How to Repair the American Mind Guy P

Vol. 45 No. 3 | May/June 2021

How to Repair the American Mind Guy P. Harrison

Life, the Quniverse, and Everything Part 2 Down with Science—but Why? Bias in Alt-Med Research Aromatherapy

$5.99 CAN/US Creationist Funhouse: God the Biotechnologist

Book Review Issue: The Biggest Bluff, Republic of Lies, Havana Syndrome, Skeptics Guide to Sports Science, They Are Already Here Committee for Skeptical Inquiry | www.skepticalinquirer.org

Robyn E. Blumner,* President and CEO Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Barry Karr,* Executive Director Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

Fellows

James E. Alcock*, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto Krista Federspiel, medical journalist, author, Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of CA, County Marcia Angell MD, former editor-in-chief, folklorist Berkeley Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, New England Journal of Medicine Kevin Folta, molecular biologist. Professor and Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Univ. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Kimball Atwood IV MD, physician, author, Newton, chairman of the Horticultural Sciences Department of CA, Irvine Amardeo Sarma*, chairman, GWUP, Germany MA at the University of Florida William M. London, professor of public health, Richard Saunders, Life Member of Australian Banachek, professional magician/mentalist magic Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, California State University, Los Angeles Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; consultant/producer SE Louisiana Univ. Daniel Loxton, writer, artist, editor, Skeptic Sydney, Australia

Stephen Barrett MD, psychiatrist, author, consumer Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, U. of San Francisco magazine Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science advocate, Pittsboro, NC Kendrick Frazier*, science writer, editor, SKEPTICAL Michael E. Mann, distinguished Professor of and Society Robert Bartholomew, sociologist and investigative INQUIRER Atmospheric Sciences and director of the Earth Eugenie C. Scott*, physical anthropologist, former journalist, Botany College in Auckland, Christopher C. French, professor, department of Systems Sciences Center at the Pennsylvania State executive director (retired), National Center for New Zealand. psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Psychology University Science Education Jann Johnson Bellamy, attorney, writer for Science- Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London David Marks, psychologist, City Univ., London Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Based Medicine blog, Tallahassee, FL Julia Galef, writer, podcaster, public speaker Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and science Mountain View, CA Kenny Biddle, investigator, writer, podcaster, public Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia writer, Mexico City Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK speaker (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Southern group David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames N.S.W., Australia CA Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Research Center Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of professor of human development and applied Times science correspondent Susan Gerbic, founder and leader of the Guerrilla CA, Berkeley psychology, Univ. of Toronto Susan Blackmore, visiting lecturer, Univ. of the West Skepticism on Wikipedia (GSoW) project Joe Nickell, senior research fellow, CSI Karen Stollznow, linguist; skeptical investigator; of England, Bristol Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, The writer; podcaster Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and researcher at Netherlands Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, Laboratories (retired), Albuquerque, New Mexico Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute and chief Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College Mountain View, CA Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France of breast surgery section, Wayne State University Matthew C. Nisbet, professor of communication, Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Angeles, Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor emeritus School of Medicine public policy, and public affairs, Northeastern CA of English, Univ. of Utah Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first University, Boston David E. Thomas, physicist and mathematician, Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice editor, The Skeptic magazine (UK) Steven Novella MD, assistant professor of Socorro, NM president for science education, Howard Hughes Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, Medical Institute, Madison, WI Sciences, professor of philosophy and professor of Bill Nye, science educator and television host, Hayden Planetarium, New York City Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and Law, Univ. of Miami Nye Labs James Underdown, writer, investigator, founder chair, Recycled Energy Development, Westmont, IL Harriet Hall MD, family physician, investigator, James E. Oberg, science writer of Center for Inquiry Investigations Group (CFIIG), Timothy Caulfield, professor of health law and Puyallup, WA Paul Offit, physician, author, researcher, professor, Los Angeles policy, University of Alberta, Canada David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Columbia Univ. of Pennsylvania Joseph Uscinski, political scientist, University K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, Univ. Univ. Naomi Oreskes, geologist, science historian, of Miami of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., professor, Harvard University Bertha Vazquez, science teacher, director of the Journalism Pleasantville, NY Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health Teacher Institute for Evolutionary Science (TIES) John Cook, Center for Climate Change Douglas R. Hofstadter, professor of human Sciences Univ. Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and Communication, George Mason University, Virginia understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of podcast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Observatory, Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine contributing professor emeritus of English, Univ. of CA, Berkeley and professor of history of science, Harvard Univ. Williams College editor Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Deborah Hyde, folklorist, cultural anthropologist, Natalia Pasternak, microbiologist, writer, president, Stuart Vyse*, psychologist, professor, author Geoffrey Dean, technical editor, Perth, Australia and former editor in chief of the UK-based Instituto Questão de Ciência, São Paulo, Brazil Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Cornelis de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. magazine The Skeptic John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel laureate of Utrecht, the Netherlands Ray Hyman*, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, author, editor, IBM Mick West, writer, podcaster, investigator, debunker, Daniel C. Dennett, Univ. professor and Austin B. Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, T.J. Watson Research Center Folsom, CA Fletcher Professor of Philosophy, director of science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, City E.O. Wilson, Univ. professor emeritus, organismic Center for Cognitive Studies at Tufts Univ. Policy, Washington, D.C. Univ. of New York–Lehman College and evolutionary biology, Harvard Univ. Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, Harvard Univ. Richard Wiseman, psychologist, Univ. of Studios, Ithaca, NY Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, executive Hertfordshire, England Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith director of CICAP, Italy Benjamin Wolozin, professor, department of Association and Rationalist International Observatory, Los Angeles, CA James L Powell, geochemist, author, executive pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Lawrence Kusche, science writer director, National Physical Science Consortium Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, researcher, Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, and Plymouth, Exeter, UK Univ. of Bristol, United Kingdom Univ. of California, Santa Cruz Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Technology Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist, geologist, *Member, CSI Executive Council Central Connecticut State Univ. Daily (China) author, National History Museum of Los Angeles (Affiliations given for identification only.)

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical be sent to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, email: kend- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, P. O . Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703 or call Inquiry, P. O . Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226. Printed in U.S.A. Periodicals [email protected]. Mail: 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque, NM toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside the U.S. call 716-636-1425). Old postage paid at Buffalo, NY, and at additional mailing offices. 87122. Please consult our Guide for Authors for style, reference, and address as well as new are necessary for change of address, with Subscription prices: one year (six issues), $35; two years, $60; three submittal instructions. It is on our website at www.skepticalinquirer.org/ ten weeks advance notice. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subscribers may not years, $84; single issue, $5.99. Canadian and foreign orders: Payment article-submission-guidelines/. speak on behalf of CSI or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKEPTICAL Postmaster: Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, P. O . Box add US$10 per year for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are INQUIRER represent the views and work of individual authors. Their 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. encouraged to use Visa or Master Card. publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by CSI or Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the its members unless so stated. Committee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, CSI, P. O . Copyright ©2021 by the Center for Inquiry and the Committee for A PROGRAM OF Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.:716-636-1425. Fax: 716-636- Skeptical Inquiry. All rights reserved. 1733. Email: [email protected]. Skep ti cal In quir er May/June 2021 | Volume 45 No. 3

FEATURES COLUMNS 31 FROM THE EDITOR Science, Values, and Muddled Thinking .....4 How to Repair the American Mind: Solving America’ s Cognitive Crisis NEWS AND COMMENT Making Conspiracy Theories Cost: When GUY P. HARRISON Consequences Follow / Skeptical Inquirer Presents Series a Big Success; Fill CSICon 35 Gap / $250,000 Remains Unclaimed: CFI Investigators Recount a Year of Applicants Life, the Quniverse, and Everything, / Phosphine Detected on Venus? We Part 2: QManTrafficking and the Still Don’t Know/ Physicist C.S. Wu ‘Plandemic’ Honored with U.S. Postage Stamp / Randi QAnon propagates misinformation and conspiracy Remembrance / In Memoriam: Chris Fix, theories about the pandemic and human Our Former Art Director / CSICon 2021 trafficking and provokes and glorifies violence. It is Canceled, CSICon 2022 to Be Best Yet ....5 dangerous and must not be casually dismissed. INVESTIGATIVE FILES STEPHANIE KEMMERER The Wyoming Death Ship: Truth Be Told JOE NICKELL ...... 13 40 NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD Down with Science—but Why? What Would Randi Do? Public disbelief in science manifests itself broadly. MASSIMO POLIDORO ...... 16 The underlying reasons are manifold. REALITY IS THE BEST MEDICINE PETER LANTOS Does Public Water Fluoridation Make Children Less Intelligent? HARRIET HALL ...... 18 43 BEHAVIOR & BELIEF Aromatherapy: ‘Healing’ by the When QAnon Prophecy Fails Scents of Smell STUART VYSE ...... 21 Aromatherapy is just another New Age pseudoscience that doesn’t pass the smell test. SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BMI and the Argument from Antiquity JOE NICKELL BENJAMIN RADFORD ...... 26

45 NEW AND NOTABLE ...... 62 Creationist Funhouse, Episode Six: LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR...... 62 God the Biotechnologist STANLEY RICE What’s Going On with the Country? 48 COMMENTARY PETER HUSTON...... 57 Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy The- A Longitudinal Study of ‘Ideological’ 28 orists and Their Surprising Rise to Power Bias in Research of ‘Alternative Roots of January 6 Anti-Democracy by Anna Merlan Medicine’ Riot Sown Years Ago A comparison of the published conclusions of DAVID HAHN A Skeptical Take on ‘Havana one acupuncture researcher during two different Syndrome’ ten-year periods—the first carefully supervised and REVIEWS BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 59 the second not—shows that positive conclusions Havana Syndrome: Mass Sociogenic Illness came only in the second situation. This seems a Luck, Life, and Poker frequent phenomenon in SCAM research. and the Real Story behind the Embassy ARTHUR S. REBER...... 54 Mystery and Hysteria EDZARD ERNST The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay by Robert W. Baloh and Robert E. Attention, Master Myself, and Win Bartholomew by Maria Konnikova FOLLOW-UP UFO Believers: A Sympathetic Look Critical Thinking about Sports at Tangled Connections 51 HARRIET HALL...... 55 TERENCE HINES...... 60 Less Than Nobel The Skeptic’s Guide to Sports Science: Confront- They Are Already Here: UFO Culture and ing Myths of the Health and Fitness Industry Why We See Saucers IAN BRYCE by Nicholas Tiller by Sarah Scoles Committee for Skeptical Inquiry “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG AZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Science, Values, and Muddled Thinking ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er DEPUTY ED ITOR Ben ja min Rad ford ur three lead articles continue examining our current crisis in America. MAN A GING ED I TOR Julia Lavarnway Evident throughout the tumultuous year of 2020 and early 2021, from ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott our skeptics’ viewpoint we see far too many people unable (or unwill- ART DIRECTOR Alexander Nicaise ing) to separate fantasy from reality, see through obvious conspiracy theories, WEBMASTER Marc Kreidler O PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr and make decisions based on evidence rather than emotion. ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Robyn E. Blumner, In our cover article “How to Repair the American Mind,” Guy P. Harrison Harriet Hall, Ray Hy man, Barry Karr, Elizabeth Loftus, offers his lessons from “such an extraordinarily eventful year” in which “irrational Joe Nickell, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Stuart Vyse beliefs have reached crisis levels in America.” The common thread he sees is lack CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Harriet Hall, David Morrison, Joe of critical thinking. “The reason our problem of mass delusions and rampant Nickell, Matthew C. Nisbet, Massimo Polidoro, David E. Thomas, Stuart Vyse, Mick West, Rich ard Wis e man disinformation can exist to the degree it currently does is because too many American minds are incapable of handling close encounters of the irrational Published in association with kind,” he says, noting that the key problem is too many people are believers rather than thinkers. He urges we focus not on the few who sell lies and fantasies but “the many who eagerly buy them.” Harrison, who has written thoughtful books CHAIR Edward Tabash on this very subject, notes that critical thinking can be taught and argues it should PRESIDENT AND CEO Robyn E. Blumner be taught in our schools at all levels. He emphasizes that critical thinking, far CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr COR PO RATE COUN SEL Nicholas J. Little, from being elitist and intellectual, is open to anyone, at any age—it is in fact the Brenton Ver Ploeg ultimate populist, democratizing activity. SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr In part two of her examination of QAnon, Stephanie Kemmerer looks even COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo deeper into the dark recesses of that attractor of conspiratorial ideas, no matter DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, RICHARD DAWKINS FOUNDATION how unhinged and crazy. Some QAnon followers may have had their worldview FOR REASON & SCIENCE Robyn E. Blumner shocked when their disinformation-fueled beliefs about the election failed to ma- DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT Connie Skingel terialize, but the movement is still dangerous and is not going away, Kemmerer DIRECTOR OF MARKETING says. We again commend her for her insightful reporting. And in “Down with Cameron Popp DIRECTOR, DIGITAL PRODUCT AND STRATEGY Science—but Why?” Peter Lantos laments an increasing tendency to distrust and Marc Kreidler even reject science and its institutions. He stresses the many strands of thought SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR that lead people to science denial, including politics, religion, and vested interests. Cody Hashman DIRECTOR, TEACHER INSTITUTE Trying to understand their positions is the first step. FOR EVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE Now I want to offer some cautionary, even contradictory, thoughts about such Bertha Vazquez BOARD OF DIRECTORS Edward Tabash (chair), Vinod matters. They come courtesy of Stephen Hilgartner, J. Benjamin Hurlbut, and Bhardwaj, David Cowan, Richard Dawkins, Brian Engler, Kendrick Frazier, Barry A. Kosmin, Bill Maxwell, Y. Sherry Sheila Jasanoff in a recent Policy Forum article in Science (February 26). They see Sheng, Julia Sweeney, J. Anderson Thomson Jr., Leonard the current antiscience movement as legitimate “dissent” and say that labeling it Tramiel. Honorary: Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, Susan Jacoby. “antiscience” is bad social science and bad politics. “What looks like an attack on STAFF Melissa Braun, Matthew Cravatta, Roe Giambrone, science may simply be the pursuit of politics by other means,” they write. “The di- Aaron Green, Melissa Myers, Paul Paulin, Michael Powell, vision is not between those who march for science and those who march against Vance Vigrass, Shaun White science. It is between competing understandings of how to balance collective responsibility and individual liberty.” Further, “In America, factual controver- sies in policy contexts are less about the credibility of the science than they are proxies for disagreements about competing ways of life. … The ‘antiscience’ label conflates normative dissent about which values matter with epistemic dissent on matters of fact.” It is a sobering cautionary note for we pro-science skeptics who exalt evidence, facts, and science above all. I appreciate what Hilgartner and colleagues are saying—competing values are what are often really at play in such discussions—and we all need to better understand that. But I nevertheless argue that scientific thinking is a high value in itself and that selective repudiation of inconvenient scientific findings is a deplorable impulse even if the intent is not to denigrate the science but to reinforce one’s personal values. —K F

CFI Mission: The Center for Inquiry strives to foster a secular society based on reason, science, freedom of inquiry, and humanist values. Our Vision: A world where people value evidence and critical thinking, where superstition and prejudice subside, and where science and compassion guide public policy. Our Values: Integrity, Courage, Innovation, Empathy, Learning, and Wonder. 4 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Making Conspiracy Theories Cost: When Consequences Follow

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Skeptics and folklorists know that conspiracy theories are a dime a dozen. For every high-profile one you can think of—from Roswell alien bodies to moon-landing hoaxes—there are hundreds of lesser-known ones. And more are cranked out all the time. Conspiracy theories rise and fall in popularity, but—like unsinkable rubber ducks— they never really go away. Because they are rarely if ever disproven, there’s an ever-growing number of them. And though they’ve circulated for thousands of years, they’ve exploded in number, variety, and virulence in the age of social media. Conspiracy theories persist partly because they benefit those who tell them in some way. And because they often demonize others, they are baked into religious, cultural, and political agendas. They can be dangerous—even deadly—but those who share them typically are not harmed by them (except perhaps indirectly), and they cost rela- proffered by Alex Jones and his ilk), almost nothing to post crazy things tively little in social capital. Many con- some are potentially libelous—and online, aside from mild social stigma. spiracy theories have no inherent named that’s where legal consequences come But this cost is more than offset by implementor, no specific single person other benefits for many. For a lot of into the picture. If you say something fringe figures like anti-vaxxers, flat- blamed for some action. Instead, it’s a that you know is false or made with earthers, and QAnon conspiracy the- shadowy, inchoate cabal of nameless willful disregard for its truth and then orists, espousing an extreme belief is conspirators, such as the Illuminati or it harms the reputation of a person or not necessarily about the truth. Satanists. Other times conspiracy the- entity, you can be held legally liable for However, in recent years—and more ories are ascribed to specific people— damages. so in recent months—it has become typically rich and powerful men, such as A January 14, 2021, article in Fortune Bill Gates and George Soros. clear that conspiracy theories can be ex- by Ryan Young argued for conspiracy pensive. Here are a few examples. theories to be viewed through an economic prism: Conspiracy theories • Smartmatic, an election technol- persist partly because If you think of irrationality as a ogy company, filed a $2.7 billion defa- consumer good, much like a car or a mation lawsuit against both Fox News television, you can better understand they benefit those who why people sometimes say and do as a corporation and several of its news tell them in some way. crazy things. Think of it like this: hosts for repeatedly and without basis People buy more cars and televisions falsely accusing it of rigging the elec- when they are cheap, and fewer tion for Joe Biden over former President when they are expensive. This logic Donald Trump. The false conspiracies, applies to conspiracy theories. Here, While most conspiracy claims are price is not necessarily measured the company claimed, cost the com- shielded by the First Amendment as in money. The “price” of armchair pany millions of dollars. Smartmatic protected free speech (a defense often theorizing is low, usually. It costs issued a statement saying, in part, “Fox

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 5 cally—endorsed debunked misinformation and conspiracy theories, as well as racist views and even a threat to others in government.

• No modern politician has so successfully and routinely employed conspiracy theories as Trump, who even appeared on the Alex Jones show. Jones, of course, repeatedly claimed that the Obama administration faked domestic shootings (including the Sandy Hook school massacre—over which Jones eventually lost a $100,000 defamation lawsuit in 2019) as a pretext for confis- cating American’s guns. Though Trump often benefited from trading in conspiracies, they also ended up costing him a legal team. Five members of Trump’s original team slated to defend him resigned just days before his second impeachment trial. Why? is responsible for this disinformation day after the lawsuit naming the host Because Trump’s insistence that they endorse disproven claims of election campaign, which has damaged democ- was filed. The Washington Post reported fraud put the lawyers’ own legal ca- racy worldwide and irreparably harmed that the suit “cited several examples of reers in jeopardy. Lawyers are required Smartmatic and other stakeholders who Dobbs promoting baseless claims of to represent their clients to the best of contribute to modern elections.” voter fraud, including a November 12 their ability, but they can be disbarred if According to a February 4, 2021, ar- episode in which former President Don- they present information to a court they ticle in the Washington Post: ald Trump’s personal attorney Rudolph believe, or have good reason to believe, W. Giuliani claimed that Smartmatic The company said it has identified is false. Trump’s election-theft conspir- “100 false statements and implica- was founded by Venezuelans close to acies wilted at the courtroom doors for tions” about Smartmatic and its ser- former dictator Hugo Chávez ‘in order months, and his lawyers were well aware vices made on Fox’s programs. The to fix elections.’ Dobbs thanked Gi- lawsuit singles out Fox News and of that. His legal team was prepared to Fox Business Network hosts Maria uliani for being ‘on the case,’ which the mount a defense on other grounds, but Bartiromo, Lou Dobbs, and Jeanine host said ‘has the feeling of a coverup not the one Trump wanted. So they quit Pirro, as well as two guests who in certain places.’” (Right-wing net- en masse and were replaced a few days repeatedly appeared on their shows work Newsmax, which was threatened in the weeks around the election: later with a new team—one that was Trump-affiliated lawyers Sidney with lawsuits over false statements of universally criticized for being disorga- Powell and Rudolph W. Giuliani. election fraud, backed off its claims and nized and of dubious competence. Smartmatic said in the lawsuit that even cut off Trump-supporting MyPil- the company performed work in low founder Mike Lindell during an in- Holding people responsible for false only one county during November’s terview rant, causing one of the hosts to election, helping officials in Los claims is of course a chief occupation of Angeles implement a pandemic-safe walk off the set when Lindell wouldn’t skeptics, investigators, journalists, and voting system. The alleged smear stop spewing conspiracies that could get others. The legal system is being more campaign nevertheless succeeded in the network sued.) widely recognized as a useful tool for making Smartmatic “known by vot- helping refute some of the most bla- ers in the United States and abroad tant and egregious of them. When the as a criminal that stole the 2020 • On February 3, the House of Rep- U.S. election,” leading to the loss resentatives removed conspiracy mon- cost of conspiracy mongering rises and of business partners, strained client ger and QAnon proponent (and newly results in real consequences, those who relationships and an estimated loss elected Georgia Representative) Marjo- share them may think twice. of more than $500 million in future rie Taylor Greene from two congressio- profits, according to the complaint. Benjamin Radford is the deputy editor of nal committees, Education and Budget. the S I. Fox canceled Lou Dobbs Tonight the Greene repeatedly—and unapologeti-

6 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Skeptical Inquirer Presents Series a Big Success; Fills CSICon Gap

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Fortunetelling Fraud (aka Psychic Fraud)” • Sean B. Carroll on “A Series of Fortunate Events: Chance and the Making of the Planet, Life, and You” • Timothy Caulfield on “The In- fodemic: Battle Does Bunk Work (Let’s Get To It!)” • Odaelys Walwyn-Pollard on “Dis- parities in the Midst of COVID- 19: Education, Health, and Race” • Maria Konnikova on “The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay At- tention, Master Myself, and Win” • Michael Mann on “The New Cli- Another month passes by, and it seems for the most part, we’ve been focused mate War: The Fight to Take Back another month is lost to the COVID- on conspiracy theories, countering an- Our Planet” 19 pandemic. I know many of us have ti-vaxxers, cognitive dissonance, medi- We just completed our largest talk used our time away from the nor- cal myths, science denial, the Infodemic, so far (around 1,200 of your fellow mal world wisely. We’ve cleaned out QAnon, and related topics. I guess the skeptics) with Stephanie Kemmerer on every one our closets, found all our overall theme we’ve been dealing with, “QAnon: Blood Libel for the Digital hidden childhood toys in the attic, in a broad sense, is Misinformation: Age.” (Kemmerer is author of SI’s two- rekindled our love affair with our pets, Why People Fall for It and How to part series on QAnon.) and watched in horror as the events Combat It. Upcoming talks include: of January 6 transpired. Additionally, Over the past few months, we’ve • Paul Offit on “SARS-CoV-2 Vac- I know thousands of you have tuned brought you lectures, discussions, and a cines: Where Do We Stand?” in (or Zoomed in) to the CSI lecture chance to ask questions of such speakers • Andrew Norman on “Mental Im- series Skeptical Inquirer Presents. It’s as: munity: Infectious Ideas, Mind almost hard to believe that we are now • Joseph Uscinski on “Coronavirus Parasites, and the Search for a Bet- eight months into the series. Conspiracy Theories” ter Way to Think” We could not hold our CSICon con- • Paul Offit on “Developing a • John Cook on “Gamification to ference in Las Vegas in October 2020 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine: Is Warp Counter Science Misinformation?” because of the pandemic, of course, so Speed Too Fast?” Each event is hosted by Leighann we started this lecture series to bring a • Carol Tavris on “The Role of Cog- Lord, stand-up comedian, cohost of the little bit of CSICon to you. We started nitive Dissonance in the Pandemic” CFI podcast Point of Inquiry, and so out featuring several speakers who were • Seema Yasmin on “Viral BS: Med- much more. (You should check out her scheduled to take part in CSICon 2020, ical Myths and Why We Fall For website at veryfunnylady.com.) but it is interesting how it has morphed Them” Check out the dates of our upcoming into something larger. • Nathan Lents on “Evolution Only events at skepticalinquirer.org and come When I am looking for speakers, I Breaks Things: Science Denial at join a thousand or so of your skeptical now find myself thinking in the back of the Heart of Intelligent Design” friends for the next Skeptical Inquirer my mind: I want people to tell me (us) • Sasha Sagan on “Rituals for Non- Presents. what the heck is going on! Why are so believers” many people against life-saving vacci- • John V. Petrocelli on “Persuasive Barry Karr is executive director of the nations? How did we get to the point Bullshitters and the Insidious Bull- Center for Inquiry as well as organizer of where American citizens felt compelled shit Hypothesis” Skeptical Inquirer Presents and past and to storm the Capitol? For the series, • Bob Nygaard on “Combating future CSICon conferences.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 7 $250,000 Remains Unclaimed: CFI Investigators Recount a Year of Applicants

L H  J U

clear (twelve applicants); various (twelve By the end of the year, seventy-two applicants). claims had been assigned to CFIIG Several claims, including those that investigators/first responders; of those, involved possible physical harm to either negotiations on four led to demonstra- the challenger or others, were rejected tions. All are described at https://cfiig. immediately due to CFIIG policies. For org/investigations/. These included one instance, the German challenger who claim of telepathy, one of the ability to claimed to be able to (mentally) deflect determine if a person was alive or dead a bullet shot directly at someone was by viewing a photograph, and one of told she must find a less deadly means teleportation and telekinesis. of demonstrating her powers. The chal- One claim on that page did not ac- lenger who claimed to be able to stop tually lead to a demonstration but is another person’s heart did not strike fear nevertheless instructive in showing how The Center for Inquiry Investigations into us but was denied under the same people can misinterpret what they ex- Group (CFIIG) currently administers “do no harm” policy. We also denied the perience. The challenger claimed to be the world’s largest active paranormal challenger who wanted to be paid just able to cause a top to spin in a manner challenge at $250,000 (the James Randi to be tested. that standard physical theory suggests is Education Foundation $1 Million Other challengers, particularly those impossible. After much discussion and Challenge has been dormant for years). claiming to be “psychic mediums,” ap- work among ourselves, we found two Many dozens of people apply for this parently did not understand that telling physicists who looked at the challeng- prize every year. This requires quite a us they had contacted dead people did er’s videos. The physicists determined bit of work on the part of the CFIIG’s not qualify as proof of ability. Others that what he was claiming was perfectly first responder team, which fields the claimed to have correctly made very explainable by Newtonian mechanics. initial inquiries and guides the chal- general predictions of events that were The challenger, unfortunately, refused lenger toward being tested. Here is a not tied to specific times or places. to accept this and probably still believes summary of our testing work in 2020. For example, one person claimed that that we somehow cheated him out of From January 1 to December 31, an earthquake would happen some- the prize. 2020, we received seventy-five formal time during 2020 at some place on the So what happened to the claims that challenge submissions and many other East Coast of the United States. There weren’t immediately rejected or that phone calls and inquiries. We believe was an earthquake in New Jersey, and led to failed demonstrations? In most the COVID-19 epidemic slowed our though the event was somewhat un- cases, the challenger did not respond usual traffic a bit. However, 2021 will usual, the challenger’s prediction was to the first email from a first responder be a totally different story. Since an ar- not specific, and so not impressive in within a reasonable amount of time, ticle on the Challenge appeared on Me- any way. which led to the challenge being closed. dium’s OneZero on February 24, we’ve Others did not understand that their In others, our standard suggestion for gotten over 100 new applications. (apparent) hallucinations, personal ex- the challenger to perform a self-test Applicants are often not very clear periences, or pareidolia were not ob- was also met with silence—or maybe about what exactly they can do or what jective evidence of what they claimed. led to failure. These applications were the claim entails, so categorizing the Similarly, videos that showed “orbs” also closed. It should be noted that it is claims is sometimes difficult. With that don’t mean that there was a ghost in the rare for challengers to actually conduct caveat, the claims fell roughly into these room. Dust on a camera lens, reflections a self-test and conclude that their abili- categories: clairvoyance (five appli- from objects, etc., can produce similar ties are not real. We’re usually happy to cants); energy (five applicants); entities/ effects. Though we are often interested test them in person. spirits/ghosts (six applicants); psychic/ to see what leads people to believe they Lou Hillman is challenge coordinator medium (five applicants); telekinesis are having a paranormal experience, we for the Center for Inquiry Investigations (eight applicants); telepathy (sixteen do not accept photo or video evidence as Group. James Underdown is the founder applicants); numerology (three appli- proof toward our quarter-million-dollar and chair of the CFIIG. cants); miracles (three applicants); un- prize.

