Warrington Multi-Modal Transport Model Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) Final Warrington Borough Council & Partners April 2010
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Warrington Multi-Modal Transport Model Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) Final Warrington Borough Council & Partners April 2010 QM Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks DRAFT – Layout DRAFT – Client Final Final Review Comment Date 20/05/09 18/09/09 10/12/09 20/04/10 Prepared by Joanna Isaac/ Joanna Isaac Joanna Isaac Joanna Isaac Christine Palmer Signature Checked by Paul Speirs Christine Palmer Christine Palmer Christine Palmer Signature Authorised by Mike Batheram Paul Speirs Paul Speirs Paul Speirs Signature Project number 11560060 11560060 11560060 11560060 File reference G:\Development G:\Development G:\Development G:\Development Modelling Modelling Modelling Modelling Projects\Warringt Projects\Warringt Projects\Warringt Projects\Warringt on MMTM on MMTM on MMTM on MMTM WSP Development and Transportation WSP House 70 Chancery Lane London WC2A 1AF Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 5000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7314 5111 http://www.wspgroup.com Model QM Version VISUM Version 10.03.20 Demand Model Tier 1 Demand Model_v3_Final_C3.ver – 29/03/10 Demand Model AM Assignment.ver – 19/03/10 Demand Model IP Assignment.ver – 19/03/10 Filename and Date Demand Model PM Assignment.ver – 19/03/10 Demand Model Tier 2 T2 Demand Model_v2.ver – 14/04/10 AM BY v37 T2_demand Model_AM Assignment_2.ver– 24/03/10 IP BY v37 T2_demand Model_IP Assignment_2.ver– 24/03/10 PM BY v37 T2_demand Model_PM Assignment_2.ver-24/03/10 AM Observed Model AM BY v48_Val_Block Final.ver – 10/12/09 IP Observed Model IP BY v48_v5_Val_Block Final.ver – 10/12/09 PM Observed Model PM BY v48_v5_Val_Block Final_2010_v11.ver– 12/01/10 Equilibrium Lohse, Assignment Node Impedance & Blocking Back During Assignment Number of Nodes, 2,058, 378, 5,378 Zones and Link Transport Modes Car and LGV, HGV , Rail, Bus, Slow (walk and cycle) Contents EXECUTIVE SUMM RY 1 Background 1 Model Platform 3 Inception Report 3 Model Overview 3 Surveys 4 Network Extent 4 Highway Matrix Development 4 Public Transport Matrix Development 5 Highway Observed Model Calibration & Validation 5 Public Transport Observed Model Calibration & Validation 6 Demand Model Development 7 Demand Model Highway Calibration & Validation 7 Demand Model Realism Tests 8 Summary 8 Glossary of Terms 9 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background 11 1.2 Model Requirements 11 1.3 Report Purpose 12 2 Model Overview 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Modelling Approach 13 2.3 Model Form and Structure 14 2.4 Observed Assignment Model 19 2.5 Synthetic Demand Model 25 2.6 Generalised Cost Parameters in Assignment 26 2.7 Blocking Back 26 3 Model E(tent and Netw ork 27 3.1 Model Extent 27 3.2 Highway Network 29 3.3 Junctions 31 3.4 Bus Network 31 3.5 Rail Network 33 3.6 Zoning System 34 , Observed .ighw a0 Matri( 1evelopm ent 33 4.1 Introduction 39 4.2 Highway Survey Data 39 4.3 Model Zones 39 4.4 Data Cleaning 39 4.5 RSI Matrix 41 4.6 Synthetic Matrix 48 5 5ublic Transport Matri( 1evelopm ent 51 5.1 Introduction 51 5.2 Bus Survey Data 51 5.3 Model Zones 51 5.4 Bus Expansion Factors 51 5.5 Survey Records Outside the Peak Period 51 5.6 Route Sections 52 5.7 Final Bus Matrices Summary 53 5.8 Rail Survey Data 54 5.9 Model Zones 54 5.10 Rail Expansion Factors 54 5.11 Access Mode to Station 54 5.12 Transport Systems to Support Rail Mode 55 5.13 Warrington and Birchwood Stations 55 5.14 Final Rail Matrices Summary 55 6 1em and Model 1evelopm ent 57 6.1 Introduction 57 6.2 Trip Generation 58 6.3 Mode Choice 64 6.4 Trip Distribution 74 6.5 Assignment 76 6.6 Time Slice 76 6.7 Tier 2 Demand Model 76 7 ssignm ent Calibration and Validation 5rocedures 77 7.1 Highway Calibration Procedure 77 7.2 Highway Validation Procedure 77 7.3 Highway Range Checking 77 7.4 Highway Route Choice 77 7.5 Highway Route Journey Time Validation 78 7.6 Highway GEH Statistic 79 7.7 Highway Screenline Flows 80 7.8 Public Transport Calibration Procedure 82 7.9 Public Transport Validation Procedure 82 7.10 Public Transport Validation Criteria 83 7.11 Demand Model Validation Procedures 83 7.12 Further Modelling Checks 83 7.13 Demand Model Validation Expectations 83 8 1em and Model Validation Results - Tier 1 85 8.1 Introduction 85 8.2 Trip Generation 85 8.3 Mode Choice Tier 1 88 8.4 Trip Distribution 98 8.5 Motorway Turning Movements 110 8.6 Vehicle Occupancies 113 8.7 Time Slice 114 8.8 Assignment 114 8.9 Demand / Supply Convergence 115 WebTAG Compliance 115 8.10 Warrington Model Demand/ Supply Convergence 115 8.11 Summary 116 3 1em and Model Validation Tier 2 117 9.1 Introduction 117 9.2 Trip Generation 118 9.3 Mode Choice 119 9.4 Trip Distribution 122 9.5 Time Slice 130 9.6 Assignment 130 10 Realism Testing 131 