Moonshine Policy of Low-Level Federation and the Potential Danger of North Korea-Dominated Korean Unification

Moonshine Policy of Low-level Federation and the Potential Danger of North Korea-dominated Korean Unification

March 10, 2018

Tara O

(Paper based on the presentation at the ICAS Winter Symposium at the Woodrow Wilson Center on February 14, 2018)

Key words: Low-level Federation, Federation, Confederation, unification, South Korea, North Korea, Identity, Olympics, History, History Textbook, Constitution, Constitutional Reform, Decentralization, Subversion, Moon Jae-in

Introduction

While North Korea’s nuclear weapons development program consistently receives global attention, little is noticed about the internal dynamics of South Korea, except for the recent Olympics. Efforts have been underway that impact South Korea’s national identity of liberal democracy and market economy. While some see the South Korea-North Korea joint team and the flying of the unification flag at the PyeongChang Olympics Opening Ceremony as “peace,” others see it as South Korea subsuming itself under North Korea. The attempts to change the Republic of Korea’s foundation from 1948 to 1919 and misleading content in children’s history textbooks are controversial as they change the narrative that weakens the political and economic system that propelled South Korea into one of the wealthiest and free societies in the world. Most importantly, the ongoing efforts to change the constitution to put South Korea on the path to socialism and decentralization, especially as it relates to “low-level federation” with North Korea, are deeply disturbing. This change, if it occurs, could result in the end of the South-Korea-U.S. alliance and a North Korea-dominated unified Korea.

PyeongChang Winter Olympics

In August 2011, the International Olympics Committee announced that the 2018 Winter Olympics would be held at PyeongChang in Gangwon Province of the Republic of Korea (ROK).1 South Koreans, especially the PyeongChang residents, were ecstatic, proud,2 and worked hard to be a wonderful hosts for an international event of this magnitude. Athletes trained in

1 The last time the Republic of Korea held the Olympics was 1988 (Games of the XXIV Olympiad) in the City of Seoul. It showcased the Korean economic miracle. 2 Donald Kirk, “South Korea goes wild as PyeongChang wins bid to host 2018 Winter Olympics,” The Christian Science Monitor, July 6, 2011, https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0706/South-Korea-goes-wild- as-Pyeongchang-wins-bid-to-host-2018-Winter-Olympics-VIDEO 1 skating, ice hockey, curling, and other winter sports. Private sector companies, like Hyundai, Korean Air, and SK Telecom poured in around $800 million to $1 billion to sponsor the athletes, including ₩ 400 billion (~$370 million) during the Park Geun-hye administration and at least ₩ 400 billion more during the Moon Jae-in administration.3 For example, Lotte, CJ Jeil Jaedang, & Shinhan sponsored skiing, ski jumping, snowboarding, and alpine skiing, while Halla, LG Electronics and KB Financial sponsored ice hockey.4 Over $10 billion were spent to get ready for the PyeongChang Olympics.5

On his January 1st address, Kim Jong-un hinted at participating in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, all the while referring to South Korea as “vassal forces” implementing sanctions.6 South Korean president Moon Jae-in and his administration responded with alacrity. They have been reaching out to North Korea for some time, were spurned each time, until the January address. As such, they quickly moved to hold meetings, open a hotline, and invited North Korean delegations to South Korea. The visit by Hyon Song-wol, the singer and Samjiyon Orchestra leader, was met with much fanfare, although protesters in South Korea burnt North Korean flags and Kim Jong-un pictures.7 For Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong’s visit, Moon’s Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok, a well-known figure in North Korea,8 even hosted the final evening’s dinner.9

South Korea and North Korea agreed to form a joint women’s ice hockey team, enter the Olympics Opening Ceremony together while flying the unification flag, conduct ski team

3Jeong Kyu-jae, “To those who enjoy the PyeongChang Olympics,” (평창올림픽이 즐거운 여러분에게), Jeong Kyu-jae Video Column (정규재영상칼럼), February 9, 2018, https://youtu.be/F1KEWSD6_Vk , Refer to 11:00- 13:30 for the 800 billion Won provided by these companies. Shin Uen-jin, “Even After Paying 1 billion Won, Businessmen are not in PyeongChang” (1 조 후원하고도… 기업인들은 평창에 안보인다), Chosun.com, February 10, 2018, http://m.chosun.com/news/article.amp.html?sname=news&contid=2018021000257 4 Ibid, refer to 7:58-10:05 for a list of sponsors, including KB Financial Group for short track and bobsleigh; LG Electronics for figure skating; Korean Air for speed skating; POSCO for bobsleigh and skeleton; Hana Financial for Luge; Shinsegye & KB for curling, etc. Olympics event are great venues for the sponsors to promote these companies’ products and services, but they are staying low, because they don’t want to become the next Lee Jae- yong of Samsung, who got arrested and tried for “bribery” for his company providing funds for sports and athletes. 5 “As Olympics near, South Korea agonizes over post-Games costs,” USA Today, December 14, 2017, https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2017/12/14/as-olympics-near-south-korea-agonizes-over-post- games-costs/108613128/ 6 Kim Jong-un, “Kim Jong Un's 2018 New Year's Address,” English translation posted on The National Committee on North Korea, January 1, 2018, https://www.ncnk.org/node/1427 7Park Jeong-hoon, "Hyun Song-wol from North Korea arrives…Conservative Group Assembles for Kim Jung-un (Picture) Burning” (北 현송월 서울 도착... 보수단체, 김정은 화형식 집회), Sunday Paper TV (일요신문 TV), January 21, 2018, https://youtu.be/IV674SRxyC8

9 “Kim Yo-jung says ‘Hope we meet again in Pyongyang’…with Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok at the Farewell Dinner ” (김여정 "평양서 다시 만나길"...임종석 靑비서실장과 환송만찬), YTN, February 11, 2018, https://youtu.be/WvexzLeUTGw 2 practice at Masikryong Ski Resort in North Korea, hold a joint cultural event at Mount Geumgang in North Korea, and for South Korea to host North Korean athletes and support teams in South Korea.10 The Mount Geumgang event was canceled, probably due to the energy shortage in North Korea, and South Korea could not provide energy or other resources due to sanctions against North Korea because of its nuclear and missile development.

