Tocantins, Brazil

Jurisdictional indicators brief

State area: 277,721 km² (3.26% of Brazil) Original forest area: 39,853 km² Current forest area (2019): 9,964 km² (3.6% of Tocantins) Yearly deforestation (2019) 23 km² Yearly deforestation rate (2019) 0.23% Interannual deforestation change -8% (2018-2019) Accumulated deforestation (2001-2019): 1,800 km² Protected conservation areas: 38,548 km² (13.9% of Tocantins) Carbon stocks (2015): 62 millions tons (above ground biomass) Representative crops (2018): Sugarcane (3,106,492 tons); Soybean (2,667,936 tons); Rice (659,809 tons) Value of agricultural production (2016): $1,152,935,462 USD More on jurisdictional sustainability State of jurisdictional sustainability

Forest and people In 2019, the estimated area of tropical forest in the state of Tocantins was 9,964 km2, equivalent to 3.6% of the state’s total area, and to 0.3% of the tropical forest remaining in the nine states of the Brazilian legal Amazon. The total accumulated forest lost during the period 2001-2019 was 1,800 km2, equivalent to 16.1% of the forest area remaining in 2001. Tocantins concentrated about 0.2% of the carbon reserves stored in the biomass of the Brazilian tropical forest (about 62 mt C as of 2019).

a b 100% 3.6% of the state is covered with forest DRAFT80%

60%

0.3% of Brazilian tropical forest area 40%

20%

0.2% of Brazilian tropical forest carbon stock 3.6% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2001 2019 No forest (%) Deforestation (%) Forest (%) Figure 1: a) forest share and b) transition of forest to deforestation over the last years

There were 1.6 million people living in Tocantins as of 2020, distributed in 19 municipalities, with 0.3 million people living in the capital city of Palmas. The state has formally designated conservation areas and indigenous territories, which respectively represent 14% and 9% of the state. There were an estimated 12,842 indigenous people living in the state in 2010 (see Figure 2).

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-1 Report created July 15, 2020 Figure 2: Map of most populated places (> 40,000 people) and indigenous and protected areas in Tocantins Deforestation The state of Tocantins has reduced its yearly deforestation area consistently over the last twenty years, a trend that corresponds as well with its limited remaining tropical Amazon forest. The analysis of deforestation in Cerrado (2018), which represents 98% of the state area (see Figure 3).After the peaks of 2008 where 107 km2 of forest loss were recorded, deforestation has been under 100 km2. In 2019 the smallest figure of yearly deforestation was recorded in the state with23km2, representing an interanual reduction of -8%. Tocantins concentrated less than 0.23% of the total deforestation in the legal Amazon in 2019. The deforestation rate in the state in 2019 (0.23%) was about the below the average of the nine Brazilian Amazon states (0.43%). The state’s current deforestation is 91% below the reference baseline 1996-2005, and 86% below the reference baseline 1996-2015. DRAFT 52% of the deforestation is located in the five most affected municipalities in the state (see Figure 4). The municipality of Piraquê consistently registered the largest loss of tropical forest over the last years, reaching a maximum of 15 km2 lost in 2002. In 2019 the deforestation in Piraquê was 3 km2.

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-2 Report created July 15, 2020 3000 2,742

2,468

2000

1,444 1,432 value

1000

216 156 63 40 57 23 0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1996 2019

Cerrado deforestation Amazon deforestation Average 3−year deforestation Deforestation baseline Figure 3: Yearly deforestation (푘푚2) and deforestation baseline

a b 2020 3

2015

2010 Year

2005 DRAFT 28 2000

Angico Piraquê Luzinópolis Praia Norte Araguaína Araguatins AguiarnópolisPedro Afonso

Formoso do Araguaia Marianópolis do Tocantins Km2 Km2 0 10 20 0 1 2 3 Figure 4: a) Yearly deforestation by municipalities in 2019 b) Yearly deforestation in top 10 most affected municipalities (푘푚2)

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-3 Report created July 15, 2020 Table 1: Forest and deforestation indicators in the state of Tocantins Year Forest (km2) Deforestation Deforestation rate (%) Annual variation (%) 2001 11,872 189 1.59 -22.5 2002 11,592 212 1.83 12.2 2003 11,353 156 1.37 -26.4 2004 11,209 158 1.41 1.3 2005 11,057 271 2.45 71.5 2006 10,656 124 1.16 -54.2 2007 10,623 63 0.59 -49.2 2008 10,558 107 1.01 69.8 2009 10,453 61 0.58 -43 2010 10,393 49 0.47 -19.7 2011 10,338 40 0.39 -18.4 2012 10,303 52 0.51 30 2013 10,255 74 0.72 42.3 2014 10,177 50 0.49 -32.4 2015 10,131 57 0.56 14 2016 10,076 58 DRAFT0.58 1.8 2017 10,022 31 0.31 -46.5 2018 9,988 25 0.25 -19.4 2019 9,964 23 0.23 -8

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-4 Report created July 15, 2020 DRAFT

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-5 Report created July 15, 2020 Burned area According to the NASA-USGS analysis of MODIS satellite observations, the average yearly burned area in Tocantins was 31,943 km2 for the period 2010-2020. This figure includes burned areas due to firesin forest, savannahs and opened agricultural areas. The burned area in 2019 was 32,147 km2 and the worst year in the last decade was 2010 with 67,386 km2 burned. In most years, the months of September and August represented the peak of the fire season (see Figure 5).

