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Can Maidan Happen in Belarus? the Ukrainian

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Can Maidan Happen in Belarus? the Ukrainian Issue 2 (44), 2014 CAN MAIDAN HAPPEN IN BELARUS? Recent events in Ukraine have been a cause of Ukraine. By providing his assessment of Maidan concern to both politicians and the public. During he reviews Lukashenka’s statements on the issues the Maidan revolution and with the start of Rus- in Ukraine. Finally, Melyantsou acknowledges sian aggression, many analysts questioned whether that events in Ukraine could have been a signal something similar could happen in Belarus. This for the Belarusian government to strengthen its Dzianis Melyantsou is Senior issue of Bell attempts to answer this question. own influence in the country to avoid a similar Analyst at the Belarusian Institute scenario here. for Strategic Studies, Minsk. A Lukashenka’s response showed that he will make graduate of History Department every effort to ensure that neither of these things In the second article Andrei Yeliseyeu reviews the at the Mahilou State University, happen here under his rule. However, internal response of the Belarusian public to the Maidan he then studied Political Science economic problems and the fact that Belarus is de- revolution. Comparing various indicators he re- and International Relations at pendent on Russia for solutions to these problems veals that Ukrainians took to the streets for a va- the Institute for International hinder his actions. Even though it is too early to riety of objective reasons. The absence of such rea- Relations and Political Sciences expect Maidan in Belarus, the increasing Russian sons is the main obstacle why such events would in Vilnius (Lithuania), where he influence, which may manifest at any time in more not happen in Minsk. Finally, Yeliseyeu concludes defended his M.A. thesis in 2006. radical steps, seems more and more real. that the attitude of Belarusian society to the events in Ukraine was passive. Andrei Yeliseyeu is an analyst In the first article Dziani Melyantsou analyses how at the Belarusian Institute for the Belarusian government responded to events in Vytautas Keršanskas, Editor Strategic Studies and is awarded with MA in Political Science from the European Humanities University (Vilnius, Lithuania) and LLM in International and THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AS SEEN BY THE BELARUSIAN European Law from the Riga Graduate School of Law (Riga, Latvia). LEADERSHIP Dzianis Melyantsou, BISS What happened in Ukraine? immaturity of post-Soviet political elites, their incapability of statesmanlike thinking Many opinions and interpretations are available and compromises. Rather than adhering to about the Ukrainian events. The only thing agreements with the authorities and choosing most analysts and observers agree on is that a peaceful transition, the Ukrainian opposition these events cannot by any means be called – both the old one and the new one, generated CONTENTS another “coloured revolution”. In fact, it was not by Maidan – opted for an anti-constitutional 1 a revolution. Classical revolutions, according to scenario, resulting in a disaster, such as riots in CAN MAIDAN HAPPEN IN the standard created by the French Revolution, the country’s south east and the alienation of BELARUS? result in demolition of the old social construction Crimea. and introduction of a new political and public 1 system. But this is not the case in Ukraine; the After a series of mistakes from the very beginning, THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AS system has survived. What has changed is the the new government is facing massive problems SEEN BY THE BELARUSIAN ruling clique, but only partially. The reasons and has little time to focus on reforms. that forced Ukrainians to Maidan – pro-EU LEADERSHIP aspirations, massive corruption and unjust First, the radical wing was allowed to become 4 oligarch power system – have not been resolved too strong; having got possession of weapons, PROTEST ACTIVITY IN because of Yanukovych’s dethronement. It leaves they started to terrorise the population and re- UKRAINE AND BELARUS AND the revolutionary scenario possible. divide property. BELARUSIAN PUBLIC AttITUDE Developments in Ukraine during the last half- Second, the new government failed to suppress TOWARDS MAIDAN year have served as a stark illustration of the or disown radical statements about the 1 Issue 2 (44), 2014 export of revolution to eastern and southern is such a lovely country with lovely people. regions and the changing status of the Russian But the so-called open market has brought this A reason for Belarusian language. This failure resulted in anti-Maidan mess, with clans dividing the country. This is authority’s interest in counteractions that served as fertile ground for what you get as a result. It is a bad sign when you Maidan is both the close Russian propaganda and actions to destabilise see the President’s children starting their own neighbourhood with the situation. businesses. It is a bad sign when you see wives Ukraine and the fact that and girlfriends with crowns on”2. Ukraine