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Statistical Downscaling of Island Sea Levels in the Southwest Pacific : a Multiple Linear Regression Approach Vandhna Kumar

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Statistical Downscaling of Island Sea Levels in the Southwest Pacific : a Multiple Linear Regression Approach Vandhna Kumar Statistical downscaling of island sea levels in the southwest Pacific : a multiple linear regression approach Vandhna Kumar To cite this version: Vandhna Kumar. Statistical downscaling of island sea levels in the southwest Pacific : a multiple linear regression approach. Oceanography. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2019. English. NNT : 2019TOU30234. tel-02957675 HAL Id: tel-02957675 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02957675 Submitted on 5 Oct 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. THÈSE En vue de l’obtention du DOCTORAT DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE Délivré par l'Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier Présentée et soutenue par Vandhna KUMAR LeLe 8 18Novem octobre 2019 Descente d'échelle statistique du niveau de la mer pour les îles du Paci-que Sud-Ouest - une approche de régression linéaire multiple Ecole doctorale : SDU2E - Sciences de l'Univers, de l'Environnement et de l'Espace Spécialité : Océan, Atmosphère, Climat Unité de recherche : LEGOS - Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale Thèse dirigée par Alexandre GANACHAUD Jury M. Christophe MAES, Rapporteur Mme MélanieMme Mé BECKER, Rapporteure Mme Luciana FENOGLIO, Examinatrice Mme Déborah IDIER, Examinatrice M. Alexandre GANACHAUD, Directeur de thèse Mme Elisabeth HOLLAND, Co-directrice de thèse Mme Angélique MELET, Invitée M. Nicholas HALL, Établissement inscription, rang A Statistical downscaling of island sea levels in the southwest Pacific – a multiple linear regression approach by Vandhna D. Kumar A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier in co-supervision with University of the South Pacific Copyright © 2019 by Vandhna D. Kumar Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie (LEGOS), Toulouse Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PaCE-SD), Suva Acknowledgements I am grateful to many for their support and encouragement throughout this incredible thesis journey; I owe its sweet success and the many memories created along the way to them… I would like to start with two of my pioneering mentors in the quest – Helene Jacot Des Combes, who was my supervisor from back during my Masters at PaCE-SD, and Dr. Awnesh Singh, who had freshly joined us as a postdoc back then. Their support kept me motivated in the direst days of my PhD opportunity hunt. Eventually, through them, I was introduced to Alexandre Ganachaud, who was looking for a student, and who later became my thesis director. I extend heartfelt gratitude to my sponsors – the IPCC, IRD ARTS, and the USP Research office for jointly funding my study and for their commendable collaboration. I thank PaCE-SD, USP for being my home institution and for hosting me during my trips to Fiji. May our institutions continue to foster these exemplary partnerships as we strive towards resistance and capacity building against climate change in the Pacific. Sincere thanks to my thesis director, Alex Ganachaud, a brilliant mentor and leader of our pedagogic committee. I continued to learn from your methodological approach and your proficiency, and am grateful for your continuous guidance. Big thanks to co-supervsior, Angélique Melet, whose efficiency and dedication to reviewing my numerous drafts remains unmatched. It was my good fortune to have your expertise in the team, and I thank you deeply for your commitment. I thank co-supervisor, Benoit Meyssignac, a true genius if I’ve met one. I remember days of perplexation and seemingly dead ends, only for them to be whisked away in seconds during discussions with Benoit. Special thanks to co-supervisor Jerome Aucan, who contributed substantially despite being based far away from us, in Nouméa. Credit goes to Jerome for merging the two formerly separate tide gauge records for Nouméa and for recovering older records that had only existed in paper before. His contribution was not only towards the thesis, but to the larger sea level research community as well. I also thank Jerome for his assistance with my tide gauge data analysis. Great contribution was also made by Billy Kessler, who provided the Rossby wave model used in this work. This was a key component of the analysis, and I thank Billy for his swift response and for sharing his expertise. It was a pleasure working with you, dear Billy. I thank co-supervisor Awnesh Singh, our right-hand man for all our dealings with home institution, PaCE-SD, USP, back in Fiji. Thank-you for proficiently juggling the academic and administrative challenges this collaboration entailed. Last but not least from our pedagogic committee, co-director Elisabeth Holland. Dear Elisabeth – I will be ever grateful for your