Somerset School Population Forecast - 2013

SOMERSET

SCHOOL POPULATION

FORECAST

2013

PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Performance Management & Information Team

February 2014

2 SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST - 2013

PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION As in previous years the School Population Forecast for 2013 is presented in two parts. This document provides a Commentary and Analysis of the number on roll trends. Detailed Forecast Data for each school and summary data appears in Part 2.

The forecast data has been calculated by Performance Management and Information Team using as the base data the actual number on roll data for October 2013 (supplied by schools as part of the Department for Education (DFE) School Census). For primary schools the forecasts are produced for the period up to 2018, at for middle schools the forecasts the period up to 2022, and at secondary level up to 2024.

The forecast data are available for use as a general resource by all schools, local authority staff, and those with a wider interest in school pupil numbers. The forecast totals for each school will appear as part of the Somerset School Organisation Plan which is a fundamental part of the LAs statutory responsibility for planning of school places.

Key Points: ►forecast data for Somerset are consistent with previous forecasts and national trends ►primary aged pupil numbers are forecast to continue increasing. An additional 2701 pupils are forecast to be on roll by 2018; ►the forecasts showing continued increases in primary school rolls in Bridgwater (+916 by 2018), Taunton (+511 by 2018) and Yeovil (+526 by 2018); ►the possibility of further increases in the primary school roll beyond 2018 if Somerset figures follow the national trend forecast by DFE; ►a stabilisation of the number of pupils aged 11-15 in 2015 and 2016, with increases beyond 2017 in some areas. This results in period of low pupil numbers in some secondary schools with significant growth elsewhere; ►a forecast rise in the total number of mainstream pupils each year.

1. COUNTY LEVEL TRENDS 1.1 Calculation of County Forecasts: 1.1.1 In line with established practice the forecasts at County level have been calculated separately rather than by aggregation of the individual school forecasts. This provides a means of validating the school forecasts to avoid serious over/under-estimating (see Part 2, page 5).

1.2 Pupils aged 4-10 (including pupils of that age in middle schools): 1.2.1 The roll of primary aged pupils has been increasing since 2010 and, as has been forecast previously, that trend is now set to continue with a forecast rise of 611 from October 2013 to October 2014. Of more significance is the rise of 2701 (7.0%) from 2013 to 2018. Of the overall forecast increase approximately

3 68% is the result of recent changes in the birth rate, with the remaining 32% attributable to the forecast gains from net migration. The rise in pupil numbers in the primary age range is not confined to Somerset: it is a national trend which is explored further in paragraph 1.6.

1.2.2 The number of pupils entering primary school at reception has been increasing quite noticeably since 2007, leading to a large increase in the number of pupils at key stage 1. With the number of pupils entering at reception forecast to remain at a high level for the rest of the forecast period and the larger year groups moving into key stage 2, there is a forecast increase across the primary sector. Up to 2011 the increase at KS1 coincided with a period of falling numbers at KS2, however, as is shown in Table A the challenge from 2013 to 2018 is the need to accommodate an increasing number of pupils at both KS1 and KS2, with the most significant increases now at KS2.

Table A: Change in KS1 and KS2 pupils 2000 - 2018 KS1 Pupils KS2 Pupils Total Difference Difference Difference 2000 (A) 16710 23668 40378 -811 -2786 -3597 2009 (A) 15899 20882 36781 +1132 +776 +1908 2013 (A) 17031 21658 38689 +660 +2041 +2701 2018 (F) 17691 23699 41390

Table B: Change in secondary aged pupils 2003 - 2022 Pupils Pupils aged Total aged aged 11-15 Difference 16+ Difference 11+ Difference 2003 (A) 29363 1702 31065 -3975 +437 -3538 2013 (A) 25388 2139 27527 -393 -11 -404 2016 (F) 24995 2128 27123 +2963 +23 +2986 2022 (F) 27958 2151 30109 Table A & B Notes: (a) Pupils attending the Steiner Academy Frome are included in the actual data for 2013 and the forecast data. It does not feature in the actual data prior to 2012 since it did not exist at that time. (b) The differences shown in the above table are from the previous point (eg 2013 to 2018). (c) A = Actual; F = Forecast

1.2.3 As well as the strategic need to ensure that there are sufficient school places available in each area, whilst maintaining the legal class size limit at KS1, there are less obvious consequences of a rising school roll. For example, there will be increases in the number of first admissions to be processed each year, as well as likely increases in number of parents going to appeal and in pupils accessing support services such as SEN or school transport.

