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The Recent Increase of Atmospheric Methane from 10 Years of Ground-Based NDACC FTIR Observations Since 2005

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The Recent Increase of Atmospheric Methane from 10 Years of Ground-Based NDACC FTIR Observations Since 2005 University of Wollongong Research Online Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health - Papers Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health 2017 The ecer nt increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005 Whitney Bader University of Liege, University of Toronto Benoit Bovy University of Liege Stephanie Conway University of Toronto Kimberly Strong University of Toronto, [email protected] D Smale National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand See next page for additional authors Publication Details Bader, W., Bovy, B., Conway, S., Strong, K., Smale, D., Turner, A. J., Blumenstock, T., Boone, C., Coen, M., Coulon, A., Griffith,. D W. T., Jones, N., Paton-Walsh, C. et al (2017). The er cent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17 (3), 2255-2277. Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] The ecer nt increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground- based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005 Abstract Changes of atmospheric methane total columns (CH4) since 2005 have been evaluated using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar observations carried out at 10 ground-based sites, affiliated to the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From this, we find na increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year-1 (2σ level of uncertainty) for the 2005-2014 period. Comparisons with in situ methane measurements at both local and global scales show good agreement. We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model tagged simulation, which accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane, simulated over 2005-2012. After regridding according to NDACC vertical layering using a conservative regridding scheme and smoothing by convolving with respective FTIR seasonal averaging kernels, the GEOS-Chem simulation shows an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.35 ± 0.03 % year-1 between 2005 and 2012, which is in agreement with NDACC measurements over the same time period (0.30 ± 0.04 % year-1, averaged over 10 stations). Analysis of the GEOS-Chem-Tagged simulation allows us to quantify the contribution of each tracer to the global methane change since 2005. We find that natural sources such as wetlands and biomass burning contribute to the interannual variability of methane. However, anthropogenic emissions, such as coal mining, and gas and oil transport and exploration, which are mainly emitted in the Northern Hemisphere and act as secondary contributors to the global budget of methane, have played a major role in the increase of atmospheric methane observed since 2005. Based on the GEOS-Chem-Tagged simulation, we discuss possible cause(s) for the increase of methane since 2005, which is still unexplained. Disciplines Medicine and Health Sciences | Social and Behavioral Sciences Publication Details Bader, W., Bovy, B., Conway, S., Strong, K., Smale, D., Turner, A. J., Blumenstock, T., Boone, C., Coen, M., Coulon, A., Griffith,. D W. T., Jones, N., Paton-Walsh, C. et al (2017). The er cent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17 (3), 2255-2277. Authors Whitney Bader, Benoit Bovy, Stephanie Conway, Kimberly Strong, D Smale, Alexander J. Turner, Thomas Blumenstock, C D. Boone, Martine Collaud Coen, Ancelin Coulon, David W. T Griffith,icho N las B. Jones, and Clare Paton-Walsh This journal article is available at Research Online: http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers/4548 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2255–2277, 2017 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/2255/2017/ doi:10.5194/acp-17-2255-2017 © Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License. The recent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005 Whitney Bader1,2, Benoît Bovy1, Stephanie Conway2, Kimberly Strong2, Dan Smale3, Alexander J. Turner4, Thomas Blumenstock5, Chris Boone6, Martine Collaud Coen7, Ancelin Coulon8, Omaira Garcia9, David W. T. Griffith10, Frank Hase5, Petra Hausmann11, Nicholas Jones10, Paul Krummel12, Isao Murata13, Isamu Morino14, Hideaki Nakajima14, Simon O’Doherty15, Clare Paton-Walsh10, John Robinson3, Rodrigue Sandrin2, Matthias Schneider5, Christian Servais1, Ralf Sussmann11, and Emmanuel Mahieu1 1Institute of Astrophysics and Geophysics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium 2Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada 3National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA, Lauder, New Zealand 4School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA 5Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-ASF), Karlsruhe, Germany 6Department of Chemistry, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada 7Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, 1530 Payerne, Switzerland 8Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 9Izana Atmospheric Research Centre (IARC), Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Izaña, Spain 10School of Chemistry, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia 11Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany 12CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia 13Graduate School of Environment Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578, Japan 14National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan 15Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group (ACRG), School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK Correspondence to: Whitney Bader ([email protected]) Received: 2 August 2016 – Discussion started: 9 August 2016 Revised: 10 January 2017 – Accepted: 14 January 2017 – Published: 14 February 2017 Abstract. Changes of atmospheric methane total columns seasonal averaging kernels, the GEOS-Chem simulation (CH4/ since 2005 have been evaluated using Fourier trans- shows an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of form infrared (FTIR) solar observations carried out at 10 0.35 ± 0.03 % year−1 between 2005 and 2012, which is in ground-based sites, affiliated to the Network for Detection agreement with NDACC measurements over the same time of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From this, period (0.30 ± 0.04 % year−1, averaged over 10 stations). we find an increase of atmospheric methane total columns Analysis of the GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation allows us to of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year−1 (2σ level of uncertainty) for the quantify the contribution of each tracer to the global methane 2005–2014 period. Comparisons with in situ methane mea- change since 2005. We find that natural sources such as surements at both local and global scales show good agree- wetlands and biomass burning contribute to the interannual ment. We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model variability of methane. However, anthropogenic emissions, tagged simulation, which accounts for the contribution of such as coal mining, and gas and oil transport and explo- each emission source and one sink in the total methane, ration, which are mainly emitted in the Northern Hemisphere simulated over 2005–2012. After regridding according to and act as secondary contributors to the global budget of NDACC vertical layering using a conservative regridding methane, have played a major role in the increase of atmo- scheme and smoothing by convolving with respective FTIR spheric methane observed since 2005. Based on the GEOS- Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2256 W. Bader et al.: The recent increase of atmospheric methane Chem-tagged simulation, we discuss possible cause(s) for over the past 3 decades (World Meteorological Organiza- the increase of methane since 2005, which is still unex- tion, 2014). From the 1980s until the beginning of the plained. 1990s, atmospheric methane was rising sharply by about ∼ 0.7 % year−1 (Nisbet et al., 2014) but stabilized during the 1999–2006 time period (Dlugokencky, 2003). Many studies were dedicated to the analysis of methane trends, in par- 1 Introduction ticular the stabilization of methane concentrations between 1999 and 2006, and various scenarios have been suggested. Atmospheric methane (CH4/, a relatively long-lived atmo- They include reduced global fossil-fuel-related emissions spheric species with a lifetime of 8–10 years (Kirschke (Aydin et al., 2011; Chen and Prinn, 2006; Simpson et al., et al., 2013), is the second most abundant anthro- 2012; Wang et al., 2004), a compensation between increas- pogenic greenhouse gas, with a radiative forcing (RF) of ing anthropogenic emissions and decreasing wetland emis- 0.97 ± 0.23 W m−2 (including indirect radiative forcing as- sions (Bousquet et al., 2006), and/or significant (Rigby et al., sociated with the production of tropospheric ozone and 2008) to small (Montzka et al., 2011) changes in OH concen- stratospheric water vapour; Stocker et al., 2013) after CO2 trations. However, Pison et al. (2013) emphasized the need (RF in 2011: 1.68 ± 0.35 W m−2, Stocker et al., 2013). Ap- for a comprehensive and precisely quantified methane bud- proximately one-fifth of the increase in radiative forcing by get for its proper closure and the development of realistic human-linked greenhouse gases since 1750 is due to methane future climate scenarios. (Nisbet
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