31 August 2006 Global Emerging Markets Turkey +PSFEP6IWIEVGL Turkey Informer Equity market drivers Turkish equities have bounced back strongly from their May lows, but nevertheless still face some tough structural headwinds. Most crucially, we think the global environment still creates challenges for current account-deficit countries, although there are both upside and downside risks here. Domestically, tight monetary and fiscal policies create continued downside risk to growth and earnings estimates. There is a liquidity risk as well, in that the market remains over-owned. The change in the macro environment also threatens to raise the political temperature going into next year’s elections and will probably make investors focus more on political risk than might otherwise be the case. That said, valuation provides some comfort. On a PE basis, Turkey enjoys discounts to EMEA of 7% for 2006e and 12% for 2007e. Moreover, we see about 19% upside to fair Bulent Yurdagul* Analyst value for the market, both for banks and non-banks. Of course, if growth is weaker than HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. we expect, earnings erosion would undermine the room for manoeuvre on valuations. But (Turkey) equally, further Turkish lira (TRL) appreciation could enhance the interest rate and +90 212 366 16 04
[email protected] growth outlook – both of which would, in turn, boost valuations. Cenk Orcan* In view of this outlook, we keep the Turkish market on a Neutral weighting. Analyst HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. Top stock picks (Turkey) +90 212 366 16 05 Banks – our top picks remain Garanti and TEB on prospects of strong growth under the
[email protected] global expertise of new JV partners, GE and BNP, respectively.