1.3 Pupils aged 11-15 (including pupils of that age in middle schools): 1.3.1 From a peak in 2003 there has been a decline in the number of secondary aged pupils as smaller year groups work their way from the primary to the secondary sector. The fall in numbers is set to bottom out in 2015 and 2016 with a period

4 of increase forecast from 2017. As Table B shows from the peak of 11-15 secondary pupils in 2003, to the bottom of the curve in 2016, there is a forecast fall of 4368 pupils. By 2016 the number of pupils aged 11-15 is forecast to be 393 below the 2013 roll, but the there is then a forecast increase of 2963 by 2022. This will put the roll 2570 above the 2013 roll but still 1405 below the 2003 level.

1.4 Pupils aged 16+: 1.4.1 Following the commissioning of new 6th from provision in recent years, the number of 16+ pupils now forms about 3% of the total school roll. As Table B shows the number of pupils aged 16+ has increased by 437 from 2003 to 2013. The forecast number of pupils in school 6th forms varies slightly with the size of the year groups reaching year 11, although there are no dramatic changes forecast changes in 16+ pupil numbers, with a forecast total of just over of 2000 pupils in most years. These age groups are traditionally more complex to forecast (due to the range of options open to pupils at the end of year 11) so there is a greater margin of error in these forecasts than for the other secondary school age groups. 1.4.2 The Education and Skills Act 2008 increased the minimum age at which young people in England can leave learning to 17 from 2013 and to 18 from 2015. With the majority of post-16 provision in Somerset in the further education sector (there are generally around 3 times as many students in further education colleges compared to 16+ school pupils) any change in the number of post-16 learners is likely to have more of an impact on the college sector than on school rolls. No speculative adjustment has been made to the forecasts to take account of this legislative change – the forecasts will reflect any trends when they emerge or if specific new provision is confirmed.

1.5 Total Mainstream Roll (Pupils aged 4-17): 1.5.1 With the fall in secondary numbers reaching an end, and primary numbers on a clear upward trend, the forecast shows that the total number of mainstream pupils is forecast to increase each year. In 2014 the forecast roll is 406 pupils higher than the 2013 total – an increase of 0.61%. For the rest of the forecast period until 2018 there is a forecast increase of 3144 - an increase of 4.7%, averaging 629 pupils per year.

1.6 The National Context: 1.6.1 As the accompanying graph (Appendix 1) shows pupil numbers in Somerset generally follow the trend for schools in England as a whole, both in terms of actual numbers and in the forecast trend. The graph clearly demonstrates that the forecast increase in pupil numbers in Somerset is by no means an exceptional rate of increase when compared to the DFE national trends*1. 1.6.2 The DFE national pupil projections for primary school pupil up to 2022 are based on a forecast of births, whereas the forecasts for Somerset are largely based on the data available for the living population. If the DFE forecast trend is replicated locally, there will be further significant increases in the Somerset primary age pupil roll in the period beyond 2018. The forecast total for 2017 in Somerset is slightly above the peak in the last cycle of school population when the number of primary aged pupils reached 40835 in 1998/99. Even allowing for a margin of error there is a clear upward trend at national level which suggests that the 1998/99 peak will be exceeded and giving a total primary roll

5 that would be larger than at any time since the 1974 re-organisation of local government boundaries. 1.6.3 The increase in primary aged pupil numbers is inevitably followed by an increase in numbers in the secondary sector. The Somerset forecasts and the national pupil projections show that the increase in secondary age pupil numbers begins in the second half of this decade. Furthermore, if pupil numbers in Somerset primary schools follow the DFE national pupil projections then there will also be a significant period of increase in secondary school rolls beyond 2024. The forecasts show that by 2022 the number of secondary age pupils in Somerset will still be below the 2003/04 peak although it will be on a clear upward trajectory.

