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POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Ron Lesthaeghe On theory VOLUME 24 NUMBER 1 development and applications to the M A R C H 1 9 9 8 study of family formation Caroline Bledsoe, Fatoumatta Banja, and Allan G. Hill Reproductive mishaps and Western contraception: An African challenge to fertility theory Antonio Golini How low can fertility be? An empirical exploration Martin Brockerhoff and Ellen Brennan The poverty of cities in developing regions Notes and Commentary F.A.B. Meyerson on the Kyoto Protocol and the role of population Data and Perspectives A. Marcoux on the feminization of poverty Archives Sir James Steuart on the causes of human multiplication Book Reviews Review essay by E. van de Walle; reviews by J.C. Caldwell, J.C. Riley, D.I. Kertzer, E.A. Marcelli, C.M. Obermeyer, and others Documents UN world population projections to 2150; Climate change and the Kyoto agreement Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. EDITOR Paul Demeny MANAGING EDITOR Ethel P. Churchill EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Paul Demeny, Chair Geoffrey McNicoll Ethel P. Churchill Michael P. Todaro Susan Greenhalgh EDITORIAL STAFF Robert Heidel, Production Editor Y. Christina Tse, Production/Design Margaret A. Knoll, Circulation Sura Rosenthal / Heidi Neurauter, Production ADVISORY BOARD Ester Boserup Akin L. Mabogunje Gustavo Cabrera Milos˘ Macura John C. Caldwell Carmen A. Miró Mercedes B. Concepción Asok Mitra Richard A. Easterlin Samuel H. Preston Signed articles are the responsibility of the authors. Views expressed in the Review do not necessarily reflect the views of the Population Council. Direct manuscripts, comments on articles, and correspondence to: Population and Development Review Population Council One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA Subscription information appears on the inside back cover. Support from the United Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged. Volumes are available on microfilm from University Microfilms, Inc., 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106. The website for Population and Development Review is www. popcouncil.org/pdr The full contents of Volumes 1–19 (1975–93) are available through participating libraries from JSTOR at www.jstor.org/journals/00987921.html Population and Development Review (ISSN 0098-7921) is published quarterly in March, June, September, and December by the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 USA. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Population and Development Review, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. © 1998 by The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 75-27311 ISSN 0098-7921 Information for Subscribers Population and Development Review is available on a paid subscription basis at the following rates: One year (4 issues) US$32.00 Two years (8 issues) US$60.00 To enter a subscription, send payment by check or money order drawn on a US bank, payable to the Population Council, or by Visa or MasterCard (provide card number and expiration date), together with mailing address to: Population and Development Review Population Council One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA Credit card orders may also be placed by phone to (212) 339-0514, by fax to (212) 755-6052, or by e-mail to [email protected] Complimentary subscriptions Complimentary subscriptions are available to qualified applicants residing in developing countries. Individuals and institutions wishing to apply for complimentary subscriptions should send requests on letterhead stationery to the above address stating the nature of professional involvement in development- and population-related issues. Back issues Casebound (hardcover) volumes are available at $45.00 each. Single back issues are available at $8.00 per issue. Please designate copies desired by volume and issue number. Orders may be placed by mail, phone, fax, or e-mail as indicated above. Complimentary copies are available to qualified individuals residing in developing countries. A twenty-year cumulative index to Volumes 1–20 (1975–94) is available at no charge to subscribers to the Review. Printed on recycled paper in the USA. POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW VOLUME 24 NUMBER 1 M A R C H 1998 ARTICLES On Theory Development: Applications to the Study of Family Formation 1 RON LESTHAEGHE Reproductive Mishaps and Western Contraception: An African Challenge to Fertility Theory 15 CAROLINE BLEDSOE FATOUMATTA BANJA ALLAN G. HILL How Low Can Fertility Be? An Empirical Exploration 59 ANTONIO GOLINI The Poverty of Cities in Developing Regions 75 MARTIN BROCKERHOFF ELLEN BRENNAN NOTES AND COMMENTARY Population, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming: The Forgotten Relationship at Kyoto 115 FREDERICK A. B. MEYERSON DATA AND PERSPECTIVES The Feminization of Poverty: Claims, Facts, and Data Needs 131 ALAIN MARCOUX ARCHIVES Sir James Steuart on the Causes of Human Multiplication 141 BOOK REVIEWS Piercing the Fogs of Time: Europe’s