The decisions above, especially the forming of one team for women’s hockey and not flying the South Korean flag during the Olympics joint team entry at the Opening Ceremony caused a backlash in South Korea, especially among those in the 20s and 30s. They felt it was unfair that the South Korean hockey team members, who have trained for years to be in the Olympics would be displaced by placing North Koreans on the team. The young identified with the unfairness of such a situation and complained. They also felt that while it is fine for North Korea to be there, why not participate as separate teams and fly respective flags? The anger of the youth is reflected in a hip hop song called “PyongChang Yugam” (Regrets for PyeongChang), which says the PyeongChang Olympics became Pyongyang Olympics.11 It includes lyrics such as “What kind of Olympics host country seeks North Korea’s approval in determining whether to fly its own flag or not?,” “You’re opening paying tribute (to North Korea),” “hard work and sweat doesn’t matter” and “is this North Korea or South Korea?”12 The younger generation is the core supporters of Moon, so their complaints caused Moon to state that he should have tried harder to convince the public.

The controversy over the flag continued in protests. Those flying both the ROK and U.S. flags, protested against the NK musical performance in South Korea, which included performing not only at the Olympics, but at the National Theater in Seoul. The North Korean performance at the National Theater has a deep historic and symbolic significance. The National Theater is where the former First Lady Yuk Young-su, Park Chung-hee’s wife, was assassinated in 1974 by a pro-North Korea Chongryon (조총련) member. Park Chung-hee was president of South Korea at the time and the assassination attempt was meant to kill him, but failed. To many South Koreans, especially from the older generation who remember, North Korea performing at the National Theater was a great insult. They also protested against North Korea hijacking the Olympics and using it as propaganda.

With some people supporting and some people protesting, the Olympics Opening Ceremony commenced. It was a spectacular show, with drones showcasing the technological prowess of

10 Hyung-Jim Kim, “North and South Korea agree to form first unified Olympic team” Chicago Tribune, January 17, 2018, http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/international/ct-north-korea-2018-olympics-20180117-story.html 11 Boy Bugs (벌레소년), PyeongChang Yugam (평창 유감) Regrets for PyeongChang, January 26, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqYCWLRMRfI 12For English subtitles, see Boy Bugs (벌레소년), PyeongChang Yugam (평창 유감) Regrets for PyeongChang, February 11, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qx8xLo9dBvM&t=4s 3

South Korea. North Korea also took the center stage, receiving wide-spread media attention. The joint South-North team walked together with a unification flag. The North Korean cheering team waved North Korean flags in the cheering stand. The South Korean flag also eventually appeared, but only after much discussion and ire about why they were using the unification flag instead of the South Korean flag.

The importance of flags to national identity cannot be understated. In the time before modern media, flags were the first visible representation of a country. Even today flags are treated with reverence and hold great importance. They represent all of the values and accomplishments of the nation as well as a common bond among its people. The initial decision to use the unification flag and not the South Korean Flag caused much consternation.

While flags, as symbols of a country, are part of the state’s identity, there are other ways a state is identified. It appears there are also efforts to change South Korean identity through other elements of national identity: History and Constitution.

Changing History: Dates

What distinguishes the Republic of Korea (ROK) from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is that the ROK is a liberal democracy and market economy. Especially palpable is South Korea’s freedom—including individual freedom, freedom of press, freedom of movement, freedom of expression, and freedom of assembly. The ROK’s identity is intrinsically linked to the concept of freedom. Some of South Korea’s holidays—National Liberation Day, Armed Forces Day, and the National Police Day—are linked to the concept of liberal democracy and market economy. This identity began in 1948 when the ROK was born, after an UN-supervised election in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula. Although the initial plan was to hold the election for the entire Korean Peninsula, the UN election supervisors were not allowed to enter the northern half. Less than a month later, the Soviet Union-backed North Korea declared itself the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and pursued an opposite political and economic system of the U.S. and UN backed South Korea.

National Liberation Day August 15 is the National Liberation Day of Korea. Before that, it was a colony of Japan from 1910 until 1945. Korea was liberated when Japan announced its surrender to the U.S. and allied forces on August 15, 1945.13 This is a well-documented historical fact. Yet this fact is not reflected in North Korean history text books. North Korean state propaganda teaches that Kim

13 Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History (Revised and Updated), (Basic Books: Sheppard Poorman, Indianapolis, 1997), pp 7-9. For details on North Korea’s careful planning of the invasion of South Korea, pp 6-7. 4

Il-sung fought the Japanese and brought independence to Korea. Surprisingly, the fact that the U.S. liberated Korea is also hard to find in current South Korean history text books14.

A United Nations-supervised election for a Constitutional Assembly was held in May 1948. A constitution was created, with the provision for a presidential form of government. Dr. Syngman Rhee, as the head of the Assembly, became the first president and declared the founding of the Republic of Korea on August 15, 1948. ROK, supported by the U.S., followed the U.S. model, including its political system, economic system, and military structure.

August 15, therefore, celebrates not only the liberation from Japan, but it also commemorates the foundation of the Republic of Korea and its current system

President Moon gave a speech on August 15, 2017, in which he said the year 2019 marks the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Republic of Korea, identifying 1919, when the Provisional government was established in Shanghai, China as the foundation year.15 The proposal to change the ROK foundation year was controversial. The Liberty Korea Party argued that the Provisional government had no territory, no sovereignty, and no nation, and that modern South Korea had its beginning in its formation in 1948.16 Hong Jun-pyo, Liberty Korea Party representative, stated

It doesn’t become history just because the president rules it…the reason why (he) views the establishment of the Provisional government in 1919 as the time of national foundation is because [he is] conscious of North Korea and in order to avoid a legitimacy fight with North Korea, [he is] denying the establishment of one government [over the entire peninsula] in 1948.17

The controversy continues.

Armed Forces Day On September 10, 2018, National Assemblyman Kwon Chil-seung of Dubreo Minju Party (literally Together Democratic Party; from hereon “Democratic Party”) announced that 33

14 See the History: Text Book section of this paper. 15Im Joo-yeon, “Ruling and Opposition Parties in Sharp History Battle over Moon Jae-in’s ‘National Foundation 100th Anniversary’ remark” (문재인 '건국 100 주년' 발언 놓고 여야 날선 역사공방), Business Post, August 16, 2017, http://m.businesspost.co.kr/BP?command=mobile_view&idxno=56574#cb 16Park Soo-chan, “President Moon, ‘1919 as National Foundation” Again…Political Power Split in Two Over National Liberation Day (文대통령, 또 "1919 년 건국"… 광복절에 둘로 갈린 정치권), Chosun.com, August 16, 2017, http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/16/2017081600243.html?Dep0=twitter&d=2017081600243 17 Ibid 5

National Assembly members (32 from his party, 1 from People’s Party) sponsored a resolution to change the Armed Forces Day from October 1 to September 17.18 October 1 is a meaningful date for many reasons. In 1950 during the Korean War, it was the date the ROK 3rd Infantry Division broke through North Korean forces and crossed the 38th parallel, after the forced retreat to the Busan perimeter when a well-armed North Korea invaded South Korea. Additionally, after the cease fire in 1953, October 1 was the date the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty was signed, forging a “blood alliance.” October 1 is also the date that the three branches of military service were completed, with the formation of the ROK Air Force on October 1, 1949. The ROK Navy was created on November 11, 1945, ROK Army on January 15, 1946, and ROK Marine Corps (which is under the Navy) on April 15, 1949.