8 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Phosphine Detected on Venus? We Still Don’t Know

D W. B

A team of scientists from the United Both groups, one American and one puter scientist: “With four parameters I Kingdom and the United States European, used the same publicly avail- can fit an elephant, and with five I can recently announced the detection of able dataset as the original researchers make him wiggle his trunk.” The origi- phosphine, PH3, in the upper atmo- but subjected them to different cali- nal researchers used twelve parameters, sphere of Venus, the second planet in bration and baseline corrections. These and the new critics argue that this was our solar system (“Phosphine Gas in corrections, usually in the form of a unnecessarily complex and led to an in- the Cloud Decks of Venus,” by Jane S. mathematical equation that can digi- correct conclusion. Greaves et al. Nature Astronomy [2020]; tally “erase” part of the detected signal, Now What? https://www.nature.com/articles/ are necessary because the raw data s41550-020-1174-4). Using millimeter from experimental light sources—in Well, is there or is there not phos- spectroscopy, a common astronomical this case, Venus—is always messy with phine—and maybe life—on Venus? technique used to detect molecules, background noise, especially when the Right now the answer is we don’t know. the authors presented a case for the data is more detailed, that is, when the The chemistry of Venus’s atmosphere presence of the phosphorus-containing data has a higher resolution. Calibration is not very well understood, in part molecule in the cloud decks, about fif- and baseline corrections work to min- because of the extreme difficulty of ty-six kilometers above the surface. To imize the background noise and allow sending robotic missions to that planet. confirm its detection, the astronomers researchers to detect a true signal. It’s Venus has the most inhospitable con- verified their ability to detect water ditions of any rocky planet in the inner and sulfur dioxide (SO ), the latter of solar system; with surface conditions of 2 ° which has a signal (at 267.5375 GHz At least two other approximately 850 F and ninety-two or 1.121 mm) very close to that of research groups have atmospheres, it is even more extreme PH3 (266.9445 GHz or 1.123 mm). than Mercury, which is half the dis- Their data analysis indicated that the contested the conclu- tance from the Sun. Of several landers new signal was definitely not SO2, and sion that the signal that have been sent to Venus, the lon- they concluded that phosphine was gest-lived was the Soviet probe Venera the only plausible source of the signal. was phosphine—or that 14, which landed on the surface in 1982 They estimate a concentration of about there was any signal and lasted 127 minutes before losing twenty parts per billion. contact. Why is this noteworthy? Because on in the first place. Right now we are limited to explor- Earth the only natural sources of PH3 ing the nature of our closest planetary are biological, most likely from the an- neighbor by analyzing the light it re- aerobic decomposition of phosphates the same as using noise-reducing head- flects or emits, with the Sun sometimes in decaying organic (that is, related to phones to remove the annoying hiss getting in the way. As this research life) matter. Phosphine is not stable for when listening to an audio program. shows, it’s not easy. But to those who very long in an atmosphere that con- In both cases, the research groups argue that this is another example of tains oxygen gas, so it would have to be claim that if a different background science not making up its mind (a com- constantly produced at low levels from correction was applied, the claimed sig- mon trope of the antiscience crowd), the decay of living organisms. There are nal from PH3 disappears—or is more reality is that this is how science works. no known geological or atmospheric correctly identified as SO2. In addition, To paraphrase a well-known Starfleet sources for terrestrial phosphine. both research groups used a simpler captain, science is a crucible in which Schrödinger’s Phosphine? background correction, with one group we burn away all irrelevancy until what arguing that the background correc- is left is the truth. What we see here is Not so fast, say some other scientists. tion used in the original paper added science happening before our very eyes, At least two other research groups more detail to the signal, leading the and it’s a wonderful show. have submitted manuscripts (available researchers to claim a signal that was David W. Ball has just retired as a profes- on arxiv.org) contesting the conclusion not there. One researcher recalled a sor of chemistry from Cleveland State Uni- that the signal was phosphine—or that quote attributed to John von Neumann, versity in Ohio. there was any signal in the first place. a well-known mathematician and com-

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 9 Physicist C.S. Wu Honored with U.S. Postage Stamp

K F

Wu was known for her experimental prowess.

tion of parity was invalid under weak nuclear interactions. This discovery of parity violation was a major contribu- tion to particle physics and the development of the Standard Model. In his classic book The Ambidex- trous Universe (first published in 1964), Martin Gardner noted that at the time Wu was already considered one of the

world’s leading physicists and respected Columbia University physicist Chien-Shiung Wu at work in for the “care and elegance for which her her laboratory experiments were always designed,” and he referred to this specific experiment of hers as “revolutionary” (Gardner 1979, to the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) 203–204). “Everybody expected Madam paradox. Wu to find a left-right symmetry in the She was a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a 1975 recipi- Courtesy of the United States Postal Service website process of beta-decay. Nature sprang a surprise.” Gardner compared her dis- ent of the National Medal of Science, covery to the Michelson-Morley exper- a recipient of many other awards and Chinese American experimental phys- iment that paved the way for Einstein’s medals, and was the first living scientist icist Chien-Shiung Wu was honored theory of relativity. The results of both to have an asteroid named after her (in with a postage stamp issued by the U.S. were great surprises. “Madam Wu’s ex- 1990). Postal Service in virtual ceremonies on periment may well prove to be equally In 1975, she became the first woman February 11, 2021. Wu, who came to historic” (Gardner 1979, 207–208). elected president of the American Phys- the United States in 1936 to do gradu- Lee and Yang were awarded the ical Society. She was a determined ad- ate work, received her doctorate at UC Nobel Prize for Physics in 1957, but vocate for women in science, becoming Berkeley (under E.O. Lawrence and Wu’s role in the discovery was not pub- more outspoken late in her career. Emilio Segrè), and spent most of her licly honored until 1978, when she was Wu retired from Columbia in 1997, career at Columbia University. She was awarded the inaugural Wolf Prize in becoming a professor emerita, and died a world authority on beta decay, coau- Physics. in New York City at the age of eighty- thoring the standard reference work four. on the topic, and was known for her Columbia physics professor Brian experimental prowess. Wu was the first living Greene and Wu’s daughter spoke at the She worked on the Manhattan Proj- ceremonies announcing the commem- ect during World War II in the labo- scientist to have an orative postage stamp. It is a Forever ratories of Harold Urey in the gaseous asteroid named after stamp always equal in value to current diffusion (K-25) program for uranium first-class-mail one-ounce postage. enrichment. She became a U.S. citizen her. Reference in 1954 and a full professor at Columbia Gardner, Martin. 1979. The Ambidextrous in 1958. Universe (revised edition). New York, NY: Wu proposed and carried out the Another important experiment of Charles Scribner’s Sons. experiment necessary for theoretical Wu’s was the first experimental confir- Kendrick Frazier is the editor of the S - physicists T-D Lee and C.N. Yang to mation of quantum results relevant to a I. demonstrate that the law of conserva- pair of entangled photons as applicable

10 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Randi Remembrance

A S. R

The January/February 2021 issue of SI At the time, I did not know about her “Excellent,” he said. “Would you like me was dedicated to the memory of James work in psi. to come out to Brooklyn and be a ‘guest Randi, every skeptic’s hero. There was Randi said to her, “Of course you lecturer’?” I replied, “Yes, of course,” a request for Randi stories; here’s mine. may. Take the time you need,” which, astonished that he would do this for First, the backstory: Randi was part of course, was typical of him. She pro- someone he’d only met once. And he of a panel the Eastern Psychological ceeded to describe the study, which did, and he was, well, “amazing.” He Association had put together to look looked at telepathy in children and wouldn’t do magic, though. He always at parapsychology in 1980. After the found what Schmeidler had dubbed said he was there for the science. But various presentations were over, Randi the “sheep-goat” effect—her effort to at lunch later, magic was never far away. did a few tricks for us. A young woman explain why large-sample studies always On one of his visits, our daughter—who took to the floor microphone and stated seemed to come out at chance. When was in her early teens then—joined us. that she thought the presentations were she finished, the panelists asked some Predictably, her wristwatch ended up on rather one-sided. She said that she was questions, and she responded politely Randi’s wrist and the salt shaker in her completing her PhD at the City Uni- and effectively. Afterward, an old friend zipped-up purse. I watched, seeing if I versity of New York under Gertrude who was on the panel introduced me to could catch the swindle-moment. Nope. Schmeidler and asked if she could have Randi, who said, “Get in touch if there’s He was the master at distraction, and it was always done so you didn’t realize some time to tell them what she’d found. anything I can do for you,” and gave me you were being manipulated. This is the point where my ears went up, his phone number. When I got home, I told my wife, as I was on the faculty of the Brooklyn who was also completing her PhD at Campus and the Graduate Center of CUNY, about this session. “Oh,” she Randi wouldn’t do CUNY. Schmeidler was a full professor laughed. “I know her. She was in our at the City campus known for her re- magic, though. He dissertation seminar last semester. That search in social and clinical psychology. study, by the way, is fatally flawed. It always said he was took us a good half hour to find the pro- there for the science. cedural gaffe, but it virtually guarantees getting a false ‘sheep-goat’ outcome.” But at lunch later, “What happened then?” I asked. magic was never far “Oh, when she realized what was happening, she got angry, upset, insulted us, away. and started crying. So we just backed off and went on to someone else’s research.” “Now that is fascinating,” I said. As his fame grew, his time became “Four months ago, she discovered that more precious, and he said he had to the research methodology was flawed “bail out” on the Brooklyn visits. I un- and the data useless … and there she derstood. I, for one, am ever grateful for was, confidently presenting her findings his generosity with his time and his ge- as though they were valid.” That was the nius, and I still do not understand how day I decided to propose a new course you can take someone’s wristwatch off titled Parapsychology: A Critical Ex- without them realizing it. amination. I taught it every year from 1981 until my retirement in 2005. It is Arthur S. Reber is Broeklundian Professor still offered regularly by other faculty. Emeritus of Psychology at Brooklyn Col- That brings me to Randi. I called lege and the Graduate Center of CUNY. He him up (this was when he lived in New coauthored, with James E. Alcock, “Why Jersey), told him about the flaws in the Parapsychology Claims Can’t Be True” in student’s study and how the session in- our July/August 2019 issue. Image Copyright Deyvi Orangel Peña Arteaga spired me to introduce the new course.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 11 In Memoriam: Chris Fix, Our Former Art Director

The entire SKEPTICAL INQUIRER family mourns the loss of former Art Director Christopher S. Fix, who died of pancreatic cancer March 6 in Amherst, New York. He was only fifty-one. Chris joined our production staff in 2002 and became art director in 2008. Beginning with our January/February 2009 issue and ending with our May/June 2020 issue, when he had to step down due to his illness, Chris designed every SKEPTICAL INQUIRER cover and designed and laid out our inside pages, including selection of most art and illustrations. He did the same for our sister magazine, Free Inquiry, and also designed promotional materials for our combined Center for Inquiry organization. A Buffalo native and graphics designer, Chris’s working style was calm, quiet, professional. He leaves his parents, Norman and Dorothy Fix; his wife, Tricia; daughters, Samantha and Ava; and son, John. Our hearts go out to his family. We will miss him. —THE EDITORS Chris Fix and his wife, Tricia

CSICon 2021 Canceled, CSICon 2022 to Be the Best Conference Yet

B K

I am sorry to report that the decision has been made to cancel CSICon again this year. Although recently the news has become somewhat encouraging regarding the pandemic—vaccinations are up, and infections seems to be trending lower—it is just too uncertain as to when things will be safe again for people to travel and gather in large convention rooms and meeting areas. There are too many questions that have no answers yet for us to continue to move forward with the large amount of background work that would need to be done before October rolls around. Plans are now underway to make have a few extra surprises as well. We having been put to work guarding our CSICon 2022 the best CSICon confer- will be updating information regarding Coronavirus sanitizer stash). ence ever. We have invited all our pro- scheduling and registrations on a reg- Please stay safe and be well. We look jected 2021 speakers to come in 2022, ular basis. forward to seeing you soon at CSICon including Neil deGrasse Tyson, Penn & The conference will be held at the 2022! Teller, Richard Dawkins, Piff the Magic Flamingo Hotel and Resort, October Dragon, and a host of others. We will 20–23, 2022, which gives us a wonder- Barry Karr is the executive director of the work hard to bring them all in 2022. ful opportunity to bring back our Fla- Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. We also have reason to think we will mingo mascots (who were not happy

12 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, did doctoral work in literary investigation and folklore at the University of Kentucky. He is CSI’s senior research fellow.

The Wyoming Death Ship: Truth Be Told

host ships are said to be “suf- Platte” truly a thrice-documented para- Gene Wilson was shown the “terribly ficiently abundant” in certain normal phenomenon or instead a work burned” face of a woman he neverthe- locales as “to make them a of fiction? Here are the facts. less recognized as his wife. And finally, Ghazard to navigation” (Beck 1973, 395). on November 20, 1903, homesteader Some—seen in storms or fog—are The Story Told Victor Heibe, who had been a witness probably mirages. (For example, a fiery, for hired-gun Tom Horn at his murder Haunted Places: The National Directory phantom-ship mystery I investigated trial in Cheyenne, saw the hanged body in Nova Scotia was solved by witnesses (Hauck 1996, 462) summarizes the of his friend dangling from the cross- who cited fog in front of the moon three alleged personal accounts pre- arm of a gallows. Heibe had checked coming over the horizon, causing it to sented by Gaddis, but it makes some his watch, which read 3:15—the time of appear like a ship in flames [Nickell errors and important omissions, so here Horn’s hanging, implies Gaddis (1948, 2012, 172–173].) The phantom ships is my own capsule version. 115, 128), on that very day! are almost always purposeful—“usually In each tale, a man encounters a Gaddis claims that these accounts to serve as a forerunner to warn or pre- spectral ship covered in ice on the Platte were originally gathered by something pare those who see it for dire events” River. On deck is a crew of ghostly sail- called The Cheyenne Bureau of Psy- (Beck 1973, 395–396). ors who, at the command of their cap- chological Research. The first two are Such a vessel—known as “Wyo- tain, lower a sheet of canvas to reveal— quoted in their entirety (they are mod- ming’s Ship of Death” (Riccio 1991) before the vessel vanishes—a corpse. els of conciseness and colorful imagery) and “Platte River Ship of Death” (Rizzo In each case, it is that of someone be- and are indicated as “(signed)” followed 2013)—is described in numerous ac- loved of the witness who subsequently by the witness’s name. The last is told in counts, the earliest known having been learns that he or she has died that very Gaddis’s words except for brief quotes in the premiere issue of Fate magazine afternoon. First, in 1862, an Indian from the alleged witness who, it is indi- in an article by Vincent Gaddis (1948). scout named Leon Webber saw his cated, had also made a signed statement. But was that “phantom ship of the dead fiancée. Next, in 1887, cattleman Gaddis (1948, 128) concludes:

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 13 Textual Evidence Perhaps it should be added that Mr. “a square of canvas” (Wilson), and “a Heibe did not know that the phan- Each of the three tales Gaddis pro- large sheet of canvas” (Gaddis speaking tom vessel had appeared twice before vides is told in storybook fashion with for Heibe). Again, Webber refers to “a until he was asked by the bureau to the obvious intent of being spine-tin- file his own account of his weird strange sight” and “the strange phe- experience. glingly mysterious, as shown by nomenon,” and Wilson speaks of “this Three times the phantom ship Webber’s use of “apparition,” “chilling,” strange vessel,” while Gaddis speaks of of the Platte, under sail and coated “Spectral Ship of Death”; Wilson’s “set Heibe’s “weird experience.” with glittering ice, has emerged from my nerves atingle,” “strange vessel,” Another stylistic similarity is found out of the vasty deep. When will it “overcome with terror”; and Heibe’s again appear with its tale of gruesome in the use of passive-voice constructions: tragedy? (in Gaddis’s retelling) “phantom ship,” for example, Webber says that he “was “spellbound,” and “scene of horror.” told”; Wilson states that “ship sounds Research on my behalf by CFI Li- Each tale ends with the ghostly ship were heard” and the “canvas was low- braries Director Tim Binga failed to vanishing followed by the dramatic rev- ered”; and Gaddis (paraphrasing Heibe) turn up either the first or third witness, elation that the gruesome vision proved also says the “canvas was lowered.” although Tom Horn was indeed hanged true, having occurred at that very time. I decided to apply to the three texts for the ambush-murder of fourteen- However, real people’s first-person a standard “readability formula,” based year-old Willie Nickell (yes, a distant accounts do not always end that way. on the length of independent clauses to- relative of mine), having apparently Some finish with puzzlement as to gether with the number of polysyllabic been mistaken for his sheepherder fa- what actually happened or give some words (Bovée and Thill 1989, 126). The levels for Webber, Wilson, and Gaddis/ ther. (This was during the Wyoming philosophical or other response (see St. Heibe were, respectively, 10, 10, and “range wars,” when Horn was hired gun Aubyn with Hanbury 1996, 24–25, 31). 12—that is, the approximate education for the “cattle barons” [Ball 2014].) The In short, the Gaddis trilogy reads more like a single attempt to sell the super- level, in years, each text would be placed second witness shows up on the 1900 natural than three separate accounts of at. These education labels would seem U.S. census for Wyoming as Eugene actual experiences. somewhat high for the Indian scout, Wilson, age thirty-five; he was “wid- Various words and phrases in the cattleman, and homesteader but could owed,” which is consistent with his three accounts seem unconvincing as be expected if all were written by Gad- wife having perished in the “autumn of the language of simple outdoorsmen dis. 1887.” But why did Wilson fail to give (though not for Gaddis, whose use of his wife’s name or provide her death the phrase “the vasty deep” shows he Other Revelations date as an essential fact? knew his Shakespeare [see Henry IV, Gaddis’s little trilogy of tales—about Part I, act 3, scene 1]). Consider Web- the spectral ship emerging from mist ber’s “to give vent to,” “assumed the and forecasting deaths that occur, dis- shape of,” “the apparition,” “standing in a tantly, at that very time—is not entirely circle of close formation,” “covered with unique. It obviously evokes Greek hoar-frost which glittered in the rays of mythology’s River Styx, which sur- the afternoon sun,” and “the Spectral rounds the underworld. Across it the Ship of Death”; Wilson’s “while gazing aged boatman Charon ferried the souls out upon the swiftly running water,” of the dead. (In Gaddis [1948, 115] a “the man whom,” “without a sign of an- voice tells the hanged man, Horn, “it is imation,” “frost-laden sailcloth,” “what I our duty to ferry you across”—empha- surmised,” “the frightfully scarred face,” sis added.) The three visions are akin “my supposition is that”; and Heibe’s (as to “dream clairvoyance”—in which a related by Gaddis) “the vapory vessel,” “a dream or vision of an event allegedly scene of horror on the phantom deck,” occurs simultaneously with the event and so on. (Guiley 1991, 112). For example, in an Moreover, the “three” men not only Edgar Allan Poe tale a mystic tells a describe the respective scenes similarly, man—regarding an out-of-body expe- but they often use similar wording. For rience the latter has had—“that at the example, all refer to “a sailing vessel”: “a very period in which you fancied these sailing vessel of an ancient type” (Web- things amid the hills I was engaged ber), “a full-rigged sailing vessel” (Wil- in detailing them upon paper here at son), and “the form of an ancient sailing home” (Poe [N.d.] 1975). vessel” (Gaddis paraphrasing Heibe). Quite often, a ghost anecdote is of Then there is the piece of sailcloth: this kind. A well-known example, told “a large square of canvas” (Webber), by a Judge Hornby, occurred in 1875. A

14 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer reporter had showed up unexpectedly the premiere 1948 issue of Fate is itself was a ready public appetite and corre- one evening and, looking “deadly pale,” a clue. That pulp “true mysteries” type sponding market for such spine-tin- insisted on taking advance notes of magazine did not—especially in its gling tales. Gaddis, Frank Edwards, and Hornby’s impending judicial findings. early years—make factual accuracy its their fellow mystery mongers borrowed The next day Hornby learned that the most important concern. Ray Palmer, from each other, rewriting the accounts man had actually died at the time of the its copublisher (with Curtis Fuller) as necessary without wasting time in- visit and that, although he had never left had previously edited the bestselling vestigating their truth or falsehood. the house, with his body was the notebook science fiction magazines Amazing Of course, skeptics were frequently recording the judge’s summary! In fact, the Stories and Fantastic Adventures and debunking the accounts—in whole or judge’s often-told but too-good-to-be- was hugely involved in the early hyping part—but avid readers either turned a true story succumbed to investigation, of flying saucers, about which he once deaf ear to them or simply moved on and a bewildered Judge Hornby would asked rhetorically, “What if I told you to the next batch of yarns. In fact, this later admit, “My vision must have fol- it was all a joke?” (Cohen 2001). Jerome process still continues. • lowed the death (some three months) Clark (1998, II: 404), a former editor References instead of synchronizing with it” of Fate, acknowledges that “Purely fic- Ball, Larry D. 2014. Tom Horn in Life and Legend. (quoted in Hansel 1966, 186–189; see titious stories, some written by Palmer Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press. also Nickell 2012, 197). under various pseudonyms, appeared in Beck, Horace. 1973. Folklore and the Sea. Edison, Gaddis’s trilogy does not hold up NJ: Castle Books. the magazine.” Gaddis’s supernatural Bingham, Joan, and Dolores Riccio. 1991. More well either. For example, the detail, in death-ship yarn was probably bought Haunted Houses. New York: Pocket Books. Victor Heibe’s alleged account, that his by Palmer with a wink and a nod. Bovée, Courtland L., and John V. Thill. 1989. vision occurred at 3:15 on the afternoon Business Communication Today, 2nd ed. New York: Random House. of November 20, 1903, has only the day That many have taken Clark, Jerome. 1998. The UFO Encyclopedia, 2nd correct; Tom Horn was actually hanged ed. In two volumes. Detroit: Omnigraphics. Gaddis’s “Wyoming Cohen, Daniel. 2001. Raymond A. Palmer. In at 11:08 a.m. and formally pronounced Story 2001, 399–400. dead sixteen minutes later (Ball 2014, Ship of Death” at face Fiction Mags Index. N.d. Available online at 421). The ploy of having Heibe glance http://www.philsp.com/homeville/fmi/s/ value shows the credu- s3235.htm#A73986; list of Gaddis stories, at his watch—unaccountably, just be- accessed February 20. fore the death ship emerged from the lity accorded the para- Gaddis, Vincent. 1948. Wyoming’s ship of death. fog—provides what fiction writers call Fate 1(1) (Spring): 112–115, 128. normal. ———. 1964. The deadly Bermuda triangle. verisimilitude (a semblance of truth). Argosy (February). Another touch of verisimilitude is the ———. 1965. Invisible Horizons: True Mysteries claim that the three accounts were all of the Sea. New York: Chilton Books. ———. 1967. Mysterious Fires and Lights. New signed witness statements collected by That many have taken Gaddis’s York: Dell Books. the Cheyenne Bureau of Psychological “Wyoming Ship of Death” at face value Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Encyclopedia of the Research. Strange, Mystical, & Unexplained. New York: shows the credulity accorded the para- Gramercy Books. What is especially problematic is normal, and it casts further doubt on Hansel, C.E.M. 1966. ESP: A Scientific that Gaddis claims that all three ac- Gaddis’s “nonfiction” works as well. He Evaluation. New York: Charles Scribner’s counts—the first, the second, and the Sons. went on to fame—or infamy—as the Hauck, Dennis. 1996. Haunted Places: The third and last-known—came from this one who, according to writer John Keel National Directory. New York, NY: Penguin. single source. But if the Cheyenne Bu- (2001), “originated” the Bermuda Tri- Keel, John. 2001. In Story 2001, 536. reau of Psychological Research never Kusche, Lawrence David. 1975. The Bermuda angle “mystery” (Gaddis 1964; Gaddis Triangle Mystery—Solved. New York: Harper existed, then Gaddis is revealed as the 1965)—largely a contrived one, based & Row. creator. A search of books and internet on careless research and embellishments Nickell, Joe. 2012. The Science of Ghosts. Amherst, sources (the latter conducted by CFI NY: Prometheus Books. (Kusche 1975). He also helped promote Poe, Edgar Allan. (N.d.) 1975. A tale of the Libraries Director Tim Binga) failed belief in flying saucers, spontaneous ragged mountains. In The Complete Tales and to turn up any evidence that such a bu- human combustion, poltergeists, and Poems of Edgar Allan Poe, New York: Random reau ever existed except for sources that House, 679–687. the like (Gaddis 1967). Riccio, Dolores. 1991. Wyoming’s ship of death. (admittedly or otherwise) derive from It is easy to see why a writer such as In Bingham and Riccio 1991, 47–51. Gaddis. Rizzo, Tom. 2013. Legend of the Platte River Gaddis would forsake fiction for the Ship of Death. Available online at http:// “unsolved mysteries” genre. He was tomrizzo.com/Legend-of-the-platte-river- Conclusions spared having to constantly make up ship-of-death/; accessed February 12, 2015. St. Aubyn, Astrid, with Zahra Hanbury, compil- Vincent H. Gaddis (1913–1997) is new stories when there were ghost, fly- ers. 1996. Ghostly Encounters: True Tales of the known to have written fictional stories ing-saucer, and other such tales readily Ghouls, Spooks and Spectres in the Lives of the in his early years (Fiction Mags Index available. That those were supposedly Famous. London: Robson Books. Story, Ronald D. 2001. The Encyclopedia of N.d.), and “Wyoming’s Ship of Death” true rather than fictional took care of Extraterrestrial Encounters. New York: New is surely one of these. Its publication in the needed verisimilitude, and there American Library.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 15 [ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

What Would Randi Do?

few months after James Randi’s passing, it still is not easy to talk about him. We have often heardA and read about his extraordinary adventures and exploits: the unmasking of Peter Popoff, the Carlos Hoax, the Alpha Project, the Geller caper, the psychic surgeons of the Philippines, the “Water with Memory” affair, and so on. But Randi was so much more. He was above all a person who cared a lot for others, especially the less fortunate. Generous and unselfish, he always had kind words for everyone and was always ready to offer concrete help, not just comforting words. I have copies of numerous letters from people all over the world who thank him for what he selflessly did for them. His gestures of generosity and altru- ism were like pebbles capable of creating avalanches and having, directly or indirectly, concrete and positive effects on the lives of many people. His stories of his life “on the road,” when he was a magician in the United States and around the world, were ex- citing, but every now and then telling them made his voice crack. Like when he was lucky enough to listen to a con- cert by the great Nat King Cole in Buf- falo, New York, and then was able to sneak backstage. Completely infatuated with Cole’s extraordinary voice, Randi managed to shake his hand, express all his admiration, and exchange only a few words with that authentic legend of music before he was abruptly dismissed about certain things. In 1955, when he in a fistfight before you’ve been there by some stagehand, because “It’s not was already living in New York City, for forty-eight hours,” his show business good that a white boy mixes with col- after moving from Canada where he colleagues, with whom he used to hang ored people.” was born, he was offered to work for out at Hansen’s Drugstore on Broadway Randi still got mad when he thought eight weeks in Florida. “Well, you’ll be in New York City, told him.

16 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer “Why?” ever, nothing happened. The attendant turned purple with “Well, that’s totally segregated you So he went back to the theater. That anger and walked away stomping his know.” evening he presented his show; he freed feet. Randi wasn’t sure he understood. himself from a straitjacket hanging by Soon after, Randi returned to his “What do you mean?” his feet from a hook suspended above dressing room, packed his bags, and “It means that white and colored the stage. The audience in the seats took the first bus to the airport, where must be separated. They never attend a seemed to be almost exclusively white, he waited all night for the first flight performance together.” but on the posters there was no mention back to New York. He had had enough, Randi shrugged. “I don’t care. I per- of segregation, and, in any case, he had and for him the tour ended there. The form for everyone. I will put it in the the spotlight right in his eyes, so he was theater manager later called him on the contract that I will not perform for any not sure if he was seeing well. phone, threatening to sue him and take segregated audiences.” At the end of his act, out of curios- revenge. He threatened to make it im- “Good luck!” they responded. ity, Randi took a tour of the theater. In possible for Randi to work in any the- When Randi arrived in Ocala, Flor- the lobby, he noticed that there were ater in the world if he didn’t rush back ida, where the tour was due to open at boxes of programs from the show with to Florida. the Ritz Theater, he realized that on his the schedule for the evening and biog- “The contract that I signed said that bus there was a chain that divided the raphies of the artists. Each one had a I would not work for segregated audi- seats: white on one side, people of color serial, consecutive number on the front. ences, but it wasn’t like that in Ocala.” on the other. In the streets, there were Everyone in the stalls had one; it was “Well, that’s the way it is! It’s normal always two water fountains: one for the given as a gift at the entrance. However, over here!” whites and the other for “coloreds.” It it seemed strange to him that so many “It may be normal for you, but among was the same for the bathrooms, on were left over. civilized people this is an abomination,” whose doors a sign read: “White Only” The organizers were busy counting Randi replied and hung up the phone. and “Colored Only.” He was already them, and Randi thought they wanted In the end, the theater manager was starting to fume from his ears. to keep them as souvenirs, because they forced to pay Randi the agreed eight He went into a Woolworths to get had the name of the theater on them. So weeks, even though he had only per- something to eat. he asked the guys. formed once. “Hot dog and an orange drink, “Oh, we don’t give out tickets. We I wanted to share this story—which please,” he asked. give out programs, so we have to be able few people know and which Randi “Oh, we can’t serve you here, sir,” the to account for every other program.” considered one of his great victories— black waitress at the counter told him. Randi realized it was clever because because even if it has nothing paranor- “You have to go over to that side.” it was obvious that they were not going mal about it, it illustrates very well how Randi looked and, of course, he saw to pay for the unsold “tickets.” Randi, in his twenties, already had a a divider. Then he went up in the balcony. He very clear idea about what he considered “Does orange soda taste different if I found that it was packed—only with intolerable in the world and knew that, drink it over there?” black people. if he wanted things to change, he had to “No … it comes out from the same “We can’t be in the audience down commit himself personally. machine,” she replied. there,” a gentleman explained to him. Randi was like that all his life. The “Well, if you don’t mind, I’ll drink it “But we’d sure like to have a look at the nice thing is that there are dozens of here,” he told her with a smile. program.” stories like this one, and every time I see The girl smiled back, and then she Randi was confused. “Wait a minute. a photo or open a box of clippings or a brought out the hot dog and orange You didn’t get any programs?” file of documents, they all come back to drink, but a guy on the other side yelled “No, they don’t give us no programs.” me, and I hear his voice while he tells over: “Hey, you! Whatcha doin’ over on Now Randi was enraged, sputtering them. that side?” “Wait right here.” It hurts so much not being able to “Eating. Can’t you see?” He went downstairs, grabbed a huge see him anymore and not being able to “What, you a nigger lover?” box of programs, brought it upstairs, and talk to him anymore. But he will always “Well, I don’t know the young lady, started handing them out. be here with me, in my mind and in my but we can talk …,” he quipped with a “Oh, thank you, sir. Thank you; heart, and I really hope not only to be wink. thank you very much.” able to carry on his work in defense of The guy was furious. He glared at The organizer soon found out and rationality but also to always make my Randi like he wanted to kill him. was pissed off, demanding, “What the voice heard in the face of injustice. It Randi was sure that once he got out hell are you doing?” won’t be difficult; I just need to think of that place he would get into a fist- “Well, these folks up here didn’t get “What would Randi do now?” and the fight, and he couldn’t wait to teach those programs. I guess you forgot … Well, response will be automatic. bigots and retrogrades a lesson. How- don’t thank me.” Goodbye, Amazing. •

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 17 [ REALITY IS THE BEST MEDICINE HARRIET HALL Harriet Hall, MD, also known as “The SkepDoc,” is a retired family physician, a CSI fellow, and an editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog. Her website is www.skepdoc.info.

