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30Th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan As at 31 December 2018 Was Prepared Pursuant to the Canada Pension Plan

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30Th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan As at 31 December 2018 Was Prepared Pursuant to the Canada Pension Plan Actuarial Report CANADA PENSION PLAN 30th as at 31 December 2018 27 November 2019 The Honourable William F. Morneau, P.C., M.P. Minister of Finance House of Commons Ottawa, Canada K1A 0A6 Dear Minister: In accordance with section 115 of the Canada Pension Plan, which provides that an actuarial report shall be prepared every three years for purposes of the financial state review by the Minister of Finance and the ministers of the Crown from the provinces, I am pleased to submit the Thirtieth Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan, prepared as at 31 December 2018. Yours sincerely, Assia Billig, FCIA, FSA, PhD Chief Actuary Actuarial Report th 30 CANADA PENSION PLAN as at 31 December 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 Main Findings ............................................................................................................ 7 1.2 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 8 1.3 Independent Peer Review Process .......................................................................... 9 1.4 Scope of the Report .................................................................................................. 9 1.5 Uncertainty of Results .............................................................................................. 9 1.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 12 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 14 3 Best-Estimate Assumptions .................................................................................................... 16 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Demographic Assumptions .................................................................................... 17 3.3 Economic and Investment Assumptions ............................................................... 20 3.4 Other Assumptions ................................................................................................. 24 4 Results – Base CPP .................................................................................................................. 26 4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 26 4.2 Contributions .......................................................................................................... 27 4.3 Expenditures ........................................................................................................... 28 4.4 Financial Projections with Legislated Contribution Rate ...................................... 34 4.5 Financial Projections with Minimum Contribution Rate ....................................... 40 5 Results – Additional CPP ......................................................................................................... 43 5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 43 5.2 Contributions .......................................................................................................... 44 5.3 Expenditures ........................................................................................................... 46 5.4 Financial Projections with Legislated Additional Contribution Rates .................. 51 5.5 Financial Projections with Additional Minimum Contribution Rates ................... 56 6 Reconciliation with Previous Triennial Report ...................................................................... 59 6.1 Base CPP .................................................................................................................. 59 6.2 Additional CPP ......................................................................................................... 62 7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 64 8 Actuarial Opinion .................................................................................................................... 66 Appendix A – Summary of Plan Provisions ......................................................................................... 67 Appendix B – Data, Assumptions, and Methodology ........................................................................ 83 Appendix C – Financing the Canada Pension Plan ...........................................................................167 Appendix D – Detailed Reconciliations with Previous Report .........................................................180 Appendix E – Uncertainty of Results ................................................................................................188 Appendix F – Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................215 2 Table of Contents Actuarial Report CANADA PENSION PLAN 30th as at 31 December 2018 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Best-Estimate Assumptions ............................................................................................ 17 Table 2 Population of Canada less Québec ................................................................................. 20 Table 3 Economic Assumptions ................................................................................................... 23 Table 4 Contributions - Base CPP ................................................................................................. 28 Table 5 Beneficiaries - Base CPP .................................................................................................. 29 Table 6 Beneficiaries by Sex - Base CPP....................................................................................... 30 Table 7 Expenditures - Base CPP.................................................................................................. 31 Table 8 Expenditures - Base CPP (2019 constant dollars) .......................................................... 32 Table 9 Expenditures as Percentage of Contributory Earnings - Base CPP ............................... 33 Table 10 Historical Results - Base CPP ........................................................................................... 35 Table 11 Financial Projections - Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution Rate .......................... 36 Table 12 Financial Projections – Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution Rate (2019 constant dollars) ............................................................................................................................. 37 Table 13 Sources of Revenues and Funding of Expenditures - Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution Rate ............................................................................................................ 39 Table 14 Financial Projections - Base CPP, Minimum Contribution Rate of 9.75% 2022-2033, 9.72% 2034+ ............................................................................................... 41 Table 15 Progression of Minimum Contribution Rate over Time – Base CPP ............................. 42 Table 16 Contributions - Additional CPP ....................................................................................... 45 Table 17 Beneficiaries - Additional CPP ......................................................................................... 47 Table 18 Beneficiaries by Sex – Additional CPP ............................................................................ 48 Table 19 Expenditures - Additional CPP ....................................................................................... 49 Table 20 Expenditures – Additional CPP (2019 constant dollars) ................................................ 50 Table 21 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, 2.0%, 8.0% Legislated First and Second Additional Contribution Rates ........................................................................................ 52 Table 22 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, 2.0%, 8.0% Legislated First and Second Additional Contribution Rates (2019 constant dollars) ................................................. 53 Table 23 Sources of Revenues - Additional CPP ............................................................................ 55 Table 24 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, First and Second Additional Minimum Contribution Rates of 1.98% / 7.92% ............................................................................. 57 Table 25 Progression of Additional Minimum Contribution Rates over Time............................. 58 Table 26 Change in Assets - 31 December 2015 to 31 December 2018 - Base CPP ................... 60 Table 27 Summary of Expenditures - 2016 to 2018 – Base CPP .................................................. 60 Table 28 Reconciliation of Changes in Minimum Contribution Rate ........................................... 61 Table 29 Reconciliation of Changes in Additional Minimum Contribution Rates ....................... 63 Table 30 Legislated Contribution Rates ......................................................................................... 70 Table 31 Projected Maximum Additional CPP Retirement Benefit .............................................
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