September 17, 1940 is when the Korean Liberation Army was created under the Provisional government, which by then moved to Chungking, China.

There are those who say that the current date instils anti-communism ideology and perpetuates the division of the peninsula, while the opposition parties—Liberty Korea party and Justice party—state that changing the date divides power into a national independence faction and a national foundation faction.19 They also see that such a move would reduce the meaning of the ROK government as the sole authority over the Korean Peninsula and increase the room for enhancing North Korea’s legitimacy.20

Police Day The ROK Police Foundation Day is October 21. The ROK police bureau was created on October 21, 1945. Following the bill to change the date of the Armed Forces Day, the Democratic Party introduced another bill to change the National Police Day from October 21 to November 15.21 Again, this change is linked to the 1919 Provisional government. On November 5, 1919, the Provisional government in China created a temporary administrative law in which it mentioned establishing a police bureau. National Assemblywoman Lee Jae-jung asserted “changing the date to November 5 would recover the police’s historical legitimacy and dignity by clarifying the

18 Ahn Hyo-seong, “Democratic Party, ‘Let’s Change the Armed Forces Day to Korean Liberation Army’s Foundation Day…Conservative Opposition Party, ‘Dividing Power into Independence and National Foundation” (민주당 “국군의 날, 광복군 창설일로 바꾸자” … 보수야당 “독립·건국 세력 편가르기,” JoongAng Ilbo, September 11, 2017, http://news.joins.com/article/21923321 19Lee Seol, “Armed Forces Day on the 1st…Controversy Continues over the ‘Commemoration Day Change’” (1 일 국군의날…'기념일 변경' 놓고 논란은 계속), Asia Economy, October 1, 2017, http://www.asiae.co.kr/news/view.htm?idxno=2017100112501050435 20 Jeon Joon-hyeong, “The National Foundation Day Controversy Spills Over to Armed Forces Day, Police Day” (국군의날·경찰의날로 번진 건국절 논란), YTN, http://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0101_201710010521208836 21 Ibid 6 beginning of the police was not during the transitional U.S. Military Government after the Japanese occupation, but during the Provisional government’s police bureau.”22

Thus there were persistent efforts to change the founding dates of South Korea and its institutions soon after Moon Jae-in became the president by trying to dissociate South Korea’s foundation away from 1948 and toward 1919 when the Provisional Korean government was created. This appears to be an effort to change the identity of what became the Republic of Korea since its independence. Kim Moon-soo, former Gyeonggi Provence governor and a former labor activist, hopes that the Moon administration, by denying the foundation of South Korea, is not strengthening North Korea’s legitimacy.23

Changing History: Textbooks

Another way to change the identity is to change people’s mindset and understanding of history through education. South Korean history education and history text books for children have changed gradually over the last several decades, heavily influenced by the Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union (KTU, 전국교직원노동조합, 전교조 for short), which has been criticized for pro-North Korea ideology and anti-American activities.24 For instance, five members of the KTU’s Busan Branch were found guilty of violating the National Security Law for extracting information from the North Korean history book Modern Korean History and teaching it to students at the Unification School they operated. The contents praised Kim Il- sung’s Juche ideology and Kim Jong-il’s Songun (Military First) politics as well as supported socialism.25 In yet another case, a history cartoon text book praises Kim Il-sung. The pictures

22 Jeong Hui-wan, “Pushing for Passage of Bill to Change ’Police Day’ from October 21 to November 5…Opinion Emerges within the Police” (‘경찰의 날’ 10 월 21 일에서 11 월 5 일로 변경” 법안 추진···경찰 내부에서도 의견 나와), KyungHyang. September 1, 2017, http://m.khan.co.kr/view.html?artid=201709011053001&code=940100 23 Interview with former Kyonggi Provence Governor and former labor activist Kim Moon-soo, “Kim Moon-soo, ‘Is Moon Jae-in Really the President of the Republic of Korea?...Even Gangster North Korea is Celebrating the 70th Anniversary of Its Founding…” (김문수, "문재인, 대한민국 대통령 맞나… 깡패 국가 북한도 건국 70 주년 기념하는데…), Chogapje TV, January 7, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cft8y9U1WkQ&sns=emcft8y9U1WkQ, 2:45-3:45 24 Joshua Stanton, “Korean Academic Cites Left-Wing Bias in Textbooks,” OneFreeKorea, January 18, 2006, http://freekorea.us/2006/01/18/korean-academic-cites-left-wing-bias-in- textbooks/#sthash.6neGksbW.RYCvxhxr.dpbs 25 “Teachers Penalized for quoting North Korean history books to make lecture materials,” (북한 역사책' 인용해 강의자료 만든 교사 징역형), SBS News, February 13, 2009, http://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1000543960 See also “KTU quoted North Korean History book to make textbook” (North 전교조, 북한 역사책 인용 교재 제작), YTN, July 6, 2006, http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LPOD&mid=tvh&oid=052&aid=0000123619 7 depict Kim as a hero welcomed by everyone as well as him kicking a landowner to confiscate the land and redistributing to an eager and thankful crowd.26

The history textbook contents continue to change after Moon’s election. In July 2017, the Ministry of Education declared it is revising the education process and the writing standard and began modifying the history text books, with the goal of having a new history text book. In the revision, the following are added, deleted, or changed:27

- Deleted “Liberal” from “Liberal Democracy” (note: North Korea also claims “democracy”; it has democracy in its name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) - Deleted “Republic of Korea was created in 1948” and replaced with “Republic of Korea government was created” - Significantly expanded the topic of the Japanese occupation - Significantly expanded the topic of the democracy movement - Added “Don’t be locked into the nationalistic view that economic growth was due to the government and the citizens, but grasp how it was possible in the global economic fluctuation process.”