Does Public Water Fluoridation Make Children Less Intelligent?

he Centers for Disease Control and Prevention named community water fluoridation oneT of the ten greatest public health achievements of the twentieth century. In a recent statement, the American Dental Association (ADA) stressed that it is “committed to fluoridation of public water supplies as the single most effective public health measure to help prevent tooth decay” and pointed out that “this commitment is shared by many national and international organizations, including the World Health Organization, U.S. Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Medical Association, and the American Academy of Pediatrics” (American Dental Association 2019). Nevertheless, many people continue to strongly oppose water fluoridation. 1. Fluoride causes fluorosis (tooth that intrauterine exposure decreases Several countries have banned fluorida- discoloration), mainly at higher children’s IQ, but it found that the tion, preferring other methods of pro- doses. quality and quantity of research was viding fluoride. Opponents are quick to 2. Additional sources of fluoride poor and inadequate: capitalize on any reports of harm. When (toothpaste, etc.) can lead to higher • Most of the studies (71 percent) a recent study in Canada reported that doses than intended. were done before fluoride tooth- prenatal exposure to water fluorida- 3. Water fluoridation forces medi- paste was introduced. tion was associated with decreased IQs cation on everyone, not just those • There was a high risk of bias in in children, the media were all over it, who will benefit. the studies. stressing the danger. Critical thinkers 4. Other ways of providing fluoride • Many studies were of high natu- will want to avoid emotion-filled de- are equally effective. ral levels of fluoride rather than bate and instead will carefully evaluate 5. A Cochrane systematic review of fluoridated water. the details of the evidence. What is the (Iheozor-Ejiofor et al. 2015) found • There was substantial variation reality behind the fears and the hype? small increases in caries-free chil- in results. dren (15 percent for baby teeth and • There was inadequate evidence Objections to Fluoridation 14 percent for permanent teeth), for a benefit in adults. There are many objections to fluori- and found that at 0.7 ppm, 12 per- • There was inadequate evidence dation; among the most common are: cent of people will have fluorosis of for the effects of stopping flu- aesthetic concern. It found evidence oridation.

18 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Benefits of Fluoridation has a high fluoride content, and Fluoridation) programs is neuro- The ADA responded to the Cochrane there is exposure to fluoride in the toxic. Associations between very review, noting that over seventy years smoke from coal burning. high fluoride exposure and low IQ reported in previous studies may of rigorous scientific research analyzing • The high fluoride exposures were have been affected by confounding, fluoride intake from all sources has much higher than with fluorida- particularly by urban or rural status. consistently shown that an optimal tion; fluoridation has the same level of fluoride (0.7 ppm) in com- level of fluoride as the low-expo- Novella (2014) pointed out that munity water is safe and effective, and sure control groups in China. there was a trend toward higher IQ it prevents tooth decay by at least 25 • Confounding factors were not con- in the fluoride exposed group, but this percent in both children and adults sidered. was not statistically significant. There- (American Dental Association 2015). • The review actually showed that fore, the study was negative. The lack of They offered a booklet of “Fluoride fluoridation was safe. correlation held up even when they cor- Facts” explaining the evidence. rected for possible confounders such as Steven Novella (2012), in his Neuro- socioeconomic status. He wrote, “This Studies Prior to Canadian Study logica Blog, pointed out: is as good as it gets for an observational study—a nicely controlled environment, Before the Canadian study captured There are many weaknesses to the large population, good long term follow the public’s attention, studies in several epidemiological studies reviewed up.” countries had looked for a possible in the recent article—high hetero- geneity, poor controlling for other association between fetal exposure to variables, no indication of blinding A Mexican Study in 2017 fluoride and measures of children’s of IQ assessments, and many others. A 2017 study by researchers from the intelligence. Studies of laboratory ani- But even taken at face value they do United States, Canada, and Mexico mals had shown that fluoride could be not indicate any association between (Bashash et al. 2017) examined pre- neurotoxic, with effects on learning and lower IQ and the fluoride levels added to drinking water in the U.S. natal fluoride exposure and cognitive memory. Because fluoride is known to In fact, those levels of fluoride were outcomes in Mexican children. The cross the placenta, the idea was not used as the controls in these studies subjects were 229 mother-child pairs. implausible but needed to be tested showing higher IQ. (There was a Fluoride was measured in archived in humans. Let’s review some of the lot of variance of the effect size, results of human studies done before but the net effect size on IQ in the urine samples taken from moth- meta-analysis was -0.45 IQ points.) the Canadian study. ers during pregnancy. Children were tested with the General Cognitive The 2003 Chinese Study The 2015 Choi Pilot Study in China Index (GCI) of the McCarthy Scales A research report by Q. Xiang et In a 2015 pilot study by Choi et al., of Children’s Abilities at age four and al. (2003) found that higher drink- fifty-one Chinese first-grade children with full scale intelligence quotient ing water fluoride levels from natural in a community with stable lifetime (IQ) from the Wechsler Abbreviated sources were significantly associated fluoride exposure found that deficits Scale of Intelligence (WASI) at ages with higher rates of mental retardation were associated with increased flu- six to twelve. They found that higher (IQ < 70) and borderline intelligence oride exposure (Choi et al. 2015). levels of maternal urinary fluoride (IQ 70–79). Dental fluorosis score was the expo- during pregnancy (a proxy for prena- sure indicator that had the strongest tal fluoride exposure) were associated The 2012 Harvard Systematic Review association with the outcome deficits, with lower scores on tests of cognitive Choi et al. (2012) published a system- and the WISC-IV digit span subtest function in the offspring at ages four atic review and meta-analysis of stud- appeared to be the most sensitive out- and six to twelve years. IQ scores were ies on fluoride and neurobehavioral come. Moderate and severe fluorosis estimated to be 2.5 points lower for development. It found that children in was associated with a digit span total every 0.5 increase in prenatal fluoride high-fluoride areas had significantly score difference of -4.28. exposure, but the effect may be limited lower IQ scores than those who lived to higher fluoride exposures. in low-fluoride areas. Its methodology The 2015 New Zealand Study was criticized, and the statistical signif- A study by Broadbent et al. (2015) in Another Mexican study in 2017 icance was not thought to reflect clini- New Zealand was a prospective study Another study in Mexico (Valdez cal significance (Sabour and Ghorbani of a general population sample of over Jiméneza et al. 2017) tried to more 2013). a thousand subjects that found no dif- accurately quantify fluoride exposure. The review had several major flaws: ference in IQ from fluoride exposure. Data from sixty-five mother-infant • The studies reviewed were not of It concluded: pairs suggested that cognitive alter- fluoridation; they were from China These findings do not support the ations in children born from mothers and Iran. China does not fluoridate, assertion that fluoride in the con- exposed to fluoride could start in early but the natural water in some areas text of CWF (Community Water prenatal stages of life.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 19 The Canadian Study • Urine concentrations are variable. Broadbent, Jonathan M., W. Murray Thomson, Now let’s examine the recent study Sandhya Ramrakha, et al. 2015. Community They only represent one point in water fluoridation and intelligence: in Canada that raised so much alarm. time and have not been validated as Prospective study in New Zealand. American It was a study by Green et al. (2019) a measure of total maternal intake. Journal of Public Health 105(1): 72–76. in JAMA Pediatrics that examined Available online at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm. • The results are consistent with nih.gov/24832151/. 512 mother-child pairs in Canada. A noise in the data. Choi, Anna L., Guifan Sun, Ying Zhang, et al. 1-mg/L increase in maternal urinary 2012. Developmental fluoride neurotoxic- fluoride was associated with a 4.49- ity: A systematic review and meta-analysis. The study actually supported the Environmental Health Perspectives 120(10). point lower IQ score in boys, but there safety of water fluoridation. Even one Available online at https://ehp.niehs.nih. was no statistically significant associa- of its authors said that although she gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1104912. tion with IQ scores in girls. The scien- Choi, Anna L., Ying Zhang, Guifan Sun, et al. thought the study’s results were valid, 2015. Association of lifetime exposure to tific community pushed back. she continues to support fluoridation fluoride and cognitive functions in Chinese A leading Canadian health agency programs. children: A pilot study. Neurotoxicology evaluated the article. The Canadian and Teratology 47 ( January–February): The way the media reported the 96–101. Available online at https://www. Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Canadian IQ study was unfortunate. sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ Health (CADTH) (2019) published a They raised undue alarm over findings S0892036214001809. report evaluating the Green study and that many scientists have criticized as The Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH). 2019. concluded: questionable. Fluoridation is still the Community Water Fluoridation: A Review of The evidence is weak due to multi- best way to reduce the risk of tooth Neurological and Cognitive Effects. Available ple limitations (e.g., non-homoge- decay for all children, including those online at https://mattjacob.s3-us-west-2. amazonaws.com/cwfCADTH+Evalua- neous distribution of data, potential from the poorest families and those tion+of+Green+Study+(2019).pdf. errors and biases in the estimation who never see a dentist. Surely no par- Green, Rivka, Bruce Lanphear, Richard of maternal fluoride exposure and ent would want his or her children to Hornung, et al. 2019. Association between in IQ measurement, uncontrolled maternal fluoride exposure during pregnancy potential important confounding suffer unnecessarily from dental decay, and IQ scores in offspring in Canada. JAMA factors); therefore, the findings of and surely everyone would agree that Pediatrics 173(10): 940–948. Available online this study should be interpreted with preventing cavities is a worthwhile goal. at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama- caution. pediatrics/fullarticle/2748634. In my opinion, it’s fine for people to re- Iheozor-Ejiofor, Zipporah, Helen V. The study has serious flaws (Novella ject public water fluoridation, but only Worthington, Tanya Walsh, et al. 2015. Water if they find another practical way to en- fluoridation for the prevention of dental car- 2019): ies. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 6. sure that all children are provided with Available online at https://www.cochraneli- • “It’s hard to believe that a drop of fluoride in another form. brary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858. The bottom line is that high doses CD010856.pub2/full. 4.49 IQ points in boys was missed Novella, Steven. 2012. Anti-fluoride propaganda by prior research, and why is that of fluoride can be toxic, but the recom- as news. Neurologica Blog ( July 27). Available effect so large while there is no ef- mended concentration (0.7 mg/L) used online at https://theness.com/neurologica- in community water fluoridation is not blog/index.php/anti-fluoride-propagan- fect in girls (just a non-statistical da-as-news/. trend toward increased IQ).” harmful or toxic. Public water fluorida- ———. 2014. New study shows fluoride safe. • The study is at odds with a large tion is not going to decrease your chil- Neurologica Blog (May 20). Available online dren’s IQs. • at https://theness.com/neurologicablog/ body of prior research showing no index.php/new-study-shows-fluoride-safe/. association. References ———. 2019. Maternal fluoride and IQ. Science- • Even if high levels of exposure af- Based Medicine (August 21). Available online American Dental Association. 2015. The at https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/mater- fect IQ, there is no association at American Dental Association Responds to nal-fluoride-and-iq/. less than 2 ppm, and fluoridated Cochrane Review of Water Fluoridation Sabour, Siamak, and Zahra Ghorbani. 2013. water typically has 1 ppm. (news release). Available online at https:// Developmental fluoride neurotoxicity: www.ada.org/en/press-room/news-releas- Clinical importance versus statistical sig- • When outliers were eliminated, the es/2015-archive/july/the-american-den- nificance. Environmental Health Perspectives effect became nonsignificant. Two tal-association-responds-to-cochrane-re- 121(3). Available online at https://www.ncbi. of the boys had extremely low IQs, view-of-water-fluoridation. nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3621182/. ———. 2019. ADA Statement on Study in Valdez Jiméneza, L., López Guzmán, M. specifically in the 50s. JAMA Pediatrics (news release). Available Cervantes Flores, et al. 2017. In utero expo- • There was a disconnect: perfor- online at https://www.ada.org/en/press- sure to fluoride and cognitive development mance IQ decreased but verbal IQ room/news-releases/2019-archives/august/ delay in infants. NeuroToxicology 59 (March): increased. ada-statement-on-study-in-jama-pediatrics. 65–70. Available online at https://www. Bashash, Morteza, Deena Thomas, Howard Hu, sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ • The unadjusted IQ differences et al. 2017. Prenatal fluoride exposure and S0161813X16302571. were not statistically significant. cognitive outcomes in children at 4 and Xiang, Q., Y. Liang, L. Chen, et al. 2003. Effect • They didn’t look at post-natal lead 6–12 years of age in Mexico. Environmental of fluoride in drinking water on children’s Health Perspectives 125(9). Available online intelligence. Fluoride 36(2): 84–94. Available exposure, which can cause severe at https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ online at https://www.fluorideresearch. decreases in IQ. EHP655. org/362/files/FJ2003_v36_n2_p84-94.pdf.

20 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer [ BEHAVIOR & BELIEF STUART VYSE Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Supersti- tion, which won the William James Book Award of the American Psychological Association. He is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

When QAnon Prophecy Fails

Credit: Wikimedia Jake Angeli, a.k.a. “The QAnon Shaman,” photographed in Peoria, Arizona, in October 2020. (Source: Wikipedia)

Naturally, the next day was a bit of another momentous prophecy that did ne of the best theme par- an embarrassment for Camping, who, ties I’ve ever attended was not come to fruition. The shadowy despite having a BS in civil engineer- on May 21, 2011. The evan- internet conspiracy group QAnon has ing from the University of California, gelical Christian broadcaster Harold been thrust into the American con- O appeared to have made an error in his sciousness due to its prominent role in Camping had garnered considerable calculations. After a period of con- publicity with a prediction that The the siege of the U.S. Capitol on January templation, he recalculated and set Rapture would occur on that date and 6, 2021, as well as the controversy a new Rapture date for October 11, that approximately 3 percent of the surrounding Marjorie Taylor Greene, which soon came and went. This was world’s population would be swept up the newly elected member of the U.S. Camping’s fourth incorrect end-of- to heaven to meet their maker. The rest House of Representatives who is well the-world prophecy, and in May 2012, us would be goners. May 21 happened known for her support for the group he announced that he was quitting the to be a Saturday, so a neighborhood (Greenspan 2021). Of all the many doomsday prediction game. He died in couple organized a “Rapture Party,” photos we have seen of the marauders 2013. designed a special Rapture cocktail, who stormed the Capitol, the “QAnon and invited people in. We all had a Shaman” (a.k.a. Jake Angeli) is perhaps QAnon Prophecies wonderful time celebrating an event the most memorable. Bare-chested and we knew had no chance of happening. In recent months, we’ve heard about heavily tattooed, he wore red, white,

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 21 and blue face paint and a fur headdress old anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, Psychological Study of a Modern Group complete with horns. Several other promoted false claims, and made pre- That Predicted the Destruction of the rioters carried or wore QAnon symbols. dictions—some tied to specific dates. World (1956), coauthored by Festinger, QAnon is a loose but surprisingly Many QAnon predictions have Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. large group of people who believe a proven to be false (Rothschild 2021). The book recounts a rare participant collection of conspiracy theories, most For example, an early Q Drop said that observation study of a Chicago-area notably that Democrats—including Joe the arrest of Hillary Clinton was under- UFO doomsday group led by Dorothy Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, way and was being coordinated with the Martin (called Marian Keech in the and George Soros, as well as media fig- National Guard in the event she tried to book), a follower of Scientology who ures Oprah Winfrey, Tom Hanks, and escape abroad. Despite the many false claimed to communicate with higher Ellen DeGeneres—operate a global leads, QAnon appears to have gained beings—“guardians” from the planet cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles rather than lost followers. However, all “Clarion”—via automatic writing. (Roose 2020). That last sentence sounds this happened while the movement’s Martin made a prediction that the crazy, but an NPR/Ipsos poll conducted spiritual leader, Donald Trump, was still world would end in flood on a spe- in December 2020 found that 17 per- in power. Perhaps the most important cent of respondents agreed with the QAnon prediction was that Trump statement: “A group of Satan-worship- would be inaugurated for his second ing elites who run a child sex ring are term on January 20, 2021. When that trying to control our politics and media” day came and Joseph Biden took the (Newell 2020). Yes, 17 percent. Another oath of office on national television, central tenet of QAnon doctrine is a the most important of all prophecies commitment to Donald Trump, who failed. There have been some reports of is seen almost as a god. As Stephanie disaffected QAnon proponents leaving Kemmerer, author of the March/April the movement (Collins and Zadrozny 2021 S I cover story 2021), but social psychology suggests on QAnon, put it to me in an email, confronting a failed prophecy may “Not all MAGA are QAnon, but all actually strengthen belief rather than QAnon are MAGA.” According to weaken it. QAnon lore, Trump was recruited to run for office in 2016 by military gen- Cognitive Dissonance erals so that he could break up and ar- Many professional psychics have rest all the members of the pedophile learned the lesson of apocalyptic pre- conspiracy (Roose 2020). dictions: predict whatever you want; So where do the prophecies come just don’t give a specific date. If you tell in? Stay with me. QAnon is thought to someone, for example, “You will meet a Cover of the book When Prophecy Fails. (Source: Wikimedia.) have its roots in the debunked Pizza- tall dark stranger,” no matter who your gate conspiracy theory of the 2016 cam- victim is, they will eventually run into paign cycle that suggested that Hillary someone they can fit into the predic- Clinton was operating a sex trafficking tion. Or they will forget the prediction cific day, December 21, 1954, but that ring out of the basement of a popular altogether. But when a prophecy is her followers would be safely spirited Washington, D.C., pizza restaurant (in specific enough that clear failure is away in a spaceship. When a news fact the building didn’t have a basement possible—and when there are people article about the doomsday prediction [Wendling 2016]). In October 2017, who have a stake in the prediction appeared, Leon Festinger and his col- a mysterious character known as “Q being correct—cognitive dissonance leagues at the University of Minnesota clearance patriot” began posting on the can result. As it was later described by recognized that the case set up a rare 4chan message board, home to a variety psychologist Leon Festinger, cognitive opportunity to study people forced to of illegal and offensive content. “Q,” as dissonance is a state of unease created deal with a major disconfirmation of he is known, was purported to be some- by a conflict between your beliefs and their beliefs. As a result, the coauthors one who had security clearance and your actions, which is often resolved by and some paid researchers infiltrated access to secret information. He began changing your beliefs (Festinger and Martin’s group to observe how the posting cryptic messages, called “Q Carlsmith 1959). members reacted. Drops” (archived at https://qanon.pub/), But the kind of dissonance that The surprising result was that after many written in the kind of ambiguous many QAnon followers may now be the doomsday date passed, rather than language found in psychic readings but experiencing was first described in one giving up on Martin and her Clarion filled with right-wing political content. of the classic books of social psychol- guardians, many group members ac- Often these communications employed ogy, When Prophecy Fails: A Social and tually strengthened their belief and

22 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer QAnon supporter at the Million MAGA March in Washington, D.C., on November 14, 2020. (Credit: Elvert Barnes on Flickr) accelerated their proselytizing. Given As an indication of their commitment, brought it to Trump rallies. In the case this outcome, what can we expect from many quit their jobs and gave away their of the January 6 rally and siege, many QAnon, whose leader has now been de- possessions as the date of deliverance traveled long distances during a pan- posed? Might they somehow strengthen approached. The prediction was very demic to be there. Some have undoubt- their belief in QAnon conspiracy the- clearly disconfirmed when no spaceship edly endured the ridicule and rejection ories? As psychologist Chris French appeared and the world did not end, of family members and friends. outlined in an article for Skeptic (U.K.), and some members of the group began So, given that all the other factors Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter iden- to express doubts and drifted away. But are present, the presence or absence tified five conditions that make this those who had sufficient social support of social support is probably the most kind of redoubling of belief possible from members of Martin’s group re- important factor. If QAnon enthusiasts (Festinger et al. 1956, 216): mained attached and, in some cases, ac- have sufficient social support for their • There must be conviction. tually increased their efforts at promo- views, they will carry on, and it is quite • There must be commitment to this tion and recruitment of new members. likely that many do. Unlike Martin’s fol- conviction. All this leads us to the question: lowers, the QAnon faithful have access • The conviction must be amenable Now that the QAnon group’s most to the internet. If they can find no sup- to unequivocal disconfirmation. important prophecy has failed, will port for their views in their immediate • Such unequivocal disconfirmation they become disillusioned, more com- real-world social environment, they will must occur. mitted, or neither? A quick look at the always be able to find each other in the • Social support must be available five conditions that Festinger and his virtual world. subsequent to the disconfirmation. colleagues identified shows that most, Q’s posts first appeared on the 4chan if not all, are present for the QAnon bulletin board, migrating to 8chan, and In the case of Martin’s followers, they faithful. Many sincerely believe all these finally to 8kun (Paul et al. 2021). Since strongly believed they were going to be crazy theories and have made significant December 8, 2020, the day before the saved by a spaceship that would take commitments to the cause. They have last state certified its 2020 election them away before the floodwaters rose. purchased QAnon paraphernalia and results, Q has been silent (Stark and

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 23 Trump supporters in a boat parade in San Diego, California. (Source: Pixabay.)

Cohen 2020). Furthermore, all the have a powerful effect on the move- and MAGA hats were everywhere, and usual bulletin boards Q has used have ment: Donald Trump. at the height of the violence, enormous been shut down. Following the siege Trump banners were draped from the of the U.S. Capitol, these toxic web- The Trump Effect exterior walls of the Capitol. sites—which have been connected to Donald Trump is a unique phenom- QAnon was not the only fringe group the deadly white nationalist attacks in enon in American politics in at least in attendance on January 6, and it may Christchurch, New Zealand, and El three ways. First, he has become part of not have even been the most important Paso, Texas, as well as the attack on the identities of many of his followers. the Capitol—lost their hosting services group with respect to the insurrection I live in a solidly blue area of New En- (Paul et al. 2021). at the Capitol. The flags, uniforms, gland, yet as I drive around the area, I However, despite the current ab- and emblems worn during the riot run across private homes that seem to be sence of Q and Q Drops, at least for the make it easy to identify some of the permanently festooned with Trump ico- moment, QAnon culture is sufficiently groups participating, and the New York nography. Tall flag poles in front yards developed to sustain itself on the in- Times provided a glossary of them display blue Trump flags. Occasionally, ternet indefinitely. As a result, several a week after the attack (Rosenberg I come across a pickup truck decorated commentators have suggested that the and Tiefenthäler 2021). In addition to like a parade float with Trump posters QAnon movement will not disappear QAnon followers, the groups who par- and flags. We all witnessed the emerg- (e.g., Bowman 2021; Edsall 2021). Sim- ticipated included several militia orga- ing phenomenon of Trump boat pa- ilarly, Chris French concluded, “Those nizations, including the Oath Keepers rades. In my fifty years as an American supporters for whom QAnon became and Three Percenters; racist and voter, I have never seen anything like central to their very identity will most anti-Semitic groups, such as the The this. Of course, in the weeks before an likely double down and become even Proud Boys and The Boogaloos; and election, many people put signs in their more committed to the cause” (French several other more esoteric right-wing yards, bumper stickers on their cars, and 2021). In the short term, at least, I agree. factions. But by far the largest group advertise their political preferences in But there is one wild card that could was Trump supporters. Trump flags other ways. The Trump phenomenon

24 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer is not like that. For many Americans, edge that he lost the 2020 election. York: Harper & Row. French, Chris. 2021. When predictions fail: Trump is more than a Republican Party When there is no solid grounding UFO cults, QAnon and cognitive disso- candidate. He is their leader and part of in truth, any inconvenient fact can be nance. Skeptic (February 3). Available online their identities. explained away. QAnon followers have at https://www.skeptic.org.uk/2021/02/ when-predictions-fail-ufo-cults-qanon-and- Second, Trump has provided a home endured numerous failed prophecies, cognitive-dissonance/. for the most racist, irrational, and an- but many believers will have no problem Greenspan, Rachel E. 2021. Rep. Marjorie ti-Semitic groups in the country. When using motivated reasoning to rational- Taylor Greene’s history of spreading bizarre conspiracy theories, from space lasers to asked to do so, he has assiduously ize these disappointments. The theory Frazzledrip. Insider (February 5). Available avoided denouncing David Duke; the of cognitive dissonance suggests that online at https://www.insider.com/marjo- white supremacists at the Charlottes- some members will endure and even rie-taylor-greene-jewish-lasers-space-conspiracy-theories-theory-history-2021-2. ville, Virginia, “Unite the Right” protest; become more committed to their cause. Kessler, Glenn. 2021. Trump made 30,573 QAnon; and the Proud Boys. White The question is, how many? Dorothy false or misleading claims as president. nationalist groups have operated in the Martin was no Donald Trump. The fate Nearly half came in his final year. The Washington Post ( January 24). Available United States for a long time, but never of QAnon and many other far-right online at https://www.washingtonpost.com/ have they been so welcomed under the groups depends to a large degree on politics/how-fact-checker-tracked-trump- flag of a mainstream politician as they Trump’s next steps. If Trump reemerges claims/2021/01/23/ad04b69a-5c1d-11eb- a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html. were during the Trump period. on the national stage, QAnon will con- Newell, Mallory. 2020. More than 1 in 3 Third, Trump has embraced lying tinue to thrive. As long has he remains Americans believe a ‘deep state’ is work- and sophistry like no other mainstream their spiritual leader, past failures will ing to undermine Trump. Ipsos (December 30). Available online at https://www.ipsos. politician. One of the most disturbing be seen as anomalies or—better yet— com/en-us/news-polls/npr-misinforma- aspects of extremist gun culture in the successes. It was all part of the plan. tion-123020. United States has been the prolifera- Alternatively, if Trump is himself mar- Paul, Kari, Luke Harding, and Severin Carrell. 2021. Far-right website 8kun again loses tion of conspiracy theories to explain ginalized and no similarly demagogic internet service protection following Capitol away many of the most horrific mass leader emerges, I suspect the number of attack. The Guardian ( January 15). Available shootings of our history. Long before QAnon faithful will be much smaller. If online at https://www.theguardian.com/ technology/2021/jan/15/8kun-8chan-capi- Trump was a candidate, pro-gun You- we are to avoid more political violence, tol-breach-violence-isp. Tubers would post videos purporting to this last possibility must be our hope. • Roose, Kevin. 2020. What is QAnon, the viral pro-Trump conspiracy theory? The New prove that mass shootings were “false York Times (August 18). Available online flag operations” staged by gun control Acknowledgment at https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is- advocates and that the victims of these qanon.html. I want to thank Stephanie Kemmerer for Rosenberg, Matthew, and Ainara Tiefenthäler. attacks were actually “crisis actors” her assistance with this column. 2021. Decoding the far-right symbols at the (Wilson 2018). Famously, the former Capitol riot. The New York Times ( January InfoWars broadcaster Alex Jones de- 13). Available online at https://www. References nytimes.com/2021/01/13/video/extrem- nied that the Sandy Hook, Connecti- ist-signs-symbols-capitol-riot.html. cut, school massacre was real, and as a Axelrod, Tal. 2021. Texas Supreme Court rejects Rothschild, Mike. 2021. QAnon: All times result, he is still engaged in a legal battle Alex Jones request to toss lawsuits from QAnon predictions failed to come through. Sandy Hook parents. The Hill ( January The Daily Dot ( January 27). Available with the families of the victims (Axelrod 22). Available online at https://thehill.com/ online at https://www.dailydot.com/debug/ 2021). Although Alex Jones has been homenews/state-watch/535447-texas-su- qanon-failed-predictions/. banned from many platforms and most preme-court-rejects-alex-jones-request-to- Stark, Liz, and Ethan Cohen. 2020. All 50 toss-lawsuits-from. states and DC have now certified their pres- of the false flag videos have been re- Bowman, Emma. 2021. Why QAnon sur- idential election results. CNN (December moved from YouTube, the mental habit vives after Trump. NPR (February 4). 10). Available online at https://www.cnn. of embracing conspiracy theories and Available online at https://www.npr. com/2020/12/09/politics/2020-election-re- org/2021/02/04/963861418/why-qanon- sults-certified/index.html. denying any damaging event has gone survives-after-trump. Swan, Jonathan. 2021. Trump falsely blames mainstream—encouraged by the former Collins, Ben, and Brandy Zadrozny. 2021. Some Antifa for Capitol riot. Axios ( January president. According to the Washington QAnon followers lose hope after inaugura- 12). Available online at https://www.axios. tion. NBCNews.com ( January 21). Available com/trump-falsely-blames-antifa-for- Post, during his time as president, Don- online at https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/ capitol-riot-bab4943c-d465-4d05-ae36- ald Trump made 30,573 false or mis- internet/some-qanon-followers-struggle-in- 1e8d1437f168.html. leading statements (Kessler 2021), and auguration-day-n1255002. Wendling, Mike. 2016. The saga of ‘Pizzagate’: Edsall, Thomas B. 2021. The QAnon delusion The fake story that shows how conspiracy in a phone call with Republican Rep- has not loosened its grip. The New York Times theories spread. BBC News (December 2). resentative Kevin McCarthy five days (February 3). Available online at https:// Available online at https://www.bbc.com/ after the attack on January 6, Trump www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/opinion/ news/blogs-trending-38156985. qanon-conspiracy-theories.html. Wilson, Jason. 2018. Crisis actors, deep state, blamed the violence at the Capitol on Festinger, Leon, and James M. Carlsmith. 1959. false flag: The rise of conspiracy theory the left-wing group Antifa. McCarthy Cognitive consequences of forced compli- code words. The Guardian (February 21). replied: “No, it’s not Antifa, it’s MAGA. ance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Available online at https://www.theguard- Psychology 58(2): 203–210. ian.com/us-news/2018/feb/21/crisis-actors- I know. I was there” (Swan 2021). As of Festinger, Leon, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley deep-state-false-flag-the-rise-of-conspiracy- this writing, Trump has yet to acknowl- Schachter. 1956. When Prophecy Fails. New theory-code-words.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 25 [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of thirteen books, including Big—If True: Adventures in Oddity.