and its choice is a Third, rather than explaining their plans and key factor for further sce- addressing the fears of East Ukraine and Russia’s In his interview to Savik Shuster, a Ukrainian TV- narios of Eurasian integra- leadership, the new authorities stepped up their host, on 26 March 20143, Lukashenka even called populist rhetoric on NATO membership and tion. Maidan a manifestation of people’s legitimate revision of Kharkiv agreements on the status of dismay over corruption and lawlessness. This Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. This naturally concerned Belarus has refrained from means that, in fact, he expressed his post factum Moscow who felt its interests were in danger. engagement in an infor- solidarity with the protests, but also stressed stability and social justice in Belarus and mational and economic Fourth, refusal to resist the blockage of Crimea war against Ukraine. by Russian-controlled units demonstrated the explained that such shocks are impossible in powerlessness of Ukraine’s army and, for many Belarus, because there are no causes for them. observers, legitimised the passing of control of the peninsula from Kiev to Moscow: Ukrainians Mr Lukashenka was very negative about did not defend their land and did not proclaim the escape of Yanukovych and his inability a military emergency. A lack of resistance must to oppose the coup d’état. He articulated it have been an argument for a decision about full clearly both after the change of the regime and annexation of Crimea, since it hardly could have especially in his interview to Shuster, where been an initial plan. he said: “The President has to stand with his people, no matter how hard it is, no matter Glance from Minsk what happens to you, even if you might be shot dead”4. But this has not prevented Lukashenka Belarusian authorities observed developments from quick and unambiguous recognition of very closely from the very beginning of the the new government in Kiev, with a reference to confrontation in Kiev. A reason for their interest the former President’s self-elimination and the is both the close neighbourhood with Ukraine effective control of the new government over the and the fact that Ukraine and its choice is a country. key factor for further scenarios of Eurasian integration. Manoeuvring virtuoso Despite their strong factual interest, the Many observers, especially from Ukraine, were Belarusian leadership consistently refrained very positive about the Belarusian President’s from publicly focusing on Ukrainian self-restraint and his unwillingness to support developments. Lukashenka’s statements were Russia on Crimea, until the UN vote on scarce, and the state media covered Euromaidan Ukraine. Belarusian TV looked much more as marginal news, without any judgment. Still, in his rare comments, Lukashenka was balanced and professional than their Russian negative about Maidan, as a phenomenon of colleagues on events in Kiev and Crimea; the instability and disturbance, which undermines Belarusian leadership stressed the importance the fundamentals of statehood. The state of Ukraine’s integrity and avoided comments propaganda used Maidan as a background to on Russia’s blockade of Crimea for as long emphasise social stability and justice in Belarus. as possible. Minsk also recognised the new For example, Lukashenka stated on 21 January: Ukrainian authorities. “Events in Ukraine are a nightmare, a disaster. No revolutions, please. Do we need a massacre However, the airdrome in Babrujsk, Belarus, saw such as they have in Ukraine? Come on, we are new Russian jet fighters arriving. Lukashenka civilized people”1. stated on 23 March that “de facto, Crimea is a part of the Russian Federation today; one can The Belarusian President also commented on the causes of the Ukrainian disturbances: top-level corruption and instigation of foreign forces, 2 http://euroradio.fm/ru/lukashenko-kak-tolko-u-zhen-i- with Poland being the usual suspect. “Ukraine lyubovnic-poyavlyayutsya-korony-zhdi-bedy 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzmo0uKGtQs 4 http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/intervjju 1http://euroradio.fm/ru/lukashenko-o-kievskom-maydane- prezidenta-respubliki-belarus-aglukashenko-programme- esli-vozmut-vlast-eto-nadolgo shuster-live-8387/ 2 Issue 2 (44), 2014 accept it or reject it, but nothing changes”5. In Lessons learnt by the Belarusian leadership the UN General Assembly, Belarus was among There are no reasons in the few states supporting Russia and voting for Maidan has hardly scared Lukashenka as much Belarus yet for social pro- international legitimisation of Russia’s actions in as some Belarusian opposition media are tests, and the govern- Crimea. Many stated then that Lukashenka has claiming. There are no reasons in Belarus yet ment is not so weak as to not resisted the pressure by Russia; Ukraine’s for social protests, and the government is not allow massive disorders only choice was to recall its ambassador. Days so weak as to allow massive disorders on the on the model of Kiev to after this, in an extensive interview for Ukrainian model of Kiev to break out.
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