Why does the Moon administration want to delete the concepts of “individual freedom” and “rule of law” embedded in “liberal” democracy? While “democracy” remains, there is also illiberal democracy. Fareed Zakaria wrote in “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy”:

It has been difficult to recognize this problem because for almost a century in the West, democracy has meant liberal democracy—a political system marked not only by free and fair elections, but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property. In fact, this latter bundle of freedoms—what might be termed constitutional liberalism—is theoretically different and historically distinct from democracy. As the political scientist Philippe Schmitter has pointed out, "Liberalism, either as a conception of political liberty, or as a doctrine about economic policy, may have coincided with the rise of democracy. But it has never been immutably or unambiguously linked to its practice." Today the two strands of liberal democracy,

26See pictures of the textbook in “The Reality of Elementary School History Textbook seen from a Parent” (어느 학부모가 본 초등역사도서의 실태), Association of Parents for Correct Education, https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.nhn?blogId=bahakyeon&logNo=220905252413&proxyReferer=https%3A%2F %2Fwww.google.co.kr%2F 27 Lee, Seul-gi, “’Liberal Democracy’ Deleted in the History Textbook Standard, To be Confirmed This Month..’Hasty’ Propelling Controversy” ('자유민주' 삭제 역사교과서 기준, 이달 확정…'졸속' 추진 논란), PenN, January 12, 2018, https://www.pennmike.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=852 8

interwoven in the Western political fabric, are coming apart in the rest of the world. Democracy is flourishing; constitutional liberalism is not.28

The removal of the concept of constitutional liberalism from the children’s history textbook is disturbing, especially when observed in context with efforts to change the history away from the defining moment of the Republic of Korea’s creation in 1948, and efforts to down-play what the ROK has become since then—a successful and prosperous liberal democracy and market economy.

The increasing emphasis on engendering anti-Japanese and anti-U.S. feelings in children through education is also disconcerting. Japan colonized Korea for 35 years, but Japan also provided $800 million in the 1960s (more than $6 trillion in 2015 dollars) that provided crucial capital for its economy, such as the steel industry and infrastructure.29 Japan is also important for South Korea’s national security, because it provides UN bases, from which the UN forces would flow to defend South Korea in case of another invasion from North Korea.30 China has also invaded Korea numerous times throughout Korea’s history. Additionally, China intervened in the Korean War, contributing to Korea’s division.31 It has even tried to claim the history of Goguryeo, one of the three kingdoms of Korea, as one of its many tribes through its Northeast Asia Project.32 However China does not receive the same negative attention as Japan. Russia also played a significant role in the division of Korea by occupying the northern half and placing Kim Il-sung as the leader, and then supporting him when he invaded South Korea during the Korean War.33 It was the UN, led by the U.S., that kept South Korea from becoming absorbed into North Korea under its totalitarian, Kim family-worshipping system by fighting against the invading North Korean forces, and then later the Chinese volunteer forces. The U.S. political and economic support were crucial in South Korea becoming a free and prosperous society. Despite this, China and Russia’s roles are cast aside. Only Japan and the U.S. become subjects of inculcating young students’ minds with hatred or dislike, ignoring their positive roles in the ROK’s political and economic system and the prosperity and freedom that the South Koreans enjoy today.

Encouraging young students to not view the role of the government and the people in South Korea’s economic development seems to be an effort to reduce the role of the former

28 Fareed Zakaria, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 6, (November/December 1997), pp 22-23. 29 Ishikida, Miki Y, Toward Peace: War Responsibility, Postwar Compensation, and Peace Movements and Education in Japan, (iUniverse: New York, 2005). p 21 30 HQ United National Command-Rear, UN Command-Rear Fact Sheet, http://www.yokota.af.mil/Portals/44/Documents/Units/AFD-150924-004.pdf 31 Bradley K. Martin, Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty, (Thomas Dunne Books: New York, 2004), pp 83-87. 32 Tara O, The Collapse of North Korea: Challenges, Planning and Geopolitics of Unification, (Palgrave MacMillan: London, 2016), pp 73-74. 33 Don Oberdorfer,pp 7-9. See Martin pp. 69-73. 9 president Park Chung-hee and the older generation, in the phenomenal economic development that has become a model for other developing countries. It may also be an effort to reduce the pride that people place in launching South Korea into such a spectacular success, in essence lessening the people’s identification with the Republic of Korea and its system.

Constitutional Reform

Yet another part of the Republic of Korea’s identity is its constitution. The Moon administration is also focused on changing the ROK constitution. The National Assembly Constitutional Revision Special Advisory Committee (국회 헌법개정특위 자문위원회) has been working on a constitutional amendment draft since February 2017, and on January 1, 2018, the Committee released its draft, including (but not limited to) the following changes:34

- Preamble: Deleted “Liberal Democracy as basic order” of the Republic of Korea - Preamble: Added “The realization of flexible and equal democratic society” - 4th Article: Deleted ‘liberal’ in ‘Peaceful unification predicated upon the foundation of liberal democracy” - 33rd Article, 2nd clause: added “guarantee of appropriate living income” - 35th Article, 2nd clause: added “prohibition of period/dispatch (contract) work” - 35th Article, 5th clause: added “prohibition of dismissal based on principle” - 36th Article, 2nd clause: added “guarantee of labor union participation in management” - Replaced ‘free market economy” with “equal democratic society” - Elimination of temporary work (by hiring people without time limit) - Prohibition of layoffs - Added “the right to receive income and social services” - Added the term “social economy”

The constitutional reform draft apparently was prepared in secret, as the committee’s chairman Lee Chooyoung (opposition Liberty Party) and the co-chairman Kim Hyung-o (former National Assembly Speaker) were not even aware of its existence; they never received any reports.35 There were no constitutional specialists on the committee, but rather it was dominated by civil society activists.36 Chief spokesman for Liberty Party Chang Jewon was caught off guard, stating that liberal democracy as the basic order, which is the foundation of

34 Yang, Seung-shik, “Even the Constitution is Facing Left…Even Abolishing Temporary Employment is Inserted” (헌법도 좌향좌… '비정규직 폐지'까지 넣었다), Chosun.com, January 2, 2018, http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2018/01/02/2018010200230.html 35“Who Secretly made the “Socialist Constitution” that Even the Committee Chairman Didn’t Know” (위원장도 몰랐던 '사회주의 헌법' 누가 몰래 만들었나), New Daily, February 24, 2018, http://www.newdaily.co.kr/mobile/mnewdaily/article.php?contid=2018010200072 36Ibid 10 the national system, disappeared from the constitution and social economy is emphasized instead of free market economy.37 Chang criticized the Moon administration for using constitutional reform as a mask to cover its intent to turn the Republic of Korea into a socialist country.38

The Democratic Party announced on February 1, 2018 that the party platform came together on the idea of deleting “liberal democracy as a basic order” and replacing it with “democracy as a basic order,” but revised it after four hours. The party also wanted to add statements on the “candlelight revolution” (that led to Park Geun-hye’s impeachment), the Gwangju resistance, and other demonstrations against the government. The Liberty Korea Party opposed such a platform. National Representative Kim Jin-tae of the Liberty Korea Party stated that the Constitution is not a certain supporters’ public statement, and said the “candlelight” cannot be forced on everyone.39

Decentralization Another controversial constitutional amendment issue is decentralization or “boonkwon.” The idea of disbursing power away from the central authority sounds innocuous at first. According to the Presidential Special Advisory Committee on the National Constitution website, it can energize the economy by policies based on local conditions, realize grassroots democracy through invigorating people’s autonomy, and strengthen national competitiveness by central and local trade cooperation.40 It is unclear what these actually mean, since there are no other explanations, details, or implications on the website.