BMI and the Argument from Antiquity

I finished reading your S I article1 on BMI (“Bashing the BMI: A Closer Look at the Skeptics”). It’s a good piece; however, I feel compelled to point out a logical flaw. You wrote, “If anything, the fact that the BMI has been widely used for so long is ac- : tually evidence that it works—not that it doesn’t work.” Data show something works and is useful, not time. The same could be said about homeopathy, mega dosing, acupuncture, Q and so on. —G. Moffitt

The Body Mass Index By far the chief complaint is that works—not that it doesn’t work. To (BMI) is a simple for- BMI doesn’t give accurate readings use only one example of many, germ mula: (weight in pounds / for everyone, and overemphasizes theory has been around since at least : the role of weight in health. … 1815, and no one suggests that germ [height in inches X height Another criticism is that the BMI theory is “outmoded” or incorrect A in inches]) X 703. A score was developed over 150 years ago, merely because it’s been around for of 18.4 or lower indicates and its longevity somehow discredits nearly 200 years. (Radford 2012) underweight; 18.5 to 24.9 indicates it. What would become the BMI As I wrote that, it occurred to me normal weight; 25 to 29.9 is overweight; was developed around 1850 by a that someone might take me to task and a BMI of 30 or higher suggests Belgian statistician named Adolphe Quatelet and has been used more (and I appreciate readers not letting obesity. My article explained why the or less since then. This is, of course, me down), but I think it’s valid. On BMI has been ridiculed for years—not flawed logic: if anything, the fact that the surface it might seem like an ar- by medical professionals, who use it on the BMI has been widely used for gument from antiquity logical fallacy a regular basis, but by others. so long is actually evidence that it (also known as the appeal to tradition), which suggests that something is good or proven useful merely because it is old, traditional, or has “always has been done.” The implicit argument is that, all else being equal, people wouldn’t keep doing something if it didn’t work. But the context here is important: the BMI is not used among soothsay- ers, acupuncturists, or homeopaths; it is used in the medical establishment. It is true that data, not time, determine whether something is useful, but data and time are not independent factors. They are inextricably linked. It is true that now and then a drug or medical procedure is, in retrospect, found to be no more effective than a pla-

26 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer cebo. But when it is, medicine addresses thy, etc.; either the outcomes of interest doctors. No competent doctor would it, and the drugs and treatments fall by (such as blood pressure, pain, or disease) classify a patient as underweight, nor- the wayside and are discredited—usu- clinically improve, or they don’t. mal, or obese based only on a BMI ally within a few years. Because of this, The BMI is different; it’s a straight- score; it’s a starting point, a general medical practices (such as the BMI) are forward calculation, so there’s really guideline, not a strict rule that correctly likely to be valid if implemented for nothing to test or “disprove” about the predicts overweight in everyone. The over a century. I did not suggest that the BMI itself. One can of course challenge BMI’s long-term use—coupled with a BMI’s longevity by itself proves its effi- whether being overweight or obese is a raft of peer-reviewed data, of course— cacy or validity—just that it lends some significant health risk, but that’s a dif- suggests it’s a useful measure of health. • support to that assumption. ferent question and not specific to the The examples offered, such as ho- BMI (as opposed to other ways of mea- Note meopathy and acupuncture, are a bit suring body fat such as calipers, hydro- 1. This article was an online only exclusive different because the argument from static weighing, bioelectrical impedance for skepticalinquirer.org. antiquity is typically offered in place analysis, etc.). Dozens of studies, and References of—not in addition to—published re- several meta-analyses, of the associa- Global BMI Mortality Collaboration. 2016. search demonstrating the efficacy of the tion between BMI number and health Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: treatments (patients hear, “Of course have consistently demonstrated that Individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four conti- this works; it’s been used for centuries!” excess weight is indeed unhealthy. For nents. Lancet 388: 10046. not “Of course this works; it’s been sci- example, “This meta-analysis provides McGee, D.L., Diverse Populations Collaboration. entifically tested for centuries. Look at further evidence on the impact of obe- 2005. Body mass index and mortality: A meta-analysis based on person-level data these studies!”). Not only have they not sity on both aspects of health-related from twenty-six observational studies. been rigorously tested throughout their quality of life” (Ul-Haq et al. 2013); Annals of Epidemiology 15(2): 87–97. DOI: use, but they aren’t as old as their propo- “We document, once again, excess mor- 10.1016/j.annepidem.2004.05.012. PMID: 15652713. nents often claim. tality associated with obesity” (McGee Radford, Benjamin. 2012. Bashing the BMI: There’s another important difference 2005); and “The associations of both A closer look at the skeptics. S between homeopathy and acupuncture overweight and obesity with higher all- I Online (December 31). Available online at https://skepticalinquirer.org/exclu- and the BMI: The BMI is a measure- cause mortality were broadly consistent sive/bashing-the-bmi/. ment, while the others are interven- in four continents” (Global BMI Mor- Ul-Haq, Z., D.F. Mackay, E. Fenwick, et al. 2013. tional therapies. You can do randomized, tality Collaboration 2016). Meta-analysis of the association between body mass index and health-related quality blinded, controlled clinical trials on acu- As I noted in my article, the lim- of life among adults, assessed by the SF-36. puncture, vitamin megadoses, homeopa- itations of the BMI are well known to Obesity 21(3): E322–327.

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Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 27 Roots of January 6 Anti-Democracy Riot Sown Years Ago DAVID HAHN

n 2015, I warned a friend of mine On January 6, 2021, one of the original The seed of January 6—pro-Trump that the newly minted “alt-right” Gamergate victims tweeted that (I’m fascists violently assaulting the Capitol should not be taken lightly. We paraphrasing), Gamergate didn’t cause building in a vain, futile, and ignorant Idisagree politically; she identifies as a the January 6 anti-democracy riot at the attempt to stop something that was conservative and would eventually be Capitol. It was the symptom of the same merely a formality—is in the influence a Trump supporter. She was express- problem that has now grown larger.1 of the political group The John Birch ing amusement, via Facebook, over I agree with the person’s sentiment. Society ( JBS), which was founded in liberal worrywarts who were clutching To find the origins of where this comes 1958. If you are unfamiliar with the JBS, their pearls because of the rhetoric of from, we have to delve back a few de- it was the incubator for the right-wing people such as Milo Yiannapolis, Mike cades. The first inkling should have been mess we have today (Towler 2018). The Cernovich, Stephen Baldwin, Steve the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. The society is named after a man who died Bannon, etc. I tried to explain that they bombing was undoubtedly a fruit of the at the hands of Chinese forces shortly don’t anger me because I don’t agree same seed, only it was more public and after World War II. To be clear, he was with them or their bold style but be- with an evident loss of life. It should not killed fighting Communists, which cause they were dangerous people who have been a wake-up call. The bomb- is what the JBS claims. Instead, it was should not be given attention or power ing by Timothy McVeigh was rooted in likely a misunderstanding that led to his in any political sphere. the anger of the “Patriot Movement” of death. John Birch is a myth to the John My knowledge of them came from the 1990s where we saw a springing up Birch Society. the travesty known as “Gamergate.” of state “militias” paranoid over an im- The JBS’s professed goal was to stop About a year before this conversation, pending takeover of the United States a Communist takeover of the United the online video game community was by the United Nations (or the New States. It was a fear much more real deeply divided. Gamergate is only com- World Order, Illuminati, etc.). This then than it is today, but they were a plicated in that it is difficult to describe, fear of a takeover was broadcast on AM group that didn’t think J. Edgar Hoover, but the events are relatively simple: a radio shows, such as Milton Cooper’s Joseph McCarthy, and the House crowdfunding campaign was set up to Hour of the Time (the prototype of the Un-American Activities Commission fund a series of videos that were going Alex Jones mold we have today). Cooper was going far enough to root out Com- to examine video games from a feminist repeatedly called for action against the munists. In 1958, the JBS internally perspective. This examination was met government, which he felt had betrayed published a book, The Politician, which with a response that only looks predict- American citizens to another purpose. claimed that President Eisenhower able now in retrospect: extreme anger. This purpose was originally some kind was secretly Communist. The claim is I’m not going to go deeply into whether of UFO conspiracy and is reflected in telling because, though we never hear or not the video project’s goal was noble Cooper’s seminal conspiracy theory it spoken aloud today, Eisenhower is or correct. Instead, I’ll focus on the re- work Behold a Pale Horse. McVeigh was arguably the first modern Republican sponse. a fan; Cooper claims to have met him president. However, he would be loudly Along with this original project, the shortly before the bombing, but this derided as a leftist and progressive by victims of this “controversy” were a fe- claim cannot be substantiated ( Jacobson mainstream Republicans for his policies male game developer, who was initially 2018). McVeigh was also a fan of the today. The Society, according to its web- the subject of a harassing screed on book The Turner Diaries, a notoriously site, says the book is the first to expose 4chan and Reddit by an ex-boyfriend, racist and anti-Semitic book describing the “deep state” (jbs.org). If you look at and then anyone who dared criticize the takeover of the United States by a JBS literature from the 1960s, it looks Gamergate. Victims were doxed, ha- group of communist liberals aligned like a list of today’s right-wing talking rassed, hacked, and threatened—all with various races and ethnic groups. points. This is not a coincidence. The under the guise of “protecting ethics All the rhetoric we saw on January 6 current CEO of the society agreed that in game journalism” or “free speech.” with some differences in proper nouns. the modern GOP is finally embracing

28 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer COMMENTARY]

Notes the JBS (Gomez 2017). tank, and you have Goldwater’s rhetoric. The John Birch Society’s most Every time they talk about their oppo- 1. Zoe Quinn (@unburnt Witch): “Hey, if you wanna say GamerGate led to this without prominent effect was framing political sition as “elites,” “the media hates us,” acknowledging that GG was a symptom that debates not as competing ways forward or loudly and ironically professing their has always existed, an extension of DV, and the from different perspectives but as wars love for the Constitution, it’s the JBS failure of online platform holder to act right, for survival. The JBS wasn’t merely I really don’t appreciate being used like that!!” speaking through them. The primary 18:53 06 Jan 21. saying we can do this better; they difference is that the JBS coupled their 2. Miller argues that belief in conspiracy were saying if you don’t align with us, polemics with accusations of Commu- theories serves an ideological and psychological you are going to die, and the country nism—although we still have that today need. In this case, it is both because it fulfills is turning Communist. This rhetoric the ideological position of the JBS’s rhetoric and too. comfort for supporters in the wake of Trump’s hopes that you agree or you will have This brings us to the present. If the defeat. to tell your kids about the time when struggle for survival is real, we can de- America was free. Couple this with bate what we can and cannot do to sur- References a growing conspiracy-theory-fueled vive. However, the struggle is not real. paranoia (Brack 2015), and the result The voters spoke, and once again, the Brack, C.E. 2015. Master’s Thesis: The Conspiracist is Timothy McVeigh parking a rental Style in American Extremism: An Education Democratic party won the popular vote. Based Approach to Combating Conspiracism. truck in front of the federal building in This time, they won the electoral vote National Defense University. Oklahoma City. In McVeigh’s mind, he as well. Instead of resigning to the loss, FBI. 2019. Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very wasn’t committing mass murder; he was the now former president dredged up striking a self-defensive blow against Likely Motivate Some Domestic Extremists to the language of the JBS, of the militia Commit Criminal, Sometimes Violent Activity. the perceived tyrannical government. movement of the 1990s, and his rhet- Washington DC: FBI. A similar theme emerged when oric of the past four years. He framed Goldwater, B., and S. Shadegg. 1980. With No Edgar Welch drove from Salisbury, Apologies. Berkely, CA: Berkely Books. the pro forma counting of the electoral North Carolina, to a pizza joint in Gomez, C. 2017. Exclusive interview with John college votes as the nail in their coffin, Birch Society CEO. The New American 33(1) Washington, D.C., to free the kids kid- and all they had to do was fight back. ( January 9). Available online at https://the- napped and held for sex-trafficking and newamerican.com/exclusive-interview-with- They—having been primed for nearly murder by liberal politicians. On Janu- john-birch-society-ceo/. seventy years as being the scrappy un- ary 6, those who stormed the Capitol Jacobson, M. 2018. Pale Horse Rider: William derdogs fighting a Manichean war Cooper, the Rise of Conspiracy, and the Fall of Building were trying to save democracy against not political opponents but pure Trust in America. New York, NY: Blue Rider by ironically fighting against the elec- Press. evil itself—had to act. tion results. They were doing so be- Miller, J.M., K.L. Saunders, and C.E. Farhart. In May 2019, the FBI issued a bulle- 2016. Conspiracy endorsement as motivated cause they were told by people of such reasoning: The moderating roles of political importance—no less than the president tin warning that this kind of conspiratorial thinking was becoming a real-world knowledge and trust. American Journal of himself—that the election was stolen Po litical Science 60(4) (October): 824–844. by “them.” It’s not just because they threat (FBI 2019). The bulletin received Towler, C. 2018. The John Birch Society is still couldn’t deal with the fact that their guy little traction, and within William Barr’s influencing American politics, 60 years after Department of Justice no action, as they its founding. The Conversation (December 6). lost. Trump’s loss pushed people already Available online at https://theconversation. on the fringes of conspiracism to full were reluctant to act against their sup- com/the-john-birch-society-is-still-influ- belief based primarily on their political port. We know that the riot was not a encing-american-politics-60-years-after-its- belief that the soul of the country and spontaneous action but had been moti- founding-107925. its very existence was now imperilled vated by this type of thinking for weeks. (Miller et. al 2016).2 Skeptics had been warning of this for The JBS planted the idea that if con- years, but we were dismissed as hyper- servatism lost, it was because democracy bolic Chicken Littles who were mis- itself had been stolen. They were hugely taking rhetoric for action. As private David Hahn is an adjunct professor of influential on Senator Barry Goldwa- citizens, there was very little we could philosophy at SUNY Geneseo. He recently ter’s campaign as he railed against the do to stem the religious-like zeal that finished his doctoral program with a dis- country’s subversion by the Tri-Lat- these people seemed to have. The fail- sertation analyzing the philosophical eral Commission—an innocuous non- ure to stop what happened lies in the problems of conspiracy theories and con- governmental think tank that most very chamber that it ended in. Instead of spiracy theorizing. He currently lives in Americans were barely aware existed worrying about poll numbers or anger- Buffalo, New York, and in non-pandemic (Goldwater and Shadegg 1980). Re- ing the rabid base that was already feel- times runs the Drinking Skeptically social ing cornered in, they could have thrown place today’s fear of “the deep state” or group. “the Illuminati” with fears of that think water on the fire instead of stoking it. •

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secularhumanism.org O CT OBER /N OVEMBER 2019 FREE IN QU IRY 43 30 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer How to Repair the American Mind

Solving America’s Cognitive Crisis

GUY P. HARRISON

“Every person we save is one less zombie to fight.” —World War Z, 2013 film

hat is the great lesson of 2020? A pandemic killed hundreds of thousands of people and ravaged economies while people dis- Wagreed on basic facts. Conspiracy beliefs ran amok. Unscien- tific racism surged on social media. Medical quackery enjoyed a boom year. What was the common thread that ran through all of it? What should we have learned from such an extraordinarily eventful year? The crucial ever-present factor in 2020 was critical thinking. Those who thought well were less likely to tumble into the rabbit holes of thinking QAnon is true, COVID-19 is a hoax, 5G towers help spread the virus, racism is scientific, hydroxychloroquine cures COVID-19, demon sperm is a problem, tracking devices are in vaccines, there is mass election fraud, etc. The ability and willingness to lean toward evidence and logic rather than side with blind trust and emotion was the key metric behind the madness. We may view the current year, 2021, as the test to see if we were paying attention in 2020. So far, it doesn’t look good. The January 6 invasion of the U.S. Capitol Building by rioters and vandals was more evidence that political propaganda and irrational beliefs have reached crisis levels. Millions of Americans now seem hypnotized by dishonest news sources, medical quackery claims, social media manipulation, and preposterous conspiracy beliefs. Some unknown number of them are willing to break laws and threaten others with violence. We can passively wait and hope that this dangerous offshoot from comparatively harmless believers shrinks, or our society can make intelligent proactive efforts toward ensuring that it does not become a greater problem. Gullibility, fanaticism, and political trickery are not new, of course. America has always suffered a costly love affair with fraud and fantasy (Anderson 2017). But it all feels faster, louder, and more dangerous these days. One no longer needs to be a charismatic apocalyptic

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 31 preacher with a brick-and-mortar church or a well-funded minds provides the necessary foundation for our growing cri- politician to pollute minds at a steady clip. Today anyone with sis. Minus many millions of people in such a vulnerable state, a Facebook or Twitter account has the potential power to ig- empty claims and ridiculous beliefs could not rage across the nite wildfires of public lunacy. land collecting converts with the ease they do now. The Capitol insurrection was a tornado strike made of I detail the problem of conspiracy theory belief in one of swirling irrational beliefs, a national self-inflicted wound that my books, Good Thinking, and explain how gossip naturally never should have happened. A sitting U.S. president and his appeals to us and makes us feel special when we know some- allies used television, radio, and social media to weaponize thing others do not (Harrison 2013a). Confirmation bias, a some of the most gullible people in America. Key instruments troublesome process even the best of minds contend with, of modern communication could be informing, entertaining, helps cement these beliefs by making them seem logical and and uplifting us almost exclusively. Increasingly, however, they evidence based. Familiarity with this and other such infor- are maliciously exploited to infect vulnerable people with mation makes people significantly less vulnerable. Bad beliefs mental viruses that transform them into either tragic fools can take root in any mind, even one that may be gifted and or dangerously deranged mission-focused zombies (Harrison filled with knowledge. Some conspiracy believers demonstrate 2017). But it may only get worse. The next level of synthetic remarkable mental sharpness and vigor in protecting the video/audio media, called deepfakes, is nearly impossible to nonsense inhabiting their heads. Picture a world-class lawyer identify as false, and an avalanche of it is about to drop on our skillfully and effectively defending a guilty client. General ig- heads (Westerlund 2019). norance, or what some might describe as innate stupidity, are Our present course may be unsustainable. The synergy not the key problems. This crisis grows not from no thinking of increasingly sophisticated deception aimed at unthinking but from bad thinking. masses promises more crippling confusion, disruption, and If you are skeptical of the claim that America is in the chaos, perhaps more than America can endure. Every min- midst of a critical thinking crisis, consider that many (possibly ute worrying about nefarious microchips in vaccines is time most) of the January 6 Capitol rioters were QAnon believ- not spent intelligently evaluating risk and assessing evidence. ers. Going all in with QAnon means believing that a long Every day sacrificed at the altar of a conspiracy belief or at list of celebrities and political elites—including Lady Gaga, the feet of a hollow demagogue is another day lost to possible Bill Gates, Joe Biden, and Tom Hanks—operate an interna- social and political progress for all. tional satanic cannibalistic child sex-abuse organization. It is Our best hope is to attack the source of the problem. But a claim so extraordinarily vacuous that it can almost serve as what is it? What is the real root of this crisis, and what is the the perfect litmus test for the pathological absence of critical solution most likely to work? Attempting to corral or mute thinking. those who promote fraud and bad beliefs will not work. An- other con artist will always be waiting in the shadows, and QAnon is a claim so extraordinarily disturbed minds will keep conjuring up baseless beliefs. The reason our problem of mass delusions and rampant disinfor- vacuous that it can almost serve mation can exist to the degree it currently does is because as the perfect litmus test for the too many American minds are incapable of handling close encounters of the irrational kind. The key problem is that pathological absence of critical America is a nation of believers more than a nation of think- thinking. ers. Therefore, our primary target should not be the few who sell lies and fantasies but the many who so eagerly buy them. QAnon is a movement with no clearly identified founders or leaders and no formal doctrine. It is a big-tent/grab-bag The key problem is that America is a of many old and new conspiracy theories. It accommodates nation of believers more than a nation a long list of suspicions, fears, resentments, and prejudices (Blaskiewicz 2018). QAnon is the Costco of conspiracy of thinkers. Therefore, our primary theories, the Walmart of weird beliefs: “Whatever you want, target should not be the few who sell we got it.” It also has a Da Vinci Code element that seems to appeal to many believers who excitedly search for clues lies and fantasies but the many who and follow online crumbs toward big “revelations.” Despite so eagerly buy them. the absence of any credible evidence and the overwhelming unlikeliness of it all, the combination of fuzziness, inclusiveness, and flexibility is working. QAnon has sucked Vast numbers of people do not know how to think crit- up millions of unprepared minds in recent years. [See Part 2 ically and are insufficiently aware of how easy it can be for of Stephanie Kemmerer’s two-part article on QAnon in this anyone, regardless of general education or intelligence, to issue.] be lured into a bogus belief. This abundance of unprotected According to a recent NPR/IPSOS national poll, less than

32 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer half (47 percent) of Americans say QAnon’s core claims are unquestioning targets ready for assimilation. Those who un- false (Newall 2020). Seventeen percent of U.S. adults—mil- derstand the need to stop America’s slide into ever-deepening lions of voting-age citizens—admit to believing. Also alarm- irrationality must push our society to raise up new genera- ing: 37 percent are “unsure.” Imagine being on the fence about tions of thinking citizens who are capable of identifying and whether Tom Hanks and Beyoncé are working with Satan to shrugging off unproven claims. The American mind can be traffic child sex-slaves around the world. repaired in the long term by teaching the skills and principles As if it were not interesting enough already, some peo- of critical thinking to every child. I am aware of the grandiose ple include lizard aliens in the QAnon recipe (Wallis 2021). and cliché-like feel that comes with citing education as the These infiltrators from outer space supposedly include Queen only salvation from a big problem. But in this case, it really Elizabeth, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. The usual is the way. claim is that they are either shapeshifters or merely hiding Making critical thinking a national educational norm is beneath human skinsuits. This is not how the twenty-first the cognitive vaccine America needs to have a fighting chance century was supposed to be going for us. As a child nurtured of maintaining sufficient sanity. Good thinking prevents and on Star Trek reruns, I imagined our species solving poverty, alleviates bad thinking. Young students can be taught reason ending war, and colonizing other worlds by now. Silly me. and skepticism as basic life skills. This would not be the kind Here I am today discussing a popular belief that reptilian ex- of education that involves learning a bunch of facts for later traterrestrials reside in Buckingham Palace. regurgitation. Critical thinking is more like learning a trade. How can we prevent QAnon and other such beliefs from As one might train to weld or build furniture, one can learn corroding our nation’s collective sanity to the point of no re- how to think well out in the world. turn? Unfortunately, there is no quick fix available. But there Critical thinking courses for all elementary, middle, and is a preventive treatment. Most won’t like it because it’s slow high school students might include age-appropriate lessons and involves a lot of work. But it is a solution, perhaps the on how to ask the right questions when confronted with an only one with a fair chance of success. Playing the long game unusual or important claim; a review of common logical falla- of critical thinking education is the only way to deny the irra- cies (with an emphasis on relevance to everyday experiences); tional-belief beast and the steady supply of victims it depends how to select reliable information sources; a basic survey of on. the surprising but normal workings of a human brain (how Extreme political manipulation, social media idiocy, the brain processes visual input, seeks patterns, why mem- QAnon, and other cognitive disasters likely would dry up and ory is unreliable, subconscious influence on conscious think- shrink to insignificance if robbed of their current deep pool of ing, etc.); review how the “critical thinking” concept can be

May/June 2021 Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 33 abused and misrepresented (many QAnon believers, for ex- of intellectual snobbery. Critical thinking is a collection of ample, urge people to “think critically” and often say “do your down-in-the-trenches people skills that are available to every- own research,” but this means little when poor information one (Harrison 2013b). It’s about doing the work to figure out sources, flawed logic, and bogus evidence are attached to such important things based on reason more than emotion and on advice); historical review of past mass delusions, frauds, and analysis more than trust or tradition. It also means reevaluat- costly mistakes rooted in poor thinking; and discussions about ing conclusions and changing your mind when it makes sense the many positive benefits of good thinking (increased odds to do so. Put simply, this is the conscious attempt to dodge for a safer, more efficient, and productive life). lies and false beliefs while moving in the general direction of Given its importance to individual and national health, truth and reality. There is no more reliable safeguard against why not teach critical thinking every day in every school? becoming someone’s fool or the sad pawn of an empty fantasy. Why not give it the same attention and emphasis as read- This is on us, the grownups. Adults who see the value and ing, mathematics, the Pledge of Allegiance, or anything else? need for teaching reason-based, independent thinking to all Doing this would not preclude addressing the social and children must act. Push politicians, school boards, and parents health needs of struggling Americans. It would not stand in to prepare children for the countless lies, irrational tempta- the way of the need for intelligent social media regulation, tions, and cognitive landmines they will encounter in life. vigilance against domestic terrorism, or general science and What else can we do? The U.S. government cannot outlaw history education. the inclination to believe nonsense. Regulations won’t purge As a parent and former teacher, I have seen how easily the internet of every lie. Our brains are not going to suddenly young students can pick this up. With guidance and encour- evolve beyond their natural tendencies to lead us astray when agement, children can become highly proficient at thinking it comes to perceiving and calculating reality. The answer lies their way through spurious claims, recognizing potential with us. Teach our children thinking skills so that they can be problems of perception, and spotting bias and lies. From the their own editors and fact checkers. Children who grow up in earliest ages possible, children in the United States, and all this century must be their own guardians of truth. But they countries, should be taught thinking skills because it will serve will fall short unless someone cares enough to teach them them well throughout their entire lives. It also just may save how. • our civilization from implosion one day. References Having written several books and given many lectures and interviews on this topic, I know from experience that some Anderson, Kurt. 2017. Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire: A 500-Year History. New York, NY: Random House. people cringe, if not shriek in horror, at the thought of teach- Blaskiewicz, Robert. 2018. Of course, Qanon. S I Online ing critical thinking to ten-year-olds. But these concerns seem (August 9). Available online at https://skepticalinquirer.org/exclusive/ rooted in a misunderstanding of what critical thinking is. To of-course-qanon1/. Harrison, Guy P. 2013a. Good Thinking: What You Need to Know to be be clear, it is not a list of approved ideas and taboo beliefs. Smarter, Safer, Wealthier, and Wiser. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, Critical thinking is the means of figuring out if something 215–229. makes sense and is likely to be true or not. Nothing is threat- ———. 2013b. Think: Why You Should Question Everything. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. ened apart from lies and errors in reasoning. Hopefully, one ———. 2017. Think Before You Like: Social Media’s Effect on the Brain and would want these exposed to avoid wasting time, energy, or the Tools You Need to Navigate Your Newsfeed. Amherst, NY: Prometheus money or risking good health. Thomas Paine put it well: “It is Books. Newall, Mallory. 2020. More than 1 in 3 Americans believe a “deep state” error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” is working to undermine Trump. IPSOS (December 30). Available Anyone who opposes critical thinking education is effec- online at https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/npr-misinforma- tively taking a position against reason and reality. tion-123020. Uscinski, Joseph E. 2019. Conspiring for the common good. S Considering the current American landscape, this is inex- I 43(4) ( July/August): 40–44. cusable stark negligence (Uscinski 2019). We cannot continue Wallis, Paul. 2021. Op-Ed: Biden is JFK Jr in a mask and an intergalactic to fail so many children. They need the necessary tools to be being, says QAnon. Digital Journal ( January 16). Available online at http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-biden-is-jfk-jr-in- able to navigate the increasingly complex and foreboding in- a-mask-and-an-intergalactic-being-says-qanon/article/584035#ixzz6l- formation jungles of twenty-first-century civilization. We owe 4GkXuOo. students better than leaving them to exit schools on gradua- Westerlund, Mika. 2019. The emergence of deepfake technology: A review. Technology Innovation Management Review 9: 39–52. DOI: 10.22215/ tion day as soft targets for con artists and victims-in-waiting timreview/1282. for delusion peddlers. “Critical thinking” is viewed by some as code for “conde- Guy P. Harrison is an award-winning journalist scension and elitism.” This is another unfair judgment. No and the author of eight books that promote sci- one owns a patent on thinking well. No one can keep this ence and reason. His books include Think: Why from you if you want it, regardless of age, income, education, You Should Question Everything, an introduc- or social status. Relying on critical thinking as a matter of tion to critical thinking appropriate for all ages. daily routine is a personal choice. It is the attempt to get most His most recent book is At Least Know This: things right most of the time. This is too useful, too vital now Essential Science to Enhance Your Life. Follow to be left to university philosophy classes or spurned as a sign Harrison on twitter at @harrisonauthor.

34 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Source: Orlowski Designs LLC / Shutterstock.com

Life, the Quniverse, and Everything, Part 2: QManTrafficking and the ‘Plandemic’ QAnon propagates misinformation and conspiracy theories about the pandemic and human trafficking and provokes and glorifies violence. It is dangerous and must not be casually dismissed.