2 SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: PRIMARY SCHOOLS 2.1 The supporting summary table (Appendix 2) gives a breakdown of actual and forecast totals by primary school area. Whilst there is modest growth forecast in many areas it can be seen that Bridgwater, Taunton, and Yeovil are forecast to see the most significant increases. Over the course of the forecast period a total of 35 existing primary schools are forecast to increase in roll by 30 or more pupils, these are located in the town areas (including some of the smaller towns) and on the fringe of larger areas. A list of these schools is shown in Appendix 3, although it should be remembered that where there is an area response to the forecast increase in pupil numbers, this may invalidate the forecast data for an individual school. The list includes schools where additional places have already been provided or are in the planning. Forecasts for all individual schools are contained in School Population Forecast Part 2.

2.2 The areas with the most significant forecast growth in numbers are examined in more detail below. However, it should be remembered that even within these areas, some of the schools in outlying rural areas are not forecast to see any significant increase in pupil numbers. (Unless otherwise stated all figures quoted below are calculated using the October 2013 actual as the base figure with forecast increases/decreases in number on roll totals to the corresponding Census in October 2014, or 2017 etc ).

Bridgwater: Since 2011 there has been an exceptionally large increase in the number of pupils in Bridgwater – the 2013 roll being 563 higher than 2011. The increase includes particularly large gains from net migration. With large housing developments continuing on the edge of the town there is a forecast high level of migration included in the forecasts. This combines with a high number of pupils forecast for the reception year to create forecast totals which are increasing each year. It is forecast that the 2014 roll will be 205 higher than the 2013 roll, and the 2018 roll will be 916 higher than in 2013. A new primary school (Willowdown Primary Academy) is planned to open in September 2014 to serve the north-east Bridgwater development. Of particular significance is the forecast number of first admissions in the Bridgwater area which for September 2014 is 887, (40 higher than in 2013) with further large reception groups to come in 2015 (896) and 2017 (921) in particular.

Burnham-on-Sea: There is a forecast increase in pupil numbers which is focused mainly on the urban area of Burnham-on-Sea/Highbridge. Churchfield Primary school forecast to see an increase of 74 pupils by 2018.

6 Chard: The forecasts show a rise of 164 pupils in this area by 2018. As in other areas most of this increase is in the Chard town area where pupil numbers are forecast to increase by 141 pupils by 2018.

Frome: Numbers in this area are forecast to increase by 98 by 2018. This growth includes the expansion of the Steiner Academy which opened as a free school in September 2012, and is due to relocate to the premises within the town and expand the number of places it offers. The impact on the roll of other schools of the availability of this additional provision within the town, will emerge in the next few years. This may mean that future forecasts may reflect a slightly different trend. The current forecasts show an increase at Christchurch and Hayesdown schools.

Taunton: Numbers are forecast to increase by 134 in 2014 and by 511 by 2018. Whilst some of this is the expected gain of pupils from new housing which is now beginning to come forward in the Taunton area, the most significant reason behind the increase is the consistently large year groups which are forecast to enter the reception year for the duration of the forecast period replacing relatively smaller year groups that are leaving year 6. Across the whole of the Taunton area there were 880 reception pupils in 2013, the forecast reception year group is above 900 for most of the forecast period. With new housing taking place there is a forecast growth in numbers at Norton Fitzwarren and at West Monkton.

Wellington: An increase of 134 pupils is forecast for this area by 2018, again most of this is forecast for the schools in the town area whilst the village schools are forecast to see little change in roll. This growth reflects changes in the difference in the size of year groups moving through the schools and forecast migration from planned housing developments which are now becoming a reality.

Wincanton: The 2013 roll was above that which was forecast and provides a higher base roll for the forecasts. The forecast totals show an increase of 41 pupils in 2014 and 143 by 2018. The forecast increase is showing at the schools in Wincanton itself (Wincanton Primary and Our Lady’s Primary) as well as St Nicholas Henstridge.