The criticism comes from Moon’s efforts to decentralize South Korea in order to bring it close to a federation. In fact, the Ministry of Interior and Safety website has a decentralization section, which states that the goal is for a “powerful decentralization approaching federation.”41 Cho Won-ryong of Lawyers for Citizens’ Freedom and Human Rights stated he opposes the decentralization for two reasons: 1) It is a step toward supporting the North Korea’s goal of federation called “Goryeo Federation,” and 2) it is dangerous to atomize police and other powers to local areas when South Korea needs strong central power to face North Korea, which has a very different system.42

37Ibid 38Ibid 39 “Kim Jin-tae, ‘Candlelight Revolution in the Constitution? Nonsense” (김진태 "촛불혁명을 헌법에? 어림없다), New Daily, February 24, 2018, http://www.newdaily.co.kr/mobile/mnewdaily/article.php?contid=2018020200075 40 Presidential Special Advisory Committee on National Constitution website https://www.constitution.go.kr/ 41Republic of Korea Ministry of Interior and Safety, “Decentralization Road Map” section, “Vision and Strategy” tab,” accessed on February 25, 2018, http://www.mois.go.kr/localselfgov/s01.html 42“Decentralization Model, Constitutional Reform Going Towards Federation?” (지방분권형 개헌 연방제로 가려하나?), Freedom News, February 20, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdK_- meiDac&feature=youtu.be, 2:45-4:08 11

According to Professor Kim Chul-hong of Presbyterian University and Theological Seminary, who once was a devoted Marxist, the most dangerous part is “grassroots democracy through autonomy” portion mentioned above. To carry it out, numerous autonomous government entities would be formed not only at the provincial and city levels, but also counties, boroughs, towns, districts, subdivisions, neighborhoods, apartment buildings, etc.43 South Korea currently has 17 provinces and provincial-level cities as well as 226 counties, boroughs, and equivalent level cities, which would create at least 243 local autonomous governments. With the addition of other sub-levels, there would be numerous autonomous governments, with the effect of breaking up the country.44 What concerns Kim goes beyond the disintegration. Prior to the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, the communists in Russia formed “soviets” or councils in 1905 centered around labor, farmers, and the military. These grassroots level councils became the driving force behind a small number of communists seizing power. These councils are essential to socialist countries and North Korea also has them. The grassroots autonomous local governments are like the councils, and if they become a reality in South Korea, then Kim sees that as a successful revolution and the demise of South Korea.45

Seeking Constitutional Reform in a Hurry The Moon administration and the ruling Democratic Party are seeking the constitutional amendment draft by February 2018 and said they will consult the draft.46 On February 10, 2018, President Moon said at a press conference that if the committee at the National Assembly cannot agree on a constitutional amendment bill by late February and table a bill by early March, then his administration will have to work on its own.47 The Moon administration, however, already had plans to make its own constitutional amendment even prior to the announcement.48 Moon formed Special Advisory Committee on National Constitution (국민헌법자문특별위원회) directly under him, and named Jung Hae-gu, the head of the Presidential Committee on Policy Planning, as the new committee’s chair.49 The committee

43 Kim Chul-hong, “The Hidden Intent Behind the Constitutional Amendments on Decentralization: Break up of the Country and Unification through Federation” (지방분권형 헌법개정의 숨은 의도: 국가해체와 연방제 통일), PenN, February 20, 2018, http://www.pennmike.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=2442 44 Ibid 45 Ibid 46 Ibid 47Kim, Bo-hyob, “President Moon, ‘If the National Assembly Can’t Table a Constitutional Amendment Bill by March, then (his) Administration Will Make Its Own Bill” (문 대통령 “개헌, 국회서 3 월 발의 안되면 정부안 내겠다), January 10, 2018, http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/bluehouse/827218.html 48Sang-jun Han, “Gov't to propose constitutional revision proposal by mid-March,” Dong-A Ilbo, February 8, 2018, http://english.donga.com/List/3/01/26/1219249/1 49 Jung Hae-gu also headed the committee to reform the National Intelligence Service, taking away 2 departments and the NIS’ role in conducting counterintelligence and investigation into North Korean agents and spies in South Korea. 12 already created a sleek interactive website, which is short on details, but with pleasing look for getting public input and support for the constitutional amendments.50

Moon made it clear that he wants to present the constitutional amendments for votes in June, when there will be a national election. Im Jong-Seok, Moon’s Chief of Staff, appeared at the National Assembly to urge it to speed up the constitutional reform process.51 Some of the provincial and city governments, while out collecting survey information, are already collecting signatures to garner support as well since they support decentralization.52 Promotional activities to gather public support for constitutional reform are already underway.

Taking away the concept of constitutional liberalism, especially individual freedom, and introducing heavy government intervention in businesses do indeed appear to set South Korean on a path toward socialism politically and economically, and brings it more in line with North Korea’s constitution.53 The decentralization could also have the effect of a profound systemic change that would undergird a federation or confederation. The proposed constitutional amendments that orient South Korea toward socialism and decentralization could help the process of low-level/loose form of federation dominated by North Korea.

Moon Jae-in, Im Jong-seok, et. al.

Often, the adjective that precedes Moon and his party are “liberal” or “progressive,” giving affinity to the liberal and progressive groups in the U.S. or elsewhere, but that belies the reality of intolerance, retribution, and pro-North Korea tendencies.

Although his name often comes after “former human rights lawyer,” he has not been on the forefront of human rights for Koreans in North Korea or those who escaped from North Korea who are in South Korea. In fact, when he was in the ROK National Assembly, his party blocked efforts to pass the North Korean Human Rights Act because they did not want to anger North Korea.54 Meanwhile, the U.S. passed the North Korean Human Rights Act in 2004, Japan in

50 See the committee’s website at https://www.constitution.go.kr/ 51 Kim Hyun and Seong Do-hyeon, “Im Jong-seok ‘constitutional amendments for June (election), Not Much Time Left…Urges the National Assembly to Speed Up“ (임종석 "6 월 개헌, 시간 얼마 남지않아..국회서 속도 내달라), News 1, February 21, 2018, http://news1.kr/articles/?3241058 52 Hwang Jang-su, “War, 5 Major Crisis Loom, but the Moon Administration is Focused on Constitutional Reform, Ideological Play? Civil Servants, Don’t’ Intervene in the Constitutional Reform!”[Political Analysis], Part 4 (문정권 전쟁위기 외 5 대 위기가 다가오는데 개헌, 이념놀음? 공무원 개헌 개입 마라! [정치분석], 4 부, Hwang Jang- su’s News Briefing, February 21, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GK-lRDawIs&sns=em, 2:13-4:00 53 Korea (Democratic People's Republic of)'s Constitution of 1972 with Amendments through 1998, Subsequently amended, ConstituteProject.org, accessed on February 24, 2018, https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Peoples_Republic_of_Korea_1998.pdf?lang=en 54 O, Tara, “Human Rights Policies Toward North Korea,” Korea Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, (June 2013), 97 13

2006, and the UN in 2005.55 After 11 years, a compromised version was finally passed in March 2016 under then president Park Geun-hye.