10.1 Realism Tests 131 10.2 20% Increase in Fuel Cost 133 10.3 10% Increase in Journey Time 135 10.4 10% Increase Public Transport Fare 137 10.5 Summary 138 11 Observed Model .ighw a0 Calibration and Validation Results 133 11.1 Introduction 139 11.2 Route Checking 141 11.3 Convergence 142 11.4 Sector to Sector Movements 143 11.5 Trip Length Distribution 144 11.6 Highway Traffic Flows 148 11.7 Screenline and Cordon Results 155 11.8 Motorway traffic flows 156 11.9 Journey Routes Times 162 12 5ublic Transport Model Calibration and Validation Results 171 12.1 Introduction 171 12.2 Bus Model Assignment 171 12.3 WebTAG Criteria 172 12.4 Validation of Trip Matrix 172 12.5 Network and Service Validation 172 12.6 Assignment Validation 175 13 Conclusions 181 13.1 Model Development 181 13.2 Model Validation / Calibration 181 13.3 Model Approval & Fit For Purpose 182 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 – Warrington Demand Model Structure..........................................................16 Figure 2.2 – Warrington Observed Model Structure........................................................17 Figure 2.3 – VBA/ VISUM Interaction..............................................................................18 Figure 2.4 – Zone System based upon 2001 COAs........................................................19 Figure 2.5 – Observed Base Year Highway Model Development Flow Chart.................20 Figure 2.6 – Observed Base Year Public Transport Model Development Flow Chart ....21 Figure 2.7 - Location of Mersey Gateway, Saturn and St Helens’ RSI sites ...................22 Figure 2.8 - Location of 2008 RSI Surveyed Sites ..........................................................23 Figure 2.9 – Link and Turning Count Locations in Warrington ........................................24 Figure 2.10 – Demand Model Structure ..........................................................................25 Figure 3.1 – Warrington VISUM Detailed Network Coverage .........................................27 Figure 3.2 – VISUM strategic network.............................................................................28 Figure 3.3 – Location of Signalised Junctions in Warrington ..........................................31 Figure 3.4 – Warrington Bus Routes ...............................................................................33 Figure 3.5 – Zone and Sector Plan UK ...........................................................................35 Figure 3.6 – Zone and Sector Plan North West Region ..................................................36 Figure 3.7 – Zone and Sector Plan Warrington...............................................................37 Figure 4.1 – Location of RSI Sites...................................................................................40 Figure 4.2 – Highway Observed Matrix Development.....................................................49 Figure 6.1 – Demand Model Processes ..........................................................................57 Figure 6.2 – Nested Choice Model Structure ..................................................................58 Figure 6.3 – Z Value Sectors...........................................................................................66 Figure 6.4 – VISUM Car Park Zones...............................................................................71 Figure 6.5 – Warrington Town Centre Car Parks ............................................................72 Figure 7.1 – Strategic Journey Time Routes...................................................................79 Figure 7.2 – Highway Calibration Screenlines & Cordons ..............................................81 Figure 7.3 – Highway Validation Screenlines & Cordons................................................82 Figure 8.1 - Adjusted 2001 Census TTW Person Trip Productions (All Modes) .............87 Figure 8.2 – Demand Model HBW Person Trip Productions (All Modes)........................87 Figure 8.3 – Main External Zones ...................................................................................89 Figure 8.4 – Main Internal Zones ....................................................................................90 Figure 8.5 – Adjusted TTW 24 Hour Car Person Trip Productions .................................92 Figure 8.6 – Demand Model HBW 24 Hour Car Person Trip Productions ......................92 Figure 8.7 – TTW and HBW Car Productions Warrington Area ......................................93 Figure 8.8 – TTW and HBW Car Productions Main Study Area......................................93 Figure 8.9 – Adjusted TTW 24 Hour PT Person Trip Productions ..................................94 Figure 8.10 – Demand Model HBW 24 Hour PT Person Trip Productions .....................94 Figure 8.11 – TTW and HBW PT Productions Warrington Area .....................................95 Figure 8.12 – Adjusted TTW 24 Hour Slow Mode Person Trip Productions