Yeovil: There is a forecast increase of 106 pupils by 2014, and an increase of 526 pupils for the primary schools in this area by 2018. Again the increase results mainly from a higher birth rate in recent years. The 2013 reception year for this area was 580, which compares with the forecast number for 2014 onwards which are all over 600. The reception year forecast for 2017 is over 700. Whilst there is some forecast impact from current housing developments in Yeovil, there are further sites which do not yet fully feature in the forecast calculations. This area of Somerset traditionally sees less of an immediate impact by way of net migration when compared to other parts of the County (although there may be a local and/or longer term increases in pupil numbers). If gains from the new housing bucks the recent local trend (eg in the way that numbers have increased in Bridgwater) it is possible that there could be a more significant impact than the forecasts show.

7 2.3 Small Primary Schools: As an authority which serves a large rural area, Somerset traditionally has a much higher proportion of small schools when compared to the England average. The forecasts do not show any significant changes to this pattern: there are some small schools which are forecast to fall slightly and others where a modest increase is forecast. From a point of view of the forecast data, it is important to remember that for a small school a relatively slight change in pupil numbers (either an increase or a decrease) can be quite significant in terms of the total roll.

3. SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: SECONDARY AND MIDDLE SCHOOLS 3.1 The trend of falling pupil numbers in the secondary sector is coming now reaching an end. This is reflected in the forecasts for individual middle and secondary schools where whilst 19 schools are forecast to fall in 2013 and an equal number are forecast to increase.

3.2 Middle Schools: With middle schools catering for pupils from years 5 to 8 they are forecast to show an up-turn in roll before the secondary schools, as larger year groups work through from the first schools sooner than they do for schools which cater for pupils from year 7. The general trend in middle schools is for a forecast increase in roll each year. Although with middle schools serving mainly rural parts of the County the forecast increase in numbers tends to be steady rather than dramatic.

3.3 Secondary Schools: 3.3.1 Whilst a number of the 11-16/18 and 13-18 schools are forecast to see some fall in pupil numbers over the period 2013 to 2017, for others numbers are already beginning to increase. In the predominantly rural areas where there has been little increase in primary school rolls, there is a corresponding slow recovery in the secondary school forecast roll, however where there is a larger concentration of urban area in the catchment there is a more noticeable increase. 3.3.2 In 2013 there are 5 secondary schools with less than 600 pupils on roll (Brymore, King Arthurs, St Dunstans, Sexeys and Whitstone). In addition, Wadham School is forecast to fall below 600 in 2014 and remain below that mark for the rest of the forecast period. Brymore is forecast to see some increase in its roll as it changes it admission arrangements to take pupils from year 7. The full impact of this change will emerge over the next few years, although this is still forecast to remain a small secondary school. Apart from Brymore, these schools serve areas which have seen little increase in primary school numbers and whilst some are forecast to see a modest rise in the number of secondary aged pupils towards the end of the forecast period, there is no major up-turn in numbers forecast. 3.3.3 In contrast, in the areas that have seen more significant increases in the primary aged roll (Bridgwater, Taunton and Yeovil), the increased numbers feed through into the secondary sector more quickly. These are areas with an effective choice of secondary school where detailed forecast data is only published for 5 years (since it is considered that there is too large a margin for error beyond that time to produce school level forecasts with confidence). However, the summary forecasts for each of these areas show the total need for places required over the next 11 years. Whilst there are signs of an

8 increase by 2017 the more dramatic increases both in total roll and in the number of year 7 admissions are in the medium to long-term. A summary of the change in numbers for these areas is shown in Tables C and D.