STEPHANIE KEMMERER

Part 1 appeared in the March/April 2021 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. ping of China, and of course Donald Trump in America, came to the fore amid the natural confusion surrounding any novel he cult of QAnon has emerged as one of the most outbreak. Scientists were in a constant struggle to fight the dangerous ideologies of the past five years. Followers virus, the misinformation about the virus, and the outright became quickly radicalized, awaiting a “Great Awak- disinformation spewed by these world leaders. Trump directly ening”T and fueled by a shifting narrative of the “Storm,” awash interfered with the CDC throughout the pandemic and in in conspiratorial concepts. There is no true definition of what July announced that the United States was withdrawing from this “Storm” is or when it will happen, but the tumultuous the WHO. This was thankfully undone by President Joe year that was 2020 gave QAnon followers a treasure trove of Biden on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021. Trump openly possibilities. opposed any safety measures that affected the economy, con- The global pandemic has enhanced the ongoing culture tradicting the voices of legitimate scientists and even encour- wars in America and helped swell the ranks of QAnon. Some aging people to revolt against “lockdown” measures. people already deeply enmeshed in QAnon began to see signs While the numbers of infected and dead rose, so did the of the “Storm” in the pandemic, while those who were open to ranks of QAnon followers. Confusion and uncertainty are the conspiratorial beliefs but not yet ready to jump into the rabbit two main ingredients for conspiracy theories, and there was hole found themselves pulled in by high levels of stress and more than enough to spread around. uncertainty in 2020. QAnon began to find new recruits in the form of an- Even for those grounded firmly in reality, it was frustrat- ti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and anti-lockdown protestors. Bill ing to hear the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Gates became demonized in scores of “documentaries” that (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) change circulated online (and later were removed from YouTube). their guidelines as the pandemic grew from bad to worse to Many had one goal: to convince people that COVID-19 was seemingly apocalyptic. World leaders with authoritarian pre- a hoax and that it was not a pandemic but instead a “Plan- dilections, including Jair Messias Bolsonaro of Brazil, Xi Jin- demic” (see “Plandemic Conspiracy Goes Viral, Sells Books,”

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 35 SI, September/October 2020). underground tunnels. (It leads one to consider the possibility This played into the Q narrative perfectly. QAnon follow- that conspiracists who imagine these things are just as sadistic ers saw the “plandemic” as the perfect cover for mass arrests of as those they believe to be performing them would be.) the Hollywood elite pedophiles. The FBI was, they believed, Therein lies the ultimate irony of QAnon and other ri- using a fake outbreak to keep people at home while they were diculous conspiracy theories: the conspiracy theory destroys arresting John Podesta, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Oprah and denigrates the grain of truth contained within it. The Winfrey, and others. conspiracy theory becomes a conspiracy by distracting us from Obviously, none of this makes any sense whatsoever. the truth. Bill Cosby, Jeffrey Epstein, and Harvey Weinstein were all Project MK-Ultra was an actual government mind control high-profile people who were arrested without cover of a con- program run by the CIA. But this was not enough for the trived pandemic. If any high-profile celebrities were going to conspiracists. It was supplemented—primarily by a woman be arrested for sex crimes, it would have been done just as it named Cathy O’ Brien, who claimed to have been part of always has been. But every event, even ones that seem ridic- an ongoing mind control program called Project Monarch. ulously mundane, have a different explanation in the world While conclusive evidence exists that MK-Ultra was indeed of QAnon. real, no such evidence exists for O’Brien’s claims. Reports of tents to hold overflow patients in New York The unethical Tuskegee Experiment has been folded into City hospitals led to rumors among the Q crowd that “mole the narrative as well. Black men with syphilis were told they children” were being liberated from the underground tunnels were receiving treatments for their disease. No treatments where they had been kept as secret sex slaves for years. were ever given. The anti-vaccination movement has grasped Most QAnon and Q-adjacent conspiracy theories that re- at this historical travesty and utilized it to demonstrate why volve around COVID-19 come down to the belief that hun- no citizen should ever trust Big Pharma or the government. dreds of thousands of children are being kept locked up and To make these actual events more fantastical than they were— tortured. In reality, there are children separated from their and they were beyond terrible—is an insult to those who were families and locked in cages, but these children number in harmed because of them. It also makes the topic of legitimate the hundreds and are in the custody of immigration author- conspiracies and wrongdoings a difficult one to discuss. ities—courtesy of Trump’s harsh anti-immigration rhetoric. But to QAnon followers, these children either don’t matter or don’t exist. The most frightening aspect of conspiracy theories is that there is often a kernel of truth to them, but these tiny truths are not terrible enough for conspiracists; they need to be beyond the pale. Human trafficking is very real and very damaging, but the reality isn’t even close to what QAnon believers claim. As for pedophile conspiracies, Jeffrey Epstein was an example of an actual rich, elite, hebephile who utilized his connections to avoid justice for years. Epstein was part of an actual conspiracy. But in the world of QAnon, Epstein was definitely murdered—by the Clintons, of course—taking an actual conspiracy and turning it into a wacky conspiracy theory.1 The circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death have led to much speculation online. While the appearance of frac- tured hyoid bones, revealed by Epstein’s autopsy, is typical with strangulation victims, there is no solid evidence that has been presented to demonstrate that Epstein was definitely the victim of a homicide. The strangest aspect of QAnon and their Epstein narrative is their seeming avoidance of the topic. Epstein would appear to be proof for QAnon, but his connections to QAnon’s hero, Donald Trump, present uncomfortable problems for the Quniverse. Q has made mention of Epstein only thirty-seven or so times. One Q Drop talks cryptically about secret underground tunnels on Epstein’s island. This is part of the Q narrative: to take that grain of truth—that sexual abuse occurred on the island—and weigh it down with fantastical imagining of secret Source: worthavisual / Shutterstock.com

36 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Some of the most outspoken debunkers of fake conspiracies, such as Mick West and Michael Shermer, are quick to note the existence of real conspiracies and the harm they have caused, demonstrating that one proven conspiracy does not equate to truth in all or any conspiracy theories. Within the world of QAnon, there is further damage being done through the proliferation of these theories. Child ab- duction by strangers does indeed happen, but it is far rarer than the bogus statistics offered by QAnon followers suggest. In actuality, children are most often abducted by a family member—usually a parent involved in a custody dispute—or someone the child knows. QAnon estimates that children go missing by the hundreds of thousands each year. These children end up as sex slaves who are harvested for their adrenachrome and then killed and cannibalized. As forensic pathologists know, bodies are not easy to dispose of, and it would be impossible for even some well-connected secret cabal to dispose of so many bodies un- “mole children,” while the people who are calling for legiti- noticed. Human trafficking is a very real thing, but again the mate help for themselves or for missing children are forced numbers are nowhere near what QAnon states. The reality to remain on hold. of human trafficking is far different from anything QAnon In addition, because of their unhinged thinking, it is not imagines. uncommon to find QAnon believers losing custody of their Timothy Vasquez, an immigration lawyer from Ohio, is children to foster homes or Child Protective Services (CPS). appalled by the rumors that QAnon has spread about traf- In Colorado, Cynthia Abcug, a QAnon believer, lost custody ficking. Vasquez says the most effective refutation of QAnon’s of her son and, along with other QAnon followers, hatched a trafficking claims can be found in the number of T Visas that plan to kidnap him to get him back. are approved. T Visas are special visas available to immigrants In Florida, QAnon follower Neely Petrie-Blanchard shot who have been victims of trafficking, and Vasquez says, “T and killed Christopher Hallett, who was involved in the Q Visas are being denied at an astounding rate.” The denial of Adjacent “Sovereign Citizen” or “E-Clause” movement. This these visas demonstrates that human trafficking is not being movement is categorized as a hate group by the Southern viewed by the government as a widespread threat. “The real- Poverty Law Center, which explains it thusly: ity of trafficking is so different,” he says, with the common At some point in history, sovereigns believe, the American misconception of the “sensationalized image like in the movie government set up by the founding fathers—with a legal sys- Taken. Oftentimes the trafficking victim doesn’t know they’re tem the sovereigns refer to as “common law”—was secretly a trafficking victim.” Vasquez says that the misinformation replaced by a new government system based on admiralty QAnon has presented about the topic of human trafficking law, the law of the sea and international commerce. Under common law, or so they believe, the sovereigns would be free has changed the public view of what trafficking is and how men. Under admiralty law, they are slaves, and secret gov- it occurs. ernment forces have a vested interest in keeping them that Vasquez says that Trump’s inhumane immigration policies way. Some sovereigns believe this perfidious change occurred were “so hypocritical. These policies make it easier to traf- during the Civil War, while others blame the events of 1933 fick people because of the shame.” Victims who have been when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard. groomed and taken advantage of are afraid to come forward, Petrie-Blanchard met Hallett through their common belief especially if they have been trafficked into the United States in sovereign citizenship and is accused of turning on him and illegally. Human trafficking is defined far more differently murdering him when his efforts to help her regain custody of than pop culture or QAnon would have you believe. Traf- her daughters had failed. She had also begun to believe that ficking isn’t always about the sex trade; it can also include he was secretly working for the government. people who have been brought into the country illegally and This is not the first time a QAnon follower has been are forced to work for very little money under threat of being charged with murder, but it is one of the first QAnon cases turned in to the authorities. The common myths about human involving accusations of murder and child custody. In March trafficking—especially the hyperbolic fantasies of QAnon— 2019 in Staten Island, New York, QAnon follower Anthony have “really done a lot of damage for helping real victims,” says Comello was arrested for the murder of Gambino crime fam- Vazquez. Under Trump’s hardline immigration policies, both ily member Francesco Cali. In a photo taken of the shooter at legal and illegal immigrants have had a harder time finding one of his court hearings, he is purposely revealing his palm safety in the United States. with the phrase “Q sent me,” scrawled on it. Comello was later QAnon followers have also caused damage in other ways. declared mentally unfit to stand trial and was remanded to a They tie up trafficking hotlines with tips about so-called state Office of Mental Health facility. According to an article

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 37 years ago but waited until these violent actions forced QAnon and the their hands. As a result of the insurrection, four rioters and one January 6 Capitol Capitol police officer lost their lives. Rosanne Boy- Insurrection land was carrying a “Don’t Tread on Me” Gadsden flag and was ironically trampled to death. According to Snopes: “It’s not yet clear whether the injuries she n January 6, 2021, as Congress gathered sustained by being trampled were what caused her to certify the electoral votes that gave Joe death, or if her death was caused by something else, Biden the presidency, a violent insurrection such as a medical emergency, which might also have took place at the U.S. Capitol. Fueled by a speech O prompted her to fall to the ground” (https://www. President Trump gave shortly beforehand, a mob snopes.com/fact-check/rosanne-boyland-trampled- consisting of well-armed militia members, QAnon flag/). Another woman, Ashli Babbitt, died after supporters, white supremacists, and MAGA Trump being shot in the neck while trying to climb through supporters stormed into the Capitol with minimal a door with smashed glass inside the Capitol build- effort. Recent reports suggest that this event might ing. Babbitt was a hardcore QAnon supporter. Capi- have literally been an “inside job.” Lauren Boebert, a tol Police Officer Brian Sicknick died in the hospital U.S. Representative from Colorado, was live Tweet- from injuries he sustained from the insurrectionists. ing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s location during the Two other deaths were attributed to “medical emer- event. Boebert had made announcements prior to the insurrection that she was planning on bringing her gencies.” Three days after the riots, another Capitol gun to the Capitol that day and declared that day to police officer, Howard Liebengood Jr., who had been be 1776. Boebert is friendly with the QAnon crowd, present at the event, took his own life. and questions still surround her involvement in the Boyland and Babbitt fell into the rabbit hole and attack on our democratic process. Claims were made believed in QAnon so strongly that they ultimately that she was seen giving an unofficial tour to people died for it. They died for a fabricated lie because it wearing MAGA hats and shirts the day before the had become their own reality. Make no mistake: they insurrection. were traitors to this country and our constitution, but The most notable character from this incident that does not mean we cannot look sadly upon their was Jake Angeli, The Q Shaman, with his trademark demise and see it as an immense tragedy. In the wake LARPing Viking helmet and makeup. He has been a of the events of that day, Q remains quiet. Without big name in what has been referred to as “the QAnon Trump or Q, some of the QAnon followers were re- extended universe” by the hosts of the QAnon Anony- structuring their narrative to claim Biden is Trump mous podcast who have encountered him at multiple in disguise after undergoing surgery similar to that in QAnon rallies and events prior to January 6. the film Face/Off. Others started to post online about This event demonstrated to the broader Ameri- their doubts, and some were coming to their senses. can populace what researchers into QAnon have been But it is generally agreed that QAnon is not dead and saying for years: QAnon followers are a dangerous, may in fact persist for quite some time, reminding us extremist group with high motivations and unques- once again of the sign cult leader Jim Jones had in tioning faith; they were willing to do anything—even his quarters in Guyana, borrowed from George San- commit acts of violence and treason—to keep Trump tayana: “Those who do not remember the past are in office. In typical fashion, social media platforms condemned to repeat it.” responded too late. They could have helped stop this —Stephanie Kemmerer

published in The Intelligencer, filings from his defense attorney The seventeen-year-old who shot and killed two people state that “Mr. Comello became certain that he was enjoying in Portland in 2020 is being represented by a QAnon lawyer. the protection of President Trump himself, and that he had It is unclear whether or not the shooter himself is a QAnon the president’s full support.” follower, but his attorney, L. Lin Wood, is. Wood was thrust These are just three examples of the violence QAnon pro- into the spotlight after the 2020 election. The motive behind vokes and glorifies. While all three perpetrators are currently the murders appears to be related to racist ideology rather jailed, another Q-related murderer has been released on bail than QAnon, but again we see QAnon playing a role—this with the help of former 1980s sitcom child actor Ricky Schro- time indirectly—in a murder. der. If you are beginning to see a pattern, it is very real and

38 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer very dangerous—unlike the imaginary patterns conspiracists our own version of “digital soldiers” and combat their misin- see. QAnon purports to want to “save the children,” while formation at every turn. We might not be able to save many its beliefs and radicalized methods of thought are damaging who are already down the rabbit hole, but we may be able to children and leading to murder. stop a few who are curiously peering into it. • Even more astounding and ironic is the fact that 8Chan (now 8kun), the message board that became the primary Note source of “Q Drops,” has been home to posts containing child 1. The phrase “conspiracy theory” is often confused with the word con- pornography. In December 2020, a QAnon politician, Ben spiracy. For clarification, a conspiracy theory is unfounded and unproven, while a conspiracy can be proven with solid evidence. For example, the Gibson, who had been a candidate for Congress, was arrested proven conspiracy to attack on September 11, 2001, involved Middle on four counts of possessing child pornography. Eastern hijackers, whereas the conspiracy theory throws the U.S. govern- QAnon does not save anyone—certainly not children— ment into the mix as accomplices. and it does nothing to help real victims of sexual abuse or human trafficking. QAnon is very dangerous and must not be Acknowledgments taken lightly. It is a shameful aspect of current American con- Special thanks to immigration lawyer Timothy Vasquez for his spiracy culture, but it cannot be ignored. This is a movement interview and to Valentina Restrepo-Montoya of The Florence Project for additional information on immigration. in which followers are so brainwashed into believing they are “digital soldiers” that they are ready to become soldiers in real Further Reading life too. For those seeking further information on QAnon and strategies Facebook and Twitter are finally acting to ban groups and for debunking it and helping followers, I recommend the following accounts linked to QAnon, but this action comes too little, too sources: late. Twitter has been decidedly more active and responsible The QAnon Casualties (subReddit) discussion group on Reddit: https:// www.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualties/ while Facebook falls back into its usual promise to do better The ReQovery (subReddit) discussion group on Reddit: https://www. in the future. reddit.com/r/ReQovery/ There is a downside to these measures: Toward the end of “Trump Finally Gave QAnon What It Always Wanted: Respect,” by Travis View. The Intelligencer (December 29, 2020), https://nymag.com/intel- 2020, QAnon followers began migrating to Gab and Parler, ligencer/2020/12/trump-gave-qanon-what-it-always-wanted-respect. fringe social media platforms that were practically unmoni- html tored and tout themselves as champions of true free speech. Escaping the Rabbit Hole: How to Debunk Conspiracy Theories Using Facts, Logic, and Respect by Mick West These sites have become a slimy stew of misogyny, bigotry, The Cult of Trump: A Leading Cult Expert Explains How the President Uses homophobia, transphobia, fascist and neo-Nazi rhetoric, Mind Control by Steven Hassan (I recommend the Audible version white supremacy, and violence. Now QAnon followers are which includes clips of Trump’s speeches.) The QAnon Anonymous podcast hosted by Jake Rockatansky, Julian Feeld, mingling with the Boogaloo Boys and Proud Boys, and the and Travis View three different hate groups are beginning to adopt each other’s The ConspiracyLand and Skullduggery podcasts, both hosted by Michael beliefs. Isikoff and Daniel Klaidman The Conspirituality podcast hosted by Derek Beres, Matthew Remski, and On January 11, 2021, shortly after the Capitol Insurrec- Julian Walker tion, Amazon, Google, and Apple removed Parler from their The Q Clearance podcast hosted by Jake Hanrahan app stores, essentially shutting it down temporarily. Parler The Freedom of Mind Resource Center, founded by Steven Hassan, www. freedomofmind.com found a new home through the domain host Epik. This Metabunk, created by Mick West, www.metabunk.org hosting company also hosts Gab and The Daily Stormer, an Even the Podcast Is Afraid did a two-part episode on QAnon: “Bad News on American neo-Nazi message board. the Doorstep” and “The Wheel of 4Chan” The Southern Poverty Law Center’s page on The Sovereign Belief System, Scores of legitimate journalists covered Parler, and many https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/sov- posted on Twitter terrifying and unhinged screenshots col- ereign-citizens-movement lected there. One shows a December 12 post from Milo Yian- An excellent resource for immigration and trafficking information is The Florence Immigrant & Refugee Rights Project, www.firrp.org nopoulos (himself a purveyor of hate speech) that reads: “If Thought Reform and the Psychology of Totalism: A Study of ‘Brainwashing’ in you’re still a Q believer, please kill yourself. Many thanks.” To China by Robert Jay Lifton which another Parler user replied, “How about we kill you instead?” Stephanie Kemmerer is a researcher and writer People make threats online all the time, but from a legal for the podcast Even the Podcast Is Afraid and an occasional contributor for the Southern perspective each one needs to be investigated and taken se- Oddities podcast, both owned by Ordis riously in every instance. In most instances, while still illegal, Studios (https://www.ordisstudios.com/). these threats are found to be nothing more than words. But She currently resides in Bisbee, Arizona, and with QAnon there is a more real and likely threat. is interested in true crime, the paranormal, Even though Joe Biden was inaugurated as the forty-sixth politics, and conspiracy culture. The podcasts president on January 20, 2021, and even though Q has not are available on all streaming services. Her posted since December 8, 2020, QAnon is not going away any Twitter handle is @mcpasteface. She wrote time soon. While it is unlikely that many QAnon people can “The Unexplained Files: TV Mystery-Mongering” be talked out of it through logic and reason, we must become in our January/February 2014 issue.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 39 Down with Science—but Why? Public disbelief in science manifests itself broadly. The underlying reasons are manifold.

PETER LANTOS

had lunch with an old friend of mine and happened to ment. Whether it is the fact that part of the population will mention my unhappiness with the situation involving not wear protective masks or believes UFOs are evidence of global climate change. Specifically, I lamented that the aliens, I find myself in opposition to those holding forth on IUnited States had at the time opted out of any concerted the subject. I cannot help but wonder: What is wrong here? action to get a handle on the problem. James, my friend, told The answer I come up with is that there is a common me not to worry because there is no global climate change; denominator to all this, and that commonality is disbelief in there is no global warming. I was flabbergasted, because I science and the rejection of science and disbelief in scientists know that there is a major problem that needs attention here on a global scale, but especially in the United States. So that and now. James is a pretty savvy person, yet he believes there changes the questions that preoccupy me: Why the rejection? is no problem and that nothing needs to be done. Why the disbelief in science? A few days ago, my niece Harriet stopped in for tea, and I Over one-quarter of the world says they are suspicious of inquired as to how her little one is doing. She has a six-year- the role of science, and that number grows to one-third in the old daughter about to enter first grade. Harriet complained Unites States. People are becoming increasingly distrustful of that the school requires vaccinations for polio, smallpox, mea- science; they express doubts about the validity of scientific sles, and some other serious ailments, and she is afraid that findings. One hears popular slogans, such as that the scien- the vaccinations may result in autism for her little Alice. I tific method doesn’t work; science has an agenda; science is tried to tell her that this is a fairy tale, but Harriet is convinced unreliable. Not surprisingly, scientific institutions and journals that her fears are grounded in fact and there isn’t a chance that express their concerns about the public’s increasing distrust in little Alice will be vaccinated. science. They point to a 2012 survey by the National Science I attended a lecture on genetically modified food; the Foundation, which found that one-quarter of the American speaker was a recognized authority on food science. He told respondents believe that the Sun orbits Earth, or an AP-GFK us that such food holds out several advantages and that it is poll (Medrigal 2014), which noted that half of the popula- perfectly safe for human consumption. The young man sitting tion does not believe in the big bang and that four out of next to me muttered under his breath: “Absolute nonsense. ten American adults doubt evolution. And there is a large GM food should not be eaten.” following of those who believe the earth is flat. I have to ask myself: Am I completely out of touch, or is So, again: Why is it that so many Americans reject sci- the rest of the world? Admittedly, I have dealt here with a entific findings and theories? Once I began to examine this, small segment of the population, but it seems to be represen- I noted that there is no single explanation. The underlying tative of a much larger one, one with which I am in disagree- causes are, regrettably, manifold.

40 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer One basic reason: we tend to believe what we hear or learn trend that started in the 1970s (Tsipursky 2018). And a swath when we are young. The girl, told at an early age that sex of recent research conducted by social and political psychol- is a necessary evil, will most likely grow up acting on that ogists has consistently shown that climate-change denial in belief. In elementary school in Hungary, we were often re- particular is typically found among those on the conservative minded that the residents of neighboring Romania were dirty side of the political spectrum (Dunlap et al. 2016; McCright peasants whose animals lived with them in their houses; I and Dunlap 2011). believed that for a long time. So a child, whose mother had However, there is still more to science denial. Religion can a bad encounter with vaccination (her niece was vaccinated play a role. Throughout history, religion has frequently stood for measles and subsequently developed mumps) and therein the way of science to maintain the status quo, so as not fore informs everyone in sight, including her children, that to be confronted or accosted. Galileo was accused of heresy vaccination is evil, that child—as an adult—will likely believe because he opposed the teaching of the Church that Earth is someone who proclaims that there are untold evils associated at the center of the universe. Where some religions date Earth with vaccination, including becoming autistic. And the child as a few thousand years old, scientific evidence suggests more growing up in a family where the father proclaims that the like billions of years as its real age. But if your religion taught earth is flat will probably believe that as well. the former, you might be reluctant to admit to the latter. If The impressionable child believes and acts on what he or religion has taught that humanity began with Adam and Eve, she encountered, saw, heard, and was taught during the for- it will be difficult to accept the theory of evolution. If you have mative years. If, as part of being opposed to vaccination, that moral concern about the naturalness of vaccination, you will family has developed a distrust for science, that child is likely reject information about its beneficial effects. Challenging an to become an adult with disbelief in science—and that disbe- existing, embedded belief and being confronted with an un- lief can be firm. According to Leon Festinger, a man with a wanted truth result in rationalizing disbelief in science. conviction is a hard man to change (Mooney 2011). Tell him you disagree, and he turns away. Show him facts or figures, Challenging an existing, embedded and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic, and he fails belief and being confronted with an to see your point. Related to the influence of childhood environment is peer unwanted truth result in rationalizing pressure. Many people, if not most, crave approval, especially disbelief in science. approval by one’s peers. Whether it is a young boy who wants to fit in or an adult whose buddies proclaim that global warning is a hoax, there is a universal desire, conscious or subcon- Having a vested interest in a position has also been a major scious, to be part of the team, to go along with the group. factor in denying science. The person who denies global Indeed, there’s a sense in which science denial could be warming and the idea that it is largely man-made finds that considered rational in certain conservative communities, ex- this science is an inconvenient truth. It is inconvenient for plains Yale’s Dan Kahan (Mooney 2011). Holding certain be- those who own a coal mine or work in one. It is inconvenient liefs is a condition of belonging to cultural groups. Adopting for the real estate agent who cannot sell property in an en- a position contrary to your peer group can threaten your so- dangered region. It is inconvenient for those who produce or cial status while having little effect on the collective opinion. refine oil, ship oil products, or even use any of the fossil fuels. People who say “I think there’s something to climate change” The fossil fuels have worked well and are affordable. Why will be marked as a certain kind of person, and their life is rock the boat? The change to renewable source fuels will cost going to go less well in their community. A study by Kahan money, and that is not just inconvenient but to some unaf- (2015) found that what people say they believe about global fordable. It is easier to deny global warming than to make this warming is not a measure of how much they know or even major change. Avarice, personal pride, and greed can combine how worried they are about it; it is instead an expression of to deny science. their cultural identities. If on top of that a celebrity endorses A confirmed smoker has a vested interest in not accepting a belief, that helps seal the deal. Those who believe that vacci- the science that smoking causes lung cancer because he would nation is dangerous are supported in this by environmentalists have to give up smoking. such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Hollywood celebrities such While none of this rejection of science makes sense, one as Jim Carrey and Jenny McCarthy, and this makes it easy to of the worst offenders is in the case of COVID-19. Science take a position against vaccination. has pointed to a clear path for control of the pandemic, and Political ideology is seen by many researchers as a signif- there have been understandable, though wrong, reasons for icant culprit of science denial. In Russia, biologist Nikolay its rejection: Vavilov was denounced, persecuted, banned, and starved “You must wear masks!” If a political leader rejects that, to death for espousing genetics, which did not fit with the many followers will do likewise. And if someone thinks that then-accepted politics of the Soviet Union. Sociologist Gor- the mask makes them look silly, not only will they not wear don Gauchat has shown that political conservatives in the the mask but they will conjure up scenarios that the mask is United States have become more distrusting of science, a harmful.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 41 “Keep social distance!” A significant number fall back on are able to point to a personal experience, provide false testi- good old American freedom. Nobody is going to tell them mony, create stories, or form a nonbeliever group in pursuit of what to do. They proudly proclaim that maybe the masks are financial gain. Even the news media can be participants here: okay, but they will not be told whether to wear masks or not they have a natural tendency to give attention to mavericks, and whether to stay far from others. Maybe distancing is ben- naysayers, and professional controversialists, and some would eficial, but don’t tell them what to do or how to behave. After also have you believe that science is full of shocking discover- all, this is a free country! Also, most of the participants in the ies made by lone geniuses. crowded events are relatively young, and they feel invincible; There is at least one more factor to consider: the scien- the virus is for others, not for them. To not be able to interact tists themselves. One of the most worrying causes of disbelief with a bunch of buddies, have a pajama party, or have a beer in science is Americans’ lack of trust in the scientists. The with the gang is too much to ask. Not only that, but doesn’t scientists do contribute to the disbelief, though unintention- the U.S. Constitution guarantee the right to assembly? They ally. For one thing, some are prickly, and some are difficult to feel that they have a limited time to “do their thing,” virus and understand, because they talk the language of science rather science be damned. There is also another undercurrent: if the than the language of the public. This is a major problem. An- leadership does not wear masks, people will demonstrate their other issue is that the source of funding of their studies may support of the leader by also not wearing masks. All these have a seeming conflict of interest—indeed sometimes a real make it easy to ignore the counsel of the scientists. conflict—and the public may conclude that all studies entail The leadership, e.g., the government, has some of the conflicts of interest. The news media, to gain readership, will world’s best medical scientists who have been very direct emphasize these conflicts, and this will result in further ero- with advice: wear masks and observe social distancing. Why sion of the scientists’ credibility. The result: when someone then did the leaders of the previous administration choose to is unable to attack the scientific finding, they will attack the ignore this advice? To reject the science regarding the correct scientist. course of action? There are numerous reasons for disbelief in scientific Initially, the Trump administration underestimated the findings. Some reasons are inherent in human behavior and pandemic. The first proclamations were to the effect that it is human psychology; some in vested interests, greed, and pride; a minor inconvenience and that just a few people were getting some in political ideology or religion. And if none of that the virus. When it turned out that large numbers were getting works, one can always attack the messenger. the virus, the government proclaimed that it will all soon blow Understanding why people distrust science will go a long over. With that kind of a record, how could the officials then way toward understanding what needs to be done for people acknowledge the magnitude of the pandemic by observing to take science seriously. Several sociologists have recom- the cautioning of the medical scientists? The only thing a mended at least one way of ameliorating this problem: Do not self-confident official could do was to minimize it and pro- try to out-argue the disbelievers, present “the truth,” or pres- claim that no special steps are needed to protect either self or ent citations for one’s scientifically correct position. Instead, others. The result: rejection of wearing masks and social dis- engage the other party in genuine dialogue. To explore their tancing. The reason: a case of the president trying to save face. position and genuinely attempt to understand it, discuss it and The internet has enabled anyone to be a publisher of con- attempt to show why perhaps it is not scientifically correct. tent, connecting people around the world with any and all Maybe there is hope. Maybe. • sources of information. On the one hand, this freedom is em- References powering and liberating. Wikipedia is an example of an accu- Dunlap, Riley, et al. 2016. The political divide on climate change. rate source of information on a vast number of subjects. On Environment: Science Policy for Sustainable Development 58. the other hand, anyone can publish a blog or post on Twitter Kahan, Dan. 2015. Climate-science communication and the measurement to make false claims about links between vaccines and autism, problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36: Suppl. 1. McCright, Aaron, and Riley Dunlap. 2011. The politicization of climate claim that the earth is flat, or deny global warming. If they are change and polarization in the American public’s view of global warm- skilled at search engine optimization or have money to invest ing, 2001–2010. The Sociological Quarterly 52(2): 155–194. in advertising, they can get their message spread widely and Medrigal, Alexis. 2014. A majority of Americans still aren’t sure about the big bang. The Atlantic (April 21). rapidly—whether true or false or even evil. Mooney, Chris. 2011. The science of why we don’t believe in science. Mother Then we have those who can profit from contradicting Jones (May/June). the scientists. Environmental regulations can be seen as eco- Tsipursky, Gleb. 2018. (Dis)trust in science. Scientific American Blog nomically harmful restrictions on industry, although they can Network ( July 5). be the driving force behind new products and processes that Peter Lantos is a retired chemical engineer. He help in complying with those regulations. In a more sinister has a PhD from Cornell University and spent form, the person who selects a major ongoing issue and takes thirty years in senior management positions a position contrary to that given by science can gain an im- at Du Pont, Celanese, Atlantic Richfield, and mense following of believers (and contributors) and is aided others. After that he formed a management in this by the relatively new social media that make it easy to consulting firm and served for twenty-five disseminate information, whether true or false. Individuals years as its head.