Moon created domestic controversy in February 2018 when he openly remarked that he admires Shin Young-bok, an activist and a poet, at the reception prior to the Olympics Opening Ceremony. 56 Moon made the statement in front of Kim Yong-nam, the ceremonial head of state of North Korea. Shin was jailed on charges of being a member of the Unification Revolutionary Party (통일혁명당), which upholds Juche ideology, calls Kim Il-sung as the national sun, and refers to itself as the political power for a revolutionary unification.57 Shin was such an important figure to North Korea that in 1975, North Korea detained three South Korean diplomats in Vietnam and strongly demanded that Shin be exchanged and sent to North Korea.58

During Rho Moo-hyun’s presidency, Moon Jae-in was Rho’s Chief of Staff. This was the time of “Peace and Prosperity” policy, which was essentially an extension of former president Kim Dae- jung’s Sunshine policy of unconditional aid to North Korea.

Rho’s Foreign Minister Song Min-soon, a career diplomat, wrote in his memoir published in October 2016 that Moon Jae-in made the decision to ask North Korea for their opinion before voting on the 2007 UN Resolution on North Korean Human Rights.59 Song wrote “how can we ask [North Korea] such a question? The answer would be obvious. Let’s take a long-term approach and vote for,” but Moon said they should check with North Korea first.60 South Korea ended up abstaining from the UN vote. As this became hot issue in the running up to the

55 Ibid 56 “Shin Yong-bok who President Moon Jae-in Said He Admired Was a Sply” (문재인 대통령이 존경한다는 신영복은 간첩이었다), February 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEYM6j7eZxU&feature=youtu.be 57 Jo Gwang-hyeong, “What’s the Reason for Kyobo [Bookstore] in Promoting Shin Yong-bok, who Upholds Kim Il- sung Revolution?” (김일성 혁명 떠받든 신영복, 교보가 띄워주는 까닭은?), New Daily, August 26, 2015, http://www.newdaily.co.kr/site/data/html/2015/08/25/2015082500074.html 58 Park Min-ji, “ President Moon Delivers Message to the North Using, ‘Shin Young-bok’ Writings, Caligraphy, and Painting” (文 대통령, ‘신영복’ 글과 서화 활용해 대북 메시지 전달), Hankook Ilbo, February 10, 2018, http://news.kmib.co.kr/article/view.asp?arcid=0012121575&code=61111211&sid1=pol 59 “Moon's campaign sues former foreign minister over memoir controversy,” Yonhap, April, 24, 2017, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/04/24/0301000000AEN20170424006051315.html 60 Park Yumi, “Song Min-soon ‘How Can We Ask North Korea Such a Question, The Answer’s Obvious,” (송민순 “그런 걸 북한에 물어보면 어떡하나, 대답 뻔한데) Joongan Sunday, October 16, 2016, http://news.joins.com/article/20728717 14 presidential election, Moon denied everything and sued Song for libel and a host of other charges.61

National Assemblywoman Chu Mi-ae of Democratic Party has also threatened to find out and sue those writing online comments (after articles or other posts) who referred to Moon Jae-in as “Moon Jae-ang”—“Jae-ang” means disaster, and it is a play on words. Previous presidents also had such unappealing nick names, but this is the first time anyone threatened to sue for that reason.62 The threat, if carried out, not only infringes upon freedom of speech, but also potential invasions of people’s privacy, as “finding out” would involve getting personal information from popular portals such as Naver and Daum.

Chu also advocated for government ownership of land, and made such remarks multiple times. At a press corps luncheon on October 9, 2017, Chu said if Henry George were alive, he could have supported the Chinese method of giving the land use right to the common people and the land ownership to the government.63 For “people,” she used the term “inmin,” which is not used in South Korea, but in North Korea. In North Korea, of course the land is owned by the state.

Perhaps the most controversial figure in the Moon administration is Im Jong-seok, Moon’s Chief of Staff. In 2005, Im founded the South-North Economic and Cultural Cooperation Foundation (남북경제문화협력재단) and became its chairman.64 The foundation has been collecting royalties on behalf of North Korea from South Korean broadcasters and online educational companies for using North Korean TV footages. The Unification Ministry estimated that the foundation collected $1,876,700 over 13 years and transferred the royalties every year until the

61 Kim Jae-chang, “Moon Jae-in, ‘North Korea Human Rights Resolution Controversy’ Sues Song Min-soon and Concentrates All His Efforts on Extinguishing the Controversy” (문재인, ‘북한 인권결의 논란' 송민순 고발하고 진화에 온힘, Business Post, April 24, 2017, http://www.businesspost.co.kr/BP?command=article_view&num=47818 62 Oh Pil-seung, “Netizens Enraged over Chu Mi-ae’s Statement about Punishing Online Commenters on Using Moon Jae-ang” ("문재앙 댓글 처벌" 추미애 발언에 네티즌 격앙), The Freedom Daily, February 28, 2018, http://www.jayoo.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=1895 63 Jo Jeong-rin, “Chu Mi-ae ‘The Chinese Method of National Ownership of Land Could Be Desirable” (추미애 "국가 토지 소유 중국 방식 바람직할 수도" 발언 논란), TV Chosun, October 9, 2017, http://news.tvchosun.com/mobile/svc/osmo_news_detail.html?contid=2017100990142, 0:33-0:41 64 Park Hee-seok, “The Inside Story on the Public Contract of South-North Economic and Cultural Cooperation Foundation where Im Jong-seok was the Chairman” (임종석(任鍾晳)이 이사장으로 있던 남북경제문화협력재단의 공공기관 용역 수주 내역), Monthly Chosun, October 2017, https://monthly.chosun.com/client/news/viw.asp?nNewsNumb=201710100032 15

ROK sanctions after the Cheonan naval ship sinking.65 The foundation still collects royalties while it waits for the sanctions to be lifted to allow the money transfer.66