Table C: Forecast change in secondary aged pupils 2013 - 2024

Increase/ Increase/ Page Decrease Decrease No. * 2013 (A) 2017 (F) from 2013 2024 (F) from 2013 Bridgwater Area (excluding Brymore) 3281 3458 +177 4421 +1140 9 Taunton Area 4014 4102 +88 4665 +651 69 Yeovil Area 2601 2566 -35 3080 +479 103

Table D: Forecast change in number of year 7 admissions 2013 - 2024

Increase/ Increase/ Decrease Decrease 2013 (A) 2017 (F) from 2013 2024 (F) from 2013 Bridgwater Area (excluding Brymore) 610 740 +130 911 +301 Taunton Area 759 828 +69 886 +127 Yeovil Area 472 564 +92 701 +229 A = Actual; F = Forecast

4. THE GENERAL CONTEXT OF THE FORECAST DATA 4.1 Migration & Housing Growth: 4.1.1 Migration is a two-way process with pupils moving on and off of a school roll for a variety of reasons. At County level, net gains from migration are not significant enough to change the overall trend which results from the increase/decrease in the birth rate. The County level forecasts include an allowance for net migration to reflect such factors as moves into/out of Somerset, options to/from independent school/special schools, parents opting to home educate etc. The actual level of migration tends to show some fluctuation from one year to another, although despite the slump in the housing market in the last few years the net gain of pupils from migration has remained within the range generally seen in Somerset. 4.1.2 However, at a local level migration can be particularly significant either gains/losses from one-off events, and migration which occurs each year from the routine turn-over of pupils. Where significant developments of family housing takes place it is reasonable to expect that there will be some gains of new pupils. However, the full effect of that housing may not be immediate eg there may be a lag of a few years if a development attracts a high proportion of families with pre-school age children or young couples without children. It’s also important to remember that whilst there may be moves of children into new housing developments these may not all be ‘new’ pupils, since some will be existing pupils re-locating into the housing. 4.1.3 By its very nature the local planning process is a consultative one which identifies sites for potential housing developments – not all of which will ultimately proceed, and may not come forward as soon as expected. It is not therefore possible to include the impact of such sites in the detailed school

9 forecasts until development is confirmed. The schools forecasts of migration include a contribution to reflect the major housing developments where planning approval has been granted and where development is reasonably certain.

4.2 School Net Capacity: 4.2.1 Each school has a measure of its net capacity based on the buildings it has at its disposal - from the net capacity the school’s IAN (Indicated Admission Number) is calculated. Changes to the fabric and use of school buildings means that the net capacity figure is subject to periodic recalculation. Where a school attracts a significant number of pupils from outside of its area, the forecast admissions are generally calculated bearing mind the capacity limits of the school.

4.3 Possible variations: 4.3.1 No forecast will ever be completely accurate: they all have a margin for error, which increases the further ahead that the forecast extends. In addition, there are factors the impact of which cannot be included in the forecasts, since they are either currently unknown or unquantifiable; for example: - Re-organisation of educational provision in an area - Significant changes in parental preference - Changes to availability of school transport - Alterations to a school’s admission criteria/net capacity/IAN which can have knock-on effects for other local schools. - Changes resulting from government initiatives – eg new free schools, additional 16+ provision, revisions to the admissions code. - The impact of the building of Hinkley Point C. - New housing developments being given planning permission.

5. FURTHER INFORMATION 5.1 Actual and Forecast Number on Roll Data: 5.1.1 The forecast and actual number on roll data are available from the links below: School Population Forecast 2013: Part 2 Forecast Data for all primary, middle and secondary schools (iPostID:2965). October 2013 Number on Roll data for each Somerset school at October 2013 School Census (iPostID:2772 & iPostID:2773).

5.2 School Organisation Plan: 5.2.1 The 2013 forecasts of pupil numbers will feature in the annual Somerset School Organisation Plan which is due to be updated to provide the latest data on population forecasts and school net capacities.

5.3 Background Information: 5.3.1 The following document was used as source material in writing this commentary, and may provide further related information of interest.