Early Population History A Review Essay on Jean-Pierre Bardet and Jacques Dupâquier (eds.), Histoire des populations de l’Europe, Vol. I ETIENNE VAN DE WALLE 149 David I. Kertzer and Tom Fricke (eds.), Anthropological Demography: Toward a New Synthesis JOHN C. CALDWELL 158 Alan Macfarlane, The Savage Wars of Peace: England, Japan and the Malthusian Trap JAMES C. RILEY 161 David S. Reher, Perspectives on the Family in Spain, Past and Present DAVID I. KERTZER 164 James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston (eds.), The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration ENRICO ANTHONY MARCELLI 166 Youssef Courbage and Philippe Fargues, Christians and Jews under Islam CARLA MAKHLOUF OBERMEYER 169 Short Reviews 171 DOCUMENTS United Nations World Population Projections to 2150 183 The Council of Economic Advisers on Climate Change and the Kyoto Agreement 189 ABSTRACTS 195 AUTHORS FOR THIS ISSUE 202 On Theory Development: Applications to the Study of Family Formation RON LESTHAEGHE IN 1992 GEOFFREY MCNICOLL drew up an “agenda for population studies” in which he warned about the danger of demography’s contracting to its “accountancy core,” that is, to its technical and statistical home base. Such a fear was obviously inspired by a continuing “encroachment” of other so- cial sciences such as sociology, history, anthropology, and especially eco- nomics into the classic domain—largely defined by a small set of depen- dent variables—of demography. Nathan Keyfitz in 1984 felt similarly that “[D]emography has withdrawn from its borders and has left a no man’s land which other disciplines have infiltrated.” We share no such fears and voice no such complaints. Rather, such “encroachments” are felicitous for the social sciences because they open up new opportunities for advancement. McNicoll notices these expanding opportunities: “Rounded explanation, cross-disciplinary range, awareness of theoretical frontiers and historical contingency, and the critical stance that an outsider can bring to self-regarding disciplinary cultures all can work in favor of demography as serious social science as well as (not to be scorned) a neat ordering of events on the Lexis plane.” Indeed, in surveying theo- retical work written in the 1990s, we have found several reassessments of demographic theories (e.g., Smith 1989; Pollak and Watkins 1993; Burch 1995, 1996, 1997; Hobcraft and Kiernan 1995; Kirk 1996; van de Kaa 1996). In this essay, we shall limit our attention to the subfield of fertility theo- ries, but it is clear that theories of migration, for instance, are facing simi- lar challenges (e.g., Massey et al. 1993). In the reassessments of fertility theories, we detect three types: —“disciplinary soccer games” where demography, by virtue of its multi- disciplinarity, becomes the arena for opposing theories and interpretations. POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 24(1):1–14 (MARCH 1998)1 Click to print article Click Clickto return to returnto Table to of Table Contents of Contents 2 O N THEORY DEVELOPMENT In itself there is nothing wrong with testing theory H1 against theory H2 or empirical evidence E1 against E2, provided of course that H1 and H2 or E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive. But such soccer games deteriorate when opponents settle old scores, when positions become entrenched, and when science becomes a question of belief or commitment. This often leads to the presentation of methodologically flawed research that is supposed to enhance the supremacy of one paradigm or disciplinary approach over the other (see also Burch 1996). —“the show room approach” in which the different approaches and para- digms coexist and are presented as separate narratives, as distinct “good stories.” Dirk van de Kaa (1996) describes a “good narrative” by the fol- lowing two characteristics: (a) an easily identifiable central action (such as a statistical account of differentials during a fertility transition) and (b) a setting that allows for an easy interpretation of that action (such as a “wealth flow” reversal). According to van de Kaa, fertility theories have not pro- gressed much beyond “anchored narratives” that live side by side. The ad- jective “anchored” refers to the plausibility of supporting evidence, and a well-anchored narrative typically consists of sub-narratives that tell the story in greater detail. Such sub-narratives are, according to van de Kaa, often nested and they can be ordered hierarchically from the “general” to the “highly precise or detailed.” The question is, of course, whether there exist ways of integrating such separate narratives or, alternatively, whether the social sciences, including demography, will fail to achieve a sufficiently high degree of sophistication that lifts them beyond anchored but still compart- mentalized narratives. —“the jigsaw puzzle approach” in which we have no a priori grand view of what the picture represents, but a growing collection of pieces of evi- dence (E1, E2, E3 . .) and theoretical insights (H1, H2, H3 .
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