Putin is as hobbled the judiciary, legislature, and bureau- as any of his western counterparts by cracies that we’ve observed in this space forces within his own borders that are earlier this year. In a so-called pure de- every bit as pernicious as those nibbling mocracy, of course, there is the concept at the foundations of Obama, Hollande, of checks and balances—designed by or Cameron. For Russia—a self-styled America’s Founding Fathers to restrain democracy, though effectively and func- the powers they were preparing to be- tionally an oligarchy—the all powerful stow on a single leader, the president. presidency is crumbling as rapidly as Indeed, there is one paramount differ- in any western democracy. For Putin to ence between the president and the other maintain his all but unchallenged power, components of a democratic government he must pay off those who helped him we’ve been examining. His (or hers) is rise to the top and who now keep him the only branch whose powers are con- there—the oligarchs, or kleptocrats, of trolled by a single individual. In a sense,

118 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 THE EXECUTIVE we’ve arrived at the crux of the modern on their family unit rather than the state presidency. As Louis XIV was so fond of to guarantee their well-being. In the end, saying, “l’état, c’est moi,” (the state, it is however, international business has beaten I). For a president in today’s world, that a path to China’s door with major invest- is no less true. The problem, of course, is ments, contracts, and commerce that mark that in the ensuing centuries, forces with- a nation and its leader as a success in the in and outside the government have been modern world. China remains one of the chipping away at these unitary powers. rare major nations with a president who But particularly on the economic front, can today truly be considered imperial in where power ultimately resides. the classic pre-modern sense. Perhaps we Today, this is the principal presidential need to reflect carefully on the value of currency. Where once the power of presi- such power—wielded wisely and honest- dents rose and fell as a function of geo- ly and in the interests of the many rather political empires, the maintenance of sea than a few. Oligarchies and autocracies lanes or communications between colonies cannot truly build foundations of transpar- in far corners of the globe (remember the ency and openness. And yet, at the same days when the sun never set on the Brit- time, there is an unclaimed neutral ground ish Empire?), now power rests on the good where wise rulers may exercise a broader will of corporate titans who are the presi- range of authority and creativity. dents of the new empires. Where Mercedes or Fiat, Ford or General Motors will build T oothless Monarchs their new assembly plants; where Apple or So where do we go from here? How a Samsung will assemble their newest smart president may reclaim his or her power, phone; where BP or BHP will prospect for reassert a claim on history, and shape oil or nickel or rare earths, underwriting the nature of the global dialogue are the rail links and pipelines to bring these all very much open to question in these commodities to market—are the currency days of diminishing Imperial Power. of power for today’s presidents. Appearances would suggest that the Elsewhere in this issue of our maga- Imperial Presidency is on a permanent zine, we examine the contrasts of India downward slope. Still, all is not lost, and and China—the former with a real and for a reason very peculiar to the core of apparently functioning democracy, the lat- the power of today’s modern president ter with a centrally planned government, presiding in any form of a democracy. but both led by presidents. Many Chinese, A president, no matter how narrowly while lusting after some form of democ- victorious in a free and fair election, arrives racy in which they might play a role in in office with a substantial reservoir of putting their president in power, sniff at good will. Let’s use the analogy of a large the true democracy of India as a cacophony barrel, filled to the brim with fresh water of competing interests—tied hopelessly that represents power, reach, and influence. in bureaucratic knots, living in confusion It is accompanied by a ladle. For each ini- and filth, with little opportunity to accu- tiative, each crisis, each real or perceived mulate any real wealth. Indians, by con- opportunity, the president dips into the trast, revel in their ability to speak and act barrel, removing a tiny dollop, or a brim- freely, choose their own leaders, and rely ming ladle. On occasion, the president

WINTER 2013 / 2014 119

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014 CODA

may believe that circumstances dictate far Of course, giants do still walk the more than a ladle-full, and the barrel itself earth—if not in the form of mere mor- is tipped over, quantities flowing out. All tals, then in the form of the systems they too often, the novice, eager to demonstrate represent. Never before in history have so a quick, though often Pyrrhic victory, dips many people lived under forms of gov- too frequently or too deeply into this bar- ernment that could be seen to represent rel. How judiciously our president uses what they desire, what is most in line this reservoir suggests directly the nature with their hopes and dreams for a rich and course of power and reach. But there and meaningful life. At the same time, is one ineluctable constant. Once that bar- Imperial Presidents are no longer able, rel is empty, it can be replenished only by with a stroke of a pen, to dispense half of returning to the electorate for a new man- to a communist dictator, as did date whenever the constitution of that na- Roosevelt at Yalta, or enslave vast regions tion may provide. In times of existential under colonial servitude, as the Western crises—the two world wars of the last cen- powers decreed at the debut of the 20th tury, the , 9/11, in the century. Today’s reins on the Imperial case of Israel, the Yom Kippur and Six Day Presidency may produce fewer unilateral, wars—such a paradigm may be suspended certainly less dramatic transitions, but as all cluster around this barrel and replen- it is incumbent on each of us to choose ish whatever may be necessary to empower wisely in designating whose hand should the leader in question with all the trap- be allowed to wield the ladle as it dips pings of Imperial Presidents of old. into the drum of power and influence. l

120 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 16, 2014