10 *1 National Pupil Projections: Future Trends in Pupil Numbers - December 2013 (DFE SFR53/2013) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-pupil-projections- future-trends-in-pupil-numbers-december-2013

5.3.2 Full supporting papers and source data are available on request.

TONY VERRIER Information Officer Performance Management & Information Team Business Development Somerset County Council County Hall, Taunton Somerset, TA1 4DY

Tel: 01823 355961 Fax: 01823 355332 email: [email protected] team e-mail [email protected]

PMIT_ACV/SchPop_forecast_Pt1_2013.doc 11 Feb 2014

11 Appendix 1: Comparison of pupil numbers in primary and secondary education: Somerset and England

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 Pupils (Millions/10000s)

3.0

2.5

2.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary schools - England (millions)

Secondary schools - England (millions) Year (as at January)

Primary pupils - Somerset (10000s)

Secondary pupils - Somerset (10000s)

Notes/Source: England data 1. DFE Projections use the mid-2011 based interim sub-national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. 2. England data relates to state-funded schools only (eg maintained primary/secondary schools, academies,free schools, CTCs etc. Source: England data 1970-2013 (actual) - 2014-2022 (projection) - DFE SFR53/2013

Notes/Source: Somerset data 1. Somerset data relates to pupils by age in primary, middle and secondary schools only. 2. Pupils in school 6th forms and nursery classes are excluded from the above figures. Source: Somerset data 1976-2014 (actual based on previous Sept/Oct pupil count) 2015 onwards (forecast) - PMIT PMIT_ACV/SFR53_2013_Figure(2) Feb-14

12 Appendix 2: Somerset Primary School Population - Actual & Forecast

Increase/ Increase/ Decrease Decrease Forecast Base Year: 2013 2013 2013 Area Actual Forecast to to Year: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2018 ANSFORD 861 880 887 888 878 854 876 847 819 803 -24 -75 BRIDGWATER 4614 4715 4779 5077 5342 5547 5762 5952 6137 6258 205 916 BURNHAM-ON-SEA 1637 1628 1682 1685 1712 1712 1724 1737 1784 1790 0 78 CHARD 1449 1496 1473 1491 1560 1621 1644 1664 1691 1724 61 164 CHEDDAR 593 577 575 555 536 537 544 543 537 537 1 1 BLACKFORD 653 632 641 641 670 662 661 639 630 622 -8 -48 ILMINSTER 373 372 394 399 416 407 438 435 430 423 -9 7 CREWKERNE 588 592 574 575 548 543 565 559 561 567 -5 19 FROME 1970 1981 1995 2137 2181 2233 2283 2287 2273 2279 52 98 GLASTONBURY 892 906 866 887 886 898 896 894 890 899 12 13 HUISH EPISCOPI 1343 1358 1364 1338 1363 1355 1342 1301 1304 1289 -8 -74 NORTH MENDIP 490 496 508 482 483 481 476 474 483 475 -2 -8 SHEPTON MALLET 1062 1050 1049 1080 1137 1147 1180 1211 1221 1243 10 106 STOKE-SUB-HAMDON 1530 1489 1502 1506 1507 1504 1510 1510 1548 1551 -3 44 STREET 1437 1412 1373 1432 1415 1439 1419 1399 1385 1383 24 -32 TAUNTON 5494 5547 5628 5714 5843 5977 6120 6242 6291 6354 134 511 WELLINGTON 1108 1088 1112 1131 1162 1180 1178 1241 1270 1296 18 134 WELLS 1438 1445 1448 1488 1494 1501 1500 1479 1456 1461 7 -33 DULVERTON 93 103 125 139 151 150 141 142 140 130 -1 -21 MINEHEAD 695 683 657 659 680 690 702 736 758 754 10 74 WILLITON 381 394 393 388 421 428 436 456 462 461 7 40 WINCANTON 1114 1104 1127 1134 1191 1232 1261 1281 1314 1334 41 143 WIVELISCOMBE 1145 1189 1225 1242 1239 1243 1235 1219 1164 1149 4 -90 YEOVIL 3677 3696 3744 3850 3919 4025 4124 4229 4367 4445 106 526 TOTAL 34637 34833 35121 35918 36734 37366 38017 38477 38915 39225 632 2491

NB The above data relates to pupils in primary schools only. KS2 pupil in middle schools are not included.

