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Goal Generating Tactics in NCAA Men's Water Polo

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Goal Generating Tactics in NCAA Men's Water Polo University of the Pacific Scholarly Commons University of the Pacific Theses and Dissertations Graduate School 2019 Strong Side, Weak Side: Goal Generating Tactics in NCAA Men's Water Polo Joey Gullikson University of the Pacific, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.pacific.edu/uop_etds Part of the Sports Sciences Commons, and the Sports Studies Commons Recommended Citation Gullikson, Joey. (2019). Strong Side, Weak Side: Goal Generating Tactics in NCAA Men's Water Polo. University of the Pacific, Thesis. https://scholarlycommons.pacific.edu/uop_etds/3618 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of the Pacific Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 1 STRONG SIDE, WEAK SIDE: GOAL GENERATING TACTICS IN NCAA MEN’S WATER POLO By Joey Gullikson A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS College of the Pacific Health, Exercise, and Sport Sciences University of the Pacific Stockton, California 2019 2 STRONG SIDE, WEAK SIDE: GOAL GENERATING TACTICS IN NCAA MEN’S WATER POLO by Joey Gullikson APPROVED BY: Thesis Advisor: Lara Killick, Ph.D. Committee Member: Lewis R. Gale, Ph.D. Committee Member: John Mayberry, Ph.D. Department Chair: Lara Killick, Ph.D. Dean of Graduate School: Thomas Naehr, Ph.D. 3 STRONG SIDE, WEAK SIDE: GOAL GENERATING TACTICS IN NCAA MEN’S WATER POLO Copyright 2019 By Joey Gullikson 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to James Graham, Lara Killick, John Mayberry, and Lewis Gale, who provided me with the opportunity to do this project on goal generating tactics in NCAA men’s water polo. None of this would be possible without your dedication and help. James, you opened the door to my coaching career, cultivated my ingenuity, and provided me with the resources necessary to complete this project. I owe my professional success to your guidance and leadership. Thank you. Killick, you instilled in me a love for coaching and teaching at the undergraduate level that has stayed with me, and will continue to stay with me. You were integral to my growth and development as a coach and teacher. More importantly, you taught me to not only believe in myself—but to believe I can make a difference. Your continued mentorship and countless hours spent helping craft my thesis will never be forgotten. I am extremely grateful for the time you devote to not only me, but all your students. I promise to pay it forward to future students. Thank you. Mayberry, I would be lost mathematically with you. I am constantly amazed by what you are capable of analytically. Every interaction I have had with you, whether it be a meeting or informal conversation, has been educational and thought provoking. I appreciate all you do for me and the University of the Pacific’s water polo programs, and I look forward to continuing to work with you on many more projects in the future. Thank you. 5 Lewis, I admire your genuineness, desire to be a lifelong learner, and willingness to always help. I appreciate all you have done to help me develop not only as a student and coach, but also for mentoring me on how to conduct myself to ensure that I am always the very best version of myself. Your support of the University of the Pacific’s water polo programs and the lengths you go to help us continue to be great is indispensable. Thank you for always being flexible, making yourself available, and being a great friend. Thank you. You are what it means to be a Pacific Tiger. 6 Strong Side, Weak Side: Goal Generating Tactics in NCAA Men’s Water Polo Abstract by Joey Gullikson University of the Pacific 2019 In the game of water polo, it is generally accepted that the shooting position of the offensive player and the tactic employed are both important in generating goals. Despite their importance, little is known about the relationship between shooting position and offensive tactics and their impact on the probability of goal scoring. In this research, a sequence of hierarchical mixed logistic regression models is applied to a unique data set from 2016 and 2017 NCAA men’s water polo seasons to analyze the relationship between goal generating tactics and different shooting positions. The primary result reveals that the closer a player is the “midline” of the pool and the closer a player is to the goal, the higher the percentage of scoring by offensive tactic. Furthermore, statistically significant relationships reveal (i) direct shots are better than perimeter shots, (ii) left- handed shooters are more efficient at scoring goals that right-handed shooters, and (iii) counterattack opportunities are better than power plays (player advantage). Understanding the best goal-scoring positions in the pool for each offensive tactic will assist coaches and players in devising more successful offensive and defensive strategies. 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ..........................................................................................................................9 LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................10 CHAPTER 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................11 Using Data Analytics to Enhance Player Performance .........................................14 Purpose of the Study .............................................................................................16 Research Question ................................................................................................16 Contribution to Water Polo ...................................................................................16 2. Review of Literature .........................................................................................................17 Typology of Data Analytics ..................................................................................17 Data Analytics in Sport .........................................................................................19 Data Analytics in Water Polo ...............................................................................20 Limitations of Data Analytics ...............................................................................21 3. Methodology .....................................................................................................................24 Research Design ....................................................................................................24 Research Population, Sample, and Recruitment ...................................................24 Data Collection .....................................................................................................26 Data Quality Control .............................................................................................27 Ethics .....................................................................................................................28 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................28 4. Results ...............................................................................................................................30 8 Descriptive Analysis: Trend Identification ...........................................................30 Predictive Analysis: Outcome Prediction .............................................................35 Prescriptive Analysis: Developing Tactical Plans ................................................38 5. Discussion .........................................................................................................................47 Application of Descriptive Analytics: Trend Identification .................................47 Application of Predictive Analytics: Outcome Prediction ....................................48 Application of Prescriptive Analytics: Developing Tactical Plans .......................49 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................51 Future of the Study ................................................................................................52 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................54 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................................................60 9 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Olympic Medal Count Breakdown ......................................................................................... 12 2. Sample Demographics ................................................................................................ 25 3. Shots Summary ..................................................................................................................... 30 4. Goal Generating Tactics & Scoring Percentages ............................................................. 33 5. Scoring Probability by Shot Position and Hand ............................................................... 36 6. Power Play vs Counter Attack ............................................................................................ 39 7.
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