Im Jong-seok represents the “586 generation”—those who were student activists in the 80s, and born in the 60s who are in their 50s now (used to be “386” general in their hey days) or the “Jusapa,”—those who devoutly studied Kim Il-sung’s Juche ideology. Jusapa follows North Korea’s National Liberation People’s Democratic Revolution Theory (민족해방 민중민주주의 혁명론) of driving out the “imperial” power and unifying the Korean Peninsula under Kim family’s Juche ideology through revolution.67 Im was the leader of the National Council of Student Representatives (전국대학생대표자협의회; abbreviaton: 전대협), which consolidated various student activists’ organizations into one.68 In video footage, Im clearly appears to be in awe as he talked on the phone with a North Korean head of a sports delegation visiting Vienna.69 After that call, Im sent a fellow student activist Lim Su-kyung to North Korea to attend a festival in Pyongyang in 1989.70 They were both arrested and jailed for violating the National Security Law. Lim su- kyung is currently a National Assemblywoman of the Democratic Party (a proportional representative-not elected).

The student activism in the 1980s is often portrayed as a democracy movement, but it deserves a more critical examination. According to the press conference statement of the Truth Forum, an alliance of 43 university student organizations, “the democratic movement of the 1980s in South Korea should not be praised uncritically because the movement at its core had North Korea's Kim Il Sung Juche ideology followers, who sought to subvert the liberal democratic system and market economy of the Republic of Korea.”71 The Jusapa’s belief is that the “imperial Americans” keep Korea from unifying,

65 Lee Young-jong, “’Must We Pay to Watch North’s Propaganda Videos?’ Controversy over Paying Royalty to North Korea” (“북 선전영상 돈 주고 봐야 하나” … 대북 저작권료 지불 논란), Joongang Ilbo, July 19, 2017, http://news.joins.com/article/21769096 66 Ibid 67 Kim Pil-jae, “People’s Democracy is Modified Communism”Chogapje.com, (민중민주주의(인민민주주의)는 '변형(變形) 공산주의'), January 15, 2015, http://www.chogabje.com/board/view.asp?C_IDX=63857&C_CC=AB 68 “Ex-student activist tapped as Moon's chief of staff),” Yonhap News Agency, May 10, 2017, http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170510006700315&input=www.twitter.com&site=02000 00000&mobile 69 “The True Identity of the Blue House Chief of Staff Jusapa Im Jong-Seok” (청와대 비서실장 주사파 임종석의 실체), May 15, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGTYOZkgWL8, 0:17, Im is talking on the phone with a North Korean sports chairman Ri Chang-yang visiting Vienna when Im was the leader of the National Council of Student Representatives. 70“The Identity of the Republic of Korea National Assemblywoman Lim Su-kyung” (한민국 국회의원 임수경의 정체), December 17, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXDX4nHIIHI 71 Truth Forum, “Truth Forum Foreign Press Conference, ‘We Denounce Moon Jae-in Juche Ideology Faction Administration” (트루스 포럼 외신 기자회견 | "문재인 주사파 정권을 규탄한다!), Steins Channel, (February 26 Korea time), February 25, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ce6tDEDGb4&t=34s, 9:00 16 so they need to drive out this imperial force and the pro-U.S. South Korean government by closely working with North Korea.72 Their morning greeting was “Did you hear North Korea’s broadcast last night?” according to Kim Chulhong, a staunch Marxist during the 80s, who turned away from the ideology and became a theology professor.73 He differentiated the Marxist from the Jusapa in that Jusapa believed in unifying the peninsula under North Korea’s Juche ideology to achieve a socialist society.74

Im Jong-seok’s role does not seem to be limited to Chief of Staff duties. On December 9, 2017, he embarked on a trip to Lebanon and the UAE as a special envoy, which was announced only after he had already departed, sparking speculation about potential contacts with North Korea while on his visit.75 The reason given for his visit was to cheer the deployed ROK troops, but it is questionable why the Chief of Staff would be the one to go on that mission, especially since the Defense Minister Song Young-Moo already visited the troops in November.76

Im had also directly addressed the plenary session of the National Assembly’s Steering Committee meeting to implore the National Assembly to rush the settlement on the Constitutional amendment bill, citing the administration’s self-imposed deadline of the June 13 election repeatedly.77 Addressing the National Assembly’s general assembly is an act that is more appropriate for the president, rather than his Chief of Staff. Im addressing the National Assembly, therefore, raised questions whether he was out of line.78 Due to his prominent activities and behaviors, people are beginning to wonder if Im is the real power in the administration.79 Hosting dinner for Kim Yo-jung and the North Korean delegation the night before their departure did not lessen the perception about Im’s power going beyond his Chief of Staff role.80

72 “Kim Chulhong’s Escape from the Left—Post-Impeachment Republic of Korea is Already in a Civil War Situation ([김철홍의 좌파 탈출기]-대통령 탄핵 대한민국은 이미 내전상태), Media Pen, February 22, 2017, http://m.mediapen.com/news/view/238006 73 Ibid 74 Ibid 75 Kang Tae-hwa and Sarah Kim “Chief of staff heads to UAE and Lebanon as special envoy, Korea Joongang Daily, December 12, 2017, http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3041925 76 Ibid 77 Han Gi-ho, “Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok Going Overboard…Is He forgetting his “Chief of Staff’s Duties?” (너무 '오버'하는 임종석 靑비서실장...'비서의 본분' 망각한 건 아닌가), PenN, February 22, 2018, http://www.pennmike.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=2523 78 Ibid 79 Hwang Jang-su, “Why did Im Jong-seok Go to the Middle East in such a Strange time and why Was It Announced After He Left?” (임종석은 왜 이상한 시기에 중동을 갔고 가고난 뒤에 발표했나?), Hwang Jang-su News Briefing, December 11, 2017, https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.nhn?blogId=pjbjp24&logNo=221160453450&proxyReferer=https://t.co/3kg4 Oo0LTX, 2:24-2:40 80 Hyonhee Shin, “Moon's chief of staff takes center stage in inter-Korean détente,” Reuters, February 15, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea/moons-chief-of-staff-takes-center-stage-in-inter- korean-detente-idUSKCN1FZ0FP 17

In addition to Im, there are 25 more former student and civic activists, comprising more than a third of the [Blue House] staff.81 National Assemblywoman Jun Hee-kyung of the opposition Liberty Korea Party criticized the Moon administration for its ill handling of national security and economic policy. She said the administration comprised of numerous Jusapa personnel, who had consistently held anti-government and anti-U.S. views, and said they still haven’t made it clear that they have turned away from those positions.82

Federation/Confederation

I promised during the last presidential campaign that, even if I have to revise the constitution, I will make a federation-equivalent decentralized republic and strong policy of balanced national development.