PMIT_ACV/2013_Primary_Forecast_Calcs.xls Jan-14

13 Appendix 3: Primary School Forecast Summary Data Schools forecast to grow by 30 or more pupils between 2013 and 2018 Year in which total roll is forecast to increase above 2013 roll by 30 Base Yr 2013 Actual Forecast pupils SCHOOL NO/NAME 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 54 BRIDGWATER WESTOVER GREEN PRIMARY 382 393 410 422 424 428 2016 55 BRIDGWATER HAMP INFANTS 240 263 261 280 289 293 2016 56 BRIDGWATER HAMP JUNIOR 231 239 276 299 329 353 2015 62 BRIDGWATER ST MARY'S PRIMARY 337 355 375 397 412 424 2015 87 CHARD AVISHAYES PRIMARY 233 248 255 260 272 290 2017 91 CHARD MANOR COURT PRIMARY 319 349 362 371 388 401 2014 122 CREWKERNE ASHLANDS FIRST 101 111 127 130 147 147 2017 164 GLASTONBURY ST BENEDICT'S JUNIOR 215 211 222 239 252 267 2017 180 HIGHBRIDGE CHURCHFIELD CHURCH PRIMARY 416 422 431 446 474 490 2016 194 ILCHESTER PRIMARY 274 278 303 311 329 332 2016 236 MINEHEAD FIRST 274 271 290 300 326 321 2017 251 NORTH PETHERTON PRIMARY 361 386 397 408 418 422 2015 252 NORTON FITZWARREN PRIMARY 87 106 123 144 153 164 2015 298 SHEPTON MALLET INFANTS 113 122 129 152 160 159 2016 299 SHEPTON MALLET ST PAUL'S JUNIOR 286 283 304 303 309 323 2018 302 SOMERSET BRIDGE PRIMARY 354 381 407 418 447 459 2015 329 STREET HINDHAYES INFANTS 198 219 216 238 212 209 2016 337 TAUNTON HOLWAY PARK PRIMARY 303 317 335 353 356 367 2015 339 TAUNTON LYNGFORD PARK PRIMARY 270 274 292 305 305 307 2016 347 TAUNTON PRIORSWOOD PRIMARY 165 178 190 200 209 205 2016 349 TAUNTON ST JAMES CHURCH SCHOOL 261 279 296 312 329 336 2015 355 TAUNTON HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY 307 320 336 358 374 394 2016 357 TAUNTON WELLSPRINGS PRIMARY 224 230 266 273 283 286 2015 390 WELLINGTON BEECH GROVE PRIMARY 302 304 308 329 339 344 2017 403 WEMBDON ST GEORGE'S PRIMARY 354 367 383 402 415 418 2016 411 WEST MONKTON PRIMARY 218 235 249 262 280 298 2015 418 WINCANTON PRIMARY 287 308 319 334 358 374 2015 432 YEOVIL BIRCHFIELD PRIMARY 381 406 432 448 467 479 2015 434 YEOVIL ST MICHAELS ACADEMY 218 218 247 251 276 298 2016 435 YEOVIL HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY 354 383 402 420 429 436 2015 440 YEOVIL OAKLANDS PRIMARY 410 414 415 417 440 449 2017 442 YEOVIL PEN MILL INFANTS 171 182 173 184 202 205 2017 443 YEOVIL PRESTON PRIMARY 425 429 432 437 470 481 2017 445 YEOVIL RECKLEFORD INFANTS 75 84 92 106 116 120 2016 501P BRIDGWATER COLLEGE ACADEMY (Years R-6) 564 544 546 558 589 621 2018

Growing Schools not included above: 63 NEW SCHOOL TO OPEN IN N.E. BRIDGWATER 0 129 211 279 351 399 399 FS01P STEINER ACADEMY FROME 160 188 204 220 235 246 86

The above list shows those primary schools forecast to see an increase of 30 or more pupils from the 2013 October Actual (forecast data based on 2013 School Population Forecast). NB: If additional places are provided elsewhere the forecast growth of these schools may not materialise to this timescale.

PMIT_ACV/2013 Growing Schools.xlsx 14 04-Feb-14