42 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Aromatherapy: ‘Healing’ by the Scents of Smell Aromatherapy is just another New Age pseudoscience that doesn’t pass the smell test.

JOE NICKELL

hat is the difference between a scented candle and massages (Essential Oils Academy 2019), aromatherapy actu- an aromatherapy one? Answer: About ten dollars. ally developed only in the past hundred years. Joking aside, ordinary fragrant materials sup- It was advanced by an incident in 1910 involving a French posedlyW become imbued with healing power when—well, chemist and perfumer, René Gattefossé (1881–1950). He when they are sold for that purpose. Aromatherapy is the burned his hands in a lab accident, and gas gangrene rap- pseudoscience of using aromatic substances for claimed idly developed. However, he rinsed the burns with lavender improvements to one’s physical or mental health. However, essence, whereupon healing began the next day. In 1937, he medical evidence is lacking that aromatherapy is beneficial in published his classic work, Aromatherapie, coining that word preventing, treating, or curing any disease—other than by the (“Real Story” 2016). ubiquitous placebo effect. It remained for essential oils to be combined in the 1960s with certain massage techniques (i.e., “intuitive” and Swed- History ish), and this led to today’s practice of aromatherapy as a so- called healing art (Farrer-Halls 2005, 10). Aromatherapy has its roots (no pun intended) in the ancient herbal practices of early civilizations, including the Chinese, Egyptians, Romans, and others. Certain aromatic plants Claimed Effects seemed to offer benefits—for example, peppermint as a tea Aromatherapy’s reliance on essential oils raises other issues. to soothe digestive upsets, myrrh as a spice for burial wrap- With characteristic insight, Harriet Hall (2013), known as pings, and frankincense for holy anointing (Farrer-Halls “The SkepDoc,” observed that “so many of the oils are sup- 2005, 302–303; Nickell 1998, 37–38; Wilson 2003, 17). posed to do the same things.” However, herbal uses do not constitute aromatherapy. Consider, for example, a small aromatherapy kit containing Essentially (pun intended) the use of essential oils—volatile just seven essential oils. Four (clary sage, orange, lavender, and natural oils that impart to plants their characteristic odors— chamomile) promise very similar effects summed up by the foreshadowed the practice of aromatherapy. Whereas ancients word calming (e.g., “soothes, calms,” “eases anxiety,” etc.). All had used the oils in cosmetics, perfumes, salves, and oint- four are said to have “sedative” properties. The other three ments, and Hippocrates reportedly advised the use of scented (peppermint, rose, and rosemary) are billed as “stimulating” or

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 43 “uplifting,” etc. How does someone decide which to employ? (The neroli is supposed to calm one’s nerves; see Farrer-Halls At the same time, aromatherapists promote specific mix- 2005, 293–294.) Finally, Roman chamomile is said to relieve tures of oils for a variety of alleged purposes: to treat every- the cramps and mood swings of menstruation when used in thing from an itchy scalp, troubled skin, and sore muscles to baths, with compresses, and even as “mood perfumes”—all the control of pathogens and management of hunger. One methods that seem indistinguishable from suggestion, i.e., the blend is even touted for its purported anti-aging power (Hall placebo effect at work. 2013). (See also, Susan Gould, “Essential Oils: One Weird Workshop,” SI, November/December 2018, and Lynn Mc- The Evidence Cutcheon, “What’s That I Smell: The Claims of Aromather- Quackwatch webmaster Dr. Stephen Barrett (2001) sums apy,” SI, May/June 1996.) up the evidence: “Pleasant odors can be enjoyable and may enhance people’s efforts to relax. However, there is no evi- Power of Suggestion dence that aromatherapy products provide the health bene- Countless beneficial uses for aromatherapy are claimed, and fits claimed by their proponents.” two main mechanisms are cited to explain the purported Good medical evidence is lacking to show that aroma- effects: (1) how aromas affect the brain’s limbic system therapy can either cure or prevent a single disease. In 2015, (which deals with emotions, memories, and stimulation), Australia’s Department of Health published a review of “al- and (2) direct pharmacological effects of the applied essen- ternative” therapies, seeking to find whether they were suit- tial oils (“Aromatherapy” 2019). However, I believe we able for health insurance coverage. Aromatherapy was one of must add one more: body massage, because that is the main seventeen evaluated therapies that lacked clear evidence of method (in addition to aerial diffusion, direct inhalation, effectiveness. Many other reviews likewise report an absence baths, etc.) by which essential oils are applied. The massage of evidence for aromatherapy as a treatment. Large, well-de- itself may have a soothing, stimulating, or other effect that signed, suitably randomized, and controlled trials are lacking. is equal to or greater than the effect of the chemistry of the Moreover, there are studies showing that some essential oils oil or the mere fact of its application. According to Farrer- may actually be toxic to humans (“Aromatherapy” 2019). Halls (2005, 11, 121), “Massage is the best way to release The conclusion that aromatherapy is simply just another physical tension.” New Age pseudoscience seems unlikely to change. Its theories The use of massage therefore raises the broader issue of and practices—as have frequently been pointed out—fail to suggestion. The Aromatherapy Bible asserts that two drops pass the smell test. • of lavender simply rubbed into one’s temples “relieves head- References aches,” but is it the fragrance, the rubbing, or—as I strongly Aromatherapy. 2019. Available online at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ suspect—the suggestion that effects the relief? Similarly, or- Aromatherapy; accessed July 11, 2019. ange merely used in “local massage and compresses” is al- Barrett, Stephen. 2001. Aromatherapy: Making Dollars Out of Scents. legedly good “for settling digestive upsets,” and clary sage Available online at https://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelated- Topics/aroma.html; accessed July 16, 2019. applied in a bath supposedly “relaxes mind and body” and Essential Oils Academy. 2019. Available online at https://essentialoilsacad- “eases pain.” Peppermint—long used, as we have seen, to re- emy.com/history; accessed July 11, 2019. lieve digestive upsets—does so even “massaged over the ab- Farrer-Halls, Gill. 2005. The Aromatherapy Bible. New York, NY: Sterling Publishing Co. domen in a clockwise direction” (Farrer-Halls 2005, 273, 295, Guiley, Rosemary. 1991. Encyclopedia of the Strange, Mystical, & Unexplained. 302, 319). But are there any blinded comparative studies for New York, NY: Grammercy Books. counterclockwise massage? Hall, Harriet. 2013. doTERRA: Multilevel marketing of essential oils. Science-Based Medicine blog. Available online at http://sciencebased- Again, rose “comforts the heart in grief.” How do we medicine.org/doterra-multilevel-marketing-of-essential=ols/; accessed know? Why, it is “associated with the heart chakra” (Far- July 11, 2019. rer-Halls 2005, 259). Thus, pseudoscience is used to support Nickell, Joe. 1998. Inquest on the Shroud of Turin. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. other pseudoscience. Chakras are (nonexistent) “energy cen- ———. 2017. Claims of chi: Besting a Tai Chi master. S ters” through which allegedly flows the (nonexistent) “uni- I 41(1) ( January/February). versal life force” called chi (Farrer-Halls 2005, 254–262; Gui- The Real Story of René-Maurice Gattefossé. 2016. Available online at https://oilwellessentials4health.wordpresss.com/2016/02/02/the-real- ley 1991, 86–88, 625; Nickell 2017, 20–22). (Incidentally, in story-of-maurice-gattefosse-essential-oils-during-the-past-century- addition to chakras, aromatherapy is also touted to work in part-ii; accessed July 11, 2019. conjunction with crystal healing, astrology, aura cleansing, and Wilson, Colleen. 2003. Heaven Scent: Miraculous Healing Oils from the Bible. Boca Raton, FL: American Media Mini Mags. other “alternative” therapies, including, as mentioned, massage techniques [Farrer-Halls 205, 160–167, 252–253, 263–267].) Joe Nickell is CSI’s senior research fellow and Still many other essential oils may work mostly—or en- author or coauthor or editor of nearly fifty tirely—by suggestion. Of the seven in the kit previously books. mentioned, we have looked at five; here are the other two: Rosemary is claimed to improve memory, for example, when a drop is mixed with two drops of oil of neroli (bitter orange) flowers and “dabbed on the wrists”—say before taking a test.

44 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Creationist Funhouse, Episode Six God the Biotechnologist STANLEY RICE

o God, biotechnology must seem like child’s play. Pre- Other genes occur in a more limited range of organisms. For viously in this series, I have explained how, in order to example, the genes for the enzyme rubisco that functions in conform with creationist beliefs, God had to manip- photosynthesis are found only in photosynthetic bacteria, ulateT all the rocks and fossils, and even the light from distant algae, and plants. Some genes, such as those that control the galaxies, to make a young, miraculously created universe look development of the large cerebral cortex in the human brain, like an old, evolved one. But perhaps his most amazing ac- may be unique to our species. complishment is that he manipulated the DNA of every spe- There is an evolutionary pattern to the DNA, in two ways. cies of organism in the world to make it look as if evolution First, species that are more similar to one another share more has occurred. Take that, Francis Collins and Craig Venter! of the same genes than do species that are less similar, as in DNA is the molecule found in almost every cell that stores the examples above. Second, the base sequence of shared the genetic information telling the cell what to do. Nearly genes is more similar in closely related species, such as differ- every chemical reaction that occurs in every cell of every or- ent species of primates, than in distantly related species, such ganism is controlled by enzymes, whose structure is encoded as mammals and insects. Humans are about 98 percent genet- in the DNA. All the structures, from fins to feathers, from ically similar to chimpanzees; less similar to gorillas; even less guts to nuts, and everything that happens inside them, is con- similar to monkeys; even less similar to cows; and so on. The trolled by the DNA of the genes. same is true of DNA sequences that, while not themselves DNA encodes information in the sequence of the four genes, control the expression of genes. bases A, C, T, and G (let’s skip the chemical names). That is, From a creationist perspective, God made all the different it uses an alphabet of four letters. What this means for evolu- species, and each of them has different anatomy and phys- tionary studies is that, when a certain gene is shared by more iology. If this is so, then similar species would have similar than one species, the similarity of structure of the genes can genes, and dissimilar species would have dissimilar DNA. be calculated by comparing the base sequences. Their anatomy is different, their physiology is different, so Some genes are found in nearly every species of organism. their DNA must be different as well. No surprise here. An example is the group of genes that code for hexokinase, What is surprising is that your chromosomes carry not which is the enzyme that controls the very first step in the only the genes that you use but also genes that have been metabolism of the sugar glucose. This is a reaction that oc- deactivated. You do not use them, but they were used by your curs in nearly all cells, from bacteria to plants to humans. evolutionary ancestors—which, therefore, you had. These in-

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 45 activated genes are called pseudogenes. You could call them bunch of dead pseudogenes into your chromosomes as well. fossil genes or dead genes. This means you carry around fossil And not just any dead genes, but dead genes that more closely evidence for evolution inside your chromosomes! resembled those found in species similar to you than in species dif- One interesting example is olfactory pseudogenes. Olfactory ferent from you. Just as your genes more closely resemble those genes code for the proteins that bind with and recognize vol- of a chimp than of a dog, so also do your pseudogenes. This atile chemicals in the air. These proteins allow the sense of would be odd, from an anti-evolutionary viewpoint, because if smell and are found, not surprisingly, in the noses of animals. a pseudogene has any function at all, that function is unrelated This is not the same as the tongue’s sense of taste, which to its original base sequence. is limited in humans to salt, sweet, sour, bitter, umami, and Consider the example shown in the illustration below. It (believe it or not) water. When you have a cold, you lose your shows six pseudogenes found in primates. One of them, the sense of smell, not taste. Most flavor is scent, not taste, and we one that is estimated to be 36 million years old, is found in all have our olfactory proteins to thank for this. six species. Two other pseudogenes, the ones that originated Mammals have about a thousand olfactory genes. Mice 21 to 25 million years ago, are found in apes and Old World have about 1,200 olfactory genes. About 25 percent of these monkeys. Capuchin monkeys, being New World monkeys, genes have been inactivated; they are pseudogenes. So mice do not have them. The New and Old Worlds had already use about 75 percent of their olfactory genes. Humans have separated by that time by continental drift. The 19-million- about 850 olfactory genes, of which we use only 45 percent. year-old pseudogene is found only in apes, which are found That is, about 55 percent of these genes have been inactivated. only in the Old World. The two youngest pseudogenes are This suggests that mice can distinguish about twice as many found only in humans, chimps, and either gorillas or orang- scents as we can, whether they are simple scents, such as va- utans. Creationists have no explanation for this pattern, which nilla, or more complex mixtures of odors, such as chocolate. perfectly fits what is known from evolutionary history. Olfactory sensitivity results not only from how many kinds The main way that complex cells get rid of old genes is by of olfactory proteins an animal uses but also how many of making them into pseudogenes rather than by cutting them each the animal has. Even for sets of molecules that both out and throwing them away. DNA is digital information, humans and dogs can smell, dogs can smell them at much just like that on a computer disc. When you delete a file on lower concentrations than we can, because they have more a computer disc, the file is still there. The only thing that has receptors—fifty times as many as we have. been deleted is the little bit of code that tells the computer How did the olfactory pseudogenes get there? The only where to find the file. The file is still there, lost and inaccessi- reasonable explanation is that our evolutionary mammal an- ble to everyone except the FBI. The human genome, just like cestors had and used over a thousand olfactory genes, but in your hard drive, carries around a lot of useless, and generally our evolutionary lineage many of them have since become inaccessible, old files. inactivated. This is because most mammals navigate the world In addition to the olfactory pseudogenes, your chromo- using scents, but many primates rely primarily on sight to find somes contain hidden DNA sequences for hairiness (the food. When random mutation inactivated an olfactory gene, hHaA pseudogene) and for a tail (the WNT3A pseudogene). making it into a pseudogene, it didn’t make as much differ- The reason most mammals are hairy and you are not (well, ence to a primate as to, for example, a dog. most of you) is that a DNA sequence that codes for hairiness But what if you did not evolve? Then it must have been is very active in other apes and less active in you. The reason that God created not just your living genes but also slipped a you do not have a long tail, even though all mammals have

Humans share all the same pseudogenes with chimps, with whom we share the most recent common ancestor; we share fewer with Old World monkeys and even fewer with New World monkeys. From Friedberg, Felix, and Allen Rhoads. 2000. Calculation and verification of the ages of retroprocessed pseudogenes. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution 16 (2000): 127–130.

46 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer genes or else he had to inactivate a lot of the genes that he had originally created. And he had to do this in a way that made your pseudogenes more closely resemble those of apes than of monkeys, of monkeys than of dogs, of dogs than of birds, of birds than of fish, of fish than of plants. And none of this amazing biotechnology is mentioned in the Bible. It is all creationist imagination. Pseudogenes are just vestigial genes. For centuries, scientists have known about vestigial organs, structures that appear to serve no function in a modern organism, although they functioned in the organism’s evolutionary ancestors, which they, therefore, had. Examples include the human appendix, which is an atrophied version of the caecum that is much larger in other mammals. Floral staminodes are also vestigial. The stamens of flowers produce pollen in a sac on a stalk; the staminode is just the stalk. Vestigial does not necessarily mean useless. The appendix might be useless. Chances are, if you have had yours surgically removed, your ability to get along in life has not been appreciably diminished. But staminodes, while sterile, are not useless. They can be colorful and help a flower to attract pollinators. Let me end with one of the most interesting examples of a phenomenon that can be reasonably explained only by Credit: Loraine Thompson evolution. Modern birds do not have teeth, although they may have ridges on their beaks that allow them to hold onto genes for it, is that your tail genes are less active than it is in food items. A beak is, more or less, hardened gums. But they apes and other mammals. Monkeys have long tails, while you do have pseudogenes for teeth. Decades ago, two scientists just have a coccyx. figured out how to reactivate tooth pseudogenes in a chicken. But the inactivation of genes takes time. To fit into a cre- The result was a chick with teeth—the first bird in sixty mil- ationist time scale, God had to put inactivated hair, tail, and lion years to have teeth. The teeth did not emerge through olfactory genes right into Adam and Eve. the beaks, but they were there, and you can see a picture of There is another possibility. A creationist might say that one of these teeth in the February 29, 1980, issue of Science. maybe, just maybe, Adam and Eve used these genes but the Creationists believe that God made all the birds. Some of genes were subsequently inactivated, perhaps at the time of them, now extinct, had teeth. But why do the others have The Fall. Try to imagine this conversation between Adam tooth pseudogenes? Did God put them there just to trick us and Eve: into believing in evolution? “Hey, Eve. Nice tail!” Once again, the conclusion is not simply that “creation- “ You too, guy.” ists are wrong,” which we already knew. Rather, I hope to “And your furry back. It drives me wild, woman!” open your eyes to fascinating new things. Until I studied Even spookier than this is human endogenous retroviruses, pseudogenes, I had no idea that I was carrying around fossils or HERV. Today, there are some viruses that can insert them- inside my own chromosomes. selves into our chromosomes. The most famous one is HIV. In the next article, we will explore another evolutionary Hidden inside chromosomes, the HIV genes can trick your oddity that, from the creationist viewpoint, has no reason to cellular machinery into making more HIV viruses. Some- exist and the adventure that led biologist Lynn Margulis to times, such viruses can get into the germline and get passed discover it. • on from one generation to the next. But if they do so, they are likely to be degenerated. They are still there but cannot spread. They just sit in chromosomes and get copied over and over. They are viruses that your evolutionary ancestors had— Stanley Rice is professor of biological science ancestors that you, therefore, had. HERV now make up 5–8 at Southeastern Oklahoma State University and percent of your DNA, which is at least as much as your actual the author of five popular science books, most genes. Your chromosomes carry not only fossil genes but fossil recently Scientifically Thinking: How to Liberate viruses. Why would God have put them there? The Bible Your Mind, Solve the World’s Problems, and Embrace the Beauty of Science. He has been doesn’t say anything about them. dealing constructively with creationism as a Those pseudogenes came from somewhere. To a creation- college science educator for three decades. ist, either God had to slip them in after he created all the

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 47 A Longitudinal Study of ‘Ideological’ Bias in Research of ‘Alternative Medicine’ A comparison of the published conclusions of one acupuncture researcher during two different ten-year periods—the first carefully supervised and the second not—shows that positive conclusions came only in the second situation. This seems a frequent phenomenon in SCAM research.

EDZARD ERNST

r. Adrian White was my coworker from about 1994 and members of my team and ten years largely unsupervised. until 2005 in the Department of Complemen- The aim of this analysis is to compare these two periods. tary Medicine at the University of Exeter. He be- Dcame a trusted colleague and eventually the deputy head of Methods my department. When I discovered that my trust had been I conducted a Medline search of White’s publications on misplaced, I did not extend his contract (for details, see my acupuncture and selected those articles that reported factual memoir [Ernst 2015]). Subsequently, White got a post as the new data. The endpoints for my analysis were the directions senior research fellow at the department of general practice, of the conclusions of White’s papers. I therefore extracted, where he continued his research into acupuncture for another dated, and rated the conclusions of the included articles as ten years. follows: White had always been an acupuncturist at heart (in fact, P = positive from the point of view of an acupuncture ad- I had never before met anyone so utterly convinced of the vocate. value of this therapy). When he joined my team, he was sci- N = negative from the point of view of an acupuncture entifically naive, and we spent many months trying to teach advocate. him scientific methodologies and how to think like a scientist. P/N = not clearly pointing in either direction. Initially, he found it very difficult to be critical about acu- To render this exercise transparent (occasionally, I was not puncture. Later, I assumed the problem was under control. entirely sure about my ratings), I copied all the conclusions Yet most of his research in my department was guided and and provided links to the original papers so that anyone in- supervised by me. I tried to make sure that all our studies terested would be able to check my judgments. were testing rather than promoting so-called alternative medicine (SCAM; Ernst 2018) and that our reviews were critical assessments of the published evidence. After White left my Results unit, he was able to work mostly without supervision. The Medline search identified 120 papers authored by Thus, there exist two separate and well-documented peri- Adrian White on acupuncture. Of those 120 articles, fif- ods of a pro-acupuncture researcher: ten years guided by me ty-two fulfilled the inclusion criterion of reporting factual

48 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer new data. They were mostly clinical trials and systematic questioned the value of acupuncture. Once he had left my reviews. These publications were distributed almost equally department, White was allowed to work unsupervised. He within the two ten-year periods. Articles 1–27 were pub- seems to have then abandoned critical thinking, and he lished after White had left my department; articles 28–52 published articles with predominantly positive conclusions. were from the time while he worked with me. This striking contrast requires an explanation. It might Considering that one would not expect unbiased studies mean that while under my supervision White published reli- or reviews of acupuncture to generate mostly positive conclu- able evidence and when working unchecked during the sec- sions, the findings are remarkable. ond period, his pro-acupuncture bias got the better of him. In After White had left my department: this first explanation, his “ideological” bias was so strong and 0 times N durable that it re-emerged as soon as it was left unchecked. 5 times N/P However, there is another possibility. According to a 22 times P second explanation, White did not dare tell the truth while While White was working in my department: working for me and, only after being liberated, was he able to 17 times N publish unbiased conclusions. 7 times N/P To decide which explanation is correct, we need to deter- 0 times P mine whether acupuncture is generally effective or not. Those From these figures, it is easy calculate the ratios for both who believe it is would probably favor the second explanation. periods of negative : positive conclusions; they are zero versus Those who believe it isn’t would prefer the first. Attempting infinite. to decide who is correct presents a dilemma: there are plenty Figure 1 depicts the positive and negative conclusions of of articles on acupuncture that suggest it is effective for a all of White’s articles over time. A sample of six of White’s wide range of conditions (Wang et al. 2013); similarly, there conclusions appears in Table 1. A full list of the fifty-two are numerous papers that suggest the opposite (Colquhoun conclusions can be found on my blog at https://edzardernst. and Novella 2013). The former type of publication is usually com/2021/01/a-demonstration-of-a-powerful-non-financial- written by researchers such as White who might be criticized conflict-of-interest-in-scam-research/. (by skeptics) for their pro-acupuncture bias. The latter type of article is often authored by skeptics who might be criticized (by acupuncturists) for not fully understanding the subject Discussion matter. White’s case might be unique, because it allows us an obser- The solution could be to rely on reviews conducted by the vation of bias over two decades. It demonstrates that an Cochrane Collaboration. These are carefully designed to min- ardent believer in acupuncture managed under close super- imize bias, usually include acupuncturists among the authors, vision to learn the scientific methodology. This enabled him and are generally regarded as the most trustworthy evidence for over a decade to publish numerous papers on his subject available. In June 2020, there were fifty-two Cochrane reviews that, despite his belief, were based on the evidence and thus of acupuncture. Of those, only two reached a positive con-

Figure 1: Negative conclusions (in red) were published exclusively between 1996 and 2005, and positive conclusions (in blue) were published exclusively thereafter.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 49 clusion based on more than one high-quality primary study (Ernst 2020). Table 1. A Sample of Six Conclusions from Adrian It is thus likely that the first explanation applies, and White’s Articles White’s conclusions in the second part of his career did in- [P = positive from the point of view of an acupuncture deed lack critical input and were thus false-positive. There is advocate; N = negative from the point of view of an further evidence for this assumption: in several articles (for acupuncture advocate] instance, 5, 20, and 27 from the full list), White seems to 1. The available evidence suggests that adding acu- spin an essentially negative finding into a positive conclusion. puncture to symptomatic treatment of attacks reduces Moreover, he conducted a negative clinical trial of acupunc- the frequency of headaches. Contrary to the previous ture for smoking cessation (49) while working with me and findings, the updated evidence also suggests that there later published a positive review on the subject, seemingly is an effect over sham, but this effect is small. The distrusting his own study because it had not generated the available trials also suggest that acupuncture may be at result he had hoped for. Lastly, the second explanation would least similarly effective as treatment with prophylac- surmise that I have a strong anti-acupuncture bias. This is not tic drugs. Acupuncture can be considered a treatment the case and can easily be demonstrated by the existence of option for patients willing to undergo this treatment. my systematic reviews that supported acupuncture when the As for other migraine treatments, long-term studies, totality of the best evidence was positive (Manheimer et al. more than one year in duration, are lacking. (2016) P 2005; Editors 2005; Ernst and Pittler 1998). 2. 70% of those patients eligible to participate vol- Of course, this analysis is merely a case study and therefore unteered to do so; all participants had clinically iden- its findings are not generalizable. However, in my personal tified MTrPs; a 100% completion rate was achieved experience from twenty-five years of SCAM research, the for recorded self-assessment data; no serious adverse described phenomenon is by no means an exception. On my events were reported as a result of either intervention; blog (edzardernst.com), I regularly publish a growing list of and the end of treatment attrition rate was 17%. A SCAM researchers who managed the extraordinary feat of phase III study is both feasible and clinically relevant. never publishing any negative conclusions about their spe- This study is currently being planned. (2010) P cific SCAM; I’ve christened it “The Alternative Medicine 3. Acupuncture appears to offer symptomatic im- Hall of Fame.” As of January 2021, the list contains just sev- provement to some patients with fibromyalgia in a enteen names but is expected to grow steadily. “Ideological” tertiary clinic who have failed to respond to other conflicts of interest seem to have a more powerful influence treatments. In view of its safety, further acupuncture in SCAM research than financial ones. research is justified in this population. (2007) P As the influence of ideological bias can be so dominant in 4. Acupuncture is not superior to sham treatment SCAM, it is important to know about it. Consumers need to for recovery in activities of daily living and health-re- be aware when SCAM research originates from unreliable lated quality of life after stroke, although there may sources, and funders of SCAM research would be wise to stop be a limited effect on leg function in more severely supporting researchers who are prone to generating findings affected patients. (2005) N that are false-positive. 5. Acupuncture has not been demonstrated to be In the final analysis, research by hopelessly biased SCAM efficacious as a treatment for tinnitus on the evidence researchers is worse than no research at all. • of rigorous randomized controlled trials. (2000) N References 6. It is therefore concluded that, according to the data published to date, the evidence that acupuncture Colquhoun, D., and S.P. Novella. 2013. Acupuncture is theatrical placebo. Anesthesia & Analgesia 116(6): 1360–63. DOI: 10.1213/ is a useful adjunct for stroke rehabilitation is encour- ANE.0b013e31828f2d5e. PMID: 23709076. aging but not compelling. More and better trials are Editors. 2005. Correction: Meta-analysis: Acupuncture for low back required to clarify this highly relevant issue. (1996) N pain (erratum). Annals of Internal Medicine 142(11): 950–51. DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-142-11-200506070-00021. PMID: 15838072. Ernst, Edzard. 2015. A Scientist in Wonderland: A Memoir of Searching for Truth and Finding Trouble. Exeter, UK: Imprint Academic. ———. 2018. SCAM: So-Called Alternative Medicine. Exeter, UK: Societas. ———. 2020. Acupuncture: An update of the most reliable evidence—part 3. Edzardernst.com ( June 5). Available online at https://edzardernst. com/2020/06/acupuncture-an-update-of-the-most-reliable-evidence- part-3/. Ernst, E., and M.H. Pittler. 1998. The effectiveness of acupuncture in treat- Edzard Ernst is emeritus professor, University ing acute dental pain: A systematic review. British Dental Journal 184(9): 443–47. DOI: 10.1038/sj.bdj.4809654. PMID: 9617000. of Exeter, United Kingdom, and author, most Manheimer, E., A. White, B. Berman, et al. 2005. Meta-analysis: recently, of Don’t Believe What You Think: Acupuncture for low back pain. Annals of Internal Medicine 142(8): Arguments for and against SCAM. 651–63. DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-142-8-200504190-00014. Wang, S.M., R.E. Harris, Y.C. Lin, et al. 2013. Acupuncture in 21st century Author photo credit: Nederlandse Leeuw anesthesia: Is there a needle in the haystack? Anesthesia & Analgesia 116(6): 1356–59. DOI: 10.1213/ANE.0b013e31828f5efa.

50 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer FOLLOW UP]

Less Than Nobel

Following an earlier SI article on “The Nobel Disease,” a scientist and skeptic adds to the growing list of Nobel laureates who have taken a divergent view of science.