12 128 24 188 11 131 245 33 83 98 140

11 263 50 50 144 300 403 737 105 91 246

10 3,257 1,493 9,197 3,754 9,182 12,034 2,514 7,890 1,236 2,483

9 30,217 14,893 23,751 8,715 10,223 12,016 10,231 20,295 5,073 15,159

8 20,586 4,014 13,253 4,878 9,609 5,224 11,240 6,825 3,234 8,062

7 7,987 1,570 3,118 1,965 2,140 1,617 5,412 3,085 2,039 3,033

Month 6 3,369 834 969 748 1,259 1,048 1,710 834 979 1,553

5 858 556 394 310 479 726 904 727 588 696

4 464 150 138 102 208 25 342 251 83 136

3 103 163 46 92 32 28 172 101 197 92 212

2 115 116 168 12 21 405 174 279 294 425

1 39 1 16 12 31 106 10 16 3 253 222

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year 67,386 DRAFT 60,000

2 40,000

m 32,147 K 20,000 13,901 0

12 14 16 18 2010 2019 year Figure 5: Monthly burned area since 2010 (km2). Source: EII analysis of MODIS-MCD64

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-6 Report created July 15, 2020 Emissions from deforestation The accumulated emissions from deforestation in the state of Tocantins between 2000 and 2019 amount to 59 million tons of CO2eq, which was equivalent to 0.5% of the total emissions from deforestation in the legal Amazon during this period. Considering the observed yearly deforestation, the mean carbon density of the state’s forest and the business as usual deforestation baseline, the accumulated gross avoided emissions from deforestation during the period from 2006 to 2019 was 82 million tons of CO2eq. This results from summing avoided emissions during the period from 2006 to 2019 in which the deforestation was lower than the business as usual deforestation baseline.

a b 8 7.81

6.04 6

6 4.17 4

4.38

Emissions CO2eq (Millions tons) 2 Avoided emissions CO2 (Millions tons) Avoided

1.03 0.72 0.33 0 0

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 08 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2019 2006 2019

Figure 6: Emissions from deforestation (left) and avoided emissions (right) (CO2eq Millions tons) DRAFT

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-7 Report created July 15, 2020 Livestock

Table 2: Livestock indicators in Tocantins

Cattle Pig Poultry Fish Year 2018 2018 2018 2015 Herd size: 8,352,513 318,975 7,541,377 Slaughtered heads: 1,066,984 NA NA Meat production 259,158 NA NA (tons): Value (thousands): R$76,711 BRL

7.5

5.0 8.14 8.35 7.66 7.39

Heads (Millions) 2.5

0.0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018 Yearly cattle herd size in the state of Tocantins (2000−2018) 273.4 259.2 Meat production (thousand tons)

1.0 191.4 DRAFT 200 135.9 1.2 0.5 1.07 0.9 100

0.56 Slaughtered head (millions)

0.0 0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2000 2018 Yearly cattle meat output in terms of slaughtered heads and meat production (thousand tons) in the state of Tocantins (2000−2018) Meat production (thousand tons) Slaughtered head (millions)

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-8 Report created July 15, 2020 Agriculture

Sugarcane 1,000 3.11 2.81 3 750

2 500

1 250

0.22 0.16 0.20 4 3 9 36 39 0 0

Soybean 1,000

918 Crop production (Millions tons) 3 2.67 750 718 2.09 2 500 355 316 0.91 1 250 0.73 0.19 82 0 0 Harvested area (Thousand hectares) Rice 1,000 3

750

2 500 DRAFT 1 250 198 0.66 0.51 0.36136 0.46 0.36 128 109 112

0 0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2000 2018

Crop production (Millions tons) Harvested area (Thousand hectares) Figure 7: Harvested area and production of the three crops most produced in Tocantins

http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-9 Report created July 15, 2020 Aquaculture The plot shows the aquaculture production in the state of Tocantins over the last 6 years and the value of this production. The data includes production of fish such as Tambaqui, Skunk catfish, Tiger shovelnose catfish or firewood catfish and includes only activities related with fish farming under controlled conditions. Does not include fishing activities.1

12,000 108 Value (million $R) in local prices 90 9,000

6,000 60 11,367 41

Production (Tons) 7,259 3,000 30

0 0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production (Tons) Value in local prices (million $R) Figure 8: Yearly aquaculture production (tons) and value of production (Reales) in Tocantins a b 2018 189 114 140 765 191 237 1,280 712 123 5,623

65 100 126 60 210 1,404 788 691 5,791

2016 48 95 105 216 222 779 1,3434,742 Year DRAFT 54 99 20 230 226 468 1,2774,864

2014 53 99 53 235 222 462 1,2014,849

42 55 23 165 210 425 230 5,157

Guaraí Palmas Almas Itaguatins Dianópolis Porto Nacional

Chapada da NatividadeSítio Novo do Tocantins São MiguelMaurilândia do Tocantins do Tocantins Tons Tons 10002000300040005000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Figure 9: a) Yearly aquaculture production (tons) in municipalities of Tocantins in 2018. b) Yearly aquaculture production by municipalities (Tons)

1The value of production don’t include the class Shellfish seeds, Shrimp, Shrimp larvae and post-larvae, Oysters, scallops and mussels, Other products (frog, alligator, crab, lobster, etc.) and Alevinos. http://earthinnovation.org BR-TO-10 Report created July 15, 2020