support, understanding, and encouragement. In the ups and downs i of my academic endeavors at PaCE-SD, I thank-you for being my rock. And thank-you for coming all the way from Fiji to attend my thesis defense. The journey would not have been the same without my good friends and peers, of course! Hearty thanks to my peers/mentors at LEGOS – Marine, Alice, Cori, Lise, Alejandro, Elvan, Hindu, Simon, Mariana, Fifi, Michel, and Cyril. I also thank Elodie, Malek, and Sylvain, and from PaCE-SD, Linda Yuen. And to my dearest friends Da and Sara, who I met at LEGOS – yours are the friendships I will forever cherish. Amidst the conversations and company of this lively circle, I always managed to find my strength whenever it was dwindling. I am also very grateful to the LEGOS secretaries - Brigitte, Agathe, and especially Martine and Nadine for their constant assistance and support in all administrative matters. Special thanks for the warmth and welcome with which you always receive students. Back at home, to my best friends Deepak and Shirleen – I am eternally grateful for your support and encouragement in my academic life and beyond. And to Nanna Emerly, with her kind and giving heart. Thank-you for being part of my thesis journey… I dedicate this thesis to Ziad, who has always stood by my side. ii The sea, at last, was as much his element as the land. - Armstrong Sperry, The Boy Who Was Afraid (Call it Courage) iii iv Auteur: Vandhna D. Kumar Directeur de thèse: Alexandre Ganachaud Titré de thèse: Descente d'échelle statistique du niveau de la mer pour les îles du Pacifique Sud-Ouest - une approche de régression linéaire multiple Discipline: Océanographie Physique Lieu et date de soutenance: Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, 8 Novembre, 2019 Laboratoire: LEGOS, UMR5566 CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, OMP, 14 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400, Toulouse, France. Résumé: L'élévation du niveau de la mer est une préoccupation croissante dans les îles du Pacifique. Au cours de l'ère altimétrique (depuis 1993), les taux d'élévation du niveau de la mer sur le Pacific tropical ouest ont été parmi les plus élevés du monde, atteignant jusqu'à 3-4 fois la moyenne globale. Alors que de plus en plus de communautés soumises aux risques associés à cette hausse du niveau de la mer se déplacent vers des terres plus élevées pour échapper à la montée des eaux, il est impératif de disposer de prédictions du niveau de la mer à l'échelle locale pour faciliter le processus d'adaptation et de planification. Ce processus n'est pas simple car le niveau de la mer varie d'une région à l'autre, notamment en fonction des redistributions de chaleur, sel et masses opérées aux échelles régionales par la circulation océanique, et des modes climatiques dominants (par exemple, ENSO, PDO/IPO). Même à l'échelle locale, d'importants changements du niveau de la mer relatif peuvent résulter de mouvements verticaux naturels ou anthropiques du sol terrestre. Motivée par ces préoccupations, cette thèse se concentre sur l'utilisation d'une technique de descente d’échelle statistique basée sur des régressions linéaires multiples (MLR) pour modéliser les variations interannuelles-à-interdécennales du niveau de la mer pour trois sites côtiers localisés sur des îles du Pacifique Sud-Ouest - Suva et Lautoka à Fidji, et Nouméa en Nouvelle-Calédonie. Le modèle MLR est basé sur la connaissance que les variations du niveau de la mer à ces échelles de temps dans le Pacifique tropical sont principalement de nature thermostérique (c.-à-d. provenant des changements de densité de l’eau de mer induits par des changements de température de l'océan) et que ces variations thermostériques sont principalement générées par les variations de forçage de vent et les ondes de Rossby se propageant vers l’ouest qui en résultent. Les expériences de MLR sont menées sur la période d'étude 1988-2014, l'accent étant mis sur la variabilité interannuelle à décennale et les tendances du niveau de la mer. Le niveau de la mer pour les trois sites côtiers insulaires est d'abord exprimé sous forme de somme des variations stériques et de masse. Dans un second temps, les modèles MLR développés se basent sur une approche plus orientée processus, en utilisant le rotationnel de tension de vent comme approximation de la composante thermostérique. Le niveau de la mer des îles est alors perçu comme une combinaison de composantes globale, régionales et locales, la seconde étant dominante. Le modèle MLR utilise le rotationnel de la tension de vent pour forcer un modèle v linéaire des ondes de Rossby. Les anomalies du niveau de la mer issues du modèle de Rossby sont utilisées comme régresseur régional dominant, alors que la composante halostérique locale (provenant des changements de densité de l’eau de mer induits par des changements de salinité de l'océan), la tension de vent locale et la température de surface de la mer locale sont utilisés comme régresseurs mineurs.
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