IAN BRYCE

cientists are only human, and all humans are vulnerable to failings. I have been following with great interest such excursions from the norm for most of my life. SScientific fraud is perhaps the most infamous example. Such is the pressure to get published that many results are rushed to print before (or without) the necessary diligence. Many examples have been reported in the pages of The Skeptic (Australian Skeptics) and S I. But fraud is not the subject of this article. Here I will add a few cases in addition to those discussed in the “The Nobel Disease,” the cover article in the May/June 2020 S I (Basterfield et al. 2020). That article chronicled Nobel laureates who embraced and clung to one or more decidedly “weird” idea with considerable conviction. I will deal here with cases in which a scientist has veered a little off the beaten track but is still using the basic tools of science, where he or she develops a theory many would regard as weird and doggedly pursue it, often still using evidence and analysis. The Nobel Prizes are arguably the highest recognition that a scientist can earn, and yet there are many Nobel laureates who have, later in life, turned to “screwball science.” Why is that? Perhaps with their tenure assured and nothing to lose, Max Planck, Nobel Prize winner in 1918. they can finally pursue some far-out ideas they have been sitting on for decades. Or perhaps it takes that kind of left-field mentality to win a Nobel in the first place. until a conscious mind decides to take a measurement. This The cases discussed here focus on areas that have inter- perhaps led Planck in 1944 to say: “There is no matter as ested me—fertile fields, including the laws of physics and such! All matter originates and exists only by virtue of the reality and consciousness. I have presented on several of these existence of a conscious and intelligent Spirit. This Spirit is cases in my series of lectures grouped under Physics and the the matrix of all matter.” Big Questions. It is odd to hear this from a scientist who was well aware that the universe had been around for billions of years before Max Planck there was any life to provide a mind. The contributions made by Max Planck (1858–1947) to physics included the nature of the photon and the descrip- Sir John Eccles tion of particles in terms of quantum mechanics. He worked A leading Australian neuroscientist, Sir John Eccles (1903– with Einstein on relativity and the classical versus the quan- 1997) explored the structure of the brain and the nature of tum. He received the Nobel Prize in 1918. the synapse, the junction between two long neurons. Eccles Quantum mechanics holds that everything is represented studied the stretch reflex in the human leg and believed that by wave functions that have abstract and nonlocalized prop- the signaling across the synapse was electric, as it is within erties until a measurement is made that collapses them to a the neuron. But most of his colleagues turned to the chem- particular result. ical (neurotransmitter) theory. Eccles designed experiments Some interpret this as there being no underlying reality that finally showed it was chemical, thus falsifying his own

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 51 • All particles carry energy, which would be found missing (or in excess) in our material universe. Was Eccles addressing a nonexistent problem, or was he exploring a real gap in science, which might point to new discoveries? Sir Roger Penrose Even as a student, Sir Roger Penrose (b. 1931) was fascinated by impossible geometrical objects, such as the Penrose triangle (see Figure 1). He inspired artist Maurice Escher to create geometrical illusions, such as Waterfall. His contributions to physics included applying new math-

Sir John Eccles, Nobel Prize winner in 1963. Image courtesy of John Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University.Stuart Hay, ANU Photography. Karen Edwards, JCSMR - ANU. theory, in the best Popperian sense. So far so good. For this research, Eccles was awarded one-third of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1963 for “funda- mental contributions to the ionic mechanisms of synaptic transmission in the brain.” Having thus nicely capped his academic career, Eccles turned to a field that had obviously held his fascination all Figure 1: Sir Roger Penrose was fascinated by impossible geometrical objects, such as the along—the science or perhaps the philosophy of the brain and Penrose triangle. consciousness. He proposed first World 1, the physical world we all know, which includes the brain. World 2 is consciousness and all mental processes. These two perhaps describe ematical techniques, such as tensors, to Einstein’s general rela- Descartes’s dualism. Then Eccles adds World 3: objective tivity. This yielded descriptions of a collapsing star and how it knowledge, which includes scientific theories. could form a black hole. This he taught to Stephen Hawking. His Wikipedia page shows excerpts from his 1973 book Together (in the 1960s) he and Hawking made much prog- Understanding the Brain, and they make fascinating reading. ress, including how the reverse process could spawn a universe But in the 1990s, his theories got weirder. As Wikipedia puts out of a singularity, better known as the “big bang.” it: “Eccles proposed that each of the 40 million dendrons in a But it wasn’t until 2020, when Penrose was eighty-nine, brain is linked with a mental unit, or ‘psychon,’ representing a that the Nobel committee awarded him one third of the Prize, unitary conscious experience. In willed actions and thought, with the motivation “for the discovery that black hole forma- psychons act on dendrons and, for a moment, increase the tion is a robust prediction of the general theory of relativity.” probability of the firing of selected neurons through quantum It is not clear why they waited fifty-five years; the Nobel is tunneling effect in synaptic exocytosis, while in perception the supposed to provide an active scientist with greater influence. reverse process takes place.” Perhaps his other works cast doubts. In my understanding of standard (materialist) physics, the Meanwhile, Penrose’s imagination was not idle. One psychon would have to be a new elementary particle to carry branch of his work became more esoteric. His book Shadows information into and out of the physical world. Materialists of the Mind: A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness would complain this has several problems: (1994) promoted his theory that microtubules (tiny struc- • There is no suggestion of it in the Standard Model of tural rods) within neurons support quantum superpositions. Particle Physics. When the wave functions collapse, this provides conscious- • There is no trace of it in particle accelerators, such as the ness, which is nonalgorithmic and transcends the limits of Large Hadron Collider. computability.

52 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer Scientists and Rossi’s Cold Fusion Apart from these Nobel laureates, there is a small group Reply to Bridgstock: A Note Added in Proof of reputable scientists worthy of mention who have added their imprimatur to one of the latest manifestation of A third article on “The Nobel Disease” appeared in fringe—very fringe—science, Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat cold The Skeptic (Australia) in March 2021, titled “Not So fusion (LENR, or low energy nuclear reactions). Some of Sick.” Martin Bridgstock, a long-time skeptical inves- these have associations with the Nobel awards and skeptical tigator and activist as well as a scientist and academic, organizations. challenged the conclusions of Basterfield et al. in their In 2012, Rossi claimed cold fusion technology, attracting original article and in my follow-up article as well. In an estimated $30 million from investors. In The Skeptic and particular, as I understand it, Bridgstock points out S I (May/June 2019), I exposed this as a that the scientists mentioned constitute only 3 percent likely trick, in which the earth wire was retasked to smuggle of the total Nobel winners in science. He also suggests in extra power past the metering. that some of those listed do not fit the definition of But before the exposé, no less than seventeen reputable clinging to “weird ideas with considerable conviction.” scientists who witnessed demonstrations of Rossi’s E-Cat And third, he says more research and analysis would gave positive endorsements. Nobel laureate Brian Josephson be needed to reach a conclusion. (see the “Nobel Disease” article), when asked whether it was My own opinion is that the Nobel prizes in science possible that Rossi was just fooling people, replied: “Various are intended to acknowledge significant discoveries people think that this is all a scam, but … he allows people to resulting from rigorous scientific research. Thus, we investigate it; they can decide what to measure, how to mea- hold the winners in special esteem and afford them sure it, they can also look inside. [Rossi has shown] … clear possibly the highest regard, certainly above scientists evidence … in regard to the amount of energy it produces.” in general. Their pronouncements relating to sciences Among them were three senior NASA scientists who (as opposed to political views) retain great interest, reported back to NASA that it worked. Dennis M. Bush- even later in life, regardless of statistics. So, when nell wrote, “This is capable of, by itself, completely changing they propose hypotheses outside conventional science, geo-economics, geo-politics, and solving climate and energy.” many people take notice. Perhaps it points the way Two Swedish nuclear physicists who should have known to further productive research, which will ultimately better were Hano Essén and Sven Kullander. Essén is a Swed- reveal whether the ideas are substantiated or not. Ei- ish theoretical physicist at the Royal Institute of Technol- ther way, their ideas are challenging and entertaining. ogy in Stockholm. He has been a president of the Swedish Skeptics Society, sister of Australian Skeptics Inc (ASI) and of the Center for Inquiry/Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. Essén had read Rossi’s reports and commented favorably. buzzing with expectations of solving the world’s energy prob- Sven Kullander (d. 2014) was an experienced nuclear physi- lems. Rossi started offering franchises for licensing around cist and published some ideas of his own on cold fusion. He the world. Investors were queuing at Rossi’s doorstep. was chairman of the Energy Committee of the Swedish Royal To date, Rossi continues to promote his LENR technology Academy of Sciences, which is involved in awarding Nobel without coming any closer to proof that it works … but with Prizes. much critical analysis indicating it doesn’t. As professors of nuclear physics, these two were invited by Perhaps distinguished scientists need to seek the advice I Rossi to view an E-Cat demonstration on March 29, 2011. was given by skeptical magicians: scientists are the easiest to Given the backgrounds of both Rossi and his claims, one fool, because nature does not set out to mislead; and you can wonders why they became involved at all. be fooled by something hiding in plain sight. • They observed carefully and critically and provided a de- References tailed report (Kullander and Essén 2011). They could see no hidden pipes or wires that could explain the ongoing energy Basterfield, Candice, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Shawna M. Bowes, et al. 2020. production. This was widely published, along with media The Nobel disease: When intelligence fails to protect against irrationality. S I 44(3). Available online at https://skepticalin- statements including: “My belief [was] probably … strength- quirer.org/2020/05/the-nobel-disease-when-intelligence-fails-to-pro- ened considerably when I saw and measured how it all works, tect-against-irrationality/. that there is an energy release far beyond what one might Kullander, Sven, and Hanno Essén. 2011. Experimental test of a mini-Rossi device at the Leonardocorp, Bologna 29 March 2011. Sourced from expect.” Researchgate, publication 265060454. To properly evaluate the measurements and investigate the theory, they set up an informal reference group at a meeting in Sweden on July 4, 2011, which included other scientific au- Ian Bryce, a scientist and engineer, is challenge coordinator thorities from Uppsala University in Sweden and a professor for Australian Skeptics. This article is reprinted by permission from the December 2020 issue of The Skeptic, published by the of physics from Osaka University in Japan. Australian Skeptics. This authoritative endorsement soon had the blogosphere

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 53 Luck, Life, and Poker Arthur S. Reber

kay, the first question the reader The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master My- should be asking is “Why is a self, and Win. By Maria Konnikova. London: Penguin Press, book on poker being reviewed 2020. ISBN 978-0525522621. 352 pp. Hardcover, $28.00. Oin S I?” Followed by “Why is it being reviewed by a psychologist?” And then “What does he know about poker?” Let me answer in reverse order. I’ve been a poker player all my life. I’ve cashed in several WSOP (as in World Series of Poker) tournaments with buy- ins (your entry fee before you can sit down to play) of $1,000 and up. I’ve won more than a few smaller events in mentor. Seidel is one of the best poker tor: the luck of the draw, the fortune of poker rooms on both coasts and, until players of all time and has amassed over the turned card. we got sidelined by COVID-19, played $38 million in tournament winnings A surprising number of people be- in a regular “home” game with some (no, that’s not a typo) and routinely lieve that luck is something real, some- pretty sharp opponents. plays in tournaments with entry fees thing that can be cultured with just the The answer to the second is Kon- in the hundreds of thousands of dollars right rituals or avoiding just the wrong nikova has a PhD in psychology from (neither is that). They meet, chat, text, ones. The number thirteen is considered Columbia University, where she worked phone, and “sweat” each other (watch unlucky (many hotels don’t have a thir- with Walter Mischel, one of the more a friend play). Remarkably, within one teenth floor). In China and Japan, it’s influential social psychologists of the year Konnikova has won a major inter- four, and many buildings don’t have a past half-century, and psychological national tournament, is signed up as a fourth floor. Of course, there really are issues run through every aspect of this sponsored player by a major website, such floors, but they’ve been assigned book. I’ve also written a longer and and—as the title suggests—comes to different numbers—which makes you more technical review of the book for know a lot about herself she didn’t know wonder whether it’s the numeral or the American Journal of Psychology. when beginning this adventure. some “four-ness” quality that carries the The answer to the first question is What is most relevant in the world “bad luck.” simple. Konnikova understands the of the skeptic is Konnikova’s approach Konnikova’s focus is on the extent to complex interplay between skill and to luck, karma, kismet—whatever you which people act on these beliefs and luck and is clear on the fallacy of how want to call it—both in poker and life what the consequences are. If you think luck gets “reified” and treated as though at large. Life is a “game” of partial infor- you’re “due” to fill a flush because you’ve it were some mysterious “thing” that one mation. You only know some of what missed on the past six draws, you will can have (for a time) or not (for a time) is going on, only a few of the factors have no chance at poker. Cards have rather than what it is: a statistical ne- that cause events occurring around and no memories. They do not “know” that cessity that plays a role in virtually every to you. Poker, often described as a mi- you’re “running bad”—and they don’t interesting thing that people do—in- crocosm of life, is also a game of partial care. cluding playing poker. information. You know your two hole I suspect that a good part of Kon- The book is a story told, a tale of how cards and the five common cards dealt nikova’s rapid rise comes from her she went from a complete naïf (she’d on the board. You do not know what psychology background. Her disserta- never played poker before and didn’t your opponent(s) have and must use all tion was on the paradoxical effect that know how many cards are in the deck) available information to make the op- individuals who have high levels of to becoming a professional player in one timal decisions—never forgetting that confidence in their abilities often mis- year. She started with a shrewd move: each hand is going to turn on that sta- understand the extent to which posi- linking up with Erik Seidel to be her tistical, mathematically calculable fac- tive outcomes are due not to their own

54 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS]

I suspect that a good part of Critical Thinking about Sports Konnikova’s rapid Harriet Hall rise comes from her psychology back- The Skeptic’s Guide to Sports Science: Confronting Myths of ground. the Health and Fitness Industry. By Nicholas Tiller. Abingdon, United Kingdom: Routledge. 2020. ISBN: 978-1138333130. 222 pp. Paperback, $31.96. abilities but to the vagaries of life—to chance. She found that these individuals, the ones with high self-esteem who are generally more successful than those with low self-esteem, actually perform more poorly when the conditions have a significant element of chance. Because they are used to being in control of most daily situations, they tend to underesti- mate the role statistical, noncausal fluc- tuation actually plays. found the title of The Skeptic’s Guide aid that promises to enhance perfor- The research is within what’s known to Sports Science: Confronting Myths mance by mechanical, psychological, as “attribution theory.” To what do peo- of the Health and Fitness Industry a physiological, or nutritional means. ple attribute the causes of the events bit misleading. I was expecting to find Runners who want to shave seconds off I their best times find it much easier to around them? Do they tend to take a list of sports myths debunked by sci- responsibility for success and blame entific evidence, but what I found was buy expensive new running shoes (that for failure? Do they attribute outcomes much better. It does debunk several accomplish nothing) than to reevaluate to chance or the actions of others? In sports-related myths, but the majority running styles and training programs poker, you need to be highly skilled of the book is devoted to providing (which might really do something to but not fall prey to a misattribution. a very valuable education in critical improve their performance times). And You can make the right decisions and thinking. It inspires readers to look for then there’s tribalism, the instinctive still fail. As Konnikova wisely puts it, the evidence behind any claim they pleasure we derive from belonging to a “Nothing is all skill,” and those who fail hear and develop an appreciation for group, such as the group that owns the to appreciate this often find themselves “the true knowledge and wonder that latest bike or magic bracelet. handicapped by their misplaced attribu- science can afford.” False advertising? Tiller shows how tions—in poker and life. Nicholas Tiller starts by explaining regulatory efforts have failed, how the Can she keep it up? Poker is jokingly that evolution hardwired us for heuris- Dietary Supplement Health and Edu- called an easy way to make a tough liv- tic thinking because of the survival ad- cation Act of 1994 (DSHEA) under- ing. Playing in the world of tournament vantage. Heuristic thinking uses mental mined the work of the Federal Drug poker means being on the road, living shortcuts and allows us to ignore cer- Administration, and how “post-truth out of hotel rooms away from family. tain bits of information. It is practical era” thinking and social media have Before this voyage, she had cadged a for making quick decisions but does made it harder than ever to distinguish pretty good gig—staff writer for The not guarantee that our decisions are op- fact from fiction. New Yorker—so she does have fallback timal—or even correct. He quotes Ber- Failures in education? Critical if she needs it. • trand Russell on the times when instinct thinking skills are seldom taught in and reason conflict: “Instinct … is liable our schools. The internet has given us Arthur S. Reber is Broeklundian Professor to error. Those in whom reason is weak access to a flood of data, outstripping Emeritus of psychology at Brooklyn College are often unwilling to admit this as re- our ability to interpret it. As Tiller says, and the Graduate Center of CUNY. He is also gards to themselves, though all admit it “information is not knowledge.” currently a visiting professor at the University in regard to others.” Clever marketing? He describes how of British Columbia. His latest book is The We seek “one quick fix,” quick re- supermarkets employ clever marketing First Minds: Caterpillars, ‘Karyotes, and wards, and instant gratifications; we techniques that use our psychology and Consciousness. enthusiastically buy into any ergonomic biases to influence our buying decisions.

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 55 The internet has dote is anecdotes, not data). Barefoot running? Much of the given us access to The book warns about the slippery research was done on people who ha- slope: pseudoscience breeds pseudo- bitually wear shoes; barefoot runners a flood of data, out- science. He lists red flags: claims that develop different techniques. High al- stripping our ability commit logical fallacies, products sold titude training? The devil is in the de- on testimonials or anecdote, alternative tails; there are caveats and confounders. to interpret it. medicine, emotive language, multiple Power bracelets are useless trinkets, and claims, and lack of prior plausibility. nasal strips have subjective effects only. There is a whole chapter on how to Complementary and alternative med- They manipulate us into “not thinking evaluate research and what to look for icine? Based on belief, not evidence. too much.” The same techniques are when reading a paper. Another chapter Non-evidence-based practices include used to sell sports products. explains the appeal of placebo products cupping, Reiki, acupuncture, Traumeel, Tiller is optimistic that people can and the power of perception. yoga, cryotherapy, and chiropractic. learn to collate meaningful data, filter Tiller discusses the contentious This book covers a lot of territory it for validity, and reach coherent evi- world of sports nutrition, decrying fad that is covered elsewhere, but approach- dence-based conclusions. As a teaching diets, superfoods, juicing, and detox reg- ing critical thinking in the context of exercise, he asks his students to con- imens. He stresses that unhealthy foods sports is new and useful. It should be sider how they made a decision about don’t exist. The media routinely distort particularly helpful to those who have a significant financial investment, what information about nutrition. A notori- been misled by sports myths and misin- research strategies they used, and how ous study claiming that chocolate helps formation or who have unquestioningly they collected as much information people lose weight was a real (although as possible from a variety of sources. accepted whatever a trainer, coach, or seriously flawed) study that was actually Contrast that with how willingly they friend told them. One of the most tell- a sting designed to test how the media believe whatever a coach or trainer tells ing anecdotes in the book is about a sci- would report a study with questionable them, without asking questions or doing entist friend (who should have known results from a fake research center by an any research of their own. He gives ex- better) who is firmly convinced of the amples of how even well-trained scien- uncredentialed researcher published in a truth of a claim but admits she has not tists are biased, especially about claims bogus journal; the news media failed the looked at the scientific literature. outside their own areas of expertise. test miserably. I learned some fascinating bits of Sometimes there is evidence to support For many years, we thought moderate trivia. I knew Coca-Cola’s original for- both sides of a heated debate, but the drinkers lived longer than non-drinkers, mula contained cocaine, later replaced evidence is insufficient to reach a con- but the research was flawed and doesn’t by caffeine. But there was more to the sensus; once a scientist has chosen sides, actually back up that claim. Evidence is story. After a legal battle, the originally tribal bias kicks in. As an experiment, lacking for claims that organic foods are high caffeine content was decreased by Tiller tried to design three products more healthful. Fructose is not inher- court order. Today’s product does actu- that were superficially plausible but ently worse than sugar, and “detox” is a ally contain coca, but the psychoactive ill-conceived and unlikely to be effec- myth. alkaloid is removed at a heavily guarded tive. He discovered that “no matter how Dietary supplements? Usually not chemical processing facility in New Jer- far-fetched the idea or how tenuous the helpful, and they sometimes have fatal sey. Who knew? science underpinning it, an equivalent consequences. Many are mislabeled or Tiller’s information is accurate and product was already on sale.” In fabri- contaminated with prescription drugs supported by references, and his trea- cating a bogus sales pitch, he was struck and prohormones. Food is better. tise on critical thinking is brilliant. I by how easy it was—and how much fun. Fat-burning supplements are decep- had only two quibbles: he misspells Tiller tries to explain valid and in- tively marketed. Recommendations for James “The Amazing” Randi’s name valid reasons for buying a product. protein intake ignore important factors. as “James Rhandi,” and he likes to in- Among the invalid reasons: appeal to Sports drinks are long on claims but sert hyphens where they are not needed popularity, jargon that sounds like sci- short on evidence. Novel training pro- (critical-thinking, ad-campaign, far-ex- ence but isn’t, appeal to antiquity, argu- grams and products must be tested. He ceeded, etc.). • ment from authority, appeal to nature, also quotes Sherlock Holmes: “It is a ambiguous or vague language, celebrity capital mistake to theorize before one Harriet Hall, MD, often called “the SkepDoc,” is endorsements, false dichotomy, confus- has data: insensibly one starts to twist a contributor to Science-Based Medicine and a contributing editor and columnist for the ing correlation with causation, and the facts to suit theories instead of theories S I. appeal to anecdote (the plural of anec- to suit facts.”

56 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS]

What’s Going On with the Country? Peter Huston

ast summer, the PBS Frontline Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy Theorists and Their documentary United States of Surprising Rise to Power. By Anna Merlan. New York: Metro- Conspiracy aired. This excellent politan Books (Henry Holt and Company), 2019. ISBN 978- Lprogram described important changes 1250231277, 288 pp. Softcover, $17.99. in our nation that led to the unpre- dicted, poll-defying election of a media personality with no political or public service experience, a long string of allegations of fraud, at best lackluster business accomplishments, and little respect or interest in using education or expertise in decision making. Anna Merlan, author of Republic of Lies, was among those featured. Her important book documents how conspiracy the- and promoters in the nation, while cov- the United States and its heavy influ- ories and their believers have moved ering the 2016 Republican National ence by founders from strongly religious from being light entertainment to a Convention. Conspiracy theories, such groups. She mentions Jesse Walker’s national threat. as Obama “birtherism,” were part of The United States of Paranoia, a work Merlan starts by sharing her ex- right-wing discourse and Trump’s rise to I reviewed previously in these pages periences on a journalist assignment prominence. Of course, conspiracy the- (March/April 2015). covering “Conspira-Sea,” a 2015 week- ories have always been part of American Merlan’s descriptions reminded me long “conspiracy cruise.” Her week on culture, and they exist on all parts of the of Ted Daniels’s A Doomsday Reader: a ship full of people who were abso- political spectrum, more so at the ends. Prophets, Predictors, and Hucksters of Sal- lutely certain that incredible things “But while conspiracy theories are as vation (1999, New York University), a were happening just out of sight, events old as the country itself,” she writes (8), work that describes and gives examples were connected just outside of public “there is something new at work: peo- of a widely spread culturally, globally, consciousness, alternative explanations ple who peddle lies and half-truths have and historically diverse “mono-myth” outside of the media reporting were come to prominence, fame, and power that “some day, some day soon, great and what was truly important, and that as never before.” terrible events will happen, big changes these things were on the cutting edge In Chapter 1, “False times,” she will follow, the evil people will be pun- of understanding. Soon, they believed, shares more of what is happening, how ished for being evil, and the good peo- the public would become aware of and it came to pass, and where it appears ple, people like us, will be rewarded for see the truth of the things they believed to be going. “Conspiracy theories tend being good.” now. to flourish especially at times of rapid As she writes: Ho hum. If you read the S social change, when we’re reevaluating That sense of fragility and distrust I, you’ve probably read things ourselves, and, perhaps, facing uncom- are particularly noticeable again in like this before. fortable questions in the process” (15). the mid-2000s, huge swaths of peo- She notes that a prominent thread in ple feel locked out of the political But she soon began to notice that process, not even bothering to vote the ideas, people, and institutions she’d many or most conspiracy theories is that out of a belief that it won’t make a learned of on the conspiracy cruise were they depict a world in which there is a difference. We have a stunning and seemingly invading her mainstream great hidden and not-so-hidden contin- increased lack of social mobility, a journalism assignments. For instance, uous battle between the forces of good profound distrust of “elites and those she stumbled across self-identified and evil, with the conspiracy theorists in power,” as well as a persistent fear of “outsiders” and “others” taking “journalists” from Alex Jones’s Infowars, pushing these ideas firmly convinced what we see as limited resources. one of the largest, most dangerous, and they are on the side of good, exposing Combined with deep inequalities of most notorious conspiracy mongers evil. She ties this in with the history of race and class, all that makes for an

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 57 environment that’s unusual outside Of particular interest to traditional traditional, clumsy attempts at doing of repressive countries with author- skeptics and longtime readers of this science. The UFO community, Merlan itarian regimes and state-run media. publication will be Chapter 9, “The writes, is now increasingly discussing se- Merlan describes how much of the Politics of UFOs.” While giving a good cret projects of the hidden government, modern right wing feels that America overview of conspiracy-type beliefs often tied in with bizarre reports of has largely been taken away from them within the UFO community, Merlan Obama birtherism and other conspir- and their kind. She notes that there is a notices a distinct and important shift acy theory elements. (On page 203, distinct class element among conspiracy within its more extreme members. In Merlan shares that Andrew Basiago, a thinking, most prevalent among lower decades past, the bulk of prominent program speaker at the 2017 MUFON income, lower educated people. UFO believers thought they were conference she attended, told attendees One chapter focuses on conspiracy doing cutting edge scientific research or that as a child he was allegedly part of a thinking among the African Ameri- were about to find hard evidence that secret mission to Mars accompanied by can population. Why do many African the scientific community would not be Barack Obama using his “foreign stu- Americans falsely believe that the U.S. able to deny. The focus was on finding dent name” of Barry Soetoro.) This shift government purposely detonated the and sharing evidence of current, on- in focus on style of claim has caused a levees in New Orleans during Hurri- going alien visitation and offering the great change within MUFON, an orga- cane Katrina in 2005 with the intent proof. (For insight into why this did not nization that traditionally claimed to be to flood African American neighbor- happen, simply read back issues of this scientific in nature. hoods? In large part it’s because, accord- magazine.) Merlan’s book discusses the possi- ing to Merlan, during the 1927 Great But things have changed, Merlan bility that some of these conspiracies Mississippi Flood, the authorities did says. UFOlogy’s current focus, she re- may be and undoubtedly are true. For exactly that, choosing to flood African ports, are people who claim to have had instance, the Russians did indeed in- American neighborhoods to prevent ex- access to special knowledge of what is terfere in the 2016 election and are in- pected flooding of the white neighbor- “really” going on, alleging personal par- deed working to spread conspiratorial hoods. And any discussion of African ticipation in hidden government pro- thinking, something many conserva- American belief in conspiracy theories grams that supposedly dealt firsthand tives tried to dismiss. She also discusses must include mention of the FBI’s with aliens, now coming forth to share the way Russian “troll farms” and bots, COINTELPRO program and the Tus- their revelations. Often these allegedly masquerading as social media accounts, kegee experiment. Merlan also discusses firsthand reports make no real attempt use the anti-vaccination movement and the spread of various conspiracy theory to offer proof; some are constructed in other issues not just to spread harmful elements through hip-hop music, some- such a way that proof is impossible. This ideas but to intensify and emotionalize thing most whites rarely notice. is distinctly different from UFOlogy’s Americans’ responses and increase social friction. She also mentions QAnon— the pro-Trump cult-like belief system based in conspiracy thinking—Pizza- gate, and others. Although a 2019 publication, this work is well worth reading to understand what is happening now. •

Peter Huston, a former journalist and author of several books, has contributed to this publication since 1992. Three of his books are on skepticism and paranormal claims: Scams from the Great Beyond, More Scams from the Great Beyond, and, most recently, Scams from the Great Beyond—The Presidential Edition. Huston lived in Asian for six years and has two graduate degrees, one in Asian studies, the other in ESL Education. His MA thesis was on the history of paleontogy in China. He’s currently researching Chinese pre-scientific concepts and wacky ninja claims in his spare time and lives in upstate New York.