-- Moon Jae-in, Democratic Party’s primary presidential candidate, January 22, 2017, Cheongju83

I will achieve without fail the confederation or low-level/loose form of federation that former president Kim Dae-jung dreamt about during the next administration through a government power change.

-- Moon Jae-in, Democratic Unionist Party presidential candidate, August 18, 2012, former president Kim Dae-jung’s 3rd Memorial Ceremony, National Cemetery, Seoul84

South and North are closer to peaceful unification through Kim Dae-jung and Rho Moo-hyun administrations. We can now hope to achieve Confederation or low level/loose federation.

-- Moon Jae-in, Democratic Unionist Party Standing Advisor, February 2, 201185

81 Hwang Jang-su, 1:44-2:11 82 “Jun Hee-kyung vs Im Jong-seok, the Best Quarrel, Jusapa Dominated Blue House ‘Not Enough Words to Say All,’ Confused Situation ‘Observe Decorum,’ Im Jong-seok ‘Representative [Jun], is That Even a Question?” (전희경 의원 vs 임종석 실장 역대급 말싸움 주사파 장악 청와대 '말로 다할 수 없다' 질의 혼선 '예의 지키십시오'_임종석 실장 의원님 그게 질의입니까?), November 5, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcsZ0UpQlcc, 2:08-9:48, 18:54-19:16 83 Eom Gi-chan, “Moon Jae-in Visits Cheongju, ‘To Pursue Strong Balanced Development.’” (청주 찾은 문재인 "강력한 균형발전 정책 추진"), Cheongju Media, January 11, 2017, http://www.thecm.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=10112 84 “The 3rd DJ Memorial Service…General Mobilization of All Democratic Party Presidential Contenders” (DJ 3 주기 추도식..민주당 대선주자 총출동), Yonhap News, August 18, 2012, http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/politics/2012/08/18/0505000000AKR20120818032351001.HTML 85 Shinui Han-su, “Moon Jae-in’s ‘Loose Confederation’ is way for a [North Korea] enemy-dominated unification”(문재인의 '낮은단계연방제'는 적화통일 방안), Shinui Han-su #390, September 25, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHAq9xqGccY 18

President Moon Jae-in has repeatedly stated his goal of achieving a “confederation” or a “low- level federation” (or loose form of federation) over the years. His party, the Democratic Party supports it. His key advisors, especially his Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok, support it. So does North Korea. Kim Il-sung suggested a low-level or loose form of federation through a New Year’s speech in 1991.86 Over time, North Korea’s terminology on unification efforts has changed successively: the Revolutionary Democratic Base Theory; South Joseon (South Korea) Revolutionary Theory; South-North Federation; Goryeo Federation; Goryeo Federal Democratic Republic establishment measures; and the latest low level / loose form of federation. 87

This low-level federation envisions one nation, one state, two separate systems, and two administrations, and retains the current politics, military, and foreign affairs, but creates an overarching entity to control the unification process, with the idea of moving ultimately to unification.88 In the process, foreign affairs and national security would fall under a newly created central government, and as such, the Republic of Korea would be downgraded to a province and lose sovereignty, no longer able to use its country’s name, flag, or anthem.89

If such a low-level confederation were to become a reality, important questions arise. If the country’s official and name and character changes, are the international agreements with it still current after activating a new entity? For instance, is the U.S. –ROK Mutual Defense Treaty still valid with a federated Korea that includes North Korea and has a different name for the new entity?

Who controls “federated” Korea? Consider the following scenario of a new central entity controlling unification. If the agreement is 50/50 ROK and DPRK composition, North Korea could control 100% of its half plus the portion of its supporters from South Korea’s half, which would lead to the joint entity dominated by North Korea.90 The discussion of the presence of U.S. forces, would emerge during the unification process, leading to the withdrawal of the U.S. troops, followed by the nullification of the National Security Law and legalization of socialist/communist activity, leading to higher- level federation.91

86 Choi Min-sook, ed., The History of South-North Relations: 60 Years of Conflict and Reconciliation (Nam Buk Gwangwe-sa), Ewha Women’s University Press: Seoul, 2009), p 67 87 Suh Ok-shik, “57 Years after North Korea’s Federation Proposal, Even Moon Jae-in Supports” (北 연방제 제시 57 주년, 문재인도 지지), AllInKorea, August 14, 2017, http://m.allinkorea.net/36483 88 Kim Pil-Jae, “North Korea's Unification Method is a Proposal for a Low-level Federation” (북한의 통일방안 '낮은단계연방제' 이야기), Kim Pil-Jae TV, November 3, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwOXsNBZbqw&t=85s, 6:07-6:56 89 Suh 90 Shinui Han-su,3:00-3:32 91 Kim Pil-Jae, 7:48-8:45 19

If there were to be a general election to select the leader of a federated Korea, it could well be North Korea’s candidate that receives the most votes. Assume 70% are of voting age, so 70% of 25 million or 17.5 million votes in North Korea; 70% of 50 million or 35 million voters in South Korea. North Korea has always had one candidate, and that would be Kim Jong-un, who would likely get 100% of North Korean votes (17.5 million) plus additional votes from South Korea. The remaining South Korean votes would likely be split among multiple candidates, and voter participation would likely be less than 100%. During the last election Moon Jae-in received 41% of the votes, so assuming a strong candidate received 41% of South Korean votes, the result would be 14.35 million. Even without extra votes from South Korea, 17.5 million is greater than 14.35 million. This scenario shows how Kim Jong-un could gain power through such “democratic” election with all the legitimacy it confers

History helps explain what may happen after Kim gains power through such a “democratic” election, including his own power consolidation process, in which large numbers of elites were purged and the system of repression through fear and information control remains. Vietnam in 1975 is another case. The end state could be a unified Korea that is dominated by North Korea.

Conclusion

It is high time to start paying attention to the shifts ongoing in South Korea, because these changes could affect its very heart and soul. They already impact U.S. policy toward Korea and the region. The way that the Moon administration handled North Korea, including its participation in the Olympics, raised a lot of eyebrows in the international community as well as domestically, even earning the PyeonChang Olympics the title of Pyongyang Olympics. The Moon administration’s efforts to alter history and the constitution of South Korea change the narrative and the legal framework that impact the Republic of Korea’s identity as a liberal democracy and market economy. North Korea has always had the goal of unifying the entire peninsula under its rule, and its latest suggestion was through a low-level federation, which the Moon Jae-in government also calls for. If the Moon administration’s activities achieve their intended effect and South Korea turns away from liberal democracy and market economy toward socialism, decentralization, and a federation with North Korea, low level or not, it could result in a unified Korea under North Korea.