Appendix C Forecast Technical Report Page C-1

C.1 Introduction In the forecast, the GA aircraft and operations were The purpose of this appendix is to provide more analyzed for each of the following aircraft categories: detailed information on the assumptions and • Single Engine Piston (SEP) methodologies used to develop the forecasts presented in Chapter 3: Forecast. These forecasts • Multi-Engine Piston (MEP) are used identify future capacity shortfalls, calculate • Turboprop (TP) future costs, estimate future revenue streams, and • Jet (JET) measure and enhance the overall benefit of aviation to the state. • Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) This appendix is organized as follows: baseline • Military (MIL) activity levels are established, and parameters that • Other (OTH) such as helicopters and gliders potentially have an impact on air traffic level are Data for MSP and the MAC relievers were obtained discussed. Major forecast assumptions are then from the previous Long Term Comprehensive Plans discussed. Forecast passenger demand and (LTCPs) prepared by HNTB in 2006 and 2009. The commercial operations are estimated afterwards. based aircraft and operations at the six MAC reliever Cargo volume and operations are then projected airports were adjusted to match the state survey employing various forecasting techniques. The next results. However, after consulting with MAC staff, the section focuses on future GA fleet mix and statistics for MSP were kept without adjustment as operations. The last section provides peak hour they are believed to better reflect current operations. activity forecasts. Figure C-1 and Figure C-2 illustrate the total base year aircraft and operation statistics at system C.2 Base Year Activity Level airports. A detailed based aircraft breakdown is Base year passenger enplanements and airline shown in Table C-1 on page C-33. operations were obtained from the FAA TAF, BTS T100 and airport records. The cargo statistics were The state inventory survey also provides operations primarily based on the BTS T100 and airport records. by type (local and itinerant) and purpose (business, The base year passenger and cargo activity levels leisure and training). To assess facility requirements were established by compiling data from these data in the future, it is necessary to estimate operations sources. Base year GA data for system airports were generated by each aircraft category. provided by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (DOT) through an inventory survey. APPENDIX C FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT PAGE C-1 Figure C-1: Number of Based Aircraft in Minnesota – Base Year 2010 Sources: MnDOT Office of Aeronautics 2011 Inventory Survey and Airport Database & HNTB analysis APPENDIX C FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT PAGE C-2 Figure C-2: Number of GA Operations in Minnesota – Base Year 2010 Sources: MnDOT Office of Aeronautics 2011 Inventory Survey and Airport Database & HNTB analysis APPENDIX C FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT PAGE C-3 To convert the number of based aircraft to operations, dropped sharply and in turn significantly impacted an operation rate table was developed. The operation airlines’ profitability. Coupled with record high oil rate is the ratio of operations to based aircraft for prices, the airlines faced pressure from both weaker each category. The operation rate for each aircraft demand and higher operating costs. In response, category was calculated using the Federal Aviation several airlines filed for bankruptcy and completed Administration (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi several mergers that consolidated both legacy and Activity survey (GAATA)i. This rate was multiplied by low-cost carriers. Subsequently, their networks were the based aircraft to estimate operations. The results re-evaluated and system wide frequency and route were then adjusted proportionally to match the reductions were made. Airlines also turned to inventory survey operations at each system airport. additional revenue streams such as baggage, meal, and priority seating assignment fees. As a result, Table C-2 on page C-34 demonstrates the baseline most major airlines were able to weather the most operation breakdowns at each system airport. It also recent recession. includes operations by trip type including local operations and itinerant operations and purpose Due to the factors mentioned above, the 2006 including business, leisure and training operations. Systems Plan markedly overestimated passenger enplanements in 2010 compared to actual 2010 The inventory survey gathered percentage by trip enplanements. type and purpose data for most airports. For airports where such information is missing, the following C.3.2 Metropolitan Airport Council (MAC) Regional assumptions were made: First, for facilities without Aviation System Plan based aircraft, all operations were assumed to be GA activity and airline service were also forecasted in itinerant leisure trips. Airports without based aircraft the MAC Regional Aviation System Planiv for MSP, tend to be very small, and usually cannot six MAC administrated reliever airports, as well as accommodate the higher performance aircraft favored South St. Paul, Surfside Seaplane Base, and Wipline by business general aviation. Second, the FAA Seaplane Base. Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)ii provides historical and forecast data for airports in the National Plan of Forecasts on MSP and other six MAC administrated Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). If the airport in reliever airports were adopted from the MAC Long question had local / itinerant operation breakdowns Term Comprehensive Plans (LTCPs). Other GA from the FAA TAF, they were used. Finally, if the airports forecasts applied a bottom-up approach for airport did not have local / itinerant operation each individual airport after reviewing existing Master breakdowns from the TAF, then the overall average Plans, FAA TAF, and State Aviation Systems Plan. breakdown from the other system airports was The LTCPs for the reliever airports were updated in applied to the airport. two phases. The first study that includes Crystal, Airlake, and Lake Elmo was completed in 2006. C.3 Previous Forecasts Anoka County, Flying Cloud and St. Paul downtown C.3.1 2006 State Aviation Systems Plan were analyzed in the second report in 2009. The most recent state aviation system plan for The first report was written before the oil price hike, Minnesota was completed in 2006iii. Since then the the financial market crash, and the subsequent aviation industry has witnessed one of the most recession. At the height of a long expansion, the U.S. severe recessions in history. Passenger demand economic outlook was optimistic in 2006. Oil prices APPENDIX C FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT PAGE C-4 were on the rise but below $80 per barrel. As a result, Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors the 2006 report over estimates the aviation activity Historical records and future forecasts of Minnesota level at most airports. state population are available from both the When the second study was completed in 2009, the Minnesota State Demographer’s Officevi and Woods recession was ending and oil prices were well below & Poole’s Complete Economic and Demographic the historical peak in 2008. However, the U.S. Data Source (CEDDS) databasevii. Figure C-3 shows economic recovery has been slower than anticipated two data sources have perfectly aligned historical since the technical end of the recession. Oil prices figures and slightly different forecasts. The Minnesota climbed to more than $80 per barrel again in 2010 State Demographer’s Office predicts higher growth in after dropping to around $40 per barrel in April 2009v. the near term whereas the CEDDS produces higher All the factors above contributed to an optimistic forecasts in the long run. The forecast from the based aircraft and operations forecast in the LTCPs. Minnesota State Demographer’s Office is adopted in this study as the state agency processes better C.4 Passenger Enplanements and Commercial knowledge on local trends and constraints. The Operations Forecast average annual growth rate from 2011 to 2030 from Passenger enplanements and operations at airline both forecasts is around 0.96%. service airports are influenced by local socio- The Demographer’s Office only produces forecasts economics, airport service characteristics, airline on population and labor force. Therefore other key strategy, and other external factors including socio-economic parameters such as total income, per convenience and security. A combination of these capita income and employment were obtained from factors was considered in the Plan to examine the the Woods & Poole CEDDS database and the Bureau potential correlation between passenger of Economic Analysis (BEA)viii. The Woods & Poole enplanements and independent factors. data is adjusted with the latest BEA statistics at the C.4.1 Relevant Factors base year and horizon years. Figure C-4 and Figure Key factors determining air passenger activity are the C-5 show the CEDDS historical and projected total economy which determines the size of the potential income and employment information for Minnesota. market and the cost of the service which determines From 2011 to 2030, state personal income is how much of the potential demand is actually expected to grow at an average of 2.18% each year realized. Other important factors are competition, according to the Woods & Poole forecasts. For the whether from other airports, other transportation same planning period, the state employment figure is modes, or other options for the expenditure of projected to increase

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