58 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS]

A Skeptical Take on ‘Havana Syndrome’ Benjamin Radford

eports coming out of Cuba in Havana Syndrome: Mass Sociogenic Illness and the Real 2016 were bizarre, mysterious, Story behind the Embassy Mystery and Hysteria. By Robert and alarming: American dip- W. Baloh and Robert E. Bartholomew. Berlin: Springer, 2020. lomats in Havana were under attack ISBN 978-3-030-40746-9. 210 pp. Available in softcover, R $17.99, and ebook. by a terrifying and powerful—yet invisible—enemy. Victims complained of headaches, dizziness, nausea, and fatigue; some suffered debilitating memory and concentration problems, while others reported hearing loss and tinnitus. The only clue about its origin was that a high-pitched sound was heard at the time. The attacks were, understandably, taken seriously by the The authors make a strong case that The clinical diag- State Department; complaints were mass sociogenic illness (MSI, some- lodged against China and Russia as times called mass hysteria) is a likely noses offered in Cuban diplomats were expelled from culprit and that while this case seems support of a sonic the United States. strange and sensational, it’s far from The cause of the maladies, and per- unique: weapon explanation haps more importantly who was behind Many psychogenic outbreaks have are more subjec- the attacks, was promptly investigated. involved victims who attributed their Neuroscientists at the University of symptoms to sound waves. … In tive than they first Pennsylvania discovered concus- fact, concussion-like symptoms have appear. sion-like symptoms that, they claimed, been reported in American soldiers had damaged victims’ brains. The cause returning home from every major conflict since modern doctors began was “an unknown energy source.” Soon, below 20 Hz are known as infra- keeping tabs on troops, from World sound [and] have been difficult to other seemingly similar incidents were War I to the fighting in Iraq and weaponize due to the inability to reported, ostensibly verifying the origi- Afghanistan. focus the wavelengths. The main nal reports. In 2017 and 2018, for exam- effect on human health is irrita- The clinical diagnoses offered in ple, a diplomat in an embassy in China tion. Sounds at the high end of support of a sonic weapon explanation reported identical symptoms. Investiga- the spectrum of human hearing is are more subjective than they first ap- ultrasound [and] are equally difficult tions were launched but found no clear pear; while a broken leg or bullet wound to control as they dissipate rapidly as evidence of any attack. can be discretely verified as a hard out- they travel. Even if the sound waves What really happened is the topic were to reach a building in an effort come, many of the “concussion-like of the new book Havana Syndrome: to target people inside, most of the symptoms” are not so easily quantified Mass Sociogenic Illness and the Real Story waves would bounce harmlessly off and validated. the walls before reaching their target. behind the Embassy Mystery and Hyste- Skeptics noted that sound, per se, ria, by Robert Baloh and Robert Bar- Though scientifically defensible, the cannot physically cause the concussions tholomew. Dr. Baloh is in the Depart- sociogenic conclusion was politically reportedly found. According to the au- ment of Neurology at the David Geffen and socially untenable. If there were no thors: School of Medicine at UCLA, and Bar- attacks, then what was going on? What tholomew is a prolific author and at the [Scientists] were baffled as to how about all the witnesses and evidence? Psychological Medicine Department diplomatic staff situated deep within One reason diagnoses of mass hysteria a hotel or in the confines of a house at the University of Auckland in New could be targeted. Human hearing are often rejected and disputed by those Zealand. (Full disclosure: I have coau- ranges between approximately 20 affected is because of the common mis- thored two books with Bartholomew.) and 20,000 Hertz (Hz). Sounds understanding that these events are

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 59 Though scientifically defensible, the UFO Believers: A Sympathetic Look at sociogenic conclu- Tangled Connections sion was politically Terence Hines and socially untenable. They Are Already Here: UFO Culture and Why We See Saucers. By Sarah Scoles. New York: Pegasus Books, 2020. ISBN 978- 1-64313-305-8. 248 pp. Hardcover, $27.95. imaginary, faked, or fraudulent; they are not. A diagnosis of MSI doesn’t mean that anyone is pretending or malinger- ing; it merely means that the illness has an internal (psychological and physiological), not an external (environmental) source. Baloh and Bartholomew write: This is the story of how much of the world came to believe in something that never happened. It is an extraordinary tale of international intrigue, cience journalist Sarah Scoles’s December 16, 2017, by Helene Cooper, flawed science, political ineptitude, book can be divided into three Ralph Blumenthal, and Leslie Kean re- and the mating habits of two most unlikely suspects: crickets and cica- sections. The first covers the ported the event. None of the authors das. While parts of the story border background of the story that military were science journalists. Blumenthal on the comical and at times are S had written a 2013 piece that suggested pilots had taken videos of flying saucers absurd, this saga has had far-reach- in 2004, videos that became known that UFO abductions were real. Kean ing diplomatic repercussions as the as the Tic Toc videos. Then there is was a UFO promoter. Cooper was a fear and mistrust it has sown has threatened to undermine the future a short section on the Mutual UFO Times Pentagon correspondent who had of Cuban-American relations. Network (MUFON), which blends previously written extensively on trade nicely into a long final section on Area and foreign policy. The article revealed The book provides a fascinating 51 and other UFO pilgrimage sites. a top-secret military program called the timeline of the strange events and their Each section of the book makes contri- Advanced Aerospace Threat Identifica- aftermath, from political finger-point- butions to the skeptical understanding tion Program (AATIP) that ran from ing to medical investigations. Conclu- of what is behind parts of modern 2007 to 2012 to investigate UFOs. The sive and definitive explanations are not UFO mythology. story was “all but a declaration not just always possible due to a lack of infor- This is not a debunking book. that UFOs are extant, but also that they mation and myriad other factors. It’s Scoles’s approach is sympathetic to, and are extraterrestrial. They have landed, certainly possible that, years or decades she clearly enjoyed interacting with, the the Pentagon knows about them, and from now, the intelligence community characters she met while working on the they may have measurable effects on will discover proof that some unknown book. The book starts with a description human beings” (11). Scoles tells the full sonic weapon was in fact deployed of a very impressive almost–UFO expe- story of the origins of AATIP and some against the embassy in Havana. But rience she had while researching the of the people behind it. until then, Havana Syndrome (together book. This event helped her understand The story starts with Robert Bige- with Occam’s Razor) makes a compel- how people can find such experiences so low, a wealthy cut-rate hotel business- ling case that mass sociogenic illness is compelling as evidence for some sort of man and a major donor to Henry Reid, a plausible explanation. • inexplicable phenomenon. Nevada Senator from 1987 to 2017. The first section contains important Bigelow had a serious interest in UFOs Benjamin Radford was coauthor, with Robert information on one of the biggest UFO and all things paranormal. In 1995, he Bartholomew, of an analysis of the role of stories of the 2010s. This was the claim created the National Institute for Dis- mass hysteria in the 1997 Pokémon cartoon that military fliers had captured video covery Science (NIDS), which was to seizure panic published in the Southern images of flying saucers back in 2004. investigate everything from “UFOs to Medical Journal in February 2001. A credulous New York Times story on the possibility that consciousness sur-

60 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS]

vives death … with real scientists, real real science, September 2018 when it was discov- instruments, real experiments” (83). [but] they seek [the scientific estab- ered that the observatory grounds were One of the “real scientists” that Bigelow lishment’s] approval and revere its deserted. Much speculation, amateur put on the NIDS advisory board was authorities: When someone with a investigation, and conspiracy-theory Harold Puthoff, who had been conned PhD or a study in a peer-reviewed mongering ensued. The “official” expla- by Uri Geller years previously. In 1996 journal nods at UFO research or nation was that a janitor at the observa- extraterrestrial visitation, many tory had been using one of the comput- or 1997, Bigelow purchased the Skin- UFOlogists say, essentially, “See?” walker (or Sherman) Ranch in Ballard, When a symposium speaker has ers there for child pornography. He had Utah, an area known for being a hot- worked for NASA or had a metal apparently made violent threats, so the bed of paranormal and UFO activity. sample tested by a university pro- grounds were cleared for safety reasons. Despite all the serious investigative fessor, they say, “So you know it’s But was that really what was going on? legit.” (118) equipment and expertise brought to Was the place shut down because of … the ranch, nothing paranormal was ever In the third section, Scoles visits sev- aliens? Conspiracy theorists think so. found. Bigelow gave up this line of in- eral famous (and not so famous) UFO The UFO Watchtower in the San vestigation in 2004. sites. It is in this section that the book Luis Valley in Colorado, about 200 About the same time, Bigelow spoke tends to wander a bit and lose focus. miles south-southwest of Denver, is to Senator Reid about his interest in These four chapters give a feel for the the subject of the penultimate chapter. UFOs. Reid “thought the government culture of the UFO enthusiasts who This seems to be UFO central at the should be studying those [UFOs]” and populate these places. Scoles makes an moment. It opened in 2000 and “draws “pushed a potential project forward” important point about the motives of thousands of believers, skeptics, agnos- (11), which resulted in the AATIP with UFO enthusiasts: “People also some- tics, spiritualists, self-proclaimed psy- a funding of $22 million. Most of this times feel compelled to chase wonder, chics, and antagonists each year” (193). money went to the Bigelow Aerospace because the world doesn’t have many The chapter gives the reader a revealing Company. surface-level mysteries left” (142). Sur- and amusing glimpse into the goings So UFO believer Bigelow was be- face-level is a key term here. There are on at the Watchtower, the personalities hind the creation of the AATIP and many mysteries left, but to address involved, and the history of the place. profited from it. Another company them, one needs at least some degree of In the final section, Scoles focuses founded by some of the same people scientific training, which many (most?) on Gerrit Verschuur, a radio astrono- involved in Bigelow’s operations was of these wonder seekers lack or reject. mer who doubts that UFOs are alien the To the Stars Academy of Arts and Area 51 is first on the list of sites vis- spacecraft or that extraterrestrial civili- Sciences. Harold Puthoff was the vice ited. At one point, Scoles and a friend zations exist at all. After smoking mar- ijuana, going into sensory deprivation president for science and technology. test the security of the area by approach- tanks, and hearing voices, he came to The Academy had as one of its goals ing, at night, the base’s boundary beyond believe that UFOs and aliens represent to investigate fringe science and UFOs. which “lethal force” is apparently autho- some sort of Jungian myth where hu- Scoles found that many of the sources rized. A few guards turn on their SUV’s mans project “our own image onto the for the Times’ December 16 story on headlights. But that’s all that happens, universe” (225). So “they are already UFOs were from or associated with the and “it’s all very underwhelming” (139). here” in the minds of believers and even Academy. That pretty much sums up the entire nonbelievers. This is not a particularly In the second section, Scoles delves visit. Next is Roswell. There are good useful conclusion, and the fifteen pages into one of the largest contemporary descriptions of the people in town who devoted to Verschuur are far too many. UFO organizations, the Mutual UFO cater to the UFO crowds. Scoles clearly The value of the book lies in the first Network. She interviewed MUFON labels the Roswell story a myth and says section where the relationships between officials and attended their meetings. that UFO beliefs persist in part because Robert Bigelow, the AATIP, and the UFO enthusiasts have been given “a Scoles emphasizes the problems with authors of the New York Times story on precious gift: unfalsifiability” (155), such UFO sightings and eyewitness re- the 2004 military UFO videos are reports—problems of memory and per- that if a UFO report is not explained, vealed. The rest of the book is certainly ception familiar to readers of this jour- it must be true and, conversely, if it is interesting as a look into the psychology nal. She has insight about the love/hate explained, that explanation is part of a of MUFON and UFO believers. • relationship that organizations such as cover-up, so the report is also true. MUFON, and UFOlogy in general, Chapter nine is the about a bizarre Terence Hines is professor of psychology at Pace University and author of Pseudoscience have with science. UFOlogists reject event that took place at the Sunspot and the Paranormal. He is a CSI fellow. the rigid standards of proof required by Solar Observatory in New Mexico in

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 61 Maddox, Nature’s editor-in-chief, asked Randi to join the team visiting the lab of Benveniste to Erratum carefully study the experiments supporting these very controver- In the March/April 2021 SI, we failed to provide sial findings. After a few of the first series turned out somewhat credits for two images. The image on p. 34 should positive, Randi designed three have been credited to Julian Leshay/Shutterstock. more double-blind experiments com. The image on p. 35 should have been credited and ensured the codes were kept to M. Moira/Shutterstock.com. secret by wrapping them in tin- foil and taping them to the ceil- ing! Benveniste agreed with the designs. This time no effects were found. Naturally, Benveniste re- eerily silent, and the experiments My college-age self was fused to accept the findings. were never conducted. The Eleven years later, Brian Jo- browsing in a local bookstore Remembering Randi sephson, a physics professor Amazing Randi demonstrated many years ago when I came again how bright people may be Your marvelous tribute to James at Cambridge, challenged the upon the book Flim-Flam! It blind to other, more mundane Randi (“Remembering Randi,” American Physical Society (APS) seemed interesting, so I bought it January/February 2021) unfor- to scientifically test the claims explanations once they become and read it. Its author made me tunately did not mention one again, and the APS accepted the believers in their own theories. understand that people can and of his magnificent contributions challenge. Randi threw in his Roland Gerritsen van der do lie in print, and it—and the to the world of science. In 1988, famous million-dollar prize. His Hoop, MD, PhD fact that I was a bit of an amateur the French researcher Jacques offer was rejected because he was Exton, Pennsylvania conjuror already—made me a Benveniste published a scientific deemed “unqualified,” not being skeptic. Several years afterward, I paper in the renowned journal a real scientist, a quite common I never got to meet James Randi, bought the updated Prometheus Nature that appeared to support response of conceited academi- but he has been a great positive Books edition and realized—after the concept of homeopathy. John cians. After that, it remained influence on my life. reading Randi’s foreword to the

NEW AND NOTABLE]

Listing does not preclude future review.

SCIENCE AND ANTHROPOLOGY IN A POST-TRUTH THE LIFE-CHANGING SCIENCE OF DETECTING WORLD: A Critique of Unreason and Academic BULLSHIT. John V. Petrocelli. This book is the ulti- Nonsense. H. Sidky. Thanks to a combination of mate consumer protection guide—how to protect postmodernist academics who discount truth or ourselves from the bullshit, utter nonsense, lies, reliable knowledge and a Trump presidency that distortions, conspiracy thinking, and disinformation fomented falsehoods and lies, Americans now live swirling all about us. John Petrocelli is an experi- in a post-truth era characterized by fake news, wea- mental psychologist and professor (at Wake Forest ponized lies, alternative facts, conspiracy theories, University) who studies bullshit, and his book is magical thinking, and irrationalism, says anthropol- clear and blunt: If we are to avoid falling victim to the ogist Sidky. In this timely work, he examines how BS, we must learn how to recognize and decisively French philosophers such as Foucault, Derrida, and Latour fomented bury it using scientific reasoning and critical thinking to seek evidence this forceful assault on science and truth and how Donald Trump, right- and truth. St. Martin’s Press, 2021, 326 pp., $28.99. wing populists, and religious extremists then took this irrationality into whole new realms of public policy. Sidky brings new insights to science —Kendrick Frazier studies, the Sokal hoax, American intellectuals’ efforts to delegitimize science, relativism, how we know what we know, and postmodern anthropology. Chapters of special interest to our readers include “The Problem of Pseudoscience in Post-Truth America” and “Paranormal and Theistic Anthropology.” Rowman & Littlefield/Lexington, 2021, 240 pp., $100.

62 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

new edition—that my hardcover taught me to think for myself. I I am generally persuaded by the copy was a relatively rare book decided that an imperfect barrier arguments presented by Joseph because only 5,000 copies were to viral aerosols was better than Uscinski, but “conspiracy the- printed. I was hoping at some no barrier at all, and eventually ory” exists on a continuum of point to meet Randi and have the experts came around to my plausibility, so whether or not an him sign it for me, but of course view of the matter. individual espouses one or more that cannot happen now. Gandalf is gone. We men and theories is not simply binary. I own several other books by dwarves will have to carry on the For example, the Mueller in- Randi—as well as a small library fight without him. vestigation uncovered more than of other Prometheus Books ti- 140 instances of collusion with tles—and have been a subscriber Taras Wolansky Russia or agencies allied to it. to S I for more Kerhonkson, New York This was not judged to amount involve the election of such in- than thirty years due in no small to a conspiracy provable in court, dividuals to higher and higher part to James Randi setting me but it is not irrational to suppose political offices. Yesterday it was on this path. I salute him and his Conspiracy Theories that a real conspiracy might have a local sheriff. Today it’s the pres- existed, particularly as testimony memory and hope, as he did, that I was disappointed in Joseph ident. Moreover, such elected science and reason will win out Uscinski’s article on conspiracy could not be obtained from officials are overwhelmingly Re- in the end. theories (“Clear Thinking about some of those centrally involved publicans. Yet Uscinski never asks and in view of the obsequious why Republicans nominate and Martin Zumsteg Conspiracy Theories in Troubled behavior of the Trump adminis- vote for their reality-challenged Jackson, New Jersey Times,” January/February 2021). While his definition of a conspir- tration toward Russia. Kennedy fans, but Democrats do not. In the mid-1970s, the experts at acy is on target, I can agree only assassination conspiracy theories Furthermore, Uscinski’s com- the Stanford Research Institute, with two of his conclusions: that might not have seemed plausible ments on QAnon are unsound. and other scientists elsewhere, conspiracy theories can be very had Oswald not been killed be- He admits that they are scary but supported the ESP abilities of Is- troublesome and that there are fore he could be properly ques- also unpopular, so not a threat. raeli psychic Uri Geller. Barbara conspiracy theories about every- tioned. Neither of these is in Yet even one such elected official Walters, at the time one of the thing. Other than that, it seems the same category as QAnon or can be dangerous. A short time leading journalists in the United to me that recent events suggest alien wreckage, and putting them ago, Tea Party members were dis- States, was completely convinced he is off base in suggesting that under the one umbrella does not missed as buffoons. Today, they Geller was real. conspiracy theories haven’t gone seem to be justified. are mainstream Republicans. And so was I—until I read up in recent decades and that Whether or not the real Rus- Finally, the article maintains a modest little paperback with they just don’t have that much of sian interference changed many that there is nothing right wing the title The Magic of Uri an effect on people. minds may be hard to quantify about QAnon. I first heard of Geller. After reading the book, I While I have not conducted accurately, but, even if its suc- QAnon during the 2016 presi- concluded that, no matter how any polls, seeing the hordes of cess was small, the 2016 election dential campaign. Is Uscinski un- many scientists he convinced, people, including representatives hinged on a remarkably small aware that the designated witch- Geller was a fraud. in Congress, responding vio- number of votes in a few states. in-chief of its fancied pederast/ By the way, the book was lently to theories of a stolen elec- It could still have had a crucial child pornography conspiracy, written not by a scientist but tion, noting references to “deep impact just by damping voter then and now, is Hillary Clinton? by a high-school dropout from state” involvement, and hearing enthusiasm in some groups or Not right wing? Really? raising it in others. Canada who called himself James claims of child massacres being Al Holtzer “The Amazing” Randi. a government ploy suggest that Gerry McClelland St. Louis, Missouri A few years later, nu- conspiracy theories are growing San Marcos, California clear physicist Stanton Friedman and becoming much more ne- I found the beginning of Joseph told us UFOs were, in fact, alien farious. It is not helpful to deny Joseph Uscinski writes about Uscinski’s article very informa- spacecraft. By then I had be- that. There has been no increase truth deniers and conspiracy tive, but toward the end there come a charter subscriber to The in theories about birtherism or theorists and concludes that was plenty of evidence that Us- Zetetic, soon renamed the S- about JFK’s assassination, but the common opinion—that the cinski knew what his polls re-  I. Writers such as we now have numerous conspir- number holding such views is in- ported but not the topic he was Joe Nickell and Philip J. Klass acy theories about the election, creasing and that there are more polling when he wrote, “When didn’t have Friedman’s scientific Biden’s health, and so on ad in- right wingers among them—is we poll on QAnon, we find that credentials, but they convinced finitum. As for whether they have incorrect. He bases these conclu- very few people like it. But we me UFOs are a great many an effect on people, just ask the sions on his own polls. also find that equal numbers These conclusions are flawed. things, but alien spacecraft is not survivors of the attack on Con- of Republicans and Democrats one of them. True, individuals with such ideas claim to support it.“ gress and on our democracy on Just last year, public health ex- have always existed on both the A recent Pew Research poll January 6, a day that will live in perts first told us that using face left and right. However, that is found that eight in ten Demo- infamy. masks against COVID-19 was irrelevant. What troubles the crats who have heard of QAnon useless, even dangerous. But forty Peter Lantos media and public is not their find it bad for this country; one years of James Randi and SI had Lafayette Hill, Pennsylvania existence. Our concerns rather in ten say only somewhat. For

Skeptical Inquirer | May/June 2021 63 Republicans, one in four say it’s understanding who believes what Skeptics and Government of challenging that which must bad for this country while an and why. I have found that people be challenged. As a longtime skeptic who’s sub- equal number say it’s somewhat are often very unscientific when it scribed to your journal for what Timothy P. Scanlon bad. The specific question in the comes to determining what tens must be thirty years, I was on the Hyattsville, Maryland Pew Poll that seemed to be at of millions of people—whom they verge of writing to thank you for odds with a finding in Uscinksi’s don’t know and have never met— the article on James Randi, whose Two readers were clearly outraged believe and why. SI article was phrased as “Do you picture from his presentation at by Kendrick Frazier’s denunci- If conspiracy beliefs were in- think QAnon is a …” and then the National Capital Area Skep- ation of Donald Trump and his creasing, we would expect polls to the respondent would select from tics get-together years ago I still cronies in an earlier editorial show that beliefs are higher now a drop down. These are relative have on my office wall. Or maybe commentary. than in the past. But I don’t find ratios, meaning they’re normal- the fine articles on, for example, Advocacy of science and rea- this, even with QAnon. Also, if ized against magnitude. Surely “The COVID-19 Free Market son is the mission of the Com- QAnon were believed more on the this result has some merit even Experiment” (both in January/ mittee for Skeptical Inquiry and right, we would expect polls to con- with the risk of panel condition- February 2021). But then I read its flagship magazine. Hence, it’s sistently show this (as with climate ing. the letters to the editor in that entirely appropriate for the editor change conspiracy theories). But the I have seen GIFs of swinging issue. And I want to thank you to criticize public figures whose polls are mixed—and more import- gallows following Democratic de- for responding to a few people behavior is antithetical to this ant, partisanship and ideology are feats and JPEGs of crosshairs on who whined that you’d become goal. not significant predictors of QAnon Democratic leaders and read the “political” by challenging the As a longtime SI subscriber, I belief once we account for other rantings of QAnon’s base on var- entity in the White House at the would say that the overwhelming factors. This makes sense given that ious less-than-reputable websites. time. majority of readers appreciated QAnon rhetoric attacks Democrats, While you may be able to find a Among my curiosities of a few the editor’s thoughtful rebuke of Republicans, and Hollywood ce- self-described Democrat claim- too many skeptics is their reluc- the (now former) president’s on- lebrities. The poorly executed polls ing to be in support of QAnon, tance to get, well, “political.” As going irrational behavior. about QAnon, which happen to the numbers are nowhere near a lifelong activist—now elderly, While it would not be feasible have the most sensational results, equivalent. therefore “high risk” of COVID- to catalog all of Donald Trump’s get the most news traction, and I am not arguing that QAnon 19 infection—who lives spittin’ unfortunately people often grab on irresponsible statements, it may is on the rise; I am merely con- distance from the nation’s capi- to the one survey—no matter how be useful to review a few of his cerned that the SI article reported tal, I often challenge fellow skep- poorly done—if it tells them what blatantly antiscientific assertions that Democrats support QAnon tics that, effectively, everything they want to believe. and actions: as much as Republicans. This is political. And, as I infer from As I have long expressed, con- • He declared that global warm- message is farcical. your response to those who are ing was a “Chinese hoax,” rejecting Uscinski engages in false spiracy beliefs can detrimentally influence actions, and when politi- critical of your politicality, what the scientific consensus on climate equivalences about the subjective antiscience and health-threaten- change, and he withdrew the United comparison of modern conspira- cians use conspiracy theories, those harms multiply. But that doesn’t ing irresponsibility of the (now States from the Paris accords. cies with past conspiracies. Coro- former) regime is not “political.” • He said that the coronavirus navirus conspiracies are harmful mean that everyone believes every conspiracy theory they encounter. Indeed, it extends to emails was a “little flu” that would “magi- because they are used to flout And just because Trump and other frequently received by our friends cally disappear” or “miraculously go science-based guidance that saves leaders engage in conspiracy theo- at Skeptics Guide to the Universe: away,” when he knew it was actually lives. ries doesn’t mean that everyone be- a few weeks ago, when the Pu- a deadly disease. David Johnson lieves conspiracy theories more now tin-asset’s COVID-19 irrespon- • At a news conference with the Edina, Minnesota than in the past. The undermining sibility was raised ever so lightly, coronavirus task force, he recom- of democracy by Trump should be audience members complained mended an unproven drug and asked Joseph Uscinski responds: condemned, as should the Capitol that they’re getting “partisan.” if injection or ingestion of household It’s easy to believe that our politi- riot. However, rather than through Hmmm. A person in an ex- disinfectants could kill the virus. cal opponents are a bunch of kooky some “bottom up” process in which tremely powerful position, who • He repeatedly claimed that he conspiracy theorists. It’s also easy to the masses became more conspir- takes less responsibility for any- really won the 2020 presidential elec- believe that people are more con- acy minded, the riot and the voter thing than someone still enrolled tion but was denied victory because spiracy minded than ever before. fraud beliefs associated with it were in a daycare center would take … of massive voter fraud, even though That’s why my talk to CSI and “top down,” driven by President the same person who threatens his attorney general said it wasn’t this article it was based on wasn’t Trump and his allies in Congress the nation’s democracy, making true. about conspiracy theories per se but and their media. My talk reported claims to which all the evidence • In fact, neither Trump nor his rather the misconceptions about the conclusions of careful data col- indicates the opposite … deluded loyalists ever presented one them. I argued that we should not lection and analysis; if the evidence And it’s wrong—“political”? shred of documentation supporting rely on our animosity toward our changes, then my conclusions will “partisan”?—to challenge that the fraud charges, offering only un- political opponents or on clickbaity too. But misunderstanding the person, even as a skeptic? substantiated allegations that were headlines to understand conspiracy prevalence, causes, or influence of Am I missing something? rejected more than fifty times by beliefs. Just as there are scientific conspiracy theories does nothing Thanks again for challenging courts. methods for studying other topics, to help us combat their harmful those who purport to be skeptics Further evidence of Donald there are scientific methods for effects. or even “educated” who are afraid Trump’s disdain for scientific

64 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

truth comes from his cronies, tual humility (SI, September/Oc- recognize their limitations. There is much more to be said an assortment of quacks, char- tober 2020), in which he urged I believe there is a “Goldi- here, but my main issue is with latans, and supremacists that he skeptics to adopt such humility locks zone” in skepticism that the statement that “the Bible is appointed to inform his decisions as a unifying principle. Anyone lies in between belief and doubt: fiction.” This sounds to me like with their “expertise.” Just three who has not read it, please do so. where you are both skeptical either polemics or ignorance of examples of many: The article reminded me of the about why you should believe a what the Bible really is. The Bible • His first national security ad- 1996 World Skeptics Congress in proposition and skeptical about is not one thing; it is a collection viser promoted a bizarre Satanic pe- Buffalo when CSI Founder Paul why you should not believe the of many genres written over a pe- dophilia/sex trafficking conspiracy Kurtz urged a “kinder, gentler” proposition. From here you allow theory. (He subsequently admitted skepticism. I’ve never known the data to point to a conclusion, riod of around 1,000 years. There lying to the FBI and suggested that anyone to be such an advocate even if it disagrees with your hy- are poems, folklore, legends, phil- Trump declare martial law.) for science and empirical val- pothesis. osophical speculation on origins, • His presidential counselor and idation yet be as gentle in the ethics, history, pseudo-history, spokesperson formulated the unsci- process as Scott. He concludes Gary McDermott letters, sermons, dreams, visions, Chittenango, New York entific concept of “alternative facts.” the intellectual humility article etc. And yes, there is fiction, as • His economic adviser lectured thusly: “If our analysis has merit, in the tale of Esther. To say that the public on infectious disease re- all skeptics should strive to in- the Bible is fiction is to buy into search methodology. (He later wrote culcate a thoroughgoing sense the fundamentalists’ assertion a report summarizing false 2020 elec- of intellectual humility in them- Bible Is Many Things tion fraud allegations.) selves and others and avoid the that it is literally true, even if you I agree with Robert Saunders’s are asserting that such a view is There are many more exam- tempting allure of intellectual letter supporting evolution wrong. The point is that the “fact ples. arrogance.” I will not only take (January/February 2021), but Donald Trump’s disturbed this to heart but will use it as a I have issues with some of his or fiction” argument regarding thinking was an insult to the guiding message for the rest of statements. For one thing, I and the Bible is completely off base. American people, most of whom my professional career. virtually all physicists would take Creationists are wrong not just expect their leaders to be careful Bryan Farha umbrage at his assertion that because their science is wrong and accurate in making scientific Oklahoma City, Oklahoma evolution is “the only scientific but also because their biblical statements and rely on legitimate theory that is provably correct.” scholarship is wrong! If you enter experts from relevant disciplines. In regard to Lilienfeld’s article Indeed? What about the many the debate on the “fact or fiction” It can be concluded that Ken- on intellectual humility, here’s a well-supported theories in phys- basis, you are wrong too. drick Frazier was fully justified in mental trick inspired by James ics and chemistry? And what does criticizing the former president “The Amazing” Randi. I have “provably correct” even mean in Charles E. Hawkins and his advisers for behavior that taken to heart his reminder that empirical science? Fort Thomas, Kentucky is inimical to the values of science “You can be fooled.” There is a and rationality. certain irony to embracing this Brian Bolton idea, and perhaps it reveals a [FEEDBACK Georgetown, Texas penalty of intellectual corruption to the egotist (and we all have egotism to some greater or lesser The letters column is a forum on mat ters raised in previous degree). If you are too egotistical issues. Letters should be no longer than 225 words. and believe that you can never be Due to the volume of letters we receive, not all can be Scott Lilienfeld’s Humility published. Send letters as email text (not attachments) to fooled, then you will be less likely [email protected]. In the subject line, provide your The death of Scott O. Lilien- to check to see if you are being surname and informative identification, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones feld (obituary, January/February fooled and, hence, be more sus- evolution article.” Include your name and address at the end of the 2021) shocked me like no other ceptible to being fooled. Contra letter. You may also mail your letter to the editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, since the death of Carl Sagan. this, if you have intellectual hu- Albuquerque, NM 87122. Scott was one of the most gen- mility and consciously maintain erous people I’ve ever known. He the concept that “I can some- was a mentor to me and let me times be fooled,” then by having consult with him on many occa- this skeptical perspective as one sions about academics and clin- of your many analytical tools, ical work—no matter how busy you will be open to the possibility he was. Even though his schedule of being fooled, and therefore less was packed, he wrote a superb likely to be fooled. recommendation when I was Although I am not an expert considered for a campus scholar- in any field, it’s my impression ship award (I was named recipi- that, of all people, experts should ent—largely due to his letter). be the ones most likely to realize I was most moved by his ab- what they do not know about solutely superb article on intellec- their specific field and therefore

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66 Volume 45 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer

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CFI SPAIN Madrid, Spain Luis Alfonso Gamez [email protected] Perseverence Rover’s View from Surface of Mars

NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover acquired this image on March 25, 2021(Sol 33), using its onboard Left Navigation Camera (Navcam). The camera is located high on the rover’s mast and aids in driving. Perseverance, launched July 30, 2020, landed successfully on Mars on February 18, 2021, to great excitement and acclaim back on Earth. Over the next year, it will be exploring what seems to be an ancient river delta near its landing site in the twenty-eight-mile-wide Jezero Crater, just north of the Martian equator.

IMAGE CREDIT: NASA/JPL-CALTECH